ETHZ Spring Semester 2023

Snow and Avalanches – Schnee, Lawinen, Schutzkonzepte

J. Schweizer, S. Margreth

Assignment 2: Avalanche danger assessment

Task 1 21 points (in total, see below)

How does the avalanche danger (danger levels 1–Low to 5–Very High according to the European
avalanche danger scale) develop during the period of 31 December 2020 – 3 January 2021 (4 days) in
the region of Oberwald (Upper Valais)? Please follow the instructions given below!

Task 2 4 points
What kind of avalanches is to be expected at the time when the avalanche danger peaks? Describe
expected size, type and release type (natural and/or artificial). Consider the snow stratigraphy.

Instructions to derive danger development (Task 1):

1. Given the danger description for the region of Oberwald on 30 December 2020, what is the
corresponding danger level for that day? Please sketch the evolution of the danger on that day
(see Figure 1 provided below).  3 points
2. For each day, starting on 31 December 2020 at 08:00, evaluate the effect of the following
contributory factors (during the next 24 hours): new snow, wind, air temperature, snow cover.
Insert “+”, “–“ and “0”-signs into the corresponding column of Table 1 (attached word file) to
indicate the effect on snow stability. Use "+" if the factor favours stability, use "–" if the factor
favours instability. If the factor has neither a positive nor a negative effect on stability, use "0".
 4 × 4 points
3. For each contributory factor, shortly explain, why it causes snow stability to increase, decrease or
does not have an influence on stability on a given day (Table 1, column 4).
4. Give an overall assessment of the evolution of the avalanche danger for each day (starting at 08:00
in the morning up to 08:00 the next morning) (last column of Table 1).
5. Sketch the evolution of the avalanche danger from 31 December 2020 – 3 February 2021 (see
Figure 1 provided below).  2 points

The following data are provided:

• Data on snow height, new snow height, air and snow surface temperature, and wind of the
automatic weather station Oberwald, 2432/2733 m a.s.l.
• Danger description from the avalanche bulletin valid for the region of Oberwald for
30 December 2020
• Snow profile taken at Treichbode, Oberwald recorded on 18 December 2020
• Snow profile taken at Oberwalderblase, Oberwald recorded on 4 January 2021
• European avalanche danger level scale

Assignment 2 is due on 17 April 2023 at 24:00.

The assignment can be done in groups of two students.
The assignment has to be submitted via the Moodle Portal as a single pdf-file. Please use the
following file name structure: Name_firstname_assignment2.pdf
To simplify the grading, each student has to submit the assignment (even if you work in a group of
two).
Your name has to appear on top of the first page, as well as the other student’s name you have
worked with.
Map of Oberwald region
Weather data of automatic weather station (IMIS) Oberwald
New snow depth

Data of new snow height measured manually at the observation station Oberwald (1370 m
a.s.l.) and modelled at the IMIS Station Oberwald, Jostsee 2432 m a.s.l.
Note that new snow is measured at about 08:00 in the morning. It is the new snow amount
fallen within the last 24 hours, i.e. sometimes, most of the new snow did fall the day before.
The modelled new snow height is also given for 08:00 in the morning.

Date Jostsee: Oberwald:

Modelled new Measured new
snow height/24 h snow height/24 h
(cm) (cm)
31 Dec 2020 0 0
1 Jan 2021 47 14
2 Jan 2021 33 23
3 Jan 2021 29 6
4 Jan 2021 0 0

Danger description from the avalanche bulletin valid for the region of Oberwald on 30
December 2020

No particular avalanche problem, favourable conditions

Avalanche prone locations Danger description

[not specified] Since yesterday some small wind slabs formed.
They can occasionally be triggered, in particular on
shady slopes.
In addition to the risk of burial, particular attention
should be paid to the risk of being carried away by
sluffs and falling over cliffs.
 Snow profile: Location: VS Goms, Oberwald, Treichboden Date & time: 18.12.2020 11:00
Observer: Lukas Samuel Beni Elevation: 2272 m Air temp.: 2.1 °C
Profile no.: 1 Aspect of slope: N / Slope angle: 31 ° Sky condition: clear (0/8)
coordinates: 670797 / 151691 Wind: NW / 5 km/h
Water equivalent HSW: --- mm (HS: --- cm) Mean density: --- kg/m³ Mean ram resistance: 22 N
Hasty Pit: No fracture line profile: No Piste profile: No
Weather & precip.:
Remarks:
PP DF RG FC DH SH MF IFil FCxr machine PPgp

Ram resistance (N)

H θ F E R Lemon Rutschblock
1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 mm
K P 1F 4F F

190

180

170

160

150

140

130

120

110
Height (cm)

100

90
86 cm
1 3
1 1 ***
80 RB3
1-2 4-5 *** partial, one corner
rough
*****
70 2 1

2 4 *****
60 *****
1-2 1-2
N / 31°
1 4-5 * * * * *
50 ******

2 1

40

1.5 3-4 * * * * *
******
30

20
5 1

10

-24 -22 -20 -18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0

Temperature (°C)

