Hotel Holiday Inn

Forecasting Technique-Moving Average

Actual Sales Forecasted Sales
Diff
Time Period Difference in %age
in PKR in PKR
50%
Jan, 2016 1,800,000 0%
40%
Feb, 2016 1,700,000 0%
Mar, 2016 1,650,000 0% 30%
Apr, 2016 1,750,000 1,716,667 2%
20%
May, 2016 1,600,000 1,700,000 -6%
Jun, 2016 1,700,000 1,666,667 2% 10%

%age
Jul, 2016 1,650,000 1,683,333 -2% 0%
Aug, 2016 1,000,000 1,650,000 -39% 1 6 16 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 7 1 7 1 7
-10%, 20 , 20 , 20 l, 20 , 20 , 20 , 20 , 20 , 20 l, 20
Sep, 2016 1,350,000 1,450,000 -7% n r y p v n r y
Ja Ma Ma Ju Se No Ja Ma Ma Ju
Oct, 2016 1,235,000 1,333,333 -7% -20%
Nov, 2016 1,300,000 1,195,000 9% -30%
Dec, 2016 1,700,000 1,295,000 31%
Jan, 2017 1,980,000 1,411,667 40% -40%
Feb, 2017 1,870,000 1,660,000 13% -50%
Mar, 2017 1,815,000 1,850,000 -2%
Time
Apr, 2017 1,925,000 1,888,333 2%
May, 2017 1,760,000 1,870,000 -6%
Jun, 2017 1,870,000 1,833,333 2%
Jul, 2017 1,815,000 1,851,667 -2%
Aug, 2017 1,100,000 1,815,000 -39%
Sep, 2017 1,485,000 1,595,000 -7%
Oct, 2017 1,358,500 1,466,667 -7%
Nov, 2017 1,430,000 1,314,500 9%
Dec, 2017 1,870,000 1,424,500 31%
Jan, 2018 2,178,000 1,552,833 40%
Feb, 2018 2,057,000 1,826,000 13%
Mar, 2018 1,996,500 2,035,000 -2%
Apr, 2018 2,117,500 2,077,167 2%
May, 2018 1,936,000 2,057,000 -6%
Jun, 2018 2,057,000 2,016,667 2%
Jul, 2018 1,996,500 2,036,833 -2%
Aug, 2018 1,210,000 1,996,500 -39%
Sep, 2018 1,633,500 1,754,500 -7%
Oct, 2018 1,494,350 1,613,333 -7%
Nov, 2018 1,573,000 1,445,950 9%
Dec, 2018 2,057,000 1,566,950 31%
Jan, 2019 2,395,800 1,708,117 40%
Feb, 2019 2,262,700 2,008,600 13%
Mar, 2019 2,196,150 2,238,500 -2%
 Difference in %age

Difference in %age
6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9
0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1
,l 2 p, 2 v, 2 n, 2 r, 2 y, 2 l, 2 p, 2 v, 2 n, 2 r, 2 y, 2 l, 2 p, 2 v, 2 n, 2 r, 2
Se No Ja Ma Ma Ju Se No Ja Ma Ma Ju Se No Ja Ma

Time Period
 Hotel Holiday Inn
3,000,000
Forecasting Technique-Exponential Smoothing

