IDEA

2 มีนาคม 2566

CP All
CPALL TB /CPALL.BK

Sector: Commerce NEUTRAL

อยู่ในจุดเข้าซื้อที่น่าสนใจ คาแนะนาพื้ นฐาน: ซื้อ

เป้าหมายพื้ นฐาน: 78.00 บาท
ราคา (1/3/66): 61.00 บาท
แม้ผลประกอบการไตรมาส 4/65 ที่ ออกมาน่าผิ ดหวัง แต่ เรามอง Price chart

ว่าการปรับตัวลดลงของราคาหุ้นเมื่อเร็วๆ นี้สะท้อนถึงความกังวล Bt
75
Price Rel. to SET Rel. Idx
150
ของตลาด และเหตุการณ์เลวร้ายที่สุดได้ผ่านพ้ นไปแล้ว เมื่อมองไป
93
65 100
ข้างหน้า การฟื้ นตัวของการดาเนินงานมีความแข็งแกร่ง และความ 55 50
เสี่ยง/ผลตอบแทนยังน่าสนใจ 45 0
03/22 04/22 06/22 08/22 10/22 12/22 02/23

การดาเนินการฟื้ นตัวต่อเนื่องนับตั้งแต่ต้นปีจนถึงปัจจุบัน
Share price perf. (%) 1M 3M 12M
เราเข้ า ร่วมการประชุ มนั ก วิเคราะห์ ข อง CPALL เมื่ อบ่ ายวั น พุ ธ ซึ่ ง ผู้ บ ริห าร Relative to SET (7.6) (1.8) (5.6)
ยืนยันว่าผลประกอบการจะฟื้ นตัวอย่างต่อเนื่องในปี 2566 จนถึงปัจจุบัน การ Absolute (11.3) (2.8) (10.0)

เติ บ โตขอดยอดขายสาขาเดิ ม ของ 7-Eleven อยู่ ที่ เ กื อ บ 10% (แม้ ว่ า ฐาน

Key statistics
ยอดขายสาขาเดิ ม ในไตรมาส 1/65 จะสู งก็ ต าม) นอกจากนี้ 7-Eleven เริ่ม Market cap Bt548.0bn USD15.8bn
เห็ น การใช้ จ่ ายที่ ม ากขึ้ น อย่ างมากในหมู่ นั ก ท่ อ งเที่ ย วชาวจี น นั บตั้ ง แต่ ต้ น ปี 12-mth price range Bt52.8/Bt73.8
จนถึ ง ปั จ จุ บั น (โดยคาดการณ์ จากการช าระเงิ น ร้ า นค่ า ผ่ า น WeChat) 12-mth avg daily volume Bt1,516m USD43.6m

ค่ า ใช้ จ่ า ยในการด าเนิ น งานจะยั ง คงสู ง แต่ ก ารเติ บ โตของก าไรจะหนุ น โดย
# of shares (m) 8,983
Est. free float (%) 57.8
ยอดขายที่เพิ่ มขึ้น (ทั้งที่รา้ นค้าและผ่านการจัดส่ง) และการขยายตัวของอัตรา Foreign limit (%) 49.0
ก าไร โดยผู้ บ ริห ารตั้ ง เป้ า อั ต ราก าไรขั้ น ต้ น จะเพิ่ มขึ้ น 20bps YoY หนุ น โดย
Consensus BLS target price Consensus
ผลิ ต ภั ณ ฑ์ พ ร้ อ มรั บ ประทาน (RTE) ซึ่ งเป็ น ผ ลิ ต ภั ณ ฑ์ ที่ แ ข่ ง ขั น ได้ ข อง rating vs. Consensus earnings
7-Eleven % Bt Btm BLS Cons.
100 79.00 25000
ตัวชี้วัดเศรษฐกิจหลายตัวหนุนการเติบโตของการบริโภค 80
Buy
78.00 20000
60 93 77.00 15000
จ านวนนั ก ท่ อ งเที่ ย วที่ เ พิ่ มขึ้ น การว่ า งงานที่ ล ดลง และอั ต ราเงิ น เฟ้ อ ที่ 40 76.00 10000
5000
20 75.00
คลี่ คลายจะหนุ น การใช้จ่ายของผู้ บริโภคในปี 2566 (ตามรูปที่ 5-8) ดั งที่ เรา 0 Sell
0 7 74.00 0
BLS Cons.

