Land Use Change Analysis in A Highway Cooridor An Application of Markov Model Using GIS

,
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LAND USE CHANGE ANALYSIS IN A HIGHWAY
l. CORRIDOR: AN APPLICATION OF MARKOV MODEL
USING GIS
MD. AROZ ULLAH
,
IIIIIIIII~IIIIIII~IIIIIIIII
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DEPARThIENT OF URBAN & REGIONAL PLANNT1'\G
I BANGLADESH UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AJ'I,1) TECHNOLOGY
DHAKA
,
CORRIDOR: AN APPLICATION OF MARKOV MODEL
USINGGlS
BY
MD. AROZ ULLAH
A thesis submitted to the Department of Urban and Regional Planning Bangladesh

University of Engineering and Teelmology, Dhaka III Partial full111mentof the
requirement for the degree
of
Master of Urban and Regional Planning
DEPARTMENT OF URBAN & REGIONAL PLANNING

BANGLADESH UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY
DIIAKA
August 1999
•
ACCEPTANCE FORM

CORRIDOR: AN APPLICATION OF MARKOV MODEL
USING GIS
BY
MD. AROZ ULLAH
111esis approved as to the style and content by
~IS9z
Dr. Sarwar Jahan Chairman, Supervisor
Professor
Department of Urban & Regional Planning
<:: ~~)
~~"'1 Mcmber
Dr. Mohammad A. Mohit h Officio
Professor and Head
,~ --:
Member
Dr~
~UUl Quium
Professor
Dr. Tanvir A. Khan Member, Extemal

Profes50r
Adjunct Faculty Member, MSM-IUB:MBA Program
Independent University of Bangladesh
DEPARTMF.NT OFURBA.'1 & REGIONAL PLAl'i"NIi'lG

BANGLADESH UNIVERSITY OF ENGII\EERING AND TECHNOLOGY
DHAKA
Acknowledgement
At first ali praises belong to AlmIghty Allah, (he most MeTeifuI, the most Beneficent to
man and his action,
I express my profound gratirnde and indebtedness to my thesis supervisor Dr. Sarwar

Jahan, Professor, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Bangladesh University of
Engineering and TedUlology (BUET), Dhaka., for his valuable guidance at different
stages of my research work. I am very much pleased to work under him, It would have
been quite impossible to carry on this research work and give it a tinal shape without his
advice and sympathetic encouragement.
I also express my sincere acknowledgement to Dr, M.A. Mohit, Professor and Head,
Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Bangladesh University of Engineering and
Teclmology (BUET), for his thoughtful advice, inspiration and providing facilities with
necessary support to undertake and successfully complete the research work.
I am also indebted to Dr, A.S.M Abdul Quium, Professor, Department of Urban and
Regional Planning, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUEl),
Dhaka, for his valuable suggestions to prepare this thesis at ,hfferent stages.
I am grateful to Dr. Tanvir A. Khan, Professor, Independent University of Bangladesh

(IUB), Dhaka, for his valuable suggestions to prepare this thesis at different stages.
lowe a great deal to Mr. Quamrul Islam Siddique, ChairmaJ\ Bangladesh Power
Development Board (Ex Chief Engineer, Local Government Engineering Department) for
hIS \'aluable commenls.
1,am also grateful to Mr, OJ, Osternman, (DHV consultant. The Netherlands), "learn
Leader, FAP 5B (Meghna Estuary Study), who inspired me all the time,
I wish to express my deep sense of gratirnde to all of my teachers m the Department for
thcir bcnevolent cooperation and encouragcment during the course of research.
I also thank thc pcople of the study area in gencral and persons in panicular including
LGED XEN oillce staff, Jcssore, in partIcular, wIth whom I had dctailed discussion about
land use patterns of the locality.
Finally, inspite of the best possible cooperation from everyone, errors and inadequaeics
remain in the study for which I alonc am responsible.
August, 1999 MD. AROl ULLAH

Abstract
The highway corridor cOimecling growing urban centres of Jessore pOl.lrashava has
improved the accessibility for various indi\.idl.lals and institutions occupying land
adjacent to the corridor and thus provides opporlunity for new land uscs. This opportunity
for new functional actlVlties usually leads to intensified development along the highway
and provides a challenge to planners who seek orderly land development. In this study an
attempt has been made to detennine the patterns and rnagmlude ol'land usc changes over
a period of 18 years. The resuHs of the analysis indicate that significant developments
took place in the corridor bel\veen 1977 and 1995. The analysis provides us \vith some
knowledge about the changes in the diversily of development. In order to determine the
equilibrium stage of lhe process of changes in land use as well as to establish the
relationship belween diflcrent land uses in the process of lhe change a Markov model of
land use change has al,o been developed. The developed model allow, a means of
lorecasting land use changes independently. The informalion base lor the research also
includes satellite images and hmd I.lsemaps. It provides an efficient means of analysis of
land usc change in a highway corridor over a long period of time.
1t has been found that significanl development occurred during the study period in the
highway corridor under stndy. The restills of the analysis shows that the degree of land
use diversity in the study area increased graJually dl.u;ng this period.
This study has made a comprehensl\fe analysis of land usc changes in the highway
corridor under study and has thus added to our general understanding of the paUems and
process of land use changes in a corridor. The knowledge of the Jj11aIlllC8 of land use
changes in a highway corridor, however, should be followeJ by proper policies to address
problems resl.llting from such changes.
Finally, the study, therefore, can be replicated in other highway corridors as wcll as
rapidly growing urban areas in the country through which valuable insights can be gained
,
about land I.lsechanges in these areas.
, •
Table ofContent~
CHAPTER TITLE PAGE
Ackl10\\ ledgemcnt IV-V
Ab,tn!ct ~
Tables ofcoments Vil-IX
I.isl of' ligures ,

r,islol-lahles
"
Lislofmaps m
Ahbrc\'lal;On and acronyms Xlll
CHAPTER! INTRODUCTION
Introduction 1-2
1.1 Objectives of the study 2
1.2 Study area 2-3
U rhe re,earch framework 3
- The time period
1.4 Methodology 4-7
104.1 Dala Col1eclion
1 4.2 DalH Analysis
15 Limitation 7
1.1 Conclu,ions 7
CHAPTER 2 DEVELOPMENT OF HIGHWAY CORRIDORS SOME

THEORJ:iTlCAL AND EMPIRICAl STUDIES
2 Introduction 8
21 Theory of land use 8

22 The principles of 131ld use theory 3Ild the 9-11
development of corridor,
2.3 COtlCillSions 11
CHAPTERJ LAND USE CHANGES IN THE STUDY AREA
3 Introduction 12
3.1 Land use changes in the study area 12-13
3.1 .1 Open vacant land
3,1.2 Residential use
3,1.3 Instirntiollal use
3,1.4 Industrial use
3.1.5 Commercia! use
3,2 Conclusions 14
CHAPTER 4 LAI\D USE DIVERSITY IN THE STUDY AREA
4
c
Introduction 15
4.1 Single usc parcels 17
4,2 Parcels with t\.vo types of uses 18
4.3 Parcel" with three types of uses 20
4.4 Parcc1s with fOUf types of uses 22
45 Overall analysis 23
CHAPTER 5 MARKOV ANALYSIS 01' LAl\'D USE CHANGE IN THE

STUD!: AREA
5 Introdllction 24
5.1 Description of land use change as a Markov 24-27
process
5,2 Mean Slay Timc(MST) 27
5,3 Mean First Passage Time (MFPT) 28

5.4 Compllled Results and Analysis 29-31
Projectcd Future Land Use Patterns 32-33
5.6 Conclusions 34
CHAPTER 6 RELEVANCE OF THE STUDY FOR CORRlDOR

DEVELOPMENT IN DHAKA
6 Intrm!uction 35
Past aJld Present Growth Patterns of Dhaka city 35-38
"
6,2 AnalY8is or Future Gro\\1h Patterns 39-43
6.2.1 Transportation and Traffie Problems
6.2 2 Urban Services and Facl1ities

6.2 3 Housing Supply
6.2 4 Em.ironment Pollution
6.3 Conclusions 43-44
CHAPTER 7 CONCI,USIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Conc1Hsions and Recommendations 45-47
References 48-51
List of Figures
FIGURE NO. TITLE PAGE
3.1 D"l"bulion of urban land usc 1977,1984 and 1995 14

4.1 D1\ ~r" ly of land use change (1977-84, 1984-95, 1977-95) 16
4.2 D1\'Cr"ly of land use 1977 17
4.3 D1\'CI"<;;lyoflandusc I<JS4 18
4.4 Com bmalion or two types ofland use: 1977,1984 and 1995 19
4,5 Dl\'~r,,(y orland use 1<J95 20
4.6 Combll1ation ofHuee lypes ofland use:1977, 1984 and 1995 22
4.7 COl1lbl11~tionof fOLlftype, orland use;1977,1984 and 1995 23
6.1 The figme shows the urb~nized area in Dhaka city between 37
l\l"Sler Plan 1959-1979anu 1991
6.2 SPL grouping by 1981-1991 growth characteristics 38
6.3 Populallon Forecast, 1981-2016(Area of 1981 Dhaka SMA) 40
List of Tables
TABLE NO. nl'LE PAGE
1,1 Lis(of ,nopscollectedfromditklcnt source< ,

3.1 LandL1'C
cbangesill tbe ,rudy orca(Landw;o 1~77) 984 and 1995)
"
4.1 Combm,tH\n"f1and use typesby parrels: 1977,1984and 19'95
"
4.2 C()TJlbllLalWn
of two typesofland u,e' 1977,1~84 and 1~~5
"
4.3 Combinalionof threetypesofland me: 1977,1984and 1~~5
"
4.4
5I
Combmai"mof four rypesofloncllise: 1977,1984and 19'95
Analy';" "I landu,e cbange(198~-1995)
"
30_31
5.2 ESllnl",d 'nd ob,,,,,"cd Land l;," Pattern, of 19'95OIldASSOCIated

"iruil<1uly
Indices
"
5,3 Predictedland Use Pattems
61 Pelcen'"gc or (malincreasein laLldandpnpulation1983-1991
62 Populot",,,changesm DbakaMctmpolilanArea 1961_2016
6,,1 DMDT' ~"nlral population forecast, 1981-2016( Population
in IhUllo,mdS)
List of maps
MAP NO. TITLE PAGE
1.1 Bangladesh national reference map 7.1

12 Jessore S"dar lhana map 7.2
1.3 Jessore j)(\LLI"a.,hava map 7.3
14 Jessore pOllnlohava study area map 7.4
3.1 Study area map of 1977 14.1
3.2 S(lldy area map of 1984 14.2
3.3 Study area map of 1995 14.3
4.1 Laml uoc:div~rsity map, 1977 17

4.2 LamJ usc:diversity map, 1984 18
4.3 Land usc diversity map, 1995 21
Abbreviation and Acronyms
LGED Local Government Engineering Department

GIS Geographical Information System
CAD Computer Aided Design
GPS Global PosItioning System
FORTRAN Formula Translation (A high level programming language)

