Answer Key

2022-2023
Class: 12 Worksheet Number: 12/math/13/AK
Subject: Mathematics Chapter: 13 - Probability

Section A
One Mark Questions
1. 3 1 3 1
P  A   P  no.o btd . is even    , P  B   P  no.o btd . is red   
6 2 6 2
1
P  A  B   P  no.o btd . is red and even    P  A  .P  B 
6
 A and B are not independent events
2. 7 7
P (a white ball from Bag 1) = 
7  8 15
9
P (a white ball from Bag 2) =
15
5
P (a white ball from Bag 3) =
12
7 9 5 7
P( white ball from all thebags )    
15 15 12 60
8 6 7 28
P(red ball from all thebags )    
15 15 12 225
7 28 217
reqd prob  P(all balls of same colour )   
60 225 900
3. Let F and E are events “sum of numbers is 5” and “4 appears at least once’
 F = { (1, 5), (2, 4) , (3,3), (4, 2), (5, 1) }
E = { (1, 4) , (2, 4), (3, 4) , (4, 1), ( 4, 2), (4,3),(4, 4) , (4, 5), (4, 6), (5, 4), (6, 7)}
2
P( E  F ) 36 2
Reqd. probability=P(E/F) =  
P( F ) 5 5
36
4. P (A) = 1/6 P (B) = 1/7
1 1 1
Since, they are independent events P( A  B)  P  A .P  B    
6 7 42
 P ( A  B) = P (Ramesh is selected for at least one of the post)
1 1 1 12 2
= P  A  P  B   P( A  B)     
6 7 42 42 7
5. S = { Bb, Bg, Gb, Gg}
(i) Event of having both boys, E = {Bb} ,
Event of having at least one boy, F = { (Bb) , (Bg), (Gb)}.So, E  F = {Bb}
P( E  F ) n  E  F  1
P (E/F) =  
P( F ) nF  3
(ii) Event of having elder child as boy ,G = { (Bb), (Bg),}, E  G  Bb
P( E  G) n( E  G) 1
P(E/G) =  
P(G) n(G) 2

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6. 5
P  E   P  Sum of nos appearing onthetwo diceis 8 
36
As E = { (2, 6,), (6, 2), (4, 4), (5, 3), (3, 5)}
F : Event of No.5 appears at least once,
1, 5  ,  2, 5  ,  3, 5  ,  4, 5  ,  5, 5  ,  6, 5  ,  5,1 , 
 
F  
 5, 2  ,  5, 3 ,  5, 4  ,  6, 5 
 

11
PF  
36
E  F = { (3, 5), (5, 3)}
2
P( E  F )
P(F/ E)   36  2
P(E) 5 5
36

7. E : Card drawn is even  2, 4, 6,8,10,12

F : no.on the card drawn is more than 3  4, 5, 6, 7,8, 9,10,11,12
E  F  4, 6,8,10,12
PE  F  nE  F  5
reqd . prob.  P  E / F    
PF  nF  9

Section B
Three Marks Questions
8. No. of boys = 10
Total out comes = 18 C3
No. of girls = 8
No. of students selected = 3
10
C 5
(i) P (all boys) = 18 3 
C3 34
8
C 7
(ii) P (all girls) = 18 3 
C3 102
10 8
C2  C1 15
(iii) P (2 boys and girls) = 18

C3 34

9. Consider the following events:

E1 :Bag 1 is chosen, E2: Bag 2 is chosen, A: red ball is drawn

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1 4 6
P( E1 )  P( E2 )  , P( A / E1 )  , P( A / E2 ) 
2 7 11
P( E2 ) . P( A / E2 )
reqd . prob.  P( E / A) 
2 P( E2 ) . P( A / E2 )  P( E1 ) . P( A / E1 )
1 6 6

2 11 42 21
  11  
1 6 1 4 42  44 86 43
  
2 11 2 7 77

10. Consider the following events:

E1 : Scooter chosen is manufactured from plant 1,
E2: Scooter chosen is manufactured from plant 2, A: Scooter chosen is of standard quality

70 7 30 3 80 8 90 9
P( E1 )   , P( E2 )   , P( A / E1 )   , P ( A / E2 )  
100 10 100 10 100 10 100 10
P( E2 ) . P( A / E2 )
reqd . prob.  P( E / A) 
2 P( E2 ) . P( A / E2 )  P( E1 ) . P( A / E1 )
3 9

10 10 27 27
  
3 9 7 8 27  56 83
  
10 10 10 10

 
11. 6 4
P  A speaks truth   P  A   , P A 
10 10
9
P  B speaks truth   P  B   , P B 
10
 
1
10
     
P  they contradict each other   P A B or A B  P  A  P B  P A P  B 
6 1 4 9 42
    
10 10 10 10 100
in 42% of cases they are likely to contradict each other in stating the same fact .

