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Asia Aviation
(AAV.BK/AAV TB)
2.4
(15) คําแนะนําขาย โดยประเมินราคาเป้าหมายปี 2566 ใหม่ที่ 3.07 บาท (อิงจาก P/BV ที่ 1.8x, +2.0 S.D.) เพื่อ
2.2
Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 Jun-22 Aug-22 Oct-22
(25) สะท้อนถึงแนวโน้มที่ดีข้ ึนในปี 2566F จากเดิมที่ 2.55 บาท (+1.5 S.D.)
Share Price Price performance relative to SET
Risks
Source: SET
ราคาเชื้อเพลิงสู งขึ้น, COVID-19 ระบาด, เศรษฐกิจถดถอย
Key financials and valuations
Dec-19A Dec-20A Dec-21A Dec-22F Dec-23F
Revenue (Bt mn) 40,181 13,634 3,828 16,166 36,698
Gross profit (Bt mn) 1,822 (6,850) (7,395) (7,275) 3,303
EBIT (Bt mn) (451) (7,527) (11,800) (8,487) 2,202
Net profit (Bt mn) (474) (4,764) (6,647) (12,453) 131
EPS (Bt) (0.10) (0.98) (0.67) (0.97) 0.01
DPS (Bt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
EPS growth (%) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
P/E (x) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
P/B (x) 0.6 0.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 25.6 N.A. N.A. N.A. 12.8
Parin Kitchatornpitak Net Debt to Equity (%) 85.2 252.7 188.0 155.7 159.7
66.2658.8888 Ext. 8858 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
parink@kgi.co.th Return on Avg. Equity (%) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.6
Figure 7: Company profile Figure 8: Shareholding structure (as of January 31, 2022)
Asia Aviation (AAV) was established on February 14, 2006, as a holding
company, now consisting of just Thai Air Asia Co., Ltd. Thai Air Asia
(TAA) was set up on September 19, 2003, to operate Thailand’s first
low cost airline. Currently, AAV holds a 55% stake in TAA, and the rest
by Air Asia Investment (100% held by Air Asia Berhad, listed on the
Malaysian Stock Exchange and the major shareholder of Air Asia
Group). TAA focuses on short-haul and point-to-point flights with a
network covering 18 domestic routes and 27 international routes. Its
hubs are now located in Bangkok, Chiangmai, Krabi, Phuket and U-
Tapao.
Source: Company data Source: Company data, KGI Securities Research
100
30.0
80
60 20.0
40
10.0
20
0 0.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
All traffics LCC traffics LCC penetration 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: Company data, KGI Securities Research Source: Company data, KGI Securities Research
Figure 11: Breakdown of international tourist arrivals in Figure 12: Breakdown of international tourist arrivals in
2019 2020
Percent Percent
China Others
21.8 19.7 Others
27.5
China 18.6
26.9 24.7
Asean Asean
Source: Company data, KGI Securities Research Source: Company data, KGI Securities Research
Figure 13: Breakdown of international tourist arrivals in Figure 14: Trading P/BV
2021
Percent Times
2.1
US, 11.1
1.8 +2.0 sd = 1.8x
58.7 0.9
Europe 12.6
Others -1.0 sd = 0.6x
0.6
-2.0 sd = 0.2x
0.3
Asean, 7.7
0.0
China, 3.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F
Source: Company data, KGI Securities Research Source: Bloomberg, KGI Securities Research
Year to 31 Dec (Bt mn) 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F Others (738) (3,774) (2,317) (2,617) (2,917)
Growth (% YoY) Investment Cash Flow (1,794) 12,064 1,284 411 439
Sales 3.3 (66.1) (71.9) 322.3 127.0 Net CAPEX (380) (821) (100) (1,000) (1,000)
OP N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. Change in LT Investment (1) 0 0 0 0