UDD Urban Development Directorate
SPARRSO Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization
BBS Bangladesh Bureau ofStatisties
1DRlST A Image Processing Sofhvare
RESP Rural Employment Sector Programme
CorelDraw A good Color drafting software
Vol Volume
Nos Numbers
KM Kilo Meter
MATMUL MatTix Multiplication
SPZ Strategic Plannlllg Zone
DMDP Dhaka Metropolitan Development Plan
PPA Persons Per Acre
SMA Statistical Metropolitan Area
XEN Executive Engineer
DRV A consulting firm bascd at Netherlands
•
CllAYfER I
INTRODUCTION
I Introduction
Jessore is one of the oldest urban centres in Bangladesh. Jessore pourashava is a district
headquarters, which is also considered as a secondary tovonin Bangladesh. It is located in the
south-west comer of Bangladesh with Sathkhira and Khu1na on its south. Jessore is of great
importance in the regional and national context. It provides linkage of south-west region with the
rest of the country. The town has developed as an important transportation node. A good
condition road transportation node mostly in the urhan area is required for town development.
The spatial distribution of servIces depends basically on population distribution (leIMOn,
1994). As a result, various types of trade and commercial activities are generated there. Hence,
the town has itself established as an important business centre, This acts as pool factor for in-
migration into the town. As a consequence, people migrating from rural areas to the town create
excessive pressure on most valuable L1rbanland. Due to the excessive in-migration and lack of
adequate regulatory measures and gUldingprinciples, spontaneous and haphazard growth takes
place. It is found that Jessore urban centre, established around transportation nodes still continue
to extend along both sides of highway roLlte.This extension is also taking place in an unplanned
way due to lack of adequate guiding principles. Therefore, there is a need for proper policy for
guiding future land use along the transportation route. The present study is intended to find out
the trends in land use changes along the highway route with a view to evolve a guide line for
directing future land use. The Markov Model has been used to analyse the clu13gcsin land usc
pattern in J essore pourashava,
There are many forecasting prohlems in urban and regional studies which are essentially
probabihstlC. The Markov model provides an efficient framework for dealing with such
problems. In this model, one introduces the notion of dependence of each trial on the results of
its predecessors. The advantage of this method is that it helps in gaining insights ahoul the
system behavior which otherwise would have remained unnoticed. In the domain of land usc
plmming, modelling of land use change as a Markov process was attempted by a number of
authoTS.Bourne(1969, 1976) utilized the Markov model to predict land usc in the central city,
and to address the questions of process stability and similarity. Bell (1975-1979) used this model
in order to evaluate the process of land use change while Robinson (1978) explored the utility of
the model by examining the relationships between dIfferent types of land use environments. All
these studies showed that the Markov model is capable of addressing se~eral important issues
concerning land use change.
In this study, it is intended to look into the process of land use change as a Markov process and
cxamine the interrelationships among different types of land uses. Although some land use
studies in Bangladesh are available, none of these studies dealt with the inter-relatedness of land
usc types in the process of change ami future land use patterns. For example, Choudhury(1990)
studied the changes in land use in Savar over a period of 14 years, but the study did not examine
lhe characteristics of the land use change process, nor did il throw any light on the patterns of
land use in future. Other studies (Karim, 1996; Khan, 1993; Haque, 1977) mainly dealt with
existing land use patterns and related problems so as to formulate suitahle planning policies,
None of these studics were concerned with the land use change process and how this process
.mlght affect future land usc patterns, In contrast with these sludies, the present study follows a
more specific approach_The objective of the present study is to examine the various aspects of
the land use change process so that future land use patterns could be predicted more accurately.
1.1 Objectives of the study
The main objective of this srndy is to analyse the land use changes with the application or
Markov model in Jessore pourashava arca.
The specilic objectives of the study are:
••.. To describe past and present land usc in thc study area and determine the patterns and
magnitude of land use changes over a period of 18 years.
~ To develop a Markov model of land use change so as to determine the relatlOnshlpbetween

land use types and fulure land use patterns; and
••.. To develop land use planning policics for a balanced development of the area
1.2 The Study area
The present study attempts to describc and explain variation and changes in land uses in an area
traversed by a hIghway. Jes.sore is one of thc largest urbans centre in Bangladesh. Jessore
.1llI
-.'. "f)-
pourashava IS a district headquarter which is also considered as a secondary town in Bangladesh
(Map 1,1). By mr from the capital city of Dhaka it is about 140 KM while by road and railway
this distance is nearly double. Considering tnmsportation network, Jcssore sadar thana holds a
very important position in the whole of Khulna division (M:ap 1.2).
Jessore provides an important stopover for the national highway bel\.veen the capital cIty Dhaka
and port city Khulna, Being an important land transport junction and air route of Jessore
pauIa5hava are also directly accessible to the different rcgional / national townships. Several
high",ays pass through this paurashava as shown in map 1,3. Intensive developments are taking
place on both sides of there highways. The present study attempts to describe and analyse the
variations and changes of land usc along these highways, Only the portions of the highways have
heen selected for study which experiences more intensive developments (Map 1.4). Since urban
corridor development is mainly a linear form, we have selected a dislance of two hundred meters
on both sides of highways perpendicular to them. Two factors were mainly responsible for
choosing this area. Firstly, we needed an area which could provide sumcient scope for satisfying
our objectives as mentioned earlier. A corridor like this poses more problems for planners than a
corridor experiencing less intensive development which justifies the selection of the area.
Secondly, past information on land use of the area was also available which made it possible to
apply the Markov model.
1.3 The Research Framework

The time period
The main element of this research is to determine the land use changes in the study area through
. interpretation of the source maps. The source maps were collected from UDD, LGED and
Jessore Zila parishad, In addition, Spot Panchromatic Satellite image was collected from I.GED
for updating the data. The time span over which this land use change occurs is 1977 to 1995.
1984 was chosen as the intemlediate year. Availability of Spot PanchromalJc Satellite image as
well as land use and topographic maps were the important reasons for selecting these years.
•
L'4 Mrihodology
Resoarch Diagram of this Study
lAND USEMODE~
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._- " __ __
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eouroo map (1:10,000 SPOT
p:lIlnchrompllc Image
•.•.,
.. 1995 Data
1964 Data
1977 Data
•
1.4.1 Data collection
For the purpose of the present study portions of the old highway connecting Jessore pOllrashava
with Jhenidha and Khulna, and the new Jessore by-pass road has been taken as a stlldy area.
Land use changes on both sides of the selected portions of the highway corridor have been
studied. lbe types of land uses which have been studied included open vacant land, Residential,
Water, Institutional, Industry and Commercial etc. Land use data has been collected for 1977
(Local slJIVey),1984 (UDD, 1984) WId 1995( GIS - CAD cell, LGED, 1996) and land use
changes have analyzed for the periods 1977-1984, 1984- 1995 and 1977-95.
Secondary land IJse data relevant to the stlJdy has been collected from various sources slJch as
Urban Development Directorate (lIDD), Local Government Engineering Department (LGED)
and Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization (SPARRSO). The data has shown past
lrends orland use in the study area (For the periods of 1984 and 1995), A field survey has been
condllcted in thc study area ta obtain present patterns of land use.
The preparation of land use maps far the study area involved several stages. In the first stage,
Jessorc sadar thana base map was prepared to the scale I: 50,000 for the year 1995. The spot
panchromatic satellitc images were then interpreted through the use of ground truth, Through a
process of lnal and crror and the use of various interpretation keys available in relevant literature
on spot image interpretation different types of land use were identified. The resulting informalion
was then verified and readjusted with the help of available land use maps as well as the .Iessoee
Zila Parishad office. A list of maps has been given below:
Table 1.1 : List of maps collected from different sources

N.mo of thd'1ly T""" o[map' "".10 D,," orp",p''''"O" 50O"'"
)"''''0 P,,",,,-,h,,, Th:ul. b,,,, m,p
• :'<J,1)()fI 1~91 LGED
OlJlJ
Poo",h,," ",,", PI.n Mdp 1:4,~OO
J,,,o," POll"'''''''' map I W,OOO ""
1995 LGEll
LGED. [Sr
SPOT P"",h""".", ""P I W,OOO
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Poo""h.va ~,,"Ih,,, "'''"' ""p 1:10,000 1'l'!j LC,ElJ. [SP
"'am ""000"')' map SOH
Z,I. P,mh.; map(Jmm<) "I.P,n,1wl

GPS map 1 10.000 WED
I''I'''W'I'hk m.p 1'10.000

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1'''4 LGED
1.4.2 Data Analysis
Using the above mentioned data, detailed land use maps have prepared by using AutoCAD & PC
ARCIINFO for the periods under study. The study area was divided into 1706 cells or quadrants
each with approximately 0.99 acre of land for analyzing land use changes over-time. The
methods used to describe, measure and predict the land use changes in the srndy area arc
discussed below. The methodologies for the detailed analysis arc described in subsequent
chapters.
• The first phase of the study involved the investigation of past and present land uses m the
study area. For this purpose land uses in the study area were grouped into the following
categories:
• Open - vacant uses which includes open ~acant, agncullural land and unused urhan land
• Residential uses which include single through multl-faml1yresident,al areas
• Water bodies uses which includes river, khal, pond, and marsh area etc.
• Institutional uses which include schools, park, play grounds, public utilities and other like
uses
• Industrial uses which include aUsorts of light and heavy industries; and
• Commercial uses which include Market, types of Machinery firm, workshop etc.
There were two reasons for grouping land uses mto the above categones. FIrstly, there were the
limitations in interpreting images. The open vacant lands were grouped together because it was
not always possible to differentiate these categories. Although residential use could be further
classified it "'as difficult to classify further eommerclal and industrial eategones. The pmblem
was morc acute in case of commercial uses.
The proportion of the total area occupied by each category of land use in each year was then
calculated which made It possible to determine the magnitude of changes in each land use during
the study periods. The analysis of patterns and changes in land use was [oHowed by an analYSIS
of land usc diversity to fulfill the second objective. The land use diversity was analyzed
cartographically. Several sets of maps were produced in which attempts were made to give a
visual summary of the diversity of land use in the study area. Each map set was followed by
lables shov,ing the degree of land use drvefSlly, grouped into diITerent eatcgories, in pcrcent of
total land use.
1.5 Limitations
This study has a number of limitations. Some of them are related to the scope of this study. For
example, in this stlJdy only the land usc factor has been considered in forecastmg land use
changes. But, land use changes depend on other factors also. It would have been better if other
factors, especially the socio-economic factor, could have been considered. The study has taken
into account only the adjacent area of thc road corridor. A wider area would have enabled to
study the influence of the road corridor to a grcater extent. In some cases, the absence of
adequate data has crcated obstacles in proper forecasting. The available sofhvare packages and
computer programs were not sufficient for comprehensive study. Logistic supports that arc
required for this kind of study were not enough. The secondary data such as area maps and land
usc maps were not adequate. Fund and time constraints are the other limitations of this srndy.
1.6 Conclusions
The thesis IS divided into SlXchapters. The !irst chaptcr sets out the research objcctivcs and the
methodologies to satisfy thesc objectives. The second chapter is devoted to a discussion of some
land \lse theories in an attempt to explain the development of transportation corridors. Tn the third
chapler an attempt is made to describe the general land use patterns in the sc1ectcd ycars and to
detennine the magnitude of land use changes during the study period. The fOlJflh chapter is
devoted to an analysis of land use diversity in terms of the combmation of land use types in the
parcels of land which the whole area has been divided. In the fifth chapter a Markov model of
land use change is developed in order to obtain some knowledge ahout the projection of land use
paUcms. Chapter six includes summary and rcconuncndation.
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CHAPTER 2
DEVELOPMENT OF HTGH\VAY CORRIDORS:

