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10 เมษายน 2566
ยกเลิกแพ็ กเก็จ 299 บาทและดันแพ็ กเก็จหลักไปเป็น 399 บาท โดย TRUE ได้
80 30000
60 Buy 250.00
93 20000
ท าต าม ADVANC ทั น ที ใน ช่ ว ง ป ล าย เดื อ น ม .ค . ห รื อ ต้ น เดื อ น ก .พ . ใน 40
20
240.00 10000
2.4% YoY แต่ลดลง 0.8% QoQ (ถ้าเทียบกับที่เพิ่ มขึ้น 1.3% YoY ในไตรมาส
4/65) โดยมีปัจจัยหนุนจากรายได้ธุรกิจเน็ตบ้านและรายได้ธุรกิจลูกค้าองค์กร ประสิทธิ์ สุจิรวรกุล
ที่ ไม่ ใช่ ส่ ว น ข อ ง ธุ ร กิ จ โท รศั พ ท์ เค ลื่ อ น ที่ เราค าด ราย ได้ บ ริ ก าร เฉ พ าะ นักวิเคราะห์การลงทุนปัจจัยพื้ นฐานด้านหลักทรัพย์
โทรศัพท์ เคลื่อนที่ ในไตรมาส 1/66 ที่ 2.91 หมื่นล้านบาท เพิ่ มขึ้น 0.9% YoY prasit@bualuang.co.th
แต่ลดลง 1.4% QoQ (เนื่องจากภาวะการแข่งขันธุรกิจโทรศัพท์เคลื่อนที่ที่ +66 2 618 1342
Please see final page for additional important disclosures. Bualuang Securities Public Company
See disclaimer at the end of report Limited (“BLS”) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. BLS research is prepared by
research analysts who are not registered in the USA. BLS research is distributed in the USA
pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
| RESEARCH
••• ADVANC 2
| RESEARCH
KEY RATIOS 50
Revenue growth (%) 4.9 2.3 11.7 5.3 3.0
Gross margin (%) 33.0 32.0 30.8 30.8 30.5
EBITDA margin (%) 50.4 48.4 44.7 43.6 42.9 0
Operating margin (%) 21.0 19.9 18.7 18.4 18.2 23E 24E 25E
Net margin (%) 14.8 14.0 12.7 12.5 12.5
14.6 13.9 12.8 12.4 12.5 Profit margins
Core profit margin (%)
ROA (%) 7.6 7.5 6.8 6.3 6.6 % Gross margin (%) EBIT margin (%)
ROCE (%) 11.9 12.0 10.3 9.5 10.3
Asset turnover (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 40
Current ratio (x) 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.1
1.7 1.5 2.3 2.0 1.8 30
Gearing ratio (x)
Interest coverage (x) 6.8 7.0 4.6 4.1 4.4 20
••• ADVANC 3
| RESEARCH
20
Key statistics 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22
Net additions (mn) 0.46 0.51 0.88 0.16 0.35 15
Cumulative subscribers (mn) 44.12 44.62 45.50 45.66 46.01 10
Blended ARPU (Bt/sub/mth) 224 216 215 212 213
Blended MOU (min/sub/mth) 92 88 87 82 82 5
Blended VOU (MB/data sub/mth) 24,900 26,600 28,000 29,600 31,500 0
Fixed BB subscribers (mn) 1.772 1.865 1.971 2.086 2.169 2Q21 4Q21 2Q22 4Q22
Company profile
Advanced Info Service Plc (ADVANC), Thailand’s biggest and most profitable mobile telecoms firm, used to operate a dual-band cellular network using
the 900MHz (17.5MHz x2) and 1800MHz (12.6MHz x2) bandwidths under concessions from two state-owned telecoms firms, TOT Corporation and
CAT Telecom. ADVANC’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Advanced Wireless Network Co., Ltd. (AWN), won a 2100MHz (15MHzx2) license (Bt14,625m) in
4Q12, an 1800MHz (15MHzx2) license (Bt40,986m) in 4Q15, a 900MHz (10MHzx2) license (Bt75,654m) in 2Q16, a 1800MHz (5MHzx2) license
(Bt12,511m) in 3Q18 and secured a 700MHz (10MHzx2) license (Bt17,584m) in 2Q19 from the NBTC. ADVANC successfully completed its acquisition
of CS Loxinfo Plc (CSL) in 2Q18 for a 98.96% stake. As of 4Q22, ADVANC had 46.01m subscribers—a 46% market share. In 4Q22, mobile revenue
represented 87% of service revenue, followed by fixed broadband revenue (8%) and other service revenues incl. CSL (5%).
