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ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻓﺔ
ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺱ
ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ
ﺃﻨﺸﻁﺔ
ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺱ
ﺘﻤـﺎﺭﻴـﻥ ﻭ ﻤﺸﻜــﻼﺕ
ﺍﻟﺤـﻠــــــﻭل
ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ:
( ،ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﺃﻥ ﺘﺼل ﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻏﺎﻟﺘﻭﻥ ) Galton ﻋﻠﻰ ﻟﻭﺤﺔ
ﻟﻠﻜﺭﻴﺔ 10 ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﻋﺒﺭﻫﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ .ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ،ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ،
ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ . B ﻜﻲ ﺘﺼل ﺍﻟﻰ ﺤﻅﻭﻅ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺼل 32ﺤﻅ ﻜﻲ ﺘﺼل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ Aﻭ 10ﺤﻅﻭﻅ ﻤﻥ 32
ﻻﺤﻅ ﺃﻥ :ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ) ﻭ ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﺼﻑ ( ﻴﺴﺎﻭﻱ 1
ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﻭﺼﻭل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ Cﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﻴﺠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻤﺭ ﺒـ Aﺃﻭ . Bﻓﻲ ﻜل
1 10 1 10 20
´ ´ + =
2 32 2 32 64
ﻭ ﻫﻜﺫﺍ ﻨﺘﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜﺴﻭﺭ ﻤﻘﺎﻤﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻫﻲ ﻗﻭﻯ
ﺍﻟﺤﺩ ﻟﻨﻴﻭﺘﻥ.
ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ1
ﺴﺒﺭ ﺃﺭﺍﺀ ﺤﻭل ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺭﻨﺕ:
ﺴﻨﺔ ﻭ ﻤﻥ 50 ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺸﺨﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺠﻭﺒﻴﻥ ،ﺃﻋﻤﺎﺭﻫﻡ ﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﻋﻥ < 30 %
ﺼﺭﺤﻭﺍ ﺒﻌﺩﻡ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻤﻬﻡ ﺒﺎﻻﻨﺘﺭﻨﺕ. 85 % ﺒﻴﻨﻬﻡ
ﺒﺎﻻﻨﺘﺭﻨﺕ
ﺇﻟﻰ50ﺴﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ25
ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ 50ﺴﻨﺔ
1000 ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ
ﺸﺨﺹ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺠﻭﺒﻴﻥ.
ﺴﻨﺔ " . 25 " : Aﺍﻟﺸﺨﺹ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺠﻭﺏ ﻋﻤﺭﻩ ﺃﻗل ﻤﻥ
ﺴﻨﺔ ". 50 ": Bﺍﻟﺸﺨﺹ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺠﻭﺏ ﻋﻤﺭﻩ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ
ﺴﻨﺔ .ﻤﺎ 50 ﺇﺫﺍ ﻋﻠﻤﺕ ﺍﻵﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺹ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺠﻭﺏ ﻋﻤﺭﻩ ﻻ ﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﻋﻥ
ﺍﻟﺤل:
ﺇﻛﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ: -1
ﺒﺎﻻﻨﺘﺭﻨﺕ
40
´ . 1000 = 400 : 1 ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل
100
. 1000 - 400 = 600 : 2 ﻤﻥ ﺍﺠل
35
´ . 1000 = 350 : 3 ﻤﻥ ﺍﺠل
100
80
´ . 350 = 280 : 4 ﻤﻥ ﺍﺠل
100
. 350 - 280 = 70 : 5 ﻤﻥ ﺍﺠل
30
´ . 1000 = 300 : 6 ﻤﻥ ﺍﺠل
100
85
´ . 300 = 255 : 7 ﻤﻥ ﺍﺠل
100
-2ﺃ( ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﺤﺴﺎﺒﻬﺎ ﻤﻌﻁﺎﺓ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺹ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻜل ﻨﺴﺏ
ﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ.
ﺴﻨﺔ = . 50 ﺴﻨﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻗل ﻤﻥ 50 ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺹ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺠﻭﺏ ﻟﻪ ?:B
) (
P B = 0, 70 ﻭ ﻤﻨﻪ: ) (
)P B = 1 - P ( B : Pﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ )( B
ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ: ﺝ(ﻨﻌﺒﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺜﺔ A I I
ﺴﻨﺔ ﻭ ﻤﻬﺘﻤﻭﻥ 25 ﺸﺨﺹ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﺭﻫﻡ ﺘﻘل ﻋﻥ 280 ﻴﺒﻴﻥ ﻟﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺃﻥ:
p ( A U I ) = 0, 35 + 0, 40 - 0, 28
ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ Iﻤﺤﻘﻘﺔ. B ﺴﻨﺔ .ﻨﺤﺴﺏ ﻋﻨﺩﺌﺫ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺜﺔ 50 ﻋﻥ
)( I
P B ﺃﻭ ﺘﻜﺘﺏ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ PI ( B ) :
255
= ) PI ( B ﻤﻨﻪ= 0, 425 : ﻭ
600
ﺸﺨﺹ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﺘﻤﺔ ﺒﺎﻻﻨﺘﺭﻨﺕ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ 345ﺸﺨﺹ 600 ﻤﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟـ
" Bﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ Iﻤﺤﻘﻘﺔ " ﻭ " Bﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ Iﻤﺤﻘﻘﺔ " ﺤﺎﺩﺜﺘﺎﻥ ﻤﺘﻌﺎﻜﺴﺘﺎﻥ.
ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ2
ﻨﺴﺎﺀ ﻭ 51% ﺒﻴﻨﺕ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺃﺠﺭﻴﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺘﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻥ
ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﺠﺎل ﻟﻡ ﻴﺫﻫﺒﻭﺍ ﻗﻁ ﺇﻟﻰ 15% ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺎﺀ ﻭ 20% ﺭﺠﺎل ﺃﻥ 49%
ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺭﺴﺔ.ﻨﺨﺘﺎﺭ ﻓﺭﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ؛ ﻜل ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻨﻔﺱ
ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎل.
ﺃﺴﺘﻨﺘﺞ ) . P ( C
ﺍﻟﺤل:
0,49
0,85
C ( )
P F I C = 0,85 ´ 0, 49 = 0,4165
F
0,15
C ( )
P F I C = 0,15 ´ 0, 49 = 0,0735
1
ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻁﺔ ﺒﺩﺍﺌﺭﺓ ﻤﻌﻁﺎﺓ ﺒﺎﻟﻔﺭﺽ ﺍﻹﺜﻨﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻘﻴﻴﻥ
ﻤﺴﺎﻭﻴﺎ ﻟﻠﻭﺍﺤﺩ.
) (
PF C = 0, 20 ، ﻨﺠﺩP ( F ) = 0, 51 : -2ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻁﻴﺎﺕ
Fﻫﻲ ":ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﺎﺭ ﺇﻤﺭﺓ ﺘﺫﻫﺏ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺭﺴﺔ". ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺜﺔ I C -3ﺃ(
(
C = (F I C) U F IC ) ﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ:
(
P (C ) = P ( F I C ) + P F I C ) ﻓﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ:
) (
) P C = 1 - P (C
ﻭﻤﻨﻪ ﻨﺴﺘﻨﺘﺞ:
Iﺍﻟﻌﺪ:
– 1ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺪﺃ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻟﻠﻌﺪ :
ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺇﺟﺮﺍء ﻣﻌﻴﻦ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺑـ n1 :ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻭ ﺇﺟﺮﺍء ﺛﺎﻥ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺑـ n2ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ
٬ ... ٬ﺛﻢ ﺇﺟﺮﺍء ﻣﻦ ﺭﺗﺒﺔ kﻳﺘﻢ ﺑـ nkﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍءﺍﺕ ﺗﺘﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ
ﺍﻟﺘﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﺑـ n1 ´ n2 ´ ... ´ nkﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ .
ﻤﺜﺎل :
ﺃﺼﻨﺎﻑ ﻤﻥ ﻭ4 ﺃﺼﻨﺎﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻡ ﻭﺼﻨﻔﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺀ 3 ﻴﻘﺩﻡ ﻤﻁﻌﻡ
ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻜﻬﺔ.
-ﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻭﺠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻟﻠﻤﻁﻌﻡ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻜل ﻭﺠﺒﺔ
ﺍﻟﺤل :
ﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﻭ4 ﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻡ ﻭﻁﺭﻴﻘﺘﻴﻥ ﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺀ 3 -ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ
ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻜﻬﺔ.
ﻭ ﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺩﺃ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﻟﻠﻌﺩﺩ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻘﺩﻡ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻌﻡ
ﻭﺠﺒﺔ ﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ . 24 ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ 3´ 2 ´ 4 ﺍﻟﻭﺠﺒﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ ﻫﻭ :
5،4،3،2 ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻴﻨﻪ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ 3 ﻜﻡ ﻋﺩﺩﺍ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎ ﻤﻥ
ﺍﻟﺤل :
ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ 4 .ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ : abc ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل 3 ﻜل ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎ ﻤﻥ
b ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﺍﺕ 4 ﻭ c ﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻵﺤﺎﺩ
ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ :
ﻋﻨﺼﺭﺍ . Eﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ n ﻋﺩﺩﺍﻥ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺎﻥ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﺩﻭﻤﻴﻥ nﻭ p
ﻛﻞ ﻋﻨﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ) ( a1 , a 2 ,..., a pﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ pﻋﻨﺼﺮﺍً
ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ Eﺣﻴﺚ a p ,..., a 2 , a1 :ﻫﻲ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻣﻦ Eﻟﻴﺴﺖ
ﺟﻤﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ .
ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ :
ﻟﺘﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ) . ( a1 , a 2 ,..., a pﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ nﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮ a1ﻣﻦ E
ﻭ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ nﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮ a 2ﻣﻦ ... Eﻭ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ nﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ
ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮ a pﻣﻦ . Eﻭ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ a p ,..., a 2 , a1ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ
ﺍﻟﺘﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﺑـ n ´ n ´ ... ´ n :ﺃﻱ :ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺫﺍﺕ pﻋﻨﺼﺮﺍً ﻣﻦ
ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ Eﺫﺍﺕ nﻋﻨﺼﺮ ﻫﻮ . n p
ﻤﺜﺎل :
ﺍﻷﻋﺩﺍﺩ 9,.....2,1 ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﺸﻜﻴﻠﻪ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ 6 ﻜﻡ ﻋﺩﺩﺍ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎ ﻤﻥ
ﺍﻟﺤل :
ﻋﻨﺼﺭﺍ ﻤﻥ p .ﻨﺴﻤﻰ ﺘﺭﺘﻴﺒﻪ ﺫﺍﺕ p£n ﻋﺩﺩﺍﻥ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺎﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ: nﻭ p
ﻋﻨﺼﺭﺍ ﻤﺘﻤﺎﻴﺯﺓ ﻤﺜﻨﻰ ﻤﺜﻨﻰ. p ﻋﻨﺼﺭﺍ ﻜل ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ n ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ
ﻤﻥ a1 ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺼﺭ n .ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ ﻟﺘﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺒﺔ ) ( a , a ,..., a
1 2 p
E
ﻭ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ n - 1ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮ a 2ﻣﻦ ) Eﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ (
ﻭ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ n - 2ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮ a 3ﻣﻦ E
M
ﻭ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ) n - ( p - 1ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮ a pﻣﻦ E
ﻭ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺪﺃ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻟﻠﻌﺪﺩ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﺍﺋﻖ ﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ a1 , a 2 ,..., a p
ﺑﻬﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﻫﻮ n ( n - 1)( n - 2 ) ...( n - p + 1) :ﻭ ﻧﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ
Anpﻭ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﺒﺎﺕ :
)Anp = n ( n - 1)( n - 2 ) ´ ... ´ ( n - p + 1
ﻤﺜﺎل :
ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻤﺘﻤﺎﻴﺯﺓ ﻤﺜﻨﻰ ﻤﺜﻨﻰ ﺃﻱ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻜﺭﺭﺓ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ 6 ﻜﻡ ﻋﺩﺩﺍ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎ ﻤﻥ
8 ﻫﻭ a5 ﻋﺩﺩ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ 9 ﻫﻭ a6 ﻋﺩﺩ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ
6 ﻫﻭ a3 ﻋﺩﺩ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ 7 ﻫﻭ a4 ﻋﺩﺩ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ
. 4 ﻫﻭ a1 ﻋﺩﺩ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ 5 ﻫﻭ a2 ﻋﺩﺩ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ
n ﺫﺍﺕ E ﻋﺩﺩ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﺩﻭﻡ .ﻨﺴﻤﻰ ﺘﺒﺩﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ n
. ﻤﻥ E ﻋﻨﺼﺭﺍ n ﻋﻨﺼﺭﺍﹰ ﻜل ﺘﺭﺘﻴﺒﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ
ﻤﺜﺎل :
9 ، … ، ﺍﻷﻋﺩﺍﺩ2 ، 1 ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﺸﻜﻴﻠﻪ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ 9 ﻜﻡ ﻋﺩﺩﺍ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎ ﻤﻥ
ﺍﻟﺤل :
!n
!Ann = n ﻭ = Anp ﻭ ﻤﻨﻪ :
!) ( n - p
ﻤﺜﺎل :
ænö
÷ ç
ﺃﻭ Cnp ﻨﺭﻤﺯ ﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻓﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺒﺎﻟﺭﻤﺯ :
è pø
ﻤﺜﺎل :
ﻤﻤﺜﻠﻴﻥ ﻟﻠﻘﺴﻡ. 3 ﺘﻠﻤﻴﺫﺍ .ﺃﺭﺍﺩﻭﺍ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ 40 ﻴﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻗﺴﻡ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﻲ ﻤﻥ
ﺍﻟﺤل :
ﻋﻨﺼﺭ. 40 ﻋﻨﺎﺼﺭ ﻤﻥ 3 ﻤﻤﺜﻠﻴﻥ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺠﺯﺀ ﻤﻜﻭﻥ 3 ﺇﻥ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ
Cnp = Cnn- p؛ Cnp = Cnp--11 + Cnp-1 Cn0 = 1؛ Cn1 = n؛ Cnn = 1؛
!n ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻫﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ :
= C np
! ( n - p )! p
ﺃﻤﺜﻠﺔ :
. Cnn = 1 ﻭ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ 1 -ﻗﻁﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻠﺙ ﻤﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩﺍ ﻴﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﻜل ﻤﻨﻬﺎ
Cnp-1 ﻫﻭ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ Cnp -ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻷﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻠﺙ ﻓﻜل ﻋﺩﺩ
ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻴﻥ. Cnp-1 ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ Cnp--11 ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻘﻊ ﻓﻭﻗﻪ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ
ﻤﺜﺎل :
n=5
p 0
1 2 3 4 5
n
0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 0 0 0 0
2 1 2 1 0 0 0
3 1 3 3 1 0 0
4 1 4 6 4 1 0
5 1 5 10 10 5 1
ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺭﺝ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﻌﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻠﺙ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩﻱ. C55 , C54 , C53 , C52 , C51 , C50 ﺍﻷﻋﺩﺍﺩ
p ( A) ¹ 0 ﺤﺎﺩﺜﺘﺎﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ : B ﻭ A ،W ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻤﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ p
: 1 ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ
) p A ( B1 U B2 ) = pA ( B1 ) + p A ( B2
)p ( A I B) = p ( B) ´ pB ( A) = p ( A) ´ p A ( B
: 2 ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ
ﺃﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺘﺎﻥ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻭ ﻓﻘﻁ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ : B ﻭ A ﻨﻘﻭل ﻋﻥ ﺤﺎﺩﺜﺘﻴﻥ
ﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺘﻴﻥ. B ﻭ A ﺤﺎﺩﺜﺘﻴﻥ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺘﻴﻥ ﻓﺈﻥ B ﻭ A ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ
ﻨﺴﺤﺏ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻜﻴﺱ 6 ﺇﻟﻰ 1 ﻗﺭﻴﺼﺎﺕ ﻤﺭﻗﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ 6 ﻴﺤﺘﻭﻱ ﻜﻴﺱ ﻋﻠﻰ
ﻗﺭﻴﺼﺘﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺁﻥ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ.
