Fault and event trees- Exercitation 5

Corso di SVILUPPO E ANALISI DEL RISCHIO DEI PROCESSI CHIMICI

Anno accademico 2021/2022

Contacts: maria.portarapillo@unina.it – MS Teams

1
 Exercise 1
Given the fault tree gates shown and the following set of failure probabilities:
a) Determine an expression for the probability of the top event in terms of components failure probabilities.
b) Determine the minimal cut sets.
c) Compute a value for the failure probability of the top event. Component Failure probability
Solution 1 0.1

a) 𝑃 𝑇 = 𝑃 1 ∗ 𝑃(2) 2 0.2
b) Minimal cut set 3 0.3

A 1 2 4 0.4

b) 𝑃 𝑇 = 𝑃 1 ∗ 𝑃(2) equal to a)
c) 𝑃 𝑇 = 𝑃 1 ∗ 𝑃 2 = 0.1 ∗ 0.2 = 0.02

a) 𝑃 𝑇 = 𝑃 1 + 𝑃 2 − 𝑃 1 𝑃(2)
b) Minimal cut set
b)𝑃 𝑇 = 𝑃 1 + 𝑃 2 − 𝑃 1 𝑃(2)
A 1 equal to a)
2 c)𝑃 𝑇 = 0.28

2
 Exercise 1 Component Failure probability
1 0.1
2 0.2
3 0.3
a) 𝑃 𝑇 = 𝑃 1 + 𝑃 4 − 𝑃 1 ∗ 𝑃 4 =
=𝑃 1 + P 2 ∗ P 3 − P 1 ∗ P 2 ∗ P(3) 4 0.4
b) Minimal cut set

A 1 1
B 2 3

b) 𝐶1 = 1 𝐶2 = 2,3
𝑃 𝑇 = 𝑃 𝐶1 + 𝑃 𝐶2 − 𝑃 𝐶1 ∗ 𝑃 𝐶2 = 𝑃 1 + P 2 ∗ P 3 − P 1 ∗ P 2 ∗ P(3) equal to a)
c) 𝑃 𝑇 = 0.154

a) 𝑃 𝑇 = 𝑃 1 ∗ 𝑃 4 = 𝑃 1 ∗ 𝑃 2 + 𝑃 3 − 𝑃 2 ∗ 𝑃 3 =
= 𝑃 1 ∗ 𝑃 2 + 𝑃 1 ∗ 𝑃 3 − 𝑃 1 ∗ 𝑃 2 ∗ 𝑃 3 = 0.044
b) Minimal cut set
A 1 B 1 2
1 3

b) 𝐶1 = 1,2 𝐶2 = 1,3
𝑃 𝑇 = 𝑃 𝐶1 + 𝑃 𝐶2 − 𝑃 𝐶1 ∗ 𝑃 𝐶2 = 𝑃 1 ∗ 𝑃 2 + 𝑃 1 ∗ 𝑃 3 − 𝑃 1 2 ∗ 𝑃 2 ∗ 𝑃 3 = 0.0494
 Exercise 1 Component Failure probability
1 0.1
2 0.2
3 0.3
4 0.4

a) 𝑃 𝑇 = 𝑃 5 ∗ 𝑃 6 = 𝑃 1 + 𝑃 2 − 𝑃 1 ∗ 𝑃 2 ∗ 𝑃 3 + 𝑃 4 − 𝑃 3 ∗ 𝑃 4 = 0.16
b) Minimal cut set

A B C 1 C 1 3 1 3
2 C 2 C 2 3
1 4 1 4
2 4

b) 𝐶1 = 1,3 𝐶2 = 2,3 𝐶3 = 1,4 𝐶4 = 2,4

𝑃 𝑇 = 𝑃 𝐶1 + 𝑃 𝐶2 + 𝑃 𝐶3 + 𝑃 𝐶4 − 𝑃 𝐶1 ∗ 𝑃 𝐶2 ∗ 𝑃 𝐶3 ∗ 𝑃 𝐶4 = 0.21
𝑃 𝐶1 = 𝑃 1 ∗ 𝑃 3
𝑃 𝐶2 = 𝑃 2 ∗ 𝑃 3
𝑃 𝐶3 = 𝑃 1 ∗ 𝑃 4
𝑃 𝐶4 = 𝑃 2 ∗ 𝑃 4
 Exercise 2
Compute the MTBF, failure rate, reliability and probability of failure of the top event of the system shown in figure. Also show the
minimal cut sets.
Solution

𝑃 𝐴 =𝑃 𝐵 ∗𝑃 𝐶 = 𝑃 1 ∗𝑃 2 ∗ 𝑃 3 +𝑃 4 −𝑃 3 ∗𝑃 4 = 0.0116
R 𝐴 = 0.9884
μ = − ln 𝑅 𝐴 = 0.0117 𝑓𝑎𝑢𝑙𝑡/𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
1
𝑀𝑇𝐵𝐹 = = 85.7 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 A
μ

