Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

AUKUS – Vietnam and the
South China Sea
September 22, 2021

We request your views on the following questions:

Q1) What will Vietnam's stand on the AUKUS deal likely be?
ANSWER: So far, there has not been any official reaction. I expect Vietnam generally
to remain noncommittal; but if asked its likely response will be to voice the view that
as long as AUKUS contributes to peace and security in the region Vietnam will not
object.
Vietnam already has strategic partnerships with the UK and Australia that include
provision for defence and security cooperation. Vietnam’s comprehensive partnership
with the US includes similar provisions. All three AUKUS members additionally have
bilateral agreements on defence cooperation with Vietnam.
A heightened AUKUS military presence in the South China Sea will translate into more
engagement with Vietnam.
Q2) How might Vietnam's position on the South China Sea be affected by the AUKUS
deal?
ANSWER: Vietnam privately will welcome AUKUS as adding more “beef’ to counter-
balance China’s growing military might. Vietnam does not want to see an increase in
tensions or an arms race. If AUKUS leads to a greater presence of western naval ships
in the South China Sea that benefits Vietnam because it shifts the focus of
confrontation from China -v- Vietnam to China -v- AUKUS.
A very senior Vietnamese diplomat once told me that Vietnam prefers the “Goldilocks
formula” in its relations with China and the United States. In Vietnam’s view their
relations should not be “too “hot” (close) and not ‘too “cold (conflictual) but “just
right.” In other words, Vietnam does not want its fate determined by collusion
between Beijing and Washington. And Vietnam does not want to pick sides or suffer
collateral damage from tensions or conflict between China and Vietnam. Vietnam
prefers to leverage off mild tensions (“just right”) because it has greater room for
manoeuvre.
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Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “AUKUS – Vietnam and the South China Sea,”
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, September 22, 2021. All background briefs are
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.