SOME THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL STUDIES
2 Introduction
The purpose of this chapler is to givc a brief outline ofsome important land use theones and also
somc cmpirical studies related to corridor development. The present thesis concentrates to
discuss the basic factors, which attract persons and activitics to form such a comdor. A
transportatlon corridor is an urban phenomenon. The land use theories which providc normative
dcscriptions of urban structurc can be helpful in gelling an idca as to why developments take
place along major highways or transportation routes. A volume of empirical studies related to
corridor development is also discussed in this chapter in order to aehicve some knowledge as to
how the present study ditTcrs from these in terms of the nature of contribution, Some empirical
shldies of generali~ed naturc, which will lead to a beUer appreciation of the objectives and
melhodology of the prcsent study,
2.1 TheoI)' of Land Use
The literature on land use theory has focus~ed on economic factors as the basic determinants of
land use. A volumc of land usc models exist using as their central thcme the concept of economic
rent. Two mcn, Ricardo (1817) and Von Thunen (tR26) cstablishcd this concept as early as the
1830's, but their individual approaches wcrc vcry different. Da'vid Ricardo, morc prominent
among them, mamtamed that the "economic rcnt" of land was the best measure ofthc intcnsity
of demand for land (Mcir and Baldwin, 1966, 25-28), The competition for land, hc stated, varied
with its quality and acccssibility to markets, each parcel going to thc highest bidder. The
schcdule of rcnts based Oil this process served to sort the spatial location of activities, Von
Thunen, on thc other hand, considered transportallon co~t to he the main variable, Thus the type
ofland lise, according to hml, was a function 0(' distancc from a central market, and as a result u
series of concentric bells of diffenng land usc wcrc created around the market. It was Von
Thunen's model \,,'luch drew most aUention from the geographcrs bccause of its emphaSIS on
spatial relatiollsbips. Tn 1923 Burges~ pmposed his classic modcl known as the concentric circle
"
or zonal hypolhe5is. The essence of this model is that as a city grows it expands radially from its
center to form a series of concentric 7,ones (Nelson, 1970, p. 105). Berry in 1959 explained this
finding on the theory that the rent curves averaged for each of the ~ones varied according to the
Clty center (Garrison, 1959, pJ4). He interpreted this variation in rent as representing a
substitution for the cost of transporlallon, thus reiterating the theory tbat land usc is ordered by
the degree of access to a central pom!.
Another model of land use was fOilllLllatedby Homer Hoyt in 1939 and is kr1o"n as the wedge or
sedor tbeory (Hoyt, 1939), Hoyt hypolhe,,~ed that differences in accessibIlity between radial
roLiles from the center of a city caused sectoral variations in land values, and thus, an
arrangement of land use into sectors A1though the sector model is based in regard to the location
of residential zones, it does reeogn'l,e tbe importance of transportation roules, especially arterial
streets and highways. Hoyt found that the land value surface rose al major highway routes which
produced a pattcm of axial development. In 1945, Harris and Ullman produced a third model as
a moditkation of the two previous n.odels, They argued that the land use pattern of a city did not
grow from a single ccnter but around several distind nuclei. This multiple nuclei model
recognized that each land use zone ongmated in response to advantages offered by that
particular district on the inability to use more expensive locations. In a more recenl article,
Ullman poiuted out that development nuclei proliferating outside city cenlers are based on
accessibility 10 large sLiburban markets (Ullman, 1962, pp, 7-23), Shopping ccntcrs, especially,
have located on the high speed transport routes on the penphery 01' cities and large single floor
mm,S production industries have located dose to tbe suhmhan labor markets. In additlOn,
specialized entertainment and edLiCallOnal and recreational activities have been drawn to
suburbi a by the hlgh accessibility transport routes,
2.2 The Principles of Land Use Theory and the Development of the
corridors
Some of the theories discussed above are more or less nonnative descriptions of overall urban
growth and structure, These theories, however, provide useful inlormation on the way in which
transportation corridors develop, Several principles relating to accessibility and land lise can be
identified which can be considered importanl in the development of such corridors, The
competition for sites among alternati\'e llses is largely based on the minimization of the frictional
effects of distance. Von Thunen aml others fO\lnd that since accessibility varies in~ersely with
distance, all other things being equal the arrangement of land use is a functIOn of the cost of
transportation. Related to thIS point 15 the finding that 13nd use patterns reflect an ordered
3djustment to the factor of distance. From his study on urban struetme and urban growth,
Guttenberg concludes th3.t aecessibili(y inlerms ol"time-distanec serves to sort activities spatially
(Gu.ttenberg, 1960, 150). The study found that areas of concentration of activities and
transportation corridors interact continuously, and accessibih(y provides thc organizing rationale
for (he Tesllitant patterns, Mason and Moore pro~ided a generali~ed version of highway corridor
development (Mason 3nd Moore, 1970, 69-80). They maintained that arterial or radials tie
suburban and nonurban area persllns and aetl\ilties to a central city or core area where most of
the economic and social activnies of a comml.lmty take place,
In most large urban area the addition of a new highway paralleling existing radials creates
opportunitics for new radi31 development patterns, This development process takcs place when
the area near the new highway attracts population with new and/or different limctional needs and
when responsive investments are made to meet these needs. The needs of the consumers and
responses of the business firms provide a rational explanation of how a corridor C3n bc pcrceived
and how a meaningfnl analytical framework can be es(abhshed (Mason and Moore, 1970,71),
The attractiveness of an area near a highway, however, is no( (he same for all activities. Berry
fO\lnd that the imporlance of accessibility means different things for different activities. For
example, accessibility to the city center is more important for acthitles like in;tlt\ltions requiring
face to face conlacts (han for hlghway c()lTImer~ialwhich are oriented instead to major arteries
(Garrison, 1959, 86). All activities require access to transportation rollles, but service stations,
for example, reqnire a greater degree of access than do residential uses,
The developments along a new highway uSllally appear (0 be most intense ncar the highway and
near an urban area nodal poml Wh1Chin i(selfis a population mass, usually with diverse land uses
(Mason and Moore, 1970, 1971). The changes that take place along the highway radial rcfleet
additions to gross investments and fllnetional activities by persons and businesscs, and the
specialized land uses (hat result give rise to the perception that a new corridor like area may h3ve
been created, The corridor and the urban area are highly interdependent since each tends to
determine the spatial arrangements of the other. The persons and institutions attracted to the new
radial arc dependent upon the existing major nodal point, and as a result, the new eonidor like
area and the connected urban areas are interacting and indivisible (Mason and Moore, 1970,71).
2.3 Conclusions
The above stlldies disCllSSin a more general way the de~elopment of highway corridors, They
focus on the attractiveness of an area near a higlNay and how such attractiveness lead to the
development of corridors, As regards the relationships between a corridor and an urban area,
these studies pointed out that these are highly interdependent since each tend to determine the
spatial arrangement of the other. These arc obviously important observations, but are of limited
applicabihty as far as local planning is concerned. 1n contrast WIth these stlldies, thc present
study follows a more specific approach. 11investigates the land use aspects in a l11U'ehmore detail
in order to produce some pointed results which could be useful in formulating land usc planning
pohcles.
CHAPTER 3
LAND USE CHANGES IN THE STUDY AREA
3 Introduction
Tn this chapter, an attempt has been made to analyse the patterns of land use change in the study
corridor duting the study period (1977-1995). The same land use categories as mentioned earlier
are considered for this purpose.
3.1 Land use Changes in the Study Area
The results of our analysis indicate that significant development took place along the highway
under study during the study period. This can be observed by comparing the percentage of urban
land in 1977 wllh the percentage of urban land in 1995. In 1977 urban land accounted for only
43 percent of the corridor. In 1995 this increased to about 93 percent. Thus there was an increase
in the amount of urban land between 1977 and 1995. More land was converted into urban uses
between 1984 and 1995 than between 1977 and 1984. Thus more than 41 percent orthe total area
was converted from rural to urban uses between 1984 and 1995 compared to 9 percent bel\veen
1977 and 1984. This shows that the rate of development was higher during the later period and
lower during the earlier period,
3.1.1 Open Vacant Land
The amolmt of open vacant land was the largest in 1977. The amount of this land decreased
drastically between 1977 and 1995. The open vacant land came to be occupied by residential,
instltutlonal, industrial and commercial lISesdllting this period. Thus, the amount of open-vacant
land was 56.88 percent in 1977, which decreased to 47.81 percent in 1984 and 6.64 percent in
1995,
3,1.2 Residential use
The largest share of open vacant land, which is converted into urban uses went to residential use.
In 1977 about 20.37 percent of the area was undcr residential use, The percentage of residential
land increased to about 27.91 pcrcent in 1984 and 63.01 percent in 1995. Thus residential
dcvelopment accounted for about 68.16 percent of the total urban dcvclopment between 1977
and 1995. The rate of residential development was, however, higher between 1977 and 1984.
Each yeor 2.37 percent oflhe total area was converted into residential use on an average during
this period compared to 3.19 percent between 1984 and 1995,
3.1.3 Institutional use
In comparison with residentIal land usc the grow1h of instltutional1and use was quite slow, In
1977 only about 8.38 percent of the study area was under this category, The percentage of this
type of land increased to about 9.18 percent in 1984 and 12.19 percent in 1995. Thus on an
average only 0,13percent of the total area was converted into Institutional use between 1977 and
1984. This shows that the increase in the amount of institutional land during the later period was
higher than the corresponding increase during the earlier period.
3.1.4 Industrial use
The amount of industrial land was the lowest in the area in 1977. Only 0.31 percent of the area
was under industrial use in this year, The amount of industrial land, however, increased by about
1.09 times from 1977 to 1995. Consequently it came to occupy about 0,34 percent of the lotal
area in 1995. Only 0.03 percent of the area was converted into industrial use between 1977 and
1995.
3.1.5 Commercial use
The proportion of industrial land in the study area was also very low in the initial year. Thus in
1977 only 6.75 percent of the whole area was under industrial use. Industrial land, however,
increased by about 1,74 times between 1977 and 1995.1n 1995 it occupied aboul11.78 percent
of the tolal area. 5.03 percent of the area was converted into commercial usc between 1977 and
1995.
\
•
Table 3.1: Land use changes in the study Ql'C8
Study A~.: L.nd Ust 1977,19M IDd 1995
- .-
7n
~1
,~
1:r:I
~1J:I"
%7.tll'l
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,.,
'"
,.
,n,
,.
"'~
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T<UI I 10 100...
l OJ,'!>
IJ' 1._
16111 1000.
,.• 0,01
~
Nq;atI\'l: qp IndiCIItes m,.ezsiou Ia OlllefIISeS