ﺍﻟﺤل :
!6
= C 62 = 15
!( 6 - 2 )!´ 2
7 ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺜﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﺒﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻤﻴﻥ ﻴﺴﺎﻭﻱ A ﻟﺘﻜﻥ
ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ.
ﺍﻟﺤل :
4 8 8
= ) P ( J 1 I V2 ) = P ( J 1 ) .PJ1 ( V2 = ´
12 11 33
8 4 8
= ´ = P ( V1 I J 2 ) = P ( V1 ) .PV1 ( J 2 )
12 11 33
P ( J1 I J 2 ) + P ( V1 I V2 ) = P ( J1 ) .PJ1 ( J 2 ) + P ( V1 ) .PV1 ( V2 )
4 3 8 7
= ´ + ´
12 11 12 11
1 14 17
= + =
11 33 33
: ﻧﻤﺬﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺿﻌﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺷﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ2
4
p V ( J2 ) = p( V1 IJ2) = p( V1) ´pV1 ( J2)
1
11
8 4 8
= ´ =
12 11 33
8
p ( v1 ) =
12
7
p v ( V2 ) = p( V1 IV2) =p( V1) ´pV1 ( V2)
1
11
8 7 14
= ´ =
12 11 33
-ﺩﺴﺘﻭﺭ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ : III
ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻹﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﺘﺠﺭﺒﺔ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ. W
. W ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻤﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ P
ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ :
ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺠﺯﺌﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ Wﺇﺫﺍ ﻭﻓﻘﻁ A1 , A2 ,..., An ﻨﻘﻭل ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﻭﺍﺩﺙ
ﻤﺜﺎل :
: ﻫﻲ ﺍﻹﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻨﺠﺩ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻤﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺭﺩ ﺭﻤﻲ ﻋﻨﺩ
}W = {1,2,3,4,5,6
" ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺭﻗﻡ ﺃﻭﻟﻰ " A ﺤﻴﺙ : C , B, A ﻟﺘﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﻭﺍﺩﺙ
" 6 ﺃﻭ 1 " ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ C " ؛ 4 "ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺭﻗﻡ ﻤﻀﺎﻋﻑ ﻟﻠﻌﺩﺩ B
}A = {2,3,5} , B = {4 , }C = {1,6 ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ :
ﺤﻭﺍﺩﺙ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﺤﻴﻠﺔ ﻭ ﻜل ﺤﺎﺩﺜﺘﻴﻥ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻏﻴﺭ A, B, C ﻨﻼﺤﻅ ﺃﻥ
ﻟﻠﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ . W
ﻤﺒﺭﻫﻨﺔ ) :ﺩﺴﺘﻭﺭ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ (
ﻣﺜﺎﻝ : 1
ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ W = {1,2,3,4,5,6} :
}A = {2,3,5
}B = {4 ﺤﻴﺙ : W ﺘﺠﺯﺌﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ) ( A, B, C
}C = {1,6
ﺍﻟﺤل :
4 2
= ) P (E = -1ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ :
6 3
-2ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ :ﺒﺎﺴﺘﻌﻤﺎل ﺩﺴﺘﻭﺭ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ :
) P ( E ) = PA ( E ) .P ( A) + PB ( E ) .P ( B ) + PC ( E ) .P ( C
2 1 3
= ) P (C , = )P (B , = )P ( A ﺤﻴﺙ :
6 6 6
2
P ( E I A) 6 2 ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ:
= ) PA ( E = =
)P ( A 3 3
6
2
. = )P ( E I A ﻭ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ : }E I A = {3,5 ﻷﻥ :
6
1
P ( E I B) 6
= ) PB ( E = =1 ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ:
)P ( B 1
6
1
ﻷﻥ E I B = {4} :ﻭ ﻣﻨﻪ p ( E I B) = :
6
1
p( E I C) 6 1
= ) pC ( E = = ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ :
) p (C 2 2
6
1
= )p(E I C ﻭ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ : ﻷﻥ E I C = {6} :
6
ﺇﺫﻥ p ( E ) = p A ( E ) . p ( A) + p ( E ) . p ( B) + pc ( E ) . p ( C ) :
2 2 3 1 1 2
= ). p(E ﻭﻤﻨﻪ : ´ p ( E ) = . + 1. + +
3 3 6 6 2 6
ﻤﺜﺎل : 2
ﻜﺭﺍﺕ ﺨﻀﺭﺍﺀ ﻭ ﻜﺭﺘﺎﻥ 3 ﻜﺭﺍﺕ ﺤﻤﺭﺍﺀ ﻭ 5 ﻴﺤﺘﻭﻱ ﻜﻴﺱ ﻋﻠﻰ
ﺒﻴﻀﺎﻭﻴﻴﻥ.
