Behavioral Operational Research:

Theory, Methodology and Practice 1st

Edition Martin Kunc
Visit to download the full and correct content document:
https://textbookfull.com/product/behavioral-operational-research-theory-methodology-
and-practice-1st-edition-martin-kunc/
More products digital (pdf, epub, mobi) instant
download maybe you interests ...

Ethics and Visual Research Methods: Theory,

Methodology, and Practice 1st Edition Deborah Warr

https://textbookfull.com/product/ethics-and-visual-research-
methods-theory-methodology-and-practice-1st-edition-deborah-warr/

Strategic Analytics Integrating Management Science and

Strategy Martin Kunc

https://textbookfull.com/product/strategic-analytics-integrating-
management-science-and-strategy-martin-kunc/

Single Case Research Methodology Applications in

Special Education and Behavioral Sciences Jennifer R
Ledford

https://textbookfull.com/product/single-case-research-
methodology-applications-in-special-education-and-behavioral-
sciences-jennifer-r-ledford/

Biota Grow 2C gather 2C cook Loucas

https://textbookfull.com/product/biota-grow-2c-gather-2c-cook-
loucas/
Single Case Research Methodology Applications in
Special Education and Behavioral Sciences 3rd Edition
Jennifer R. Ledford

https://textbookfull.com/product/single-case-research-
methodology-applications-in-special-education-and-behavioral-
sciences-3rd-edition-jennifer-r-ledford/

Strategies and tactics of behavioral research and

practice Fourth Edition Gina Green

https://textbookfull.com/product/strategies-and-tactics-of-
behavioral-research-and-practice-fourth-edition-gina-green/

Subjectivity within Cultural Historical Approach Theory

Methodology and Research Fernando González Rey

https://textbookfull.com/product/subjectivity-within-cultural-
historical-approach-theory-methodology-and-research-fernando-
gonzalez-rey/

Operations Research-Operations Research: Theory and

Practice 1st Edition N.V.S Raju (Author)

https://textbookfull.com/product/operations-research-operations-
research-theory-and-practice-1st-edition-n-v-s-raju-author/

Advances in Operational Research in the Balkans: XIII

Balkan Conference on Operational Research Nenad
Mladenovi■

https://textbookfull.com/product/advances-in-operational-
research-in-the-balkans-xiii-balkan-conference-on-operational-
research-nenad-mladenovic/
EDITED BY MARTIN KUNC,
JONATHAN MALPASS
AND LEROY WHITE

BEHAVIORAL
OPERATIONAL
RESEARCH
Theory, Methodology
and Practice
Behavioral Operational Research
 Martin Kunc • Jonathan Malpass • Leroy White
Editors

Behavioral
Operational Research
Theory, Methodology and Practice
Editors
Martin Kunc Leroy White
Warwick Business School Warwick Business School
University of Warwick University of Warwick
Coventry, United Kingdom Coventry, United Kingdom

Jonathan Malpass
BT Technology, Service & Operations
Martlesham Heath, United Kingdom

ISBN 978-1-137-53549-8 ISBN 978-1-137-53551-1 (eBook)

DOI 10.1057/978-1-137-53551-1

Library of Congress Control Number: 2016936719

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2016

The author(s) has/have asserted their right(s) to be identified as the author(s) of this work in accordance
with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether
the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of
illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and trans-
mission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or
dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication
does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant
protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book
are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or
the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any
errors or omissions that may have been made.

Printed on acid-free paper

This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature

The registered company is Macmillan Publishers Ltd. London
 Introduction to the Book

Students in university courses on management often find disciplinary

silos as tall and impregnable as the silos in many corporations. Most
operational research and management science (OR/MS) courses focus
on the ‘physics’ of factories and other systems and teach how to find
optimal policies; people play little role in these models, and where
they appear they are usually assumed to be the perfectly rational, self-
interested maximizers central to economics. At the same time, courses
in organizational behavior, human resources, and leadership focus on
the foibles and failings of humans in social settings, where decisions
are imperfect and biased; learning is slow or absent; people are swayed
by social pressures; and values, norms and emotions play a central role.
In these courses, however, there is little role for the physics of complex
operations. The result is contradiction, confusion, and a self-reinforcing
pathology: How often have you been told, ‘That’s a marketing problem,’
‘That’s an operations problem,’ ‘That’s a human resources problem,’ and
‘Whatever you do, don’t bring your personal problems to work’? But we
don’t have marketing problems, operations problems, financial problems
and people problems; we don’t have workplace issues, personal problems
and family problems. We just have problems. We create these boundaries
and impose these categories on the world to simplify its overwhelming

v
vi Introduction to the Book

complexity. Some boundaries are necessary and inevitable. But all too
often, the invisible boundaries in our minds cut off critical feedbacks,
deny us the insights of people with different experience and perspec-
tives, and breed arrogance about our ability to control nature and other
people—and then our problems grow worse.
Fortunately, over the past few decades, scholars in fields including
operations management, economics, organizations psychology and oth-
ers have engaged in fruitful and often intense debate over core assump-
tions “such as rationality” and have begun to collaborate fruitfully. New
fields integrating these disciplines, such as behavioral economics, behav-
ioral finance and behavioral operations, have emerged, and their insights
are being applied by firms and governments at the highest levels. Interest
in understanding both human behavior in practice and how to capture it
in models and analysis is growing. Experiments and theory increasingly
recognize aspects of individual behavior such as decision-making heuris-
tics and biases, bounded rationality and misperceptions of feedback, as
well as the ways in which these attributes of human behavior both shape
and are shaped by the physical and institutional systems in which we are
embedded.
Behavioral issues in operations management and OR are especially rel-
evant today. The global economic crisis that began in 2007–8 revealed
important interactions among organizational failure, weak policy and
strategy, and our lack of understanding of the ways our organizational
processes and operational systems, from financial markets to global sup-
ply chains, actually operate. Behaviorally realistic models have never been
more important.
Students and practitioners of OR need to understand the implications
of behavioral OR. How can organizations incorporate behavioral factors
to model the impact of an intervention? What are the implications for
models and management if the all-too-human people in organizations
use decision-making shortcuts and heuristics and suffer from biases?
What are the implications of behavioral issues for the OR toolkit and
training?
This book, Behavioral Operational Research, is a timely look at behav-
ioral matters in organizational life. The book does not promote behav-
 Introduction to the Book vii

ioral OR as a magic potion for today’s organizational ills. Instead,

the book surveys critical current issues that researchers, students and
practitioners are tackling as they break down the silos across disciplines
and integrate models of processes and systems with realistic assumptions
about the behavior of the people who work in, manage and design those
systems.

John Sterman
Jay W. Forrester Professor of Management,
MIT Sloan School of Management,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Cambridge, MA, USA
 Preface

This book is a collection of articles on Behavioral Operational Research.

