Professional Documents
Culture Documents
eqspertis azri
giorgi sanikiZe
44
2015
publikacia daibeWda amerikis SeerTebuli
Statebis saelCos finansuri mxardaWeriT.
ISSN 1512-4835
ISBN 978-9941-0-8155-2
axlo aRmosavleTis regionSi dReisaTvis ara mar
to mravali, xSir SemTxvevaSi xangrZlivi istoriis mqone,
gadauWreli problemaa dagrovili, aramed is aseve warmoad
gens saerTaSoriso terorizmis mTavar masazrdoebel wya
ros. ukanasknel xanebSi mTavar problemad iqca e.w. „isla
muri saxelmwifos“ sakiTxi. winamdebare naSromis ZiriTad
mizans swored am saxelmwifos arsis, misi arsebobis ganma
pirobebeli faqtorebisa da samomavlo perspeqtivebis Ses
wavla warmoadgens. amasTan, xazgasasmelia, rom „islamuri
saxelmwifos“ Sesaxeb saubari gamoricxulia axlo aRmosav
leTSi arsebuli sxva dapirispirebebis, regionis, dasavleTis
qveynebisa Tu ruseTis interesebis, dRes gamokveTili „para
doqsuli aliansebis“ ganxilvis gareSe. bunebrivia, gverds
ver avuvliT kavkasiasac, sadac islamuri radikalizmisaTvis
noyieri niadagi arsebobs.
3
da „erayis islamuri saxelmwifos“ Seqmna, romlis erT-erTi
winamZRolic al-baRdadi gaxda. 2010 wlis aprilSi aSS-isa
da erayis erToblivi samxedro operaciis Sedegad al-masri
mokles.2 amis Semdeg al-baRdadi „saxelmwifos“ erTpirovnu
li lideri gaxda.
2011 wlis martSi siriaSi samoqalaqo omis gaCaRebis
Semdeg, agvistoSi, al-baRdadim iq sakuTari mebrZolebi gaag
zavna siriaSi. maT SeuerTdnen sirieli radikali islamistebi
da Seqmnes e.w. „al-nusras fronti“. TandaTanobiT maT kont
roli daamyares siriis sunitebiT dasaxlebul regionebze
(ar-rakka, idlibi, deir ez-zori da alepo).3
2013 wlis aprilSi gakeTda gancxadeba „erayis islam
uri saxelmwifosa“ da siriaSi moqmedi „al-nusras“ frontis
gaerTianebis Sesaxeb. am axalma gaerTianebam miiRo „erayisa
da siriis islamuri saxalifos“ (esis) an „erayisa da levantis4
islamuri saxalifos“ (elis) saxelwodeba. (arab. „ad-daula
al-islami¡a fi’l-‘irak va-S-Sam“; akronimi _ „da’iS“, „da’eS“).
2014 wlis maisSi esis-is mebrZolebma daikaves erayis
mniSvnelovani qalaqebi mosuli da TiqriTi. swored aqedan
Caeyara safuZveli „saxelmwifos“ mier teritoriebis kont
rols. male esis-is xelSi gadavida siriis araerTi regionic,
moiSala saxelmwifo sazRvari siriasa da erays Soris.
2014 wlis 29 ivniss jgufma sakuTari Tavi gamoacxada
msoflio saxalifod, lideri abu baqr al-baRdadi ki xalifa
gaxda. oficialur saxelwodebad amieridan „islamuri saxelm
wifo“ (ad-daula al-islami¡a) iqca. saxelmwifos gamocxade
bidan meore dResve 1,2 mln erayeli iZulebuli gaxda saku
Tari saxli daetovebina. am periodamde bevri araferi iyo
cnobili „islamuri saxelmwifos“ Sesaxeb. bunebrivia, media
did yuradRebas aqcevda amerikelTa brZolas teroristebis
winaaRmdeg eraySi, magram „saxelmwifo“ am TvalsazrisiT
praqtikulad ucnobi iyo.5 mdgomareoba radikalurad icvle
ba 2014 wlis agvistodan, internetis qseliT „islamuri sa
xelmwifos“ mier masobrivi mkvlelobebis amsaxveli kadrebis
gavrcelebis Sedegad.
2014 wlis seqtemberSi aSS-is centralurma sadazvervo
sammarTvelom gamoacxada, rom „islamuri saxelmwifos“ meo
marTa ricxvi 31,500-s aWarbebda da yoveldRiurad izrdebo
4
da. swored am periodidan daiwyo aSS-m sahaero dartymebis
ganxorcieleba is-is poziciebze. Tumca, am pirvel operaciebs
gansakuTrebuli ziani ar miuyenebia „saxelmwifosaTvis“ da
is kvlavac ganagrZobda gafarToebas. 2015 wlis martisTvis
jgufi akontrolebda teritorias aTi milioni mosaxleobiT
siriasa da eraySi6 (2014 wlis dasawyisisTvis „saxelmwifos“
mier kontrolirebad teritoriebze mosaxleobis ricxvi 1,5
milions ar aRemateboda).
is-s male gamouCdnen mxardamWerebi islamuri sam
yaros sxva regionebSic. 2015 wlis ivnisisaTvis is-s ofi
cialuri ganStoebebi hqonda libiaSi, egvipteSi (sinas naxe
varkunZuli), saudis arabeTSi, iemenSi, alJirSi, avRaneTSi,
pakistanSi, nigeriasa da Crd. kavkasiaSi. erayisa da siriis
garda, is-i realurad teritoriebs akontrolebs mxolod
sinasa da libiaSi. libiaSi Seqmnilia „kirenaikis provincia“
(barkas vilaieTi) aRmosavleT libiis qalaq dernaSi. aq gad
moRebulia siriasa da eraySi islamuri saxelmwifos marTvis
modeli. is-is wevrebi arian marokoSi, libanSi, iordaniaSi,
TurqeTSi, israelsa da palestinaSi, magram aq ar arsebobs
oficialuri ganStoebebi.
am mokle istoriul eqskurss ki davasrulebT im axa
li realobis xazgasmiT, rac mohyva „islamuri saxelmwifos“
„Seqmnas“ („Seqmnasac“ brWyalebSi vsvamT im faqtidan gamom
dinare, rom saqme exeba ufro warmosaxviT, vidre realurad
arsebul, saxelmwifos atributebis mqone (Tundac rom saqme
exebodes adreuli Sua saukuneebis islamuri saxelmwifos
models), teritoriebis myarad makontrolebel warmonaqmns.