กล่ า วข้ า งต้ น ในปี 2562 นั ก ท่ อ งเที่ ย วใช้ จ่ า ยเฉลี่ ย 8,580 บาท/รายในการ
1 Hold BLS Cons. 22E 23E

ช้ อ ปปิ้ งในประเทศไทย (ตามรู ป ที่ 5) และคิ ด เป็ น 15% ของยอดค้ า ปลี ก Financial summary
นอกจากนี้ การท่องเที่ยวและอุตสาหกรรมที่เกี่ยวข้องจ้างแรงงานอย่างน้อย FY Ended 31 Dec 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
10% ของแรงงานไทย (และกาลังจ้างพนักงาน) ดังนั้นเราจึงคาดว่าอัตราการ Revenues (Btm) 829,099 911,479 986,199 1,051,205

ว่ า งงานจะลดลงและก าลั ง ซื้ อจะเพิ่ มขึ้ น ภาวะเงิ น เฟ้ อ ที่ ค ลี่ ค ลายลงเป็ น อี ก
Net profit (Btm) 13,272 17,891 22,765 27,436
EPS (Bt) 1.48 1.99 2.53 3.05
แนวโน้มที่จะหนุนผู้บริโภคชาวไทย ปัจจัย ทั้งหมดเหล่านี้จะหนุนการเติบโตของ EPS growth (%) +2.2% +34.8% +27.2% +20.5%
ยอดขายสาขาเดิมของ 7-Eleven ในปี 2566 Core profit (Btm) 13,281 17,891 22,765 27,436
Core EPS (Bt) 1.48 1.99 2.53 3.05
ยอดขายคาดว่าจะเพิ่ มขึ้นเร็วกว่าต้นทุนในปี 2566-67 Core EPS growth (%) +42.3% +34.7% +27.2% +20.5%
PER (x) 41.3 30.6 24.1 20.0
แม้จะมีการปรับลดประมาณการกาไรลง (ตามรูปที่ 9) เรายังคาดว่า CPALL PBV (x) 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6
จะรายงานการเติ บ โตของก าไรหลั ก ที่ 35% ในปี 2566 และ 27% ในปี 2567 Dividend (Bt) 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2
ยอดขายและอั ต ราก าไรที่ ข ยายตั ว ของ 7-Eleven จะกลบผลกระทบของ Dividend yield (%) 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.9

ค่าใช้จ่ายในการขายและบริหารที่สูงขึ้นในปี 2566 นอกเหนือจาก ร้านค้าใหม่

ROE (%) 13.0 17.1 20.1 22.2

และรายได้จากธุรกิจการจัดส่งที่เพิ่ มขึ้น เราคาดว่าปริมาณลูกค้าเข้าร้านค้าที่ CG / CAC Anti-Corruption Certification

เพิ่ มขึ้ น โดยเฉพาะอย่ า งยิ่ ง ที่ ส าขาในกรุ ง เทพฯ และแหล่ ง ท่ อ งเที่ ย ว (อย่ า ง Yes
น้ อย 50% ของยอดขายทั้ ง หมด) จะหนุ น ยอดขายและก าไรต่ อ สาขา และเรา /
คาดว่าการปรับราคาสินค้า (สาหรับสินค้า FMCG และสินค้า RTE ในปี 2565
และเครื่องดื่มในปี 2566) จะรักษาอัตรากาไรขั้นต้นของบริษัทในปี 2566
ความเสี่ยง / ผลตอบแทนยังน่าสนใจ
เรามองว่าการปรับตัวลดลงของราคาหุ้น CPALL เปิดโอกาสในการเข้าซื้อ แม้
เราจะปรับลดประมาณการกาไรลง แต่ เรายังคงคาแนะน า ซื้อ โดยปรับราคา ชาลินี คงเมือง
เป้าหมายด้วยวิธีคิดลดกระแสเงินสด (DCF) ณ สิ้นปี 2566 มาอยู่ที่ 78 บาท นักวิเคราะห์การลงทุนปัจจัยพื้ นฐานด้านหลักทรัพย์
(ลดลงจาก 80 บาท) CPALL ยังคงซื้อขายที่ PER ปี 2566 ที่ 30.8 เท่ า ใกล้ chalinee.con@bualuang.co.th
กับค่าเฉลี่ยระยะยาวที่ 31 เท่า แต่หากพิ จารณาการเติบโตอย่างแข็งแกร่งใน +66 2 618 1345
ปี 2567 ค่า PER ปี 2567 จะอยู่ที่ 24.2 เท่า ซึ่งต่ากว่าค่าเฉลี่ยระยะยาวมาก
Please see final page for additional important disclosures. Bualuang Securities Public Company
See disclaimer at the end of report Limited (“BLS”) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. BLS research is prepared by
research analysts who are not registered in the USA. BLS research is distributed in the USA
pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
 | RESEARCH