12. Consider the following events:

W1 : white ball is selected from Bag I ,
R1: red ball is selected from Bag I,
W2: white ball is selected from Bag II .

 
P W 
1
6
11
 
,P R 
1
5
11
Re qd . prob.  P W   P W  .P W /W   P  R  P W /R 
2 1 2 1 1 2 1

6 6 5 5 36 25 61
      
11 9 11 9 99 99 99

13. Consider the following events:

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E1 : Insured vehicle is a scooter
E2: Insured vehicle is motor cycle
A: Insured vehicle meets with an accident
2000 2 3000 3 1 2
P( E1 )   , P( E2 )   , P( A / E1 )  0.01  , P( A / E2 )  0.02 
5000 5 5000 5 100 100
P( E2 ) . P( A / E2 )
reqd . prob.  P( E / A) 
2 P( E2 ) . P( A / E2 )  P( E1 ) . P( A / E1 )
3 2

5 100 6 3
  
3 2 2 1
   62 4
5 100 5 100

14. Consider the following events:

E1 :Bag I is chosen, E2: Bag II is chosen, A: white ball is drawn
1 3 5
P( E1 )  P( E2 )  , P( A / E1 )  , P( A / E2 ) 
2 7 11
P( E1 ) . P( A / E1 )
reqd . prob.  P( E / A) 
1 P( E1 ) . P( A / E1 )  P( E2 ) . P( A / E2 )
1 3 3

2 7 7 33
  
1 3 1 5 33  35 68
  
2 7 2 11 77

15. Consider the following events:

E1 :Bag 1 is chosen, E2: Bag 2 is chosen, A: white ball is drawn
1 2 3
P( E1 )  P( E2 )  , P( A / E1 )  , P( A / E2 ) 
2 6 6
P( E1 ) . P( A / E1 )
reqd . prob.  P( E / A) 
1 P( E1 ) . P( A / E1 )  P( E2 ) . P( A / E2 )
1 2

2 6 2
 
1 2 1 3 5
  
2 6 2 6

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16. Here X denotes the no. of doublets in 2 tosses of a pair of dice
Possible values of X are 0,1,2
Let E be the event of getting a doublet in any toss

PE 
6
36 6
1
 ,P E 
5
6
 
 
P  X  0  P E E   
5 5 25
6 6 36

 
1 5 5 1 10
P  X  1  P E E or EE     
6 6 6 6 36
1 1 1
P  X  2   P  EE    
6 6 36
Probability distribution of X is:
x 0 1 2
P(x) 25/36 10/36 1/36

17. Let X denotes the no. of aces in the two cards drawn one by one without replacement
X = 0, 1, 2
P  X  0   P  non acein I draw  .P  non acein II draw 
48 47 12 47 188
    
52 51 13 51 221
P  X  1  P  non acein I draw and acein II draw   P  acein I draw and nonacein II draw
48 4 4 48 32
    
52 51 52 51 221
P  X  2   P  acein I draw  .P  acein II draw 
4 3 1
  
52 51 221
Probability distribution of X is
X 0 1 2
P(X) 188/221 32/221 1/221
18. Consider the following events:
Y1 : Yellow ball is selected from Bag I ,
R1 : red ball is selected from Bag I,
Y2: Yellow ball is selected from Bag II .

P   94 , P    95
Y
1
R
1

Re qd . prob.  P    P   .P 
Y Y Y /Y   PR  P Y /R 
2 1 2 1 1 2 1

4 7 5 6 28 30 58 29
       
9 10 9 10 90 90 90 45

19. 15 14
Total no. of cases = C2 
15
 105
2!
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3
C2 3 1
i) P  Both balls red   15
 
C2 105 35
C1  5 C1
3
15 1
ii ) P  one red and other black   15
 
C2 105 7

7
C1  8 C1 56 8
iii ) P  One white   15
 
C2 105 15

20. Consider the following events:

E1 :Bag 1 is chosen, E2: Bag 2 is chosen, A: white ball is drawn
1 1 4
P( E1 )  P( E2 )  , P( A / E1 )  , P( A / E2 ) 
2 7 7
P( E1 ) . P( A / E1 )
reqd . prob.  P( E / A)  Let E1 be the
1 P( E1 ) . P( A / E1 )  P( E2 ) . P( A / E2 )
1 1

2 7 1
 
1 1 1 4 5
  
2 7 2 7

21. Let X denotes the number of aces in the two cards drawn one by one with replacement
then X can take values 0, 1, 2

48 48 144
P  X  0   P  non acein I draw .P  non acein II draw    
52 52 169
P  X  1  P  acein I draw and nonacein II   P  nonacein I draw and acein II 
4 48 48 4 24
    