„islamuri saxelmwifos“ Seqmnis gamocxadebiT al-baR
dadim ara marto imas gausva xazi, rom saerTaSoriso jiha
dizms axali centri da xelmZRvaneloba hyavda, aramed man
aseve gaaerTiana ori konfliqti, romelTac erTmaneTTan
praqtikulad kavSiri ar hqoniaT _ samoqalaqo omi siriaSi
da de faqto samoqalaqo omi eraySi. es aqti am samoqalaqo
omebis internacionalizaciis gamoxatuleba iyo. man Seqmna
aseve situacia, rodesac mraval urTierTdapirispirebul
mxares saerTo mteri _ islamuri saxelmwifo _ gamouCnda.
al-baRdadim aCvena, rom islamuri saxelmwifos ambiciebi
siriisa da erayis samoqalaqo omebze bevrad Sors midis da
5
axlo aRmosavleTSi axali politikuri wesrigis Seqmnas isa
xavs miznad.
6
„islamuri saxelmwifo“ cdilobs Tavis kontrols
daqvemdebarebul teritoriebze aseve danergos sakuTar
xedvaze damyarebuli ganaTlebis sistema. is mTlianad Sedge
ba islamis im versiisgan, romelsac qadagebs „saxelmwifo“.
musika, sporti da araerTi sxva sagani amoRebulia saskolo
kurikulumidan. mosulis dakavebis Semdeg, „saxelmwifos“
mesveurebma „skolebSi akrZales musikis, xatvis, erovnuli
istoriisa da literaturis swavla. patriotuli simRerebi
aseve RvTis gmobad gamocxadda“.9 musika akrZalulia manqa
nebSi, wveulebebze, maRaziebsa da sazogadoebrivi TavSeyris
adgilebSi.
„islamuri saxelmwifo“ aqtiurad awarmoebs rek
rutirebis process rogorc axlo aRmosavleTis, ise mTeli
msoflios masStabiT. mas sxvadasxva mizeziT uerTdebian:
zogi _ rwmeniT, zogi _ gasamrjelos miRebis surviliT,
zogs ki ubralod sxva Sansi ar aqvs. centraluri sadazvervo
sammarTvelos SefasebiT, dasavleTis qveynebis daaxl. 3000
moqalaqe ibrZvis „islamuri saxelmwifos“ SeiaraRebuli Za
lebis rigebSi. isini siriasa da eraySi ZiriTadad TurqeTi
dan xvdebian. maT Soris _ daaxl. 100-ia aSS-dan, 500 _ didi
britaneTidan, 700 _ danarCeni evropidan. xazs gavusvamT
erT saintereso faqts: gamokiTxvis Sedegad dadginda, rom
frangi muslimebis ufro didi nawili uWers mxars „islamur
saxelmwifos“, vidre Razas seqtorSi mcxovrebi palestineli
arabebi.10 es faqti kidev erTxel miuTiTebs, rom muslimTa
integraciis procesi dasavleT evropul sazogadoebebSi ar
gamodga warmatebuli. palestinelTa ganwyobis axsnac marti
vad SeiZleba _ upirvelesi mizania palestinis arabTa saxelm
wifos Seqmna da ara religiuri niSniT Seqmnili bundovani
warmonaqmnis nawilad qceva.
„islamuri saxelmwifo“ zrunavs rekrutebis dafinan
sebazec. maTTvis gadacemuli Tanxa 1000-dan 10000 dolaramde
meryeobs. maT exmarebian aseve pasportebis, TviTmfrinavis
bileTebis da a.S. SeZenaSi. gamoTvlilia, rom 11 seqtembris
teraqti daaxl. 500 aTasi dolari dajda, is-is xelSi ki gaci
lebiT ufro didi Tanxebia.
rekrutirebis procesis Taviseburebebis warmosa
Cenad sainteresoa paralelis gavleba „al-kaidasa“ da isl
7
amur saxelmwifos Soris. am ultraradikalur jgufebs axali
wevrebi sxvadasxva gziT uerTdebian. „al-kaidasTan“ Sesaer
Teblad pretendentma xangrZlivi, wlobiT gagrZelebuli
procesi unda gaiaros da kargad Seiswavlos jgufis ideo
logia, sanam mzadmyofad CaTvlian „jihadis“ misiis Sesas
ruleblad.
„islamur saxelmwifoSi“ rekrutirebis procesi bevrad
ufro martivi da imavdroulad saxifaToa. misi wevri SeiZleba
gaxdes yvela muslimi, romelsac manamde aranairi kavSiri ar
hqonia islamistebTan. is-is rekruti amgvarad SeiZleba gax
des Cveulebrivi axalgazrda, magaliTad, madridis „realis“
an „barselonas“ gulSematkivari an romelime popvarskvlavis
fani.11 es rekrutebi Cveulebriv ucnobi rCebian saxelmwifo
uSiSroebis samsaxurebisaTvis, sanam uSualod ar Caebmebian
teroristul saqmianobaSi. am mizeziT, ukiduresad rTulia
is-is rekrutirebis procesis kontroli.
dRes ukve gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba eniWeba ra
dikaluri jgufebis onlainmonitorings. saqme is aris, rom
dasavleTSi muslimi axalgazrdebi „religiur ganaTlebas“
swored radikaluri jgufebis vebgverdebidan iReben.