A B C 1 C 2 1 3 2
1 4 2

B C

*MTBF=mean time between failure

 Exercise 3
Compute the MTBF, failure rate, reliability and probability of failure of the top event of the system shown in figure. Also show the
minimal cut sets.
Solution
𝑓𝑎𝑢𝑙𝑡
μ = 0.1 → 𝑅 = 𝑒 −𝜇 = 0.9 → 𝑃 = 1 − 𝑅 = 0.1
𝑦𝑟
𝑓𝑎𝑢𝑙𝑡
μ = 0.2 → 𝑅 = 0.82 → P = 0.18
𝑦𝑟
𝑓𝑎𝑢𝑙𝑡 A
μ = 10 → 𝑅 = 0.000045 → 𝑃 = 0.999955
𝑦𝑟
𝑃 𝐴 = 𝑃 1 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃 1 𝑃 𝐵 = 𝑃 1 + 𝑃 2 𝑃 3 − 𝑃 1 𝑃 2 𝑃 3 = 0.26
𝑅 = 1 − 0.26 = 0.74
μ = − ln 𝑅 = 0.30 𝑓𝑎𝑢𝑙𝑡/𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 1
1
𝑀𝑇𝐵𝐹 = = 3.32 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠
μ B

A 1 1 3
2
B 2 3
 Exercise 4
Compute the MTBF, failure rate, reliability and probability of failure of the top event of the system shown in figure. Also show the
minimal cut sets.
Solution
𝑓𝑎𝑢𝑙𝑡
μ = 0.25 → 𝑅 = 𝑒 −𝜇 = 0.779 → 𝑃 = 1 − 𝑅 = 0.221
𝑦𝑟
𝑓𝑎𝑢𝑙𝑡 A
μ = 0.4 → 𝑅 = 0.67 → P = 0.33
𝑦𝑟
𝑓𝑎𝑢𝑙𝑡
μ = 0.3 → 𝑅 = 0.74 → 𝑃 = 0.26
𝑦𝑟
𝑓𝑎𝑢𝑙𝑡
μ = 0.4 → 𝑅 = 0.67 → 𝑃 = 0.33
𝑦𝑟
𝑓𝑎𝑢𝑙𝑡 C
μ=1 → 𝑅 = 0.368 → 𝑃 = 0.632
𝑦𝑟 B
𝑃 𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐵 + 𝑃 𝐶 − 𝑃 𝐵 𝑃(𝐶)
𝑃 𝐵 =𝑃 1 𝑃 2
𝑃 𝐶 =𝑃 𝐷 +𝑃 5 −𝑃 𝐷 𝑃 5
𝑃 𝐷 = 𝑃 3 + 𝑃 4 − 𝑃 3 𝑃(4)
D
𝑃 𝐴 = 0.688
𝑅 = 0.312
μ = − ln 𝑅 = 1.16 𝑓𝑎𝑢𝑙𝑡/𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
1
𝑀𝑇𝐵𝐹 = = 0.85 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠
μ
 Exercise 4

A B 1 2 1 2
C C D
5

1 2
3
5
4
 Exercise 5
The storage tank system shown in figure is used to store process feedstock. Overfilling of storage tanks is a common problem in
the process industries. To prevent overfilling, the storage tank is equipped with a high-level alarm and a high-level shutdown
system. The high-level shutdown system is connected to a solenoid valve that stops the flow of input stock.
a) Develop an event tree for this system using the “failure of level indicator” as the initiating event. Given that the level
indicator fails 4 times/yr, estimate the number of overflows expected per year. Using the data reported in the table.
b) Develop a fault tree for the top event of “storage tank overflows”. Estimate the failure probability of the top event and the
expected number of occurrence per year. Determine the minimal cut sets. What are the most likely failure modes?

Solution
 Exercise 5
𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑢𝑟𝑒 = 𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤 = 0.011 𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠/𝑦𝑟
Solution Safety function High-level switch system High level Operator stops
alarm flow

Identifier B C D

Failures/demand 0.01 0.01 0.1

0.3528/yr

0.392/yr
0.00392/yr
HLS works

3.96/yr 0.035/yr

0.036/yr
0.0036/yr
Initiating event
Failure of level indicator
4 failures/yr
0.036/yr
HLS does not
work
0.04/yr 0.004/yr
Exercise 5