52 52 52 52 169
4 4 1
P  X  2   P  acein I draw  .P  acein II draw    
52 52 169

x p
14 24 1 24 2 26 2
Mean  i
0  1   2    
i
169 169 169 169 169 169 13

 xi
n
22.
Mean = p ( xi ) where n = 3
i 1

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1 3 3 1 3 6 3 3
= 0 × + 1× + 2 × + 3 × = 0 + + + =
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 2
2
2 3 12 9   3 
2
Variance = E(x ) - [E(x)] =  0 + + + - 
 8 8 8 2
24 9 24 -18 6
= - = = = 0.75
8 4 8 8
S.D. = σ = 0.75 = 0.866

23. n
 Pi  1
i 1
(i)
 0  k  2k  2k  3k  k 2  2 k 2  7k 2  k 1  10k 2  9k  1  0
10k 2  10k  k  1  0  10 k ( k  1)  (k  1)  6
 (10k  1) (k  1)  0  10k  1  0 or (k  1)  0
 10k  1 or k  1(not possible)  k  1
10
(ii) P(x<3) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2)= 0+k+2k= 3k = 3/10
(ii) P (x > 6) = P(x = 7) = 7k2 + k = 17/100
3
(iv) P (0< x < 3) = P(x = 1) + P(x = 2) = k + 2k = 3 k =
10
24. Let X denotes the no of red cards out of two cards drawn simultaneously.
26C2  26C0 25
P( X  0)  
52C2 102
26C1  26C1 26 52
P( X  1)   
52C2 51 102
26C0  26C2 25
P( X  2)   .
52C2 102
 Pr ob distribution of X is
X : 0 1 2
25 52 25
P( X ):
102 102 102
52 50
XP( X ) : 0
102 102


102
mean  E  X   XP ( X )  1
102


52 100 152
X 2 P( X )  0   
102 102 102
152 2 152  102

50
Var ( X )  X 2 P( X )  [ E ( X )]2  1    0.49
102 102 102

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25. Let X denote the random variable showing the no. of doublets in three throws of a pair
of dice. Then X can take value 0, 1, 2, 3.
Let E be the event of getting a doublet in any throw.Then
6 1 5
PE  P( E ) 
36 6 6
3
 5  125
P ( X  0)  P( E1 E2 E3 )    
6 216
P ( X 1)  P( E1 E2 E3 )  P ( E1 E2 E3 )  P( E1 E2 E3 )
1 5 5 5 1 5 5 5 1 75
         
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 216
P ( X  2)  P ( E1 E2 E3 )  P ( E1 E2 E3 )  P ( E1 E2 E3 )
1 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 1 15
         
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 216
3
1 1
P ( X  3)  P ( E1 E2 E3 )    
6 216
26. Let S denote the success (getting a ‘6’) and F denotes the failure (not getting a ‘6’)
1 5
Thus P(S) = = p , P(F) = =q
6 6
Since A starts the game, so he can win in 1st , 3rd, 5th throw,…

1
 1  1 36 6
P(A wins) = p + q 2 p + q 4 p +... = p (1+ q 2 + q 4 + ....) = p  2 
= 6 = × =
 1- q  25 6 11 11
1-
36
6 5
 P ( B wins) = 1- P (A wins) = 1- =
11 11
27. n(s) = Total out comes = 100
n (A) = No divisible by 6 = 16
n(B) = No. divisible by 8 = 12
n (A  B) = nos divisible by 6 and 8 = 4
16 12 4
P( A)  ; P( B)  ; P( A  B) 
100 100 100
16 12 4 24 6
 P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)     
100 100 100 100 25
28. The outcomes of the given experiment are
TT,TH,H1,H2,H3,H4,H5,H6 with probabilities
P(TT)=1/4 ;P(HT)=1/4 ;P(H1)=P(H2)=P(H3)=P(H4)=P(H5)=P(H6)=1/12
Let A denotes the event of getting at least one tail={TH,H1,H2,H3,H4,H5,H6}
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3
 P  A        
4 12 12 12 12 12 12 4
Let B denotes the event that die shows a no. greater than 3={H4,H5,H6}

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1 1 1 1
B  A  H 4, H 5, H 6  P  B  A     
12 12 12 4
P  B  A 1
Re qd .Pr ob  P  B / A   
P  A 3
29. Let X denotes the number of white balls out of 4 balls drawn at random(without replacement).
Possible values of X are 0,1,2,3,4
6 4 6
C4 6.5.4.3 1 C C 4.5.4 8
P  X  0   10   , P  X  1  101 3  
C4 10.9.8.7 14 C4 10.9.8.7 21
4!
4 6 4 6 4
C C 6.15 3 C C 4.6 4 C 1 1
P  X  2   102 2   , P  X  3  103 1   , P  X  4   10 4  
C4 10.9.8.7 7 C4 10.9.8.7 35 C4 10.9.8.7 210
4! 4! 4!
 prob. distribution of X is
X: 0 1 2 3 4
1 8 3 4 1
P X :
14 21 7 35 210

