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PRESENTADO POR:
BRYAN ANDRES ALVAREZ NUÑEZ
GRUPO:
212066_81
PRESENTADO
NURY A:
YASMIN MORENO
CCAV -
2023
ES
ncertainty
UÑEZ
A DISTANCIA
OGÍA E INGENIERÍA
Exercise 1. Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic, Hurwicz an
Table 1. Optimal solution for choose best technolog
Event
1. CRITERIO DE LAPLACE
p(j) (1/5) (1/5) (1/5)
EVENTO
3. CRITERIO OPTIMISTA
EVENTO
4. CRITERIO DE HURWICZ
EVENTO
Alternative Does not fit Fits acceptably Fits successfully
5. CRITERIO DE SAVAGE
EVENTO
Alternative Does not fit Fits acceptably Fits successfully
Technology 1 611 666 696
Technology 2 751 606 656
Technology 3 831 731 696
Technology 4 751 671 691
Technology 5 631 691 791
MIN.VALOR 611 606 656
EVENTO
Alternative Does not fit Fits acceptably Fits successfully
Technology 1 0 60 40
Technology 2 140 0 0
Technology 3 220 125 40
Technology 4 140 65 35
Technology 5 20 85 135
c, optimistic, Hurwicz and Savage criteria (Cost Matrix)
for choose best technology
vent
Fits
Fits very
successful Fits well
well
ly
E
(1/5) (1/5)
Valor Menor del
Fits well Fits very well Promedio
Promedio
731 791 699 689
661 771 689
704 791 750.6
731 811 731
631 706 690
STA
ALFA=PESIMISTA BETA=OPTIMISTA
Coeficiente Pesimista
Fits well Fits very well MINIMO MAXIMO
Alfa
731 791 611 791
661 771 606 771
704 791 696 0.7 831
731 811 671 811
631 706 631 791
Conclusión
Conclusión
Conclusión
La tecnologia 2 de acuerdo al criterio Optimista es la mejor
alternativa por costo y grado de adaptación para los trabajadores
BETA=OPTIMISTA
Valor
Coeficiente Optimista Beta
Esperado
665
656
0.3 737
713
679
MINIMO VALOR 656
Conclusión