Percobaan 4

4. Berdasarkan Teori Pada Kaidah Beyes

Tabel Pengamatan Tukang Siomay A

Tabel 4.7 Pengamatan Tukang Siomay A

NO Beli Tidak Beli Jumlah

1 4 3 7
2 5 2 7
3 9 0 9
4 5 1 6
5 3 2 5
6 6 4 10
∑ 32 12 44
Sumber : Pengumpulan Data

Tabel Pengamatan Tukang Siomay B

Tabel 4.8 Pengamatan Tukang Siomay B

NO Beli Tidak Beli Jumlah

1 4 2 6
2 5 3 8
3 8 2 10
4 2 4 6
5 3 2 5
6 5 5 10
∑ 27 18 45
Sumber : Pengumpulan Data

Tabel Pengamatan Tukang Siomay C

Tabel 4.9 Pengamatan Tukang Siomay C

NO Beli Tidak Beli Jumlah

1 3 3 6
2 8 1 9
3 9 2 11
4 3 0 3
5 1 2 3
6 6 8 14
∑ 30 16 46
 Tabel Pengamatan Tukang Siomay A, B, Dan C.
Tabel 4.10 Pengamatan Tukang Siomay A, B, Dan C.
Keterangan Jumlah
Penjual Peluang JK
B TB B+TB
TSA 1/3 . 18 5 23
TSB 1/3 . 17 7 24
TSC 1/3 20 6 26
Total 1 55 18 73
Sumber : Pengolahan Data

Tentukan:

a. P(TSA) = 1/3. = 0,33

b. P(TSB) = 1/3. = 0,33

c. P(TSC) = 1/3. = 0,33

32ൗ
d. P(B ǀ TSA)= 𝑃(𝐵𝑇𝑆𝐴) 44 = 0,72 = 2,18
=
𝑃(𝑇𝑆𝐴) 0,33 0,33

𝑃(𝐵𝑇𝑆𝐵) 27ൗ
e. P(B ǀ TSB)= = 45 = 0,6 = 1,81
𝑃(𝑇𝑆𝐵) 0,33 0,33

30ൗ
f. P(B ǀ TSC)= 𝑃(𝐵𝑇𝑆𝐶) 46 = 0,65 = 1,96
=
𝑃(𝑇𝑆𝐵) 0,33 0,33

12ൗ
g. P(TB ǀ TSA)= 𝑃(𝑇𝐵𝑇𝑆𝐴) = 44 = 0,27 = 0,72
𝑃(𝑇𝑆𝐴) 0,33 0,33

18ൗ
h. P(TB ǀ TSB)= 𝑃(𝑇𝐵𝑇𝑆𝐵) = 45 = 0,40 = 1,21
𝑃(𝑇𝑆𝐵) 0,33 0,33

16ൗ
i. P(TB ǀ TSC)= 𝑃(𝑇𝐵𝑇𝑆𝐶) 46 = 0,34 = 1,03
=
𝑃(𝑇𝑆𝐶) 0,33 0,33
j. P(B) = {P(TSA) x P(B ǀ TSA) + {P(TSB) x P(B ǀ TSB)} +
{(P(TSC) x P(B ǀ TSC)}
= (0,33 x 2,18) + (0,33 x 1,81) + (0,33 x 1,96)
= 0,719 + 0,597 + 0,646
= 1,962

𝑃(𝑇𝑆𝐴𝐵) 2 18 0 33 0 719
k. P(TSA ǀ B)= 𝑃(𝑇𝑆𝐴𝐵) 2,18 𝑥 0,33 0,719
= = = 0,366
𝑃(𝐵) 1,962 1,962

l. P(TSB ǀ B)= 𝑃(𝑇𝐾𝐵𝐵) 1,81 𝑥 0,33 0,597

= = = 0,304
𝑃(𝐵) 1,962 1,962

m. P(TSC ǀ B)= 𝑃(𝑇𝐾𝐶𝐵) 1,96 𝑥 0,33 0,646

= = = 0,329
𝑃(𝐵) 1,962 1,962

n. P(TB) = {P(TSA) x P(TB ǀ TSA) + {P(TSB) x P(TB ǀ TSB)} +

{(P(TSC) x P(TB ǀ TSC)}
= (0,33 x 0,72) + (0,33 x 1,21) + (0,33 x 1,03)
= 0,237 + 0,399 + 0,339
= 0,975

o. P(TSA ǀ TB)= 𝑃(𝑇𝑆𝐴𝑇𝐵) 0,72 𝑥 0,33 0,237

= = = 0,243
𝑃(𝑇𝐵) 0,975 0,975

p. P(TSB ǀ TB)= 𝑃(𝑇𝑆𝐵𝑇𝐵) 1,21 𝑥 0,33 0,399

= = = 0,409
𝑃(𝑇𝐵) 0,975 0,975

q. P(TSC ǀ TB)= 𝑃(𝑇𝑆𝐶𝑇𝐵) = 1,03 𝑥 0,33 = 0,339 = 0,347

𝑃(𝑇𝐵) 0,975 0,975