30. Consider the following events:

E1 : First ball drawn is red
E2: First ball drawn is black
A: Second ball drawn is red
3 7 2 3
P( E1 )  , P( E2 )  , P( A / E1 )  , P( A / E2 ) 
10 10 9 9
P( E1 ) . P( A / E1 )
reqd . prob.  P( E1 / A) 
P( E1 ) . P( A / E1 )  P( E2 ) . P( A / E2 )
3 2

10 9 6 2
  
3 2 7 3 27 9
  
10 9 10 9

31. Consider the following events:

E1 :Selected coin has heads on both sides
E2: Selected coin is fair
A: all 5 tosses of selected coin reslted in head

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2 8 1 1 1 1 1 1
P( E1 )  , P( E2 )  , P( A / E1 )  1, P( A / E2 )      
10 10 2 2 2 2 2 32
P( E1 ) . P( A / E1 )
reqd . prob.  P( E1 / A) 
P( E1 ) . P( A / E1 )  P( E2 ) . P( A / E2 )
2 2
1
10 8
  10 
2 8 1 2 1 9
1   
10 10 32 10 40
32. Define the events A : Selection of committee having exactly 2 boys
B : Selection of committee having atleast 1 girl
P  A  B
Re qd . prob.  P  A / B  
P  B
7! 7!
4  6  4 7 1
4
C1  C3  C2 C2  C3 C1  C4
7 4 7 4 7 4
59
P  B  11
 3!4! 2!5! 
C4 11! 66
4!7!
21
4
C2 7C2 21 126
P  A  B   11   P  A / B   55 
C4 55 59 295
66

33. Consider the following events:

E1 : Machine is correctly set up
E2: Machine is incorrectly set up
A: Machine produces two acceptable items

80 4 20 1 90 90 81 40 40 16
P( E1 )   , P( E2 )   , P( A / E1 )    , P( A / E2 )   
100 5 100 5 100 100 100 100 100 100
P( E1 ) . P( A / E1 )
reqd . prob.  P( E1 / A) 
P( E1 ) . P( A / E1 )  P( E2 ) . P( A / E2 )
4 81

5 100 324 81
  
4 81 1 16 340 85
  
5 100 5 100

34. Here X denotes the sum of numbers on the two cards drawn. Possible values of X
are:4,6,8,10,12

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2 cards can be drawn out of 4 in 4C2  6 ways
1 1 2
P  X  4   P (1,3)  , P  X  6   P (1,5)  , P  X  8   P (1, 7), (3,5) 
6 6 6
1 1
P  X  10   P (3, 7)  , P  X  12   P (5, 7) 
6 6
 Pr ob distribution of X is :
X : 4 6 8 10 12
1 1 2 1 1
P X  :
6 6 6 6 6
4 6 16 10 12
XP  X  :
6 6 6 6 6
16 36 128 100 144
X 2P  X  :
6 6 6 6 6
48
mean     XP  X   8
6
424 424  384 40
var iance   2   X 2 P  X    2   64    6.67
6 6 6
Section C
Five Marks Questions

35. Let E1 , E2 and E3 denote events that machine is produced by factory A, B & C
respectively.
25 1 35 7 40 2
P( E1 )   , P( E2 )   , p( E3 )  
100 4 100 20 100 5

Let A be the event that defective bolt is drawn

5 4 2
P( A / E1 )  p( A / E2 )  p( A / E3 ) 
100 100 100
By Baye ' s theorem.
35 4

100 100 140 140 28
P( E2 / A)    
25

5

35

4

40

2 125  140  80 345 69
100 100 100 100 100 100
36. Consider the following events:
E1: Insured person is a scooter driver.
E2: Insured person is a car driver.
E3: Insured person is a truck driver.
Let A be the event that an insured person meets with an accident.

11
 Answer Key
2022-2023
 
P E1 
2000
12000 6
1
 , P E2   
4000
12000
1
 , P E3 
3
6000
12000

1
2
 
 
P A / E1 
1
100

, P A / E2 
3

100
, P A / E3 
3

20

Re qd . Pr ob. 
   
P E1 P A / E1
.
PE  P A / E   PE  P A / E   PE  P  A / E 
1 1 2 2 3 3

1 1

6 100 1 1
  
1 1 1 3 1 3 1  6  45 52
    
6 100 3 100 2 20

37. Let E1 ,E2 and E3 be the events of drawing a bolt produced by machine X , Y and Z
respectively. Let A be the event that a defective bolt is drawn
  1000 1   2000 2   3000 3
P E    , P E    , P E   
 1  6000 6  2  6000 6  3  6000 6
  1   1.5 3   2
P A / E  , P A / E    , P A / E  
 1  100  2  100 200  3  100

 By Bay es theorem.
P ( A / E1 )  P( E1 )
= P( E1 / A) 
P( A / E1 ) . P ( E1 )  P( A / E2 )  P( E2 )  P( A / E3 )  P( E3 )
1 1