„islamuri saxelmwifo“ cdilobs saxelmwifos atribu
tebis gaTavisebasac. kontrolirebad teritoriebze xdeba
gadasaxadebis akrefa; funqcionirebs maRaziebi, saavadmyo
foebi, sxvadasxva sazogadoebrivi samsaxurebi, islamis maT
interpretaciaze damyarebuli skolebi da religiuri sa
samarTloebi.
„saxelmwifos“ samarTavad, SeiaraRebuli Zalebis
organizebisa da brZolisunarianobis gasazrdelad, is-s
aucileblad esaWiroeboda gamocdili kadrebi. am mxriv
gamorCeulad mniSvnelovani gamodga sadam huseinis reJimis
sayrdenis, baasistTa partiis wevrebis masobrivad gadasvla
eqstremistTa mxareze. baasistebi erTnairad warmoadgenen
antiqurTul, antiiranul da antiSiitur Zalas eraySi. maTma
ocdaTxuTmetwlianma mmarTvelobam warmoSva... ideologiu
rad damuSavebuli axali Taoba romelic garkveul doneze
saerTo enas poulobs „islamur saxelmwifosTan“.12 baasis
ti oficrebis jihadistTa rigebSi CarTvam mniSvnelovnad
gaaumjobesa maTi taqtikuri da sabrZolo SesaZleblobebi.
8
magram am TvalsazrisiTac arsebobs garkveuli problemebi.
ideologiurad baasistebs araferi aqvT saerTo eqstremist
islamistebTan. „saxelmwifos“ aliansi baasis partiis yofil
maRalCinosnebTan da samxedroebTan droebiT Tanmxvedr in
teresebzea dafuZnebuli da xangrZlivvadian perspeqtivaSi
ar unda CaiTvalos myarad. metic _ 2015 wlis dasawyisSi
ukve iyo cnobili islamuri saxelmwifos mesveurebsa da maT
mier daniSnul baasist funqcionerebs Soris arsebuli daZa
bulobis Sesaxeb.
poziciebis SenarCunebas, sakuTari mmarTvelobis
gamyarebasa da gafarToebisaken swrafvas didZali finansebi
sWirdeba. am mxriv ki bevri pasuxgaucemeli kiTxvaa.
Semosavlebis mniSvnelovani nawilis warmomavloba
xSir SemTxvevaSi ucnobi rCeba. sxvadasxva qveynis mTavrobebi
(saudis arabeTi, katari, TurqeTic ki) araerTxel daudana
SaulebiaT „saxelmwifos“ dafinansebaSi rogorc araofi
cialur, ise oficialur doneze (irani, siria). Tumca, am
SemTxvevaSi danamdvilebiT arafris Tqma ar SeiZleba, Tu
gaviTvaliswinebT imave saudis arabeTis mZafr dapirispi
rebas iranisa da siriis mTavrobebTan. aq unda aRiniSnos,
rom arabulma qveynebma (ufro naklebad _ TurqeTma), gansa
kuTrebiT ki saudis arabeTma da sparseTis yuris misma mo
kavSireebma, siriis samoqalaqo omis dasawyisidanve dainaxes
masSi regionSi iranuli zegavlenis mospobis saSualeba. seku
laruli mimarTulebis „Tavisufali siriis armias“ (Tsa) male
gauCnda politikuri da finansuri mxardaWera zemoaRniSnu
li qveynebidan. daxmareba wamovida islamuri „saqvelmoqme
do“ organizaciebidanac. am daxmarebis nawili ki radikaluri
islamuri jgufebis, maT Soris „islamuri saxelmwifos“ dRe
vandeli mesveurebis xelSi xvdeboda.
kontrolirebad teritoriebze, „islamuri saxelm
wifo“ krefs gadasaxadebs (gadasaxadebi gansakuTrebiT
mZimed daawva represiebs gadarCenil aramuslim mosaxleo
bas, romelic iZulebulia ixados damatebiTi gadasaxadi _
jizia13). sruli kontrolia damyarebuli sabanko seqtorze.
xSirad xdeba mosaxleobisaTvis qonebis CamorTmeva. Semosav
lebis mniSvnelovani wyaroa navTobi. aSS-is saxelmwifo xazi
nis SefasebiT, „islamuri saxelmwifo“ navTobis gayidvidan
9
yoveldRiurad milioni dolaris Semosavals iRebs.14 magali
Tad, „saxelmwifom“kontroli daamyara siriaSi mdebare al-
umaris navTobsabadoze. sabadodan yoveldRiurad daaxl. 75
aTas barel navTobs iReben. navTobis umetesi nawili arale
galurad iyideba TurqeTSi.
garda imisa, rom „saxelmwifos“ mebrZolebi siriasa da
eraySi arasunituri kulturis Zeglebs anadgureben, isini ev
ropaSi yidian kulturul artefaqtebs. miiCneva, rom „saxel
mwifom“ am gziT erTi wlis manZilze 200 mln-mde mogeba mi
iRo.15
bunebrivia, mniSvnelovan sakiTxs warmoadgens „islam
uri saxelmwifos“ urTierTobebi sxva radikalur dajgufe
bebTan, pirvel rigSi _ „al-kaidasTan“.
