Pakistan has the highest rate of urbanization in South Asia, with more than 36 percent of the population

now living in cities, the UN reports. As rural to urban migration continues towards the centers of
economic activity, runaway urbanization will see 50 percent of the population living in cities by 2025.
This major shift in living, coupled with changes in land use, transforming consumption patterns, and
massive scale changes in land use will herald in a new era of challenges unlike the ones we have seen
before.

Already rapid urban sprawl to accommodate the masses moving to cities like Lahore is evident from the
disappearance of green spaces — plantations, parks, green belts, and urban gardens — in the name of
“development.” The transformative nature of urbanisation is converging with climate change in an
ominous manner. Cities and towns are increasingly bearing the brunt of natural disasters such as urban
flooding and smog. Increased utilisation of poor-quality fuels for transportation, power generation, and
industrial purposes, coupled with deforestation, land use changes, and extensive infrastructure
development contributes to increasing environmental pressures.

In August last year, Prime Minister Imran Khan announced a transformative project to revive the lost
glory of Lahore by creating a model city compared to the likes of Dubai, along the banks of the Ravi. This
PKR 5 trillion development schemes was immediately hailed as a lifeline for not just the local economy,
but also the country’s construction and real estate sector. Marketed with tall claims such as being a one-
stop solution to the city’s pollution, sewerage, water supply, and smog challenges, the project was to be
implemented by the Ravi Urban Development Authority (RUDA).

The authority’s grand marketing scheme painted a rosy picture that seemed all too good to be true:
creating a quarter of a million jobs in construction, transforming environmental conditions, creating
space for new residential and commercial areas, wastewater treatment plants, and a grand residential
scheme overlooking the river – all to be completed before the next general elections.

The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, in its fact-finding report outlines serious flaws with the
project, and highlights some of the devastating impacts it may have if development continues unabated
in an environmentally unsustainable manner. For starters, the proposed re-alignment or channelization
of the river against its natural course is an open invitation to a flooding disaster. Pakistan is already one
of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, and flooding is the biggest natural hazard the
country faces: 26 major riverine floods have ravaged the country since 1950, affecting 20 million people
and causing direct and indirect losses worth nearly $10 billion. In the last few years, devastating urban
flooding in Karachi and Lahore, among other cities, have become the norm. Among the chief causes are
changes in land use, alteration of natural water courses to make way for “development” and occupation
of flood plains.

As the second largest city in Pakistan, Lahore has a surveyed population of more than 11 million. Urban
sprawl is evidenced by the fact that the city’s population nearly doubled in merely 20 years (Pakistan
Bureau of Statistics 2018). Detailed land cover change analysis of the district is given in the table below.
Image: Lahore Development Authority – Presentation on Increasing Green Cover in Lahore District, 2019

The aforementioned figures indicate that during the 7-year period from 2010 to 2017, the tree cover in
Lahore fell by nearly 75 per cent. This explains the harsh environmental impacts we have been suffering
with the increasing severity of heat, smog, and urban flooding each year.

The project’s Environmental Impact Assessment conducted by the Environment Protection Department
(EPD) Punjab highlights that 77 percent of the proposed construction area is agricultural land, while the
remaining includes orchards, forests, settlements, and flood plains. A whopping 76,000 acres of
agricultural land and 12,172 acres of protected forests will be consumed by this proposed development.
The report goes on to highlight the very real possibility of groundwater depletion and quality issues due
to construction. Furthermore, it expects a likely increase in air pollution due to construction activities,
movement of heavy vehicles, and use of other equipment. The EIA has largely been considered
inadequate by conservationists and civil society, citing the outdated baseline data and social statistics
used; omission of solid waste management and impacts on food production; and lack of monitoring
mechanisms, environmental conservation or affordable housing options.

Beyond the environmental impacts, serious concerns surround the acquisition of land for the project:
the Government of the Punjab began imposing the Land Acquisition Act of 1894 to notify vast tracts for
the Ravi Urban Development Project without EIA approval. Local residents and farmers complain that
they were not allowed to record objections, and adequate compensation for their land is not being
offered. This disregard of human costs and failure to present any suitable relocation or compensation
for loss of livelihood is a stark reminder of history repeating itself: indeed similar cases came to light
during the land acquisition for the Orange Line Metro Train.

It is the need for the Government of the Punjab’s EPD and RUDA to re-consult stakeholders, engage
local farmers in the conversation, and revise the Environmental Impact Assessment in light of new
information and on the lines of international best practices. Input from environmental experts is also
essential before re-channelising the river front to reduce the risk of future disasters, particularly riverine
floods. Finally, the rules and regulations of the Ravi Urban Development Authority need to be prescribed
so that arbitrary work can be replaced by systematic, sustainable measures that protect the lives and
livelihoods of the local population.