It arose from a number of events and conferences highlighting a resur-
gence of interest in Operational Research (OR) and the behavioral sci-
ences. It was clear from these events that behavior, its representation in
models and its effects on how users respond to models, is attracting the
attention of OR researchers and practitioners. This current growth in
interest, in our view, also stems from the long observed gap in behavioral
issues in a wide sense, coupled with the emergence of a set of methods
that promise the potential of being able to address behavioral concerns.
While the field of OR has been aware of the relevance of behavioral issues
for a long time now, it might be said to have danced around them. So,
the interest in behavior is not new, nor does the resurgence of interest
represent a “revolution”. What may be novel is the emergence of a set of
ideas and methods from other areas, such as economics and psychology,
that may allow a more rigorous approach to addressing behavioral issues
within the OR field, perhaps with more focus on the use of laboratory
and field experiments of individual and team decision-making. In par-
ticular, based on related concerns in economics and psychology, we are
witnessing developments in the field as being shaped through the integra-
tion of insights from psychological research into OR theory and meth-
ods, especially concerning human judgment and decision-making under
uncertainty and establishing more experimental approaches as a tool in
ix
x Preface

empirical OR analysis, especially in the study of group behavior. Equally,

we think that advances in computing as applied to the social sciences,
particularly the increasing ability to model assemblies of interacting intel-
ligent agents is opening up new avenues for research that Behavioral OR
can exploit.
Our aim for the book is to bring coherence to the range of existing
activities in this important area and help to identify and encourage fur-
ther research projects and endeavours. The book is designed to make
access to the latest research on behavioral OR reachable to a wide range
of interested readers. In so doing, we have attempted to organize the
materials in such a way as to appeal to both researchers and practitioners.
Thus, the book is organized to cover broadly “Theory”, “Methods” and
“Practice” perspectives. Within each of these sections the articles pre-
sented aim to cover themes relating to a simple logic: “behavior with
models”, “behavior in models” and “behavior beyond models”. These refer
to models of human activity systems that incorporate behavioral factors,
models of human decision-making, cognitive factors, and accounts of
organizational and social norms and control, with an orientation around
the effects of behavioral and cognitive factors on the activity of analy-
sis and modeling itself and on the communication of results that affect
its impact. The means by which the book is organized should therefore
make it possible for the reader to establish an informed view of the cur-
rent state of the art in this important area. It is worth pointing out that
the choice of material is not meant to be comprehensive and exhaustive.
There are many theories and methods that are not covered by the materi-
als presented. However, one of the great advantages of the book, from
our point of view, is that readers will be drawn to some of the ideas and
concepts presented and will be able to pursue lines of reasoning from the
extensive list of readings that each of the contributors have drawn on. We
also feel that readers may be able to establish an informed view of what
each of the ideas and methods claim or do. It will not convert the reader
into a skilled expert in a particular idea or method. But, it should enable
her or him to follow up on their interest through appropriate means or
otherwise.
The book is organized in four parts. Part I: Theory begins with Engaging
with Behavioral OR: On Methods, Actors and Praxis, which provides
 Preface xi

an introduction to Behavioral OR. The next three chapters, Behavior

with Models: The Role of Psychological Heuristics in OR, Behavior in
Models: A Framework for Representing Human Behavior and Behavior
Beyond the Model are mostly theoretical and intend to provide frame-
works to embed behavior with, in and beyond models.
Part II: Methods aims to show some of the diverse methods used to
address behavioral issues in OR. The six chapters are organized from
“hard”, mathematical and experimental, approaches depicting behavior
to more “soft” approaches. The section begins with a study of queuing and
cellular automata in Simulation and Laboratory Experiments: Exploring
Self-Organizing Behavior in a Collective Choice Model. Chapter 6,
Misperception of Behavioral Operations and Bodies of Knowledge
looks at System Dynamics presents a study on supply chain dynamics
using System Dynamics and experimentation and Chap. 7 introduces
agent-based models—Agent-based Models and Behavioral OR. The next
chapter in the section, Modeling Behavioral Decision Making: Creation
and Representation of Judgment, continues to move along the hard-
soft spectrum and Chap. 9, Big Data and Behavior in OR: Towards a
“Smart OR”, examines how analytical techniques can be used to extract
behavioral insight from Big Data. The final two chapters in this section
introduce two “soft OR” techniques; in Chap. 10, the role of facilitation
on reducing biases in scenarios is discussed in Behavioral Issues in the
Practical Application of Scenario Thinking: Cognitive Biases, Effective
Group Facilitation and Overcoming Business-as-Usual Thinking, and
group model building is the subject of Chap. 12, Group Model Building
and Behavior: Case Study.
Part III: Practice offers five relevant examples from OR practice in
which behavior has a key role in the performance of the models and the
future use of the insights from the models. The first chapter in this sec-
tion, Overview: Behavioral Operational Research in Practice, provides a
brief literature review of the subject and highlights the breadth of studies
that have been undertaken. The next chapters describe examples drawn
from a wide variety of industries and organizations and discuss many dif-
ferent methods. Chapter 13, Healthcare: Human Behavior in Simulation
Models, demonstrates how simulation methods can be used in practice.
A framework for carrying out behavioral studies is described in Chap. 14,
xii Preface

Service Operations: Behavioral Operational Research in BT, and Chap.

15 provides an example of Big Data analytics, Smart Cities: Big Data
and Behavioral OR. The last two examples of behavioral OR in practice
cover two soft OR approaches. Chapter 16, Mergers and Acquisitions:
Modeling Decision Making in Integration Projects, discusses how to
model behavior and how models behave dealing with strategic issues
and Chap. 17, Supporting Strategy: Behavioral Influences on Resource
Conceptualization Processes, examines the impact of behavioral factors in
the development of strategies.
The final chapter of the book, The Past, Present and Futures of
Behavioral Operational Research, offers a review of behavioral OR and
presents a view of the future, arguing that incorporating behavior into
OR projects is the most important aspect of the development of the
subject.
We have endeavoured to ensure that the book appeals to both academ-
ics and practitioners. We are aware it could also appeal to a number of
other audiences, in that it could be a resource for those already immersed
in the discipline, and it could also be an invaluable source to those who
don’t yet know much about the subject. As such, there is no requirement
for any particular level of mathematical preparation, but there are some
mathematical treatments of some of the material.

Leroy White
Jonathan Malpass
Martin Kunc
 Acknowledgements

First, we want to thank all of the contributors to this book, which would
not have been possible without the support and encouragement of all the
authors. Through this joint effort, our enormous admiration for them
and their work has grown even greater, and it has been a tremendous
pleasure to work with them.
Second, we are indebted to several institutions for their support as
this book grew from an idea into a reality. In particular, we thank the
Operational Research Society, UK, for their continuing support and their
wide set of actions aimed at raising the profile of behavioral sciences in
OR in recent years. We are also grateful for the support from our own
institutions, which were flexible in allowing us to pursue this project.
Last, but certainly not least, we are indebted to Palgrave, and in par-
ticular to Josephine Taylor for her patience in dealing with our many
inquiries, as well as their anonymous expert reviewers for their encour-
agement, insights and feedback in refining this book. Finally, any errors
are, of course, our own.

xiii
 Contents

Part I Theory 1

1 Engaging with Behavioral Operational Research:

On Methods, Actors and Praxis 3
L. Alberto Franco and Raimo P. Hämäläinen

2 Behavior with Models: The Role of Psychological

Heuristics in Operational Research 27
Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos

3 Behavior in Models: A Framework for Representing

Human Behavior 47
Andrew Greasley and Chris Owen

4 Behavior Beyond the Model 65

Leroy White

xv
xvi Contents

Part II Methodology 85

5 Simulation and Laboratory Experiments: Exploring

Self-Organizing Behavior in a Collective Choice Model 87
Santiago Arango-Aramburo, Ann van Ackere and Erik R. Larsen

6 Misperception of Behavioral Operations and

Bodies of Knowledge 105
Paulo Gonçalves and Sebastian Villa

7 Agent-Based Models and Behavioral Operational

Research 137
Duncan A. Robertson

8 Modeling Behavioral Decision Making: Creation

and Representation of Judgment 161
Martin Kunc

9 Big Data and Behavior in Operational Research:

Towards a “SMART OR” 177
Leroy White, Katharina Burger and Mike Yearworth

10 Behavioral Issues in the Practical Application

of Scenario Thinking: Cognitive Biases, Effective
Group Facilitation and Overcoming Business-as-Usual
Thinking 195
Stephanie Bryson, Megan Grime, Adarsh Murthy
and George Wright

11 The Impact of Group Model Building on Behavior 213

Etiënne A. J. A. Rouwette
 Contents xvii

Part III Practice 243

12 Overview: Behavioral Operational Research in Practice 245

Katharina Burger and Jonathan Malpass

13 Healthcare: Human Behavior in Simulation Models 263

Sally C. Brailsford

14 Service Operations: Behavioral Operational Research

in British Telecommunications 281
Jonathan Malpass

15 SMART Cities: Big Data and Behavioral Operational

Research 303
Leroy White, Katharina Burger and Mike Yearworth

16 Mergers and Acquisitions: Modeling Decision Making

in Integration Projects 319
Shanie Atkinson and Michael Shayne Gary

17 Supporting Strategy: Behavioral Influences on

Resource Conceptualization Processes 337
Kenneth Kyunghyun Huh and Martin Kunc

Part IV Future Directions 357

18 The Past, Present and Futures of Behavioral

Operational Research 359
Geoff Royston

Index 383
 About the Editors

Martin Kunc is Associate Professor of Management Science at Warwick

Business School, University of Warwick. He has a PhD in Decision
Science from the University of London. His research interests are in the
area of strategic planning, systems modeling and managerial decision-
making, having published articles in diverse journals such as Journal of the
Operational Research Society, Strategic Management Journal, Management
Decision, and Systemic Practice and Action Research. He was previously a
consultant at Arthur Andersen and an independent consultant with proj-
ects in the media, pharmaceuticals, financial services, consumer goods,
and the cement and wine industries. He is a member of the Operational
Research Society, Strategic Management Society, System Dynamics
Society, and Arthur Andersen Alumni. He is a System Dynamics expert
modeller, a member of the board and co-organiser of conferences for
the Operational Research Society (UK), and a co-organiser of streams at
conferences such as EURAM, IFORS, OR, ISDC.
Jonathan Malpass is a Principal Researcher at British Telecommunications.
He has a PhD in Multivariate Statistics from the University of Portsmouth.
His primary research area is Business Transformation and he has extensive
experience in understanding employee behavior, how employees inter-
act with systems, incentivisation, Lean and Six Sigma philosophies, and
employee engagement and morale, working primarily with field-based

xix
xx About the Editors

engineering teams. He has supervised Operational Research students for

both PhD and Masters degrees and has published his work in several
edited books. He is a member of the Operational Research Society (UK).
Leroy White is Professor of Operational Research and Management
Science at Warwick Business School, University of Warwick. His main
research interests are management science/operational research, problem
structuring methods, social network analysis, strategic partnerships, large
group decision-making. He has worked with a range of clients includ-
ing the Department of Health, local health authorities, health trusts,
the BBC and the voluntary sector in both the UK and abroad. He has
published over 100 papers in journals such as The Leadership Quarterly,
Organization Studies, and the European Journal of OR, on the process
of operational research, statistical social networks, systems thinking, and
large group processes. He has also had a book published jointly with
Ann Taket called Partnerships and Participation: Decision-making in the
Multiagency setting. His current funded research work includes ESRC
KTP with Barclays Bank, a British Academy award for a field experiment
with the BBC, and ESRC Capacity Building Cluster work on the impact
of the third sector.
 Notes on Contributors

Ann van Ackere is Professor of Decision Sciences at HEC, University

of Lausanne, where she has been academic director of the PhD, MBA
and EMBA programmes. Her research focuses on quantitative modeling,
with a special interest in queueing, energy policy and healthcare. She
has published in Management Science, Operational Research, Health Care
Management Science, Energy Policy and Interfaces.
Santiago Arango-Aramburo is Full Professor and Director of the Decision
Science group at the Universidad Nacional de Colombia. His research
focuses on energy markets and dynamic complex systems through simu-
lation and experimental economics. His papers have appeared in Energy
Economics, Energy Policy, Utilities Policy, the Journal of Economic Behavior
& Or ganization, and Socio-Economic Planning, among others.
Shanie Atkinson is a PhD candidate at UNSW Australia Business School
where her research focuses on mergers and acquisitions integration. She
also has considerable M&A industry experience from roles in investment
banking, private equity and strategy consulting. Shanie has a Bachelor of
Commerce, MBA, and a Masters of Philosophy.
Sally C. Brailsford is Professor of Management Science at the University
of Southampton with over 25 years’ experience of Health OR. She is
chair of the EURO Working Group on OR Applied to Health Services,

xxi
xxii Notes on Contributors

co-chair of the OR Society’s Special Interest Group on Behavioral OR,

and an Editor-in-Chief of the OR Society’s new journal Health Systems.
Stephanie Bryson is an independent management consultant operating
in Financial Services and the Public Sector. Her background includes
roles in strategy and project management. Stephanie is currently under-
taking a DBA, specializing in scenario planning.
Katharina Burger is Lecturer in Project Management at Portsmouth
Business School, which she joined after completing her PhD at the
University of Bristol. Her research interests lie in the area of behavioral
and soft operational research, especially in understanding problem struc-
turing methods interventions.
L. Alberto Franco is Professor of Management Sciences at Loughborough
University. His research focuses on the use of facilitated modeling to
support group decision-making. Together with Raimo Hämäläinen, he
has been at the forefront of the behavioral OR movement in Europe;
they recently co-edited a special issue of European Journal of Operational
Research in this area.
Michael Shayne Gary is associate professor at UNSW Australia Business
School where he teaches Strategic Management across MBA and Executive
Programs. His research in behavioral strategy focuses on the dynamics
of firm growth and includes corporate diversification and mergers and
acquisitions. Shayne received his PhD at London Business School.
Paulo Gonçalves is Associate Professor of Management and Director of
the Master in Humanitarian Logistics and Management (MASHLM) at
the University of Lugano, Switzerland; and Research Affiliate at the MIT
Sloan School of Management. He obtained his PhD in System Dynamics
from MIT Sloan and his MSc in Technology and Policy from MIT.
Andrew Greasley lectures in Operations Management and Simulation
Modeling at Aston University. His research area is simulation model-
ing. He has over 15 years’ experience of building simulation models for
industrial clients in the private and public sectors, and he is the author
of the books Building a Simulation Capability in the Organisation and
Simulation Modeling for Business.
 Notes on Contributors xxiii

