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Sunarto, 1Mega L. Syamsuddin, 2Helditha G. M. Sampeliling, 2Hammami
U. Faiz, 1Yuniarti MS, 1Buntora Pasaribu
1
Department of Marine Sciences, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Sciences, Universitas
Padjadjaran, 45363 Jatinangor, Sumedang, Indonesia; 2 Marine Science Study Program,
Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, 45363 Jatinangor,
Sumedang, Indonesia. Corresponding author: Sunarto, sunarto@unpad.ac.id
Abstract. This research utilized satellite-derived environmental variables to analyze the relationship
between oceanographic conditions and yellowfin tuna (YFT) catch and to predict the ecological
preferences of YFT catch in the southern Java off the Indian Ocean. Data used include monthly sea
surface temperature, chlorophyll-a concentration, salinity, ocean current and fish catch from January
2016-December 2020 (five-year datasets). All datasets are processed using the Maximum Entropy
(MaxEnt) model to understand the environmental factors influencing catch variability and distributions.
The MaxEnt model analysis results show that all parameters have an influence on YFT catch results, with
sea surface temperature being the most influential parameter at 49.04% contribution, followed by
chlorophyll-a (36.12%), salinity (11.07%), and currents (3.77%), respectively. The environmental
preferences for YFT catch based on MaxEnt analysis and spatial distribution map of oceanographic
conditions overlaid with catch (CPUE) are SST ranging from 28.5°C to 29°C; chlorophyll-a ranging from
0.01 to 0.5 mg/m3; salinity ranging from 34 to 34.4 psu; and currents ranging from 0.01 to 0.1 m/s.
The evaluation of the MaxEnt model showed an AUC value of 0.948, indicating excellent model
performance to predict the habitat suitability of YFT in the Southern Java off Indian Ocean.
Introduction. In 2018, Indonesia ranked second in the world regarding capture fisheries
production. This data indicates that Indonesia has great potential in the fisheries
industry. One of the thriving fisheries industries in Indonesia is the tuna fishery. Tuna
fishing significantly contributes to the Indonesian economy (FAO 2020). The estimation of
the largest group of fishery resources potential in Fisheries Management Area (FMA) 573
is large pelagic fish such as skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis), bullet tuna (Euthynnus
sp), yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacore), Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus spp.), with
an average catch of 182,034 tons per year during the period of 2005-2014 (KKP 2016).
According to IOTC (2021), the average catch of yellowfin tuna (YFT) from 2016-
2020 ranges from 434,388 tons per year. The estimated potential of yellowfin tuna in the
Indian Ocean based on Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) is 349,000 tons per year with a
range of 286,000 - 412,000 tons per year. This value indicates that yellowfin tuna fishing
activity is categorized as overfishing. Understanding environmental preferences such as
yellowfin tuna's oceanographic characteristics is crucial to avoid overfishing (Nimit et al
2020).
Mapping the distribution area of yellowfin tuna is done using the Maximum
Entropy (MaxEnt) model introduced by (Phillips, et al., 2004) as a general approach for
species distribution modeling. The main principle of MaxEnt estimates the probability of
species distribution by finding subjects (pixels) with maximum entropy and calculating
the values of other pixels in the study area (Phillips, et al., 2006).
This study aims to determine the relationship between sea surface temperature
variability, chlorophyll-a, salinity, and ocean currents to yellowfin tuna catch in the Indian
Ocean, resulting in a predictive model map of fishing areas.
Description of the study sites. The research was conducted in the southern part of the
Indian Ocean, specifically in the waters of Java, with coordinates ranging from 7°0' S -
11°0' S and 100°0 E - 108°0'00" E (Figure 1). Data used in the study included sea
surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll-a obtained from oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov,
salinity, and currents obtained from the marine.copernicus.eu, as well as yellowfin tuna
(YFT), catch data obtained from the logbooks of PPN Pelabuhanratu.
Figure 1. The research location map is located in the South Indian Ocean near Java.
Data Used. The data used in this study covers 5 years, from 2016 to 2020. Satellite
data for sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll-a concentration, salinity, and
currents were downloaded from January 2016 to December 2020 and used as input data
for the MaxEnt model. Yellowfin tuna catch data were obtained from the logbooks of PPN
Pelabuhan Ratu, Kab. Sukabumi, covering the same period as the satellite data (Table 1).
