CAUSAL COMPARATIVE STUDIES (EX-POST FACTO)

By

Bello, M. B. Ph.D
Department of Social Science Education
Faculty of Education
University of Ilorin

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 CAUSAL COMPARATIVE STUDIES (EXPOST FACTO)
Causal comparative research is a non experimental research design in which preexisting
groups are compared to see whether some independent variables has caused a change in a
dependent variable. Salkind (2010) sees causal comparative studies as a form of design
that seeks to find relationship between independent and dependent variables after an
action or event has already occurred. The researcher’s goal is to determine whether the
independent variable affected the outcome (dependent variable), by comparing two or
more groups of subjects. It is a type of study that can masquerade as a genuine
experiment. Gall, Gall and Borg (2006) described it as a study in which the researcher
attempts to determine the cause or reason for pre-existing differences in groups or
individuals. It is also known as ex post facto research (after the fact) since both the effect
and the alleged cause have already occurred and must be studied in retrospect. The basic
casual comparative approach involves starting with an effect and seeking possible causes.

It is a study which investigate possible cause-and-effect relationships by observing an

existing condition or state of affairs and searching back in time for plausible causal factor.
In effect, researchers ask themselves what factor seem to be associated with certain
occurrences, or conditions, or aspects of behaviour. Ex post facto research, then, is a
method of teasing out possible antecedents of events that have happened and cannot,
therefore, be controlled, engineered or manipulated by the investigator (Cooper and
Schindler 2001: 136). In this type of research study, researchers can report only what has
happened or what is happening, by trying to hold factors constant by careful attention to
the sampling. For instance, imagine a situation in which there has been a dramatic increase
in the number of fatal road accidents in a particular locality, then researcher is called in to
investigate and establish cause (s) of the accidents. Naturally, there is no way in which the
researcher can study the actual accidents because they have happened; nor can the
researcher turn to technology for a video replay of the incidents. What the researcher can
do, however, is attempt a reconstruction by studying the statistics, examining the accident

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spots, and taking note of the statements given by victims and witnesses. In this way the
researcher will be in a position to identify possible determinants of the accidents. These
may include excessive speed, poor road conditions, careless driving, frustration, inefficient
vehicles, the effects of drugs or alcohol and so on. From the foregoing, the researcher can
formulate hypotheses as to the likely causes and after the hypothesis would have been
tested he may give his recommendations which may include improving road conditions, or
lowering the speed limit, or increasing police surveillance, for instance. The point of
interest to us is that in identifying the causes retrospectively, the expert adopts a causal
comparative (ex post facto) perspective.

Ex post facto research is a method that can also be used instead of an experiment,
to test hypotheses about cause and effect in situations where it is unethical to control or
manipulate the dependent variable. For example, let us say that we wished to test the
hypothesis that family violence caused poor school performance. Here, ethically speaking,
it should not expose a student to family violence. However, one could put students into
two groups, matched carefully on a range of factors, with one group comprising those who
have experienced family violence and the other whose domestic circumstances are more
acceptable. If the hypothesis is supportable then the researcher should be able to discover
a difference in school performance between the two groups when the other variables are
matched or held as constant as possible.

Also causal comparative study provides a viable form of research that can be
conducted when other methods will not work. There are particular independent variables
that are not capable of being manipulated, such includ gender, ethnicity, socioeconomic
level, educational level and religious preferences. For instance, if a researcher intends to
examine whether ethnicity affects self-esteem in a rural secondary school, he /she cannot
manipulate a subject’s (student) ethnicity. This independent variable has already been
decided, so the researcher must look for another method of determining cause. In this
case, the researcher will group students according to their ethnic group and then
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administer self-esteem assessments. Although the researcher may find that one ethnic
group has higher scores than another, he/she must proceed with caution when
interpreting the results.