5cmce: Author", Ca1t:uJ;2tiom
Figure 3.1: Distribution of Urban Land Use 1977,1984 aDd 1995
•
• .... ._-
.-
.-
•
3.2 ConclWliom
,
--
The analysis ortlllld use chl~ in lhe ltudy area indicates that quite significant d~lapmetIl
took place along high\\'1Y during the study period. It was round that the development of
residential land 110118the highway was more wenslve during the period of 19!4.199S. MJm of
the converted lands were mainly in open vacant, wllle!'and c:o:nmcrcialuses. It can be predicted
that the study ~ will be in mostly residential usc. It \\"115
observed that the highest petCUJ14gc
of deyelopment took ~ during 1984-1995 and the largest proportion of the Ue3 was
developed for residential purpose. The result5 of the study confirms the finding of Mason and
MOOll:(1970) that peraon:s and institutions attracted 10 the new area are depcndClll upon the
existing major nodal point, and as a result, the.new conidor-Iike ami and the oonnected urban
. . ~,.~
:""C::l::.--emt.emctmg •••.•.
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CHAPTER 4
LAND USI';I)IVERSITY II\' TilE STun\' i\IU~A
4 Introduction
The diversity of land uses in Ihe slll<Jyarea has been :llwlysctl in this chapter. Hassbring (1971,
pp. 94-109) has used the samc mcthodology. For Ihe 1'1II"1'''",e
"r',lllalysis lile whole area (1670
acres) has been divided into parccls each with approxillHltdy 12.S(, acres. Maps are provided for
each of the sub-areas for each year, which shows the dq.:ree of lantilise diversity In each parcel.
Only the number of dilTerent Iypes of land uses Willi ill cuch parcel has been taken into
consideration for this investigation. The folluwing gmups l1"ve heen usetl:
Single !)'pe
• Groupl
Multiple type
• Group2 - Combimlli"l1 of two types
• Group] - Combinatioll of three types
• Group4 - Comhination of four types
Table 4.1 presents the distribution ()f parcels by camhi Illlii"'l 01' 1;,[Idlise type in 1977, 19M and
1995. The idea behind the an~lysis is 10 obtain some ~llnwlcdge "hout Ihe degree of <Jiversity of
land uses in the study area. '1hc degree of diversity ILIl,,1 ill each parcel is indicated by the
number ofland use types ill II. Thus hIgher the numbCl' oi'land lise lypes in a parcel, lhe higher
the degree of diversity in It und Vice versa. In our a1lalysi, t1w highcr group (such as grollp-4)
parcels indicate higher degrecs "I' diversily while th~ lowcr group (such "s gro\lp-2) purcels
indicate lowcr degrecs 0 I'divel'siIy. Group-l parcels ilillic'ule Ill) divcrsi Iy III;Ii1. The ex I;\enee of
a large number ol"higher group parcels may mean a hi~hc'l' dcgrce or divcrsily over a brge area
while a smaller numb~r "I" h'ghcr j.\mup parcels may Illl'LIlI" highcr dcgrec of diversity over a
small are". The van"tions in thc IIllmber of differclll Iypes "I' parcels may be inlerprctcd in
several w"ys. A larg~ numhcr of higher groliP parcels (]I"1:111.1
may mcan abscncc 0 f conlrol and
hapbazard growth. Jt is, howcvcr, difficult to say ullylhing eondu8,vely w,thoul further
investigation. Nevertheless, SUdl an analysis may throw somc Iiglll 011lile probable nalurc 0 I'the
problem.
"
-
Table 4.1: Combination orland use types by parcels: 1977, 1984 and 1995
L.',ND USE CATEGOR\ ,m ,- ,= i'<T<oJJtoF of'l ••••• hr<." c •••••••.••
". % X••• %
" % 1977.l964 '964-1_ 1977_1995
Slop U••
~ "
Sl31 % 0 4%.10 'I.
37.60 'Y.
" Z9J2%
."", _'2.'" _11.05
Combllu.l1oJI
"' " 35.35%
'" " 45.86%
'" 100Sl
'Jp<.of •••
c ••• binatlon
'1PtOofU ••
., ~-
,_. " 14.2"""
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,
,~%
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,
noo ,~
,."
3.7& .,.
c_
lJp<ooru ••
"' • l.~% W% 0.15 W
'f""" m '00" m '00" ,n '00%
, Negative sign indicates conversion to multiple use paroels,

, Source: Author's calculations
Figure 4.1 : Diversity of land use change ( 1977-84, 1984-95 and 197'-95)
Diversity land use change (1977-84,1984-95 and 1977-95)
10 ElSing"""
5
•
-5
-10 ~ .
I:lComb;n.tion "f klor lyp.'
-15 -
.20 -
." 1977-1984 1984-1995 1977-1995

4.1 Single Use Parcels
The change in the degree of diversity can be ob~ from an analysi~ of th" chants,,~in the
number of single use parcels In 1977, single use parcels accounted for about 50 percent of the
total number of parcels indicating that the degree of divenity was low initially which, however,
increased in subsequent years. TIrus, betwoon 1977 and 1995, about 20 percent of the total
number of parcels were converted from single type to muhiple type out of which about 8 percent
were converted between 1977 and 1984 and about 12 percent between 1984 and 1995. The
maximum land wa,
U~" lIre open vacant in 1977. The ~econdhigh",t land use was also the open
vacant in 1984.
Figure 4.2: Diversity of land use 1977
Dlv"rSlty llf 'and US" 1177
I cu,........ I
CC."'.'n'''", of I
twD ••••••
f CCo•••••
n._
",,,.,,po'
"Co"'"' •••••• ol
/0<0. "p.'
'"
I
Map 4.1: Land use diversity map, 1977

4.2 Parcels with two types of uses
Parcels witb two types of uscs increased during the study period, Only 3 (2,25 percent) parcels
are converted into this type between 1977 and 1984 compared to 11(826 percent) parcels
between 1984 and 1995. Thus, the rate of increase per year was higher during the later period.
Parcels with different combinations in this eategol}' are presented in table 4,2, What is apparent
is that by 1995 largest number of parcels had the combination of open-vacant and residential use
(2 I) tbllowed by the combination of residential commercial and residential institutional
Figure 4.3: Diversity orland use 1984
Diversity of land use 1984
j crSlngi. u"
.Com""""" of two.",..
.CombinOllon of tnr<><typo'
C1Combi1Ollonof four '\'1'0'
Year 1984
)-no
s,"," '".
~T.o 'po
:'1
Table 4.2: Combination of two types of land use: 1977, 1984 and 1995
TYI"'or"""J"'l""U
(f""';n"')
"" 1'0,
•••
'".
.•,
"
r ••.•.onto=< orr" •• , r ••.•••• eo"" •••• d
19'17_1_ 1__ '905 .9'17_1905
'"n % %
n
orvm.ES
RESll:>;[)
", ••
16,~~
", 12.78
, m
'.00
15.79
,.
-J.78 3.01
m
_0.7~
,~,
.. ,.
RESlCtJM
RF.SIl'iT ,
UO
0,75
•, m " ""3.Ol 1,~1
U,
7,51
om
9.m
7.27
, ,M "• '"
,• '"
OPVIWM 3.01 _1.5 _I.W
, ,
,• ,~, , m <"
UPVII~" 5,2. ..77 !.ot -J-'",
RF.!<'WAT , ••• ",
, •••
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opvmAT .51 >'25 •3-"1 .[1.7•
WATIl~, , 1).75 , , ••
".7~ ••• .0.75 -'J.7S
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"Artn")~1 .[1.75 .[1.75
,
"75
" ".15 IUH'
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{'t)M!I'iD 1).75 ,00 -!l.7S -!l.75
, "
COWINT '175
" "."" " "-'H' .[1.75 .[1.75
,
" 35.35
• ,,~ " ". >'25 ." 1O.~1
Figure 4.4: Combination of two types of land use: 1977,1984 and 1995
ComblnaUon ottwotypes of land use :1971,1994 and 1995
----,--.-1
[JOPVlRES
BRESIIND
I"IRESICOM
[JRESIINT
i
[JOPVICOM
BOPV~NT
I"IRESIWAT
.OPVIWAT
[JWATIINT
llWATICOM
[JCOM/IND
BCOM/INT
Year 1977 Year 1984 V"ar1995

4.3 Parcels "ith three types of uses
An 8.28 percent of the total number ofparce1s were converted from single typc to a combination
of three type of uses during the study period out of which 6 parcels or 4.52 percent werc
converted between 1977 and 1984 and 5 parcels or 3.76 percent were converted between 1984
and 1995. Thus the ratc of increase was higher during the earlier period.
A combination of open-vacarrt, residential and commercial uses dominated the number of parcels
with three types of use in 1977 But by 1995 the situation changed and maximum number of
parcels were found with a combination of residential, commercial and institutional uses.
Figure 4.5: Diversity of land use 1995
••• 1[,.,,'_
D Q:nljra<n t:f 1M>¥es
BCl:ITIlram t:f1hre1lP's i
EZ,;Z] roo, ""'
Table 4.3: Combination of three types of land use : 1977, 1984 and 1995
'f",. of_l"'<<dI
,.
,m ,~
,.
,~ r~ .. r.,..,...~
'f_
(Th=types)
OPVIllESICOM ".
•, '",.w '" , " 1." , "
3.01
1~?7-1'1l'O
.0.1~
1'Il'O.l 'J'l5
-,~
.o.1~
19'17.)_
OPVJRlI.5J1NT
R1!SlL"OMII:>I'f , 0.7~
• '"o. n,
0
3.01
?78
3.01
.o.1~
-,~ '"
,. ,w
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on.iW'\'fIlNT o• _'."0
WA'fIRF.SI1NT , I.~I 1.51
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•• ,, '" •.'""
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fl!'\'IV •.••1"llN'f
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0.7~
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O_1~ ....1$ o•
RE.sICOII1!11'o:D
, '"
, 0" o.
UPVlWAl"Ilt!S
, '" ,
3.76
,. 3.01 "",DI
-,~
,. . •
OPVICOMII:'IT 1.DI -ll.'S -3.01
, ,.w , ,~ • •• o.
,.
W••l"ICOMII'\T _'.5lI _UD
• o• , ." • ,
OPV!1IESIlND
, ,.
0" -ll.7~
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REI<IL'OMIIND
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• o.
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• ••
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• ,~ .• '" ••
, ."
• n.• ~
."
."
m
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••
•
Figure 4.6: Combination of three types of land use: 1977,1984 and 1995
Comblna1lon oflhrea types ofland use: 19n,1984 ~nd 1995
" r----------- --I 1l0Pll1RES""""

flOl'VIRESlINT
CRES<OOMilNT
• COPIlIWAMNT
",WAliREsnNT
7 ~! 1l000vIWAT,coM
.0000IWATm<T
IICREiS<OOMiIND
I ,IlOPVIWAT"'''"
I ,copwcowm
iOW'T,QJMiM
i::,::=..
I I"RE=MlIND
o
Yeo, ''''''
4.4 Parcels with four types of uses
During the study period only 3 or 2.26 percent of the parcels came to be charaC1eri:zedby four
types of uses, Out of this 2 (1.$0 percent) parcels were converted into this type during the earlier
period while only 1 percent was converted during lhe latter period
There was no parcel with combination of four types of land use in 1977. However, 1984 there
were only two parcels with four types uses while in 1995, the number of parcels with a
combination of four types was only 3 out of which two parcels had the combination of open-
vllcant, residential, water and institutional uses,
Table 4.4: Combination or four types orland use: 1977, 1984 and 1995
Typo.' "•• ,. ••• n >on

