RESULTS

27 กุมภาพั นธ์ 2566

Star Petroleum Refining

SPRC TB / SPRC.BK

Sector: Energy NEUTRAL

กาไรไตรมาส 4/65 สูงกว่าคาด; คาแนะนาพื้ นฐาน: ซื้อเก็งกาไร
แนวโน้มไตรมาส 1/66 ปรับตัวดีข้ ึน เป้าหมายพื้ นฐาน: 12.50 บาท
ราคา (23/2/66): 10.90 บาท
สูงกว่าทุกคาดการณ์ Key statistics
Market cap Bt47.3bn USD1.4bn
SPRC รายงานกาไรสุทธิไตรมาส 4/65 ที่ 260 ล้านบาท ลดลง 86% YoY แต่ 12-mth price range Bt8.2/Bt13.5
พลิ ก กลั บจากขาดทุ น สุ ท ธิในไตรมาส 3/65 หากไม่รวมขาดทุ นจากสิน ค้ าคง 12-mth avg daily volume Bt303m USD8.7m
# of shares (m) 4,336
คลัง 1,289 ล้านบาท, กาไรจากอัตราแลกเปลี่ยน 642 ล้านบาท, และกาไรจาก Est. free float (%) 39.4
ตราสารอนุ พั น ธ์ 583 ล้ า นบาท ก าไรหลั ก จะอยู่ ที่ 195 ล้ านบาท ลดลง 77% Foreign limit (%) 100.0

YoY และ 82% QoQ ซึ่งสูงกว่าที่เราคาด (และสูงกว่าที่ตลาดคาด) เนื่องจาก Share price perf. (%) 1M 3M 12M

กาไรพิ เศษมากกว่าคาด SPRC ประกาศจ่ายเงินปันผลครึ่งหลังของปี 2565 ที่

Relative to SET (1.5) (8.7) 27.3
Absolute (4.4) (7.6) 24.6
0.15 บาทต่อหุ้น ซึ่งคิดเป็นอัตราตอบแทนจากเงินปันผลขั้นต้นที่ 1.4% (จะขึ้น
เครื่องหมาย XD ในวันที่ 9 มี.ค. และจ่ายปันผลในวันที่ 3 พ.ค.) Financial summary
FY Ended 31 Dec 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
Revenues (Btm) 285,264 172,218 172,218 146,992
ประเด็นสาคัญจากผลประกอบการ Net profit (Btm) 7,674 3,216 3,244 2,743
EPS (Bt) 1.77 0.74 0.75 0.63
ปั จ จั ย ส าคั ญ ที่ ก ดดั น ก าไรหลั ก ได้ แ ก่ 1) ค่ า การกลั่ น ที่ ป รั บ ตั ว ลดลง, 2) EPS grow th (%) +48.2% -58.1% +1% -15.4%

ค่ าใช้ จ่ายในการขายและบริห ารที่ เพิ่ มขึ้ น โดยอั ต ราส่ วนค่ าใช้ จ่ายในการขาย
Core profit (Btm) 9,612 3,216 3,244 2,743
Core EPS (Bt) 2.22 0.74 0.75 0.63
และบริหารต่อยอดขายเพิ่ มขึ้นมาอยู่ที่ 0.7% จาก 0.1% ในไตรมาส 4/64 และ Core EPS grow th (%) +50,277% -67% +1% -15.4%
PER (x) 6.2 14.7 14.6 17.2
0.4% ในไตรมาส 3/65, และ 3) ดอกเบี้ ย จ่ า ยสู ง ขึ้ น อั ต ราการใช้ ก าลั ง การ PBV (x) 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1
กลั่นของ SPRC ในไตรมาส 4/65 อยู่ที่ 1.63 แสนบาร์เรลต่อวัน เพิ่ มขึ้น 17% Dividend (Bt) 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.3
Dividend yield (%) 10.0 3.7 3.8 3.2
YoY และ 5% QoQ (อุ ป สงค์ ที่ ป รั บ ตั ว ดี ข้ ึ น ) ในขณะที่ ค่ า การกลั่ น อยู่ ที่ 5.4 ROE (%) 21.0 8.2 7.9 6.5

เหรี ย ญ สหรั ฐ ต่ อ บาร์ เ รล ลดลง 10% ทั้ ง YoY และ QoQ (ส่ ว นต่ า งราคา
CG / CAC Anti-Corruption Certification
ผลิ ต ภั ณ ฑ์ ที่ ล ดลงและสั ด ส่ วนผลิ ต ภั ณ ฑ์ ที่ มีมู ล ค่ าสู ง ลดลงเนื่ อ งจากการปิ ด
ซ่อมบารุงหน่วยกลั่นบางหน่วยนอกแผน) Yes
/