Megan Grime is a PhD student in the Strategy and Organisation

Department of the Strathclyde Business School. She holds an MSc in
Behavioral and Economic Sciences as well as a BA in both Psychology
and Philosophy. Her research is mainly focussed on biases in the decision-
making process and risky behavior.
Raimo P. Hämäläinen is Director of the Systems Analysis Laboratory,
Aalto University, Finland. His research covers game and decision the-
ory, multicriteria optimization, environmental decision-making and
systems intelligence. He co-authored the paper which introduced the
term Behavioral Operational Research in 2013. He is recipient of the
Edgeworth-Pareto Award of the MCDM Society.
Kenneth Kyunghyun Huh is currently a consultant in IMS Consulting
Group, where he provides strategic advice to the healthcare industry. He
was awarded his PhD in Warwick Business School, where he researched
resource-based strategy processes. His research interest is in group-based
strategizing, resource conceptualisation, and strategic reaction to envi-
ronmental shifts.
Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos is Deputy Director of the Center for
Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human
Development. He works on the intersection of behavioral science and
operational research, with emphasis on decision-making. He has worked
with government and businesses on complex problems in economics,
management and health.
Erik R. Larsen is Professor of Management at Universita della Svizzera
Italia in Lugano, Switzerland. He previously held appointments at Cass
Business School, University of Bologna and London Business School.
His main areas of interest include operations management, organiza-
tional theory and energy policy.
Adarsh Murthy currently works in the industry as a strategy consultant,
leading change initiatives and strategy projects. After completing his full-
time MBA from the London Business School, his interest in the psychol-
ogy of decision-making processes and the implications for day-to-day
business decisions led him to pursue his DBA in scenario thinking.
xxiv Notes on Contributors

Chris Owen leads the Systems Modeling and Simulation Team at Aston
Business School. His research is in the area of supply chain performance
improvement using modeling and simulation, and he has a particular
interest in the challenges of modeling complex systems and representing
human behavior in simulation models.
Duncan A. Robertson is a lecturer in management sciences at
Loughborough University. He is a Fellow of St Catherine’s College,
Oxford. Before undertaking his DPhil at Saïd Business School, he quali-
fied as a Chartered Accountant with KPMG. He originally trained as a
physicist at Imperial College London.
Etiënne A. J. A. Rouwette is Chair for Research and Intervention
Methodology at the Nijmegen School of Management. His research
focuses on interventions such as facilitated modeling and its effect on
behavior. He is the 2016 President of the System Dynamics Society and a
reviewer for amongst others the European Journal of Operational Research.
Geoff Royston is a recent President of the OR Society and a former chair
of the UK Government Operational Research Service. He was head of
strategic analysis and operational research in the Department of Health
for England, where for almost two decades he was the professional lead
for a large group of health analysts.
Sebastian Villa is a PhD candidate in Operations Management at the
University of Lugano, Switzerland and a Visiting Researcher at the University
of Texas at Dallas. He is currently focusing on inventory and capacity mod-
els for understanding behavioral aspects in supply chain operations.
George Wright is a professor at Strathclyde Business School. He has pub-
lished widely on scenario thinking in a range of journals. His most recent
book is Scenario Thinking: Practical Approaches to the Future (published by
Palgrave Macmillan in 2011), which he co-authored with George Cairns.
Mike Yearworth is Reader in Systems Engineering in the Faculty of
Engineering at the University of Bristol. His research focuses on the
methodological issues of problem structuring in engineering organi-
zations. He is currently investigating the non-codified use of problem
structuring methods and the ethical questions arising from problematiz-
ing the role of engineering in society.
 List of Figures

Fig. 1.1 An integrative framework for the study of behavior in OR 8

Fig. 2.1 A fast and frugal tree for classifying vehicles approaching
a military checkpoint as hostile or non-hostile
(Keller and Katsikopoulos, in press). 34
Fig. 3.1 Methods of modeling human behavior in a
simulation study 50
Fig. 4.1 Summary of the map for understanding behavior
beyond the model 74
Fig. 5.1 (a) shows the temporal—spatial evolution of choices
made by the 120 agents for one model run
(black: facility 1; white; facility 2; grey: facility 3).
(b) shows the system average sojourn time as well
as the minimum and maximum travel time faced by
an agent in steady-state for the same model run 94
Fig. 5.2 (a) shows the grand mean sojourn time (averaged over
1,000 runs) as a function of λ. (b) shows the grand
mean sojourn time (averaged over 1,000 runs) for three
values of λ as a function of the minimum time
difference required for agents to switch facilities 95
Fig. 6.1 Supply chain structure 115
Fig. 6.2 System Dynamics model for a single-supplier single-retailer
supply chain 116
Fig. 6.3 Average vs. optimal retailer supply gap 118

xxv
xxvi Contents

Fig. 6.4 Average vs. optimal supplier capacity 124

Fig. 6.5 Simulation of the proposed heuristic and actual
decisions for selected subjects in each treatment for
the retailer experiment (subject ID in parenthesis) 126
Fig. 6.6 Simulation of the proposed heuristic and actual decisions
for selected subjects in each treatment for the supplier
experiment (subject ID in parenthesis) 127
Fig. 7.1 Agent-based vs. analytical modeling approaches 142
Fig. 7.2 (a) Initial conditions (b) Equilibrium conditions showing
segregation produced by agent-level behavior, not by
the system itself 145
Fig. 7.3 Agent-based operationalization of the Lotka–Volterra
systems model 146
Fig. 7.4 Population comparisons between (a) the Agent-Based
Model (ABM) implementation and (b) the original Systems
Dynamics (SD) Lotka–Volterra Model 150
Fig. 7.5 The Drossel and Schwabl (1992) Forest Fire Model
(Operationalized in Watts and Gilbert 2014) showing
blank cells (black) and the spread of fire (grey) through
trees (white) 151
Fig. 7.6 (a) Cellular and (b) Social network representations 152
Fig. 7.7 Sample power law of distribution of fire size 153
Fig. 8.1 Brunswick’s lens model 165
Fig. 8.2 Matching real with perceived inventory after
updating information 166
Fig. 8.3 Stock and flow diagram showing the Brunswikian
principle on decision making 168
Fig. 8.4 Matching real with perceived inventory in diverse
situations after updating information 169
Fig. 8.5 Dissatisfaction during adjustment processes in
diverse situations 170
Fig. 8.6 Cue adjustment processes in diverse situations 171
Fig. 11.1 Reference mode of behavior (left) and causal diagram
at end of first session 215
Fig. 11.2 Stock and flow diagram on client acquisition 217
Fig. 11.3 A possible causal mechanism relating the group model
building process and goals 222
 List of Figures xxvii