,. ,.,- ,m P••.•......., .fToW p""",," Com-,tk<I
(F.,,"Y"')
. .
;-;u. % % % 1'l77_19lU I '1114-1'>95 1977_1_
• , G.," • ,w ,~
OPVIRES/WATIlNT
,
",!H'
." •, ,
0.75 0.75
,.
.-
• •••
.
O""1\U'5K'OMIl~, 0.75 .0.75
OPVIRJ\SI(.'OMIIND
• •• " ••• , ."
• , , ••• '"
, ~, ,~
0.15
0.15 U5
Figure 4.7: Combination offour types orland use: 1977,1984 and 1995
~g'.--
__"_'
..-- ••••••• _ •• _ ,.., 1117, ,_ •••• , •••
"
"
f ,: /1 -,-
,
.--
l" I
" ,
"
• V,,,'977
4.5 Overall Analysis
The analysis of land use diversity in the study area indicates that the degree of diversity
increased during the study period. although to a limited extent. In 1977 about 50 percent of the
total nwnber of parcels were single type parcels while the rest were multiple type of parcels.
Most of the multiple type parcels again belonged to group-2, which indicates a very low degree
of diversity. Between 1977 and 1995, 20.45 percent of the total number of parcels in the study
area were converted from single type to multiple type parcels which reduced the single type
parcels to about 29.55 percent and increased the multiple type parcels to about 70.45 percent of
the total number of parcels in 1995. About half of the parcels, were converted into group 2
parcels which are characterized by a low degree of diversity. Group-3 and group-4 parcels
together experienced similar increases with 10.59 percent of the total number of parcels being
converted in these groups compared to 9.85 percent converted to group-2 parcels. Thus although
the number ofrnu1tiple parcels increased, the degree of diversity did not change significantly. A
small proportion ofthe total area came to be chamcterized by high degree of diversity while most
of the area was still dominated by single ortwo types nfuse. It is important to note that between
1977 and 1984 group-2 parcels accounted for most of the converted parcels while between 1984
and 1995 group-3 and group-4 parcels accounted for most of the converted parcels. This
indicates that during the later period the study area experienced more diverse types of
development than during the earlier period.
"
CHAPTERS
MARKOV ANALYSIS OF LAND USE CHANGE IN THE STUDY AREA
5 Introduction
Land usc changes in a mmsportation corridor have important implications for public land lISe
planning as well as transportation plarming. There is a traditional concern that particular uses
should be compatible with each other as well as with the aesthetics and efficiency of the paltern
of dcvelopment. The urban and regional plarmers therefore try to prevent the growth of
undesirable land use patterns which may detract from or impact other neighboring uses.
Urban planner, are also cOLleernedwith the maintenance of efficiency in transportation facilitics
such as Jligl1\\'<IYs.This requires kind and volume of traffic be in halanee with facility capacity. A
major determinant of the kind and volmne traffic is the usc of the land servcd by thc highway.
Different [ypes {)r land use are usually associated ""ith diITercnt patterns of traffic. Therefore, in
foreeas[Hlg flItLlre[rallie, [he transportation planncr should take into account expected land use
patterns.
In this chapter we loOk mlo the process of land use change as a Markovian process. An attempt,
therefore, has been made to develop a Markov model of land nse ehange so as to examine the
interrel3tedness of land use types in the process of change and predict future patterns of land use
m the study area.
5.1 Description of Land Use Change as a Markov Process
In the core of our modeling exercise is the realization that a parcel of land in our area of interest
could he ill one of six mutually exclusive states of land lISe al any time instant. These six
possible staws as we have alre3dy defined are Open-V3cant use (OPV), Residential usc (RES),
Water lise (\\'AT), InstllullClllal use (INT), Industrial use (IND) and Commercial use (COM), in
terms oh\ihich all cntire area could be described by an aggregate land use vector LU such that
= (LV], LVI, LV3, LV4, LV" LV.;) (I)
Each component LV; in (1) represents the proportion of the area in the state of land usc i, and
"'" 0,0:0: LV, s: 1.0

1: LV, =10
Let us assume that we observe the profile of land use patterns over a period oftime and notice
that at time t the aggregate vector is given by LV" at time (t+ 1) the land usc vector is LUt+l , and
so on for the samc arca, I[the sequence of vectors LU, LU"I, .., remain the same ror a
sufficiently long observation period we identify the system to be in a state of equilibrimn as LV,
is invariant with respeet to time. lIthe sequence is a string of different veetors we may eoneede
the system 10 be in a transition state, In the latter case, two successive vectors, in the sequence
spanned hy our six dimensional orthogonal basis set could be asslJmed related through a
transitiOtl (Transformation) matrix P such that
J.V,+1 = (LUL)P (2)
The rirst a.\slJmption "lJr model suggest;, is that (2) is true for all subsequent values oft, in which
case
LU,+I = (LU,)P
1.1)«2 (T,U'+I)P
L\jL+] = (LlJ,+,)P
LU,+k
The assumptions behind Our analysis are then

• The pro~es~ respon",hle for changing the land use vector LU at each time point remains
stationary throughoul, and
• The change to a new land use vector at a time t depends totally on the land use vector at a
time (t"l)
Thus the proccss is a stationary memory less process. It should be noted that the transition matrix
P is such that
~d
(3)
Where iJ refer 10 mdice, associated with the components oftbe land use vector (basis set) .
Malrice~ WJlh su~h properlles are called stochastic matriccs, and processes such as ours governed
by stochasti~ matnces are called stochastic processcs.
Let us now make an attempt to identify the matrix P in terms of observable. Since P transforms a
veclor of bnd use profile LV, into a vector LUt+l at time (t+1), P must be directly related to
observed changes to amount of land allocation in usc i at time t.
Suppose, F is a matrix such that (f,j is its (ij) element) where
F = If;; = Amount of land in use i at time t

,
Fto,~ IF,= Tolal amount ofJand in question and ,
~J Amount of land originally in use i at time t , but changed to use j at time

(t7 j),
Then P could be expressed in terms of F simply as
(4)
Note thai (4) sa\lsfies the requirement in (3). Fm1hennore, if F is a diagonal matrix then P
emergs as an idcntify matrix
Now wc may form successi\'e powers ofP and since P is a stochastic matrix so WIll be the power
of P, pk , where k is a rational number, The element (pk)1J would then be the magnitude of the q
probability of transition from a state i to the state j in k units of time. The interesting part that
now emerges is (his' if we let k-7oc then lUlder certain conditions it could be shown (Kerrmey
and SneH, 1969) (hat the transition matrix P stabilizes to a matrix Q such that
Lt p=p'.l =Q
Hoo
or, equivalently, QP = Q (5)

further, when (5) doe,lmkrialize, the matrix Q displays an important property that all its rows
become l(1en(ical (0 a vector. say re. The vector is then the limiting state probability vector or an
equilibrium distribution' ector, which has the property that
re = rep
The equilibrium distribution vector shows the land use allocation at t = <Xl, if the system were left
to itself to evolve. Note (hat if P is stationary and irreducible (i.e, no Pij = 1.0), once the system
reaches ns equilihrium it will remain there, Secondly, this equilibrium distribution is mdependent
ofimtial Slale prohab,li(y distribution i,c. no mailer what land use pattern we may begin with, the
same equilibrium state will emerge.
Given P. the transition matrix, we may obtain a number of interesting feature values
characteristic orthe process concerned. These are outlined below.
5.2 Mean Stay Time (MST)
lfa land unit enters a use i now, the expected amount of time it is likely to spend there before
making another tran,ition to another use j is given by (MST), where
(MST)i = li(I-P;;) (6)
Thus as 'P" --+1.00, the mean stay time becomes infinitely large at the limit, as the diagonal of the
transition matrix approaches unity, use, stay in the same state.
5.3 Mean First Passage Time (MFPT)
[fland usc unit is in land use state i now, how long the process will take to arrive at the state j for
the first til1l~(or eqUlvalenlly, how many transitions it will take to reach statej for the first time
irthe system is in slale i l~ given by the measure (MFPT)ij. Note that, as in (6) we are concerned I'
here with the expected time, The computation of (MFPTij) (for i= j, when indices are same we
talk about mean rCClIrrenCClime as detailed next) is somewhat involved as shown below.
Let us define
T = (I-p+Qrl - Q (7a)
'\l'ere I is identity matrix, i.e, I'J = I ifi = j
= 0, otherwise.
Q ISthe limiting matrix as defined in (5).
Then interlll-; ofT we define
(MFPT)ij = (lij + Tjj - Tij) I1tJ (7b)
Where, J1j is the jtll component of equilibrillffi vector of the matrix P.
How long it will take on the average to reenter into the state i if the system leaves that state now
(or equivalently, how mallY transitions it will take again on the average, between a departure
from a state i and the lirq return to I) is given by the mean recurrence time (MRn as shown
below. [t is simply
(I\mT)" = I/TCj (8)
(MRT), is (hus (MFPT)li. the first passage time from state i to state i.
Thus, in addition to the cquilihrium distributIOn, a stable stationary Markov process could be
characterized by various <;lateoccupancy statistics, namely (M8T), (MFPT) and (MRT). These
statistics enable us to identify specific relationships in the process of land use change. The mean
Slay times and the mean recurrence limes indicate the ability of a land use environment to
continue (0 exist or recur on the landscape while the mean firsl passage times indicate the
relative ea,e with whH;h land may change to certain alternative use given the one presently
existmg on that land, On the basis of these statistics, it is possible to evalnate a particular land
use t>Ve lfl tem)5 of its ability to exist or recur on land or the rigidity or flexibility of the
relationships between different types of land use. In this way, it is possible to identity specific
relationships in the change process which may be acting to produce undesirable mixes of land
nse or which may endanger the maintenance of an adeqnate amount of a desired type of use,
In our study, however, the frequency orland use change over a unit time period is not available;
instead, OUIobservation of the proce5s begins with the identification of a frequency matrix over a
wider time period of 7 ami 11 years for the area under study. For obtaining the unit (or one 5tep)
transition matrix P. from ihe transition matrix P, we have to note that P. is related to P as
P," =P
r• =p Ii" (9)
Where n IS the number of observation years. P. can be realized through a dlagonallzation
procedure in which P can be transformed into a diagonal matrix. Once P. is reali7able through a
diagonali/.ation procedure. ,my arbitrary powers of P. could be fonned and the process behavior
over a specific time interval may be obscrvcd accordmgly.
5.4 Computed Results and Analysis
Calculation of mlllsitlOn probability matrice5 has rcsulted in two transition probability matrices,
one for the period [977-1%4 and the othcr for the pcriod 1984-1995. Our analysis, however, is
based on the matrix representing the period 1984-1995 since this matrix appears to hmd to a
relatl vely more unifoilll process than the corresponding 1984-1995 matrix.
Table 5,1 presents the frequency matrix, unit tTansitiou matrix, equilibrium distribution and
various state occupancy statistics, that is,
Table 5.1 Analysis uf Land Use Change (1984-1995)
(a) Frequent\' Matrix
7 ~, WH ~ [r<iD COM
'"
fRO.\! ~
101'"
lll'\' I ,C- Ow ,
RES m " " , "
I', " ," , "0
WAT
"T , " " m , ,