CPALL: Financial Tables – Year

PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E Revenue growth and asset turnover
Revenue 565,207 829,099 911,479 986,199 1,051,205
% Revenue growth (%) (LHS)
Cost of sales and services (444,838) (651,100) (714,632) (773,276) (822,898) x
Asset turnover (x) (RHS)
Gross profit 120,369 177,999 196,847 212,923 228,308 50 2.0
SG&A (116,867) (165,414) (178,082) (188,596) (198,058) 40
EBIT 3,502 12,585 18,764 24,327 30,250 1.5
30
Interest expense (12,028) (16,832) (15,595) (15,016) (15,050)
20 1.0
Other income/exp. 20,665 23,506 25,321 27,045 28,182
10
EBT 12,139 19,260 28,490 36,355 43,383 0.5
(1,694) (3,861) (5,946) (7,564) (8,962) 0
Corporate tax
After-tax net profit (loss) 10,445 15,399 22,544 28,791 34,420 (10) 0.0
(888) (2,949) (5,429) (6,821) (7,800) 19 20 21 22 23E 24E 25E
Minority interest
Equity earnings from affiliates (226) 831 776 795 815 A/C receivable & A/C payable days
Extra items 3,654 (9) 0 0 0
12,985 13,272 17,891 22,765 27,436 days Inventory turnover (days)
Net profit (loss)
AP / Cost of Goods (days)
Reported EPS 1.45 1.48 1.99 2.53 3.05 100
Fully diluted EPS 1.45 1.48 1.99 2.53 3.05
9,331 13,281 17,891 22,765 27,436 80
Core net profit
Core EPS 1.04 1.48 1.99 2.53 3.05 60
EBITDA 27,097 49,129 56,160 63,767 71,556 40
KEY RATIOS 20
Revenue growth (%) 7.5 46.7 9.9 8.2 6.6
0
Gross margin (%) 21.3 21.5 21.6 21.6 21.7 19 20 21 22 23E 24E 25E
EBITDA margin (%) 4.8 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.8
Operating margin (%) 0.6 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.9 Profit margins
Net margin (%) 2.3 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.6 % Gross margin (%) EBIT margin (%)
Core profit margin (%) 1.7 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.6
1.8 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.7 25
ROA (%)
ROCE (%) 2.5 2.0 2.7 3.4 4.0 20
Asset turnover (x) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 15
Current ratio (x) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 10
Gearing ratio (x) 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1
5
Interest coverage (x) 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.0
0
BALANCE SHEET (Btm) 19 20 21 22 23E 24E 25E
Cash & Equivalent 97,134 71,891 82,667 93,769 108,408
Accounts receivable 3,341 3,620 5,007 5,430 5,735 Capital expenditure
Inventory 50,535 58,183 50,570 54,731 58,189 Capex (Bt,bn)
Bt,bn %
PP&E-net 211,533 213,410 239,006 252,232 262,738 Capex / Net PPE (%)
569,350 576,958 582,281 585,323 588,084 500 250
Other assets
Total assets 931,893 924,061 959,531 991,484 1,023,154 400 200
Accounts payable 106,863 115,963 127,247 137,509 145,711
300 150
ST debts & current portion 62,057 42,365 27,355 27,508 27,644
Long-term debt 311,679 309,061 329,526 329,526 329,526 200 100
Other liabilities 158,485 166,372 172,117 177,219 181,164 100 50
Total liabilities 639,085 633,760 656,245 671,762 684,045
8,983 8,983 8,983 8,983 8,983 0 0
Paid-up capital
19 20 21 22 23E 24E 25E
Share premium 1,684 1,684 1,684 1,684 1,684
Retained earnings 73,242 80,318 87,874 97,489 109,076 Debt serviceability
Shareholders equity 104,134 100,724 108,281 117,895 129,483
188,673 189,577 195,006 201,827 209,626 (ST debt + Interest) / EBITDA
Minority interests
(Debt + Interest) / EBITDA
Total Liab.&Shareholders' equity 931,893 924,061 959,531 991,484 1,023,154 15
CASH FLOW (Btm)
Net income 12,985 13,272 17,891 22,765 27,436 10
Depreciation and amortization 23,595 36,544 37,395 39,441 41,307
Change in working capital 22,463 3,822 28,561 7,309 5,765 5
FX, non-cash adjustment & others 0 0 0 0 0
Cash flows from operating activities 67,756 49,795 78,442 70,302 74,677 0
Capex (Invest)/Divest (416,999) (42,042) (70,580) (54,383) (53,337) 19 20 21 22 23E 24E 25E
Others 239,838 4,102 6,028 6,821 7,800
Dividend payout
Cash flows from investing activities (177,161) (37,940) (64,551) (47,562) (45,537)
Debt financing (repayment) 166,773 (16,097) 6,876 1,512 1,347 Bt/Shr Dividend (Bt)
%
Equity financing 1,637 (529) 0 0 0 Payout ratio (%)
Dividend payment (5,390) (7,666) (10,335) (13,150) (15,848) 1.4 70
1.08 1.14 1.17 1.19
Others 239,838 4,102 6,028 6,821 7,800 1.2 60
0.92
Cash flows from financing activities 164,774 (34,249) (3,459) (11,638) (14,501) 1.0 0.81 50
Net change in cash 51,758 (22,394) 10,432 11,102 14,639 0.8 0.57 40
0.6 30
Free cash flow (Btm) (349,243) 7,754 7,862 15,919 21,340
0.4 20
FCF per share (Bt) (38.9) 0.9 0.9 1.8 2.4 0.2 10
KEY ASSUMPTIONS 0.0 0
Number of stores 13,134 13,838 14,538 15,238 15,938 19 20 21 22 23E 24E 25E
SSS growth - Exclude T/E (%) -6.7% 15.9% 8.0% 6.0% 3.0%

