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Blaming Immigrants
Blaming Immigrants
Nationalism and the Economics of
Global Movement
NEERAJ KAUSHAL
1
Introduction: It’s Not a Crisis
2
Causes of Discontent
3
The Costs and Benefits of Restricting Immigration
4
Is America’s Immigration System Broken?
5
From Global to Local: Toward Integration or Exclusion?
6
The Balance Sheet: Economic Costs and Benefits of Immigration
7
Refugees and Discontent
8
Crime, Terrorism, and Immigration
9
Addressing the Discontent
Notes
Index
1
Introduction
It’s Not a Crisis
The rising discontent hides the fact that immigration is by far the
slowest-moving and relatively untapped dimension of globalization.15
Just compare it with the others. Global exports (in proportion to
global output) increased fivefold between 1870 and 2016.16 Foreign
direct investment (FDI) increased almost two hundredfold between
1971 and 2015.17 Despite the Great Recession and the growing
cacophony of deglobalization, the average annual FDI flow between
2010 and 2017 was double the flow a decade earlier.
At 3 percent of global population, immigration appears
unimpressive given that the three primary costs—travel expense,
time, and postmigration cost of long-distance communications with
family and friends back home—have plummeted over the past
century. For those with internet access, the cost of long-distance
communication is close to zero; travel cost has fallen to less than a
tenth, and long-distance travel time to less than a hundredth, and in
some cases, a thousandth, of what they were a hundred years ago.18
What is impressive is not the volume of immigration but its
paucity. This is even more impressive given the existing global
economic inequalities and demographic disparities. Some hope that
immigration will rise to reduce these disparities.19 But so far there is
little evidence of that happening. Consider Africa and Europe, two
continents with dramatically different demographics and economies.
Europe is aging and shrinking; Africa is young and growing. Europe
is rich; Africa is poor. In 1900 a quarter of the world population lived
in Europe and only one-twelfth in Africa. By 2050 the two continents
will exchange places on the global demographic map: a quarter of
the world population will be in Africa, and less than a fourteenth in
Europe. For immigration to make a dent in these proportions, it will
have to be many times the current or past levels, which appears
unlikely given the public intolerance and political response.
Despite global disparities that should propel immigration, and
despite growing protests against immigration that will discourage it,
the future of immigration will not be very different from its recent
past. It will rise in some countries and decline in others. But globally,
the proportion of immigration in world population is unlikely to
change dramatically. The fact is, most people live and die in the
country, and often the district, village, or city, of their birth.
Immigration is not easy. Older, unhealthy, and risk-averse people do
not migrate to foreign countries.
Causes of Immigration
This Book
Whence the growing global discontent about immigration? Is
immigration its true source? Can countries restrict immigration, or
are the forces of the global economy and political disorder that cause
immigration and refugee flows so strong that they overwhelm the
ability of nation states to control it? These questions matter because
if immigration is not the primary cause of discontent, immigration
restrictions will not calm the passions of the distraught and
disgruntled native-born. Likewise, if globalization has limited how
well nations can restrict or monitor immigration, even if immigration
were the cause of this discontent, restrictive policies would not be
able to address it.
This book investigates the validity of populist critiques of
immigration globally to answer these questions. Chapter 2
investigates what I consider the seven core drivers of anxiety in
industrialized countries. Much of the rising political and economic
discontent, I find, is due to a series of core problems ailing these
countries. It is neither the volume nor pace of immigration but the
appetite of nations to accept and absorb new immigrants that is
creating this disaffection. Immigration has become a common
scapegoat, and this commonality is taken as evidence of its
culpability.
Chapter 3 examines the costs and benefits of immigration
restrictions and the success and failure of specific restrictive policies
across the United States and Europe in reducing immigration, to
answer whether restrictive policies have worked.
Chapters 4 and 5 focus on populist critiques of immigration in the
United States. Chapter 4 challenges the widely held view that the
U.S. immigration system is broken. Using a global perspective, I
arrive at a more nuanced picture: there are facets of U.S.
immigration that make it the envy of the rich and emerging
economies, there are facets that countries with diverse backgrounds
and experiences such as Canada, China, Germany, and the United
Kingdom have adopted, and there are facets that need mending. By
calling it a broken system, politicians and immigration activists feed
into the notion that “foreigners” are the cause of all problems. I argue
that such attitudes create two main problems: they deflect policy
focus from fundamental issues and direct public anger toward
foreigners.
