AL UMINUM BUILDING AND

C O N S T R U C T I O N USAGE STUDY
April 2021
EX EC UT IVE SUM M A RY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
ALUMINUM IN RESIDENTIAL BUILDING AND
1 CONSTRUCTION TO GROW 8% CAGR PER YEAR,
EXPECTED TO SURPASS MID-2000’s USAGE BY 2024
Shift in demand from homeowners and wave of new institutional investors driving significant
shifts to construction spending, spurring aluminum demand through 2024

ALUMINUM USAGE IN CONSTRUCTION RISING – WILL

2 DRIVE +154 MILLION LB OF ADDITIONAL ALUMINUM
USAGE DUE TO DESIGN SHIFTS
Shift towards higher density SURBAN living + modern designs using low-maintenance materials a
tailwind for aluminum cladding, windows, and doors/screens. Growth of accessory dwelling units will
drive incremental aluminum usage 2020-25

SIGNIFICANT FURTHER UPSIDE TO ALUMINUM

3 PENETRATION POSSIBLE: POTENTIAL FOR + 300MM LB TO ANNUAL
ALUMINUM USAGE BY 2025
JBREC recommends six practical strategies to boost aluminum usage in building and construction
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC (Pub: April 2021)

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FOUR TRENDS DRIVING A LU MI NU M USAGE HIGHER
IN C O N S T R U C T I O N 2020 - 2024
SHIFT TO SURBAN LIVING AND CONTEMPORARY
1 COMMERCIAL PROJECTS
Shift towards higher density living + modern designs using low-maintenance materials a definite tailwind
for aluminum cladding, windows, and doors/screens

MODULAR CONSTRUCTION & INCREASED

2 ADOPTION OF ACCESORY DWELLING UNITS
Shift to infill development and modular construction drive more usage of aluminum products

ALUMINUM CONVERSION VS VINYL

3 Value proposition of modern aluminum cladding vs vinyl similar to conversion to premium
composite decking vs wood – shift to premium, environmentally friendly product for owners
staying in home longer

PIPELINE OF AGING ROOFING WILL DRIVE RECOVERY AS

4 WAVE OF LONGER-LIFE ROOFS REACH END OF LIFE BY
2025
Aluminum roofing to grow faster than asphalt, in addition to gutter and downspout lift from
reroof volume by 2025
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC (Pub: April 2021)

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IN D U S T R Y F O REC A ST
 RESIDENTIAL ALUMINUM TO GROW 34% TO 2. 4 BILLION LB BY
2024, DESPITE COVID- DRIVEN SLOWDOWN IN ECONOMY

Residential Aluminum Usage (MM lb)

Sheet and Plate Extruded Other
3,000
Recession COVID
Recession
2,500

2,000
1,099 1,201
1,087 1,150
1,065
1,500 920 971
887
754 791 750
740 711
637 667
1,000 582
583
564
572 578

1,195 1,121 1,174

500 971 972 1,034 1,113
791 791 864 858 866 885
724 729 721 763 744
657 650

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC (Pub: Apr-21)

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JBREC NEW CONSTRUCTION AND BIG PROJECT REMODEL DATA A
HISTORICALY ACCURATE PREDICTOR OF RESIDENTIAL ALUMINUM BUILDING
& CONSTRUCTION DEMAND

Residential Aluminum Usage and Real Residential Spending

(New Construction and Major Remodel)
Burns New Construction and Big Project Remodel Spending (Inflation Adjusted)
Buidling & Construction Alumninum Usage (MM LB)
$350 COVID Delays
2,400
Deferred Some Big
$300 Project Residential
Spending into 2021
$250 1,900

Millions LB Aluminum
$200
Billions

1,400
$150

$100
900
$50

$0 400

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC (Pub: Apr-21)

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181 aluminum
in awnings 4 aluminum in
windows & doors

aluminum
2071 in siding

1451 aluminum in
gutters. & spouts

aluminum in
2 manufactured
housing (ADU/ Mob ile home)

I
I
I
I
\ I
$100K OF RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SPENDING DRIVES
760 LB OF ALUMINUM USAGE (SHEET, PLATE, AND EXTRUDED)

Ea ch $ 1 0 0 k of D r iv e s A l u m i n u m
S pe nd ing Us a g e:

400 LB
$100k S he e t a nd P la te
R e s id e n t i a l +
C o ns tr uc tio n
S p e nd i n g * 360 LB
E x tr ud e d
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC (Pub: Apr-21)
* Includes Major Remodels and New Construction Spending, Excluding Land Cost, Adjusted for Inflation

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 BASE SCENARIO FORECAST DETAIL: 8% COMPOUND GROWTH 2020-24,
SHEET AND PLATE TO GROW 7% ANNUALLY, EXTRUDED TO GROW 8%