Tavidanve xazi unda gaesvas, rom es ori jgufi dRes
erTmaneTTan dapirispirebulia. am dapirispirebas ki xan
grZlivi istoria aqvs.
dasawyisidanve arsebobda mniSvnelovani gansxvaveba
„al-kaidasa“ da al-zarkavis strategiebs Soris. bin ladens
surda sunitTa da SiitTa gaerTianeba „urwmunoTa globalu
ri aliansis winaaRmdeg“, al-zarkavi ki amtkicebda, rom rjul
gandgomili Siitebi da zomieri sunitebi ufro did xifaTs
warmoadgendnen, vidre „Soreuli mteri“ _ aSS da misi mokav
Sireebi.16 unda aRiniSnos, rom „al-kaida“ dasawyisSi aSkarad
antiSiituri ganwyobebiT gamoirCeoda. magaliTad, 1988 wels
bin ladeni TviTon gauZRva Talib mebrZolebs pakistanis
gilgiTis provinciaSi SiitTa amboxis CasaxSobad, rasac mra
vali aseuli Siiti samoqalaqo piris amoxocva mohyva. Tumca,
1990-iani wlebis dasawyisSive mdgomareoba Seicvala da bin
ladeni alaparakda Siit da sunit jihadistTa TanamSromlo
bis aucileblobaze, risi araerTi magaliTic arsebobs. 2005
wels al-kaidas meore liderma aiman al-zavahirim werilic
ki miswera al-zarkavis SiitTa amoxocvisgan Tavis Sekavebis
mowodebiT.
winaaRmdegobebi momaval „islamur saxelmwifosa“ da
„al-kaidas“ Soris TandaTanobiT matulobda. 2014 wlis da
sawyisSi ki „al-kaidam“ sabolood gamoacxada, rom yovelgvar
kavSirs wyvetda „islamur saxelmwifosTan“. movlenaTa amgvari
ganviTareba ar iyo moulodneli _ orive jgufs pretenzia
10
aqvs islamuri samyaros „liderobaze“; konkretuli miznebi,
strategia da moqmedebis meTodebi ki _ gansxvavebuli.
zogadad, radikalur islamistur moZraobebSi ara
Tu erTianoba, aramed mkveTri dapirispirebac ki arsebobs.
dReisaTvis imave siriaSi xuTi erTmaneTTan dapirispirebu
li Zala SeiZleba gamovyoT: asadis xelisufleba, „islamuri
saxelmwifo“, sekularuli „Tavisufali siriis armia“, „al-
kaidasTan“ dakavSirebuli islamist-radikalTa jgufebi da
jihadisti jgufebi, romlebsac arc al-kaidasTan aqvT kav
Siri da arc is-Tan.
dRes Cans, rom „saxelmwifo“ garkveul teritoriebs
sakmaod myarad akontrolebs. cdilobs axali mebrZolebis
mozidvas da jgufebis Seqmnas araerT qveyanaSi, rac misi
globaluri ambiciebis maCvenebelia da im miznisa, rom saer
TaSoriso jihadistur moZraobaSi Caenacvlos „al-kaidas“.
amgvarad, ikveTeba mTavari _ islamuri saxelmwifo globalu
ri terorizmis centri xdeba.
„islamuri saxelmwifo“ cnobili gaxda masobrivi mkvle
lobebiT, romelTac teroristebi iRebdnen da socialuri
qselebiT avrcelebdnen. maT surdaT eCvenebinaT sakuTari
Zala da undodaT, rom msoflios kargad aReqva maTi gzav
nili _ Tu raoden seriozulad iRvwodnen dasaxuli miznis
misaRwevad.
es realoba 2014 wlis agvistodan gaxda cnobili, rode
sac internetiT gavrcelda araerTi dasavleli Jurnalis
tisaTvis Tavis mokveTis kadrebi. es Jurnalistebi arafers
vnebdnen „saxelmwifos“, magram isini paikebi aRmoCdnen is-
is TamaSSi, romliTac is cdilobda mTeli msofliosaTvis
eCvenebina, rom mas arc erTi qveynis da aranairi muqaris ar
eSinoda.
ra Tqma unda, terori, rogorc media-strategia, „is
lamuri saxelmwifos“ mesveurebis gamogonili ar aris (gavix
senoT Tundac Talibebis mier 1990-iani wlebis dasawyisSi
avRaneTis prezident najibulas sikvdiliT dasjis kadrebis
gavrceleba), magram internetis sayovelTao xelmisawvdomo
bis epoqaSi amgvar mudmivad ganmeorebad aqtebs gacilebiT
ufro farTo rezonansi da efeqti aqvs. „islamuri saxelm
wifo“ ar indobs arc misi TvalTaxedvidan „rjulgandgomil“
sunitebs.
11
mkvlelobebs emateba araislamuri (arasunituri) kul
turis Zeglebis ganadgurebis amsaxveli kadrebis gavrceleba.
gzavnili mkafioa _ unda ganadgurdes yvela da yvelaferi,
rac ar Seesatyviseba islamis maTeul aRqmas. gadarCenili
„urwmunoebi“ ki amgvari „islamuri“ mmarTvelobis pirobeb
Si ukiduresad mZime mdgomareobaSi arian Cayenebuli. qris
tiani da iezidi gogonebis mniSvnelovani nawili „seqsualur
monebad“ hyavT qceuli.
dasasrul im problemebsac unda gaesvas xazi, rasac
awydeba dRes „islamuri saxelmwifo“. pirvel rigSi, es aris
mis winaaRmdeg arsebuli saerTo fronti, romelmac adre
Seurigebeli mowinaaRmdegeebic ki gaaerTiana. meore rigSi,
sagulisxmoa, rom „islamuri saxelmwifo“ ar akontrolebs
arc erT sazRvao ports, rac udides problemebs uqmnis Sei
araRebis miwodebis TvalsazrisiT. aseve unda aRniSnos, rom
„islamur saxelmwifos“ ar aqvs sahaero Zalebi. yovelive ze
moTqmuli metad saTuos xdis misi arsebobis samomavlo pers
peqtivebs.