6 100 1 1
    0.1
1

1 1 3 1
   
2 1  3  6 10
6 100 3 200 2 100

38. Let E1 ,E2 and E3 be the events that item drawn is produced by machine A, B and C
respectively. Let A be the event that a defective item is drawn
  100 1   200 2   300 3
P E    ,P E    , P E   
 1  600 6  2  600 6  3  600 6
  2   3   5
P A / E  , P A / E   , P A / E  
 1  100  2  100  3  100

 By Bay es theorem.
P ( A / E1 )  P( E1 )
= P( E1 / A) 
P( A / E1 ) . P ( E1 )  P( A / E2 )  P( E2 )  P( A / E3 )  P( E3 )
1 2

6 100 2 2
  
1 2 1 3 1 5 2  6  15 23
    
6 100 3 100 2 100
39. Let E1 be the event that the chosen car is manufactured by plant A.
E2 be the event that the chosen car is manufactured by plant B.
12
 Answer Key
2022-2023
6 3 40 2
P ( E1) = = P (E2) = 
10 5 100 5
Let A be the event of choosing a car of standard Quality
Reqd. Prob. =P ( E2 /A) = ?
 
P A / E1 
8 4

10 5
, P A / E2   90
100
 9
10
P ( E2 ) . P( A / E2 )
P( E2 / A) 
P ( E1 )  P ( A / E1 )  P( E2 )  P ( A / E2 )
2 9 9

5 10 25 9 3
     0.428
2 9 3 4 9 12 21 7
   
5 10 5 5 25 25
40. Let E1 be the event that Bag I is chosen
E2 be the event that Bag II is chosen
E3, be the event that Bag III is chosen
1
P(E1) = P ( E2) = P(E3) =
3
A : Event of choosing 1 white and 1 red ball from the bag
1
C1  3C1 3 1 C1  1C1
2
2 1
P( A / E1 )  6
  , P ( A / E2 )  4
  ,
C2 15 5 C2 6 3
C1  C1
4 2
4 2 2
P( A / E3 )  9
 
C2 36 9
P( A / E3 ). P ( E3 )
P( E3 / A) 
P( A / E1 )  P( E1 )  P( A / E2 )  P( E2 )  P( A / E3 )  P( E3 )
1 2 1 2
 
3 9 3 9 2 34 2 45 5
      
1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 9 45 9 34 17
        
3 5 3 3 3 9 3 5 3 9

41. Let E1 be the event that one occurs and E2 be the event that one does not occur.
1 5
P(E1) = P(E2) =
6 6
Let A be the event that man throws a die and reports it is one.

  3
 
P A / E1  P  Man speaks the truth   , P A / E2  P  Man speaks a lie  
5
2
5

13
 Answer Key
2022-2023
P ( E1 )  P ( A / E1 )
 reqd . prob.  P( E1 / A) 
P ( E1 )  P ( A / E1 )  P ( E2 )  P ( A / E2 )
1 3

6 5 3 3
  
1 3 5 2 3  10 13
  
6 5 6 5

42. Let E1 be the event that 5 occurs and E2 be the event that 5 does not occur.
1 5
P(E1) = P(E2) =
6 6
Let A be the event that man throws a die and reports it is 5.

 
P A / E1  P  Man speaks the truth  
8 4
  2 1
 , P A / E2  P  Man speaks a lie   
10 5 10 5

P ( E1 )  P ( A / E1 )
 reqd . prob.  P( E1 / A) 
P ( E1 )  P ( A / E1 )  P ( E2 )  P ( A / E2 )
1 4

6 5 4 4
  
1 4 5 1 45 9
  
6 5 6 5

43. P (Grade A in Maths) = P(M) = 0.2

P (Grade A in Physics) = P(P) = 0.3
P (Grade A in Chemistry ) = P(C) = 0.5
(i) P( Grade A in all subjects)  P(M  P  C )
= P(M) . P(P) . P(C) = 0.2  0.3  0.5  0.03
(ii) Grade A in no subjects = P (M  P  C ) = 0.8 0.7  0.5 = 0. 280
(iii) Grade A in 2 subjects = P (Grade A in M and P and not in C)
+ P (Grade A in P and C and not in M)
+ P ( Grade A in M and C and not in P)
   
=  P M  P C  P P  C  M  P ( M  C  P )
=0.2 0.2  0.3  0.5  0.3  0.5  0.8  0.2  0.5  0.7  0.03  0.12  0.07  0.22

44. Consider the following events: E1: Getting 5 or 6 in single throw of a die
E2 : Getting 1, 2, 3 or 4 in single throw of a die
2 1 4 2
P( E1 )   P( E2 )  
6 3 6 3
P(A/E1) = Prob getting exactly one head when coin is tossed 3 times
= 3C1 (1/2)(1/2)(1/2) = 3/8
P(A/E2) = Prob of getting exactly one head when coin is tossed once = ½

