Tugas Personal ke-1

(Minggu 1)
Iqbal Nur Ikhsan (2440126575)

Sub Topic: Bayes Theorem

A LED lamp produced by PT Pijar was found to be defective. There are three factories
(Cikarang, Bekasi and Tangerang) where such LED lamps are manufactured. A Quality
Control Manager (QCM) is responsible for investigating the source of found defects. Table 1
lists the company's LED lamp production and the possible source of defects. (Sebuah lampu
LED yang diproduksi oleh PT Pijar telah ditemukan dalam keadaan rusak. Ada tiga pabrik
(Cikarang, Bekasi dan Tangerang) di mana lampu LED tersebut diproduksi. Seorang manajer
pengendalian kualitas (QCM) bertanggung jawab untuk menyelidiki sumber kerusakan
tersebut. Tabel 1 mendata produksi lampu LED dari perusahaan dan kemungkinan sumber
kerusakannnya.

Table 1. Total production and probability of defective LED lamps (Total produksi dan
kemungkinan lampu LED yang rusak)

Factory % of Total Production Probability of Defective LED Lamps

Cikarang (C) 0.35 0.015

Bekasi (B) 0.35 0.010

Tangerang (T) 0.30 0.020

The QCM would like to answer the following question if a randomly selected LED lamp is
defective (QCM ingin menjawab pertanyaan berikut jika lampu LED yang dipilih secara acak
yang rusak):

a. Determine the probability that the LED lamp was manufactured in Tangerang factory
(Tentukan probabilitas bahwa lampu LED diproduksi di pabrik Tangerang).

b. Determine the probability that the LED lamp was manufactured in Cikarang factory
(Tentukan probabilitas bahwa lampu LED diproduksi di pabrik Cikarang)

c. Calculate the probability that the LED lamp was manufactured in Bekasi factory (Hitung
probabilitas bahwa lampu LED diproduksi di pabrik Bekasi).

STAT6096-Stochastic Processes
ANSWER

Good Lamp
P(A|C) = 0.985
Cikarang Factory
P(C) = 0,35
Defective Lamp
P(A'|C) = 0.015

Good Lamp
P(A|B) = 0.990
Bekasi Factory
Produced Lamps
P(B) = 0.35
Defective Lamp
P(A'|B) = 0.010

Good Lamp
P(A|T) = 0,980
Tangerang Factory
P(T) = 0.30
Defective Lamp
P(A'|T) = 0.020

a. Determine the probability that the LED lamp was manufactured in Tangerang factory
(Tentukan probabilitas bahwa lampu LED diproduksi di pabrik Tangerang).
P ( A ' ∨T ). P (T )
P(T|A’) =
[ P( A' ∨T ) . P(T )]+[P( A ' ∨B) . P (B)]+[P( A ' ∨C). P(C )]
(0 , 020)(0 , 30)
=
[ ( 0,020 )( 0,30 ) ]+ [ ( 0,010 )( 0 , 35 ) ] +[( 0.015 )( 0.35 ) ]
0,006
=
0,0 1475
= 0,4068

b. Determine the probability that the LED lamp was manufactured in Cikarang factory
(Tentukan probabilitas bahwa lampu LED diproduksi di pabrik Cikarang)
P (A ' ∨C). P (C)
P(C|A’) =
[ P( A' ∨T ) . P(T )]+[P( A ' ∨B) . P (B)]+[P( A ' ∨C). P(C )]
(0,0 15)(0,3 5)
=
[ ( 0,020 )( 0,30 ) ]+ [ ( 0,010 )( 0,35 ) ] +[ ( 0.015 ) ( 0.35 ) ]
0,00 525
=
0,01475
= 0,3559

c. Calculate the probability that the LED lamp was manufactured in Bekasi factory
(Hitung probabilitas bahwa lampu LED diproduksi di pabrik Bekasi).

STAT6096-Stochastic Processes
 P( A ' ∨B). P (B)
P(T|A’) =
[ P( A' ∨T ) . P(T )]+[P( A ' ∨B) . P (B)]+[P( A ' ∨C). P(C )]
( 0,01 0)(0,3 5)
=
[ ( 0,020 )( 0,30 ) ]+ [ ( 0,010 )( 0,35 ) ] +[ ( 0.015 ) ( 0.35 ) ]
0,00 35
=
0,01475
= 0,2373

STAT6096-Stochastic Processes