••• ADVANC 4
| RESEARCH
1Q23E
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23E
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
Sources: Company data and Bualuang Research estimates Sources: Company data and Bualuang Research estimates
Figure 3: Mobile ARPU and net adds, quarterly Figure 4: Fixed broadband subscribers and ARPU, quarterly
2,500,000 700
258
246
1,330
254
255
259
252
237
242
618
224
223
232
234
212
216
225
573
215
600
239
250 558
213
610
212
94
676,700
300
571,800
1,202,600
2,169,200
45
1,090,400
1,255,500
456
1,772,000
2,269,200
1,000,000
1,037,600
1,431,900
1,336,900
1,865,100
1,535,900
2,085,900
-
1,971,400
1,668,900
937,000
1Q23E
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
100 200
500,000
(6) (78) 100
(500) (26)
(858) 50
(136)
- -
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23E
(1,000) -
Sources: Company data and Bualuang Research estimates Sources: Company data, Bualuang Research estimate
Figure 5: ADVANC’s EV/EBITDA band vs SD (next 12 months) Figure 6: ADVANC’s EV/EBITDA band and share price
x
500 15x
6 -1.0 SD = 5.82x
200
5x
-2.0 SD = 3.99x 150
4
100
2
50
0
0
YE03 YE05 YE07 YE09 YE11 YE13 YE15 YE17 YE19 YE21 YE23
YE03 YE05 YE07 YE09 YE11 YE13 YE15 YE17 YE19 YE21 YE23
••• ADVANC 5
| RESEARCH
Figure 7: GM for service and sales revenue, quarterly Figure 8: Key OPEX indicators, quarterly
1Q23E
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
0%
1Q23E
4Q18
1Q21
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
-10%
Sources: Company data and Bualuang Research estimates Sources: Company data and Bualuang Research estimates
Figure 9: ARPU breakdown, quarterly Figure 10: Minutes of usage (MOU) breakdown, quarterly
145
246 256 254 252 242 239 237 234 232
138
225 223 224 216 215 212 213 212 200
122
118
150
113
112
174 182 179 173 162
105
104
104
200 156 157 154 150 142 150
99
138 136 129 127 123 123 122
94
94
92
88
87
82
82
100
100 100
50 50
-
1Q23E
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
- -
1Q17
4Q19
1Q21
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
Postpaid ARPU (Bt/sub/mth) Prepaid APRU (Bt/sub/mth)
Blended MOU (LHS) Postpaid MOU (RHS)
Blended ARPU (Bt/sub/mth) Prepaid MOU (RHS)
Sources: Company data and Bualuang Research estimates Source: Company data
Figure 11: Volume of usage (VOU) breakdown, quarterly Figure 12: ADVANC’s FBB revenue and its growth
2,754
(MB/sub/mth) (MB/sub/mth)
2,598
2,541
90% 3,000
2,487
31,500
2,437
1,094 48.3% 84.7%
29,600
2,290
2,189
28,000
2,038
2,500
24,900
1,919
1,852
35,000 70%
1,785
30,000
22,600
1,683
1,640
1,579
19,690
60% 2,000
1,475
30,000
18,190
18,040
1,380
25,000
17,180
17,000
1,288
8.6% 26.9% 1,212
50%
14,700
25,000
2.1% 26.0% 1,117
1,013
20,000 1,500
12,700
12,100
27.0%
11,500
11,400
10,900
22.0%
23.7%
40%
27.3%
20,000
7.0% 30.2%
10,100
21.9%
21.1%
22.6%
6.9% 32.1%
21.0%
17.0%
16.1%
13.5%
8,900
15,000
7.1% 26.2%
6.3% 27.2%
13.0%
7,600
10,000
3,580
20%
2,960
6.0%
2,590
10,000
8.0%
2,160
3.9%
4.6%
6.4%
2.0%
500
6.2%
7.4%
2.6%
6.1%
1Q21 3.6%
3Q22 2.2%
4Q22 2.3%
6.0%
- - 0% -
1Q23E
2Q19
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
1Q16
3Q21
3Q16
1Q17
3Q17
1Q18
3Q18
1Q19
3Q19
1Q20
3Q20
1Q21
1Q22
3Q22
Source: Company data Sources: Company data and Bualuang Research estimates
••• ADVANC 6
| RESEARCH
Figure 13: ADVANC’s 5G cumulative subscribers Figure 14: ADVANC’s 5G population coverage and cell sites
9
120% 26,000 26,000
8 7.6 21,000 23,000
99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 25,000
6.8 100%
7 90% 90% 90% 90%
19,000 85% 85%
81% 20,000
6 5.5 76% 78%
80%
5 60% 15,000
60% 10,000
3.9
4 42%
2.8 40% 6,700 10,000
3
25%
2.2 5,4005,700
2 1.5 1.6 16% 5,000
1.3 20%
1.0 1.1
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8
