Journal of Geophysics and Engineering

J. Geophys. Eng. 15 (2018) 13–25 (13pp) https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-2140/aa8d51

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments of

Sabah, east Malaysia: accounting for local
earthquake activity near Ranau
Amin E Khalil1,2 , Ismail A Abir1, Hanteh Ginsos1,
Hesham E Abdel Hafiez3 and Sohail Khan4
1
School of Physics, Univesiti Sains Malaysia, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia, 11800

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2
Geology Department, Faculty of Science, Helwan University, Helwan, Cairo, Egypt, 11795
3
National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics, Helwan, Cairo, Egypt, 11421
4
School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, People’s
Republic of China

E-mail: amin_khalil@usm.my

Received 27 April 2017, revised 15 August 2017

Accepted for publication 18 September 2017
Published 7 December 2017

Abstract
Sabah state in eastern Malaysia, unlike most of the other Malaysian states, is characterized by
common seismological activity; generally an earthquake of moderate magnitude is experienced at an
interval of roughly every 20 years, originating mainly from two major sources, either a local source
(e.g. Ranau and Lahad Dato) or a regional source (e.g. Kalimantan and South Philippines
subductions). The seismicity map of Sabah shows the presence of two zones of distinctive seismicity,
these zones are near Ranau (near Kota Kinabalu) and Lahad Datu in the southeast of Sabah. The
seismicity record of Ranau begins in 1991, according to the international seismicity bulletins (e.g.
United States Geological Survey and the International Seismological Center), and this short record is
not sufficient for seismic source characterization. Fortunately, active Quaternary fault systems are
delineated in the area. Henceforth, the seismicity of the area is thus determined as line sources
referring to these faults. Two main fault systems are believed to be the source of such activities;
namely, the Mensaban fault zone and the Crocker fault zone in addition to some other faults in their
vicinity. Seismic hazard assessments became a very important and needed study for the extensive
developing projects in Sabah especially with the presence of earthquake activities. Probabilistic
seismic hazard assessments are adopted for the present work since it can provide the probability of
various ground motion levels during expected from future large earthquakes. The output results are
presented in terms of spectral acceleration curves and uniform hazard curves for periods of 500, 1000
and 2500 years. Since this is the first time that a complete hazard study has been done for the area,
the output will be a base and standard for any future strategic plans in the area.

Keywords: Sabah seismicity, probabilistic seismic hazards, Ranau

(Some figures may appear in colour only in the online journal)

Introduction considerable number of development projects due to the

For regions with documented seismic activities, seismic hazard
assessments are an important task for the preparedness and
mitigation of their effects. For a developing country like
Malaysia, such importance is even more vital to ensure the
sustainability of development projects both for industries and
urbanization purposes. Sabah is currently witnessing a
Malaysian government’s national agenda to transform the
country into a high-income nation by the year 2020
(SEDIA 2015). The Economic Transformation Programme
by the government separates Sabah into six strategic
development areas with each area focusing on a particular
aspect of the economy, such as oil and gas, tourism
(northwest Sabah) and agriculture (SEDIA 2015). Furthermore,

1742-2132/18/010013+13$33.00 13 © 2017 Sinopec Geophysical Research Institute Printed in the UK