••• CPALL 2
 | RESEARCH

CPALL: Financial Tables – Quarter

QUARTERLY PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 Revenue trend
Revenue 179,226 194,409 208,210 207,617 218,863 Bt,bn Revenue (Bt,bn) (LHS) %
Revenue growth (% YoY)
Cost of sales and services (140,463) (152,587) (164,470) (162,429) (171,615) 250 70
Gross profit 38,763 41,822 43,741 45,188 47,248 60
200
SG&A (36,610) (38,295) (40,804) (41,916) (44,398) 50
150 40
EBIT 2,154 3,527 2,936 3,272 2,850 30
Interest expense (3,613) (3,825) (3,977) (4,283) (4,747) 100 20
Other income/exp. 5,563 5,322 5,445 6,191 6,548 10
50
0
EBT 4,103 5,025 4,404 5,180 4,651
0 (10)
Corporate tax (837) (946) (933) (987) (996) 2Q21 4Q21 2Q22 4Q22
After-tax net profit (loss) 3,267 4,079 3,472 4,193 3,655 Revenue trend (accumulated)
Minority interest (615) (801) (611) (614) (923) Bt,bn Accum. Revenue (Bt,bn) %
Equity earnings from affiliates 149 224 202 230 175 % of FY Revenue
900
Extra items 3,903 (49) 0 (133) 172 800 100 100 120
Net profit (loss) 6,703 3,453 3,063 3,677 3,079 700 100
600 68 74
Reported EPS 0.75 0.38 0.34 0.41 0.34 80
500 49
400 46 60
Fully diluted EPS 0.75 0.38 0.34 0.41 0.34
300 23 40
Core net profit 2,801 3,502 3,063 3,810 2,907 200
100 20
Core EPS (Bt) 0.31 0.39 0.34 0.42 0.32
0 0
EBITDA 9,946 12,487 11,917 12,419 12,307 2Q21 4Q21 2Q22 4Q22

KEY RATIOS Net profit trend (accumulated)

Gross margin (%) 21.6 21.5 21.0 21.8 21.6 Bt,m Accum. Profit (Bt,m) %
% of FY Profit
EBITDA margin (%) 5.5 6.4 5.7 6.0 5.6 14,000
100 100 120
Operating margin (%) 1.2 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.3 12,000
100
10,000 77
Net margin (%) 3.7 1.8 1.5 1.8 1.4 80
8,000
Core profit margin (%) 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.8 1.3 48 49 60
6,000 37
BV (Bt) 32.6 33.0 32.7 32.0 32.3 4,000 26 40
ROE (%) 25.7 12.9 11.7 14.9 12.2 2,000 20
ROA (%) 2.9 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.3 0 0
Current ratio (x) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 2Q21 4Q21 2Q22 4Q22