แนวโน้ม
ก าไรหลั ก ไตรมาส 1/66 ของ SPRC มี แนวโน้ มเพิ่ มขึ้ น YoY และ QoQ หนุ น
โดยอัตราการใช้กาลังการกลั่นที่เพิ่ มขึ้นและค่าการกลั่นที่สูงขึ้น เราคาดว่าค่า
การกลั่นจะเพิ่ มขึ้นต่อเนื่อง YoY และ QoQ ในไตรมาส 1/66 หนุนโดยอุปสงค์
ผลิตภัณฑ์น้ามันสาเร็จรูปในวงกว้างที่ปรับตัวดีข้ ึน อุปสงค์น้ามันดีเซล, น้ามัน
เครื่องบิน , และน้ามันเตาที่ มีส่วนผสมกามะถั นในระดั บสูงที่ สูง ขึ้น ตามฤดูกาล
และอุ ป ทานที่ ตึ ง ตั ว ต้ น ทุ น น้ า มั น ดิ บ มี แ นวโน้ ม ที่ จ ะลดลง QoQ ในไตรมาส
1/66 ตามทิศทางของราคาน้ามันดิบ

สิ่งที่เปลี่ยนแปลง
เรายังคงประมาณการกาไรสุทธิปี 2566 ของเราที่ 3,216 ล้านบาทไว้ดังเดิ ม
ไม่เปลี่ยนแปลง

คาแนะนา
ความคาดหวังต่ อการเติบโตของกาไรหลักต่ อเนื่องไปในไตรมาส 1/66 น่ าจะ
เป็นปัจจัยหนุนราคาหุ้นได้ต่อไป นอกจากนี้มูลค่าหุ้นปัจจุบันยังคงอยู่ในระดับที่
น่ าสนใจ โดยซื้ อ ขายที่ PBV ณ สิ้ น ปี 2566 ที่ 1.2 เท่ า (ต่ ากว่าค่ าเฉลี่ ย ระยะ
สุพพตา ศรีสุข
ยาวอยู่ 0.6 ส่วนเบี่ยงเบนมาตรฐาน)
นักวิเคราะห์การลงทุนปัจจัยพื้ นฐานด้านหลักทรัพย์
suppata@bualuang.co.th
+66 2 618 1343

Please see final page for additional important disclosures. Bualuang Securities Public Company
See disclaimer at the end of report Limited (“BLS”) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. BLS research is prepared by
research analysts who are not registered in the USA. BLS research is distributed in the USA
pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
 | RESEARCH