J. Geophys. Eng. 15 (2018) 13
Figure 1. Faults and earthquake epicenters around Ranau, northwest Sabah.
due to the expected increase in the demand for energy, a coal
power plant is proposed to be built in Lahad Datu, Sabah by a
local company (Koh and Lim 2010). This and many more
development projects motivated the present study to determine
expected ground motion levels during future large earthquakes.
The probabilistic seismic hazards assessments
approach (PSHA) is adopted in the present study, which
gives the probability of ground motion levels for various
magnitude earthquakes. Henceforth, PSHA is increasingly
attracting the interest of many researchers in various
localities all over the globe (e.g. Sokolov et al (2004),
Faenza et al (2007), El-Hussain et al (2012), Liu et al
(2013), Ordaz et al (2014), Ezzelarab et al (2016), and Liu
et al (2016)). The seismic hazard is calculated based on the
procedure that was introduced by Cornell (1968). The
PSHA is calculated using variable data (geological, seis-
mological and structural) to construct a model of earth-
quake ground motion at the site of interest. This technique
follows four steps; firstly, a complete analysis of the
historical and recent seismicity in the area was carried
out, followed by determining and identifying the seismo-
tectonic source model for the area. Secondly, recurrence
parameters for seismicity, including the expected max-
imum earthquake, were estimated for each determined
seismic source. Finally, a predictive ground motion is used
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A E Khalil et al
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to describe the expected ground motion as a function of
different magnitudes and distances.
The region of interest, i.e. Sabah state, is the most seis-
mically active region in Malaysia. Several moderate earth-
quakes with magnitudes around 6 on the Richter scale struck
the state in the past. These earthquakes caused moderate
damage to properties. For the Ranau area, damage due to
earthquakes is more dangerous. The only casualties reported
were caused by the earthquake of 5th June 2015 with a
moment magnitude Mw=6.0. Another event in Ranau area,
which took place in 1991, also damaged some buildings. The
events near Lahad Datu, on the other hand, are reported to
produce moderate damage with no reported casualties. It is
evident that the events near Ranau are more dangerous
compared to those near Lahad Datu. The reason may be due
to their proximity to Kota Kinabalu which comprises a denser
population. Moreover, the only casualties reported were of
climbers at Mount Kinabalu. According to Tjia (2007), the
earthquakes near Ranau are triggered due to the movement of
Quaternary active faults in the area. Kundasang-Ranau is
located near the intersection of regional fault zones. These
faults are namely the Crocker fault zone and Mensaban fault
zone. The widespread mass movements of the Kundasang
area can be partially attributed to such active movements
and intersections. Despite such remarkable fault movements,
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Figure 2. Local seismicity of Sabah.

Figure 3. Regional seismicity with possible impacts on Sabah.

the seismicity record at the area is short. Previous work seismic hazards approach while considering only the regional
conducted in the area (e.g. Leyu et al (1985), Che Abas sources. The deterministic seismic hazard approach depends
(2001), and Harith et al (2014)), used the deterministic on the so-called characteristic earthquake which can be

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Figure 4. Earthquake source definitions in the region around the area under investigation (after Irsyam et al 2010).

Figure 5. Spectral acceleration for Ranau at periods of (a) 0.01 s, (b) 1 s and (c) 2 s. Uniform hazard curve is shown in (d).

defined as the maximum expected earthquake affecting the their work did not consider the local seismicity near Ranau
site. Hence, the effects of other earthquakes are not con- which may have dangerous effects on neighboring sites like
sidered, which may mask important effects. Furthermore, Kota Kinabalu.