EBITDA (39.0) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. Change in Other Assets (1,413) 12,885 1,383 1,411 1,439
NP N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. Free Cash Flow (828) 11,166 (3,063) (11,740) 622
EPS N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Financing Cash Flow 688 (14,038) 7,313 6,465 (1,869)
Profitability (%)
Change in Share Capital 0 0 0 5,703 0
Gross Margin 4.5 (50.2) (193.2) (45.0) 9.0
Net Change in Debt (1,527) (7,334) (50) (51) (52)
Operating Margin (1.1) (55.2) (308.2) (52.5) 6.0
EBITDA Margin 3.2 (8.6) (166.3) (29.6) 16.1 Change in Other LT Liab. 2,215 (6,704) 7,362 813 (1,817)
Net Profit Margin (1.2) (34.9) (173.6) (77.0) 0.4 Net Cash Flow (140) (2,872) 4,249 (5,275) (1,247)
ROAA (0.8) (7.0) (9.3) (15.9) 0.2
ROAE (2.4) (33.4) (32.9) (57.0) 0.6 Source: KGI Research
Stability
Gross Debt/Equity (%) 176.6 354.8 269.2 257.2 261.1
Net Debt/Equity (%) 85.2 252.7 188.0 155.7 159.7 Rates of Return on Invested Capital
Interest Coverage (x) 0.6 (0.6) (4.2) (6.2) (4.1)
Interest & ST Debt Coverage (x) (0.1) (0.8) (1.2) (0.8) 0.2 COGS Depreciation Operating Exp. Operating
Year 1- + + =
Revenue Revenue Revenue Margin
Cash Flow Interest Coverage (x) 1.3 (0.5) (2.3) (5.9) 0.1 2019 95.5% 4.3% 8.2% -7.9%
Cash Flow/Interest & ST Debt (x) 0.2 (0.1) (0.5) (1.1) 0.0 2020 150.2% 46.6% 12.2% -109.1%
Current Ratio (x) 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 2021 293.2% 141.9% 32.3% -367.4%
Quick Ratio (x) 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 2022F 145.0% 22.9% 10.0% -77.9%
2023F 91.0% 10.1% 6.0% -7.1%
Net Debt (Bt mn) 16,997.7 36,048.4 37,980.0 34,025.7 35,027.6 Working Capital Net PPE Other Assets Capital
Per Share Data (Bt) Year 1/ + + =
Revenue Revenue Revenue Turnover
EPS (0.1) (1.0) (0.7) (1.0) 0.0 2019 0.10 0.77 1.57 0.41
CFPS 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 2020 0.06 2.98 4.99 0.12
2021 1.35 10.06 18.60 0.03
BVPS 5.7 3.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 2022F 0.29 2.45 4.83 0.13
SPS 8.3 2.8 0.4 1.3 2.9 2023F 0.06 1.11 2.16 0.30
EBITDA/Share 0.3 (0.2) (0.6) (0.4) 0.5 Operating Capital Cash After-tax Return
Year x x =
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Margin Turnover Tax Rate on Inv. Capital
2019 -7.9% 0.4 100.0% -3.3%
Activity 2020 -109.1% 0.1 92.9% -12.6%
Asset Turnover (x) 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 2021 -367.4% 0.0 87.3% -10.7%
Days Receivables 5.4 7.6 53.7 14.0 6.8 2022F -77.9% 0.1 75.0% -7.7%
Days Inventory 2.7 6.4 22.0 5.5 2.5 2023F -7.1% 0.3 100.0% -2.1%
Days Payable 8.7 13.5 32.2 16.2 11.9 Source: KGI Securities Research
Cash Cycle (0.6) 0.6 43.5 3.3 (2.6)
Source: www.thai-iod.com
Disclaimer: The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association ("IOD") regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the
Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative
Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an assessment of operation
and is not based on inside information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be
changed after that date or when there is any change to the relevant information. Nevertheless, KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (KGI) does not confirm, verify, or certify
the accuracy and completeness of such survey result.