Fig. 11.4 The impact of group model building on persuasion,

attitudes and behavior (based on Rouwette 2003, p. 116) 224
Fig. 12.1 Trend line showing the number of behavioral OR
publications since 1956. Trend line based on data
between 1956 and 1999 248
Fig. 13.1 The Health Belief Model (Rosenstock 1996 and
Becker 1974) 270
Fig. 13.2 The Theory of Planned Behavior (Ajzen 1988) 271
Fig. 13.3 The HBM combined with the PECS constructs for
diabetic retinopathy 272
Fig. 14.1 Framework for Behavioral Operational Research study 285
Fig. 14.2 Schematic view of the Field Optimization Suite 289
Fig. 14.3 Visualization of behavior in planning, field and
allocation teams 292
Fig. 16.1 Sector diagram of an M&A integration project 325
Fig. 16.2 Causal diagram of feedback structure driving M&A
integration performance 328
Fig. 16.3 Top Panel: Realised synergies, uncertainty about change,
integration fatigue, and pressure to accelerate realisation
of synergies in death spiral scenario. Bottom Panel:
Commitment to integration, voluntary turnover fraction
of total employees, and experience and skill level index
in the death spiral scenario 332
Fig. 17.1 Changes in Group A’s number of resources/factors in
chronological order 344
Fig. 17.2 Changes in Group B’s number of resources/factors in
chronological order 346
Fig. 18.1 Human behavior forms a key component of an
alarm system. (a) A very simple model of fetal heart
monitoring. (b) False alarms lead to behavioral response,
degrading the performance of the monitoring system 361
Fig. 18.2 The Johari window provides a wider view of OR.
(a) The Johari window. (b) A Johari window for OR? 375
Fig. 18.3 Behavioral understanding is a key thread in a coherent
fabric of OR 376
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
 “I beg your pardon, gentlemen,” said Tom Locke, his face flushed.
“I believe I am somewhat late, but it was the fault of my watch, which
I have discovered is slow. I hope I have not kept you waiting long.”
He bowed to everybody in a general, pleasant way, smiling on
Cope, who had sprung forward to grip his hand.
“I knowed you’d come,” said the grocer. “I told them you’d be here.
Now, gents, you can go ahead.”
A hard gleam had appeared in the eyes of Tom Locke as he noted
the presence of Benton King, but, after the first swift glance, he
ignored the lumberman’s son.
The meeting was called to order in the regular manner, and
Kilgore read the written protest of Manager Riley, which, as it
appeared, had privately been formally worded by the lawyer himself.
The document curtly charged that “the baseball player passing under
the name of Tom Locke and appearing as a member of the
Kingsbridge team of the Northern League” was in reality Paul
Hazelton, of Princeton, and made the claim that, because of
“unterminated negotiations,” Riley held an indisputable right to the
man’s services. Locke’s face wore a half-mocking smile as he
listened to the reading.
“You have heard the charge, sir,” said Anson Graham, turning to
Tom. “What answer have you to make?”
This was the moment Cope had dreaded, but his pitcher had given
assurance that he would be ready to meet every charge, and he
waited now, his lips parted, for the young man to answer. His
surprise, however, amounted to something bordering on
consternation when Locke quietly replied:
“It seems to me, Mr. President, that the first duty of the man who
makes this charge is to establish that I am the party referred to in the
document.”
“Huh!” grunted Riley, without regard for the regular order of
procedure. “’Twon’t do ye no good to deny it. We’ve got the proof.”
 “Pardon me, Riley,” said Graham reprovingly; “I am questioning
the young man. Do you deny, sir, that you are Paul Hazelton, of
Princeton?”
“Yes, sir,” was the prompt, clear answer, “I deny it.”
Henry Cope nearly fell off his chair. In great agitation, he reached
out, grasped the speaker’s coat, tugged at it, and whispered:
“Boy, boy, be keerful! It’s too late for that to do any good.”
The dismay of the grocer was apparent to all, and provoked some
smiles; but the unruffled young man simply turned and spoke to him
in a low, calm tone:
“Leave this to me, Mr. Cope, please.”
“In that case,” said the president, maintaining an impartial manner,
“it will be necessary for Manager Riley to produce satisfactory
evidence that you are Paul Hazelton. Mr. Riley, your evidence.”
“I’ve got it,” asserted Mike positively. “Mr. King can show somethin’
that’ll settle the matter in short order.”
 CHAPTER XLV
THE FORGERY