Resolution
No. Parameter Unit Tempor Sources
Spatial
al
https://
2. Chlorophyll-a mg/m3 Monthly 4 km x 4 km
oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov
https://
3. Salinity psu Monthly 40 km
marinecopernicus.eu
https://
4. Currents m/s Monthly 8 km
marinecopernicus.eu
Logbook PPN
5. Yellowfin Tuna kg/trip
Pelabuhanratu
Oceanic Data Processing. Sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a data were
downloaded from https://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/. The downloaded data was monthly
with a spatial resolution of 4 km x 4 km in NetCDF (.nc) format. Salinity and currents
data were downloaded from the website https://marine.copernicus.eu/. The downloaded
data were also monthly with a spatial resolution of 9 km x 9 km in NetCDF (.nc) format.
The data obtained were then processed using ArcMap. The data were interpolated and
resampled to ensure consistent size and resolution for all data. Subsequently,
visualizations were generated for temporal and spatial analysis.
Yellowfin Tuna Data Processing. Yellowfin tuna (YFT) data were obtained from the
logbooks of PPN Pelabuhan Ratu, Kab. Sukabumi. The obtained data included catch data
and fishing position data. Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) was calculated from the YFT catch
data. The YFT data were processed to create monthly average CPUE graphs for the period
of 2016 - 2020 for temporal visualization and used for predicting the fishing area using
the MaxEnt model. The formula used to calculate CPUE was based on Gulland (1983).
Catch i
CPUE= ; i=1 , 2 ,3 , … n
Effort i
Note:
CPUE = catch per unit effort
Catchi = catch
Effort i = effort
Data Analysis. The research data were analyzed using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt)
model. The MaxEnt model analyzes the relationship between the YFT data obtained from
the logbooks of PPN Pelabuhanratu and oceanographic parameters (sea surface
temperature, chlorophyll-a, salinity, and currents). The MaxEnt model was developed
from the processing of catch data in .xls and .csv formats, as well as oceanographic
Results. The monthly mean of CPUE from the year of 2016-2020 are shown in Figure 2.
The CPUE varied temporally relatively over the year-round. The total catch of YFT landed
at PPN Pelabuhanratu from 2016 to 2020 was 3,204.88 tons, with an average CPUE value
of 57.9 kg/trip. The highest average CPUE value occurred in 2020 at 95.31 kg/trip, while
the lowest value occurred in 2016 at 27.06 kg/trip.
180
160
140
120
CPUE (kg/trip)
100 2016
2017
80 2018
2019
60 2020
Average
40
20
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
month
Figure 2. Temporal Distribution of Yellowfin Tuna CPUE from 2016 to 2020 (bar chart)
and Monthly Average (line)
Based on the data, the average CPUE values fluctuate and form patterns/trends in
each season. The highest average CPUE value occurs in December (northwest monsoon)
at 77.74 kg/trip, and the lowest value occurs in March (transition season I) at 44.30
kg/trip. Based on the average CPUE values, the catch rate decreases during transition
season I and increases during the east monsoon season, with the peak in July at 70.60
kg/trip. During transition season II, there is a decrease in September and then an
increase again during the northwest monsoon season, with a peak in December at 77.74
kg/trip.
30.00
29.00
27.00
26.00
25.00
24.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Figure 3. Mean monthly of Sea Surface Temperature in South Java from 2016 to 2020.
Vertical error bars represents standard deviation.
From 2016 to 2020, the average distribution of sea surface temperature (SST) in
Southern Java waters experienced significant fluctuations. The highest average SST
distribution occurred during the transition season I, ranging from 29.15℃ to 30.46℃, with
the highest value occurring in March at 30.46℃. On the other hand, the transition season
II had the lowest average distribution, ranging from 26.67℃ to 28.31℃, with the lowest
average occurring in September at 26.67℃. September had the largest standard
deviation compared to other months, which explains the high level of fluctuation during
that month.
0.4
Chlorophyll-a (mg/m3)
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
34.35
34.3
34.25
Salinity (psu)
34.2
34.15
34.1
34.05
34
33.95
33.9
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Figure 5. Temporal Distribution of Average Salinity in South Java from 2016 to 2020.
Error bars represent standard deviation.
