Solution Manual for The Essentials of Political

Analysis, 6th Edition, Philip H. Pollock, Barry C.

Edwards

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Solution Manual for The Essentials of Political Analysis, 6th Edition, Philip H. Pollock, Ba

Pollock, The Essentials of Political Analysis, 6e

CQ Press, 2020

Instructor Manual
Chapter 5: Making Controlled Comparisons

Learning Objectives

1. How controlled comparisons rule out rival causes

2. Three possible scenarios for the relationship between an independent variable and a
dependent variable, controlling for a rival cause
3. How to set up controlled comparisons using cross-tabulation analysis and mean
comparison analysis
4. How to construct line charts of the relationship between an independent variable and a
dependent variable, while holding a control variable constant
5. How to identify spurious relationships, additive relationships, or interaction
relationships in empirical data

Chapter Summary

This chapter examines how to make controlled comparisons between two or more
groups. An uncontrolled comparison may show a relationship between an independent
variable and a dependent variable at the zero-order level, which means we have not ruled
out alternative explanations yet. Once we add control variables to the mix, we need to
figure out what kind of relationship exists between the independent variable and the
dependent variable. There are three possibilities. First, the relationship could be spurious
and disappear when the control variable is included. Second, it could be additive, which
means the independent variable and the control variable are working together to cause the
observed effect on the dependent variable. Third, the relationship could be interactive,
which means the direction or strength of the relationship changes across categories of the
control variable.

To determine which of these three possibilities is present, we can ask the following
three questions of our results:
1. After holding the control variable constant, does a relationship exist between the
independent variable and the dependent variable within at least one value of the
control variable?
▪ If the answer is no, then the relationship is spurious. If the answer is yes,
then go to question 2.
2. Is the direction of the relationship between the independent variable and the

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 Pollock, The Essentials of Political Analysis, 6e
CQ Press, 2020
dependent variable the same at all values of the control variable?
▪ If the answer is no, then interaction is taking place. If the answer is yes,
then go to question 3.
3. Is the strength of the relationship between the independent variable and the
dependent variable the same or very similar at all values of the control variable?
▪ If we are able to answer yes, the relationship is additive. If the answer is
no, the relationship is interactive.

Discussion Questions

1. Suppose you are interested in studying the variables that affect an individual’s
decision to vote or not to vote. Think of an independent variable that might
predict the likelihood of an individual voting or not voting. What are some rival
explanations for voting or not voting that you might need to rule out?
2. Suppose a researcher is studying the causes of civil wars. Name an independent
variable that could explain the presence of a civil war. What are some rival
explanations you may need to rule out?

Introduction
• In this chapter, we use empirical data to illustrate the practice of controlled
comparison.
• The procedures for setting up controlled comparisons are natural extensions of
procedures you learned in Chapter 3 for making comparisons with cross-tabulations
and mean comparisons.
• There are three logical scenarios: a spurious relationship, a set of additive
relationships, or interaction.

The Logic of Controlled Comparisons

• Rival explanations undermine researcher’s ability to evaluate the effect of the
independent variable on the dependent variables.
• Nonrandom processes create compositional differences between the partisan
groups.
• A compositional difference is any characteristic that varies across categories of an
independent variable.
• The controlled comparison design allows the researcher to observe the effect of the
independent variable on the dependent variable while holding constant other
plausible causes of the dependent variable.
• When testing the effect of an independent variable on a dependent variable,
researchers do two things.
▪ First, we make the comparison suggested by our hypothesis.
 Pollock, The Essentials of Political Analysis, 6e
CQ Press, 2020
▪ Second, we make a controlled comparison. A controlled comparison is
accomplished by examining the relationship between an independent
and a dependent variable, while holding constant other variables
suggested by rival explanations and hypotheses.
• Once we hold a rival variable constant, we can remove it from the list of rival
explanations for variation in the dependent variable.
• That is the elemental logic of controlled comparison.

Essential Terms and Concepts

• A difference obtained from a simple comparison is called a zero-order relationship.
▪ Also known as a gross relationship or an uncontrolled relationship.
▪ A zero-order relationship is an overall association between two variables
that does not take into account other possible differences between the
cases being studied.
▪ Cross-tabulations and mean comparison tables are all examples.
▪ Zero-order relationships always invite the “how else?” question.
• A confounder is a pretreatment variable that is related to both the treatment and
the outcome.
▪ If the treatment is not randomly assigned and subjects can self-select into
the treatment group, self-selection would be a cofounder.
▪ Outside the experimental context, it’s impossible to rule out
confounders.
• When the dependent variable is measured at the nominal or ordinal level, the
researcher uses a controlled comparison table (also called a controlled cross-
tabulation).
▪ A controlled comparison table presents a cross-tabulation between an
independent variable and a dependent variable for each value of the
control variable.
• Controlled effects are summarized by a partial relationship or partial effect.
▪ A partial relationship or partial effect summarizes a relationship between
two variables after accounting for a rival variable.
▪ A controlled comparison illuminates two sets of relationships.
▪ First, it reveals the controlled effects of the independent variable on
the dependent variable. A controlled effect is a relationship between
a causal variable and a dependent variable within one value of another
causal variable.
▪ Second, it permits us to describe the effects of the control variable on
the dependent variable at each value of the independent variable.
• Line charts are especially useful for lending clarity and simplicity to controlled
comparison relationships.
• Three things can happen when a variable is held constant:
 Pollock, The Essentials of Political Analysis, 6e
CQ Press, 2020
▪ First, in a spurious relationship, the control variable defines a large
compositional difference across values of the independent variable.
▪ Second, in an additive relationship, the control variable is a cause of the
dependent variable but defines a small compositional difference across
values of the independent variable.
▪ In an interaction relationship, the relationship between the independent
variable and the dependent variable depends on the value of the control
variable.

