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The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Spot, Par, and Forward Curves 43
Credit Risk 62
Fixed-Income Securitization 77
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Bond Features/
Maturity - date of final payment + principal repayment
tenor - time remaining to maturity
< 1 yr. to maturity at issuance - money market security
> 1 yr. to maturity at issuance - capital market security
perpetual bonds - no stated maturity (not very common)
Principal - par value, face value, amount repaid at maturity
- amortizing bond - some principal is repaid each payment
(e.g. mortgage, MBS)
Coupon Rate and Frequency
fixed - constant amount - monthly, quarterly, semi-annual, annual
floating - variable with some MRR - market reference rate
+
(FRN) spread - issuer specific (credit
constant over the life spread)
of the bond (higher quality ➞ lower spread)
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Coupon Rate and Frequency
zero - buy at a discount, mature at par (pure discount bond)
(ZCB)
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Yield measures
yield to maturity - the bond’s IRR (mwrr) PMTs
- rate of return = YTM if: 𝐁𝐏𝟎 𝐁𝐏𝐓
1/ no default
𝐁𝐏
2/ held to maturity 1 𝐓4𝐁𝐏 5 - 1 = YTM
𝟎
3/ coupon reinvested at YTM rate
(if CFs are reinvested)
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Bond Indenture - legal contract
- contains: form of the bond, obligations of issuer, rights of
bondholders, sources of repayment
sovereign government - taxation, print currency
local/regional gov’t. - taxes, project cash flows
credit analysis corporate - operating cash flows for int./prin.
- evaluate OCF plus unsecured
value of collateral + pledge of specific assets
secured
ABS/MBS
tranche A senior
assets
loans ➞ CFs int. + prin. on tranche B
mortgages bonds
tranche C junior
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Bond Covenants
affirmative - typically impose no cost or restriction on operating
the business
- states what the issuer is required to do - typically
administrative
- pari passu clause - equal footing
- cross-default clause - a default on one is a default
on all
negative - what the issuer will not do
- limitations on liens (pledged assets)
- limitations on sales/leaseback (can’t sell the collateral)
- restrictions on issuance of debt more senior (negative
pledge clause)
- restriction on share buybacks/dividend/dividend increases
unless certain ratios are met (incurrence tests)
- limitations on additional debt
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b. describe how legal, regulatory, and tax considerations affect the issuance and
trading of fixed-income securities
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e.g. mortgage Price = 500k
Loan = 400k 30 yr. FRM @ 3.50%
PV = -400,000 FV = 0 N = 12 × 30 = 360 𝐈# = 𝟑. 𝟓𝟎#
𝐘 𝟏𝟐 = . 𝟐𝟗𝟏𝟔
̇ CPT PMT = 1796.18
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Variable Interest Debt - MRR + spread constant
less interest rate risk credit quality ↓
(i.e. price risk) since rate adjusts yield ↑ , price ↓
fixed rate - rates ↑, price ↓, coupon fixed
floating rate - rates ↑, price unch., coupon ↑
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Zero coupon bonds
- common type ➞ Strips ➞ dealer buys capital market bonds
- sells each CF as a ZCB
- no reinvestment risk ➞ rate of return = YTM if held to maturity
Deferred coupon bonds - no 𝒊 for first few years, then higher 𝒊
thereafter
- typically issued at par, typically for construction projects
(do not generate CFs until
complete)
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Contingency Provisions
Callable bonds - issuer has the right to call all or part of the
bond prior to maturity
- the bond will have a higher yield vs. a non-callable bond
(straight)
- allows the issuer to refinance debt if interest rates fall
- calls are set at fixed prices at fixed times
103% 102% 101% 100%
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Callable bonds - may be a ‘make-whole’ call
- bonds called at a sov. bond YTM of similar maturity
Putable bonds - bondholder has the right to redeem the bond at
pre-determined prices on pre-determined dates
- typically at par
- issued at lower yields
- if YTM < coupon , put has no value
YTM > coupon , company faces put risk
Convertible bonds - convertible into equity at a conversion price/sh.
- will have a lower yield
𝐩𝐚𝐫 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞
4𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 = conversion ratio
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Convertible bonds
- often used by growth companies
- will also have a ‘forced conversion’ provision
- if 𝐏𝟎 > conv. price for a # of days, company calls
bonds at a lower price
Attached warrants (not embedded) - can trade separately
a right to buy stock at a predetermined price
Contingent convertible bond (CoCo) - typically issued by banks
e.g. if Tier 1 capital falls below a regulatory level,
CoCo s automatically convert to equity
- will have a higher yield
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Domestic bonds - issued in same country as company
US company issues a USD bond in the US
Foreign bond - issued in a different country than the issuer
US company issues a CAD bond in Canada
Euro bond - issued outside the jurisdiction of any single country,
usually unsecured, and can be denominated in any currency
- usually named for the currency they are denominated in
e.g. Euro-dollar , Euro-yen
US company issues EUR bonds, not registered in any
country
Global bond - issued in Euro bond market plus at least
one domestic market
- all 4 are subject to different legal, regulatory, and tax requirements
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tax considerations
issuers - interest is tax-deductible
investors - taxable at marginal tax rate (interest)
- specific types of bonds may have some tax exempt qualities
i.e. cap-gains or interest exempt
e.g. UST - federal tax only
munis - tax exempt
- capital gains - may be a distinction between s.t./L.T. gains
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Credit Quality/
- both the issuer and the issues have ratings
same as senior unsecured
- 2 largest credit rating agencies ➞ Moody’s and S&P
- many institutional investors are restricted to instruments with
credit ratings and oftentimes some minimum
(must be rated) (IG only)
AAA, AA, A
BBB - or higher BBB, BBB -
fallen angels
HY - high yield ➞ speculative, junk ➞ BB+ or lower
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Fixed Income Indexes/
- perform the same function as equity indexes
1/ track broad risk/return of different markets
2/ enable evaluation of market performance
3/ benchmarks for portfolios and investment managers
4/ form the basis for indexed investment strategies and products
differ: many more constituents than equity indexes bond funds
far more changes (issuance, maturity) rarely hold
- monthly rebalancing all bonds
market value of debt weighted - sampling
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Primary FI markets/
- issuer sells a new bond to raise capital
- may be sold via public offering or private placement
for both
debut and may be underwritten non-underwritten
seasoned - underwriter and issuer agree unregistered
issuers on price, underwriter assumes small size or less well
risk of issuance known
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Primary FI markets/
- for sovereign debt - typically sold by auction led by the
Treasury or Ministry of Finance
Secondary FI markets/
- mostly quote driven, OTC markets (i.e. dealer markets)
- some electronic trading (Treasury Direct)
- liquidity varies across segments (gov’t., IG, HY)
- bid-offer quoted in bps (more liquid = tighter)
- DM sov. gov’t. ‘on-the-run’ bonds are the most liquid
most recently issued
- IG - on-the-run of frequent issuers most liquid (dealers have
inventory)
- remaining ➞ very low liquidity
Distressed debt - bonds from issuers believed to be very close to, or in,
- trades well below par bankruptcy
- will trade until issuer liquidates or restructures
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b. describe repurchase agreements (repos), their uses, and their benefits and
risks
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Short-term funding ➞ Non-financial/
Secured loans - asset-backed loans (fixed assets, high-quality
receivables, marketable securities)
Factoring - selling AR - typically at a discount
- factor collects the AR
External, security-based:
Commercial paper ( ≤ 3 mos.) - issued by large, highly-rated companies
- unsecured notes to fund wc or as bridge financing
- typically rolled over (introduces rollover risk)
- usually requires a backup line of credit (committed)
➞ Financials/
Deposits - household/commercial (operational) deposits
- checking accounts, demand deposits that pay little to
no interest
- no duration or maturity, but they do have
a behavioral maturity (fee rebates, min. balances)
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Short-term funding ➞ Financials/
Savings deposits - non-transactional, usually a stated term
i.e. certificate of deposit (CD, term deposit)
< 1 yr. maturity, pays interest at maturity (add-on)
- non-negotiable CD ➞ 𝐏 + 𝐢 at maturity, penalty for
early withdrawal
- negotiable CD ➞ can be sold in the market
retail - small denomination ~ 1000+
institutional - large denomination ~ 100k
Interbank market - short term lending/borrowing among financial
institutions as either secured or unsecured
- overnight to 1 yr. @ MRR (interbank rate)
- banks hold funds with central bank - reserves
- excess reserves can be lent in the central bank
funds market
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Short-term funding ➞ Financials/
Interbank market
- lend/borrow at the central bank funds rate
upper bound - will lend at
- CB targets the rate
lower bound - will borrow at
- if a bank can’t borrow in the interbank market, they can
borrow from CB at the discount window
- collateral required, borrowing rate higher than CB funds
rate
- often invites greater oversight
Commercial paper - dominated by large financial institutions
- unsecured ( ~ 60% of issuance/annum.)
Short-term
ABCP - asset-backed loans
commercial paper Bank SPE ABCP
off balance sheet guarantee ➞ back-up credit facility
- less capital required for banks, investors get access to bank loan
returns
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Repurchase Agreements/
secured short-term funding source
- sale of a security with agreement to repurchase it
(sov. bonds usually)
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Repurchase Agreements/
e.g./ 30-day repo, Security value $100M, 102% initial margin, repo rate = .25%
𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝐌
102% = 1.02 = X = 98,039,216
𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐗
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Repurchase Agreements/
- used for 3 specific purposes
1/ finance ownership of a security
2/ earn short-term income by lending funds on a secured basis
3/ borrow a security in order to short it (reverse repo)
e.g. buy a bond for 1000 with a yield of 3% and sell it in a repo for
980
repo rate 1%
term 30 days
yield amortized 3%
int. exp. = .867 ➞ min. default or liquidity risk
amortized gain = 𝟐. 𝟓𝟎.
𝐍𝐈𝐈 = 1.683
ROI = 𝟏. 𝟔𝟖𝟑1𝟐𝟎 = 8.415% for 30d (100.98% annualized)
- the longer the term, the higher the repo rate
- the lower the collateral quality/liquidity - the higher the repo rate
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Risks/ Default risk - counterparty may not repurchase
Collateral risk - with low quality collateral
Margining risk - counterparty may not meet margin calls if
collateral drops in value
Legal risk
Netting/settlement risk - money and collateral actually transfer
- risks can be reduced by using a triparty repo
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HY
IG spread
spread
- more concern about
default
𝐫𝐟 𝐫𝐟
more concern
about credit
migration
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composition of debt
Short-term (1 - 12 months) T-Bills (ZCB)
medium term - long-term Notes, Bonds - fixed rate generally
- limited issuance of FRNs, TIPS
gov’t. guarantees - gov’t. agency debt (Ginnie Mae) - agency MBS
Ricardian equivalence
IF:/ taxpayers smooth consumption (i.e. save expected future taxes)
taxpayers form rational expectations that a tax cut today = higher
future taxes
capital markets are perfect with no transaction costs
taxpayers are altruistic on an intergenerational basis (i.e. pass on
tax savings to descendants)
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then:/ - governments should fund themselves with the shortest
possible maturity to minimize borrowing costs
(low rates due to liquidity premium and lack
But/ Conditions do not hold of maturity premium)
∴ debt maturity terms matter
- longer maturity = higher borrowing costs but greater fiscal
stability
Benefits of a maturity spectrum/
establishment of a 𝐫𝐟 benchmark for all other debt
- gov’t. issues benchmark securities (i.e. 2 yr., 5 yr., 10 yr., 30 yr.)
- increases market efficiency and transparency
use in managing and hedging interest rate risk
- bonds to hedge liability interest rate risk
- futures to hedge asset interest rate risk
use as collateral
use in monetary policy and forex reserves
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fund lend
members org. EM
- backup
finance issue
bonds
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b. identify the relationships among a bond’s prices, coupon rate, maturity, and
yield-to-maturity
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e.g./ 3.2% 5-yr. semi at par ➞ market discount rate = coupon rate
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yield-to-maturity (YTM)
- given 𝐏𝟎 , can always calculate YTM (IRR)
➞ 3.2% 5 yr. semi @ 108.15
N = 10 PV = -108.15 FV = 100 PMT = 1.6 CPT 𝐈#𝐘 = .7509
× 2 = 1.5019
excel: = YIELD(settlement, maturity, rate, pr, redemption, frequency, [basis]
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when a bond is priced between coupon dates, it is quoted as
a flat price ➞ 𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭
- also has AI (accrued interest)
𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 = 𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭 + 𝐀𝐈
dirty price quoted or clean price
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➞ algebra: 𝟖𝟐1 = 𝟏
𝟖𝟒
𝟖𝟒,𝟐
𝐏𝐌𝐓𝟏 𝐏𝐌𝐓𝟐 𝐏𝐌𝐓𝐍 + 𝐅𝐕 𝐭
𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 =1 + + ⋯+ : (𝟏 + 𝐫) *𝐓
(𝟏 + 𝐫) (𝟏 + 𝐫) 𝟐 (𝟏 + 𝐫)𝐍
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calculate PV here (N = remaining PMTs)
PMT PMT
𝐭
- then × (𝟏 + 𝐫) *𝐓 to get 𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 then 𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 - AI = 𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭
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Coupon effect/
- lower coupon bonds ➞ higher proportion of total cash flows
occur at maturity
∴ higher discount rate ➞ lower PV than if coupon were higher
Maturity effect/ - longer the tenor of the bond, the greater the
%∆PV for a ∆yield
(exception - low yield, long-term bonds at a discount)
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Constant yield-price trajectory/
pr.
- bond prices change with the passage of time
- premium or discount bonds are ‘pulled’ to par
disc.
- holding all else constant
Convexity effect/
%∆PV for a - ∆y > %∆PV for a + ∆y
P
inverse relationship
+ ∆y ➞ - ∆P
- ∆y ➞ + ∆P
- ∆y + ∆y 𝐲
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2 yr.
➞ avg. YTM = 3.8035
➞ 3 yr. ➞ 3.93183 3 yrs.
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- linear interpolation can also be used to estimate required
yield spread (over benchmark rate)
e.g. 5 yr. bond yield for a new corporate issue?
- company has:
4 y, 3% annual at 102.40 (N = 4, PMT = 3, FV = 100, PV = -102.40)
CPT 𝐈#𝐘 = 2.364%
yield spread
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b. compare, calculate, and interpret yield and yield spread measures for fixed-
rate bonds
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- comparing periodicities:
𝐀𝐏𝐑 𝐦 𝐦 𝐀𝐏𝐑 𝐧 𝐧
E𝟏 + I = E𝟏 + I
𝐦 𝐧
e.g. 3.582% semi-annual bond basis
quarterly: . 𝟎𝟑𝟓𝟖𝟐 𝟐 𝐀𝐏𝐑 𝟒 𝟒
E𝟏 + I = E𝟏 + I
𝟐 𝟒
𝟏*
<(𝟏. 𝟎𝟑𝟔𝟏𝟒𝟏) 𝟒 − 𝟏C × 𝟒 = 𝐀𝐏𝐑 𝟒 = 𝟑. 𝟓𝟔𝟔%
𝟏*
monthly <(𝟏. 𝟎𝟑𝟔𝟏𝟒𝟏) 𝟏𝟐 − 𝟏C × 𝟏𝟐 = 𝐀𝐏𝐑 𝟏𝟐 = 𝟑. 𝟓𝟓𝟓𝟔%
compounding more frequently
3.582% ➞ 3.566% ➞ 3.5556% at a lower rate corresponds to
(2) (4) (12)
less frequently at a higher rate
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- negative yields 5 yr. ZCB @ 103.72
𝟏#
annual B𝟏𝟎𝟎#𝟏𝟎𝟑. 𝟕𝟐C 𝟓
- 1 = -.7278%
𝟏#
semi IB𝟏𝟎𝟎#𝟏𝟎𝟑. 𝟕𝟐C 𝟏𝟎
− 𝟏K × 2 = -.7291%
𝟏#
monthly IB𝟏𝟎𝟎#𝟏𝟎𝟑. 𝟕𝟐C 𝟔𝟎
− 𝟏K × 12 = -.7303%
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microeconomic factors
- issuer and the bond
In bps itself
can affect credit risk as
well
macroeconomic factors
- general economic growth,
business cycle, fiscal and
monetary policy
Page 6
e.g./ 24 yr. 5.25% semi 𝟑𝟎&
𝟑𝟔𝟎 @ 123.50
issuer curve
20 yr. UST 2%
30 yr. UST 2.25% YTM
N = 48
(. 𝟎𝟐𝟐𝟓 − . 𝟎𝟐)
× 𝟒 = .𝟏 PMT = 2.625
𝟏𝟎
PV = -123.50
benchmark curve 2% + .1 = 2.1% FV = 100
(gov’t. or swap curve)
*𝐈#𝐘 × 𝟐- = 3.756%
20 24 30
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OAS - option adjusted spread (non zero-volatility)
- requires a pricing model + estimate of interest rate volatility
OAS = Z spread + option value in bps (putable bond ➞ long the put)
callable bond ➞ short the call
z-spread - option value in bps
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variable variable
price coupon
Page 2
⇒ Yield Measures/
1/ Floating rate bonds - common day count conventions
𝐚𝐜𝐭.. 𝐚𝐜𝐭..
𝟑𝟔𝟓 𝟑𝟔𝟎
yield spread over the reference rate ➞ quoted margin ➞ credit related
required margin ➞ spread required by investors to ➞ may even be
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Page 3
⇒ Yield Measures/
1/ Floating rate bonds
(𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐐𝐌) × 𝐅𝐕 (𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐐𝐌) × 𝐅𝐕 (𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐐𝐌) × 𝐅𝐕
+ 𝐅𝐕
𝐏𝐕 = 𝐦 + 𝐦 + ⋯ + 𝐦
𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐃𝐌 𝟐
𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐃𝐌 𝐍
C𝟏 + F C𝟏 + 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐃𝐌F C𝟏 + F
𝐦 𝐦 𝐦
e.g./ 2 yr. FRN, pays 6-mos. Libor + 50 bps, required spread = 40 bps
1.25%
Index = .0125
N= 4
QM = .005
DM = .004 PMT = (𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐐𝐌) × 𝐅𝐕 = (. 𝟎𝟏𝟐𝟓 + . 𝟎𝟎𝟓) × 𝟏𝟎𝟎 = . 𝟎𝟏𝟕𝟓 = . 𝟖𝟕𝟓
𝐦 𝟐 𝟐
𝐈4 = 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐃𝐌 . 𝟎𝟏𝟐𝟓 + . 𝟎𝟎𝟒 . 𝟎𝟏𝟔𝟓
𝐘 = = = . 𝟖𝟐𝟓%
𝐦 𝟐 𝟐
FV = 100
Page 4
⇒ Yield Measures/
1/ Floating rate bonds
e.g./ 5 yr. FRN, pays 3-mos. Libor, QM = 75 bps, PV = 95.50 (DM = ?)
1.10%
N = 20, FV = 100, PV = -95.50, PMT = !𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐐𝐌0 × 𝐏𝐕 = 𝟏. 𝟖𝟓% × 𝟏𝟎𝟎 = . 𝟒𝟔𝟐𝟓
𝟒 𝟒
CPT 𝐈1𝐘 = .7045% ➞ (.007045 × 4) - .0110 = DM
DM = 171.8 bps
N = 16 2%
PMT = 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐐𝐌 × 𝐏𝐕 = (. 𝟎𝟐 + . 𝟎𝟏𝟐𝟓) × 𝟏𝟎𝟎 = . 𝟖𝟏𝟐𝟓
FV = 100 𝐦 𝟒
CPT 𝐈#𝐘 = .009478 ⇒ (.009478 × 4) - Index = DM
PMT = .8125
PV = -98 = .017912
or/ 179.12 bps
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Page 5
⇒ Yield Measures/
1/ Floating rate bonds assumes MRR is the same
for all cash flows
Page 6
⇒ Yield Measures/
2/ Money market instruments
annualized, but not compounded ⇒ instead
rates of return are stated on a simple interest basis
either discount rates or add-on rates
(T-bills, CP, BA) (CDs, repos)
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Page 7
⇒ Yield Measures/
2/ Money market instruments
Add-on rates PV = 𝐅𝐕
𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬1 ⇒ AOR = ! 𝐲𝐫. 0 !𝐅𝐕 − 𝐏𝐕0
Q𝟏 + 𝐲𝐫. × 𝐀𝐎𝐑T 𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐏𝐕
e.g./ 180-day BA, AOR = 4.38, 365-day yr., $10M periodicity 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐞𝐝
𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐝
FV = PV(1 + 𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬#𝐲𝐫. × AOR)
= $10M(1 + 𝟏𝟖𝟎#𝟑𝟔𝟓 × .0438) = $10,216,000
= 4.934%
Page 8
⇒ Yield Measures/ ⇒ DR vs. AOR
2/ Money market instruments
⇒ 360 vs. 365
- convert all to AOR with 365d to compare:
e.g./ 90-day CP, DR = 5.76%, 360-day yr. vs. 90-day CD, AOR = 5.9%, 365d/yr.
PV = 100 × (1 - 𝟗𝟎#𝟑𝟔𝟎 × .0576) = 98.56
𝟏𝟎𝟎 − 𝟗𝟖. 𝟓𝟔
AOR = Q𝟑𝟔𝟓1 T E I = . 𝟎𝟓𝟗𝟐𝟓 vs. 5.9%
𝟗𝟎 𝟗𝟖. 𝟓𝟔
BEY - bond equivalent yield ➞ AOR for 365d.
- all 180 day A. PV = 100 × (1 - 𝟏𝟖𝟎#𝟑𝟔𝟎 × .0433) = 97.835
𝟏𝟎𝟎 − 𝟗𝟕. 𝟖𝟑𝟓
A - DR = 4.33, 360d AOR = D𝟑𝟔𝟓#𝟏𝟖𝟎E M N = 𝟒. 𝟒𝟖𝟕%
𝟗𝟕. 𝟖𝟑𝟓
B - DR = 4.36, 365d B. PV = 100 × (1 - 𝟏𝟖𝟎#𝟑𝟔𝟓 × .0436) = 97.84986
𝟏𝟎𝟎 − 𝟗𝟕. 𝟖𝟒𝟗𝟖𝟔
C - AOR = 4.35, 360d AOR = D𝟑𝟔𝟓#𝟏𝟖𝟎E M N = 𝟒. 𝟒𝟓𝟔%
𝟗𝟕. 𝟖𝟒𝟗𝟖𝟔
D - AOR = 4.45, 365d C. FV = 100 × (1 + 𝟏𝟖𝟎#𝟑𝟔𝟎 × .0435) = 102.175
ok! AOR = D𝟑𝟔𝟓#𝟏𝟖𝟎E M
𝟏𝟎𝟐. 𝟏𝟕𝟓 − 𝟏𝟎𝟎
N = 𝟒. 𝟒𝟏%
𝟏𝟎𝟎
42
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The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Spot, Par, and Foward Curves
a. define spot rates and the spot curve, and calculate the price of a bond using
spot rates
b. define par and forward rates, and calculate par rates, forward rates from spot
rates, spot rates from forward rates, and the price of a bond using forward
rates
43
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Page 2
⇒ Maturity structure of interest rates/
- typically stated on
a semi-annual bond basis
- observed yields on recently issued ‘on-the-run’
coupon paying bonds
- gov’t. bond yield - 1 mos., 3 mos., 6 mos. ➞ money market, all converted
curve, coupon bonds to BEY (semi-annual basis)
⇒ Par Curve - sequence of YTMs such that each
bond is priced at par
- par rates are derived from spot rates
spots 𝐏𝐌𝐓 + 𝟏𝟎𝟎
𝟏𝟎𝟎 = PMT = 5.263%
1 yr. - 5.263% 𝟏. 𝟎𝟓𝟐𝟔𝟑
2 yr. - 5.616% 𝐏𝐌𝐓 𝐏𝐌𝐓 + 𝟏𝟎𝟎
𝟏𝟎𝟎 = + PMT = 5.606
𝟏. 𝟎𝟓𝟐𝟔𝟑 (𝟏. 𝟎𝟓𝟔𝟏𝟔)𝟐
3 yr. - 6.359%
𝐏𝐌𝐓 𝐏𝐌𝐓 𝐏𝐌𝐓 + 𝟏𝟎𝟎
4 yr. - 7.008% 𝟏𝟎𝟎 = + + PMT = 6.306
𝟏. 𝟎𝟓𝟐𝟔𝟑 (𝟏. 𝟎𝟓𝟔𝟏𝟔) 𝟐 (𝟏. 𝟎𝟔𝟑𝟓𝟗)𝟑
etc…
44
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Page 3
e.g./ spot rates: 3 yr. 5% annual bond
𝟓 𝟓 𝟏𝟎𝟓
1 yr. 2% (𝐙𝟏 ) 𝐏𝐕 = 𝟏. 𝟎𝟐 + 𝟏. 𝟎𝟑𝟐 + (𝟏. 𝟎𝟒)𝟑 = 𝟏𝟎𝟐. 𝟗𝟔
2 yr. 3% (𝐙𝟐 ) YTM: N= 3 PMT = 5 FV = 100 PV = -102.96
3 yr. 4% (𝐙𝟑 ) CPT 𝐈&
𝐘 = 3.935%
pulled towards r(3) since the
weight of the CFs are at T = 3.
Page 4
⇒ Maturity structure of interest rates/
Forward curve ➞ based on forward rates
➞ agreed on today, received/paid in the future
➞ quoted as ‘when, what’
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Page 5
- deriving spot rates from forward rates:
𝟏;
r(1) = 1.88% r(2) = [(𝟏. 𝟎𝟏𝟖𝟖) × (𝟏. 𝟎𝟐𝟕𝟕)] 𝟐 - 1 = 2.324%
𝐟𝟏,𝟏 = 2.77% 𝟏;
r(3) = [(𝟏. 𝟎𝟏𝟖𝟖)(𝟏. 𝟎𝟐𝟕𝟕)(𝟏. 𝟎𝟑𝟓𝟒)] 𝟑 - 1 = 2.728%
𝐟𝟐,𝟏 = 3.54% 𝟏;
or g(𝟏. 𝟎𝟐𝟑𝟐𝟒)𝟐 (𝟏. 𝟎𝟑𝟓𝟒)h 𝟑 - 1 = 2.728%
𝐟𝟑,𝟏 = 4.12%
𝟏;
r(4) = [(𝟏. 𝟎𝟏𝟖𝟖)(𝟏. 𝟎𝟐𝟕𝟕)(𝟏. 𝟎𝟑𝟓𝟒)(𝟏. 𝟎𝟒𝟏𝟐)] 𝟒 - 1 = 3.074%
𝟏;
or g(𝟏. 𝟎𝟐𝟕𝟐𝟖)𝟑 (𝟏. 𝟎𝟒𝟏𝟐)h 𝟒
- 1 = 3.074
Page 6
⇒ Maturity structure of interest rates/
forward
spot
par par
spot
forward
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Page 2
premium
bond each point = bond’s carrying
100 value
= 𝐏𝟎 +⁄− amort. of disc./pr.
constant-yield price trajectory
discount
bond
T
- what if r ↑ 100 bps before first coupon
1/ Buy and hold: 2/ 4 yr. inv. horizon (T = 0 par bond)
𝐅𝐕𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐩𝐨𝐧𝐬 = 86.4754 𝐅𝐕𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐩𝐨𝐧𝐬 = 27.6092
(N = 10, PMT = 6.2, PV = 0, 𝐈&𝐘 = 7.2) (N = 4, PV = 0, PMT = 6.2, 𝐈&𝐘 = 7.2)
Total PV = 186.4754
𝟏#
𝐏𝐕𝐛𝐨𝐧𝐝 = 95.2627 (T = 4 discount
(N = 6, FV = 100, PMT = 6.2, 𝐈&𝐘 = 7.2) bond
)
horizon yield = 8𝐅𝐕1𝐏𝐕9 𝐓
- 1 𝟏'
horizon yield = 𝟏𝟐𝟐. 𝟖𝟕𝟏𝟗 𝟒
- 1 = 5.28%
𝟏' : =
= :𝟏𝟖𝟔. 𝟒𝟕𝟓𝟒= 𝟏𝟎𝟎
𝟏𝟎
- 1 = 6.4295% (vs. 6.2%)
𝟏𝟎𝟎
(vs. 6.2%)
48
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Page 3
- 2 offsetting types of risk:
reinvestment risk - buy and hold only has this
price risk
𝐏𝐓 ↑ if r ↓ inverse price/yield
𝐏𝐓 ↓ if r ↑ relationship
Page 4
neg.
gap
49
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Page 5
quoted as an
= IRR (array) 𝐂𝐅𝟏 annualized stat
r = 6.2 (in years)
𝚺𝐂𝐅
- also called the bond’s or
portfolio’s cash flow yield
Page 6
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a. define, calculate, and interpret modified duration, money duration, and the
price value of a basis point (PVBP)
b. explain how a bond’s maturity, coupon, and yield level affect its interest rate
risk
51
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𝐝𝐏𝐕
I O
𝐝𝐫 = %∆𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 for a ∆yield ⇒ %∆𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 = -ModDur × ∆yield
𝐏𝐕
calibrated for
100 bps change in yield
Page 2
52
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Page 3
ApproxModDur/ ∆y = 100 bps ↑ ➞ 𝐏𝐕2
↓ ➞ 𝐏𝐕+
rise = 𝐏𝐕, - 𝐏𝐕A
𝐏𝐕( run = 2 ∆yield
Page 4
53
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Page 5
discount
bond
perpetuity
premium
bond
time to maturity
Page 6
MacDur
coupon payment ➞ nearest CF falls off
➞ weight shifts to further
cash flows
time to maturity
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c. calculate portfolio duration and convexity and explain the limitations of these
measures
55
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convexity adjustment
Page 2
5 yr., 3.2% semi @ 100
W.
𝟏 × 𝟐 × . 𝟎𝟏𝟓𝟕
(𝟏. 𝟎𝟏𝟔)𝟐
non-linearity
𝟕 × 𝟖 × . 𝟎𝟏𝟒𝟑
(𝟏. 𝟎𝟏𝟔)𝟐
𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐭 × 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐭A𝟏 × 𝐖
fixed rate bond will have greater convexity: (𝟏 + 𝐈𝐑𝐑)𝟐
per period
the longer the time-to-maturity i.e. anything
÷
the lower the coupon that leads to
(𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐝𝐬/𝐲𝐫. )𝟐
the lower its ytm higher ModDur for
fixed rate bonds
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Page 3
another factor is dispersion of cash flows
- for 2 bonds with the same duration, the one with the
greater dispersion of cash flows will have the greater convexity
Page 4
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a. explain why effective duration and effective convexity are the most
appropriate measures of interest rate risk for bonds with embedded options
c. define key rate duration and describe its use to measure price sensitivity of
fixed-income instruments to benchmark yield curve changes
58
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positive
convexity
Page 2
➞ positive convexity
throughout
59
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Page 3
b 𝐊𝐑𝐃𝐫𝐤 = 𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐃𝐮𝐫
𝐤6𝟏
- 𝐊𝐑𝐃𝐫𝐤 = ∆𝐏𝐕 𝟏
➞ (- 𝐊𝐑𝐃𝐫𝐤 × ∆𝐫𝐤 ) = ∆𝐏𝐕 = %∆𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥
𝐏𝐕 ∆𝐫𝐤 𝐏𝐕
Page 4
e.g./
𝐏𝐕𝟐 𝐏𝐕 𝐏𝐕
! × 𝟏. 𝟗𝟗0 + ! 𝟓 × 𝟒. 𝟗𝟑𝟖0 + ! 𝟏𝟎 × 𝟗. 𝟖𝟐𝟖0 = 5.36741
𝚺𝐏𝐕 𝚺𝐏𝐕 𝚺𝐏𝐕
0.711335 + 1.675139 + 2.980938 = 5.36741
(𝐊𝐑𝐃𝟐 ) (𝐊𝐑𝐃𝟓 ) (𝐊𝐑𝐃𝟏𝟎 )
e.g./
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Page 5
EffDur/ModDur ➞ analytical duration ➞ theoretical change
in 𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 for ∆yield or ∆curve
➞ curve ↑, spreads ↓
curve ↓, spread ↑
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Credit Risk
a. describe credit risk and its components, probability of default and loss given
default
b. describe the uses of ratings from credit rating agencies and their limitations
62
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Credit Risk
Page 1
- credit risk - risk of loss due to default
Top-down
(macro)
Country Conditions Currency
- geopolitical - macro - domestic vs. foreign
- legal/political environment
Credit Risk
Bottom-up/
Capacity Capital Character Covenants Collateral
- ability to - level of - quality of - legal terms - quality and
service debt equity management of debt value of
agreement assets
quantitative
qualitative
Page 2
Sources of credit risk/
illiquidity risk
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Page 3
positive relationships
- positive
negative relationship
relationship
Page 4
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Page 5
Page 6
narrowest
expansion
- business/credit
- spreads contraction - spreads
cycle:
contract widen
widest
- addition of credit risk (i.e. HY)
portfolio diversification - in a bond portfolio
- lower 𝛒 with IG and sovereign yields
capital appreciation - equity-like performance over the business
cycle
equity-like returns with lower volatility
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Page 7
Factors affecting yield spread:
higher credit rating ➞ lower yield
longer maturity, higher yield (within each credit rating)
IG - OAS < (𝐇𝐘𝐎𝐀𝐒 − 𝐈𝐆𝐎𝐀𝐒 )
HY inversion
- reflects near-term
credit market anticipating
tightness credit cycle
contraction
Page 8
66
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Page 9
Price Impact of Spreads
yield = 𝐫𝐟 + spread
∴ ∆spread = ∆yield
67
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Page 2
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Page 3
5/ External status
- reserve currency status - fully convertible and
frequently held by foreign central banks and other
investors (foreign currency assets - stocks, bonds)
- increases ability to access foreign investor base
Page 4
1/ Fiscal strength
𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐥𝐮𝐬/𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭1
𝐆𝐃𝐏 - a measure of fiscal discipline
2/ Economic growth and stability
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Page 5
3/ External Stability - depends on whether foreign investors
are able and willing to hold assets in a country’s
currency
solvency
liquidity
Page 6
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Page 7
general obligation bonds - unsecured and backed by
general revenues of the issuing non-sovereign
- supported by taxing authority
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c. describe the seniority rankings of debt, secured versus unsecured debt and the
priority of claims in bankruptcy, and their impact on credit ratings
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IG - affirmative (pos.)
HY - restrictive (neg.)
acceptable return
over cost of capital
size/timing of cash
more important for HY flows sufficient to
meet debt obligations
unsecured - asset stable/predictable CFs
quality
secured low business risk
less competitive
pressures
Page 2
Quantitative factors/
company growth
relative to GDP
business/credit cycle 𝐂𝐅
`𝐃𝐞𝐛𝐭
𝐎𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬
ability to
meet short term
obligations outside
of CFs or asset sales
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Page 3
Assess the financial health of a company
Identify trends over time
Compare within/across industries
Assess a firm’s ability to service debt from operations alone
Denominator/
prior to capital costs Interest expense + lease payments
and taxes
( or - Interest income)
EBITDA may be
used
EBITDA
EBITDAR
debt in numerator:
larger = worse CFO - dividends paid
debt in denominator:
larger = better debt obligations may also include lease
payments and other off-balance sheet obligations
Page 4
little or no recovery
in default
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Page 5
Recovery rates/
- all creditors at the same seniority level are treated as one
class
- defaulted debt will continue to trade near its
expected recovery rates (varies by seniority)
- recovery rates: vary by industry
vary depending on when they occur in the business
cycle and the industry life cycle
(growth vs. secular decline)
represent an average across industries and
companies
priority of claims is a legal standard ➞ parties can agree otherwise
- senior claims may offer concessions to junior claims to
speed the process
minimize legal/accounting fees
minimize customer and management flight
Page 6
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Fixed-Income Securitization
b. describe securitization, including the parties and the roles they play
77
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Page 2
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Page 3
Benefits to investors: - access to a return series typically
not available via direct access
- can tailor interest rate risk (time tranche) and credit
risk (credit tranche) exposure
Benefits to economies and financial markets
increase liquidity versus original loan
increase market efficiency
increase sources of capital to finance assets
Risks timing of CFs
- as rates ↑, payment speed ↓ - extension risk
- as rates ↓, payment speed ↑ - contraction risk
Page 4
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Page 5
Legal documents
purchase agreement - between seller and SPE
- outlines representations and warranties seller makes
about collateral
prospectus - describes the structure of the securitization, payments
to servicer and bond holders, list credit enhancements
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a. describe characteristics and risks of covered bonds and how they differ from
other asset-backed securities
d. describe collateralized debt obligations, including their cash flows and risks
81
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dual recourse
Page 2
Types
1/ hard bullet covered bonds - payments are accelerated with default
- issuer sells loans to meet full redemption
2/ soft bullet covered bonds - payments are delayed with default
e.g./ lack of pre-payments
- extend final redemption date usually up to 1 yr.
3/ conditional pass-through covered bonds - convert to pass-through after
original maturity date
➞ covered bonds usually carry lower credit risk and offer lower yields
(soft has lower credit risk than hard)
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Page 3
SPE Credit Enhancements/ - internal
overcollateralization - sell 100M mortgages to SPE, get 95M cash
- retain 5% equity position
excess spread - avg. coupon on underlying collateral (aggregate interest
collected) less than avg. coupon on bonds (aggregate
interest paid)
6% w.a. int. 4.5% coupon bonds
Page 4
Waterfall
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Page 5
- revolving period ➞ early P
payments begin if specific
events occur
rapid amortization provision
if defaults > threshold
during revolving period, P late, membership
repayments begin overcollateralization and subordination are
typically used
Solar ABS ➞ solar loans/leases
- may qualify as green bonds (appeals to ESG funds)
- solar loans on residential homes ➞ must be a junior mortgage on
property if an existing mortgage is in place
- also may contain a pre-funding period ➞ the ability to acquire
loans/leases after the closing date of the bond issuance
- use overcollateralization, subordination, excess spread
Page 6
pre-pay.
gains/losses
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Page 7
- senior/mezzanine
earn higher returns
than comparable
products
equity-like risk
- residual of
types: cash flow CLOs (most common) agg. CF in - agg. CF out
market value CLOs - tranche returns depend on MVp
synthetic CLOs - collateral pool is created with credit derivatives
- performance of assets determines the ability to pay tranches
- collateral manager must meet performance tests and collateral limits
- if manager fails, provision is triggered requiring payoff of
all P to senior bond class until tests are met
- effectively deleverages the CLO
Page 8
collateral portfolio not finalized until after the transaction closes
CLO lifecycle 8-10 yrs.
85
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Page 9
Asset pool - typically senior secured loans (avg. credit rating of B)
- industry diversification criteria
- max % of non-senior secured loans
- limitations on amount of CCC rated loans
- CLO equity investor is the owner of the pool of loans and the
CLO debt investors provide the financing to acquire the pool of
loans
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87
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MBS
yield
Page 2
- 2 components:
2/ Extension risk - when interest rates rise, pre-payments slow down
- extends maturity of MBS which increases duration
- lower cash flows for reinvestment when rates are higher
88
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Page 3
𝒕𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐞 = price - deposit
Mortgage LTV ratio = 𝐛𝐨𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐬
𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐲 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 - over time, P
payments reduce
first lien on over time, ↑ HP numerator
underlying property increases denominator
- if default, foreclosure
and sale lower = less credit risk
incl. mortgage
➞ DTI - debt-to-income = 𝐝𝐞𝐛𝐭
- lower = better 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 - monthly
(pre-tax gross)
Page 4
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Page 5
in default:
a) recourse - lender has a claim against borrower in default
if LTV > 100% (underwater mortgage)
- common in Canada and Europe
b) non-recourse - lender only has a claim against the property
- common in U.S.
- introduces the notion of strategic default
if LTV ratio > 100%, borrower can walk away even
if they can afford to make the payments
Page 6
mortgages
are
securitized
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Page 7
redistribute
pre-payment risk
- securitize other pass-through MBS or multiple loan pools
Page 8
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Page 9
other CMO structures:
floating rate tranches - often subject to both a cap and a floor
- can also be structured as an inverse floater
Residual tranches - collect any remaining cash flows after all
obligations to other tranches are met
Page 10
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Last Revised: 06/02/2023
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Call protection
defeasance - portfolio of gov’t. securities purchased that
fully replicates the remaining cash flows of the
mortgage (not the CMBS)
Balloon maturity provision - commercial real estate loans are not
fully amortizing
- payments are 𝒊 and maybe some P
- remaining P ➞ balloon payment end of YR5 or YR10
- balloon risk - borrower may not meet payment, may
be unable to roll-over loan, or cannot sell
for balloon payment amount
- lender may extend loan ➞ ‘workout period’
- creates extension risk in the CMBS
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CMBS risks
concentrated pool of loans - a few, heterogeneous
- a single default can have a significant impact
- due diligence involves analysis of underlying loan pool
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