14
 Answer Key
2022-2023
2 1
P( E2 ) P ( A / E2 ) 
 P( E2 / A)   3 2  8
P( E1 ) P ( A / E1 )  P ( E2 ) P( A / E2 ) 1 3 1 2 11
  
3 8 2 3
45.
  2
  1
P  A B   , P A  B   P A P  B  
  15 6
  2
15
 
AND P  A  P B 
1
6

1  P  A  P  B   152 and P  A 1  P  B    16
2 1
 1  x  y  ....(1) and x 1  y   where P  A   x, P  B   y
15 6
1  1  2
x  1   y  ( Substituting in (1))
6 1  y  
 6 1  y   15
 5  6y  2
  y  25 y  30 y 2  4  4 y  30 y 2  29 y  4  0
 6 1  y   15
 
 30 y 2  5 y  24 y  4  0  5 y  6 y  1  4  6 y  1  0   6 y  1 5 y  4   0
1 1 1 1 4 1 1 5
y x    or y   x   
6 6 1  y   1 5 5 6 1  y   4 6
6 1   6 1  
 6  5
1 1 5 4
 P  A   , P  B   OR P  A   , P  B  
5 6 6 5

46. Let E1 be the event that a no. greater than 4 occurs and E2 be the event that no greater
than 4 doesnot occur.
2 1 2
P(E1) =  P(E2) =
6 3 3
Let A be the event that man throws a die and reports it is a number greater than 4.

  3
 
P A / E1  P  Man speaks the truth   , P A / E2  P  Man speaks a lie  
5
2
5
P ( E1 )  P ( A / E1 )
 reqd . prob.  P( E1 / A) 
P ( E1 )  P ( A / E1 )  P ( E2 )  P ( A / E2 )
1 3

3 5 3 3
  
1 3 2 2 3 4 7
  
3 5 3 5

47. Let E1 be the event that Bag I is chosen

E2 be the event that Bag II is chosen
E3, be the event that Bag III is chosen
1
P(E1) = P ( E2) = P(E3) =
3
A : Event of choosing 1 white and 1 red ball from the bag

15
 Answer Key
2022-2023
1
C1  C1 3
3 1
2
C1  1C1 2
P( A / E1 )  6
  , P ( A / E2 )  7
 ,
C2 15 5 C2 21
4
C1  3C1 43 2
P( A / E3 )  12
 
C2 66 11
P( A / E2 ). P ( E2 )
P( E2 / A) 
P( A / E1 )  P( E1 )  P( A / E2 )  P( E2 )  P( A / E3 )  P( E3 )
1 2 1 2
 
3 21 3 21 2 11  5  21 110
    
1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 21 551 551
        
3 5 3 21 3 11 3  5 21 11 

48. Consider the events: E1 : A is selected, E2: B is selected, E3: C is selected

  4
 
= P E1  , P E2  , P E3 
7
1
7
2
7
 
Let A be the event of making a change
P(E2/A) + P(E3/A) = ?
P(A/E1) = 0.3 P(A/E2) = 0.8 , P(A/E3) = 0.

 P( E2 / A) 
  P E2 P ( E2 / A)
P  E  P (A/ E )  P  E  P (A/ E )  P  E  P (A/ E )
1 1 2 2 3 3

1 0.8 0.8
 0.8
 7  7  7
1 4 2 0.8 1.2 1 3
 0.8   0.3   0.5  
7 7 7 7 7 7 7
0.8 8 4
  
3 30 15

P( E3 / A) 
  P E3 P (A/ E3 )
P  E  P (A/ E )  P  E  P (A/ E )  P  E  P (A/ E )
1 1 2 2 3 3

2 1
 0.5
7 7 1
  
2 1 4 1 0.8 1.2 3
 0.5   0.8   0.3  
7 7 7 7 7 7
4 1 9 3
 Re qd . prob.  P( E2 / A)  P( E3 / A)    
15 3 15 5

49. Consider the following events:

E1: Box I is selected, E2: Box II is selected, E3: Box III is selected
   
P E1  P E2  P E3    1
3
A: Coin drawn is a gold coin

16
 Answer Key
2022-2023

  
P A / E1  1, P A / E2  0, P A / E3     1
2
 
P(E1 ) P A / E1
Re qd . Pr ob.  P E1 / A   
P  A / E   P(E ) P  A / E 
 
P(E1 ) P A / E1  P(E 2 ) 2 3 3

1 1
1
3 1 6 2
  3   
1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3
1   0  
3 3 3 2 6
50. Consider the events: E1 : Bag A is selected, E2: Bag B is selected

  1
P E1   P E2
2
 
Let A be the event that 2 white and 1 red ball is drawn
P(E2/A) + P(E3/A) = ?
P(A/E1) = 0.3 P(A/E2) = 0.8 , P(A/E3) = 0.
3  4 12 C 3C 6  3 18
3
C2 4C1 4

