A STUDY ON THE MINIMUM NIGHT FLOW TO ESTIMATE LOSS OF WATER

Abstract

Minimum night flow (MNF) is a common method used to evaluate water loss in a water network. In
2010, from a study it was estimated that the average percentage of non-revenue water for the state of
Perak in Malaysia was 29.4 %, a figure which resulted in major financial, supply, and pressure losses,
as well as excessive energy consumption. Simillalrly, it was estimated that in Hyderabad region an
average of 35 – 40 % was found to be loss from the main water line to the end user through leakage.
Hence, In this study, a statistical analysis of the water distribution network and a modeling using
WaterGEMS of MNF were carried out to estimate water loss in Sanjeev Reddy Nagar, Hyderabad. Flow
and pressure for 3 zones were monitored for 24 h using Prime Works software. Eight study zones
(DMA) were randomly selected from three zones. MNF was screened within the time band of 1:00 am
to 5:00 am. A total of 20 factors for physical, hydraulic, and operational variables were selected and
correlated with MNF (L/s). Multiple linear regression was used as a statistical technique to determine
factors that contributed to MNF (L/s). Consequently, pipe length (m) and pipe age (year) were the main
contributors to MNF (L/s). The statistical model was finalized with R-Square values. Results of the
study revealed that 84.9 % of MNF frequencies for the eight study areas were found at the time band
2:15 am to 4:15 am; therefore, the mean MNF for each zone in 2010 was determined to be between
1:00 am and 5:00 am. Statistical analyses showed that number of connections, total length of pipe,
weighted mean of age of pipe, and type of pipe (100 mm asbestos cement) contributed to MNF.
Moreover, approximately 97.5 % of registered repairs were conducted on pipes with small diameters of
less than or equal to 50 mm. Pipes within this size range are usually used as service pipes and service
connections.
Methodology:
Out of 3 zones, Eight DMAs were randomly selected on the basis of detailed survey. The data for 8
DMAs were chosen using the “random” function of Excel 2007 and was sorted. Using Prime Works
(version: 1.5.57.0), data of flow and pressure during 2010 for the 8 DMAs were collected from the
records of the water network in the study areas and HWMSSB. Flow and pressure were monitored
every 15 min for 24 h. Automatic and continuous monitoring were achieved through the
implementation of DMA management using an electronic data logger. The pressure entering the zones
was controlled through PRV. Via Prime Works, data of flow and pressure were plotted. Sorting and
filtering the recorded data of minimum flow for 8 DMAs for time interval between 1:00 am to 5:00
am was carried out as MNF using Microsoft Office Excel 2007. The MNF and the related time were
screened in the time band 1:00 am to 5:00 am. For each day, one recorded data of MNF in the time
band 1:00 am to 5:00 am were reported. The frequency of the MNF’s occurrence in 30 study areas
was analyzed using Minitab version 16 for 15 min each to investigate the time band of the MNF; one
frequency equals one data per day. Fig. 3 demonstrates the frequency of MNF in 30 zones in 2010.
The total frequencies (days) was 4,202. Based on the frequency of time for the MNF, the mean MNF
for each zone in 2010 was determined to be between 1:00 am and 5:00 am. The mean of pressure
during that time period was determined. According to the LAP, the characteristic of the pipe networks
for particular zones was identified; mainly, the total length of pipe network (meter), number of
connections, age of pipes (year), and type of reticulation pipe (Table 2). Each pipe in the network has
different ages; hence, the term weighted mean is the best estimate of the mean age of a particular
zone. The pipes with more length weighted more higher than those with fewer lengths (Spatz 2010).
Conclusions:
1. The relationship between the mean of pressure and MNF mean (L/s) was not significant (p value
0.36). This result may be explained by the use of the PRV. The correlation test proves that the
relationship between the pipe diameter D100 mm (p value 0.001) and MNF mean (L/s) was
significant.
2. The relationship between all types of AC pipes (p value 0.009) and MNF mean (L/s) was
significant. The relationship between the type of 100 mmAC pipe (p value 0.006) and MNF mean
(L/s) was significant. Approximately 97.5 % of the registered pipe repairs were found with small
diameter pipes of less than or equal to 50 mm, and approximately 97.5 % of the registered pipe
repairs in the service pipe and service connection.
3. Based on the MLR analysis, the total length of pipe network (meter) and weighted mean age of
pipe are the significant predictor factors for MNF mean (L/s).
4. The R-square value of the model was 0.706 which indicates that the prediction model of MNF
mean (L/s) fits well with the data. One meter increase in reticulation length significantly increases
the MNFmean by 7.97*10−4 L/s. An increase in weighted mean age of the pipe by 1 year
significantly increases the MNF mean by 0.112 L/s. Thus, the final model could be improved to
R-square 0.779.
5. The research results show an effective improvement in the management of WDSs, which could
result in financial, environmental and social benefits.