ﺍﻟﺤل :
3
V pR1 ( V2 ) =
9
5 2
p ( R1 ) = R pR ( B2 ) = B
10 1
9
4
R p R1 ( R 2 ) =
9
ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺏ ﺍﻷﻭل ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺏ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ
. ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺭﻴﻥ1
ﺇﻟﻰ .6 ﻤﻥ1 ﺯﻫﺭﺘﻲ ﻨﺭﺩ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺯﻴﻔﺘﻴﻥ ﻟﻭﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺎﻥ ﻭﺃﻭﺠﻪ ﻜل ﻤﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻤﺭﻗﻤﺔ
ﻨﺭﻤﻲ ﻫﺫﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺭﺩﻴﻥ ﻭﻨﺴﺠل ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻤﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺫﻴﻥ ﻴﻅﻬﺭﺍﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺠﻬﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻭﻴﻴﻥ.
. ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺭﻴﻥ2
ﺇﻟﻰ .6ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺭﻗﻡ ﺯﻭﺠﻲ 1 ﺯﻫﺭﺓ ﻨﺭﺩ ﻤﺯﻴﻔﺔ ﺃﻭﺠﻬﻬﺎ ﻤﺭﻗﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ
ﻨﺴﺤﺏ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻜﻴﺱ ﻜﺭﻴﺘﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺒﻌﺩ ﻜل ﺴﺤﺏ ﻨﻌﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﺭﻴﺔ
. ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺭﻴﻥ4
6,5,4,3,2,1 ﺼﻤﻡ ﻤﻜﻌﺏ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺘﺠﺎﻨﺱ ﻭ ﻜﺘﺒﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻭﺠﻬﻪ ﺍﻷﻋﺩﺍﺩ
ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﻟﻘﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺃﻓﻘﻲ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺃﻱ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﺘﻨﺎﺴﺒﺎ ﻤﻊ
ﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ.
– ﺴﺤﺏ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﻗﺘﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻤﻊ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺤﻭﺒﺔ ﻗﺒل 3
ﺴﺤﺏ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ.
. ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺭﻴﻥ6
ﺘﻼﻤﻴﺫ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﺭﻫﻡ 5 ﺴﻨﺔ ﻭ 16 ﺘﻼﻤﻴﺫ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﺭﻫﻡ 10 ﻴﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻗﺴﻡ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﻲ ﻤﻥ
ﺴﻨﺔ ،ﺃﺭﺍﺩﻭﺍ ﺘﺸﻜﻴل ﻟﺠﻨﺔ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ 18 ﺘﻠﻤﻴﺫﺍ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﺭﻫﻡ 20 ﺴﻨﺔ ﻭ 17
ﺘﻠﻤﻴﺫﻴﻥ.
. ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺭﻴﻥ9
100
a 70 .b 30 ﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﺤﺩ ) (a + b ﻋﻨﺩ ﻨﺸﺭ
. ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺭﻴﻥ10
n n
ﺜﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻤﻴﻊ : ) (1 - 1 ﻭ ) (1 + 1 ﺍﻨﺸﺭ ﻜل ﻤﻥ
1 1
£ n -1
n! 2
. ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺭﻴﻥ12
ﺇﺫﺍ 9,8,7,6,5,4,3, 2,1,0 ﻜﻡ ﻋﺩﺩﺍ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﺸﻜﻴﻠﻪ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ
. ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺭﻴﻥ14
ﻗﻁﻌﺔ ﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺼﻨﻌﺕ ﻤﺯﻴﻔﺔ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺭﻤﻴﻬﺎ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺠﻪ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ
. B ﻀﻌﻑ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺠﻪ ﺍﻵﺨﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺤﻤل ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻑ A ﻴﺤﻤل ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻑ
ﺩﺝ ﻭﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺠﻪ 100 ﻴﻌﻁﻲ ﺭﺒﺢ A – ﻨﻔﺭﺽ ﺃﻥ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺠﻪ 1
ﺩﺝ. 50 ﻴﻌﻁﻲ ﺨﺴﺎﺭﺓ B
ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺄﺨﺫ ﻗﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﺭﺒﺢ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺨﺴﺎﺭﺓ. X ﻟﻴﻜﻥ
X ﺃﻜﺘﺏ ﻗﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ
X ﺃﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻷﻤل ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻴﺎﺘﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ
X ﺃﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ
. ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺭﻴﻥ15
، 30% ﺃﻗﺴﺎﻡ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺴﺎﻫﻡ ﺒـ 3 ﻴﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﺼﻨﻊ ﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺠﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ
ﻟﻼﺴﺘﻌﻤﺎل.
. ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺭﻴﻥ16
ﻜﺭﺍﺕ ﺴﻭﺩﺍﺀ. 4 ﻜﺭﺍﺕ ﺤﻤﺭﺍﺀ ﻭ 6 ﻴﺤﺘﻭﻱ ﻜﻴﺱ ﻋﻠﻰ
ﻜﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺒﻌﺩ ﻜل ﺴﺤﺏ ﻨﻌﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﺭﺓ 3 ﻨﺴﺤﺏ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻜﻴﺱ
ﺤﻴﺙ : D ﻭ C – ﺍﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺜﻴﻥ 1
:ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻨﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺎ C
:ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻟﻭﻥ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ. D
– ﺍﺴﺘﻌﻤل ﺸﺠﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﻟﻨﻤﺫﺠﺔ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻌﻴﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺘﻴﻥ 2
. D ﻭ C ﻭ ﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺜﻴﻥ
ﺍﻟﺤـﻠــــــﻭل:
p( W) = 1 ﻓﺈﻥ : W ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻋﻠﻰ p ﺤﻴﺙ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻥ
ﻭﺒﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺭﻗﻡ ﺯﻭﺠﻲ ﻀﻌﻑ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺭﻗﻡ ﻓﺭﺩﻱ ﻓﺈﻥ:
p ({1,3,5} ) = a ﺒﻭﻀﻊ : )}p ({2, 4, 6} ) = 2 p ({1, 3, 5
a + 2a = 1 ﻭ ﻤﻨﻪ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻌﻭﻴﺽ ﻓﻲ ) (1ﻨﺠﺩ : ﻨﺠﺩ p ({2, 4, 6} ) = 2a :
1
ﻭ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ 3 a = 1 :ﺃﻱ = a
3
2 1
ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻅﻬﻭﺭ = ) }p ({2, 4, 6 ﻭ = ) }p ({1, 3, 5 ﺇﺫﻥ :
3 3
2 1
ﻭ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺭﻗﻡ ﺯﻭﺠﻲ ﻫﻭ ﺭﻗﻡ ﻓﺭﺩﻱ ﻫﻭ
3 3
: 2 ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ
2 2
= ) }p ({2} U {4} U {6 ﻭ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ : = )}p ({2, 4,6 ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ:
3 3
2
= ) }p ({2} ) + p ({4}) + p ({6
3
2 2
=h ﺇﺫﻥ : = 3h ﻭﻤﻨﻪ : p({2}) = p({4} ) = p({6}) = h ﻟﻜﻥ :
9 3
2
ﻫﻭ 2 ﺇﺫﻥ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ
9
1
= ) }p ({1, 3, 5 :ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ : 5 ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ
3
1
= )}p ({1} U {3} U {5 ﻭ ﻤﻨﻪ :
3
1
ﺇﺫﻥ :
= ) }p ({1} ) + p ({3} ) + p ({5
3
ﻟﻜﻦ p ({1} ) = p ({3} ) = p ({5} ) = m :
1 1
ﺇﺫﻥ 3m = :ﻭ ﻣﻨﻪ m = 1 :ﺇﺫﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﻢ 5ﻫﻮ
9 9 3
1 . ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺭﻴﻥ 3
2
3 1
4
5
6
1
2
3 2
4
5
6
1
2
3 3
4
5
6
1
2
3 4
4
5
6
1
2
3 5
4
5
6
1
2
3 6
4
5
6
ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ
– ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎل : 2
6 ´ 6 = 36 ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻫﻭ :
6 1
=p = ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎل :
36 6
–3ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺏ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺇﺭﺠﺎﻉ :
6 1
=p = ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎل :
36 5
. ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺭﻴﻥ 4
}W = {1, 2, 3,4,5,6 – ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻹﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺕ : 1
– ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻭﺍﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻁﺔ : 2
ﺃﻱ : p( W) = 1 ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ :
ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﻓﺭﺩﻴﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻭﺭﻗﺔ ﺘﺤﻤل ﺭﻗﻤﺎ ﺯﻭﺠﻴﺎ ﻭ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻓﺭﺩﻴﺎ.
C 202 = 190 – ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﺴﺤﺏ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﻗﺘﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺎ : 1
ﺯﻭﺠﻲ ﺭﻗﻡ ﺘﺤﻤل ﺇﺤﺩﺍﻫﻤﺎ ﻭﺭﻗﺘﻴﻥ ﻟﺴﺤﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﻋﺩﺩ
100 10
= p1 = ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎل :
190 19
– ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﺴﺤﺏ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﻗﺘﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻹﻋﺎﺩﺓ : 2
A202 = 20 ´ 19 = 380
-ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ ﻟﺴﺤﺏ ﻭﺭﻗﺘﻴﻥ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﻬﺎ ﻓﺭﺩﻱ ،ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ
ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﺯﻭﺠﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﺭﺩﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻓﺭﺩﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺯﻭﺠﻴﺔ ﻭ ﻋﺩﺩﻫﺎ :
10 ´ 10 + 10 ´ 10 = 200
200 10
= p2 = ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎل :
380 19
– ﻋﺩﺩ ﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺴﺤﺏ ﻭﺭﻗﺘﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻹﺭﺠﺎﻉ ﻫﻭ : 3
20 ´ 20 = 400
10 ´ 10 + 10 ´ 10 = 200 ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ :
ﻷﻥ ﺇﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻓﺭﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺯﻭﺠﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﺯﻭﺠﻴﺔ
ﻭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﺭﺩﻴﺔ.
200 1
= p3 = ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻫﻭ :
400 2
. ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺭﻴﻥ 6
– ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻫﺫﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻤﻴﺫﻴﻥ : 1
! 35
= C 352
! ( 35 - 2 ) !´ 2
2 !35 ´ 34 ´ 33
= 595 C 35 = = 35 ´ 17
33!´ 2
ﺴﻨﺔ : 34 – ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺘﻠﻤﻴﺫﻴﻥ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺴﻨﻴﻬﻤﺎ 2
C101 ´ C20
1
+ C52 = 210 ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ :
ﺴﻨﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻠﻤﻴﺫﻴﻥ ﻋﻤﺭ ﻜل 18 ﺴﻨﺔ ﻭ ﺁﺨﺭ 16 ) ﺃﻱ ﺘﻠﻤﻴﺫ ﻋﻤﺭﻩ
210 6
= ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻫﻭ :
595 17
– 3ﻗﻴﻡ Xﻫﻲ 36,35,34,33,32 :
C 102
45 9
= ] p [ X = 32 = =
595 595 119
C 1 ´ C 51 50 10
p [ X = 33 ] = 10 = =
595 595 119
C ´ C 20 + C 52 210
1 1
42
p [ X = 34 ] = 10 = =
595 595 119
1 1
C ´ C 20 100 20
p[ X = 35] = 5 = =
595
595 119
C 220
190 38
= ]p [ X = 36 = =
595 595 119
ﻗﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎل :
32 ´ 9 33 ´ 10 34 ´ 42 35 ´ 20 36 ´ 38
=)E (X + + + +
119 119 119 119 119
288 + 330 + 1428 + 700 + 1368 4114
= )E (X =
119 119
. E ( X ) ; 34,57 ﺇﺫﻥ:
-ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ :
=
( n - 1 )! +
( n - 1 )!
( n - p ) !. ( p - 1 ) ! ( n - p ) !. p !
( n - 1 )! ( n - 1)!
= +
( n - p ) . ( n - p - 1 ) !. ( p - 1 ) ( n - p - 1 ) !. p ( p - 1 )
=
( n - 1 )! . p + ( n - 1 )! . ( n - p )
( n - p ) . ( n - p - 1 )! p ( p - 1 )
=
( n - 1 )![ p + n - p ] = n ( n - 1 )! = n!
( n - p )! p ! ( n - p )! p ! ( n - p )! p !
= Cnp
: ﺤل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ
2
(
D = C np--11 - C np- 1 )
: ﻭ ﻤﻨﻪ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺤﻠﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻤﺎﻴﺯﻴﻥ D>0 ﻭ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ
p ( k ) : C k0 + C k1 + ... + C kk = 2 k
p ( k + 1 ) : C k0+ 1 + C k1 + 1 + ... + C kk++11 = 2 k + 1
C k0 + 1 = C k0 : ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ ﻤﻤﺎ ﺴﺒﻕ
C k1 + 1 = C k0 + C k1
C k2 + 1 = C k1 + C k2
M
Ckk+1 = C kk -1 + C kk
Ckk++11 = C kk + Ckk +1
: ﺒﺎﻟﺠﻤﻊ ﻁﺭﻓﺎ ﻟﻁﺭﻑ ﻨﺠﺩ
: a 30 .b 30 ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ
ì100 - p = 70
í : ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ
î p = 30
p = 30 : ﻭ ﻣﻨﻪ
30
C100 : ﺇﺫﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﻫﻭ
ì100 - p = 41
í : ﺇﺫﻥa 41 ´ b59 : ﺭﺘﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩ-
î p = 59
p = 59 : ﺇﺫﻥ
. 10 ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺭﻴﻥ
p= n n- p p= n
n p p
(1 + 1 ) = å C (1 ) n . (1 ) = å C np
p=0 p =0
2 = Cn + C n + ... + Cnn
0 1
p= n
n n n- p p
(1 + 1 ) = éë 1 + ( - 1 ) ùû = å C np ( 1 ) .(- 1 )
p= 0
p=n p
n
= å C np ( - 1 ) = C n0 - C n1 + C n2 - ... + ( - 1 ) C nn
p=0
n
0 = C n0 - C n1 + C n2 - ... + ( - 1 ) C nn
: ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻤﻴﻊ
n
S1 = (1 + 1 ) = 2 n
S 1 = ( C n0 + C n2 + ... ) + ( C n1 + C n3 + ... )
S1 = S 2 + S 3
) 0 = ( C n0 + C n2 + ... ) - ( C n1 + C n3 + ...
0 = S2 - S3
ì S2 + S3 = 2n
í ﺇﺫﻥ :
î S2 - S3 = 0
ﺑﺎﻟﺠﻤﻊ ﻧﺠﺪ 2 S2 = 2n :
n
ﺇﺫﻥ S 2 = 2 :ﻭ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ S 2 = 2 n -1 :ﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ S 3 = 2 n -1 :
2
. ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺭﻴﻥ 11
1 1
p(n ) : £ n -1 ﺍﻟﺒﺭﻫﺎﻥ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺼﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﻴﺔ :
n! 2
1 1
1£1 ﺃﻱ £ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل : n = 1
1! 20
ﻭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻭ ﻤﻨﻪ ) p ( 1ﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ.