𝑡 = 1 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝑅 = 𝑒 −𝜇𝑡
𝑃 =1−𝑅
 Exercise 5
A B D 1 D 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6
C D C D F D E 2 D E 2 6 E
1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7
3 D E 3 D E
2 7 E
1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 𝑚𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑙𝑖𝑘𝑒𝑙𝑦 𝑡𝑜 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟
2 6 4 2 6 4 2 6 4 2 6 4 2 6 4
1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 𝑚𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑙𝑖𝑘𝑒𝑙𝑦 𝑡𝑜 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟
3 D E 3 6 E 3 6 4 3 6 4 3 6 4
2 7 E 2 7 E 2 7 E 2 7 4 2 7 4
2 6 5 2 6 5 2 6 5 2 6 5 2 6 5
3 7 E 3 7 E 3 7 E 3 7 4
3 6 5 3 6 5 3 6 5
2 7 5 2 7 5
3 7 5
Case study
 Solution
Estimation of the frequencies of the initiating events

Loading procedures

Winter
 Event trees
Event 1
 Event trees
Event 1
 Event trees
Event 2
 Event trees
Event 2
 Event trees
Event 3
 Event trees
Event 3
 Event trees
Event 4
 Event trees
Event 4
 Event trees
Event 5
 Event trees
Event 5
 Event trees
Event 6
 Event trees
Event 7
 Event trees
Event 7
 Event trees
Event 8
 Event trees
Event 8
 Event trees
Event 9
 Consequences analysis

Solve the problem with Britter-McQuaid model.

We will use Aloha, considering the rupture occurred in
proximity of the road tanker (hole)

Diameter 2m
Consequences analysis

50 °C

Diameter 3 m
Consequences analysis
Diameter 2m
 Event tree example

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095758200900072X
 Bow-tie diagram example

https://joelbchristian.com/tree/tree.html
 Fault tree example – FTA software

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0950423021001935
 Test yourselves!

• Costruire l'albero dei guasti per il guasto dei sistemi nella figura.
• Scrivere le funzioni della struttura del sistema.
• Riducili per ottenere il loro minimal cut set
 Test yourselves!

Considera il diagramma a blocchi dell'affidabilità nella figura.

• Costruisci l'albero dei guasti corrispondente all'evento principale: "nessun flusso da 1 a 2".
• Trova i minimal cut sets.
• Calcolare l‘unavailability del sistema, dato che l‘unavailability di ogni componente è U=0.01.
 Test yourselves!
Un sistema di generazione elettrica è mostrato nella figura seguente sotto forma di diagramma a blocchi. Sono da considerare
solo i componenti principali: i motori E1, E2 e i generatori G1, G2, G3. Ogni generatore è valutato a 30 KVA. Il sistema deve fornire
almeno 60KVA.

• Disegna un albero dei guasti per il fallimento del sistema nel soddisfare la domanda richiesta.
• Trova i minimal cut sets.
• Stimare l'inaffidabilità del sistema per un mese (720 h) di funzionamento dato che il tasso di guasto per ciascun motore è 5 10-
6 h-1 e per ogni generatore 10-5 h-1
 Test yourselves!

In the domestic hot water system in the Figure, the control of the temperature is
achieved by the controller opening and closing the main gas valve when the water
temperature goes outside the preset limits
Tmin =140F,Tmax =180F.

1. Formulate a list of undesired safety and reliability events

2.Construct the fault tree for the top event rupture of water
tank assuming only the following primary failure events:
1: basic tank failure
2: relief valve jammed closed
3: gas valve fails jammed open
4: controller fails to close gas valve
5: basic failure of temperature Monitor
3. Find the minimal cut sets;
4.Assume primary failure event probabilities equal to 0.1 and
compute the probability of the top event working through the
fault tree;
5. Compute the probability of the top event from the minimal
cut sets found in 3.
 Test yourselves!

The system represented in the figure illustrates the operation of a lamp fed
by two batteries and a power unit. In order to have energy in the circuit it is
enough that one of the energy sources (i.e., battery 1, battery 2, power unit)
, works.

Build the event tree for the event “failure of the lighting system” and compute
its probability based on the component probabilities indicated on the Figure.
Test yourselves!
 Test yourselves!
In a process plant, flammable gas that is accidentally released can be detected by a process operator working in the area.

The process operator can only detect gas if she is present in the area where the gas is released. There are several operators working in the plant, but only
one operator is on duty at any time.

If she is not present, she can not detect the gas, but if she is present, there is a possibility that this may happen. An operator is present 30 % of the time.

The probability that the operator will not detect the gas is 0.3. If the gas is released, there is a possibility that the release may ignite.

The probability of ignition is 0.1 given that gas is released.

The frequency of gas release is 0.5 per year. If the gas is detected (automatically or by the operator), the operator will try to escape and there is a 50 %
probability that she escapes in time if she is present when a gas release takes place.

Given that someone is in the area when ignition occurs, the probability of being killed is 0.2.
Test yourselves!
 Grazie per l’attenzione!

Contacts: maria.portarapillo@unina.it – MS Teams