Gearing ratio (x) 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.4

Gross profit margin
Interest coverage (x) 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6
% FY GPM (%) Gross margin (%)
QUARTERLY BALANCE SHEET (Btm) 22.0
Cash & Equivalent 97,134 88,449 61,494 49,654 71,891 21.8
21.6
Accounts receivacle 17,085 15,339 15,330 17,118 18,633 21.4
Inventory 50,535 51,007 52,059 52,903 58,183 21.2
211,533 210,590 209,878 211,683 213,410 21.0
PP&E-net
20.8
Other assets 555,606 555,495 560,169 568,189 561,945 20.6
Total assets 931,893 920,880 898,929 899,547 924,061 20.4
2Q21 4Q21 2Q22 4Q22
Accounts payacle 106,863 100,287 103,140 93,668 115,963
ST debts & current portion 62,057 45,793 42,519 30,431 42,365 EBIT margin
Long-term debt 311,679 304,153 306,678 325,618 87,354
% FY EBIT margin (%)
Other liacilities 158,485 174,043 152,882 162,372 388,078 EBIT margin (%)
5.0
Total liabilities 639,085 624,275 605,220 612,089 633,760
4.0
Paid-up capital 8,983 8,983 8,983 8,983 8,983
3.0
Share premium 1,973 1,973 1,684 1,684 1,973
2.0
Retained earnings 73,242 76,443 73,829 77,214 80,318
1.0
Shareholders equity 104,134 107,265 104,948 98,626 100,724
0.0
Minority interests 188,673 189,341 188,761 188,832 189,577
(1.0)
Total Liac.&Shareholders' equity 931,893 920,880 898,929 899,547 924,061
2Q21 4Q21 2Q22 4Q22

Key Statistics 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22

Number of stores 13,134 13,253 13,433 13,660 13,828
SSS growth (%) 1.3% 13.0% 14.2% 22.1% 15.0%

Company profile
The company was established in 1988 after being granted exclusive rights from 7-Eleven Inc, USA, to operate 7-Eleven convenience stores in
Thailand. CPALL launched an IPO and listed on the SET in Sep 2003. The company acquired Siam Makro Plc (MAKRO) in Apr 2013 and Tesco Plc’s
Thailand and Malaysia operations (now branded Lotus’s) in Dec 2020. CPALL has also won 30-year master franchises to operate 7-Eleven outlets in
Cambodia (in May 2020) and Laos in May (Aug 2020). At YE21 the company had a total of 13,134 7-Eleven stores in Thailand. Charoen Pokphand
Group (CPG) holds a combined 35.44% of CPALL’s total paid up capital.

••• CPALL 3
 | RESEARCH

Figure 1 : Traffic to 7-Eleven stores—traffic to stores continued Figure 2 : Ticket size profile—boosted by delivery sales, mean
to recover toward the 2019 level, led by heavier tourist arrivals. ticket size in 2022 was far above the 2019 level.
1,153
1,173
1,122
1,400 40% 85 84 84 84 82 85
90 79 75 76 77 82 16%
1,200 30% 80 70 72 70

928
926
918
917
841

916
12%

871
845
823

822
1,000 20% 70

730
10% 60 8%
800 50
0% 4%
600 40
-10% 30 0%
400 -20% 20
-4%
200 -30% 10
0 -40% 0 -8%

3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
Ticket size-LH (Bt) % YoY- RH
Traffic per store per day-LH (customers) % YoY- RH
Sources: Company data, Bloomberg, Bualuang Research

Figure 3 : CPALL’s standalone margin—price rises and strong Figure 4 : CPALL’s core profit composition, by business—
sales of personal care items should support GM expansion. looking forward, 7-Eleven and Lotus’s will drive growth in 2023.

(%) (Bt bn)

30 30
29 25 3.9
28.2 28.128.3 3.3
28 28.0 20 6.1 6.9
0.4 1.9 6.1
27 26.9 15
6.4 0.2 5.4
26 26.8 10 4.2
26.7 16.9 16.6
26.4 6.1 13.4
25 5 10.0 8.7 10.5
24 0 3.0
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22

2024E
2022
2023E

2025E

2019 2020 2021* 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E

CPALL makro Lotus's
Note: *CPALL's holding in MAKRO reduced from 93% to 59% after
Reported GM Product margiin EBT and PO in Oct 2021

Sources: Company data, Bualuang Research

Figure 5 : Tourism spending—in 2019, tourists spent Bt8,580/ Figure 6 : Thailand’s tourist arrivals versus change in PCI—
head on shopping and comprised 15% of Thailand’s retail sales. strong tourist arrivals should fuel personal consumer spending.
80,000 69,816 4,500 25%
4,000 20%
56,160 3,500 15%
60,000 3,000 10%
37,947 2,500 5%
40,000 32,303 31,573 2,000 0%
26,907 1,500 -5%
1,000 -10%
20,000 500 -15%
0 -20%
16,836
Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23
Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22
May-22
May-19

May-20

May-21

8,162 8,580 9,123 7,441 8,647

0
Middle Europe Total China India ASEAN
East
Tourist arrivals (mn)- LH Chg in PCI YoY- RH
Shopping Accommodation F&B Others

Sources: Company data, Bualuang Research

••• CPALL 4
 | RESEARCH

Figure 7 : Thailand’s unemployment rate—more hiring by hospi- Figure 8 : Thailand’s headline CPI—inflation is starting to ease,
tality and related industries will reduce unemployment. which should help with overall consumption.
3% (%)