'r<iJ) , ", ", , ,
CO" , ,,' , "
,'"
''"
(b) Unit Transition Matrix
7 Ol'\' WAT [~T I"lD ro"

'"
rHO}1 ~
'"
orv
,~
078945& ~.177144
"- ~JI<WJ7~ "-, 00241 J2
0002044 ~ 992037 "~~ 000'8]1 OOO()UW (),~()J,l4
\VAT _0000256 ~~W6\5 09&1030 O<JO.171.1 0-00000[) ()OOl,m
I -0 00021.' o~ooooo OJ)()OOOfl
''''
,~" (1000068
om41W
_0,002529 0,000000
0985618
000771] O.'l7652~
000026,
0018'51
CO}1 -<J GOO412 00225% 0000000 o ~Oi065 0000000 OWJ75~
(c) Mean Stay Time (MSn in years 1984-95
[4.74%4125.5808 52,71481 69.82265 42.58944 33.0666]
(d) Mean First Passage Time CMFPT) in years 1984-95

ro 4
""V WH [~T I"lD ro"
mOM ~
'"
,,", -' ,2, ~H~~ JJJ 1,75 41~.('16 nO,282 15027G
H>.\
"A j
" ,"" 5.71'
)'3.'01
JJJSn
('.Jl9
441.J13
,00 18&
23G 19'1
2JG 252
164964
181294
'" '52
'V, 2'11,lO lO3.490 JJ4 04S 740, ,](I 58 1 200 9W
I ,~" 1i ,,'l)
""~ J3~,~!(, 2% ,26 5524 76"5
(0\1
"'"1 ""107 JJ4 J80 J63, [95 2J~,852 5 847
(e) Mean Reeurreoce TimeCMRT) io years 1984-95
[5.525 5,714 6.329 7.462 5.524 5.847]
(f) Equilibrium DistributionrProportion)
[0,181 0.175 0,158 0.134 0.181 0,171]
The me~sures of mean 5t,IYtimes, mean recurrence times and mean first passage times of land
use relationships in the study area. In the study area the mean stay time of the open vacant use is
least of all while the residential usc has the highest mean stay times. Thus the open vacant land
does not stay long in its present state whole the residential use in the study area stay, on land
longer than any other usc
Mean recurrence time is the highest for institutional use which means that this use once
experiences a change to another use environment, it will take longest (than any other use) before
such land wdl host an lIlsll!utional environment. The mean first passage times can be used as
measures of in!elTeJationships between land use environments. Such measures indicate the
rigidity or flexibility of land use environment The rigidity of a land lise environment is the
relative case with whieh land may change to certain alternate use environment given the one
presently existing in that land,
Table 5 I ~hows mean first passage time in the study area. 11 is observed from the table that
certain land use environments are more flexible than others, In the study area open-vacant land
appears 1110Stl1exible 111 general, than others while industrial and commercial land lIses
expeetedly the most rigid When each land use environment is considered in terms of its rigidity
with respect to conversion to other uses it is observed tbat in the study area open-vacant,
residential, commercial lInd water use environments are most rigid when considering their
conversion to in,litullollal use whde Institutional and industrial land use environments arc most
rigid when considering their conversion to residential land usc.
5.5 Projected Future Land Use Patterns
In this section we attempt to predict the future land use patterns in the study area based on our
model analysis. In order lO project the fLlture land use profiles, the 1984-1995 transition matrix
has bcen selected to represent the Markov process responsible for observed land use changes.
The ehoie~ has b~en pr~dicled by the fact that 1984-1995 transition matrix appears to lead to a
relatively more unifonn process.
Let LISassLlme Ihat LV, lepresents the land usc allocation vector at time t, and p. represents the
one step tr<lllsltiollm~trix, 'I hell
LV~51", =LUs4p.'I+m (10)
yields the land usc vector profil~ (land use pattern) m years after 1995. To what extent the
assumption that P. reprcsents the process dunng 1984-1995 could be tested using relation (10)
and letting ill ~ O. This y,~lds the estimated land use pattems for 1995 which is shown below:
I Land Use Percent of Area

Open vacant 5.11
RC.\idcntial 65.40
Wilter 6.03
lnstitutional 11.70
lnd"'lrial 0.2362
Commercial 11.5098
In ord~r to compare the estImated land use pattern with the observed pattem we introduce the
following 'lmi1an!y Ineasure:
S=1.0-d
Where S ~ degrce of similarily
0,- E, Where OJ = Observed land use j

Ej ~ E,timated jand us. J
max(OJ,Ej)
Note thal the value of S ',Illes between 0 and I. A value of 0 indicates no similarity while a
value of 1 lIldicates perf~ct similarity. Values in between 0 and I indicate different degrees of
similarity,
The estimated and observed land usc patterns for 1995 and associated similarity indices arc
presented in table (5.2).lt is obscrvcd from the table that the similarity indices are quite high for
almost all the land uses However, the similarity indices for residential, institutional and
commercial uses and wuter bodies are higher compared to open-vacant land and industrial uses.
This indic<ltes that the hkelihood of predietiol15 with respect to residential, instItutional,
eommeTclal and water-bodies to match satisfactorily with the future observations, assuming that
the past behaviours are maintained, is higher than the predictions with respect \0 open-vacant and
indnstrialu5es.
Now using relatiun (10) ,md setting m to different values from 1 upto 10, we can predict the land
use vectors for 10 years past 1995. These are shown in table (5.3). What is dear from the table is
that the amount of open-vacant land would decline while the amount of land devoted to
residential purpose would increase significantly, Thus, the share of open-vacant land would
decrease from 6.64% at present to about 1.22% by the year 2005 while the share of residential
land would increase from iiJ% at present to about 70% by the year 2005, There will be slight
decrease in the share of water bodies (by I%) while the share of institutional, industrial and
commercial lands would change ~ery litlle,
Table 5.2: Estimated and Observed Land Use Patterns of 1995 and
Associated Similarity Indices
LInd U" t.ltimat<d Portem(%) Ob,e•••,.d Patt,m(%) ~jm!larlly Index

Open_v",nl 5,11 on
Re,idential (,540 '"
62,99 0%
Wal" 6.m 60, OW
!n,tilu[lonal 11.7!l 12,18 0.%
Indulln.1 0.24 0)4 O.7!l
CommclCI"i lUI 11.78 0.97
•,
Table 5.3: Predicted Land Use Patterns
Year Land Use in ereent

0 ell-l'aeant Residential 'Vater Institutional Industrial Commercial
1996 4.19890572 66,246514 5.91764012 11,8138829 0.23054 11,5314774
1997 3.480787671 66959537 5,805382036 11,9270913 0.225127 11,5396737
1998 2,91574942] 67540171 5.695253892 120327301 0.219841 11 5324555
1999 2.471219241 68,016154 5.58711976 12.1319891 0.214679 11.513522
2000 212155455] 68,409337 5.481225749 12.2258155 0.209638 11,4857728
2001 184656787i 68.736931 5.377246707 12.3149656 0.204716 114514778
2002 1 63036643 69.012496 5.275240719 12.4000451 0.199909 114124119
2003 1 46043638 69.246717 5.175168862 12.4815405 0.195215 11,3699607
1,32693372 69.448015 5.076996407 12.5598448 0.190632 11,3252034
"'"
2005 1,22209801 69.623028 4.980685629 12.6352765 0.186156 11.2789786
5.6 Conclusions
In this chapter we have developed a Markov model of land nsc change in the study area. An
attractive feature of the model is that it allows us to determine the rigidity or flexibility of lands
under different uses m tenus of their conversion to other uses. lbe model has also enabled us to
predict future land use patterns. The model thus may be useful for planning purposes as it is
capable of idcntilying spcci r,c relationships in the process of land use change which may act to
produc~ undesirable mixes of land use or which may endanger the maintenance of a desirable
land uSe pallem,
CHAPTER 6
RELEVANCE OF THE STUDY FOR CORRIDOR DEVELOP:MENT IN

DHAKA
6 Introduction
[n this chapter, the relevance of the study for corridor development in Dhaka will be discussed,
We arc now aware that the rapid growth of Dhaka is creating all urbal1 crisis with far reaching
implications beyond the limits of the city region. The population increased from 0,28 million in
1951 to around 1.2 million in 1971. Dhaka has now become one ofthe fastest growing cities in
the world with 3tl estimated population of over 9 million 3tld the population is likely to cross the
10 million mark by the turn of the century. Although efforts have been made in the past to plan
this growth of Dhaka city from a small district town to one of the largest cities in the world, most
of these have been unsuccessfuL As a result, the living conditions have deteriorated very rapidly
3tld the social as well as physical infrastructure are on the verge of collapse. Immediate actions
are necessary to bring some discipline to the furnre growth of the city. Dhaka, the main catalyst
of economic development of the country and thus the failure to manage the negative impacts of
its uneoulrolled urban growth will adversely affect our productivity, quality of life, an(! the SOCIal
3tld physical environment.
In these eire limstances, the study of the corridor development of Dhaka city is urgently called for
futliTecity planning,
6.1 Past and Present Growth Patterns of Dhaka city
Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, was founded in 1608 and flourished as a provincial capital in
thc Mugha1 period. The recent growth of the city dates from its expansion outwards from the old
Dhaka area during the present century. By the beginning of 18,h centul)', when the capital was
shifted, the decline of the city started and the population was reduced to less tll3tl 1,00,000. It
regained some of its lost importance in 1905, when Bengal was partitioned and Dhaka was made
J,
the capital of Eastern Bengal and Assam- but this was very shoIt-hved. With the alllulment of
partition ill 1911, the city was relegated to a district town in 1947. \Vhen India was partitioned,
Dhaka became the seat of the provincial government of East Pakistan,
From 1947, the construction ofGovemment offices and housing increased markedly and the city
spread Ollt to the new hand of development containing Arimpllr, New Market, New Eskaton,
Purana Pa1tan and Kamlapur. Dhanmondi dates from 1953, and the development of
Mohammadpur, Tejgaon and Gulshan fol1owed in the 1950s, As a result of increasing shopping
demands, and possibly the silting up of the Buriganga river, Narayanganj developed as the city's
port with a frontage to the Lakhya river.
The growth trend of Dhaka is multi-dimensional which are mainly physical and economic. The
planning norms and principles are not adequately maintained in the process of growth. The
physical condition of the city is deteriorating alarmingly as urban services cannot keep pace with
demand. "Ibis scenario is also observed in developing countries. The comparison of urban
population and growth of built up areas between 1983 and 1991 shows that urban population
increased hy 37% while there was 51% increase in new urban land2 For the purpose of analysis
the city has been divided into two broad areas: one is Inner Zone and another Outer Zone3, lne
Inner Zone includes: CBD, old city, western and eastern suburbs, Mirpur, Gulshan, Danani and
.Iingira areas and Outer Zone includes: southern and easlem fringe, Tongl, Narayangonj and
DND areas. The percentage of total increase in land and population, (1983-1991) are mbulated
below:
Table 6.1 Percentage of totallncrcase in land and Population 1983-91
80''''': DMDP'tudy 1993