SPRC: Financial Tables – Year

PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
Revenue growth and asset turnover
Revenue 172,484 285,264 172,218 172,218 146,992
Cost of sales and services (171,690) (271,989) (167,184) (167,184) (142,772) % Revenue growth (%) (LHS) x
Gross profit 794 13,276 5,034 5,034 4,220 Asset turnover (x) (RHS)
SG&A (749) (1,396) (1,033) (1,033) (882) 80 5.0
EBIT 46 11,880 4,001 4,001 3,338 60 4.0
Interest expense (212) (316) (125) (97) (68) 40
20 3.0
Other income/exp. 62 63 144 151 159
EBT (105) 11,626 4,020 4,056 3,429 0 2.0
Corporate tax (1,166) (1,921) (804) (811) (686) (20)
(40) 1.0
After-tax net profit (loss) (1,271) 9,706 3,216 3,244 2,743
Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 (60) 0.0
Equity earnings from affiliates 0 0 0 0 0 19 20 21 22 23E 24E 25E
Extra items 6,450 (2,032) 0 0 0
Net profit (loss) 5,179 7,674 3,216 3,244 2,743 A/C receivable & A/C payable days
Reported EPS 1.09 1.77 0.74 0.75 0.63
days AR / Sales (days)
Core net profit 19 9,612 3,216 3,244 2,743 AP / Cost of Goods (days)
Core EPS 0.00 2.22 0.74 0.75 0.63 40
EBITDA 2,690 14,482 6,809 6,833 6,194
KEY RATIOS 30
Revenue growth (%) 32.5 65.4 (39.6) 0.0 (14.6) 20
Gross margin (%) 0.5 4.7 2.9 2.9 2.9
EBITDA margin (%) 1.6 5.1 4.0 4.0 4.2 10
Operating margin (%) 0.0 4.2 2.3 2.3 2.3
Net margin (%) 3.0 2.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 0
Core profit margin (%) 0.0 3.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 19 20 21 22 23E 24E 25E
ROA (%) 9.8 12.6 5.3 5.6 4.8
ROCE (%) 13.1 16.9 6.7 6.8 5.7 Profit margins
Asset turnover (x) 3.3 4.7 2.8 3.0 2.6 Gross margin (%)
Current ratio (x) 1.6 1.6 2.9 3.1 3.5 % EBIT margin (%)
Gearing ratio (x) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 6
Interest coverage (x) 0.2 37.5 32.0 41.4 48.8
4
BALANCE SHEET (Btm)
2
Cash & Equivalent 2,945 76 11,875 14,391 18,962
Accounts receivable 13,219 14,328 8,650 8,650 7,383 0
Inventory 16,486 23,762 14,606 14,606 12,473 (2)
PP&E-net 24,219 22,735 20,346 17,929 15,485
(4)
Other assets 1,776 2,295 2,272 2,357 2,446
58,726 63,288 57,845 58,034 56,856
19 20 21 22 23E 24E 25E
Total assets
Accounts payable 13,961 12,780 7,856 7,856 6,709 Capital expenditure
ST debts & current portion 4,680 9,731 2,942 2,942 2,942
Long-term debt 3,374 0 4,718 3,339 1,959 Bt,bn Capex (Bt,bn) %
Other liabilities 950 677 711 747 784 Capex / Net PPE (%)
3.0 12
Total liabilities 24,355 24,581 17,690 16,419 14,006
Paid-up capital 30,004 30,004 30,005 30,005 30,005 2.5 10
Share premium 978 978 978 978 978 2.0 8
Retained earnings 7,596 10,333 11,781 13,241 14,475 1.5 6
Shareholders equity 34,371 38,707 40,155 41,615 42,850
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 1.0 4
Total Liab.&Shareholders' equity 58,726 63,288 57,845 58,034 56,856 0.5 2
CASH FLOW (Btm) 0.0 0
Net income 6,346 11,159 4,020 4,056 3,429 19 20 21 22 23E 24E 25E
Depreciation and amortization 2,644 2,603 2,808 2,832 2,856
Change in working capital (4,907) (11,251) (9,910) 0 (2,253) Debt serviceability
FX, non-cash adjustment & others (301) (2,354) 18,424 (707) 3,929 (ST debt + Interest) / EBITDA
3,782 156 15,342 6,180 7,961 x
Cash flows from operating activities (Debt + Interest) / EBITDA
Capex (Invest)/Divest (103) (278) (315) (415) (412) 10.0
Others 0 0 (81) (85) (89) 8.0
Cash flows from investing activities (103) (278) (395) (500) (501) 6.0
Debt financing (repayment) (2,844) 1,639 (1,380) (1,380) (1,380) 4.0
Equity financing 0 0 1 0 0 2.0
Dividend payment 0 (4,936) (1,769) (1,784) (1,509) 0.0
Others 0 0 (81) (85) (89) -2.0
Cash flows from financing activities (2,844) (3,298) (3,147) (3,164) (2,888) -4.0
Net change in cash 835 (3,421) 11,799 2,516 4,571 19 20 21 22 23E 24E 25E
Free cash flow (Btm) 3,679 (123) 15,028 5,765 7,549
FCF per share (Bt) 0.8 (0.0) 3.5 1.3 1.7 Dividend payout
Key assumptions 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E Dividend (Bt) %
Refinery throughput (KBD)
Bt/Shr Payout ratio (%)
135.1 155.8 169.8 169.8 142.3
Market GRM ($/bbl) 3.7 10.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 1.2 1.11 80
1.0 60
0.8 40
0.6 0.41 0.41 0.35 20
0.4 0.18 0.18 0
0.2 0.00 (20)
0.0 (40)
19 20 21 22 23E 24E 25E