12
saxleobis umravlesobas sunitebi warmoadgenen, qveyanas
TiTqmis naxevari saukunea asadis Siituri alavituri ojaxi
marTavs. alavitebi ki siriis mosaxleobis mxolod 12%-s
Seadgenen.
eraysa da siriaSi samoqalaqo omis internacionali
zaciam ukiduresad rTuli politikuri garemo Seqmna. kidev
ufro gamoikveTa sunitur-Siituri antagonizmis konturebi.
siria dRes praqtikulad saxelmwifo aRar aris da warmoad
gens samxedro meTaurebis mier dayofil regionebs. asadi maT
Soris yvelaze Zlieria, magram mainc erT-erTi maTgania.18
xangrZlivvadian perspeqtivaSi islamuri saxelmwifos mebr
Zolebi, romelTac ar hyavT iaraRis mudmivi mimwodebeli da
mouwevT imiT Semofargvla, rasac brZolis velze moipoveben,
araxelsayrel mdgomareobaSi aRmoCdebian siriisa da erayis
samTavrobo ZalebTan brZolebSi, romelTac ar akliaT mxar
damWerebi, aseve _ sxva jgufebTan dapirispirebisas. isic aR
saniSnavia, islamuri saxelmwifos dasusteba ar gamoiwvevs
siriaSi samoqalaqo omis dasasruls da didi albaTobiT,
wertils ar dausvams politikur arastabilurobas eraySi.
erayis Sina stabiluroba upirobod dakavSirebulia
siriis samoqalaqo omis SedegTan. suniti mebrZolebi siriaSi
uryevad uWeren mxars erayel sunitebs. ueWvelia, rom baR
dadis mTavrobisTvis SeuZlebeli iqneba siriasTan sazRvris
dacva da mSvidobis damyareba dasavleT eraySi erayis suni
turi Temis mxardaWeris gareSe. sanam Zaladoba grZeldeba
siriaSi, sanam erayis sunituri Temi Tavs marginalizebulad
grZnobs, SeuZlebeli iqneba mSvidobis miRweva.
gayofa or mezobels Soris dRes ukve aRar aris Sesam
Cnevi. „aRar arsebobs sazRvrebi, sazRvris dacva, pasporte
bi an armiebi, romlebic gamoacalkevebdnen siriasa da erays
erTmaneTisgan.19 sasazRvro gamSvebi punqtebis ararsebobis
pirobebSi teroristebi Tavisuflad gadaadgildebian erTi
qveynidan meoreSi.
siriasa da eraySi Seqmnil viTarebas metad mniSv
nelovani demografiuli Sedegebi mohyveba mTeli regionis
masStabiT. adre eTnikuri TvalsazrisiT SedarebiT homoge
nuri regioni, erayis avtonomiuri qurTistani (romlis da
moukideblobac, araerTi analitikosis SexedulebiT, arc
13
Tu ise Soreuli perspeqtivaa), aivso arabi ltolvilebiT
_ isini amJamad qurTistanis mosaxleobis (omamde 5,2 mln.)
TiTqmis mesameds Seadgenen.20 regioni ki cnobili iyo mkafi
od gamoxatuli qurTuli identobiT. arabi ltolvilebis
talRa ki paradoqsuli gziT is-is antinacionalisturi pan
islamisturi xedvis CarCoebSi jdeba.
14
analitikosebi gamoTqvamen Tvalsazriss, rom maSin,
roca SeerTebulma Statebma trilionebiT dolaris inves
tireba moaxdina eraySi 2003 wlidan am qveynis sakuTar or
bitaSi mosaqcevad da aTasobiT sicocxlec gaiRo am miznis
misaRwevad, dReisTvis Cans, rom irani am mizans gacilebiT
ufro mcire danaxarjebiT aRwevs.22
irani aseve yovelTvis exmareboda asads samxedro Za
liT, aRWurvilobiTa da finansebiT. siriis armia, iranTan
mWidrod dakavSirebul libanur „hezbolahTan“ erTad, ibrZ
vis „islamuri saxelmwifos“ winaaRmdeg (miRweulia garkveuli
warmatebebic). irani mxars uWers da exmareba erayis qurTeb
sac „islamuri saxelimwifos“ winaaRmdeg brZolaSi.
„islamuri saxelmwifos winaaRmdeg gamodis ruse
Tic. ruseTis strategiul interesebSi erays gansakuTrebiT
mniSvnelovani adgili ar uWiravs, magram sruliad sxvagvari
viTarebaa siriasTan dakavSirebiT. asadis reJims realurad
mxolod ori mxardamWeri hyavs _ irani da ruseTi („saxelm
wifosTan“ dapirispirebuli sxva qveynebi ZiriTadad „Tavisu
fali siriis armiis“ momxreebi arian).
ruseTs xangrZlivi, axlo urTierobebi akavSirebs asa
dis reJimTan. tartusis portSi jer kidev sabWoTa droidan
arsebobs samxedro baza _ erTaderTi rusuli samxedro baza
postsabWoTa sivrcis gareT. ruseTi siriis xelisuflebisa
Tvis iaraRis mTavari mimwodebelia (pirdapiri gziT an iranis
saSualebiT).
asadis reJimis mTavari regionuli mowinaaRmdegeebi
israeli da saudis arabeTi arian. imavdroulad isini mZafrad
upirispirdebian iransac. israeli iranis hipoTetur gaZ
lierebas sakuTari usafrTxoebisaTvis udides saSiSroebad
aRiqvams, saudis arabeTi ki SiSobs, rom iranis momZlavrebis
Sedegad Seiryeva misi winamavali poziciebi regionSi da suni
tur dominirebasac safrTxe Seeqmneba. amitomac gasakviri ar
aris, rom zemonaxsenebi orive qveyana obamas administraciis
mZafri kritikiT gamovida iranis birTvul programaze miR
weul SeTanxmebasTan dakavSirebiT.