16
J. Geophys. Eng. 15 (2018) 13
Figure 6. Spectral acceleration for Kota Kinabalu at periods of (a) 0.01 s, (b) 1 s and (c) 2 s. Uniform hazard curve is shown in (d).
Seismotectonic setting
In general, the region of northern Borneo has a moderate rate
of earthquakes influenced by the local tectonics with the
biggest reported earthquake occurring in 1923 with a mag-
nitude of 6.9 ((Rangin et al 1999), (Engdahl and Villase-
nor 2002), (Simons et al 2007), (Petersen et al 2007)). The
local tectonics of Sabah are controlled mainly by the rifting
episodes of the South China Sea generating NE–SW struc-
tures and the opening of the Sulu Sea basin generating NW–
SE structures (e.g. Tan and Lamy (1990), Tongkul (1993)).
Moreover, Sabah has experienced episodes of compression
since the Cretaceous, which can be observed from the
existence of folds and thrust faults, however, an episode
of extension occurred during the late Early Miocene
which culminated in NE–SW trending normal faults
(Tongkul 1993).
Such a complex deformation history is controlled mainly
by the tectonic evolution of the surrounding deep basins
which are the South China Sea basin to the north, the Sulu
Sea basin to the northeast and the Celebes Sea basin to the
southeast (Hall et al 2008). Consequently, three major epi-
sodes of compression along the northwestern boundary of
Sabah occurred during the Late Eocene, Early Miocene and
Late Miocene periods (Balaguru and Hall 2008). This is
mainly due to the subduction of the South China Sea beneath
Borneo resulting in thrust faults and folds. The presence of
the Crocker–Rajang mountain belt is a clear indication of the
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A E Khalil et al
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compressional environment along the northwest of Sabah
(Franke et al 2008). Moreover, the last tectonic event that is
probably still ongoing is the formations of sinistral trans-
pressional faulting in the southeast of Sabah, which is
believed to be the result of the propagation of deformation
from Sulawesi (Balaguru and Hall 2008). This ongoing
transpressional deformation is observed to affect the local
seismicity of Sabah.
Furthermore, the seismotectonic studies conducted by a
number of researchers (e.g. Leyu et al (1985), Che Abas
(2001), and Wah (2011)) show that the state of Sabah exhibits
a clear rate of crustal deformation. Sabah is believed to owe
its moderate seismicity to the active Mensaban and Lobou-
Lobou fault zones which have brought about earthquakes that
caused light damage to infrastructure.
According to Tjia (2007), the Crocker zone extends
about 170 km in length, comprising the Quaternary struc-
tural valleys of Tenom, Keningau, and Tambunan. These
valleys are trending N–S to N 20° E. The sense of motion
for these family of faults is normal dip-slip with a sinistral
strike slip component. Surface deformations of tarred roads
clearly show that these faults are still active. An important
question arises here as to whether these activities are either
seismic or aseismic (creep). Seismic movements are
transient and sudden which characterizes areas of brittle
rocks. Creep, on the other hand, occurs in regions
predominantly composed of ductile rocks. In ductile zones,
the accumulated strains are dissipated in the form of slow
J. Geophys. Eng. 15 (2018) 13
Figure 7. Spectral acceleration for Tawau at periods of (a) 0.01 s, (b) 1 s and (c) 2 s. Uniform hazard curve is shown in (d).
movements. The recorded earthquake activities in Sabah
(figure 1) show that these faults may have both seismic
movements and creep.
In addition to Ranau, two other local seismic activities
can be observed from the local seismicity map of Sabah
(figure 2). These two zones are the Sundakan in the northeast
and Semporna in the southeast. The seismicity at Semporna
may be related to the Kalimantan subduction zone and thus
will be treated as such.
Regional seismicity is encountered also at the subduction
zones either in the south Philippines Sea or in east Indonesia
at Kalimantan. In addition to these, other seismic activities are
also present but they are excluded because of the large dis-
tances separating them from the investigated area.
The tectonics of the south Philippines Sea has been
studied by several researchers (e.g. Acharya (1979), Hori
(2006), Galgana et al (2007), Ramos and Tsutsumi (2010),
and Lin and Lo (2013)). The distance between the south
Philippine Sea seismicity and the state of Sabah is around 600
km indicating that only large earthquakes of magnitudes
greater than 7 can produce some damage specifically to the
eastern parts of Sabah (figure 3). The tectonic activities of the
south Philippine Sea are concentrated along the Manila
Trench, the Philippine Trench, and the Philippine fault sys-
tem. Acharya (1979) indicated that the west Philippine basin
has moderate to high seismicity with magnitudes up to 7.9.
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A E Khalil et al
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From historical data, we cannot identify damage in Sabah
related to the activity in the southwestern Philippine region.
Seismicity from south Indonesia is higher due to the
subduction of the Indian and Australian plates beneath the
Sunda plate (e.g. Petersen et al (2007), and Katili (1989)).
High seismicity is observed along the Sunda subduction zone,
where shortening and strain are accommodated by thrust
faults along the collision boundary. However, such activities
are so far from the study region that their effects are excluded.
Henceforth, south Indonesia sources will not be considered
the present seismic hazards assessments.
Probabilistic seismic hazard
This technique was first introduced to the community by
Cornell (1968), who defined the technique as the plot of the
relationship between ground motion levels (e.g. intensity,
peak ground velocity, and peak ground acceleration) with
their average return periods. The concept has been developed
over the years by many researchers (e.g. McGuire
and Shedlock 1981, Kijko and Sellovel 1992, Kijko and
Graham 1999, McGuire 2001, Mäntyniemi et al 2004,
McGuire 2008, Gupta 2013, Wong 2014, and Pappin
et al 2015).
J. Geophys. Eng. 15 (2018) 13
Figure 8. Spectral acceleration for Sandakan at periods of (a) 0.01 s, (b) 1 s and (c) 2 s. Uniform hazard curve is shown in (d).
According to the abovementioned definition, earthquake
source zones in the neighborhood of the inverstigated site
must be defined. The definition involves the determination of
the spatial extention, the frequency of earthquakes with a
certain size (e.g magnitudes or seismic moments) and their
expected return periods. The spatial extention is delineated
using various information such as the tectonic regime, focal
mechanism, distribution of earthquake foci, etc. Within each
earthquake source, the seismic activity is assumed to be
homogeneous. The frequency of earthquakes and their return
period, on the other hand, is derived from the magnitude
frequency relation of Gutenberg and Richter (1944):
log (n) = a - bM
where n is the number of earthquakes, M is their magnitude
range, a is a measure of seismicity (earthquake rate) and b is a
constant related to the tectonic setting. The later has a value
ranging generally between 0.8 and 1.2. However, since the
original relation does not exhibit a maximum earthquake
magnitude, a doubly truncated equation was proposed by
Cornell and Vanmarcke (1969). From the frequency–magni-
tude relation, the return period of each magnitude level can be
A E Khalil et al
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determined. Such a parameter is important for the determi-
nation of its probability.
After the determination of the earthquzke source zones
and their activity rates, the levels of the ground motion at the
site of interest must be calculated. This is done using the
ground motion prediction equations (GMPE). These
equations are empirically generated relating the ground
motion at the site to the magnitude and distance of the
earthquake source. Such relation can be represented mathe-
matically in the form (simplified after Akkar and Bommer
2007):
log (A) = b1 + b2 M + b3 M 2 + (b4 + b5 M ) log
(1 ) ´ (R ) + b 6 S + b 7 F (2 )
where A is ground motion parameter, M is the size of the
earthquake (i.e. magnitude or moment), R is the distance
between the earthquake source and the site, S is the soil factor
and F is the fault type factor. The parameter bi, where i=1 to
7, is the model parameter to be determined by data fitting.
GMPE can also be estimated at certain spectral frequencies of
the ground motion to determine the spectra of ground motion
at the site. The final stage after the calculations of the ground
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J. Geophys. Eng. 15 (2018) 13
Figure 9. Spectral acceleration for Lahad Datu at periods of (a) 0.01 s, (b) 1 s and (c) 2 s. Uniform hazard curve is shown in (d).
motion levels from different sources and their respective
return periods is to build the probability model that deter-
mines the overall probability of exceedance of each level.
Earthquake sources
Local seismicity of Sabah is distinctive from other parts of the
Malaysian territories. Moderate earthquakes are experienced
at three main locations. These locations are near Ranau,
Sandakan, and Semporna. The first is the more dangerous as it