History Forecast
CAGR CAGR
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021P 2022P 2023P 2024P 2015-20 2020-24
Total 1408 1420 1512 1629 1661 1633 1784 1958 2117 2285 2397 4.7% 7.7%
Sheet and Plate 763 744 791 864 858 866 885 972 1034 1113 1174 3.5% 7.3%
W &D 81 78 76 80 82 82 93 102 112 121 127
Awnings 17 13 13 14 9 9 10 9 9 8 9
Siding 395 385 414 448 444 447 443 530 602 655 686
Manu Housing 17 15 15 17 17 17 16 16 16 16 16
Gutters 253 253 273 305 306 311 322 316 295 313 336

Extruded 637 667 711 754 791 750 887 971 1065 1150 1201 5.9% 7.9%
W &D 593 621 659 697 731 694 831 912 1002 1083 1132
Awnings 25 27 27 28 29 28 26 29 34 37 40
Siding 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 3
Manu Housing 18 18 24 27 29 27 28 27 27 27 27
Gutters 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other 8 9 10 11 12 17 12 16 19 22 22 6.6% 16.0%

W &D 6 6 7 8 9 8 11 12 14 15 15
Awnings 1 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 4 6 6
Siding 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Manu Housing 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Gutters 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC (Pub: Apr-21)

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ALUMINUM BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION USAGE TO
GR O W 3 4 - 5 1 % B Y 2 0 2 4 O N V OLU ME , MI X , A N D S H I F T S

Source of Residential Aluminum Growth 2020-24 (MM of Lbs)

2,900

2,700

300
2,500
19
2,300

2,100 595

1,900

1,700
1,784
1,500
2020 Residential Industry / Housing Product Shift (baseline) Potential Increased
Aluminum Usage Fundamentals Growth: Adoption from Industry
(estimated) 2020-2024 Initiatives
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC (Pub: Apr-21)

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ALUMINUM SHEET AND PLATE USAGE TO GROW 33-50% BY
2024 ON VOLUME, MIX, AND SHIFTS
Sheet and Plate Residential Aluminum Growth 2020-24 (MM of Lbs)
1,400

155
1,200 8.7

1,000 280

800

600

885
400

200

0
2020 Residential Industry / Housing Product Shift (baseline) Potential Increased
Aluminum Usage Fundamentals Growth: Adoption from Industry
(estimated) 2020-2024 Initiatives
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC (Pub: Apr-21)

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ALUMINUM EXTRUSION USAGE TO GROW 35-52% BY 2024
ON VOLUME, MIX, AND SHIFTS
Extruded Residential Aluminum Growth 2020-24 (MM of Lbs)
1,600

1,400

10.3 145
1,200

1,000 303.9

800

600
887
400

200

0
2020 Residential Industry / Housing Product Shift (baseline) Potential Increased
Aluminum Usage Fundamentals Growth: Adoption from Industry
(estimated) 2020-2024 Initiatives
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC (Pub: Apr-21)

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 WHAT YOU NEED TO BELIEVE TO ACHIEVE EXPECTED
INDUSTRY GROWTH BY 2024

NEW CONSTRUCTION
HOUSING STARTS
~ 1.9MM BY 2024
R E S I D EN T I A L B I G PR O J E C T
R EM O D EL S ( $ 5 0 0 0 + ) G R O W
NE T ~ 8 % P E R Y E AR AS
B A C K L O G O F O UTD ATE D
PR O J E C T S + H O M E PR I C E
AP P RE CI ATI O N A N D WAV E
O F I NS TI T U T I O NA L S I NG LE -
FA M I LY R EN TA L I N V E S T O R s S
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC (Pub: April-21) P UR RE M O DE LI NG DE M A N D

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SH IF T T O H IG H D EN S I T Y C O N ST RU C T IO N O N SM A L L L O T S
D R IV IN G A D O P T IO N O F P R E M IU M A L U M IN U M P A N EL S /D O O R S T O
‘ OP E N U P ’ Y A R D T O H OME

Case Study: OUTDOOR INTEGRATION INTO LIVING SPACE

VIA ALUMINUM PANEL
Small lots driving integration of indoor/outdoor spaces, and increased aluminum door usage. High land
prices driving smaller lots for (5 homes per acre, at $1.1MM+) homes at all pricepoints are opened via aluminum
sliding door to small highly finished yard. Yard becomes part of the home, enabled by aluminum panel

La rge do o r op en
living space to
small finished yard

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC (Pub: Feb-20); Photo Source: DesignLens

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C O N T EM P O R A R Y C O M M ER C IA L P R O J EC T S IN SU RB A N A R E A S
ST A RT IN G T O F EA T U RE A L U M IN U M C L A D D IN G

Case Study: Commercial Office Redevelopment

Migration to more urban / SURBAN neighborhoods closer to the job center in many major, established
cities across the US is leading many commercial property owners to redevelop dated buildings to compete
with new, higher priced space. We have found many examples of aluminum siding being applied to existing
facades that not only modernize the building, but offer the property owner lower maintenance and repair
costs.