TurqeTis roli siriis samoqalaqo omSi sakmaod oraz
rovania. is dasawyisidanve uWerda mxars Tsa-s. meore mxriv
ki, TurqeTis mTavrobam uari uTxra Statebs mis teritori
15
aze arsebuli aviabazebidan daertyaT siriisaTvis. TurqeTi
sakmaod SeSfoTebuli iyo „islamuri saxelmwifos“ winaaRm
deg brZolaSi qurTebis CabmiT da sakmaod didxans yoymanob
da mieca Tu ara feSmergas23 ZalebisTvis mis teritoriaze
gavliT siriaSi qurTebis dasaxmareblad gadasvlis ufleba
(sabolood daTanxmda).
TurqeTis rTuli urTierTobebi erayis qurTistanTan
da siriis qurTebTan ar aris moulodneli, Tuki gaviTvalis
winebT sakuTriv TurqeTSi qurTebTan dakavSirebiT arse
bul problemebs. ankaras gansakuTrebiT aSfoTebs TurqeT
Si teroristul organizaciad gamocxadebuli qurTistanis
muSaTa partiis (PKK) gaaqtiureba. miiCneva rom PKK-is daaxl.
3 aTasi mebrZoli erayis qurTistanSi ibrZvis. TurqeTis Sei
araRebuli Zalebi araerTxel SeWrilan erayis qurTistanis
teritoriaze PKK-is mebrZolebis devnis dros da sasazRvro
regionebSi feSmergas ZalebTan dapirispirebac yofila. „is
lamuri saxelmwifos“ winaaRmdeg brZolaSi PKK-is monawileo
bam SeiZleba gamoiwvios aSS-is mier misi teroristuli or
ganizaciebis siidan amoReba, rac ankaras didad aSfoTebs.
TurqeTis mTavar Tavis tkivils warmoadgens is, rom sul
ufro mzardi kavSirebi erayisa da siriis qurTebs Soris,
qurTistanis regionuli mTavrobis miswrafeba damoukideb
lobisaken da dausrulebeli areulobebi siriaSi SeiZleba
marTlac dagvirgvindes qurTuli saxelmwifos SeqmniT da
TurqeTis qurTebis moTxovnis ganaxlebiT, rom isini gaxdnen
an axali saxelmwifos nawili, an hqondeT farTo qurTuli
avtonomia TurqeTis SigniT.
sirieli amboxebulebis mxardaWeris problemam gav
lena moaxdina Turqul-amerikul urTierTobebzec. ankaris
survilia, rom Statebi Tanmimdevruli iyos asadis xelisuf
lebidan CamoSorebis saqmeSi, Statebisa da misi mokavSireebis
Zalebma ki sahaero dartymebi ganaxorcielon siriis Seiara
Rebul Zalebze. 2014 welsa da 2015 wlis pirvel naxevarSi
ki aSS-is sahaero dartymebi ZiriTadad mimarTuli iyo „is
lamuri saxelmwifos“ winaaRmdeg. Tavdapirvelad vaSingtoni
sakmaod mkacri iyo siriaSi samoqalaqo mosaxleobaze asadis
Zalebis Tavdasxmebis mimarT da „wiTeli xazic“ ki daadgina
_ qimiuri iaraRis gamoyenebis SemTxvevaSi aSS CaerTveboda
16
konfliqtSi. Cans, rom qimiuri iaraRis gamoyeneba marTlac
moxda, Tumca dRemde bundovania, Tu romelma mxarem gamoiye
na is. Semdgom ki Statebma sakmaod orazrovani pozicia dai
kava asadis xelisuflebis momavalTan dakavSirebiT. Turqe
Ti SiSobs, rom iranuli mxardaWeris uzrunvelyofisaTvis
„islamuri saxelmwifos“ winaaRmdeg brZolaSi vaSingtoni
gverdze gadadebs asadis reJimis damxobis gegmas.
amgvarad, „islamur saxelmwifosTan“ dapirispirebul
qveynebs regionis momavlis gansxvavebuli xedva aqvT da xSir
SemTxvevaSi es xedva mkafiod Camoyalibebulic ar aris.
irans surs rogorc siriaSi, ise eraySi arsebuli re
Jimebis SenarCuneba, riTac imedovnebs sakuTari zegavlenis
gazrdas da regionul liderad qcevasac ki. am miznis misaR
wevad irani ar Takilobs „did satanasTan“ _ aSS-Tan dakav
Sirebasac.
saudis arabeTis mizania siriaSi asadis reJimis damxo
ba, eraySi ki sunitTa dabruneba xelisuflebis saTaveSi. am
miznebis ganxorcielebiT is imedovnebs iranis izolirebas
(am ori qveynis urTierTobebSi sxva araerTi dabrkolebac
arsebobs _ samoqalaqo omi iemenSi, winaaRmdegobebi sparse
Tis yureSi da a.S.).
asadis reJimis damxoba aseve Sedis TurqeTis intere
sebSi. Tumca, TurqeTis mTavar interess warmoadgens qurTu
li saxelmwifos SeqmnisaTvis xelis SeSla (siriis teritori
aze mainc). amdenad, TurqeTis interesia arsebuli sazRvrebis
SenarCuneba.
ruseTs, iranis msgavsad, surs siriis amJamindeli xe
lisuflebisa da qveynis erTianobis SenarCuneba, riTac ime
dovnebs axlo aRmosavleTSi poziciebis gamyarebas.
israelis umTavresi mizania ar dauSvas iranis
poziciebis gamyareba. asadis reJimis arsebobis SenarCunebis
SemTxvevaSi ki, iranis zegavlena siriazec da libanzec kidev
ufro gaizrdeba. amitomac israeli gaafTrebiT ewinaaRmde
geba aSS-isa da iranis daaxloebas.
mTavari politikuri aqtori, aSS, sakmaod orazro
van poziciaSia. „islamuri saxelmwifos“ winaaRmdeg brZo
laSi misi mTavari „mokavSire“ praqtikulad gaxda yofili
dauZinebeli mteri _ irani. aSS momxrea eraySi mis mier xel
17
dasxmuli xelisuflebis, anu Siituri umravlesobis domini
rebis SenarCunebisa, rac srulad emTxveva iranis interesebs.
asadis reJimis mimarT dRes Statebs ukve ar aqvs mkafiod
gamoxatuli negatiuri damokidebuleba. reJimis represiuli
xasiaTis miuxedavad, dRes siriis armia realurad erTaderTi
lokaluri Zalaa, romelsac SeuZlia warmatebiT daupiris
pirdes „islamur saxelmwifos“.
calke problemas warmoadgens qurTistanis sakiTxi.
bevri analitikosi miiCnevs, rom erayis qurTistani adre Tu
gvian damoukidebel saxelmwifod iqceva, Tumca dRes mov
lenebSi CarTuli yvela saxelwifo oficialur doneze Tavs
ikavebs am sakiTxis mimarT mkafio poziciis dafiqsirebisagan.
Seqmnili viTareba, Cveni azriT, marTlac SeiZleba
movnaTloT „did TamaSad“ axlo aRmosavleTSi, rodesac mov
lenebSi CarTuli aqtorebi ar Takiloben poziciebis Secv
las sakuTari interesebis gatarebis mizniT. politikuri veq
torebis cvlilebebi ki arc momavalSi SeiZleba gamovricxoT
esoden problematur regionSi.
18
pankisis xeobidan, magram aseve aWaridan da aRm. saqarTvelos
azerbaijanelebiT dasaxlebuli regionebidan).
„moxetiale jihadistebi“ dRes axal profesiad iqca.
maT SesaniSnavad aiTvises sazRvrebis gadalaxvis xelovneba.
isini kargad arian SeiaraRebuli da ician omis warmoeba. maTi
sisastike ukideganoa da sabrZolo suliskveTeba _ maRali.
2015 wlis ivnisSi „islamurma saxelmwifom“ „kavkasiis
vilaieTis“ Seqmnis Sesaxeb ganacxada. jerjerobiT winaaRm
degobrivia informacia imis Taobaze, warmoadgens Tu ara
„vilaieTi“ „imaratis“ mokavSires, an qmnian Tu ara isini er
Tian „virtualur“ saxelmwifos Tu saqme gvaqvs radikal is
lamistebs Soris dapirispirebasTan.25 arsebobs monacemebi,
rom „kavkasiis imaratis“ regionuli liderebis umravlesoba
negatiurad aris ganwyobili is-is mebrZolTa mimarT. „is
lamuri saxelmwifo“ jerjerobiT ar aris sakmarisad popu
laruli da Zlieri Crd. kavkasiaSi. magram analitikosebi ar
gamoricxaven regionSi destabilizaciis eskalacias siriis
scenaris mixedviT, anu oms jihadistTa Soris.26
dabolos, ra xifaTebs uqmnis „islamuri saxelmwifo“
saqarTvelos? viziarebT Tvalsazriss, rom „saqarTvelo, ro
gorc teritoria, ar warmoadgens pirdapiri interesis obi
eqts, Tu ar iqneba Sesabamisi pirobebi, gansakuTrebiT _ mxar
damWerTa simravle“.27
magram samwuxarod xdeba ise, rom saqarTvelos moqa
laqeebi, Tan sakmaod axalgazrdebi (bavSvebic ki), TurqeTis
gavliT im teritoriebze xvdebian, romlebsac akontrolebs
„saxelmwifo“ da ewerebian mebrZolTa rigebSi. es, ra Tqma
unda, seriozuli problemaa, Tumca, bunebrivia, ar aris sau
bari masobriv movlenaze _ saqarTvelo patara qveyanaa da
saqarTvelos muslimTa Soris aseTi ganwyobebi ar aris domi
nanturi.
nawilobriv viziarebT im azrs, rom muslimi axalgazr
debis radikalizacia im socialuri da ekonomikuri proble
mebiT aris gamowveuli, romlebic dRes pankisis xeobaSi ar
sebobs. magram ekonomikuri faqtori ar aris erTaderTi. aq
sxva mniSvnelovani faqtorebicaa da maT SeiZleba garkveuli
paralelic moenaxos dasavlur qveynebSi (ver vityviT rom
dasavlur qveynebSi socialuri da ekonomikuri problemebi
19
ubiZgebs muslim axalgazrdebs saomrad wasvlisaken). pirvel
rigSi, am axal viTarebaSi gazrdili TaobisTvis arsebobs mex
sierebis problema, rac mohyva CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi ruse
Tis oms da im ltolvilTa gansaxlebas pankisSi, romlebmac
iq axali islamuri ideebi Semoitanes (saerTodac, CrdiloeT
kavkasiaSi islamis radikalizacia swored ruseTis politikas
ukavSirdeba).
meore momentia interneti, socialuri qselebi da ra
dikaluri ideologiis mqadagebeli vebgverdebi, romelTa
Tavisufali wvdoma aqvT axalgazrdebs. swored aseTi mowo
debebis gamoZaxilia, rom pankisel axalgazrdebs uCndebaT
survili wavidnen da islamis saxeliT iomon sruliad bundo
vani miznebisaTvis.
saWiroa mTavrobam SeimuSaos mizanmimarTuli poli
tika, romelic unda gatardes panikis gareSe, didi Zalisx
mevis da muSaobis saSualebiT. isic aRsaniSnavia, rom mza
gadawyvetilebebi da „receptebi“ ar arsebobs _ rom arse
bobdes, maT dasavleTi aucileblad gamoiyenebda. mTavro
bam, mTis specifikidan gamomdinare, uxucesTa mxardaWeriT
unda imoqmedos. regionSi mcxovrebi didi avtoritetis mqone
ufros Taobas unda daeyrdnos da, rac mTavaria, seriozuli
nabijebi unda gadaidgas socialur-ekonomikuri problemebis
gamosasworeblad. saganmanaTleblo kuTxiT, ra Tqma unda,
Tavis doneze unda dadges skolebi. magram amavdroulad mus
lim axalgazrdebs unda SeeZloT obieqturi informaciis da
ganaTlebis miReba TavianTi religiisa Tu istoriis Sesaxeb
da ara radikalebisagan da sxvadasxva socialuri qselidan.
saboloo SeniSvnebi
20
radikalurma jihadisturma da nawilobriv revoluciurma
xelisuflebam, „islamurma saxelmwifom“, sakuTari Zalauf
lebis qveS moaqcia didi britaneTis zomis teritoria 10 mil
ionamde mosaxleobiT; „daiwyo sakuTari samflobelos trans
formacia adreuli Sua saukuneebis islamuri saxalifos 21-e
saukunis reinkarnaciis saxiT“.28 am procesSi „saxelmwifo“
gardaiqmna jer arnaxul politikur erTobad _ teroris
tul saxelmwifod sakuTari armiiT, valutiT, pasportiT da
axali islamuri saxalifos Seqmnis revoluciuri strategi
iT, romelmac Tavdapirvelad unda moicvas islamuri samya
ro, Semdeg _ vrceli teritoria iberiis naxevarkunZulidan
indoeTis CaTvliT, bolos ki _ mTeli msoflio. siria da
erayi ara mxolod samoqalaqo omSi Caeflen, aramed iqcnen
sunituri-Siituri metoqeobis epicentrad, romelic mTeli
muslimuri samyaros konfliqtSi CarTvis safrTxes qmnis.
warmoudgeneli sisastikiT, genocidis masStabis masobrivi
mkvlelobebiT „islamuri saxelmwifo“ cvlis politikur
landSafts axlo aRmosavleTSi da erTmaneTTan akavSirebs
iseT dauZinebel mtrebsac ki, rogorebic arian aSS da irani.
magram amasTanave, „islamuri saxelmwifos“ mdgomareo
ba myifea. mis mesveurT ar aqvT „saxelmwifos“ marTvisa da
politikuri mowyobis realisturi gegmebi. sazRvao portisa
da sahaero Tavdacvis ararsebobis pirobebSi, metad rTuli
iqneba masze gacilebiT ufro kargad SeiaraRebuli Zalebis
winaaRmdeg brZolaSi warmatebis miRweva.
Tumca, „islamuri saxelmwifos“ kolafsis SemTxveva
Sic ki, SeuZlebelia moklevadian perspeqtivaSi rogorc si
riasa da eraySi, ise, zogadad, axlo aRmosavleTSi arsebuli
winaaRmdebobebis gadalaxva. Siitur-suniturma dapiris
pirebam SesaZloa Seqmnas regionuli bipolaruli samyaro,
romelSic erT mxares idgebian irani da misi mxardamWerebi,
xolo meore mxares _ saudis arabeTi da misi mokavSireebi.
dasavleTs ki mouwevs mudmivi kompromisis Zieba am or mxares
Soris. „islamuri saxelmwifos“ mimarT TanmTxvev poziciebs
Tu ar CavTvliT, am „did TamaSSi“ CarTul saxelmwifoebs So
ris jerjerobiT gadaulaxavi winaaRmdegobebi arsebobs.
21
gamoyenebuli literatura
1 Joseph V. Micallef. Islamic State: Its History, Ideology and Challenge. Kindle Edition. An-
tioch Downs Press, 2015.
2 Jordan Keller. ISIS. Origins of Terrorism, Historical Events, and the Individuals Behind the
Largest Terrorist Threat of Our Time. Kindle Edition. Amazon Digital Services, Inc. 2015.
3 www.theweek.com/articles/443835/abu-bakr-albaghdadi-man-who-caliph
6 Stephanie Nebehay. “Islamic State-controlled parts of Syria, Iraq largely out of reach:
Red Cross.” www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/13/us-mideast-crisis-syria-icrc-idUSK-
BN0M921N20150313
7 Abu Mohammad. “Letter dated 9 July 2005” (PDF). Office of the Director of National
Intelligence. www.web.archive.org/web/20110522153638/http:/www.dni.gov/press_re-
leases/letter_in_english.pdf ix. gv.2 da momdevno gverdebi.
8 iqve.
9 Richard York. Know Thy Enemy: Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. lulu.com, 2015, 18.
10 Joseph Spark. Atrocities Committed By ISIS in Syria & Iraq: ISIL/Islamic State/Daesh.
CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, 2014.
15 iqve, 22.
16 ix. Springer Devin. Islamic Radicalism and Global Jihad. Georgetown University Press,
2009.
17 www.fareedzakaria.com/2015/05/28/iraq-exists-only-as-an-idea-not-a-nation/
22
19 Abdulrahman Al-Rashed. Opinion: Iraq and Syria—One Country, One War 14 Jun, 2015
www.aawsat.net/2015/06/article55343956/opinion-iraq-and-syria-one-country-one-war
23