01983
iii 1991
.~ .~
Figurf 6.1: Thf figure shOTt.s the urbaniud .ren In Dh.kJIdty ~ND Mastfr Plan
1959.1979 Ind 1991
~ ••••• l991
Thf population distribution bftween Inner nnd Outer zones remained oonslllnt. but ~nd increase
was overwhelmingly in the Outer ZOIlf'. HO\\-ever, despite the OOl15taneyof tile population mtio,
.ctu.l1 gro.•••
th wtIS much greater in the Inner woes, as they contained the bulk of the popullltion.
70% oftOla! increase was in the Inner Zones, As the increase of~ land in the inner zones was
limited, most of the population would have been accommodated at higher densities.
"
,,
,
DMDP studies have revealed that the 1980s were a period of major land conversion. Rural to
urhan migration gained momentwn dunng 1980's. It was calculated that about 14000 acres were
converted to urban use between 1983 and 1991 (SPZ 1-14). Almost two thirds of this total
occurred m the fringe zones, particularly SPZ's 11-14. Thc position was thc revcrse in the central
urban zone (SPZ's 1-8) where 70% of the population growth occurred but with only 38% orthe
increase in newly converted land.
Fnrther studies revealed that although overall urban land havc increased by 50%, the new land
absorbed only 32% of the population increase with funy 68% being absorbed via densilieation
within the already built up areas.
Figure 6.2: SPZ Groupings by J98J-9J Growth Characteristics
•...... " .
6.2 Analysis of Future Growth Patterns
According to the 1991 census, the population of Dhaka (the RAJUK area) was 7.3 million and
the present (1998) population i, around 9.4 million, It is very dilTicuH to predict the grmvth of
population, which depends considerably on the rate of migration from rural to urban areas.
However, a realistic growth ,ccnario adopted by DMDP predict, the population of Dhaka to be
around 15 million in the year 2015(1), The population changes in the census periods and thc
projccted population according to DMDP studIes are reflectcd in the table 6.2. The Strategic
Planning Zone wise population between 1981 and 2016 as estimated by DMDP demographic
studies( 1992) are presented in table 6.3 helow;
Table 6.2: Population changes in Dhaka Metropolitan Area, 1961~2016

C"",", Year ~op"l.tio"
1961 7004)]
1974 195m52 '" 1%11974t1,"d,,,,,r,,,,,wth
19R1 345B6<)2 !, 19iH9Slu'""""urgnmth
'", ))34000 World b,nk 'Slim,",

100' I !l6200G Structure pi"" "bm",
1~1" 1"<59000 R ,J StructllI' pi," ",,,mol,
Table 6.3: DMDP Central Population Forecast, 1981.2016 (Population

in thousands)
F"n",,' l'om Rent IP1.';,"" In ,

To,,1 by"" Inc. ur "'" srZ', 1_14 '"' '{;OJ
1990
4996
'00'53i2 '00',7.17 20ll 'DIG
6037 61~9
Pop"l.tio" 'n', IHi ", lU«';' lJ5(,
Se/
" J 15 ,m ""
'" ",
12"7
m
1434
'"'
Not MI!"""" m P,e"io", p'''od SPZ', 1_14
SP1', 15.1B
llW m ", 9JS m
""".
,P~
" '" " ". " '"
,~
Cum""t'"" m,g.-''''" to",l, plu,
N,t. I",
Total 'O]Ju~t1on
SPZ',
'"SP~, "
1_14
SPZ', 15_1a
1.14 58,5
%.
.
.
.
1]67
7J)5
'",
"
8873
3271
l')l
W]~3
M
117&~
.'
,"79
IJOOS
Sel', 10-18
".'J IJj4 1554 I7W
1""" Po "I,tto"
SPZ
srz', "
1_19 7.14"
m
9G59
50'!
IOS5G "" '"
12(,2.1
m
141J~
'""
7&,
lJ619
• Th" num"", ,",I"d" the """,,,I '""'"'' o!nngco"ts L1l,lie I ~81_91p<n,>d
• >"0"" "~tl)r Dctoogr'phK,<oJ,,,. \90'-"3
Figure 6.3: Population Forecasts, 1981-2016 (Area of1981 Dhaka SMA)
H 1S observed that the population is increasing rapidly, especially in defined fringe areas on both
sides of the road corridors of Dhaka city, Consequently, the land in urban usc is also increasing
in the fringe area. Population growths of these corridors are shown below:
Frin e Corridor Zone Po n '91 eo n '2006

• ro Mymensmgh road corridor
[)~.ka
(Kol1~e[nf[mge, UttM" - Tongi) " 200000 480000
• Dh.ka to AncM road corridor (Northern

" 363000 7MOOO
we" f,.,nge. DJ","'- S","r)
• Di:a:," to chlltagang TO~~,
~orrido[ (Somhern 1&7 1068000 1740000
rIin e, Dhaka.Chitta 'on"
,Vhat is apparent is that heavy growth is taking place along the highway corridors of Dhaka.
Populations along these corridors are likely to double by 2006, Such a huge increase in
population will have severe impacts on the transportation system, utilities and soclO-economie
facl!lties which are already grossly inadequate compared to the demand. An understanding of the
likely impacts of future devclopments along the corridors would require an analysis of the
current situation in these areas. In what follows we make an attempt to discuss in a general way
some of the tralTie and transportation problems of the city, problems of utihties and the problems
generated by environmental pollution.
6,2.1 Transportation and Traffic Problems
The total length of roads is only aTOlInd2,500 km, out of which the length of primary roads is
only 200 kill. A umque feature of the city 15the large scale dependence On cycle rickshaws as a
form of public transport. There arc more than 300,000 rickshaws, most of them unhcensed while
the5e provide convenient, pollution-free, relatively inexpensive, personalized door to door
transport service for the middle income people (and means of livelihood to about 15% of the
population), they contrihute significantly to the creation of the large number oftrame jams in the
city, The main eanses of the traffic jams are as follows:
• the wide variation in the speeds of vehicles (from slow moving rickshaws, pushcarts to fast
movmg cars) using the same roadway.
• forcible occupation of the footpaths and roads (e.g. by hawkers, squatters) creating
obstructions to pedeMnan movement
• storage of building materials on footpaths and roads
• ignorance about traffic rules
• anarchy in parking
Due to unplanned growth, there is no regulatory measure to build transportation route. The
people do not have access to other uses. The growth creates congestion. The principal road
transport problem is inefficient use ofroad capacity, particularly at junctions and in the design of
road lanes. Dri ,er indiscipline also contributes to existing congestion.
Qne of the solutions proposed to ease the traffic congestIOn created by slaw-moving vehicles
(like rickshaws) which oeenpy a large percentage of available road space has been the
introduction of large number of buses. It has been estimated that there is an immediate need for
introducing 3000 buses, The recent mtroduetion of 'Premium' luxury buses and maxi-haulers is a
step in the right direction,
6.2.2 Urban Services and Facilities
Rapid growth of population in the city has also increased pTessure on L1rban services and
facilities. The ,itualion 0 r sanitation in Dhaka is highly L1nsalisfaclory. Approximately, 15 to 20
percent of thc city population i, currently ,erviced by DWASA (Dhaka Water SLlpply and
Sewerage Anthority) ,ewage disposal system while the rest are seniced by inside septic tank
(25%), pit latrines (15%), bucket latrines (5%) and KLltcha (open) latrines (35 to 40%), Every
day 2000-3000 tons of ,olid wa,tes are generated in the city while the cleanlllg, collection and
dispo,al capacity of the Dhaka City Corporation's Conservancy Department is only 50% of the
wa,tes produced. The rest are left behllld either to rot or to be collected by informal groups Iikc
Scavcngers, rag pickcrs and Tokai, (street children). The situatIon WIth respect to water supply
and electricity is, however, better. Ahollt 91% of the households have access to potable water
(piped water and hand tnbe-wc1l) while about 74% of the hOLl,eholds have access (0 electricity,
6.2.3 Housing Supply
The phenomenal increase in population in the city has been associated with seriollS hOllSmg
shortages. The a\'erage occupancy rate (persons per dwelling unit) was 6.05 in the yeaT 1981.
This h3s increased to ahoLlt 9.2 in 1991, espoxlally for low and middle income-people. The land-
ownership pattern in the city is 31so extremc1y skewed (Islam, 1996). Only 30 percent of the
population who belong to the middle and upper income groups have control over 80 percent of
the residential space in the city while the other 70 pereent of the population eompnslllg low-
mcome groups 3nd the poor have access lo ouly 20 percent of the residential space.
The rate of growth of housing stock is also very slow and is only 6.93 per thousand populations,
In the public sector the House Building Finance Corporation (HBFC) provides loans at 11
percent interest repayable in 20 years. The impact of the house-huilding programs of the
government have had limited impact on the housing situation because of the limitation of
resources. Moreover, the major share of the investment went to the benefit of the upper mIddle
and upper class people. Middle and lower-income people have very litlle access to instirntional
credit because orthe collateral factor, that is, land which is not possessed by them.
•
6.2.4 Environment Pollution
The overall situation of Dhaka city is alarming. The environment is gelling bad to worse, Time is
passing very fast. There i, no scope to make delay in addressing these buming i,sucs. One of the
major eonttiblItors to the high level of pollution in the built up areas of the city is the exhallst
from vehicles, many of whleh are m dilapidated condition. The two stroke engines in auto-
rickshaws and tempos, which have been phased out, from other cities, have been identified as
major contributors of noxious fumes. We badly need to keep this megacity environmentally
sound and healthy, economically productive, socially peaceful and aesthetically attractive To do
so, proper planning, efl1eient lmplementation of the same and political commitment is essentwl.
6.3 Conclusions
What we have ohsened so far is that haphazard growth is takmg place along the high-way
corridors connecting Dhaka WIth other cities of the country. This is creating tremendous pressure
on the transportation system, urban services and facilities, housing and the environment. The
sillIation may worsen further un1css proper steps are taken immediately to control this growth or
steer the growth ill the desired direction. In th" context the study of land usc changes in a
hlghway corridor in Jcssorc may give lISvallIable insights,
The present thesis has made a comprehensive analysis of land use changes in the highway
corridor in Jessorc and ha, IhlIS added to our general understanding of the patterns and processes
of land lIse changes in highway eomdors. We have already seen that the spatial structure of
urban growth may involve not only the bullt-up city, but also the area beyond it. Beyond the
built-up area, a broad rural-urban fringe area extends into the country side along the major
transportation routes. With the increasing importance of highways, urban areas associated with
such highways can be expected to expand morc rapidly than other places not so associated. This
underlines the need for dcveloping suitable analytical frameworks for studying land use changes
along highways connecting growing urban ccntrcs. In this context the present study is of special
relevance. It has explored the technical basc for eollectmg land use information for temporal
analyses. It shows how land use maps provide an efficient means of analysis of land use changes
in a high way corridor over a long period of time. Moreover, the study has developed a Markov
model that allows a means of forecasting independent of traditional planning methods. The
advantage orthe modcllies in the raet that it uses inronnation which can be easily colleeted Irom
land usc maps. The model, therefore, can be fruitfully applied to analyze the present land use
patterns and predict land usc patterns in future along the highway corridors coillleeting Dhaka
city with other growing urban centres, This would enable planners and policy makers to
ronnulate land use planning policies so as to minimire undesirable erreets orrapid urban growth.
CHAPTER 7
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOM.M.ENDATIONS
The main objective of the study was to analyze the land usc changes in (he study area between
1977 and 1995. For the purpose of analysis, through the interpretation of Image and the usc of
available land use maps, several sets of maps were prepared for 1977, 1984 and 1995. The maps
provided information on pallem and diversity of land use in the study area for the said periods.
The study has afforded a wide range of information on land use dynamics in the corridor, "hich
are useful for plalUling purposes. On (he basis of information contained in the land nse maps, a
Markov model was also deveiopeJ m order to specify the process of land nse ehange and the
specIfic relationships in the process of change, An altemp( was also made to determine the
magnitude of changes in different types of land nses dunng (he study period. The resuHs of the
analysis indicate that significant developments took place m the corridor between 1977 and
1995.
The analysis provided us with some knowledge abolll (he changes in the diversity of
development. The information on land use diversity was obtained by dividing the whole area into
pareels and recording the number of (ypes of uses in each parceL The results oj" the analysis
showed that (he degree of land use diversity in the study area increased gradually during the
study period. About 70% of the parcels were converted from single use (0 multiple usc parcels.
The degree of diversity, howner, was low since majority of the converted parcels contained only
two types of usc.
The analyses provided some useful information about (he palterns and diversity of land use
changes in the corridor under study. Some important issues however, remained unadressed. Of
major importance was the issue of specIfic relationships in the change processes. This was
addressed through the use of Markov model analysis which produced some siglllficalll results,
As regards the interrelationships belv,-een different (ypes of uses it was observed that certain uses
were more flexible than others when eOllSidering their conversion to other uses, The open-
vacant land was fOetnd to be most flcxiblc while industrial land was found to bc most rigid in
terms of conversion to other uscs.
In conc1USlon, it is noted that thc study has made a comprehensivc analysis of land use changcs
in thc highway comdor under study and has thus added to our general IIlldcrstanding of the
patterns and processes of land use changes in the comdor. With the incrcasing importance of
highways, urban arcas assocIated with such highways can be expected to expand more rapidly
than other places not so associated, This etnderlines the need for in-depth study of land use
changes along highways connccting growing urban centers. Thc present study represents an
aUempl to fulfill this nced. It has SI10"11 how satellitc images and land use maps providc an
efficient means of analysis of land use change III a highway corridor over a long period of time.
Moreover, the study has developcd a Markov model that allows a means of forecasting
indepcndcnt oftradiuonal planning methods. The advantages of thc model lies in the fact that it
uses infomlation, which can be casily collected from land usc maps. The sludy, thereforc, can be
replicated III other highway corridors as well as rapidly growing urban areas in thc country
through which valuable insights can be gained about land use changes m these areas.
A knowledge of the dynamics of land use changes in a highway corridor, however, shonld be
followed by propcr pohcles to address problems resulting from such changes, Development
control is an lmportant instrumenl for fostering proper type of development in a particular area.
Lcgislation relatmg to building and land use control in urban areas exists in thc form of East
Bengal Building Construction Act (1952), the Paurashava Ordinance (1977) and Building
Construction Regulation (1984), Thc Building Construction Act (1952) provides thc power to
rcglliale construction of new structurcs and to discontinue non-confonning use while the
Building Construction Kegulation (1984) outlincs the procedure of obtaining approval for
construction of buildings, excavation of tanks or cutting of hills. The Paura,hava Ordinance of
1977 providcs power to Municipalitics to prepare Master Plans in addition to specific powers for
construction of drains, streets, market,> etc.
The building and land use control rcgulations as contained in the above mentioned acts were
found to be inadequate to deal with tile situation resllltmg from rapid urban growth. Despite the
•
existence of the acts uncontrolled and incompatible uses developed in different cities and
Municipalities induding Jessore Paurashava. 11 is, therefore, recommended that structure and
detailed area plans should be prepared and Zoning Ordinance containing plan proposals should
be enacted to control development in the concerned Paurashava.
It is, however, important to addrcss not only the problems of land use, but also of the urban
economy, soclety and the envirorunent. An important detemlinant of land use in an area is the
level of its economic actiVities. Changes in the types and volume of activities which form the
economic base of any urban area largely affect its land usc, The level of economic activities of
an area, however, depends on many factors such as dependence of the area's economy on the
national business cycle, the mdustries the area specializes in and the flexibility of the local
economy. Since planners arc responsible for developing policies to ensure growth at some
predetermined pace, research should be undertaken to determine the influence of these factors on
the level of economic activities of the area.
The integration of economic, social, physical and cnvironmental plamung and its accompanying
coordination at various levels should be the ultimate aim. This underlines the need for l1exibility'
in planning as well as an appropriate planning machinery, It is, therefore, necessary to draw up
policies, plans and programmes for urban development in a comprehensive manner.
REFERENCES
Taha, Hamdy(1992) An lntroduetion of Operations Research,