P(A/ E1 )  7
C3

35 35

 , P A / E2  7 2 1 
C3
 
35 35

 
1 18

P E2 P(A/ E2 )
2 35 18 3
 P( E2 / A)    
   
P E1 P(A/ E1 )  P E2 P (A/ E2 ) 1  12  1  18 30 5
2 35 2 35

51. Total number of ways of selecting 3 numbers out of first six positive integers= 6C3 = 20
x: 1 2 3 4
10 6 3 1
P(x)
20 20 20 20
10 12 9 4
xp(x)
20 20 20 20
10 24 27 16
x2p(x)
20 20 20 20
35 7
Mean =  x p(x)  
20 4
52. Let E1 be the event that Bag I is chosen
E2 be the event that Bag II is chosen
E3, be the event that Bag III is chosen
  i 1
 
P Ei   P E1  , P E2  , P E3 
6 6
2
6
3
6
   
R : Event that red ball is selected from the bag, W: Event that white ball is selected

17
 Answer Key
2022-2023
3 2
P ( R / E1 )   1, P ( R / E2 )  , P ( R / E3 )  0
3 3
  
I ) P  R   P R  E1  P R  E2  P R  E3   
 P ( R / E1 ) P ( E1 )  P ( R / E2 ) P ( E2 )  P ( A / E3 ) P ( E3 )
1 2 2 3 7
 1     0 
6 6 3 6 18
1
II ) P (W / E1 )  0, P (W / E2 )  , P (W / E3 )  1
3
  
P W   P W  E1  P W  E2  P W  E3   
 P (W / E1 ) P ( E1 )  P (W / E2 ) P ( E2 )  P (W / E3 ) P( E3 )
1 2 1 3 11
  0    1 
6 6 3 6 18
3
 
P (W / E3 ) P ( E3 ) 9
III ) P E3 / W   6 
P (W / E1 ) P ( E1 )  P (W / E2 ) P ( E2 )  P (W / E3 ) P ( E3 ) 11 11
18

53. Consider the events: E1: Lost card is spade, E2: Lost card is non-spade
A: 3 Cards drawn from remaining are all spades

12 13
13 1 3 C3 12 1110 C 13 12 11
P( E1 )   , P( E2 )  , P( A / E1 )  51  , P( A / E2 )  51 3 
52 4 4 C3 51 50  49 C3 51 50  49
P( E1 )  P( A / E1 )
 reqd . prob.  P( E1 / A) 
P( E1 )  P ( A / E1 )  P( E2 )  P( A / E2 )
1 12 1110

 4 51 50  49 
10

10
1 12 1110 3 13  12  11 10  39 49
  
4 51 50  49 4 51 50  49

54. Let E1 ,E2 and E3 be the events that 4 balls in urn are white, 3 balls in urn are white , 2
balls in urn are white. Let A be the event that two balls drawn at random from the urn are
both white.
  1    
P E    P E   P E 
 1 3  2  3
3 2
    C2 3 1   C2 1
P  A / E   1, P  A / E   4   , P  A / E   4 
 1  2  C2 6 2  3 C2 6

 By Bay es theorem.
P ( A / E1 )  P( E1 )
= P( E1 / A) 
P( A / E1 ) . P ( E1 )  P( A / E2 )  P( E2 )  P( A / E3 )  P( E3 )

18
 Answer Key
2022-2023
1
1
3 6 3
  
1 1 1 1 1 10 5
1    
3 3 2 3 6

 
55. 4 1 8
P  getting a total of 9   P  S    ,P S 
36 9 9
If A starts first he may win in 1st or 4th or 7th. or ...throw
   
P  A wins   P  S   P S S SS  P S S S S S SS  ...
1
3 6
1 8 1 8 1 9 81
        ...  
9 9 9 9 9 8
3
217
1  
9
If A starts first B may win in 2nd or 5th or 8th. or ...throw
    
P  B wins   P SS  P S S S SS  P S S S S S S SS  ... 
8
4 7
81 8 1 8 1 81  72
          ... 
99 9 9 9 9
3
8 217
1  
9
81 72 217  153 64
P  C wins   1  P  A wins   P  B wins   1    
217 217 217 217

56. Consider the events: E1: Transferred balls are both red, E2: Transferred ball are 1 black and 1
red and E3: Transferred balls are both black
A: Ball drawn fron bag B is red
3 5 3 5
  C 3   C C 15   C 10
P E   8 2  , P  E   81 1  ,P E   8 2 
 1 C2 28  2  C2 28  3  C2 28
  6   5   4
P A / E  , P A / E   , P A / E  
 1  10  2  10  3  10

P ( A / E1 ) P( E1 )
reqd . prob.  P( E1 / A) 
P( A / E1 ) P ( E1 )  P( A / E2 ) P( E2 )  P( A / E3 ) P( E3 )
6 3