••• SPRC 2
 | RESEARCH

SPRC: Financial Tables – Quarter

QUARTERLY PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 Revenue trend
Revenue 52,803 65,404 78,008 76,146 65,706
Bt,bn Revenue (Bt,bn) (LHS) %
Cost of sales and services (51,739) (62,789) (70,037) (74,437) (64,726)
Revenue growth (% YoY)
Gross profit 1,064 2,615 7,972 1,709 981 100 100
SG&A (24) (287) (318) (333) (457)
80 80
EBIT 1,040 2,328 7,653 1,375 524
Interest expense (51) (41) (58) (77) (141) 60 60
Other income/exp. 20 16 14 16 17 40 40
EBT 1,008 2,303 7,610 1,315 399
20 20
Corporate tax (414) (1,321) (1,782) 1,257 (75)
After-tax net profit (loss) 593 982 5,828 2,571 325 0 0
Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 2Q21 4Q21 2Q22 4Q22
Equity earnings from affiliates 0 0 0 0 0
Revenue trend (accumulated)
Extra items 1,261 4,303 1,328 (7,598) (65)
Net profit (loss) 1,855 5,284 7,156 (5,027) 260 Bt,bn Accum. Revenue (Bt,bn)
%
Reported EPS 0.43 1.22 1.65 (1.16) 0.06 % of FY Revenue
300
Fully diluted EPS 0.39 1.11 1.50 (1.05) 0.05 100 100 120
250
Core net profit 865 2,167 6,161 1,089 195 77 100
200 69
Core EPS 0.18 0.45 1.29 0.23 0.04 80
EBITDA 1,667 2,944 8,289 2,017 1,232 150 46 50 60
100 23 40
KEY RATIOS
50 20
Gross margin (%) 2.0 4.0 10.2 2.2 1.5
0 0
EBITDA margin (%) 3.2 4.5 10.6 2.6 1.9
2Q21 4Q21 2Q22 4Q22
Operating margin (%) 2.0 3.6 9.8 1.8 0.8
Net margin (%) 3.5 8.1 9.2 (6.6) 0.4 Net profit trend (accumulated)
Core profit margin (%) 1.6 3.3 7.9 1.4 0.3
BV (Bt) 7.9 9.1 11.2 9.8 8.9 Bt,m Accum. Profit (Bt,m) %
ROE (%) 22.0 57.2 65.1 (44.2) 2.6
ROA (%) 12.9 32.0 36.6 (25.4) 1.5 14,000 97
100 120
12,000 92
Current ratio (x) 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.6 100
10,000 69
Gearing ratio (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 56 80
8,000 54
Interest coverage (x) 20.2 57.4 132.6 17.9 3.7 6,000 60
4,000 40
QUARTERLY BALANCE SHEET (Btm) 20
2,000
Cash & Equivalent 2,945 1,437 3,447 68 76 0 0
Accounts receivable 13,219 21,739 23,719 18,915 14,328 2Q21 4Q21 2Q22 4Q22
Inventory 16,486 25,887 30,407 29,798 23,762
PP&E-net 24,219 23,540 24,337 25,499 22,735
Other assets 1,776 840 893 1,004 2,295 Gross profit margin
Total assets 58,726 73,552 82,939 75,430 63,288 % FY GPM (%) Gross margin (%)
Accounts payable 13,961 23,632 23,210 20,963 12,780
12
ST debts & current portion 0 0 0 0 0
Long-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 9
Other liabilities 950 1,188 666 678 677 6
Total liabilities 24,355 34,028 34,474 32,886 24,581
Paid-up capital 30,004 30,004 30,004 30,004 30,004 3
Share premium 978 978 978 978 978 0
Retained earnings 7,596 12,880 19,262 10,073 10,333
(3)
Shareholders equity 34,371 39,524 48,465 42,544 38,707
2Q21 4Q21 2Q22 4Q22
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0
Total Liab.&Shareholders' equity 58,726 73,552 82,939 75,430 63,288 EBIT margin
Key operating data 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 FY EBIT margin (%)
%
Market GRM (US$/bbl) 6.0 8.5 18.9 6.0 5.4 EBIT margin (%)
Refinery throughput (barrel/day) 139,200 150,200 156,000 155,400 163,200 12
9
6
3
0
(3)
2Q21 4Q21 2Q22 4Q22

Company profile
Star Petroleum Refining Plc (SPRC) is a leading oil refinery and petroleum product producer in Thailand and the Asia-Pacific region. It is Thailand’s
fifth-largest refinery with a total capacity of 175,000 barrels per day. SPRC’s refinery is complex, so has a wide product slate, including LPG, polymer-
grade propylene (PGP), gasoline, jet oil, diesel, and fuel oil.