10
8
2% 6
4
2
1% 0
-2
-4
0% -6

May-20

May-21

May-22
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jan-22

Jul-22
Jan-20

Nov-20
Jan-21

Nov-21

Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-20

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22
Mar-21

Mar-22
Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22
Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22
Sources: Company data, Bualuang Research

Figure 9 : Summary of earnings forecast changes for CPALL

CPALL-consol 2023E 2024E 2025E CPALL-consol 2023E 2024E 2025E
Our SG&A expenses assumption Revenue (Bt m) Core profit (Bt m)
is now higher and our expectation Previous 885,991 952,378 1,008,615 Previous 19,234 25,891 30,459
for GM is a bit lower. Revised 911,479 986,199 1,051,205 Revised 17,891 22,765 27,436
% change 2.9% 3.6% 4.2% % change -7.0% -12.1% -9.9%
Rising tourist arrivals will make Operating profit (Bt m) SSSG- CVS only (%)
for a strong 7-Eleven SSSG (we Previous 45,437 54,949 61,805 Previous 8.0% 6.0% 3.0%
assume 8% for 2023) and push Revised 44,085 51,371 58,432 Revised 8.0% 6.0% 3.0%
up its top-line. % change -3.0% -6.5% -5.5% Gross profit margin (%)
EBITDA (Bt m) Previous 21.6% 21.9% 22.1%
Previous 83,132 94,416 102,897 Revised 21.6% 21.6% 21.7%
Revised 82,257 91,607 100,554 Operating margin (%)
% change -1.1% -3.0% -2.3% Previous 5.0% 5.6% 6.0%
Revised 4.8% 5.2% 5.6%
Sources: Company data, Bualuang Research

Figure 10 : Components of our DCF-derived valuation—because of our earnings forecast cuts, we have trimmed our YE23 target price
from Bt80 to Bt78.
DCF (Bt,m) 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E
EBIT(1-t) 35,746 41,545 47,234 52,718 56,885 62,385 67,006 71,847 76,931 82,322 88,036
Change in working capital (29,106) (6,058) (4,874) (5,138) (4,070) (4,197) (4,338) (4,473) (4,612) (4,755) (4,902)
Capital expenditure (CAPEX) 70,580 54,383 53,337 55,039 54,914 56,514 57,572 59,039 60,818 62,664 64,580
Depreciation and amortization 37,395 39,441 41,307 42,756 44,257 45,522 46,848 48,152 49,486 50,893 52,371
Enterprise free cash flow 31,668 32,660 40,077 45,573 50,298 55,591 60,619 65,433 70,211 75,306 80,729

Sum of PV 351,252 Sensitivity to DCF-TP WACC

Terminal Year 11 of Bt78 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0%
Terminal Growth 2.5% 1.5% 90.5 74.2 61.0 50.0 40.9
Terminal Value 1,848,342 2.0% 103.9 84.3 68.8 56.2 45.9
Terminal
PV of Terminal Value 822,820 2.5% 121.0 97.0 78.0 63.7 51.8
growth
3.0% 144.0 113.3 90.4 72.8 58.8
NPV 1,174,072 3.5% 176.1 135.0 105.9 84.2 67.5
Net Debt 280,001
Minority Interest 189,577
Enterprise value 704,494 Implied target PE (x) WACC assumptions
Share outstanding 8,983 2023 2024 Risk free Risk premium
Beta CoE CoD D/TA ratio WACC
TP (Bt/share) 78.0 39.16 30.78 3.0% 7.4% 95.5% 10.1% 3.2% 45.0% 7.0%
Sources: Company data, Bualuang Research