1 1
p ( k ) : £ k -1
k! 2
1 1
p ( k + 1) : £ k
( k + 1)! 2
k ³1 ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ :
1 1
( 1) ... £ ﻭ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ : ! ( k + 1) ! ³ 2.k ﻭ ﻤﻨﻪ :
! ( k + 1) ! 2.k
1 1 1 1
£ ﻭ ﻤﻨﻪ : £ k -1 ﻟﻜﻥ :
2k ! 2.2k -1 k! 2
1 1
( 2) ... ﺇﺫﻥ £ k :
2.k ! 2
1 1
£ k ﻣﻦ ) ( 1ﻭ ) : ( 2
( k + 1)! 2
ﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ. )p ( k + 1 ﺇﺫﻥ :
ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﺩﻭﻡ. n ﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﻜل ﻋﺩﺩ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ ) p(n ﻭ ﻤﻨﻪ :
ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺕ 9 ﻓﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎ a ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻜل ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﺎ ﻋﺩﺍ 10 ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ:
9 ´ 109 ﻭ ﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺩﺃ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻫﻭ : a¹0 ﻷﻥ :
ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻤﺘﻤﺎﻴﺯﺓ ﻤﺜﻨﻰ ﻤﺜﻨﻰ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻤﻥ 6 – ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻭﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ 2
a¹0 ﺤﻴﺙ abcdef ﺍﻟﺸﻜل :
ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻴﺴﺎﺭ ﻫﻭ : 0 -ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺒﻤﺎ ﻓﻴﻬﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺸﻤل
!10
10 ´ 9 ´ 8 ´ 7 ´ 6 ´ 5 : ﺃﻱ ﺃﻱ A106
! ) ( 10 - 6
151200 ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻫﻭ :
ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ 5 ﻫﻭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺫﺍﺕ abcdef ﻭﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل
!9
= A95 = 9´ 8´ 7´ 6´ 5 ﺤﻴﺙ : A95 ﻭﻋﺩﺩﻫﺎ
!) (9 - 5
A95 = 15120 ﺃﻱ :
ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻤﺘﻤﺎﻴﺯﺓ ﻤﺜﻨﻰ ﻤﺜﻨﻰ ﻫﻭ: 6 ﻭﻤﻨﻪ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺫﺍﺕ
ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺕ 10 ﻭ a ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ 9 ﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺩﺃ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ ) ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ
( f ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ eﻭ 2 ﻭ d ﻭ C ﻭ b ﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻜل ﻤﻥ
ﻋﻠﻰ 0 -ﻋﺩﺩ ﻜل ﺍﻷﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺒﻤﺎ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺸﻤل
40 ﺃﻱ 8´ 5 ﻫﻭ : abc -ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل :
ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻤﺘﻤﺎﻴﺯﺓ ﻤﺜﻨﻰ ﻤﺜﻨﻰ ﻭ ﻓﺭﺩﻴﺔ 3 ﻭﻤﻨﻪ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻭﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ
p ( A) + p ( B ) = 1 ﻭ ﻣﻨﻪp ( W ) = 1
3 p( B) = 1 : ﻭ ﻤﻨﻪ p ( A) = 2 p ( B ) : ﻟﻜﻥ
2 1
p ( A) = ﻭ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ p(B) = : ﺇﺫﻥ
3 3
2 1
( )
p A = 1 - p(A) = 1 -
3
=
3
: p( AI B) ﺤﺴﺎﺏ
p(A U B )= p ( A) + p (B )- p(A I B )
1 2
p ( A I B ) = 0 ﻭ ﻣﻨﻪ1 = + - p ( A I B )
3 3
-2ﻗﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ : X
s ( X ) ; 70,7 ﻭ ﻤﻨﻪ : s =) (X V (X ) ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ :
pC 1
( F ) = 0, 75 ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻡ ﺍﻷﻭل ﻫﻭ :
pC 2
( F ) = 0, 85 ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻡ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﻫﻭ :
Fﺼﺎﻟﺤﺔ ﻟﻼﺴﺘﻌﻤﺎل ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻨﺘﺠﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺠﺔ
pC ( F ) = 0, 90
3
ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻡ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ ﻫﻭ :
ﺼﺎﻟﺤﺔ ﻟﻼﺴﺘﻌﻤﺎل ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻨﻊ : F ﻭ ﻤﻨﻪ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺜﻼﺠﺔ
) p ( F ) = pC ( F ) ´ p ( C1 ) + pC ( F ) ´ p ( C 2 ) + pC ( F ) ´ p ( C 3
1 2 3
4
R
8
4
N
8
R R
5 5
9 8
6 4
R
10 9
N
3
N
8
4 5
R
10 8
6
R
9
3
N N
8
3 2
N R
9 8
6
N
8
ﻤﺴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻨﺭﻤﺯ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﺭﻤﻭﺯ : 6 ﺘﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻥ A ﻭ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺜﺔ
V J
3 5
J V
8 8
3
J
8
5 3
J
8 8
·
5
J
8
V
3 3
8 8
3
J J
8
5
V
8
5
V
8
ﻭ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ :
5 5 3 5 3 5 5 3 3
´ ´ p ( A) = ´ ´ + ´ ´ +
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
3 3 5 3 5 3 3 5 5
´ ´ + ´ ´ + ´ ´ +
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
3.52 ´ 3 + 3.5.32 360
= )p ( A =
83 512
5 5 5 3 3 3
´ ´ p( B) = ´ ´ + ﻭ ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ :
8 8 8 8 8 8
152
= )p( B ﺇﺫﻥ :
512