Fifth Edition, PP 682-712.
Jahan, S. (1986) "The Delennination of Stability and

Similarity of Markovian Land Use Change
Processes A Theoretical and Empirical
Analysis", Socio-Economic Planning
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(1990) "Land Use Change Analysis in a Highway

Comdor a Markov Modal Approach",
Journal of Bangladesh Institute of Planners
,Vol 1 Kos. 1&2 PP 61-71.
Choudhury, AKi\1, Kamaluddin(1985) Land LIse planning in Bangladesh, First

EdItion, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Haque, Ammcenul (1977) "An Approach Towards the Physical

Planning of a Suburban Area Such as
Ker<lnigonj", Masters thesls of the
Department of Urban & Regional Planning,
BUET, Dh,lka, Bangladesh.
Khan. Zahid Hussain (1993) "Effects of Greater Dhaka Town Protection

Emb<lnklllent on the Changes in the Trend of
Smkmenl Pattern and Landuse in the Fringe
Ar~as or Embankment", Masters thesis of
the Dep,mment of Urban & Regional
Planning, BUET, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Bell, E,j (1974) "Markov Analysis of Land Use Change: An

Apphcation of Stochastic Processes to
Remotely Sensed Data ", Journal of Socio-
Economic Planning Sciences, Vol. 8,
Bell,E.J. and HinoJo,a, R.c. (1975) "Markov Analysis of Land Use Change :
ContinioLls Time and Stationary Processes",
Socio-Economic Planning Scienees, Vol. 11,
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Borne, L S. (1969) Forecasting Land Oecupancy Changes

Through Markovian Probabliily Matrices: A
central City Example, Centre for Urban and
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14, ljni\'~rsily of Toronto : Toronto,
( 1(76) "Monitoring Change and Evaluating the

Impact of Planning Policy on Urban
Structure, A Markov chain Experiment ",
Plan Can~da ,5-14.
Robinson, Vincent B. (El78) Land U,e changes on the Urban Fringe: A

Stochasllc Model Analysis, Discussion Paper
, No. 3 Dept. of Geography, Kent State
Univcrity, K~nt, Ohio.
(1980) " On lhc Use of Markovian Equilibrium

Di,trib\LliOIlfor Land Use Policy evaluation
", Socio-economic Planning Science, Vol. 14
Choudhury, R. Minour (1990) "Lund usc tmnsformation in Savar : A case
study of sub-urban changes", Masters thesis
of the Department of Urban & Regional
PI,mllin!;!. BUET, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Mot! MacDonald Ltd. & Culpin Plarming Strate~ic Growth Options Dhaka 2016,
Ltd.(1993) Dh:lka, Bangladesh.
Rhaman G & lahan, S Dh,lka 2000: Education, Health services,

Marketing, Recreational Needs and Social
utilities, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
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and Their Suggested Solutions, Seminar
paper, Th~ Illstihltion of Engineers, Dhaka,
Bangladesh.
Quium.A.S.M. Abdul( 1998) "Integrated Planning for Dhaka city",

Seminar pap,r, The Institution of Engineers
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VolllmcJ, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
r.Cl.M,OD. (1994) Menris Case Study Series, No.2, P-(21-31),

Nepal.
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'" ,
GIS-CAD cell. L.G.E. D, (1996) Digital map of Jessore pourashava, Dhaka.
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Land Use Change Analysis in A Highway Cooridor An Application of Markov Model Using GIS

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,

MD. AROZ ULLAH

A thesis submitted to the Department of Urban and Regional Planning Bangladesh

DEPARTMENT OF URBAN & REGIONAL PLANNING

LAND USE CHANGE ANALYSIS IN A HIGHWAY

111esis approved as to the style and content by

Dr. Tanvir A. Khan Member, Extemal

DEPARTMF.NT OFURBA.'1 & REGIONAL PLAl'i"NIi'lG

I express my profound gratirnde and indebtedness to my thesis supervisor Dr. Sarwar

I am grateful to Dr. Tanvir A. Khan, Professor, Independent University of Bangladesh

August, 1999 MD. AROl ULLAH

Ackl10\\ ledgemcnt IV-V

Tables ofcoments Vil-IX

I.isl of' ligures ,

Ahbrc\'lal;On and acronyms Xlll

CHAPTER 2 DEVELOPMENT OF HIGHWAY CORRIDORS SOME

21 Theory of land use 8

CHAPTERJ LAND USE CHANGES IN THE STUDY AREA

3.1 .1 Open vacant land

3,1.2 Residential use

3,1.3 Instirntiollal use

3,1.4 Industrial use

3.1.5 Commercia! use

CHAPTER 4 LAI\D USE DIVERSITY IN THE STUDY AREA

4.3 Parcel" with three types of uses 20

4.4 Parcc1s with fOUf types of uses 22

CHAPTER 5 MARKOV ANALYSIS 01' LAl\'D USE CHANGE IN THE

5,2 Mean Slay Timc(MST) 27

5,3 Mean First Passage Time (MFPT) 28

CHAPTER 6 RELEVANCE OF THE STUDY FOR CORRlDOR

6.2.1 Transportation and Traffie Problems

6.2 2 Urban Services and Facl1ities

6.3 Conclusions 43-44

CHAPTER 7 CONCI,USIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Conc1Hsions and Recommendations 45-47

3.1 D"l"bulion of urban land usc 1977,1984 and 1995 14

1,1 Lis(of ,nopscollectedfromditklcnt source< ,

5.2 ESllnl",d 'nd ob,,,,,"cd Land l;," Pattern, of 19'95OIldASSOCIated

MAP NO. TITLE PAGE

1.1 Bangladesh national reference map 7.1

3.2 S(lldy area map of 1984 14.2

3.3 Study area map of 1995 14.3

4.1 Laml uoc:div~rsity map, 1977 17

LGED Local Government Engineering Department

FORTRAN Formula Translation (A high level programming language)

1.1 Objectives of the study

The specilic objectives of the study are:

~ To develop a Markov model of land use change so as to determine the relatlOnshlpbetween

1.2 The Study area

1.3 The Research Framework

Resoarch Diagram of this Study

Table 1.1 : List of maps collected from different sources

"'am ""000"')' map SOH

Z,I. P,mh.; map(Jmm<) "I.P,n,1wl

I''I'''W'I'hk m.p 1'10.000

DEVELOPMENT OF HTGH\VAY CORRIDORS:

2.1 TheoI)' of Land Use

3.1 Land use Changes in the Study Area

3.1.1 Open Vacant Land

3,1.2 Residential use

3.1.3 Institutional use

3.1.4 Industrial use

3.1.5 Commercial use