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2 มีนาคม 2566
จาก 1) อั ต ราส่ ว นการแลกหุ้ นที่ 1 หุ้ น DTAC เท่ า กั บ 6.13444 หุ้ น TRUE
N/A -
(บริษัทใหม่) หรือ 1 หุ้น TRUEE (หุ้น TRUE เดิม) เท่ากับ 0.60018 หุ้น TRUE /
(บริ ษั ท ใหม่ ) ที่ ร าคาพาร์ 2 บาท (DTAC) และราคาพาร์ 4 บาท (ส าหรั บ ทั้ ง
TRUEE และบริ ษั ท ใหม่ ) 2) ทุ น ที่ ช าระแล้ ว ของ DTAC (2,367.81 ล้ า นหุ้ น )
TRUEE (33,368.20 ล้ านหุ้ น) และ TRUE (บริษั ทใหม่ ) (34,552.12 ล้ านหุ้ น)
3) ราคาปิ ด ของ DTAC (52.25 บาท) และ TRUEE (5.10 บาท) ณ วั น ที่ 17
ก.พ. ที่ ผ่ านมา ซึ่ งเป็ นวั นที่ ท าการซื้ อขายวั นสุ ดท้ าย และ 4) มู ลค่ าตลาดของ
TRUE (บริษั ทใหม่ ) อยู่ ที่ 2.94 แสนล้ านบาท ถ้ าอิ งจากราคาปิ ดของ TRUEE
และ DTAC ณ วั น ที่ 17 ก.พ. ซึ่ งรวมมู ลค่ าตลาดของ TRUEE (1.7 แสนล้ าน
บาท) และ DTAC (1.24 แสนล้านบาท)
ราคาเป้ าหมาย ณ สิ้ นปี 2566 ของบริษัทใหม่อยู่ ที่ 10.40 บาท (ซึ่ งรวมมู ลค่ า
synergy ที่ 0.94 บาท/หุ้นเข้ามาแล้ว)
หากไม่รวมมูลค่า synergy ที่เกิดจากการควบรวมบริษัท เราประเมินมูลค่า DCF
ได้ ที่ 47.82 (ส าหรับ DTAC) และ 5.43 บาท (ส าหรับ TRUEE) ส่ งผลให้ ราคา
เป้ าหมาย ณ สิ้ นปี 2566 ของ TRUE (บริษั ทใหม่ ) อยู่ ที่ 9.46 บาท เราเชื่ อว่ า
ราคาดั งกล่ าวเป็ นไปในเชิ งอนุ รักษ์ นิ ยมมากที่ สุ ดส าหรับมู ลค่ าของบริษั ทใหม่
เนื่องจากยังคงไม่รวมมูลค่า synergy ที่คาดว่าจะเริม ่ รับรูต
้ ั้งแต่ปีที่สองหลังการ
ควบรวมบริษัท ภายใต้สมมติ ฐานกรณี ปกติ สาหรับการประเมินมูลค่า synergy
ของเราได้แก่ งบลงทุนของ TRUE (บริษัทใหม่) ลดลงอีก 15% เทียบกับช่วงที่ไม่
มี synergy และสั ดส่ วนค่ าใช้ จ่ ายในการขายและบริหารต่ อยอดขายลดลงจาก
18.2% เหลื อ 17.1% เราประเมิ น มู ล ค่ า synergy โดยวิ ธี DCF ได้ เท่ ากั บ 3.24
หมื่ นล้ านบาท (หรือคิ ดเป็ น 3.12 พั นล้ านบาท/ปี) หรือคิ ดเป็ น 0.94 บาท/หุ้ น
TRUE (บริษั ทใหม่ ) แต่ ไม่ ว่ าอย่ างไรก็ ตาม ถ้ าอ้ างอิ งจากสมมติ ฐานกรณี ที่ ดี
ที่สุดของเราสาหรับการประเมินมูลค่า synergy โดยงบลงทุนของ TRUE (บริษัท
ใหม่ ) ลดลงอี ก 24% และสั ด ส่ วนค่ าใช้ จ่ ายในการขายและบริหารต่ อยอดขาย
ลดลงจาก 18.2% เหลื อ 13.1% (ใกล้ เคี ย งกั บ ของ ADVANC ที่ 12.1%) เรา ประสิทธิ์ สุจิรวรกุล
ค านวณมู ลค่ า synergy ด้ วยวิ ธี DCF ได้ เท่ ากั บ 1.24 แสนล้ านบาท (หรือคิ ด นักวิเคราะห์การลงทุนปัจจัยพื้ นฐานด้านหลักทรัพย์
เป็น 1.19 หมื่นล้านบาท/ปี) หรือคิดเป็น 3.6 บาท/หุ้น TRUE (บริษัทใหม่) เราใช้ prasit@bualuang.co.th
สมมติฐานว่ามูลค่า synergy จะมาจากในฝั่งของต้นทุนที่ลดลงเท่านั้น แต่ยังคง +66 2 618 1342
ไม่ได้รวมในฝั่งของรายได้ที่จะเพิ่ มขึ้นด้วย
Please see final page for additional important disclosures. Bualuang Securities Public Company
See disclaimer at the end of report Limited (“BLS”) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. BLS research is prepared by
research analysts who are not registered in the USA. BLS research is distributed in the USA
pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
| RESEARCH
••• TRUE 2
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Net income (1,152) 1,421 2,990 4,055 4,562 (Debt + Interest) / EBITDA
7
Depreciation and amortization 62,712 72,787 74,286 75,449 76,268
6
Change in working capital 19,707 9,539 2,197 2,081 1,546
5
FX, non-cash adjustment & others (7,998) (9,377) (4,441) (4,656) (5,053)
4
Cash flows from operating activities 73,269 74,370 75,033 76,929 77,323
3
Capex (Invest)/Divest (46,494) (44,145) (44,145) (36,515) (36,515)
2
Others (23,857) (19,680) (2,411) (2,037) (2,603)
1
Cash flows from investing activities (70,352) (63,825) (46,556) (38,553) (39,118)
0
Debt financing (repayment) 21,343 11,353 (3,176) (8,854) 3,340
23E 24E 25E 26E 27E
Equity financing 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277
Dividend payment 0 (806) (2,843) (5,981) (8,110) Dividend payout
Others (23,857) (19,680) (2,411) (2,037) (2,603)
Cash flows from financing activities 32,621 21,824 5,258 (3,558) 6,508 Bt/Shr Dividend (Bt) Payout ratio (%) %
Net change in cash 35,538 32,368 33,735 34,819 44,712
0.3 0.26 250.0
Free cash flow (Btm) 26,775 30,225 30,888 40,414 40,808 0.23 200.0
0.3
FCF per share (Bt) 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.17 150.0
0.2
100.0
Key assumptions 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 0.2
0.08 50.0
Net adds (mn) - TRUE Mobile+DTAC 1.43 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 0.1 0.0
Cum. subs (mn) - TRUE Mobile+DTAC 55.9 56.9 57.8 58.7 59.6 0.1 0.02 -50.0
Blended ARPU (Bt/sub/mth) - TRUE+DTAC 207 205 204 203 202 0.0 -100.0
Blended ARPU (Bt/sub/mth) - broadband 466 471 476 480 485 23E 24E 25E 26E 27E
Blended ARPU (Bt/sub/mth) - TRUE Visions 248 246 243 241 238
••• TRUE 3
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Company profile
True Corporation Plc (TRUE) is the only fully integrated telecoms operator in Thailand. It has three main businesses—online (broadband Internet),
wireless via TRUE Move and TRUE Move-H, and pay-TV via TRUE Visions. Its fixed-line voice concession with TOT ended in Oct 2017. TRUE
Mobile’s subscribership totaled 33.8m at end-4Q22. Real Future Co. Ltd. (a subsidiary) acquired its 2,100MHz license from the NBTC in 4Q12 at a
price of Bt13,500m. True Move-H Universal Communication Co. Ltd., TRUE Mobile’s subsidiary, won an 1800MHz license (Bt39,792m) in 4Q15 and a
900MHz license (Bt76,298m) from the NBTC in 1Q16. On Mar 1, 2023, DTAC and TRUE have completed their amalgamation process by receiving
their commercial license from the Department of Business Development, Ministry of Commerce under the name “True Corporation Public Company
Limited”.