B enton King, called upon, rose and expressed regret that

circumstances had involved him in the unfortunate affair. He
spoke hurriedly, without looking at Locke, although he was well
aware that Tom’s eyes were fixed upon him all the while.
At the first sight of Kingsbridge’s left-handed pitcher, he stated, he
had been struck by the thought that he had seen the man
somewhere before, and, after racking his brain, he suddenly recalled
that it was at a game played the previous year, between Princeton
and Harvard, when Locke, to use the name he had given in
Kingsbridge, had sat in uniform upon the Princeton bench.
He went on to explain, with an effort to hide any personal
animosity in the matter, that the man’s denial that he was Hazelton
had led him to communicate with a friend in New York, requesting
this friend to go to Princeton for the purpose of obtaining the
photograph of the college pitcher. This the friend had done, getting
the picture from the photographer who was generally patronized by
the undergraduates. Concluding, King produced the photograph and
the letter that had accompanied it in the same mail, and placed them
in evidence.
Locke listened and watched, without making a movement, a
scornful smile on his lips. He heard the letter read by King, and saw
it turned over, with the picture, to Anson Graham. The president
glanced at the letter, then seemed to make a comparison of the
photographed features and those of the young man standing so
enigmatically cool beside the chair of Henry Cope.
“Sir,” said Graham, extending the picture, “do you deny that this is
your likeness?”
Locke barely glanced at it.
 “It is my picture,” he acknowledged.
“And that,” exulted Mike Riley, “does settle it! He’s Hazelton, and
here’s a letter from him, dated December twenty-seven, last year,
answering a letter o’ mine, in which I offered him twenty-five a week
and board to pitch fer Bancroft this season, a-sayin’ he wanted forty
’n’ board. Take notice that he don’t say he won’t play for twenty-five,
but that it’s jest a clever try to boost me t’ forty. I base my claim on
that letter.
“I cal’late this smooth guy, who’s had the nerve to stan’ up here an’
practically swear that he ain’t Paul Hazelton, used my offer to boost
his value with Mr. Cope, who, I hear, is payin’ him outer all reason.
Sneaky, underhand work, I call it. Such a man is dang’r’us, an’ I
hope that he will be put on the blacklist so that he won’t be able to
play on any team in the league. That’s the way to fix him.”
“I would like,” said Locke, “the privilege of examining that letter.”
“Let him see it arter the rest have seen it,” said Riley. “’Twon’t do
him no good t’ destroy it.”
“I have no desire to destroy it,” declared Tom, when the letter
presently reached his hands and he had glanced it over. “On the
contrary, I have a most powerful desire to preserve it carefully; for it
is a miserable forgery, and it would give me no little satisfaction to
see the scoundrels responsible for its production properly
prosecuted for a criminal offense.”
“Bah!” snarled Riley. “More of his bluffin’. He must think we’re fools
t’ let him put over anything like that on us. He’s trapped, an’ he can’t
wiggle outer it. Mr. President, I urge immediate action on my protest,
and I hope the directors of the league will put Mr. Paul Hazelton on
the blacklist.”
Again Henry Cope tugged at Locke’s coat skirts; he looked pitifully
downcast and disheartened.
“You tole me,” he whispered dolefully, “that you had it on ’em
somehow, but it seems t’ me that they’ve got it on you.”
 “Wait a minute, Mr. Cope,” was the cool reply; “this meeting is not
over, and there is something mighty interesting yet to come.” He
turned to the others. “Mr. President, I have some witnesses, waiting
outside at my request, whom I ask leave to introduce. I will call
them.”
Stepping swiftly to one of the open windows, he thrust his head
out and called. Directly footsteps were again heard on the stairs. The
door was flung open to admit Sam Bryant, the bell boy of the Central
Hotel at Kingsbridge, followed by a stranger, who did not seem more
than twenty years of age. The entrance of the boy appeared, for
once, at least, to jostle Bob Hutchinson out of his usual unemotional
calm, and the manager glared at Sam, alarm and menace in his
unpleasant eyes.
“I have asserted that this letter,” said Locke, holding up the missive
in question, “is a forgery. It is a rather clever imitation of my
handwriting, a specimen of which was taken from my desk in my
room last Sunday, together with a letter which the pilferer dared not
present as evidence at this meeting.
“I have reasons to believe that a party present in this room was
guilty of rifling that desk. It happens that I did a slight favor for the
younger brother of this lad here, who is a bell boy at the Central, and
Sammy’s conscience has been troubling him during the past few
days, finally leading him into a confession which interested me not a
little. Go ahead, Sammy, and tell what you have to tell.”
In less than a minute, the icy Mr. Hutchinson, warmed to the
melting point, was on his feet denouncing Sammy Bryant as a
wicked little fabricator; for the lad had told of being bribed by
Hutchinson to slip the pass-key of Locke’s room from the office rack
and unlock the door while Tom was absent at church, and had
averred that, watching, he had seen Hutchinson sneak into the room.
“I’ll make you smart for this, you young rascal!” declared Hutch
savagely. “You’ll lose your job, anyhow.”
“Mebbe,” returned the boy; “but you’ll lose yourn.”
 “What’s this mess got t’ do with Hazelton’s letter ter me?”
demanded Riley, essaying a diversion. “If it was true, which I don’t
b’lieve at all, ’twouldn’t have nothin’ t’ do with the genuineness of that
letter from Paul Hazelton.”
“But,” said Locke, something almost like pity in his contemptuous
smile, “to illustrate what pitiful bunglers you and Hutchinson are,
Riley, let me tell you that in making an imitation of my handwriting
and attaching the supposed signature of Paul Hazelton, you have
mired yourselves in a pit of your own digging. For, as I am not Paul
Hazelton, a letter written in imitation of my penmanship and signed
with his name must be a forgery. It is my turn now to put the work of
a photographer in evidence.”
 CHAPTER XLVI
CLEARED UP

T he youthful stranger handed over a large, square, flat package,

and Locke quickly removed the wrapper, displaying a group
photograph of a team of youthful baseball players, upon the breasts
of whose shirts could be seen the word “Princeton.”
“This,” said Tom, displaying the picture, “shows the Princeton
College nine of this season, with the name of every player printed at
the bottom. Here you may see the name of Hazelton, followed by the
letter P, and I would like to have you look at it well; look at it, and see
if you would call it my picture. Also look over the rest of the faces to
see if you can find mine among them.”
Shaking with excitement, his eyes bulging with wonder, Henry
Cope was standing on his toes to peer at the picture over Locke’s
shoulder. Anson Graham was looking at it, too; and, with the
exception of Hutchinson and King, the others flocked round to get a
peep.
“Great sassafras!” spluttered Cope. “I writ a letter, makin’ Paul
Hazelton an offer to pitch for Kingsbridge, and you come in answer
to that letter. You likewise sent me a message—”
“Saying: ‘Coming, P. Hazelton,’” interrupted Locke. “Of course, it
never occurred to you that there might be two Hazeltons. I have
never denied that my name is Hazelton, but I have denied repeatedly
that it is Paul Hazelton. It is Philip. Four years ago I pitched a few
games for the Princeton varsity in my junior year, but was obliged to
give it up because of the opposition of my father, a clergyman, who,
having had a friend killed in the game, has a perfect horror of it.
“My younger brother, Paul, having caught the fever, has incurred
the displeasure of our strait-laced father to the extent of being
refused further financial assistance in completing his college career.
Paul told me of this, and, at the same time, of a splendid offer he had
received to pitch professionally on a bush-league team. He had this
year made a record for himself with his college team, but it looked as
if he would be forced to play for money in order to pay his way
through college.
“One year—spent mainly in waiting for clients—as a lawyer in a
small city had not placed me in position to help him, but finally I was
struck with the idea of filling that baseball opening in his place.
Belonging to an athletic club, I had kept in good condition, having
continued to pitch occasionally after graduating from college. In ten
or twelve weeks of summer baseball, at the salary offered, I could
earn enough to pay my brother’s expenses at Princeton for the
coming year.
“If the man who had made the offer were to learn that it was a
brother of the famous Princeton pitcher who responded, instead of
the pitcher himself, he might be inclined to cut down the amount he
had flourished as such an alluring bait, and hence it was decided not
to take him into our confidence. Mr. Cope, I humbly crave your
pardon.”
“Oh, thunder!” exclaimed the delighted grocer. “Don’t mention it!
Lordy! Lordy! Ain’t it funny!”
There were some persons present, however, to whom the humor
of the situation made no appeal whatever.
The Kingsbridge pitcher continued:
“As the given name of both my brother and myself begins with P,
the mistake of the photographer who handed out one of my pictures
when Mr. King’s obliging friend called for a photograph of Paul
Hazelton is readily understood. In order to settle this controversy for
all time, I thought best to wire my brother to come on, and it was to
meet him here in Bancroft that I left Kingsbridge this morning.
Gentlemen, let me introduce Paul Hazelton.”
The youthful stranger who had arrived in company with the bell
boy bowed and smiled.
 “I’m it,” he said. “But, to judge by his record in this league, when it
comes to pitching, I’m an ‘also ran’ compared with Phil.”
“It should be plain to you now, Mr. Riley,” said Philip Hazelton
grimly, “that you made a very bad break when you produced a letter,
seemingly in my handwriting, dated at Princeton, and signed with the
name of Paul Hazelton. Mr. Hutchinson, also, has blundered in—
Oh, by the way where is he? He seems to be missing.”
“He’s sneaked,” cried Sammy Bryant. “He got out when nobody
was lookin’.”
“He’d better sneak,” declared Henry Cope. “I don’t blame him a bit
for skedaddlin’ outer here. He’d better git outer Kingsbridge in a
hurry, too.”

The following evening found Philip Hazelton meditating over a

daintily perfumed note that had been brought him by a boy. A dozen
times he read it; as many times he started up, as if with a purpose,
only to falter.
At last, however, he literally tore the blue-serge suit off the
hangers in the wardrobe, and lost no time in donning it, save that
wasted through the fumbling produced by his almost frantic haste.
“After all,” he told himself, rejoicing, “she wasn’t to blame. King did
it with that photograph. It’s no wonder she thought me untruthful. Will
I call at eight this evening; will I please call at eight? Will I! It’s almost
half past seven now. I’m afraid I never can wait for eight o’clock.”
It was Janet herself who let him in when he rang at the parsonage
door.
“Mr. Locke—I mean Hazelton,” she said, “I want to offer you a
humble apology. It was simply dreadful of me. Can you pardon me?”
He did not leave her long in doubt, and the pleasure of that
Sunday meeting in the woods paled in comparison with the delight of
the ensuing hour. Henry Cope had improved the first opportunity to
tell her all that had taken place at the meeting in Bancroft.
 “Oh,” she cried, when she thought of it, as they sat close together
in the parlor, “I have a surprise for you. I told my father all about it,
and he says he knows your father; that they were chums at college.
Isn’t that a delightful coincidence. And father wants to meet you, and
I think—I’m quite sure—he’ll form a better opinion of some baseball
players. I’m going to make him let me attend every game here in
Kingsbridge. He just can’t keep me away, that’s all.”
Little did she realize when she spoke that she was destined to
witness Lefty’s struggles and success as a Major League pitcher afar
from Kingsbridge and the “bush” where he had created such a
sensation. The story of his first season in fast company is told in the
next volume of this series, the title of which is, “Lefty o’ the Big
League.”
In the course of their chat, he mentioned his sister, whom he
affectionately called “Tid,” but, as she turned away at that moment,
he failed to detect the strange look that flashed into Janet’s eyes.
When he finally left, she accompanied him to the door to let him out.
The shaded lamp in the hall was low and dim, and they stood there
some moments, close together, speaking in subdued tones, save
when—
After he was gone, she lingered by the door, listening to the sound
of his footsteps until it died away on the silent street.

THE END
 Transcriber’s Notes:
Punctuation and spelling inaccuracies were silently
corrected.
Archaic and variable spelling has been preserved.
Variations in hyphenation and compound words have been
preserved.
*** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK LEFTY O' THE
BUSH ***

Updated editions will replace the previous one—the old editions

will be renamed.

Creating the works from print editions not protected by U.S.

copyright law means that no one owns a United States copyright
in these works, so the Foundation (and you!) can copy and
distribute it in the United States without permission and without
paying copyright royalties. Special rules, set forth in the General
Terms of Use part of this license, apply to copying and
distributing Project Gutenberg™ electronic works to protect the
PROJECT GUTENBERG™ concept and trademark. Project
Gutenberg is a registered trademark, and may not be used if
you charge for an eBook, except by following the terms of the
trademark license, including paying royalties for use of the
Project Gutenberg trademark. If you do not charge anything for
copies of this eBook, complying with the trademark license is
very easy. You may use this eBook for nearly any purpose such
as creation of derivative works, reports, performances and
research. Project Gutenberg eBooks may be modified and
printed and given away—you may do practically ANYTHING in
the United States with eBooks not protected by U.S. copyright
law. Redistribution is subject to the trademark license, especially
commercial redistribution.

START: FULL LICENSE

THE FULL PROJECT GUTENBERG LICENSE
 PLEASE READ THIS BEFORE YOU DISTRIBUTE OR USE THIS WORK

To protect the Project Gutenberg™ mission of promoting the

free distribution of electronic works, by using or distributing this
work (or any other work associated in any way with the phrase
“Project Gutenberg”), you agree to comply with all the terms of
the Full Project Gutenberg™ License available with this file or
online at www.gutenberg.org/license.

Section 1. General Terms of Use and

Redistributing Project Gutenberg™
electronic works
1.A. By reading or using any part of this Project Gutenberg™
electronic work, you indicate that you have read, understand,
agree to and accept all the terms of this license and intellectual
property (trademark/copyright) agreement. If you do not agree to
abide by all the terms of this agreement, you must cease using
and return or destroy all copies of Project Gutenberg™
electronic works in your possession. If you paid a fee for
obtaining a copy of or access to a Project Gutenberg™
electronic work and you do not agree to be bound by the terms
of this agreement, you may obtain a refund from the person or
entity to whom you paid the fee as set forth in paragraph 1.E.8.

1.B. “Project Gutenberg” is a registered trademark. It may only

be used on or associated in any way with an electronic work by
people who agree to be bound by the terms of this agreement.
There are a few things that you can do with most Project
Gutenberg™ electronic works even without complying with the
full terms of this agreement. See paragraph 1.C below. There
are a lot of things you can do with Project Gutenberg™
electronic works if you follow the terms of this agreement and
help preserve free future access to Project Gutenberg™
electronic works. See paragraph 1.E below.
1.C. The Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation (“the
Foundation” or PGLAF), owns a compilation copyright in the
collection of Project Gutenberg™ electronic works. Nearly all the
individual works in the collection are in the public domain in the
United States. If an individual work is unprotected by copyright
law in the United States and you are located in the United
States, we do not claim a right to prevent you from copying,
distributing, performing, displaying or creating derivative works
based on the work as long as all references to Project
Gutenberg are removed. Of course, we hope that you will
support the Project Gutenberg™ mission of promoting free
access to electronic works by freely sharing Project
Gutenberg™ works in compliance with the terms of this
agreement for keeping the Project Gutenberg™ name
associated with the work. You can easily comply with the terms
of this agreement by keeping this work in the same format with
its attached full Project Gutenberg™ License when you share it
without charge with others.

1.D. The copyright laws of the place where you are located also
govern what you can do with this work. Copyright laws in most
countries are in a constant state of change. If you are outside
the United States, check the laws of your country in addition to
the terms of this agreement before downloading, copying,
displaying, performing, distributing or creating derivative works
based on this work or any other Project Gutenberg™ work. The
Foundation makes no representations concerning the copyright
status of any work in any country other than the United States.

1.E. Unless you have removed all references to Project

Gutenberg:

1.E.1. The following sentence, with active links to, or other

immediate access to, the full Project Gutenberg™ License must
appear prominently whenever any copy of a Project
Gutenberg™ work (any work on which the phrase “Project
Gutenberg” appears, or with which the phrase “Project
Gutenberg” is associated) is accessed, displayed, performed,
viewed, copied or distributed:

This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere in the United

States and most other parts of the world at no cost and with
almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it
away or re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg
License included with this eBook or online at
www.gutenberg.org. If you are not located in the United
States, you will have to check the laws of the country where
you are located before using this eBook.

1.E.2. If an individual Project Gutenberg™ electronic work is

derived from texts not protected by U.S. copyright law (does not
contain a notice indicating that it is posted with permission of the
copyright holder), the work can be copied and distributed to
anyone in the United States without paying any fees or charges.
If you are redistributing or providing access to a work with the
phrase “Project Gutenberg” associated with or appearing on the
work, you must comply either with the requirements of
paragraphs 1.E.1 through 1.E.7 or obtain permission for the use
of the work and the Project Gutenberg™ trademark as set forth
in paragraphs 1.E.8 or 1.E.9.