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC (Pub: Feb-20); Photo Source: Dizal

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OVERSIZED ALUMINUM SLIDING DOORS ( SOME
WITH SCREENS) A KEY FEATURE OF HIGH DENSITY
Case Study: Oversized Sliding Doors
As consumers increasingly desire indoor / outdoor living spaces, we are seeing significant growth in demand for
oversized patio doors that create a more seamless transition between indoor and outdoor spaces, especially in the
Western U.S. In recent, proprietary consumer research, JBREC found among consumers in California, Nevada,
Texas, Colorado, and Arizona, that the number one space homeowners plan to remodel was outdoor living area
(56% of all consumers), followed by the kitchen and master bath. Further, among types of home improvements,
consumers perceived creating an indoor / outdoor living area by removing a wall and adding an oversized
sliding door added more value to their home than a kitchen or master bath remodel would (if spending the
same amount on all projects).

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC (Pub: Feb-20); Photo Source: Houzz, HGTV

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ALUMINUM & ALUMINUM - CLAD WINDOWS

Case Study: Ultra Modern Design

Proprietary JBREC home design research shows an uptick in demand for ultra modern, sleekly designed
products in custom homes. Plumbing manufacturers are 3D-printing razor thin faucets, and window and door
manufacturers are increasingly offering thin frame, full-aluminum solutions to meet this design need.

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC (Pub: Feb-20);

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M O DUL A R C O N ST RUC T IO N F A VO RA B L E F O R
AL U M I NU M C L AD D I NG
M o d u l ar c o n s t r uc t i on i s
p a r t i c ul ar l y s ui t ed f or
a l um i n u m c l a d d i n g , d u e t o
l o w m a i nt e n a n c e/ c a l l b a c k
i s s u e s p o s t d e l i v er y

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC (Pub: Feb-20);

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F A ST E S T G R O W T H /P R O F IT A B IL IT Y P R O D U C T S B E N EF IT IN G F RO M
C O N V E R S I O N T O L O W M A IN T EN A N C E P R EM IU M M A T E R I A L S –
OP P OR T U N I T Y F OR P R E MI U M A L U MI N U M CL A D D I N G

L o w m o b i l i t y ( c o n s um er s s t ay i ng i n h o m es
l o n g e r ) dr i v i ng c o n s um er s hi f t f r o m l o w c o s t
w o o d d e c k i ng t o pr em i um c om p o s i t e d e c k i ng

C om p o s i t e G r ew
2 2 % F a s t er t h a n
W o o d 2 0 1 7 - 19
D e s p i t e 2x - 4x
H i gher C ost

Source: US Census AHS, HIRL, John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC (Pub: Feb-20);

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RUSTIC, MODERN RESIDENTIAL EXTERIORS

Case Study: Rustic Moderns

Two of our most pinned photos on our Design Lens platform are these new home exteriors. One
contemporary, one more traditional but both featuring aluminum-clad windows and either metal roofing or metal
accents. Home builders are increasingly incorporating mixed materials on exteriors to add contrast and interest.

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC (Pub: Feb-20); Photo source: Design Lens by John Burns Real Estate Consulting

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M E T A L R O O F S A R E P A R T I C U L A R L Y A T T R A C T I V E TO
C O N S U M E R S WHO DESIRE ENERGY SAVINGS

2005 2019 2025

7% 15% >17%
New Roofs are Metal New Roofs are Metal New Roofs are Metal

Potential metal roofs usage to reach 23-25%

by 2025 if installed cost drops 15-20% OR
architects continue shift to modern design
Source: ARMA, HIRL, John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC (Pub: Feb-20)

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LIMITING CONDITIONS
 L IM IT I N G C O N DIT IO N S

The conclusions and recommendations presented in this report are based on our analysis of the information available to
us from our research as of the date of this report. We assume that the information is correct and reliable and that we have
been informed about any issues that would affect project marketability or successpotential.

Our conclusions and recommendations are based on current and expected performance of the national, and/or local
economy and real estate market. Given that economic conditions can change and real estate markets are cyclical, it is
critical to monitor the economy and real estate market continuously, and to revisit key project assumptions periodically to
ensure that they are still justified.

The future is difficult to predict, particularly given that the economy and housing markets can be cyclical, as well as
subject to changing consumer and market psychology. There will usually be differences between projected and actual
results because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, and the differences may be material. We
do not express any form of assurance on the achievability of any pricing or absorption estimates or reasonableness of the
underlying assumptions.

In general, for projects out in the future, we are assuming “normal” real estate market conditions, and not a condition of
either prolonged “boom” or “bust” market conditions. We do assume that economic, employment, and household growth
will occur more or less in accordance with current expectations. We are not taking into account major shifts in the level of
consumer confidence; in the ability of developers to secure needed project entitlements; in the cost of development or
construction; in tax laws that favor or disfavor real estate markets; or in the availability and/or cost of capital and mortgage
financing for real estate developers, owners and buyers. Should there be such major shifts affecting real estate markets,
this analysis should be updated, with the conclusions and recommendations summarized herein reviewed and
reevaluated under a potential range of build-out scenarios reflecting changed marketconditions.

We have no responsibility to update our report analysis for events and circumstances occurring after the date of our
report. This analysis represents just one resource that should be considered when assessing a marketopportunity.

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 CON T A CT U S

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