••• TRUE 4
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2) Staff, marketing and distribution costs, procurement costs MergeCo's SG&A/sales After factoring in synergies
ratio of 18.2% in 2023 from amalgamation SG&A expense saving
Total SG&A/sales (%) 18.2% 17.1% 2,489
2) Staff, marketing and distribution costs, procurement costs MergeCo's SG&A/sales After factoring in synergies SG&A expense saving
ratio of 18.2% in 2023 from amalgamation
Total SG&A/sales (%) 18.2% 13.1% 10,986
Base-case scenario
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Synergy value/annum (Btm) 3,120 3,120 3,120 3,120 3,120 3,120 3,120 3,120 3,120 3,120 3,120 3,120 3,120 3,120 3,120
DCF of synergy value (Btm) over 15 years 32,385
Estimated total synergy value (Btm) 46,800 three times of MYR2bn of Telenor's Malaysian deal
Synergy value/annum (Btm) 3,120
Best-case scenario
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Synergy value/annum (Btm) 11,986 11,986 11,986 11,986 11,986 11,986 11,986 11,986 11,986 11,986 11,986 11,986 11,986 11,986 11,986
DCF of synergy value (Btm) over 15 years 124,408
••• TRUE 5
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Figure 2: Implied value of NewCo using closing prices of TRUEE and DTAC on Feb 17, 2023
Figure 3: Net profit (loss) forecasts of TRUEE, DTAC and TRUE (NewCo) during 2023-33
(Btm) 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E
TRUEE (old) (4,377) (1,859) (345) 655 1,127 1,276 1,443 1,669 1,885 2,103 2,486
DTAC 3,225 3,280 3,336 3,399 3,435 3,509 3,540 3,563 3,575 3,648 3,710
TRUE (NewCo) (1,152) 1,421 2,990 4,055 4,562 4,785 4,982 5,232 5,460 5,750 6,196
Figure 4: Mobile revenue and subscriber shares—pre-merger Figure 5: Mobile revenue and subscriber shares—post-merger
46.40%
50% 56%
45.57% 54.43%
45% 53.60%
54%
40% 33.47%
35% 31.53% 52%
30% 50%
22.07%
25% 20.96%
48%
20% 46.40%
45.57%
15% 46%
10%
44%
5%
0% 42%
ADVANC DTAC True Move-H
40%
Mobile revenue market share - Mobile subscriber market share -
post-merger post-merger
2022 mobile revenue market share - pre-merger
••• TRUE 6
| RESEARCH
Regional Comparisons
Bloomberg Price Market Cap PER (x) EPS Growth (%) PBV (x) ROE (%) Div Yield (%)
(US$
Code (local curr.) equivalent) 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E
Advanced Info Service ADVANC TB THB202.00 17,314 22.8 22.0 -3.4 1.3 6.7 6.5 30.1 30.0 3.9 4.0
Total Access Communication DTAC TB THB52.25 3,516 38.4 37.7 -7.1 3.4 7.2 8.0 17.9 20.1 4.0 4.1
Advanced Information Technology AIT TB THB6.00 230 16.3 15.4 -42.6 25.5 2.0 1.9 17.7 17.7 6.0 6.3
Interlink Telecom ITEL TB THB3.58 141 22.2 15.7 -41.2 24.4 1.2 1.1 7.4 8.8 0.0 0.0
MFEC MFEC TB THB7.95 101 n.m. n.m. -8.6 n.m. 10.8 23.0 -175.6 -370.5 -13.6 -15.4
Shin Corporation INTUCH TB THB70.25 6,492 21.1 20.3 -2.0 1.4 6.1 5.9 28.2 28.0 4.0 4.2
Jasmine Broadband Internet
Infrastructure Fund JASIF TB THB8.20 1,890 7.2 7.2 -54.5 148.3 0.7 0.7 10.5 10.3 11.4 11.5
Thaicom THCOM TB THB15.60 493 71.0 53.6 -70.6 470.1 1.7 1.7 2.3 3.2 3.2 3.0
True Corporation TRUEE TB THB5.10 4,836 n.m. 124.0 n.m. n.m. 1.9 1.7 -1.5 1.5 0.5 1.6
Simple average 28.4 37.0 -28.8 96.3 4.3 5.6 -7.0 -27.9 2.1 2.1
••• TRUE 7
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True Group places great importance on being a IOD ratings = Five Stars or "Excellent". True
part of the global community and on being a Group conducts its businesses with respect for
good corporate citizen to create a better quality the rights of its stakeholders and taking into
of life for all. On October 1, 2015, it became a account their interests to ensure those
member of the UN Global Compact and is stakeholders are treated equitably and fairly and
committed to the UN Ten Principles that cover their rights are protected. The Company
four areas of responsibilities: human rights, ensures that dealings with all stakeholders are
labor, environment and anti-corruption. It conducted with transparency and without
places emphasis on labor practices and respect unethical transfers of benefits. The BOD has
for human rights to ensure fair, equitable, and enacted the “Code of Conduct” that are in line
with the corporate culture of 4C’s which consists
non-discriminatory treatment with regard to
of Caring, Credible, Creative, and Courageous.