1 0.5 0.5
0.2 0.3 0% -
0 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22
4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23E 5G population coverage (BKK)
5G population coverage (Thailand)
5G cumulative subscribers (mn) 5G net subscriber additions (mn)
5G cell sites
Sources: Company data and Bualuang Research estimates Source: Company data
Figure 15: ADVANC’s transformation from “Digital Life Service Provider” to “Cognitive Tech-Co”
••• ADVANC 7
| RESEARCH
Figure 17: Cloud services as a growth engine along with demand for 5G services
••• ADVANC 8
| RESEARCH
Service rev (excl. IC & equip'nt) 1Q23E 1Q22 % YoY 4Q22 % QoQ
Mobile revenue 29,100 28,847 0.9 29,524 (1.4)
Fixed broadband (FBB) revenue 2,754 2,437 13.0 2,598 6.0
Other service revenues (CSL and others) 1,700 1,486 14.4 1,718 (1.0)
Total 33,554 32,770 2.4 33,840 (0.8)
SG&A breakdown
Marketing expenses 1,750 1,491 17.3 1,874 (6.6)
General administrative & others 3,800 4,046 (6.1) 3,619 5.0
••• ADVANC 9
| RESEARCH
Regional Comparisons
Bloomberg Price Market Cap PER (x) EPS Growth (%) PBV (x) ROE (%) Div Yield (%)
(US$
Code (local curr.) equivalent) 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E
China Telecom 728 HK HKD4.4 85,871 11.1 9.9 14.7 11.3 0.8 0.8 7.1 7.7 6.3 7.1
China Mobile 941 HK HKD66.0 184,668 9.1 8.5 7.4 6.9 0.9 0.9 10.3 10.8 7.8 8.5
Singapore Telecom ST SP SGD2.5 31,040 18.4 15.8 16.9 11.6 1.4 1.4 7.9 9.0 5.3 5.0
PLDT TEL PM PHP1,281.0 5,076 9.7 9.6 188.7 -3.2 2.1 2.0 23.2 22.0 7.3 6.9
SK Telecom 017670 KS KRW47,600 7,917 9.5 8.7 22.5 8.4 0.9 0.8 9.2 9.5 7.2 7.4
LG Telecom 032640 KS KRW10,950 3,633 6.4 6.0 11.2 6.9 0.6 0.5 8.8 9.0 6.4 6.8
Advanced Info Service ADVANC TB THB210.00 18,273 23.7 22.8 1.4 3.7 7.0 6.7 30.1 30.0 3.7 3.9
Intouch Holdings INTUCH TB THB74.00 6,942 22.2 21.4 1.4 3.8 6.4 6.2 28.2 28.0 3.8 4.0
True Corporation TRUE TB THB8.25 8,340 n.m. 200.5 n.m. n.m. 3.1 2.8 -2 1.5 0.3 1.0
Simple average 15.1 32.7 31.0 6.6 2.6 2.5 13.5 14.1 5.2 5.5
PER band versus SD (next 12 months) PBV band versus SD (next 12 months)
x x
+3.0 SD = 27. 4x +3.0 SD = 20.0 x
28
+2.0 SD = 24.3 x 20
+2.0 SD = 16.0 x
23 +1.0 SD = 20.8 x
15
18 LT-average = 17. x +1.0 SD = 12.0 x
-1.0 SD = 13.7 x 10 LT-average = 8.02x
13
-2.0 SD = 10.2 x
-0.75 SD = 5.02x
8 5
-1.25 SD = 3.0 x
3 0
YE03 YE05 YE07 YE09 YE11 YE13 YE15 YE17 YE19 YE21 YE23 YE03 YE05 YE07 YE09 YE11 YE13 YE15 YE17 YE19 YE21 YE23
PER band and share price PBV band and share price
450 700
20.0x
400 600
350 16.0x
500
300 13.0x
30x 400
250
25x 10.0x
200 300
20x
150 6.0x
15x 200
100
10x 100
50 2.0x
5x
0 0
YE03 YE05 YE07 YE09 YE11 YE13 YE15 YE17 YE19 YE21 YE23 YE03 YE05 YE07 YE09 YE11 YE13 YE15 YE17 YE19 YE21 YE23
Foreign holdings
% ADVANC ICT
50
40 43.2
30
20
10
0
10/22 11/22 12/22 1/23 2/23 3/23
••• ADVANC 10
| RESEARCH
Regarding human capital development, in IOD ratings = Five Stars or "Excellent". The CG
2024, it targets to acquire enough staff with Policy of AIS adheres fundamentally to laws and
new abilities in digital technology to support developed to be transparent, reliable and
business growth in which 85% of talent pool is acceptable in line with best practice of good
retained and 85% of talent on critical role staff corporate governance and sustainability growth,
undergo new ability training in digital both domestic and international standard. The
technology. For the social inclusion issue, it CG Policy was adopted in accordance with the
targets to improve the wellbeing of 700,000 CG Code 2017, CG Report of Thai Listed
people through our digital platform and Companies (CGR) by Thai Institute of Directors
collaboration by 2023. For cyber wellness, in Association, ASEAN CG Scorecard and DJSI