is located close to Kota Kinabalu, the capital city of the state.
The Ranau activity is most likely an intraplate earthquake
activity that results from movements along local quaternary
faults (Tjia (2007) and Wah (2011)).
Seismological data of Ranau shows that the earliest
earthquake in this region took place in the early 1990s. From
the temporal point of view, three clusters can be identified.
The first took place on 26th May 1991 represented by four
events with magnitudes ranging from 4.6 to 5.4. Another
event took place in 1995 with a magnitude of 4.1. Afterwards,
the area was quiet until 2015 when a large earthquake with
magnitude Mw=6.0 shocked the region. The lack of
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A E Khalil et al
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earthquake data before 1991 is odd and may be interpreted as
being related to the distribution of seismological stations in
the region. Thus, local seismicity prior 1991 may be either not
detected or misallocated. Accordingly, the earthquake data is
clearly not sufficient for determining the basic parameters for
such seismic source characterization. Alternatively, Wells and
Coppersmith (1994) proposed an alternative source descrip-
tion based on the data driven from active faults. Fortunately,
the Quaternary active faults in the area were investigated by
Tjia (2007). From figure 1 above, the distribution of recorded
seismicity and Quaternary faults in the region are presented.
The seismicity of this area will be related to the lengths of the
active faults there.
A similar situation prevails in Sandakan region. Seismi-
city there is scarce and too rare for the fitting of the fre-
quency–magnitude relation. Henceforth, it is not possible to
determine the recurrence of seismic activity there. Unlike
Ranau, no information about active faulting is available. This
makes the delineation of required seismic source parameters a
difficult task. Hence, the activity there is omitted for the
present study.
J. Geophys. Eng. 15 (2018) 13
Figure 10. Spectral acceleration for Keningau at periods of (a) 0.01 s, (b) 1 s and (c) 2 s. Uniform hazard curve is shown in (d).
Activity in Semporna region, on the other hand, is con-
sidered as belonging to the Kalimantan subduction zone of
east Indonesia. Semporna is close to Kalimatan with seismi-
city covering the entire region without identifiable borders.
Henceforth, it will be dealt with as part of the regional seis-
micity rather than the local one.
From the seismotectonic discussion in the previous
section, it is identified that we have two potential regional
sources that may cause considerable shaking in Sabah. These
sources are the south Philippines and Kalimantan subduction
zone. The identification of seismic sources adopted in the
present work was taken from the work of Irsyam et al (2010).
The needed parameters for the seismic hazard calculations are
shown in figure 4. Sources considered are those at distances
less than 600 km that are expected to have considerable
effects on Sabah.
Attenuation model
There are several GMPE that can be can be categorized in
terms of their tectonic environment (i.e. subduction zone and
shallow crustal earthquakes). Henceforth the selection of an
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appropriate attenuation relationship is one of the critical fac-
tors in PSHA. As the tectonic environments near Sabah
comprise both the abovementioned types, different forms of
GMPE will be used. For subduction zone earthquakes, several
attenuation relationships are derived such as Crouse (1991),
Youngs et al (1997), Atkinson and Boore (1997), and
Petersen et al (2004), whereas for shallow crustal earth-
quakes, attenuation relationships developed by Campbell
(1997, 2003), and Toro et al (1997) are frequently used.
Previous works assumed that the damage of the earth-
quake in Sabah and Borneo was triggered solely by the large
earthquakes from Sulawesi, Indonesia, and the southern
Philippines which are all subduction zones. Hence, previous
studies (e.g. Harith et al (2014) and Adnan et al 2008) have
used the GMPE model for subduction zones. The later used
Campbell (2003) for calculation of distant earthquake and
Sadigh et al (1997) and Boore et al (1997) for short distance
earthquakes. Sabah is located on the stable continent of the
Sunda Plate and there is no GMPE which has been derived
specifically for this area. As an alternative approach,
attenuation models had been developed from analogous
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Figure 11 Spectral ground motion at Sabah for 500 years return period at the periods (a) 0.5 s, (b) 1 s, (c) 2 s and (d) 3 s.