employment, remuneration, promotion, and
and “Corporate Governance Policy” as practical
professional training and development, without
guidelines for Directors, management and every
distinction on the basis of sex, age, educational True Group employee. It has also announced
institution, race, and religion. It also supports the “Anti-Corruption Measures” for its
employment of disadvantaged groups. employees and suppliers.
••• TRUE 8
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BUALUANG SECURITIES PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED MAY BE IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SECURITIES IN THIS REPORT. “Opinions,
projections and other information contained in this report are based upon sources believed to be accurate including the draft prospectus, but no
responsibility is accepted for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited may from
time to time perform investment, advisory or other services for companies mentioned in this report, as well as dealing (as principal or otherwise) in, or
otherwise being interested in, any securities mentioned herein, This report does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any securities”. Investors
should carefully read details in the prospectus before making investment decision.
BUALUANG SECURITIES PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED MAY ACT AS MARKET MAKER AND ISSUER OF DWs, AND ISSUER OF STRUCTURED
NOTES ON THESE SECURITIES. The company may prepare the research reports on those underlying securities. Investors should carefully read the
details of the derivative warrants and structured notes in the prospectus before making investment decisions.
ADVANC AMATA AOT BDMS BH CBG CENTEL CPALL GLOBAL GPSC IRPC KBANK KCE KTC MINT
PTG PTT PTTEP PTTGC SCB SPRC TOP WHA ESSO STA BGRIM GULF MTC AWC CRC
CPF CPN HANA HMPRO IVL OSP SAWAD BANPU BCH BTS CK SCC STEC TISCO TU
INTUCH RATCH VGI SCGP TQM COM7 DOHOME JMT CHG TMB BAM BCP AP KTB KKP
OR BEM GUNKUL EA SPALI RBF STGT MEGA JMART BEC SYNEX BLA KEX RCL SINGER
STARK TIDLOR FORTH TIPH AAV DELTA BCPG SABUY THG CKP
Lead underwriter/
Financial Advisor Underwriter/
Co-underwriter
MEB
CG Rating
Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
under Thai Institute of Directors
• companies that have declared their intention to join CAC, and
• companies certified by CAC.
••• TRUE 9
| RESEARCH
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does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or completeness of its research reports. Morgan Stanley reserves copyright and other proprietary rights in
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“Disclaimer: The disclosure of the Anti-Corruption Progress Indicators of a listed company on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, which is assessed by the
relevant institution as disclosed by the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission, is made in order to comply with the policy and sustainable
development plan for the listed companies. The relevant institution made this assessment based on the information received from the listed company, as
stipulated in the form for the assessment of Anti-corruption which refers to the Annual Registration Statement (Form 56-1), Annual Report (Form 56-2),
or other relevant documents or reports of such listed company. The assessment result is therefore made from the perspective of a third party. It is not an
assessment of operation and is not based on any inside information. Since this assessment is only the assessment result as of the date appearing in the
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BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
months. expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
HOLD: Expected total returns of between -15% and +15% over the next 12 NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
months. expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12
SELL: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months.
months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12
3 months. months.
••• TRUE 10
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