2023, it targets to become Thailand’s number indices (Dow Jones Sustainability Indices). The
one telecommunications brand, trusted for composition of the Board of Directors is diverse
cyber wellness and online safety. It will promote in terms of experience, education, gender, race,
cyber wellness and online safety at 1,500 country of origin and nationality. Additionally,
schools and protect 290,000 Thai users from more than half of the Board of Directors is
cyber threats. composed of independent directors and non-
executive directors.
••• ADVANC 11
| RESEARCH
BUALUANG SECURITIES PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED MAY BE IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SECURITIES IN THIS REPORT. “Opinions,
projections and other information contained in this report are based upon sources believed to be accurate including the draft prospectus, but no
responsibility is accepted for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited may from
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otherwise being interested in, any securities mentioned herein, This report does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any securities”. Investors
should carefully read details in the prospectus before making investment decision.
BUALUANG SECURITIES PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED MAY ACT AS MARKET MAKER AND ISSUER OF DWs, AND ISSUER OF STRUCTURED
NOTES ON THESE SECURITIES. The company may prepare the research reports on those underlying securities. Investors should carefully read the
details of the derivative warrants and structured notes in the prospectus before making investment decisions.
ADVANC AMATA AOT BDMS BH CBG CENTEL CPALL GLOBAL GPSC IRPC KBANK KCE KTC MINT
PTG PTT PTTEP PTTGC SCB SPRC TOP WHA ESSO STA BGRIM GULF MTC AWC CRC
CPF CPN HANA HMPRO IVL OSP SAWAD BANPU BCH BTS CK SCC STEC TISCO TU
INTUCH RATCH VGI SCGP COM7 DOHOME JMT CHG TTB BAM BCP AP KTB KKP OR
BEM GUNKUL EA SPALI RBF STGT MEGA JMART BEC SYNEX BLA KEX RCL SINGER STARK
TIDLOR FORTH TIPH AAV DELTA BCPG SABUY THG CKP TRUE PSL
Lead underwriter/
Financial Advisor Underwriter/
Co-underwriter
MGC
CG Rating
Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
under Thai Institute of Directors
• companies that have declared their intention to join CAC, and
• companies certified by CAC.
••• ADVANC 12
| RESEARCH
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does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or completeness of its research reports. Morgan Stanley reserves copyright and other proprietary rights in
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“Disclaimer: The disclosure of the Anti-Corruption Progress Indicators of a listed company on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, which is assessed by the
relevant institution as disclosed by the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission, is made in order to comply with the policy and sustainable
development plan for the listed companies. The relevant institution made this assessment based on the information received from the listed company, as
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BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
months. expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
HOLD: Expected total returns of between -15% and +15% over the next 12 NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
months. expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12
SELL: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months.
months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12
3 months. months.
••• ADVANC 13
| RESEARCH
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••• ADVANC 14