Level 5: Extended
Stock Company name Stock Company name Stock Company name
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE GLOBAL SIAM GLOBAL HOUSE QH QUALITY HOUSES
ANAN ANANDA DEVELOPMENT GPSC GLOBAL POWER SYNERGY RATCH RATCHABURI ELECTRICITY GENERATING HOLDING
BBL BANGKOK BANK HMPRO HOME PRODUCT CENTER ROBINS ROBINSON DEPARTMENT STORE
BCH BANGKOK CHAIN HOSPITAL IRPC IRPC SCC THE SIAM CEMENT
BDMS BANGKOK DUSIT MEDICAL SERVICES KBANK KASIKORNBANK SIRI SANSIRI
BIGC BIG C SUPERCENTER KCE KCE ELECTRONICS SPALI SUPALAI
CK CH. KARNCHANG KKP KIATNAKIN BANK STEC SINO-THAI ENGINEERING AND CONSTRUCTION
DCC DYNASTY CERAMIC KTB KRUNG THAI BANK TCAP THANACHART CAPITAL
DELTA DELTA ELECTRONICS (THAILAND) LPH LADPRAO GENERAL HOSPITAL TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
DRT DIAMOND ROOFING TILES PACE PACE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION TMT THAI METAL TRADE
EGCO ELECTRICITY GENERATING PTT PTT TOP THAI OIL
GFPT GFPT PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL
Level 4: Certified
Stock Company name Stock Company name Stock Company name
AAV ASIA AVIATION ERW THE ERAWAN GROUP SAPPE SAPPE
AP ASIAN PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT GLOW GLOW ENERGY SAWAD SRISAWAD POWER 1979
BA BANGKOK AIRWAYS GUNKUL GUNKUL ENGINEERING SCB THE SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK
BANPU BANPU ILINK INTERLINK COMMUNICATION SCN SCAN INTER
BCP THE BANGCHAK PETROLEUM KTC KRUNGTHAI CARD SEAFCO SEAFCO
BH BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL LH LAND AND HOUSES SVI SVI
BJCHI BJC HEAVY INDUSTRIES LPN L.P.N. DEVELOPMENT TASCO TIPCO ASPHALT
CBG CARABAO GROUP MAKRO SIAM MAKRO TKN TAOKAENOI FOOD & MARKETING
CENTEL CENTRAL PLAZA HOTEL MALEE MALEE SAMPRAN TMB TMB BANK
CHG CHULARAT HOSPITAL MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL TRT TIRATHAI
CKP CK POWER MODERN MODERNFORM GROUP TRUE TRUE CORPORATION
CPF CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS NOK NOK AIRLINES TVO THAI VEGETABLE OIL
CPN CENTRAL PATTANA PTTEP PTT EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION
DTAC TOTAL ACCESS COMMUNICATION PYLON PYLON
Level 3: Established
Stock Company name Stock Company name Stock Company name
BEM BANGKOK EXPRESSWAY AND METRO MTLS MUANGTHAI LEASING SPRC STAR PETROLEUM REFINING
CPALL CP ALL SCI SCI ELECTRIC
No progress
Stock Company name Stock Company name Stock Company name
AOT AIRPORTS OF THAILAND BPP BANPU POWER FN FN FACTORY OUTLET
BCPG BCPG BTS BTS GROUP HOLDINGS TPCH TPC POWER HOLDING
Source: www.cgthailand.org
Disclaimer: The disclosure of the Anti-Corruption Progress Indicators of a listed company on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, which is assessed by the relevant institution as disclosed
by the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission, is made in order to comply with the policy and sustainable development plan for the listed companies. The relevant institution
made this assessment based on the information received from the listed company, as stipulated in the form for the assessment of Anti-corruption which refers to the Annual Registration
Statement (Form 56-1), Annual Report (Form 56-2), or other relevant documents or reports of such listed company . The assessment result is therefore made from the perspective of a
third party. It is not an assessment of operation and is not based on any inside information. Since this assessment is only the assessment result as of the date appearing in the
assessment result, it may be changed after that date or when there is any change to the relevant information. Nevertheless, KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (KGI) does
not confirm, verify, or certify the accuracy and completeness of the assessment result.
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Singapore 068807
Outperform (OP) The stock's excess return over the next twelve months is ranked in the top 40% of KGI's coverage
universe in the related market (e.g. Taiwan)..
Neutral (N) The stock's excess return over the next twelve months is ranked in the range between the top 40%
and the bottom 40% of KGI's coverage universe in the related market (e.g. Taiwan)
Under perform (U) The stock's excess return over the next twelve months is ranked in the bottom 40% of KGI's
coverage universe in the related market (e.g. Taiwan).
Restricted (R) KGI policy and/or applicable law regulations preclude certain types of communications, including an
investment recommendation, during the course of KGI's engagement in an investment banking
transaction and in certain other circumstances.
Note When an analyst publishes a new report on a covered stock, we rank the stock's excess return with
those of other stocks in KGI's coverage universe in the related market. We will assign a rating based
on its ranking. If an analyst does not publish a new report on a covered stock, its rating will not be
changed automatically.
Disclaimer KGI Securities (Thailand) Plc. ( “The Company” ) disclaims all warranties with regards to all information contained herein. In no event
shall the Company be liable for any direct, indirect or any damages whatsoever resulting from loss of income or profits, arising by
utilization and reliance on the information herein. All information hereunder does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any
securities but constitutes our sole judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice.