26th International Computer Conference, Computer Society of Iran, Tehran, Iran

A Recurrent Neural Network Approach to Model

Failure Rate Considering Random and Deteriorating
Failures
2021 26th International Computer Conference, Computer Society of Iran (CSICC) | 978-1-6654-1241-4/20/$31.00 ©2021 IEEE | DOI: 10.1109/CSICC52343.2021.9420545

Ali Alizadeh Navid Malek Alayi

School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, College of Engineering School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, College of Engineering
University of Tehran University of Tehran
Tehran, Iran Tehran, Iran
alializadeh1374@ut.ac.ir navidmalekalayi@ut.ac.ir

Hamid Lesani
Alireza Fereidunian School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, College of Engineering
K.N.Toosi University of Technology University of Tehran
Tehran, Iran Tehran, Iran
fereidunian@eetd.kntu.ac.ir lesani@ut.ac.ir

Abstract— Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) utilize their VE plan |VE uplan Value of energy in planned| unplanned
internal state to handle variable length sequences, as time series; outage
namely here as uncertain failure rates of the systems. Failure rate wh Maximum working available hour
model of the components are required to improve systems
X|X Normalized data| raw data
reliability. Although the failure rate model has undeniable
importance systems reliability assessment, an acceptable failure µ Average of data
rate model has not been proposed to consider all causes of failures π Probability of each scenario
particularly random failures. Therefore, planners and decision θ Step of star-wised weibull-function.
makers are susceptible to a high financial risk for their decisions
Variables and Functions:
in the system. An approach is addressed to consider random
failure rate along with deteriorating failure rate, to ameliorate this I Binary variable for PM actions
risks, in this paper. Therefore, the complexity of failure behavior MC | RC Maintenance| repair costs
is considered, while modeling considering the failure data as a time POC |UOC Planned| unplanned outage cost
series. Moreover, the results of failure rate estimation are tested RPC Reward-penalty scheme cost
on a reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) implementation to λ Failure rate.
prove the importance of random failure rate consideration. The
results express that a more effective strategy can be regarded for
preventive maintenance (PM) scheduling in RCM problem, when I. INTRODUCTION
the proposed approach is utilized for failure rate modeling.
Index Terms—reliability assessment, failure rate, recurrent
neural networks, reliability-centered maintenance.
A FTER restructuring in power system, improvement of
service quality and power delivery became a strategic goal
for the planners and decision makers in the system. With this
respect, reliability improvement has being converted to an
NOMENCLATURE interesting research area for the researchers. The reliability
Indices: improvement problem, indeed, is investigated as reliability
i| j |t |k Index of components| PM actions| time | piece- assessment problem. In the reliability assessment problem, the
|s wised Weibull-Function| scenario. purpose is to provide a practical solution for reducing
Parameters and Constants: unplanned outages due to controllable and incontrollable
D plan | D uplan Duration of planned| unplanned outage factors in the system [1]. Among Different parts of power
rep main
Required hour-working for repair| system, distribution system is more significant than others
fhw | fhw
maintenance owing to the proximity with the customers. Furthermore,
regarding statistics, a high amount of outages usually occurs in
fwh rep | fwh main One hour working wage for repair|
maintenance distribution system [2]. With this in mind, many studies have
Big M been devoted to find an appropriate manner for reliability
M
MMC | RMC Maintenance| repair material cost improvement in distribution system.
As an example of reliability improvement in distribution
PC | RC Penalty cap| reward cap
system, a model for fault indicator placement is presented in
PCP | RCP Penalty cap point| reward cap point [3]. According to this model, outage time of customers
PSP | RSP Penalty starting point| reward starting point decreases. Moreover, in some studies [4]-[5], a method is
plan
UP |UP uplan
Undelivered power due to planned| investigated to find optimum places for electric vehicle parking
unplanned outage lot (PL) in order to decrease both outage duration and average
undelivered power. In [4], the uncertainty of electric vehicle

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 2

presence in parking is also considered as a stochastic

programming. To reduce the outage duration and undelivered
power, it is required to install switch in the system to isolate
fault area. In this regard, authors in [6]-[8], provide an
automatic and manual switch placement in distribution system.
A joint switch and PL is addressed in [9]. The results confirm
that outage duration can be significantly decline when PL and
automatic switch are utilized. Furthermore, reliability
assessment problem is analyzed as reliability-centered
maintenance (RCM) in [10]-[11] to find a preventive
maintenance (PM) plan and allocate an appropriate budget for
corrective maintenance (CM). In [12]-[13], in addition to RCM,
the reward-penalty scheme (RPS) is also modeled in order to
evaluate the impact of regulation policy on reliability.
Similarly, the automatic switch placement and RCM is modeled
in [14] simultaneously. Fig. 1 bathtub curve including the causes of failures [19]
In all the aforementioned studies an index is required to use
as a criterion for making the decision. This criterion usually is
known as failure rate in reliability assessment problem. In this
regard, a linear formulation for failure rate is proposed in [15], A. Data Preparation
however, the random failure rate is ignored. A machine learning In this paper, historical data of failures and external factors
based methods are proposed in [16]-[17] for estimation failure (e.g. weather parameters) are considered to model failure rate.
rate, while these estimation could not use in reliability However, two major problems must be solved to make the data
assessment problem. Additionally, a none-linear fuzzy based usable and more accurate for the proposed model. The first one
model is presented in to estimate failure rate. The is different scales in various data. More specifically, the rage of
aforementioned models are not capable to be considered in precipitation data is not fit with wind speed. Therefore, it can
reliability assessment. Hence, the planners are subject to impose a considerable error to the network. The other equally
uncontrollable financial risk in the system. important problem is the dependency of data. For instance, the
To remedy this problem in this paper, a linear model for impact of precipitation on failure is a specific amount.
failure rate is proposed in which random failures are estimated Similarly, the impact of wind speed on failure is a specific
based on recurrent neural networks. Therefore, in addition to amount as well. In the case that the both precipitation and wind
have ability to be modeled in reliability assessment problem, it speed occur simultaneously, these two specific amounts are not
has a high accuracy. As a results, the financial risk would be independent. To solve these shortcoming for the better
decreased by using the proposed method for the planners. To accuracy, it is required to do preparation action on data as
prove the claim, this model is implemented in RCM problem. follows:
The main contributions of this paper is listed as follows:
- Developing a decomposed model for deteriorating and X = Q −1 .( X − µ ) (2)
random failure rate. T (3)
Q .Q = COV ( X )
- Proposing a model for estimating random failure rate by
RNN. Where COV ( X ) is covariance of inputs.
- Proposing a definition of uncertainty set for failure rate. B. Total Failure Rate
- Evaluating the impact of random failure rate consideration
As it is mentioned previously, total failure rate includes
on the financial performance and reliability.
deteriorating and random failures. In other way, it can be said
that it consists of controllable and uncontrollable factors.
II. FAILURE RATE MODELING Deteriorating failure can be managed by PM, while random
Failure rate, in fact, is an index that declares a component failures are uncontrollable. As a result, PM and external factors
how much is exposed to failure. In this regard, it is a basis for such as weather influence total failure rate. Moreover, this
reliability improvement in the system. Therefore, any mistake
or deviation in the modeling could result in huge financial
losses for the planners. To model the failure rate in accurate
way, it is required to identify failure causes. In this respect,
failure rate can be divided to three parts, namely, infant,
deteriorating, and random failure rate. This matter is depicted
in Fig. 1. Infant failures can be ignored due to the decreasing
nature of it. Consequently, total failure rate can be expressed as
follows:
λT = λ d + λ r (1)
Fig. 2 The overview of the proposed RNN [20]

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 3

Algorithm 1 : algorithm for forming and training the network This problem is uncertainty factor of the total failure rate
prediction. The input factors in RNNs have an uncertainty that
Set D,N iter , p ,N iter ,q make the final prediction uncertain as well. To cope with this
shortcoming, instead of using the certain values for the inputs,
Set X ,Y
it is possible that a pessimistic and optimistic value are utilized
Normalize X for the inputs. By doing so, the total failure rate is predicted for
For 1: N iter , p do two optimistic and pessimistic view; hence two optimistic and
For 1: N iter ,q do pessimistic value for random failure rate can be calculated.
Now, it can be said that real random failure rate will occur
Create Net( p,q,D, X ,Y ) between these two amounts. This uncertainty set can be used in
Train Net robust model of reliability assessment to find a robust solution
Calculate Performance for reliability assessment. Here, the expected value of random
End For failure is considered. To find the expected value of random
End For
failure rate, an inspiration of real-world is utilized. Based on
Determine argmin{Performance(p,q) }
this inspiration, it can be said that events mostly happen
between the best and worst predictions. Thus, it is possible that
failure can be calculated based on the failure number in each events follow normal distribution for their occurrence
year for each component. Thus, total failure rate (output) and probability. Therefore, the form of random failure rate in total
the effecting factors (input) can be determined for each failure rate can be represented as below:
components. Consequently, a neural network can be trained to λiT, t =  λid, j , t +  π i , t , s × λir, t , s (5)
find the relationship between input and output. However, j s

failure rate in one given year is depended to the amount of it in
the previous years. With this respect, neural network is not a
sufficient tool for the modeling. Neural network time-series
which is a subset of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) is an
effective for this problem in which the relation with the
previous amounts can be considered. The algorithm of RNN
formation and optimal layer determination is proposed in
Algorithm 1. The overview of RNN is depicted in Fig. 2.
C. Deteriorating Failure rate
This type of failures can be controlled by PM actions. Thus,
d
the linear formulation of λ is represented as below in the
decoupled way [15]:
p −1
(4)
λi , j , t ≥ θ .(1 −  I i , j , t − n )
k
The process of random failure rate prediction is illustrated in
Algorithm 2.
III. RESULTS
In this section, the result of training and failure rate
estimation are proposed in part A and B respectively.
A. Training Report
To estimate total failure rate, the real world data of an urban
area in Tehran Metropolitan is utilized. Furthermore, external
factors are assumed as temperature, precipitation rate (rain and
snow), the average of wind speed, the maximum demand, and
the previous PM actions on components. The data associated
with weather in Tehran city is available in [24]. According to

n=0
k size of the network. In this regard, the proposed algorithm is
Where θ can be estimated by distinguishing failure causes
and fitting the distinct data on Weibull-Function.
D. Random failure rate
According to equation (1) and (4), the random failure rate
can be calculated in the case that total failure rate and
deteriorating failure rate are determined which a manner is
provided in the prior parts for this. Nevertheless, a problem still
exists that does not allow for calculation of random failure rate.
Algorithm 2: algorithm for predicting total and random failure rate
Algorithm 1, the first step for estimation is to determine optimal
implemented in Matlab area. The delay, the type of neurons,
and data selection are modified on one, Sigmond function, and
random respectively. The optimal dimension for network is
determined 60 × 1 because the minimum square error (MSE) in
this dimension is in the minimum level. The MSE in several
dimension is demonstrated in Fig. 3. Furthermore, the result of
validation including error histogram diagram and training trend
is depicted in Fig. 4. In this dimension, best performance is
2.56 × 10 −6 and this performance occurs in 38th epochs. The

Determine Best network‘s dimension

Set Worst and best cases for inputs
Train Net for best and worst cases
Determine The parameters of Normal Distribution Function:
 µ − 2σ = Best caseValue

 µ + 2σ = worst caseValue
Generate Scenarios
Calculate Probabilities
Determine Expected Random Failure Rate:
λ r =  π s .λ sr
s

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 4

TABLE I . RANDOM FAILURE RATE IN OPTIMISTIC AND

PESSIMISTIC VIEW

Optimistic View
Years 1 2 3 4
Random Failure rate 0.1918 0.2053 0.2106 0.2124
Pessimistic view
Years 1 2 3 4
Random Failure rate 0.2327 0.2417 0.2645 0.2744

function considering the worth-case. Hence, a solution for

determining an uncertainty set for failure rate which is very
(a) challenging can be the proposed method. Similarly, the
uncertainty sec can be utilized for basis of scenario generation
in stochastic programing. To this end, Algorithm 2 is proposed
in which it is assumed that possibilities are distributed normally
in the uncertainty set. It is useful to mention that other
distributions also can be used relying on the available data. The
optimistic and pessimistic view, in fact, give us the possibilities
with lowest probability. Thus, it can be possible for us to
calculate other possibilities with their probabilities. In normal
function the low probabilities are µ − 2σ and µ + 2σ which are
considered as optimistic and pessimistic view respectively. The
result of optimistic and pessimistic prediction for random
failure rate is illustrated in TABLE I. It is crystal clear that the
amount of random failure in optimistic view is less than the
(b) pessimistic view. This is because, in optimistic view the amount
Fig. 4 a) Error histogram for the proposed NET. b) The of external factors are considered as the minimum possibility.
trend of train, test, and validation data in various
IV. INVESTIGATION OF FAILURE RATE IMPACT ON
error histogram expresses that the accuracy of this dimension RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT
for the estimation is very high.
To show impact of failure rate on reliability assessment
B. Estimation Results problem, RCM is introduced in this section. The formulation of
Based on the optimum dimension random and total failure RCM problem can be found in [10]. The purpose of RCM
rate is estimated as Fig. 5. According to Fig. 5, amount of total problem is to minimize cost of interruption, while reliability
failure rate in first years is predicted more than the next years. increases to the accepted level. The objective function and
This is due to the fact that PM actions are not implemented in constraints of RCM in presence of RPS can be represented as
these years correctly and frequently. follows:
After determining an optimal dimension for network the
optimistic and pessimistic estimation for external factors must
be considered to find the uncertainty set [23]. This uncertainty
set can be used in robust models to optimize the objective

Total Predicted Failure rate Predicted Random Failure Rate

1.2
0.9792 0.982
1
0.816
0.8 0.7079
0.64 0.67
0.62
λ (fr/yr)

0.547 0.5684
0.6
0.4657
0.4013
0.4
0.21 0.22 0.19
0.18 0.17 0.18 0.16 0.15
0.2 0.11 0.14
0.1

0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Year

Fig. 5 Total and random predicted failure rate Fig. 3 MSE in various p and q

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 5

Min ( POC + MC + UOC + RC − RPC )

t
t t t t t
(6)
Years Years Years Years
S.t. 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
(7) 1 19 1 19
POC t = å å (I i ,j ,t .D plan .UPi plan
,j ,t
.VE t )
plan

i j 2 20 2 20
(8)
MC t = å å
i j
(I .(fwh
i ,j ,t
main
j
main
.fhw j ,t + MMC j ,t )) 3 21 3 21
4 22 4 22
(9)
UOC t = å å (λi ,j ,t .D Uplan .UPiUplan
,j ,t
.VE t )
Uplan
5 23 5 23
i j

(10) 6 24 6 24
RC t = å å (λ .(fwh
i ,j ,t j
rep rep
.fhw j ,t + RMC j ,t ))
i j 7 25 7 25
(11)

Feeders NO.
− M .(1 − ϑtrc ) ≤ RPCt − RC ≤ M .(1 − ϑtrc ) 8 26 8 26
− M .(1 − ϑt pc ) ≤ RPCt − PC ≤ M .(1 − ϑt pc ) (12) 9 27 9 27
t
r
t
rc
− M .(1 − ϑ + ϑ ) ≤ RPCt − ( SAIDI t − RSP ).IR (13) 10 28 10 28
r rc
≤ M .(1 − ϑ + ϑ ) t t 11 29 11 29
− M .(1 − ϑt p + ϑt pc ) ≤ RPCt − ( SAIDI t − PSP ).IR (14) 12 30 12 30
p pc
≤ M .(1 − ϑt + ϑt )
13 31 13 31
− M .(ϑtr + ϑtrc + ϑt p + ϑt pc ) ≤ RPC t (15)
14 32 14 32
≤ M .(ϑtr + ϑtrc + ϑt p + ϑt pc )
15 33 15 33
RCP − SAIDI t RCP − SAIDI t (16)
M
≤ ϑtrc ≤ 1 +
M
16 34 16 34
SAIDI t − PCP pc SAIDI t − PCP (17) 17 35 17 35
≤ ϑt ≤ 1 +
M M 18 36 18 36
RSP − SAIDI t RSP − SAIDI (18) (a) (b)
≤ ϑtr ≤ 1 + t

M M
SAIDI t − PSP SAIDI t − PSP (19) :tt :Minor :Major
≤ ϑt p ≤ 1 +
M M Fig. 6 a) PM actions when random failure is not considered.
(20) b) PM actions when random failure rate is considered.
Wht ³ å
i
(fwh j
main
.I i ,j ,t + λi ,j ,t .fwh j
rep
)
deteriorating and random failure rate). The controllable failure
å I i ,j ,t £ 1 (21)
j
rate or deteriorating failures can be controlled by applying PM
actions to the components. However, the uncontrollable failure
rate or random failures are not modifiable owing to the random
The objective function is to minimize cost of PM and CM
nature of these causes. These failures, indeed, occur due to
interruptions and also the maintenance and repair cost. The
random events, such as weather condition. Thus, preventing
interruption, maintenance, and repair costs are elaborated in
their occurrence is not in control of Discos. In this regard, many
(7)-(10) . Moreover, the RPS subjects are presented in (11)-(19)
research studies ignored its consideration in the reliability
[21]. Subject (20) states that the total repair and maintenance
assessment problem. Nevertheless, its consideration can create
hour must be limited to the maximum available working-hour.
a better view for reliability level in the system. Therefore, a
Similarly, the constraint of PM action on one component is
more proper strategy can be implemented in controllable failure
considered in (21).
rate to improve reliability level. For more illustration, PM
actions on feeders in the test system is depicted in Fig. 6. In this
V. EVALUATION OF FAILURE RATE IMPACT ON RCM
figure, both state of considering and not considering the random
In this section, the results of random failure rate impact on failure rate is demonstrated in two state. It is apparent when the
reliability management problem are proposed. Then, in the random failures are taken into account, the number of PM
discussion part, an analysis for the advantages of the proposed actions increase because Disco wants to control the reliability.
method will be presented. It is necessary to know that data for PM actions, here, are considered as Minor, Major, and tree
RCM problem can be found in [12]. Moreover, the RCM trimming (tt). A comprehensive analysis for the disadvantages
problem is tested on bus number two of Roy Billington Test of ignoring random failure rate is presented in the next part.
system (RBTS2) [22]. The RCM problem is broadly is
illustrated in [10]. B. Discussion:
Before this part, it is illustrated how random failure rate can
A. RCM Implementation: be predicted. Then, this type of failure is applied to the RCM
In this part. The result of considering random failure rate in problem and the results is demonstrated in the previous part.
RCM problem is proposed. In fact, PM actions are scheduled in Now, the important question is why predicting of random
the RCM problem. In this paper, a method is proposed to failure rate and its consideration in reliability assessment
consider controllable and uncontrollable failure rate (i.e.

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problem is critical. To appropriately answer this question, three
scenarios are considered. In the first one, random failure rate is
not considered and its impact on RCM problem is ignored. In
the second one, random failure rate is not considered in RCM
problem while its impact on RCM problem is contemplated. In
the last one, both random failure rate and its impact are
considered. The total cost and SIADI during four years is
demonstrated in TABLE II.
According to the results, in scenario 1, Discos allocates
458762 $ for PM and CM actions to improve reliability in the
system. However, due to ignoring random failure rate, in fact,
705534 $ must be invested in the system considering scenario
3. Moreover, the reliability in scenario 3 is unacceptable.
Nonetheless, regarding scenario 2, when Disco considers the
random failure rate, it can select a better strategy for PM
actions, even though the random failures cannot be controlled.
Hence, considering random failure rate can result in preventing
financial loss and achieving acceptable reliability level.
Another important problem is regulation policy. Discos,
indeed, must pay or receive money for their performance in
reliability improvement according to RPS. In scenario 1, Disco
imagines that by the PM scheduling, its performance is in the
reward area. Notwithstanding, in real-world, the scenario 2
occurs and Disco must pay considerable penalty owing to its
low performance. By frequent happening, when Disco observes
that it’s financial and reliability targets are not satisfied, it loses
its incentive for investing in the system. Thus, power delivery
to customers will face critical problem. On the other hand, this
problem is not going to happen in scenario 3 because the
financial and reliability target can be satisfied under this
circumstance.
VI. CONCLUSIONS AND PROSPECTIVE
This paper proposes an approach based on recurrent neural
networks (RNNs) for failure rate prediction. In this approach,
total failure rate is predicted relying on the network which is
trained from the historical failure data and effective external
factors data (e.g. weather condition, etc.). To this end, an
algorithm is proposed to find a proper dimension for the
network. Then, deteriorating failure rate is determined
according to fitting failure data on Weibull function. Thus,
random failure rate can be specified by subtracting total and
deteriorating failure rates. Moreover, another algorithm is
proposed to consider the uncertainty of external factors.
According to this algorithm, an uncertainty set is defined for
failure rate which can be utilized in robust and stochastic
models. This failure model is implemented on RCM problem
and the results express that considering random failure rate can
contribute in preventing financial loss and achieving acceptable
reliability level. Furthermore, ignoring random failure rate
results in negative consequences in term of financial, reliability,
and RPS for Discos. Therefore, the random failure rate must be
taken into account in reliability assessment problem. However,
modeling random failure rate is challenging which a method is
proposed for it.
Additionally, this paper can play role as a guide for Discos
on how they have to collect the components’ failure data. In
fact, failure data is collected in untechnical manners and this
impose significant amount of risk to the system. According this
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6
paper, they can decouple failure causes to the deteriorating and
random causes. Moreover, deteriorating can be detailed for
each component. As a result, this manner can result in more
accuracy in predications and estimations.
As a prospective route for research in this area, this model
can be applied to another reliability assessment problem and its
effect on reliability and financial performance can be analyzed
from different aspects. Besides, convolutional neural networks
approach can be applied for prediction to model the impact of
component’s failure rate on each other.
TABLE II TOTAL COST AND SAIDI IN VARIOUS SCENARIOS
SAIDI (min/yr)
Total Cost ($)
1 2 3 4
Scenario 1 3.2 3.5 2.9 3.1 458762
Scenario 2 4.05 4.89 5.31 6.22 705534
Scenario 3 3.6 4.01 3.32 3.46 512732
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