These are some examples questions that might be addressed using casual comparative
study:

i. Do children with a history of abuse have lower levels of academic achievement

than children with no history.

ii. Do students who are retained a class have high school graduation rate different
from those who are not retained?

iii. Are women who attend a single-sex secondary schools more likely to attain
leadership positions after graduation than women who attend coeducation
secondary schools

Note that in these questions, we are attempting to see whether one variable
(abuse, retention, working or type of secondary school) cause a change in another variable
(academic achievement, graduation rate or leadership). However, we cannot ethnically
manipulate the variables that are thought to cause change. Casual comparative design
permit the study of the effects of variables that have already occurred or are difficult to
manipulate experimentally with human research participants.

TYPES OF CAUSAL-COMPARATIVE STUDY

There are two types of causal-comparative research designs:
i. Retrospective causal-comparative study; and
ii. Prospective causal-comparative study.

Retrospective causal-comparative study: requires that a researcher begins investigating a

particular question when the effects have already occurred and the researcher attempts to
determine whether one variable may have influenced another variable. In essence, this
type of causal-comparative study establishes the cause after the occurrence of incidence
and effect. Retrospective causal comparative studies are more common in educational
research.
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Prospective causal-comparative study: occurs when a researcher initiates a study
beginning with the causes and is determined to investigate the effects of a condition. In
essence, this type of causal-comparative study establishes the cause after the occurrence
of incidence and effect.

Steps in Conducting a Causal-Comparative Study

The following steps, as described by Lodico, Spaulding & Voegtle (2006), should be
adhered to by researchers conducting a causal-comparative study.
i. Select a topic
ii. Review the literature
iii. Develop a research hypotheses
iv. Define the independent and dependent variables
v. Select participants and control extraneous variable(s)
vi. Select measurement instrument (especially proforma)
vii. Collect data with appropriate method and instrument.
viii. Analyses data with appropriate statistical technique based on data collected.
ix. Interpret the results

Step One: Select a Topic

In casual comparative study the topic is likely to be based on past experiences that
are thought to have a strong effect on participants’ later behaviour. Here is an example of
a topic
“The Relationship between years of experience and job satisfaction”

Step Two: Identify Variables

The researcher reviews literature to identify what previous researchers have
revealed about the impact of the past experience on later behaviours. Potential
extraneous variables might also be identified through the review of literature. For

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example, since the topic of discussion is relationship between years of experience and job
satisfaction”, the researcher is excepted to review related literature on the years and
experiences and job satisfaction from researchers who have conducted studies in this area
in the past. By doing this, the researcher might find useful information about the method
used to select samples in the past studies, how the past researchers have formed their
research questions, or how dependent variables are measured that is statistical tools that
was employed in the conduct of the research.

Step Three: Develop a Research Hypothesis

Research hypothesis for casual comparative study take a form that is similar to
experimental research hypothesis. They both include an independent and dependent
variable. Causal-comparative research hypotheses should describe the expected impact of
the independent variable on the dependent variable. The research hypothesis would state
the expected causal relationship between the independent variables. For examples:

“Null hypothesis: There is no significant effect of teachers’ income and their

performance.

Alternative Hypothesis: There is a significant effect of teachers’ income and their

performance.

Step Four: Define the variable (Independent and Dependant)

In causal comparative study, the independent variable describes the different past
experiences of the participants. It is important to be clear about the exact difference in the
experiences of the two groups being compared. Like in this example;
Variables: Dependent—Job satisfaction
Independent –teachers’ income

Step Five: Select Participants and control extraneous variables

In causal-comparative research participants are already organized in groups. These
groups, defined by Gay et al. (2006) as comparison groups, are selected because one group
does not possess a characteristic or experience possessed by the second group (this

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characteristic or experience is the independent variable that the researcher plans to study)
or the two groups differ in the amount of a characteristic that they share (this, once again,
is the independent variable being studied). A situations in which two groups differ in a
variety of characteristics, researchers cannot be certain whether the independent variable
affected the groups or whether the groups were impacted more so by extraneous
variables. Researchers conducting causal-comparative studies can employ a variety of
methods to control for extraneous variables. Such methods, often used for experimental
research, include matching, compare groups that are homogenous with regards to the
extraneous variable, creating subgroups, and the use of a statistical procedure called an
analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) to analyze study data. Using such controls require that
researchers obtain measures of specific extraneous variables of concern. The most
common method employed to account for extraneous variables in causal-comparative
research is the usage of statistical tests such as multiple regression.
Step Six: Select Instruments to Measure Variables
As with all of types of quantitative research, causal-comparative research requires
researchers to select instruments that are reliable. Thus, will allow the researchers to draw
valid inferences or conclusions. The instrument for collecting data in this type of study
could be any form of assessment. After a researcher has selected a reliable and valid
instrument, data for the study can be collected.