1.E.3. If an individual Project Gutenberg™ electronic work is

posted with the permission of the copyright holder, your use and
distribution must comply with both paragraphs 1.E.1 through
1.E.7 and any additional terms imposed by the copyright holder.
Additional terms will be linked to the Project Gutenberg™
License for all works posted with the permission of the copyright
holder found at the beginning of this work.

1.E.4. Do not unlink or detach or remove the full Project

Gutenberg™ License terms from this work, or any files
containing a part of this work or any other work associated with
Project Gutenberg™.
 1.E.5. Do not copy, display, perform, distribute or redistribute
this electronic work, or any part of this electronic work, without
prominently displaying the sentence set forth in paragraph 1.E.1
with active links or immediate access to the full terms of the
Project Gutenberg™ License.

1.E.6. You may convert to and distribute this work in any binary,
compressed, marked up, nonproprietary or proprietary form,
including any word processing or hypertext form. However, if
you provide access to or distribute copies of a Project
Gutenberg™ work in a format other than “Plain Vanilla ASCII” or
other format used in the official version posted on the official
Project Gutenberg™ website (www.gutenberg.org), you must, at
no additional cost, fee or expense to the user, provide a copy, a
means of exporting a copy, or a means of obtaining a copy upon
request, of the work in its original “Plain Vanilla ASCII” or other
form. Any alternate format must include the full Project
Gutenberg™ License as specified in paragraph 1.E.1.

1.E.7. Do not charge a fee for access to, viewing, displaying,

performing, copying or distributing any Project Gutenberg™
works unless you comply with paragraph 1.E.8 or 1.E.9.

1.E.8. You may charge a reasonable fee for copies of or

providing access to or distributing Project Gutenberg™
electronic works provided that:

• You pay a royalty fee of 20% of the gross profits you derive from
the use of Project Gutenberg™ works calculated using the
method you already use to calculate your applicable taxes. The
fee is owed to the owner of the Project Gutenberg™ trademark,
but he has agreed to donate royalties under this paragraph to
the Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation. Royalty
payments must be paid within 60 days following each date on
which you prepare (or are legally required to prepare) your
periodic tax returns. Royalty payments should be clearly marked
as such and sent to the Project Gutenberg Literary Archive
Foundation at the address specified in Section 4, “Information
 about donations to the Project Gutenberg Literary Archive
Foundation.”

• You provide a full refund of any money paid by a user who

notifies you in writing (or by e-mail) within 30 days of receipt that
s/he does not agree to the terms of the full Project Gutenberg™
License. You must require such a user to return or destroy all
copies of the works possessed in a physical medium and
discontinue all use of and all access to other copies of Project
Gutenberg™ works.

• You provide, in accordance with paragraph 1.F.3, a full refund of

any money paid for a work or a replacement copy, if a defect in
the electronic work is discovered and reported to you within 90
days of receipt of the work.

• You comply with all other terms of this agreement for free
distribution of Project Gutenberg™ works.

1.E.9. If you wish to charge a fee or distribute a Project

Gutenberg™ electronic work or group of works on different
terms than are set forth in this agreement, you must obtain
permission in writing from the Project Gutenberg Literary
Archive Foundation, the manager of the Project Gutenberg™
trademark. Contact the Foundation as set forth in Section 3
below.

1.F.

1.F.1. Project Gutenberg volunteers and employees expend

considerable effort to identify, do copyright research on,
transcribe and proofread works not protected by U.S. copyright
law in creating the Project Gutenberg™ collection. Despite
these efforts, Project Gutenberg™ electronic works, and the
medium on which they may be stored, may contain “Defects,”
such as, but not limited to, incomplete, inaccurate or corrupt
data, transcription errors, a copyright or other intellectual
property infringement, a defective or damaged disk or other
medium, a computer virus, or computer codes that damage or
cannot be read by your equipment.

1.F.2. LIMITED WARRANTY, DISCLAIMER OF DAMAGES -

Except for the “Right of Replacement or Refund” described in
paragraph 1.F.3, the Project Gutenberg Literary Archive
Foundation, the owner of the Project Gutenberg™ trademark,
and any other party distributing a Project Gutenberg™ electronic
work under this agreement, disclaim all liability to you for
damages, costs and expenses, including legal fees. YOU
AGREE THAT YOU HAVE NO REMEDIES FOR NEGLIGENCE,
STRICT LIABILITY, BREACH OF WARRANTY OR BREACH
OF CONTRACT EXCEPT THOSE PROVIDED IN PARAGRAPH
1.F.3. YOU AGREE THAT THE FOUNDATION, THE
TRADEMARK OWNER, AND ANY DISTRIBUTOR UNDER
THIS AGREEMENT WILL NOT BE LIABLE TO YOU FOR
ACTUAL, DIRECT, INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL, PUNITIVE
OR INCIDENTAL DAMAGES EVEN IF YOU GIVE NOTICE OF
THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGE.

1.F.3. LIMITED RIGHT OF REPLACEMENT OR REFUND - If

you discover a defect in this electronic work within 90 days of
receiving it, you can receive a refund of the money (if any) you
paid for it by sending a written explanation to the person you
received the work from. If you received the work on a physical
medium, you must return the medium with your written
explanation. The person or entity that provided you with the
defective work may elect to provide a replacement copy in lieu
of a refund. If you received the work electronically, the person or
entity providing it to you may choose to give you a second
opportunity to receive the work electronically in lieu of a refund.
If the second copy is also defective, you may demand a refund
in writing without further opportunities to fix the problem.

1.F.4. Except for the limited right of replacement or refund set

forth in paragraph 1.F.3, this work is provided to you ‘AS-IS’,
WITH NO OTHER WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS
OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO
WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR
ANY PURPOSE.

1.F.5. Some states do not allow disclaimers of certain implied

warranties or the exclusion or limitation of certain types of
damages. If any disclaimer or limitation set forth in this
agreement violates the law of the state applicable to this
agreement, the agreement shall be interpreted to make the
maximum disclaimer or limitation permitted by the applicable
state law. The invalidity or unenforceability of any provision of
this agreement shall not void the remaining provisions.

1.F.6. INDEMNITY - You agree to indemnify and hold the

Foundation, the trademark owner, any agent or employee of the
Foundation, anyone providing copies of Project Gutenberg™
electronic works in accordance with this agreement, and any
volunteers associated with the production, promotion and
distribution of Project Gutenberg™ electronic works, harmless
from all liability, costs and expenses, including legal fees, that
arise directly or indirectly from any of the following which you do
or cause to occur: (a) distribution of this or any Project
Gutenberg™ work, (b) alteration, modification, or additions or
deletions to any Project Gutenberg™ work, and (c) any Defect
you cause.

Section 2. Information about the Mission of

Project Gutenberg™
Project Gutenberg™ is synonymous with the free distribution of
electronic works in formats readable by the widest variety of
computers including obsolete, old, middle-aged and new
computers. It exists because of the efforts of hundreds of
volunteers and donations from people in all walks of life.

Volunteers and financial support to provide volunteers with the

assistance they need are critical to reaching Project