10 28 18 18
  
6 3 5 15 4 10 18  75  40 133
    
10 28 10 28 10 28

57. Consider the events: E1:Coin tossed is fair, E2: Coin tossed is unfair
A: toss results in a head

19
 Answer Key
2022-2023
n 1 n 1
P( E1 )  , P( E2 )  , P( A / E1 )  , P( A / E2 )  1
2n  1 2n  1 2
31 31 1  n  1   n  31
P  A   P ( E1 ) P ( A / E1 )  P ( E2 ) P ( A / E2 )      1 
42 42 2  2n  1   2n  1  42
n  1  2n 31
   21 3n  1  31 2n  1  63n  21  62n  31  n  10
2  2n  1 42

58. Consider the events: E1: Letter comes from TATANAGAR

E2: Letter comes from CALCUTTA
A: Two consecutive letters TA are visible
1 1 2 1
P( E1 )  , P( E2 )  , P( A / E1 )  , P( A / E2 ) 
2 2 8 7
1 2 1

 
P( E1 ) P( A / E1 ) 2 8 7
 reqd . prob.  P E1 / A    4 
P( E1 ) P( A / E1 )  P( E2 ) P( A / E2 ) 1 2 1 1 11 11
  
2 8 2 7 28

 
59. 3 4
P  A co min g in time   P  A   ,P A 
7 7
5
 
P  B co min g in time   P  B   , P B 
7
2
7
       
P  Only one of them co min g in time   p A  B  P A  B  P  A  P B  P A P  B 
3 2 4 5 26
    
7 7 7 7 49
60. Consider the events: E1: Student chosen has 100% attendance
E2: Student chosen is irregular
A: Student chosen has an A grade
30 3 70 7 70 7 10 1
P( E1 )   , P( E2 )   , P( A / E1 )   , P( A / E2 )  
100 10 100 10 100 10 100 10
3 7

 
P( E1 ) P( A / E1 ) 10 10 21 3
reqd . prob.  P E1 / A    
P( E1 ) P( A / E1 )  P( E2 ) P( A / E2 ) 3 7 7 1 28 4
  
10 10 10 10

61. Let X denotes the no of people who speak truth out of 2 people drawn at random. Then X can
take values 0,1,2

20
 Answer Key
2022-2023
10
C2 10  9 3 C1 20C1 10  20 40
10 20
C2 20  19
P  X  0    , P  X  1    , P  X  2   
30
C2 30  29 29 30
C2 15  29 87 30
C2 30  29
Pr ob. distribution of X is
X: 0 2 1
3 38 40
P X  :
29 87 87
76 40
XP  X  : 0
87 87
116 4
MEAN   XP  X   
87 3

62. Consider the events: E1: Person follows a course of meditation and yoga
E2: Person follows the prescription of certain drug
A: Person gets a heart attack
1 1 70 40 28 30
P( E1 )  , P( E2 )  , P( A / E1 )  70% of 40%    , P( A / E2 )  75% of 40% 
2 2 100 100 100 100
1 28

 
P( E1 ) P( A / E1 ) 2 100 28 14
reqd . prob.  P E1 / A    
P( E1 ) P( A / E1 )  P( E2 ) P( A / E2 ) 1 28 1 30 58 29
  
2 100 2 100

63. 1
P  getting a six   P  S  
6
,P S   
5
6
If A starts first he may win in 1st or 3rd or 5th. or ...throw
   
P  A wins   P  S   P S SS  P S S S SS  ...
1
2 4
1 5 1 5 1 6 6
        ...  
6 6 6 6 6 5
2
11
1  
6
6 5
P  B wins   1  P  A wins   1  
11 11
64. Consider the following events:
D1 : Patient has disease d1
D2: Patient has disease d2
D3: Patient has disease d3
S : Patient shows symptom S

21
 Answer Key
2022-2023
3200 32 3500 35 3300 33
P(D1 )   , P(D 2 )   , P(D3 )  
10000 100 10000 100 10000 100
31 33
P(S/ D1 )  , P(S/ D 2 )  , P S / D3 
32 35
 
30
33
P(D1 ) . P(S/ D1 )
P(D1 / S) 
P(D1 ) . P(S/ D1 )  P(D 2 ) . P(S/ D 2 )  P(D3 ) P(S/ D3 )
32 31

 100 32  0.33
32 31 35 33 33 30
    
100 32 100 32 100 33
SIMILARLY P(D 2 / S)  0.35, P(D3 / S)  0.32

65. Consider the events: E1: Person has cancer

E2: Person doesnot have cancer
A: Person is diagnosed with cancer
1 999
P( E1 )  , P ( E2 )  , P( A / E1 )  0.99, P( A / E2 )  0.001
1000 1000

 
P( E1 ) P( A / E1 )
reqd . prob.  P E1 / A 
P( E1 ) P( A / E1 )  P( E2 ) P( A / E2 )
1
 0.99
1000 0.99 0.99 990 110
    
1
 0.99 
999
 0.001 0.99  0.999 1.989 1989 221
1000 1000

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