Actual Sales Forecasted Sales

Time Period in PKR in PKR Formula used: Ft+1 = αAt + (1-α)Ft 2,500,000
"t" At Ft

Jan, 2016 1,800,000 1,800,000 Condition: 0 < α < 1 2,000,000

Feb, 2016 1,700,000 1,800,000 It is assumed that α= 0.2
Mar, 2016 1,650,000 1,780,000 1,500,000
Apr, 2016 1,750,000 1,754,000
May, 2016 1,600,000 1,753,200
Jun, 2016 1,700,000 1,722,560 1,000,000
Jul, 2016 1,650,000 1,718,048
Aug, 2016 1,000,000 1,704,438 500,000
Sep, 2016 1,350,000 1,563,551
Oct, 2016 1,235,000 1,520,841
Nov, 2016 1,300,000 1,463,672 -
6 6 6
Dec, 2016 1,700,000 1,430,938
2 01 2 01 2 01 20
n, r, y, l,
Jan, 2017 1,980,000 1,484,750 Ja Ma Ma Ju Se
Feb, 2017 1,870,000 1,583,800
Mar, 2017 1,815,000 1,641,040
Apr, 2017 1,925,000 1,675,832
May, 2017 1,760,000 1,725,666
Jun, 2017 1,870,000 1,732,533
Jul, 2017 1,815,000 1,760,026
Aug, 2017 1,100,000 1,771,021
Sep, 2017 1,485,000 1,636,817
Oct, 2017 1,358,500 1,606,453
Nov, 2017 1,430,000 1,556,863
Dec, 2017 1,870,000 1,531,490
Jan, 2018 2,178,000 1,599,192
Feb, 2018 2,057,000 1,714,954
Mar, 2018 1,996,500 1,783,363
Apr, 2018 2,117,500 1,825,990
May, 2018 1,936,000 1,884,292
Jun, 2018 2,057,000 1,894,634
Jul, 2018 1,996,500 1,927,107
Aug, 2018 1,210,000 1,940,986
Sep, 2018 1,633,500 1,794,789
Oct, 2018 1,494,350 1,762,531
Nov, 2018 1,573,000 1,708,895
Dec, 2018 2,057,000 1,681,716
Jan, 2019 2,395,800 1,756,773
Feb, 2019 2,262,700 1,884,578
Mar, 2019 2,196,150 1,960,202
3,000,000

2,500,000

2,000,000

1,500,000 Actual Sales

in PKR
At
Forecasted Sales
1,000,000 in PKR
Ft

500,000

-
6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9
2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 01 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1
n, r, y, l, p, v, n, r, y, l, p, v, n, r, y, l, p, v, n, r,
Ja Ma Ma Ju Se No Ja Ma Ma Ju Se No Ja Ma Ma Ju Se No Ja Ma
 Hotel Holiday Inn
Forecasting Technique-Weighted Rolling Average
Actual Sales Forecasted Sales
Time Period
in PKR in PKR
Jan, 2016 1,800,000 Weights: 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.1
Feb, 2016 1,700,000
Mar, 2016 1,650,000
Apr, 2016 1,750,000
May, 2016 1,600,000 1,715,000
Jun, 2016 1,700,000 1,665,000
Jul, 2016 1,650,000 1,675,000
Aug, 2016 1,000,000 1,665,000
Sep, 2016 1,350,000 1,395,000
Oct, 2016 1,235,000 1,340,000
Nov, 2016 1,300,000 1,264,000
Dec, 2016 1,700,000 1,260,500
Jan, 2017 1,980,000 1,452,000
Feb, 2017 1,870,000 1,685,500
Mar, 2017 1,815,000 1,812,000
Apr, 2017 1,925,000 1,853,000
May, 2017 1,760,000 1,886,500
Jun, 2017 1,870,000 1,831,500
Jul, 2017 1,815,000 1,842,500
Aug, 2017 1,100,000 1,831,500
Sep, 2017 1,485,000 1,534,500
Oct, 2017 1,358,500 1,474,000
Nov, 2017 1,430,000 1,390,400
Dec, 2017 1,870,000 1,386,550
Jan, 2018 2,178,000 1,597,200
Feb, 2018 2,057,000 1,854,050
Mar, 2018 1,996,500 1,993,200
Apr, 2018 2,117,500 2,038,300
May, 2018 1,936,000 2,075,150
Jun, 2018 2,057,000 2,014,650
Jul, 2018 1,996,500 2,026,750
Aug, 2018 1,210,000 2,014,650
Sep, 2018 1,633,500 1,687,950
Oct, 2018 1,494,350 1,621,400
Nov, 2018 1,573,000 1,529,440
Dec, 2018 2,057,000 1,525,205
Jan, 2019 2,395,800 1,756,920
Feb, 2019 2,262,700 2,039,455
Mar, 2019 2,196,150 2,192,520
3,000,000

2,500,000

2,000,000

1,500,000
Actual Sales
in PKR
1,000,000 Forecasted Sales
in PKR

500,000

-
6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9
2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 01 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 01 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1
n, r, y, l, p, v, n, r, y, l, p, v, n, r, y, l, p, v, n, r,
Ja Ma Ma Ju Se No Ja Ma Ma Ju Se No Ja Ma Ma Ju Se No Ja Ma