••• CPALL 5
 | RESEARCH

Regional Comparisons
Bloomberg Price Market Cap PER (x) EPS Growth (%) PBV (x) ROE (%) Div Yield (%)
(US$
Code (local curr.) equivalent) 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E
Suning Appliance Co Ltd 002024 CH CNY2.2 2,995 n.a. n.a. -112.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. -24.5 -14.9 0.0 0.0
Nitori Hldg Co Ltd 9843 JT JPY15,100.0 12,702 19.0 19.8 -7.5 -3.6 2.1 1.9 11.8 10.0 1.0 1.0
Lawson Inc 2651 JT JPY5,320.0 3,922 23.2 21.3 28.2 8.9 1.9 1.8 8.3 8.8 2.8 2.8
Seven & I Holdings Co Ltd 3382 JT JPY6,062.0 39,497 19.1 17.8 33.0 7.4 1.6 1.5 8.7 9.1 1.8 1.9
President Chain Store Corp 2912 TT TWD265.5 9,082 24.1 21.9 21.7 10.4 7.3 6.9 30.4 31.7 3.6 3.8
SM Prime Holdings Inc. SMPH PM PHP34.8 18,346 25.9 23.6 28.6 10.0 2.6 2.4 10.2 10.3 0.8 1.1
Home Depot HD US USD290.8 296,369 18.2 17.1 -4.3 5.9 167.2 199.6 n.m. n.m. 2.9 3.1
Costco whole sale corp COST US USD478.7 212,400 33.3 30.4 8.9 9.5 8.8 7.9 28.5 26.5 0.8 0.8
Carrefour CA FP EUR18.1 14,312 10.6 9.0 -9.5 18.0 1.2 1.1 11.6 12.8 3.5 4.0
C.P. All CPALL TB THB61.00 15,792 29.6 24.2 48.4 22.2 4.3 4.3 13.3 15.7 1.7 1.7
COM7 COM7 TB THB30.75 2,114 21.0 18.1 15.5 15.7 10.3 9.4 49.4 55.4 4.0 4.7
Siam Makro MAKRO TB THB40.75 12,425 36.6 29.7 52.6 23.1 1.4 1.4 4.0 4.9 1.6 1.6
Central Pattana CPN TB THB69.25 8,922 24.9 22.1 15.8 13.0 3.4 3.4 14.2 14.5 1.6 1.6
Berli Jucker BJC TB THB37.75 4,360 25.6 22.2 17.9 15.3 1.2 1.2 4.9 5.5 2.2 2.2
Home Product Center HMPRO TB THB13.70 5,192 26.8 23.8 14.3 8.3 6.9 6.5 26.8 28.2 2.8 3.1
Central Retail Corporation CRC TB THB45.00 7,821 31.8 27.8 11985.2 18.8 4.0 3.7 13.5 14.7 0.7 1.1
Index Living Mall ILM TB THB19.50 284 12.8 12.0 53.0 13.9 1.6 1.6 10.6 10.5 3.1 3.3
DoHome DOHOME TB THB14.80 1,240 27.2 19.7 -57.4 69.9 2.9 2.6 10.9 13.8 0.5 0.7
Siam Global House GLOBAL TB THB18.20 2,623 23.3 21.1 4.3 11.8 3.7 3.4 17.0 16.9 2.1 2.4
Simple average 24.1 21.2 638.8 15.5 12.9 14.5 13.9 15.2 2.0 2.2

PER band versus SD (next 12 months) PBV band versus SD (next 12 months)
x
x 16
70
14 +2.25 SD = 13.4x
+3 SD = 63.5x
60
+2 SD = 52.7x 12 +1.5 SD = 11.1x
50 10
+1 SD = 41.8x +0.75 SD = 8.8x
40 8
LT Average = 31.0x LT Average = 6.5x
30 6
-0.75 SD = 4.2x
-1 SD = 20.2x 4
20 -1.5 SD = 1.9x
2
10
0
YE11

YE16

YE21
YE10

YE12

YE13

YE14

YE15

YE17

YE18

YE19

YE20

YE22

YE23

YE21
YE09

YE10

YE11

YE12

YE13

YE14

YE15

YE16

YE17

YE18

YE19

YE20

YE22

YE23
PER band and share price PBV band and share price

150 350 10x

130 300 8x
110 50x 250
90 6x
200
70
150
50 4x
100
30 2x
10 50
1x
(10) 0
YE20
YE10

YE11

YE12

YE13

YE14

YE15

YE16

YE17

YE18

YE19

YE21

YE22

YE23

YE09

YE15

YE21
YE10

YE11

YE12

YE13

YE14

YE16

YE17

YE18

YE19

YE20

YE22

YE23

Foreign holdings Short selling activities during past four weeks

% CPALL Commerce Btm

50 250
40 43.3 200
150
30 100
50
20 0
22/2/23

26/2/23
27/1/23
29/1/23
31/1/23

10/2/23
12/2/23
14/2/23
16/2/23
18/2/23
20/2/23

24/2/23

28/2/23
2/2/23
4/2/23
6/2/23
8/2/23

10
0
8/22 9/22 10/22 11/22 12/22 1/23

••• CPALL 6
 | RESEARCH
Environmental Score 3.0
CPALL’s sustainable development goals phase-2
(2021-30) aim to achieve carbon neutrality and a
reduction in the usage of final energy of 25%. As
a retailer that consume resources, the company
also aims to reduce leftover food and use
reusable recyclable packaging for all its brands.
Social Score 3.0
As the biggest retailer in Thailand with more
than 200,000 employees, CPALL strives to
develop the skills of all the members of its staff.
The company also supports small- and mid-
sized entrepreneurs by sourcing their products
and co-developing new products.
•••
ESG Total Score = 2.8/3
Governance
Governance Score 2.5
As a member company of Thailand’s biggest
private sector conglomerate, CP Group, CPALL
has related-party transactions with other
members of the group. However, the company
makes sure that all intra-group business is
transacted transparently. CPALL’s corporate
governance rating is excellent (international
standard).
CPALL 7
 | RESEARCH

Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited DISCLAIMER

BUALUANG SECURITIES PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (BLS) is a subsidiary of BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (BBL). This document
is produced based upon sources believed to be reliable but their accuracy, completeness or correctness is not guaranteed. The statements or
expressions of opinion herein were arrived at after due and careful consideration to use as information for investment. Expressions of opinion contained
herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell
any securities. The use of any information shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.

BUALUANG SECURITIES PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED MAY BE IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SECURITIES IN THIS REPORT. “Opinions,
projections and other information contained in this report are based upon sources believed to be accurate including the draft prospectus, but no
responsibility is accepted for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited may from
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should carefully read details in the prospectus before making investment decision.

BUALUANG SECURITIES PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED MAY ACT AS MARKET MAKER AND ISSUER OF DWs, AND ISSUER OF STRUCTURED
NOTES ON THESE SECURITIES. The company may prepare the research reports on those underlying securities. Investors should carefully read the
details of the derivative warrants and structured notes in the prospectus before making investment decisions.

ADVANC AMATA AOT BDMS BH CBG CENTEL CPALL GLOBAL GPSC IRPC KBANK KCE KTC MINT
PTG PTT PTTEP PTTGC SCB SPRC TOP WHA ESSO STA BGRIM GULF MTC AWC CRC
CPF CPN HANA HMPRO IVL OSP SAWAD BANPU BCH BTS CK SCC STEC TISCO TU
INTUCH RATCH VGI SCGP TQM COM7 DOHOME JMT CHG TMB BAM BCP AP KTB KKP
OR BEM GUNKUL EA SPALI RBF STGT MEGA JMART BEC SYNEX BLA KEX RCL SINGER
STARK TIDLOR FORTH TIPH AAV DELTA BCPG SABUY THG CKP

BUALUANG SECURITIES PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED IS OR MAY BE AN UNDERWRITER/CO-UNDERWRITER/JOINT LEAD IN RESPECT OF

THE INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING (IPO) OF SECURITIES.

Lead underwriter/
Financial Advisor Underwriter/
Co-underwriter
MEB

CG Rating

Score Range Score Range Description

90 – 100 Excellent
80 – 89 Very Good
70 – 79 Good
60 – 69 Satisfactory
50 – 59 Pass
Below 50 No logo given N/A

Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
under Thai Institute of Directors
• companies that have declared their intention to join CAC, and
• companies certified by CAC.

••• CPALL 8
 | RESEARCH

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE REPORT DISCLAIMER

This research report was prepared by Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited and refers to research prepared by Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley
does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or completeness of its research reports. Morgan Stanley reserves copyright and other proprietary rights in
the material reproduced in this report. Morgan Stanley is under no obligation to inform Bualuang Securities or you if the views or information referred to
or reproduced in this research report change.

Corporate Governance Report disclaimer

The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of
the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The IOD survey is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of
Thailand and the Market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result , therefore, is
from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be
changed after that date. Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited neither confirms nor certifies the accuracy of such survey results.

“Disclaimer: The disclosure of the Anti-Corruption Progress Indicators of a listed company on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, which is assessed by the
relevant institution as disclosed by the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission, is made in order to comply with the policy and sustainable
development plan for the listed companies. The relevant institution made this assessment based on the information received from the listed company, as
stipulated in the form for the assessment of Anti-corruption which refers to the Annual Registration Statement (Form 56-1), Annual Report (Form 56-2),
or other relevant documents or reports of such listed company. The assessment result is therefore made from the perspective of a third party. It is not an
assessment of operation and is not based on any inside information. Since this assessment is only the assessment result as of the date appearing in the
assessment result, it may be changed after that date or when there is any change to the relevant information. Nevertheless, Bualuang Securities Public
Company Limited neither confirms, verifies, nor certifies the accuracy and completeness of the assessment result.”

BUALUANG RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12
months.
HOLD: Expected total returns of between -15% and +15% over the next 12
months.
SELL: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next 12
months.
TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next
3 months.
OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12
months.
UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12
months.

••• CPALL 9
 | RESEARCH

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••• CPALL 10