Copyright (C) SLF Davos

 Snow profile: Location: VS Oberwalderblase - Oberwald Date & time: 04.01.2021 14:30
Observer: Meier - Müller Elevation: 2220 m Air temp.: 0.5 °C
Profile no.: 1 Aspect of slope: W / Slope angle: 29 ° Sky condition: clear (0/8)
coordinates: 670871 / 152042 Wind: SW / 2 km/h
Water equivalent HSW: --- mm (HS: --- cm) Mean density: --- kg/m³ Mean ram resistance: 42 N
Hasty Pit: No fracture line profile: No Piste profile: No
Weather & precip.:
Remarks:
PP DF RG FC DH SH MF IFil FCxr machine PPgp

Ram resistance (N)

H θ F E R Lemon Rutschblock
1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 mm
K P 1F 4F F

190

180

170

160

150

140

129 cm 130

120

.25-.75 2
110
Height (cm)

100
RB4
1-1.5 2-3 *** whole block
clean
1-1.5 1 ****
90
1-2 3-4 * * * * *
*****
1-1.5 1
80

W / 29°
.75-1 2-3 ****
.75-1 1-2 ***
70
1 3-4 ****
.75-1 1-2 ****
60 1-2 4 ****
***

50 .75-1.25 2

40 **

.75-1.25 2-3

30
*****

20

2-3 1

10

-24 -22 -20 -18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0

Temperature (°C)

Copyright (C) SLF Davos

European danger scale with recommendations
Danger level Snowpack stability Avalanches: Release probability, size, frequency Consequences for transportation routes and Consequences for persons outside secured zones /
settlements / recommendations recommendations

5 very high The snowpack is poorly bonded
and largely unstable in general.
4 high The snowpack is poorly bonded
on most steep slopes*.
3 considerable The snowpack is moderately to
poorly bonded on many steep
slopes*.
Numerous very large and often extremely large natural
avalanches have to be expected.
Triggering is likely even from low additional loads** on
many steep slopes. In some cases, numerous large and
often very large natural avalanches have to be
expected.
Triggering is possible, even by low additional loads**
particularly on those steep slopes indicated in the
bulletin. In certain situations some large, occasionally
very large natural avalanches are possible.
Avalanche can travel large distances,
including beyond the extent of familiar
paths. Transportation routes and
settlements can be seriously endangered.
Extensive safety measures are usually
required.
Avalanches can travel large distances, in
particular within familiar paths. Exposed
objects (mostly sections of transportation
routes, but occasionally also buildings) can
be endangered.
Consider taking safety measures.
Occasionally exposed objects (mostly
sections of transportation routes) can be
endangered. At these locations, it should be
considered to take safety measures.
Exceptional avalanche situation.
You are advised not to engage in winter sports beyond
open ski runs and trails.
Respect closures.
Very critical avalanche situation.
Stay on moderately steep terrain. Heed runout zones
of very large avalanches. Unexperienced persons
should remain on opne ski runs and trails.
Critical avalanche situation.
Select best possible route and take action to reduce
risks. Avoid very steep slopes of aspect and elevation
indicated in the bulletin. Unexperienced persons are
advised to remain on open ski runs and trails.

2 moderate The snowpack is only moderately
well bonded on some steep
slopes*, otherwise well bonded
in general.
1 low The snowpack is in general well
bonded (or entirely loosely
packed) and stable.
Triggering is possible primarily by high additional
loads**, particularly on those steep slopes indicated in
the bulletin. Large natural avalanches are unlikely.
Triggering is generally possible only by high additional
loads** at very locations in very steep, extreme
terrain. Natural avalanches are unlikely.
Low danger of natural avalanches. Mostly favourable situation.
Routes should be selected carefully, especially on
slopes of aspect and elevation indicated in the
bulletin. Travel very steep slopes one person at a time.
Pay attention to unfavourable snowpack structure
(persistent weak layers, old snow problem).
No danger Generally favourable avalanche situation.

Explanations: * generally explained in greater detail in the Avalanche Bulletin (e.g. elevation zone, aspect, type of terrain)
** Additional load: - natural: without human assistance
- high (e.g. group of skiers without spacing, snowmobile/groomer, avalanche blasting) - aspect: the compass direction in which a downward slope faces
- low (e.g. single skier, snowboarder, snowshoe hiker) - exposed: especially exposed to danger
 moderately steep terrain: slopes less steep than about 30 degrees
 steep slopes: slopes with an angle greater than about 30 degrees
 very steep, extreme terrain: slopes which are particularly unfavourable as regards to slope angle (usually steeper than about 40°), terrain profile, proximity to ridge, roughness of underlying ground

23 March 2019/Sz
Avalanche danger level

5–Very high

4–High

3–Considerable

2–Moderate

1–Low

28 29 30 31 1 2 3

December 2020 – January 2021

Figure 1: Evolution of avalanche danger; the avalanche danger level as forecasted in the avalanche
bulletin is shown until 7 February at 08:00.
Table 1: Assessment of the avalanche danger

Date Contributory factors +/-/0 Assessment of Overall assessment

contributory factors
31 Dec new snow

wind

temperature

snow cover

1 Jan new snow

wind

temperature

snow cover

2 Jan new snow

wind

temperature

snow cover

3 Jan new snow

wind

temperature

snow cover