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ﺭﺍﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻇﺎﻫﺮ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﻲﺭﺳﺪ ﺷﺎﻫﺪﻱ ﺑﺮ ﮔﺮﻡ ﺷﺪﻥ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﻣﻲﺩﺍﻧﻨﺪ .ﻭ ﭼﻜﻴﺪﻩ
ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﺍﺗﻲ ﻫﻤﭽﻮﻥ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺁﺏ ﺩﺭﻳﺎ ،ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺳﺎﻛﻨﻴﻦ ﺣﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺣﺶ ،ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ CF3SF5ﮔﺎﺯﻱ ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﮔﺮﻡﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﻲ 18000ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺩﻱ ﺍﻛﺴﻴﺪﻛﺮﺑﻦ
ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﻣﺮﺍﺽ ﻭ ...ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻲﺷﻤﺮﻧﺪ. ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ .ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺎﺯ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻮﺭ ﻛﺎﻓﺖ) ،(2ﻭﺍﻛﻨﺶ ﺑﺎ
ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺁﻧﭽﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻗﻄﻌﻲ ﻣﻲﺭﺳﺪ ﻧﻘﺶ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﮔﺎﺯﻫﺎﻱ ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﻳﻮﻥﻫﺎﻱ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻲ ﻭ ﺻﻨﻌﺘﻲ ﺍﺗﻤﺴﻔﺮ ﻣﻘﺎﻭﻡ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻄﻲ ،ﻭﺍﻛﻨﺶ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺎ
ﺩﺭ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﻣﺎﻱ ﻛﺮﻩﻱ ﺯﻣﻴﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ) .ﻫﺮﭼﻨﺪ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﭘﺲ ﺧﻮﺭﺍﻧﺪﻱ ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻳﻮﻥﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﻳﻮﻧﺴﻔﺮ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﻫﺮﺩﻭﻱ ﭘﻴﻮﻧﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻲ ﻭ ﭘﺮﻭﺗﻮﻧﻲ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ.
ﮔﺎﺯﻫﺎ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﻪ ﭘﻴﭽﻴﺪﮔﻲ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺌﻮﺍﻻﺕ ﻓﺮﺍﺭﻭﻱ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﻤﻨﺪﺍﻥ ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺺ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺯﻧﺪﮔﻲ ﺁﻥ ﺑﻴﻦ 800ﺗﺎ 1000ﺳﺎﻝ )ﮔﺎﻫﻲ ﺗﺎ 3200ﺳﺎﻝ( ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ ﺯﺩﻩ
ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺍﺳﺖ (.ﮔﺎﺯﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﺩﻣﺎﻱ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺯﻣﻴﻦ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺪ 15ْ cﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ .ﺳﻄﺢ ﺻﻔﺮ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻫﻪ 1960ﻭ ﻏﻠﻈﺖ 0/12ﺗﺎ 0/16ﻗﺴﻤﺖ
ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺎﺯﻫﺎ ﺩﻣﺎ ﺗﺎ ﺣﺪ -18ْ cﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﻓﺖ).ﻋﻠﻴﺰﺍﺩﻩ (1381 ،ﺩﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺮﻳﻠﻴﻮﻥ ) (PPTﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ،ﺷﺎﻫﺪﻱ ﻣﺤﻜﻢ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻨﺸﺎء ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻧﻲ
ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﺗﻤﺮﻛﺰ ﺭﻭﻱ ﭼﻨﺪﮔﺎﺯ CO2ﻭ CH4ﻭ NO2ﻭ ...ﺑﻮﺩ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﺧﻴﺮﺍ ً ﺩﺭ ﺟﻮ ﻼ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻮﺟﻪﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺎﺯ ﺍﺳﺖ .ﺍﮔﺮ ﭼﻪ ﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺎﺯ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻭﺍﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﺗﺎﺑﺸﻲ ﻓﻌ ً
ﮔﺎﺯﻫﺎﻱ ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﻳﻲ ﺷﺪﻩﺍﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻫﺰﺍﺭ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ)ﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺎﺯ ﺩﺭ ﮔﺮﻡ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪﺍﻱ 0/003ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ( .ﺍﻣﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺧﺎﻃﺮ
ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﺍﺕ CO2ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺍﺷﻌﻪ ﺗﺎﺑﺶ ﻣﺎﺩﻭﻥ ﻗﺮﻣﺰ ﺭﺍ ﻛﻪ ﮔﺎﺯﻫﺎﻱ ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﭘﺎﻳﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﻭ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺯﻧﺪﮔﻲ ﻃﻮﻻﻧﻲ ﺑﺎﻳﺴﺘﻲ ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪﺍﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻲ
ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻟﻲ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺟﺬﺑﺶ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﻗﻮﻳﺎً ﺟﺬﺏ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ CF3SF5 .ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺯﻣﻴﻦ ﺩﺍﺩ.
ﭼﻨﺪﻳﻦ ﺍﺑﺮ ﮔﺎﺯ ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺟﻬﺖ ﻋﻤﺮ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪﻧﺶ ﺍﺩﺑﻴﺎﺕ ﻛﺸﻒ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺎﺯ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺎ ﺑﺎﻳﺴﺘﻲ ﻣﺮﺍﻗﺐ ﺍﺗﻤﺴﻔﺮ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺑﺪﺍﻧﻴﻢ ﻛﻪ
ﺩﺭ ﺩﺳﺘﺮﺱ ﺁﻥ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ .ﺩﺭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺑﺮﺁﻥ ﻫﺴﺘﻴﻢ ﺗﺎ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻫﻨﻮﺯ ﺣﻘﺎﻳﻖ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﻱ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ .ﻣﺎ ﺣﺘﻲ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺑﺪﺍﻧﻴﻢ 50ﺳﺎﻝ
ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﮕﻲ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﻳﻲ ﻭ ﻛﺸﻒ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺎﺯ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺗﻤﺴﻔﺮ ،ﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺴﻢ ﻭﺍﻛﻨﺶ ﺁﻥ، ﺍﺳﺖ ﮔﺎﺯ ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﻤﻨﺪﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻴﻢ .ﭘﺲ ﺑﺎﻳﺴﺘﻲ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺎﺯ ﺭﺍ ﭘﻴﺪﺍ
ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺯﻧﺪﮔﻲ ﻭ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺎﺯ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﻫﻴﻢ. ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻭ ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻛﻨﻴﻢ.
).(3
ﻭﺍژﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﻛﻠﻴﺪﻱ CF3SF5 :ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ،ﺍﺑﺮﮔﺎﺯ ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪﺍﻱ ،ﻭﺍ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﺗﺎﺑﺸﻲ
ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ
ﺍﮔﺮﭼﻪ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻋﻲ ﺗﺎﺯﻩ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ ﻭ ﺍﺯ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ
ﺟﺰﺋﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻓﺘﺎﺭ ﺫﺍﺗﻲ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻨﺒﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻋﻠﻤﻲ ،ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ
ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ .ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﻱ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻧﻲ
ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﮔﺬﺍﺷﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺪﺕ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺩﻳﺪﮔﺎﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺘﻤﺪﺍﺭﺍﻥ
ﻧﮕﺎﺭﻩ :1ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﻣﻮﻟﻜﻮﻟﻲ CF3SF5 ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﻋﻠﻤﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺮﺑﻪﺍﻱ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻧﻈﺮ
ﻭ ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻦ ﺧﻮﺍﺳﺘﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻗﻮﻱ ﺗﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ).ﺧﻮﺷﺤﺎﻝ (1388،ﺑﻪ
ﺍَﺑَﺮﮔﺎﺯﻫﺎﻱ ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺟﻬﺖ ﻋﺪﻩﺍﻱ ﺑﺎ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺳﺌﻮﺍﻻﺗﻲ ﮔﺮﻡ ﺷﺪﻥ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﻭ ﻃﺮﻓﺪﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ
ﻫﺮ ﻣﻮﻟﻜﻮﻝ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺎﺯﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﺳﺎﺯ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻏﻠﺐ ﮔﺎﺯﻫﺎﻱ Fﻧﺎﻣﻴﺪﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ، ﺑﺎ ﭼﺎﻟﺶ ﺟﺪّﻱ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﻛﺮﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ .ﺳﺆﺍﻻﺗﻲ ﻫﻤﭽﻮﻥ ﺁﻳﺎ ﺩﻗﺖ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﻭ
ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﮔﺮﻡ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﻲ ﭼﻨﺪﻳﻦ ﻫﺰﺍﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ CO۲ﺩﺍﺭﺩ .ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﺎﻡ ﺍﺑﺮ ﮔﺎﺯ ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﻧﺎﻣﻲ ﻣﻮﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﺍﺑﺰﺍﺭ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺎﺩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ
ﺑﺮﺍﺯﻧﺪﻩ ﺁﻧﻬﺎﺳﺖ) (www.Rsc.orgﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺖ ﮔﺎﺯﻫﺎﻱ ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﮔﺮﻡ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻳﻜﺴﺎﻥ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ؟! ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺍﺛﺮ ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺗﺎﺑﺶ ﻣﻮﺝ
ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ .ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺬﺏ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﺗﺎﺑﺶ ﻳﻚ ﻃﻮﻝ ﻣﻮﺝ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻭﺍﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﺎً ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺎﺑﺶ ﻭﺭﻭﺩﻱ ﺧﻮﺭﺷﻴﺪﻱ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ ،ﭼﺮﺍ
ﺧﺎﺹ ﻃﻴﻒ ﻣﺎﺩﻭﻥ ﻗﺮﻣﺰ ﻭ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺑﻘﺎﻱ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺗﻤﺴﻔﺮ ﻧﺸﺄﺕ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ .ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺳﺮﻳﻌﺘﺮﻱ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻣﺎﻱ ﺷﺒﺎﻧﻪ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻣﺎﻱ ﺭﻭﺯﺍﻧﻪ ﺛﺒﺖ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ
ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﮔﺮﻣﺎﻳﻲ )ﮔﺮﻡ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﻲ( ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻲ ) (4)(GWPﺑﻮﺳﻴﻠﻪ ﻫﻴﺄﺕ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ؟! )ﻋﺰﻳﺰﻱ(1383،
ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ) (IPCC,1995ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺑﻴﺎﻥ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻧﺴﺒﻲ ﻳﻚ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﮔﺎﺯ ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪﺍﻱ c
ﺩﺭ ﻛﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻳﺪﮔﺎﻩ ﻋﺪﻩﺍﻱ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ 0/ْ5ﺩﻣﺎﻱ ﺳﻄﺤﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻗﺮﻥ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ
ﻣﺄﺧﺬSuen ،2008:
A A
* ﺗﺠﺰﻳﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻭﺍﻛﻨﺶ ﻳﻚ ﻣﺎﺩﻩ ﻳﺎ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻣﺎﺩﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺗﺎﺑﺶ ﻧﻮﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ .ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ ﻃﻮﻝ ﻣﻮﺝﻫﺎﻱ ﺑﻴﻦ ْ 2000ﺗﺎ ْ 8000ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻧﻮﺭ ﻛﺎﻓﺖ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ.
** ﺍﺗﻤﻲ ﻛﻪ ﻳﻚ ﻳﺎ ﭼﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻥ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻳﺎ ﮔﺮﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺗﻢﻫﺎ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻱ ﺑﺎﺭ ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ.
*** ﺍﺗﻤﻲ ﻛﻪ ﻳﻚ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻥ ﻳﺎ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ .ﻳﺎ ﮔﺮﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺗﻢﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺑﺎﺭ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﻧﻈﻴﺮ [NH4]+ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﮔﻮﻳﻨﺪ.
**** ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﻚ ﭘﺮﻭﺗﻮﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚ ﻣﻮﻟﻜﻮﻝ ﺑﺎ ﻳﻮﻥ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﮔﻮﻳﻨﺪ .ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ H2Oﺑﻪ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﻪ ﭘﺮﺗﻮﻥﺩﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ [H2O]+CI-ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ) .ﻳﺎﻭﺭﻱ(1381،
)(RSC,2008 ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺎﺯ 2537ﺍﺳﺖ.
ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺟﺲ ﻭ ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ 2000ﺑﻴﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ ،ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻝ
ﺁﻧﺎﻟﻴﺰ ﮔﺎﺯ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻮﺳﻔﺮ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ SF6ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ ﻣﺘﻮﺟﻪ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻳﻚ ﭘﻴﻚ ﻧﺎﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ
ﻧﺰﺩﻳﻚ ﺑﻪ SF6ﺷﺪﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺸﺨﻴﺺ ﺗﻼﺵ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ
ﻏﻠﻀﺖ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺎﺯ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺗﻤﺴﻔﺮ ﺷﺮﻭﻉ ﺷﺪ .ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﻫﻮﺍﻫﺎﻱ
ﺑﺮﻑﻫﺎﻱ ﻓﺸﺮﺩﻩ Dome concorordiaﺩﺭ ﻗﻄﺐ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺷﺮﻗﻲ ﻏﻠﻈﺖ
ﺍﺗﻤﺴﻔﺮﻱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺎﺯ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻭﺍﻳﻞ ﺩﻫﻪ 1960ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒ ًﺎ ﺻﻔﺮ ﺑﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ.
ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺟﺲ ﻭ ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﺍﻥ ﺷﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺎﺯ ﺭﺍ ﺍﻭﺍﺧﺮ ﺩﻫﻪ 1950ﻣﻲﺩﺍﻧﻨﺪ ،ﻛﻪ
ﺑﺎ ﻳﻚ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺗﺎ ﺩﻫﻪ 1990ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ .ﺳﻄﺢ ﻓﻌﻠﻲ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺎﺯ ﺑﻴﻦ
0/18ﺗﺎ 0/12ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺮﻳﻠﻴﻮﻥ ) (PPTﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ 6ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺑﺎ
ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺎﺯ ﻭ ﮔﺎﺯﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺸﺎﺑﻪ ﺁﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺗﻤﺴﻔﺮ ﺩﺍﻧﺴﺖ. ﺧﻄﺎﻱ ±10ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ) .ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ(2
ﻣﺆﺳﺴﻪ ﻣﺎﻛﺲ ﭘﻼﻧﻚ ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ ﺩﺭ ﻻﻳﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺑﺮﻑﻫﺎﻱ ﻓﺸﺮﺩﻩ
ﻣﺄﺧﺬ :ﺍﻧﺴﺘﻴﺘﻮﻱ ﻣﺎﻛﺲ ﭘﻼﻧﻚ
ﻗﻄﺐ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺑﺎ ﺿﺨﺎﻣﺖ 100ﻣﺘﺮ ﺑﺎ ﻫﻮﺍﻱ ﻗﺪﻳﻤﻲ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﻭﻉ ﻗﺮﻥ
ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ :2ﺩﺍﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﻏﻠﻈﺖ ﺩﻭ ﮔﺎﺯ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﻳﺦ ﻗﻄﺐ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ 1aﺩﺭ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﻏﻠﻈﺖ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺎﺯ ) 0/01 (PPTﺑﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩﻩ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻟﻲ ﻛﻪ ﻏﻠﻈﺖ ﺍﻳﻦ
ﺍﺗﻤﺴﻔﺮ 1bﺩﺭ ﻋﻤﻖ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺯﻣﻴﻦ ﮔﺎﺯ ﺩﺭ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻗﺮﻥ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ) 0/1 (PPTﺭﺳﻴﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ.
ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﻏﻠﻈﺖ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺎﺯ ﺑﺎ ﻏﻠﻈﺖ ﻣﺘﺎﻥ 1800ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﺑﺮﺑﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ) (PPbﻭ
ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﻛﺴﻴﺪ ﻧﻴﺘﺮﻭژﻥ 318ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﺑﺮ ﺑﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ )) (PPbﻋﺰﻳﺰﻱ (1383 ،ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ
ﺩﻻﻳﻠﻲ ﭼﻨﺪ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻛﺖ ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺑﺮﮔﺎﺯ ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﺩﺭ ﻛﻪ ﻏﻠﻈﺖ ﮔﺎﺯ ﺗﺎﺯﻩ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺪﻱ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻮﺟﻬﻲ ﺑﺮ
ﺍﺗﻤﺴﻔﺮ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ .ﻏﻠﻈﺖ ﺻﻔﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺎﺯ ﺩﺭ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻫﻪ 1960ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﻭﺍﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﺗﺎﺑﺸﻲ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ .ﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺎﺯ ﺩﺭ ﮔﺮﻡﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﻲ ﺍﺗﻤﺴﻔﺮ 0/003
ﻛﻪ ﻣﻨﺒﻊ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻮﻟﻜﻮﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﺼﺮﺍ ً ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ .ﺳﺎﺗﻮﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ 2000ﻳﻜﻲ ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﮔﺮﻡ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﻲ ﮔﺎﺯﻫﺎﻱ ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﺍﺗﻤﺴﻔﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ .ﺍﻣﺎ ﺑﺎﻳﺴﺘﻲ ﺍﻳﻦ
ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺎﺯ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺎﺭﺧﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﻓﻠﻮﺋﻮﺭ ﻭ ﺷﻴﻤﻴﺎﻳﻲ ﻣﻲﺩﺍﻧﺪ .ﻋﺪﻩﺍﻱ ﺭﺍ ﻳﻚ ﻓﺮﺻﺖ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﻳﻲ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﻭ ﻧﻪ ﺑﻬﺎﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻓﺮﺍﻣﻮﺵ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ
ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻭ ﻣﺂﺧﺬ
-1ﺧﻮﺷﺤﺎﻝ ﺩﺳﺘﺠﺮﺩﻱ ،ﺟﻮﺍﺩ ،ﺟﺰﻭﻩ ،ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ،ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺩﻛﺘﺮﻱ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﻲ،
ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺍﺻﻔﻬﺎﻥ ،ﺳﺎﻝ .1388
-2ﻋﺰﻳﺰﻱ ،ﻗﺎﺳﻢ ،ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ،ﭼﺎپ ﺍﻭﻝ ،ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻗﻮﻣﺲ ،ﺳﺎﻝ .1383
-3ﻋﻠﻴﺰﺍﺩﻩ ﺍﻣﻴﻦ؛ ﻛﻤﺎﻟﻲ ،ﻏﻼﻣﻌﻠﻲ ،ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺁﺏ ﺩﺭ
ﻛﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﻱ ،ﻓﺼﻠﻨﺎﻣﻪ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﻳﻲ ،ﺷﻤﺎﺭﻩ ،65-66ﺳﺎﻝ .81
-4ﻛﺎﻭﻳﺎﻧﻲ ،ﻣﺤﻤﺪﺭﺿﺎ؛ ﻋﻠﻴﺠﺎﻧﻲ ،ﺑﻬﻠﻮﻝ ،ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢﺷﻨﺎﺳﻲ ،ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺳﻤﺖ،
ﺳﺎﻝ.1373