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WEM01 - Lecture 3 - Hydrology II
WEM01 - Lecture 3 - Hydrology II
Biodiversity loss
Population growth
Energy
Hydrology
Dr Gary Bilotta
Room C609
G.S.Bilotta@Brighton.ac.uk
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Resource availability
Flood risk
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PyDW4rlbnXs
Erosion risk
Head
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Q=VxA
Where:
V = velocity (m s-1) of moving water
A = cross-sectional area (m2) of flow
• It is resisted by friction, primarily at the water channel interface but also between
water and dissolved and suspended sediments (Dynamic viscosity), individual ribbons of
flow within the stream (Eddy viscosity) and with the atmosphere.
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Laminar flow occurs at low velocities in shallow streams with smooth channels, when
the lowest water lamina (thin layer) is retarded by the channel boundary friction.
Overlying lamina move successively faster past each other with a velocity maximum (vmax)
at the surface.
We can determine whether flow is laminar and turbulent using the Reynolds Number
(Re), which is dependent upon the relative value of:
Dynamic viscosity = the resistance to flow of a fluid (i.e. how viscous it is) - increases
directly with dissolved and suspended sediment load and inversely with temperature.
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• For this reason we commonly use stage height (water depth) as a proxy for discharge.
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_
V = V 0.2H + 2V 0.4H + V 0.8H
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Depth (m) 0.10 0.30 0.45 0.50 0.45 0.30 0.20 0.10
v v
v v v v
v
HOMEWORK TASK 1
•The ADCP uses the Doppler Effect to determine water velocity by sending a sound pulse
into the water and measuring the change in frequency of that sound pulse reflected back
to the ADCP by sediment or other particulates being transported in the water. The change
in frequency, or Doppler Shift, that is measured by the ADCP is translated into water
velocity.
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• Normally the ADCP is mounted onto a boat or into a small watercraft with its acoustic
beams directed into the water from the water surface. The ADCP is then guided across
the surface of the river to obtain measurements of velocity and depth across the
channel.
• In such circumstances, the velocity-area method can not be used. However, a well
suited technique for estimating the discharge in turbulent streams is provided by salt-
dilution gauging, where the discharge is determined by measuring the degree of dilution
by the flowing water of an added solution of sodium chloride.
• The most widely-used version of this method is referred to as the slug injection (gulp
injection) method where a slug or gulp of salt solution is emptied instantaneously into
the stream.
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Where:
K = constant with a value of 1
n = Manning’s n (dependent on channel roughness – see table of n values)
A = cross-sectional area of flow (m2)
P = wetted perimeter (m)
R = A/P
S = channel slope (m/m) Combining Manning’s
equation with the continuity
equation, the expression for
‘steady uniform flow’ can be
derived.
Source: Environment Agency (2011)
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Area, A (m2)= 12 m2
Wetted perimeter, P = 10 m
Slope S = 0.002
Manning’s n = 0.030 2m
Q= 12 *(1/0.030)*1.20.66*(0.002)0.5
Q= 20.2 m3 s-1 6m
Water Level
Idealised channel cross-section
1m
(2) What affect would channel straightening
and smoothing have on Q?
i.e. the channel becomes clean and straight with 1m 2m 0.5 m
no rifts or deep pools.
HOMEWORK TASK 2
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http://nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/
If we have a lot of data from previous years as well, then it is possible to combine all this into a
simple graph taking the mean of all the daily mean flows for Jan 1st, Jan 2nd Jan 3rd and so on. These
may be plotted on a graph. A log scale is useful for doing this, as this reduced the effect of large
difference between flows in dry and wet weather periods.
http://nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/
This fundamental plot is incredibly useful for a number of applications, e.g. calculating:
- proportion of time allowed for abstraction,
- potential for hydropower generation,
- channel design needed for a flood defence scheme or river restoration project.
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Step 1: Calculate number of daily values (n) in the record and then sort the average daily
discharges for the period of record from the largest value (first) to the smallest value
(last).
Step 2: Assign each discharge value a rank (M) starting with 1 for the largest daily
discharge value.
Step 3: Calculate percentage of time exceeded (P) for each daily discharge value using the
following equation:
P = 100 * [ M / (n + 1) ]
Where:
P = the % of time that a given flow will be equalled or exceeded
M = the ranked position in the listing
n = the total number of time-steps
Step 4: Plot the Flow Duration Curve (x axis is the percentage of time the indicated
discharge was exceeded; y axis is the discharge). You may want to try logging the Y axis.
HOMEWORK TASK 3
The first is to estimate the potential flood magnitude that can occur in a given time
interval.
http://stream2.cma.gov.cn/pub/comet/HydrologyFlooding/FloodFrequencyAnalysisInternationalEdition/comet/hydro/basic_int/flood_frequency/print.htm
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The second primary goal of flood frequency analysis is to estimate the return period for
a certain magnitude flood.
http://stream2.cma.gov.cn/pub/comet/HydrologyFlooding/FloodFrequencyAnalysisInternationalEdition/comet/hydro/basic_int/flood_frequency/print.htm
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http://stream2.cma.gov.cn/pub/comet/HydrologyFlooding/FloodFrequencyAnalysisInternationalEdition/comet/hydro/basic_int/flood_frequency/print.htm
= 100* m
n+1
The Flood Estimation Handbook is a good guide for selecting appropriate formulas
http://stream2.cma.gov.cn/pub/comet/HydrologyFlooding/FloodFrequencyAnalysisInternationalEdition/comet/hydro/basic_int/flood_frequency/print.htm
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http://stream2.cma.gov.cn/pub/comet/HydrologyFlooding/FloodFrequencyAnalysisInternationalEdition/comet/hydro/basic_int/flood_frequency/print.htm
http://stream2.cma.gov.cn/pub/comet/HydrologyFlooding/FloodFrequencyAnalysisInternationalEdition/comet/hydro/basic_int/flood_frequency/print.htm
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Estimates of flood return periods can be made with relatively short periods of record. But
the associated confidence level in the flood frequency statistics is much higher with a
longer period of data.
http://stream2.cma.gov.cn/pub/comet/HydrologyFlooding/FloodFrequencyAnalysisInternationalEdition/comet/hydro/basic_int/flood_frequency/print.htm
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Consequently, flood frequency statistics generated prior to the basin changes no longer apply.