Effect of Partisanship on Gun Control Vote, Controlling for Gender: An Illustrative Example
• Figure 5-1 depicts the hypothetical legislature’s vote on a gun control bill. Democrats
(represented by the circles on the left) and Republicans (the circles on the right).
• The goal in this analysis is to determine whether variation in legislators’ partisanship
affected how they voted on the gun control bill.
• The first look at the data supports the partisanship explanation. The authors cannot
regard these findings as confirming the correctness of the partisanship explanation.
• Democrats and Republicans might differ in a number of ways. Consider a rival to the
partisanship explanation.
• The gender explanation describes a general causal process and suggests the existence
of several empirical relationships.
• In the hypothetical example, the gender composition of the parties profoundly
influences our assessment of the effect of partisanship on the gun control vote.
• See text and figures in text pertaining to this example including examples on
spurious relationships, additive relationships, and interactive relationships.

Controlled Mean Comparisons

• This section provides two examples of controlled mean comparisons.
• The difference between these examples and the preceding example of a gun control
vote is the level of measurement of the dependent variable.
• When we analyze an interval-level dependent variable that’s measured with
precision, its value can be summarized by calculating its mean and can compare the
variable’s values in different subgroups by finding the variable’s mean in each
subgroup.
• The first example in this section illustrates additive relationships. The second is an
example of interaction.
 Pollock, The Essentials of Political Analysis, 6e
CQ Press, 2020
Party Identification, Age, an Attitude About Homosexuals: Example of an Additive
Relationship
• Hypothesis: In a comparison of individuals, Democrats will hold more positive feeling
toward gays than will Republicans.
• The example analyzes the relationship between party identification and attitudes
about gays and lesbians, controlling for age.
• See text and figures in text pertaining to this example.

Electoral Systems, Culture, and Women in Legislatures: Example of an Interactive

Relationship
• Hypothesis: In a comparison of countries, countries that have proportional
representation (PR) electoral systems will have higher percentages of women in
their legislatures than will countries that do not have PR electoral systems.
• See text and figures in text pertaining to this example.

Identifying Patterns
• After controlling for a potentially confounding variable, three scenarios are possible:
a spurious relationship, an additive relationship, or an interactive relationship.
▪ In a spurious relationship, after holding the control variable constant,
the relationship between the independent variable and the
dependent variable weakens or disappears. Spurious relationships are
not always identified so easily.
▪ In a set of additive relationships, the direction and strength of the
relationship between the independent variable and the dependent
variable is the same or very similar at all values of the control
variable. All additive relationships have a straightforward,
symmetrical quality.
▪ In a set of interaction relationships, the direction or strength of the
relationship between the independent variable and the dependent
variable is different, depending on the value of the control variable.
Crossed lines provide dead giveaway certainty and add visual flair, but
they are not required.

Advanced Methods of Making Controlled Comparisons

• There are situations where applying the logic of the controlled comparison to
observational data may require more advanced methods of making controlled
comparisons.
• Examples include:
 Pollock, The Essentials of Political Analysis, 6e
CQ Press, 2020
▪ If the sample is large enough, the researcher can separate
observations by the values of more than one control variable and
analyze the relationship between X and Y in each subgroup.
▪ When researchers need to control for more than one rival
explanation to analyze the effect of an independent variable, they will
often use multiple regression analysis.
▪ Researchers also use matching methods to make controlled
comparisons when there is more than one rival explanation. Matching
methods attempt to replicate random assignment in an observational
setting.
▪ If the researcher is aware of rival explanations that need to be
controlled for, it may be possible to employ statistical controls.
• The difference-in-differences (DID) design is a variation on a
before-and-after comparison that researchers can use when
they suspect that variables other than the independent
variable have changed in the before and after time periods
but these “other factors” are numerous or not clearly known.

Exercises

1. A researcher is studying partisan attitudes regarding social welfare spending and

finds that 71 percent of Democrats think the government should spend more on
social welfare while 44 percent of Republicans think the government should spend
more on social welfare. When controlling for gender, the researcher notices that
both Democratic and Republican women are about 11 percentage points more
supportive of social welfare spending than are men. What type of relationship has
the researcher found between the independent variable and the dependent
variable? Why?
2. A researcher is studying the media consumption habits of men and women while
controlling for partisanship. She finds that men are 24 percentage points more likely
to watch particular news broadcasts than are women. When controlling for
partisanship, she finds that Republican men are 32 percentage points more likely to
watch particular news broadcasts than are Democratic men. She also finds that
Republican women are 6 percentage points more likely to watch particular news
broadcasts than are Democratic women. What relationship has the researcher found
and why?

Web Resources
Solution Manual for The Essentials of Political Analysis, 6th Edition, Philip H. Pollock, Ba

Pollock, The Essentials of Political Analysis, 6e

CQ Press, 2020
1. Examine the poll at http://www.gallup.com/poll/184160/republicans-approval-
supreme-court-
sinks.aspx?utm_source=POLITICS&utm_medium=topic&utm_campaign=tiles. What
rival explanations should the pollster account for when measuring attitudes about
the Supreme Court?
2. Visit http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/24/showbiz/game-of-thrones-america/ and
review the comparison between America and Game of Thrones. Is this a zero-order
comparison? Why or why not?
3. Visit http://sda.berkeley.edu/sdaweb/analysis/?dataset=nes2012 and produce your
own cross-tabulation using an independent variable such as age or gender and a
dependent variable such as support for abortion rights, gun control, and so on and
examine the results. Now add a control for partisanship. Do the results change? If
so, how and why?

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