From 2016 to 2020, the average distribution of salinity in Southern Java waters
experienced significant fluctuations. The highest average salinity concentration occurred
in January at 34.3 psu, while the lowest average occurred in May at 34.07 psu.
December had the most significant standard deviation compared to other months,
indicating the magnitude of fluctuation.
Current Velocity Distribution. The average current velocity in Southern Java waters
during the period of 2016-2020 varied in value. The values of current speed in Southern
Java waters are presented in Figure 6.
Current (m/s)
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Figure 6. Temporal Distribution of Average Current Velocity in South Java from 2016 to
2020. Error bars represent standard deviation.
From 2016 to 2020, the average velocity of the current in the waters of Southern
Java ranged from 0.14 m/s to 0.21 m/s. The highest increase in current speed was
observed during transition period II, ranging from 0.18 m/s to 0.21 m/s. The highest
average velocity of the current occurred in September, reaching 0.21 m/s. On the other
hand, the lowest average speed of the current was observed during the western monsoon
period, ranging from 0.14 m/s to 0.17 m/s, with the lowest value occurring in January at
0.14 m/s. Meanwhile, October exhibited the highest standard deviation compared to
other months, indicating significant fluctuations during that month. The current velocity
in the waters of Southern Java tends to be stronger during the eastern monsoon to
transition season II, while it is weaker during the western monsoon (Yoga et al., 2014).
The model performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic
(ROC) curve, with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.948. AUC value > 0.9
indicates excellent model performance with high predictive success (Phillips et al., 2006).
The ROC curve shows a red line representing 75% of the data used for model training
and a blue line for testing the model with 25% of the data. The x-axis represents
specificity, and the y-axis represents sensitivity. Information on the contribution of each
oceanographic parameter to MaxEnt prediction is presented in Table 2.
The study results showed that the most influential parameter on the Yellowfin
Tuna (YFT) catch is sea surface temperature (SST), followed by chlorophyll-a, salinity,
and current. Based on Table 2, sea surface temperature is the most influential
oceanographic parameter in the model, contributing to 49.04%. On the other hand, the
current is the least significant parameter, with a contribution of 3.77%. The contribution
values for chlorophyll-a and salinity are 36.12% and 11.07%, respectively. Similar
results were found by Syah et al. (2020), which showed that SST has the highest
contribution at 50.5%.
The optimal salinity values for the YFT habitat based on the model are shown in
Figure 7a. The salinity response curve indicates that the catch locations are associated
with salinity values ranging from 34 to 34.4 psu, with an optimum salinity range of 34
psu. Tuna tend to prefer areas with salinity levels that match their body's osmotic
pressure, typically found in low salinity ranges of 32-35 psu (Syah et al., 2020). Bisby et
al. (2012) also state that the yellowfin tuna migration route is closely related to salinity.
Salinity is a crucial factor in regulating growth, metabolism, and various physiological
activities in fish (Katz et al., 2001).
The response curve (Figure 7b) shows that the optimal sea surface temperature
(SST) range for Yellowfin Tuna (YFT) habitat is between 28.5°C and 29°C. Previous
studies by Rajapaksha et al. (2013), Nimit et al. (2020), and Lan et al. (2017) also
reported similar findings, where the optimal temperature for YFT ranged from 25°C to
30°C. SST is the most crucial oceanographic parameter influencing YFT distribution, as it
affects their growth, activity, mobility, migration, and distribution (Syah et al., 2020;
Schaefer et al., 2007; Song et al., 2008; Tseng et al., 2010). Harahap et al. (2020)
stated that sea surface temperature significantly affects tuna fish's temporal and spatial
distribution. Seasonal variations in water temperature can affect migration, while inter-
annual SST fluctuations can affect tuna movement and fishing fleets (Lu et al., 2001).
The response curve for current velocity is shown in Figure 7c. The model suggests
that the optimal current speed for the YFT habitat ranges from 0.01 to 0.1 m/s. Similar
results were found by Swarnamalie et al. (2021), who reported a strong relationship
between current velocity below 4 m/s and CPUE (catch per unit effort) values. Although
the relationship is weak, surface currents affect surface temperature distribution and
migration of yellowfin tuna.