Let's say the value "p" is the exceedance probability, in any given year. The exceedance
probability may be formulated simply as the inverse of the return period (or simply 1/T
*100 if you want to present it as a percentage)
For example, for a two-year return period the exceedance probability in any given year is
one divided by two = 0.5, or 50 %.
But we want to know how to calculate the exceedance probability for a period of years,
not just one given year. To do this, we use the formula
In this formula we consider all possible flows over the period of interest "n" and we can represent the whole set of flows with "1."
Then (1–p) is the chance of the flow not occurring, or the non–exceedance probability, for any given year.
(1–p)n is all the flows that are less than our flood of interest for the whole time period.
Finally, "1," all possible flows, minus (1–p)n, all flows during the time period than are lower than our flood of interest, leaves us with 1
– (1–p)n, the probability of those flows of interest occurring within the stated time period.
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This table shows the relationship between the return period, the annual exceedance
probability and the annual non–exceedance probability for any single given year.
We know that n = 50 since we are looking at a 50–year period of time and using the
probability of occurrence table we see that p=0.02 for a 50–year return period.
1 – (1 – 0.02)50 = 1 – (0.98)50
So, applying these values in the equation, the (1–p) value is (1–0.02), or 0.98.
= 1 – 0.36 = 0.64 or 64%
That means there is a 36% chance we won't see a 50–year flood in the 50–year period.
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http://evidence.environment-agency.gov.uk/FCERM/en/FluvialDesignGuide/Chapter2.aspx?pagenum=4
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Return periods give many people a false sense of security, partly because they are often
mistaken as absolutes instead of average frequencies. Also, people can easily misconstrue
the short- and long-term likelihoods of a severe event occurring.
The estimate is inevitably based on limited data. The shorter the record the lower
certainty there must be about estimating rare events or selecting the right model to fit.
Worse than this, because 50-year floods, or any others, can pop up any time, in practice
we are never sure that, say, a 20-year record does not contain a 50-year flood.
As cities and towns become more paved, the size and frequency of floods go up very
quickly. Remarkably, there are no standard approaches for correcting for urbanization
when estimating the 100-year flood.
http://evidence.environment-agency.gov.uk/FCERM/en/FluvialDesignGuide/Chapter2.aspx?pagenum=4
Design Events
It is difficult to estimate flood frequency values for ungauged basins or basins with limited
data. To help address this problem, the concept of a design storm was developed. The
design storm is a "what–if" approach that may be helpful when planning for potential
floods.
A design storm is a precipitation event of a
specific magnitude and duration; for
example, 150 mm in 24 hours. A design
storm results in a design flood of a specific
magnitude that is used in a "what– if"
scenario to estimate the impact.
http://evidence.environment-agency.gov.uk/FCERM/en/FluvialDesignGuide/Chapter2.aspx?pagenum=4
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Design Events
Many countries construct design storms based on
depth–duration–frequency curves, which show the
relationship between the depth of precipitation and
frequency of occurrence of different duration periods.
• The flow in channels is of high interest to humans for multiple reasons, from flood
prevention and erosion control to water resource management and power generation.
• Present discharge and potential bankfull discharge can be estimated using the Manning
Equation. This equation demonstrates the importance of channel roughness and
hydraulic radius in determining the efficiency of the channel at conveying water.
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• Flood frequency analysis provides information about the statistical potential for
floods.
• Return period expresses a time period (i.e., the 100–year flood) that is the statistical
average time duration between floods of a certain magnitude. The greater the return
period, the larger the flood.
• Floods, however, do not occur at evenly spaced time intervals. Thus, a 100–year flood
won't necessarily occur just once in a 100–year period.
• A given return period flood is not necessarily the result of a rainfall event with the
same return period. That is, a 25–year rainfall won't necessarily produce a 25–year
flood.
• The period of record should be at least half as long as the computed return period.
That is, to estimate a 500–year flood one should have at least 250 years of data.
• Flood frequency statistics are more representative of potential floods when the
period of record is long enough to capture all types of events that are possible.
• Reliable flood frequency data require that floods are independent and
homogeneous.
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Environment Agency (2011) Fluvial Design Guide (Ch.7). Online. Accessed 18/11/2011.
http://evidence.environment-agency.gov.uk/FCERM/en/FluvialDesignGuide/Chapter7.aspx?pagenum=4
Hendriks, M.R. (2010) Introduction to Physical Hydrology. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Vogel, R. M., Yaindl, C. and Walter, M. (2011), Nonstationarity: Flood Magnification and
Recurrence Reduction Factors in the United States. JAWRA Journal of the American Water
Resources Association, 47: 464–474. doi: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00541.x
http://evidence.environment-agency.gov.uk/FCERM/en/FluvialDesignGuide/Chapter2.aspx?pagenum=4
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/6000/2115548.pdf
http://www.earthmagazine.org/article/100-year-flood-fallacy-return-periods-misleading-
communication-flood-risk
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00541.x/abstract
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