Step Seven: Collecting Data

In a causal comparative study researchers are not required to implement a
treatment as the treatment has already occurred. That means there is no treatment to
administer. Therefore, once the sample and measures have been selected, carrying out the
study simply involved obtaining data from the selected participants on the measures.

Step Eight: Data analysis

Once the data have been collected, the researcher analyzes the data. There are
many methods of analyzing the data obtained. Inferential statistics are then used to

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determine whether the means “for the groups are significantly different from each other”
(Lodico, Spaulding & Voegtle, 2006: 214). When using inferential statistics, the researcher
hopes to demonstrate that if effect exists between the independent and dependent
variables. The most commonly used methods for casual comparative study are the chi-
square test, paired-samples and independent t tests and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) or
Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA). Following the example of The Relationship between
years of experience and job satisfaction, mean Rating can be used – this would be use for
rating Job satisfaction for high experience and low experience subjects are compared using
t-test, ANOVA among others. Rejection of the null hypothesis supports the alternative
hypothesis that years of experience result in increased job satisfaction. Note also that any
statistical tools that can test for relationship could also be used.

Step Nine: Interpret Results

When reporting results, researchers who have used causal-comparative research
methods must be cautious when stating that the independent variable has caused a
specific effect to occur. Since casual-comparative research cannot definitively determine
that one variable has caused something to occur, researchers should instead report the
findings of causal-comparative studies as a possible effect or possible cause of an
occurrence.

ADVANTAGES OF CASUAL COMPARATIVE (Ex post facto) STUDY

Among the advantages of the approach are the following:

i. It research meets an important need of the researcher where more rigorous
experimental approach is not possible. In the case of the alleged relationship
between smoking and lung cancer, for instance, this cannot be tested
experimentally (at least as far as human beings are concerned).
ii. The method yields useful information concerning the nature of phenomena –
what goes with what and under what conditions. In this way, causal comparative
research is a valuable exploratory tool.
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 iii. Improvements in statistical techniques and general methodology have made
casual comparative (ex post facto) designs more defensible.
iv. In some ways and in certain situations the method is more useful than the
experimental method, especially where the setting up of the latter would
introduce a note of artificiality into research proceedings.
v. Casual comparative research is particularly appropriate when simple cause-and-
effect relationships are being explored.
vi. The method can give a sense of direction and provide a fruitful source of
hypotheses that can subsequently be tested by the more rigorous

DISADVANTAGES OF CASUAL COMPARATIVE STUDY

Among the limitations and weaknesses of ex post facto designs as highlighted by Spector
(1993: 43) the following may be mentioned:
i. There is the problem of lack of control in that the researcher is unable to
manipulate the independent variable or to randomize subjects.
ii. One cannot know for certain whether the causative factor has been included or
even identified.
iii. It may be that no single factor is the cause.
iv. A particular outcome may result from different causes on different occasions.
v. When a relationship has been discovered, there is the problem of deciding
which is the cause and which the effect; the possibility of reverse causation must
be considered.
vi. The relationship of two factors does not establish cause and effect.
vii. Classifying subjects into dichotomous groups can be problematic.
viii. There is the difficulty of interpretation and the danger of the post-hoc
assumption being made, that is, believing that because X precedes O, X causes
O.

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ix. It often bases its conclusions on too limited a sample or number of occurrences.
x. It frequently fails to single out the really significant factor or factors, and fails to
recognize that events have multiple rather than single causes.
xi. As a method it is regarded by some as too flexible.
xii. It lacks nullifiability and confirmation.
xiii. The sample size might shrink massively with multiple matching.

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