Prediction Map. Based on the Area Under Curve (AUC) values representing the model's
performance, the analysis and response curves of oceanographic parameters'
contribution to the prediction model, potential fishing zones for YFT can be identified. The
potential fishing zones are indicated by Habitat Suitability Index(HSI), where HSI ranges
from 0 (lowest/blue) to 1 (highest/red).
Figure 8. Spatial prediction of potential Yellowfin Tuna fishing zones overlaid with CPUE
values (green dots) in 2016.
The MaxEnt model generates predicted fishing catch areas which are then overlaid
with actual fishing locations. In 2016, it was the period with the lowest average YFT catch
results, ranging from 10 to 60 kg per trip. The spatial distribution of YFT catch predictions
can be observed from the varying HSI values. In 2016, areas with the highest HSI values
and the most comprehensive distribution occurred during the transition period from the
Figure 9. Spatial prediction of potential Yellowfin Tuna fishing zones overlaid with CPUE
values (green dots) in 2020.
In 2020, it was the period with the highest average catch results (63 - 169 kg per
trip). When looking at 2020 (Figure 9), fishing locations were relatively frequent in YFT
habitat areas according to the MaxEnt model, as indicated by the HSI values. The highest
catch results were obtained during the northwest monsoon season, with CPUE ranging
from 63 to 169 kg per trip. Meanwhile, during the transition season I had the lowest
catch results ranging from 70 to 80 kg per trip. Furthermore, during the eastern
monsoon and the transition season II, the CPUE values obtained were 77 - 98 kg per trip
and 98 - 102 kg per trip, respectively. Locations with optimal characteristics for YFT
habitat will impact CPUE values. Similar findings were reported by Rajapaksha et al.
(2013) in their study on YFT using the MaxEnt model.
The prediction map of YFT catch locations for 2016-2020 was generated from
several analyses in MaxEnt, as shown in Figure 10. The prediction map was obtained
Figure 10. Spatial prediction of Yellowfin Tuna fishing zone overlaid with fishing locations
(green dots) during 2016-2020
The predicted fishing location map of MaxEnt overlayed with green dots indicating
actual fishing locations have HSI values ranging from 0.4 to 1. The majority of fishing
activities are conducted at coordinates 7° S - 8°35' S and 106° E - 107° E, as well as at
coordinates 9° S - 9°45' S and 104° E - 105°30' E. Most of the fishing locations have HSI
values of 0.8 to 1, with higher HSI values observed at coordinates 8° S - 9°45' S and
104° E - 106°30' E.
The prediction of fish catch areas is influenced by sea surface temperature (SST),
chlorophyll-a concentration, salinity, and currents, which is supported by Syah (2016)
that fish productivity and distribution are affected by environmental changes such as
variation in sea surface temperature, currents, and salinity. SST has the strongest
influence in this study, as evidenced by its highest contribution to the model. The optimal
SST values in the predicted fishing areas range from 28.5°C to 29°C. Yellowfin tuna
prefer warmer waters, and their abundance is higher at sea surface temperatures above
25°C, mainly ranging from 28°C to 30°C (Stretta, 1991 in Rajapaksha et al., 2013). Sea
surface temperatures above 28°C form clear thermal pathways for YFT migration
(Zagaglia et al., 2004).
Conclusion. The analysis of the relationship between oceanographic conditions and YFT
catch using MaxEnt reveals that all parameters influence the catch, with SST contributing
the highest percentage at 49.04%, followed by chlorophyll-a (36.12%), salinity
(11.07%), and currents (3.77%). The optimal oceanographic parameter values for YFT
catch based on MaxEnt analysis and spatial distribution map of oceanographic conditions
overlaid with catch (CPUE) are SST ranging from 28.5°C to 29°C; chlorophyll-a ranging
from 0.01 to 0.5 mg/m3; salinity ranging from 34 to 34.4 psu; and currents ranging from
0.01 to 0.1 m/s The results of the MaxEnt model evaluation show an AUC value of 0.948,
indicating that the model can be categorized as very good.
Acknowledgments.
The authors thank Universitas Padjadjaran for providing research funding (HRU-RKDU),
Palabuhanratu Nusantara Fishery Port provided the fishery data and the Department of
Fisheries of Sukabumi, West Java for their valuable support. We also thank NASA’s Ocean
Color (https://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov), and Copernicus Marine Environmental
Monitoring Service (https://marine.copernicus.eu/) for the satellite datasets.
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