Figure 12. Spectral ground motion at Sabah for 1000 years return period at the periods (a) 0.5 s, (b) 1 s, (c) 2 s and (d) 3 s.

regions which were considered to possess similar seismo- such as the Philippines and Sulawesi megathrust, Youngs
tectonics and geological conditions. Therefore, in this study, a et al (1997) is applied because it possesses a similar unit and
GMPE which derived for the stable continent for another covers the same range of spectral response period with GMPE
region was applied. For subduction zones, on the other hand, for the stable continent as mentioned above.

22
J. Geophys. Eng. 15 (2018) 13
Figure 13. Spectral ground motion at Sabah for 2500 years return period at the periods (a) 0.5 s, (b) 1 s, (c) 2 s. and (d) 3 s.
Result interpretation
PSHAs were conducted for six cities in the state of Sabah. For
each site, the results are represented in terms of a uniform
hazard curves for the return periods of 500, 1000 and 2500
years. Moreover, the exceedance probability curves of
expected intensity (acceleration in cm s−2) are also presented
for the periods of 0.01, 1.0 and 2.0 s (figures 5–10). Finally,
the spectral intensity (acceleration) is also mapped for the
next 500, 1000 and 2500 years at the periods of 0.5 s, 1 s, 2 s,
and 3 s (figures 11–13.)
The results showed that the expected ground motion
levels at both Ranau and Lahad Datu are the highest, with the
latter showing the highest expected ground motion levels in
the return periods considered in the present work. The reason
for this is the proximity of both sites to active earthquake
sources. Compared to previous studies (e.g Adnan et al
(2008)), the results for Ranau deduced from the present study
show higher level of expected ground shaking. This is a direct
impact of considering local seismic sources for the pre-
sent work.
The results for Ranau (figure 5), show generally lower
annual probability of occurrences (panels (a), (b) and (c))
compared to both Tawau and Lahad Datu (figures 7 and 9).
This is a consequence of a lower rate of local seismicity at
Ranau compared to that of the Kalimantan subduction zone.
The uniform hazard curve (panel (d)), on the other hand,
illustrates that the spectral acceleration near Ranau is the
second highest after Lahad Datu.
Other cities considered in the present study show the
relatively lower level of expected ground motions. However,
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the magnitude of ground motion shows a general decrease
from southeast to the northwest until Ranau and Kota Kina-
balu where local seismicity produces an anomalous ground
motion trend.
Conclusion
PSHAs are applied for six cities in Sabah state, east Malaysia.
The study is fueled by two main reasons. First, Sabah shows
extraordinary earthquake activities compared to other regions
of Malaysia. Second, the occurrence of a moderate earthquake
with magnitude Mw=6.0 in June 2015 which produce some
damage to buildings and caused the death of some tourists
near Mount Kinabalu. Previous seismic hazard assessments
were mostly deterministic and ignored the local earthquake
sources near Ranau. The present study, on the other hand, is
designed to overcome these limitations in the previous ones.
The earthquake records of local seismicity near Ranau
are extremely short with the earliest activities dated in 1991.
Since then, few events occurred until the largest one took
place in June 2015. Such seismic data is insufficient to
characterize the source parameters near Ranau. Fortunately,
geological studies revealed that earthquake activities are
related to Quaternary active faults. The lengths of the deli-
neated faults are adopted using the model in Wells and
Coppersmith (1994) to characterize the local seismic activity
there.
Furthermore, adopting the PSHA technique was not
carried out in Sabah before this work. The advantage is the
definition of the effects of different ground motion levels
J. Geophys. Eng. 15 (2018) 13
rather than the maximum earthquake alone. This will con-
siderably change the measures used to design earthquake
resistant structures. Moreover, the results obtained showed
that the ground motion levels estimated for return periods of
500, 1000 and 2500 years, are largest near Lahad Datu and
decrease in the northwest direction until Ranau. Around
Ranau, the ground motion levels show an anomalous increase
due to the local activities there. This ground motion anomaly
was omitted in the previous studies. Henceforth, the ground
motion levels obtained here are more realistic than previous
ones. The new assessments may be useful for both pre-
paredness and mitigation of earthquakes in the state of Sabah.
ORCID iDs
Amin E Khalil https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8383-2133
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