••• SPRC 3
 | RESEARCH

Figure 1 : 4Q22 results

FY Ended 31 Dec (Btm) 4Q22 4Q21 YoY % 3Q22 QoQ % 2022 2021 YoY %

Income Statement
Revenue 65,706 52,803 24 76,146 (14) 285,264 172,484 65
Cost of sales and services (64,726) (51,739) 25 (74,437) (13) (271,989) (171,690) 58 • The YoY revenue growth was
EBITDA 1,232 1,667 (26) 2,017 (39) 14,482 2,690 438 driven by greater sales volume
SG&A (457) (24) 1,810 (333) 37 (1,396) (749) 86 and higher sales prices
EBIT 524 1,040 (50) 1,375 (62) 11,880 46 nm
Interest expense (141) (51) 175 (77) 84 (316) (212) 49
Other income/exp. 17 20 (13) 16 4 63 62 2 • The QoQ top-line contraction was
Equity earnings from affiliates 0 0 nm 0 nm 0 0 nm due to lower sales prices
Extra items (65) 1,261 nm (7,598) nm (2,032) 6,017 nm
EBT 399 1,008 (60) 1,315 (70) 11,626 (105) nm
Corporate tax (75) (414) (82) 1,257 nm (1,921) (1,166) 65 • Market GRM declined YoY and
Minority interest 0 0 nm 0 nm 0 0 nm QoQ
Net profit (loss) 260 1,855 (86) (5,027) nm 7,674 4,746 62
Reported EPS 0.06 0.43 (86) (1.16) nm 1.77 1.09 62
Core net profit 195 865 (77) 1,089 (82) 9,612 19 nm • Loss on inventories
Key ratios
Gross margin (%) 1.5 2.0 2.2 4.7 0.5 • Gains on FX, and derivatives
EBITDA margin (%) 1.9 3.2 2.6 5.1 1.6
EBIT margin (%) 0.8 2.0 1.8 4.2 0.0
SG&A / Revenue (%) 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 • The net profit was above our
Tax rate (%) 18.7 41.1 (95.6) 16.5 (1,115.8) estimate and that of the
Net margin (%) 0.4 3.5 (6.6) 2.7 2.8 consensus
Current ratio (x) 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6
Gearing ratio (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Interest coverage (x) 3.7 n.m. 17.9 37.5 0.2

Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalent 76 2,945 (97) 68 11
Total assets 63,288 58,726 8 75,430 (16)
ST debts & current portion 0 0 nm 0 nm
Long-term debt 0 0 nm 0 nm
Total liabilities 24,581 24,355 1 32,886 (25)
Retained earnings 10,333 7,596 36 10,073 3
Shareholders equity 38,707 34,371 13 42,544 (9)
Minority interests 0 0 nm 0 nm
BV (Bt) 8.9 7.9 13 9.8 (9)

Source: Bualuang Research estimates

••• SPRC 4
 | RESEARCH

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ADVANC AMATA AOT BDMS BH CBG CENTEL CPALL GLOBAL GPSC IRPC KBANK KCE KTC MINT
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THE INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING (IPO) OF SECURITIES.

Lead underwriter/
Financial Advisor Underwriter/
Co-underwriter
MEB

CG Rating

Score Range Score Range Description

90 – 100 Excellent
80 – 89 Very Good
70 – 79 Good
60 – 69 Satisfactory
50 – 59 Pass
Below 50 No logo given N/A

Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
under Thai Institute of Directors
• companies that have declared their intention to join CAC, and
• companies certified by CAC.

••• SPRC 5
 | RESEARCH

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Corporate Governance Report disclaimer

The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of
the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The IOD survey is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of
Thailand and the Market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public invest or. The result, therefore, is
from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be
changed after that date. Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited neither confirms nor certifies the accuracy of such survey results.

“Disclaimer: The disclosure of the Anti-Corruption Progress Indicators of a listed company on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, which is assessed by the
relevant institution as disclosed by the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission, is made in order to comply with the policy and sustainable
development plan for the listed companies. The relevant institution made this assessment based on the information received from the listed company, as
stipulated in the form for the assessment of Anti-corruption which refers to the Annual Registration Statement (Form 56-1), Annual Report (Form 56-2),
or other relevant documents or reports of such listed company. The assessment result is therefore made from the perspective of a third party. It is not an
assessment of operation and is not based on any inside information. Since this assessment is only the assessment result as of the date appearing in the
assessment result, it may be changed after that date or when there is any change to the relevant information. Nevertheless, Bualuang Securities Public
Company Limited neither confirms, verifies, nor certifies the accuracy and completeness of the assessment result.”

BUALUANG RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12
months.
HOLD: Expected total returns of between -15% and +15% over the next 12
months.
SELL: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next 12
months.
TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next
3 months.
OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12
months.
UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12
months.

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 | RESEARCH

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