Chapter 5 reviews the rise of local legislative initiatives in the
United States that have led to a de facto devolution of U.S.
immigration policy to local bodies. I argue that this devolution, to
some extent, has worked in accommodating the wide variety of
attitudes toward immigration across the country.
Chapter 6 reviews the large literature on the economic costs and
benefits of immigration to study whether and how immigration is
associated with rising economic anxiety in host countries. I find that
globally, immigration debates in host countries are caught in the
whirlwind of capital and culture. There is consensus among
economists that economic benefits from a relatively open
immigration policy outweigh its economic costs.41 But immigration
does not affect all residents equally—many benefit from it and some
are hurt. Benefits are mostly diffused throughout the economy, but
the costs are often borne by certain groups or geographic regions.
Even so, the primary opposition to immigration is not rooted in
economic insecurity but in issues of nativism and cultural identity and
in the ability of host countries to accept and absorb foreigners.
Chapter 7 studies the growing refugee movement globally, and
public and political response toward it. Chapter 8 investigates
whether immigration is the cause of rising international terrorism.
Finally, chapter 9 looks into a set of policy prescriptions that
countries have adopted to answer the question of what can be done
to pacify public hostility toward immigrants.
In the twenty-first century, more than ever before, human mobility
is critical to economic growth. Immigration is a tiny sliver of the
overall cross-border human mobility for business, employment,
education, and tourism. By conservative estimates, cross-border
travel for these purposes together is close to eighty times the annual
immigration inflow.42 Without restricting this cross-border travel, it is
virtually impossible to effectively restrict immigration. Even if a tiny 1
percent of these short-term migrants and travelers decide to
overstay their visa restrictions, that would leave irregular immigration
inflow close to what it is now.43 Closing down legal routes to cross-
border mobility and immigration will increase flows through illegal
and dangerous routes. The economic cost of restricting cross-border
flows is very high, and the efficacy of militarized borders in
containing immigration is questionable and often counterproductive.
It seems that despite the growing discontent toward immigrants
and the rising popularity of right-wing leaders around the world,
many countries will hesitate to shut their doors on immigrants
because of the economic and demographic repercussions. (The
post-Brexit United Kingdom is an example of this ambivalence
toward immigration.) Further, despite the unprecedented
demographic and economic pressures that most industrialized
countries face today that can be somewhat eased with immigration,
these economies will hesitate to open the door wider to ease these
pressures owing to nativist political forces that oppose immigration
and blame it for most of what ails their economies.
2
Causes of Discontent
The fear that immigrants bring with them alien cultures that threaten
to disrupt the identity of host nations is high among local populations.
It does not require a large wave of immigration to trigger crises of
identity and culture among native populations. Indeed, discontent is
less severe in states with more diversity. Muslims are perceived a
threat in Hungary and Poland even though they constitute a tiny
proportion (less than 0.1 percent) of their populations.6 In a survey of
Polish citizens, more than half the respondents said that they would
welcome Americans, Czechs, and Germans—but not Arabs and
Turks. The Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia also want to shut
out Muslim immigrants; they have a Christians-only policy for
accepting asylum seekers from Syria.7 This is said to be not because
they have too many Muslim immigrants but because they do not
have any. “We don’t have any mosques in Slovakia so how can
Muslims be integrated?” said a government spokesman.8
Immigrants do not always have to look different or practice a
different religion to be perceived as a cultural threat. The threat of
foreigners in the Brexit vote in 2016, for instance, did not come from
dark-skinned South Asians or Africans or Muslims from the Middle
East but from fair-complexioned fellow Europeans from Poland and
Romania.
Changing demography from immigration is not the only threat to
cultural identity. Political scientist Samuel Huntington argued in his
book Who Are We? that the rise of nationalism in the United States
was a response to national elites developing international identities
and national corporations representing global interests.9 It is not just
the volume of new and existing immigration but the fear of
immigrants’ presence in the near or distant future that is triggering
identity and cultural conflicts in some countries. “We don’t want to
end up like Germany!” said Andrej Babis, prime minister of the
Czech Republic, in opposing EU migrant/refugee quotas.10
The prevalence of distinctly diverse public attitudes toward Syrian
refugees across the Middle East and Europe documents how cultural
dissonance influences attitudes toward immigrants and refugees.
Between 2011 and 2016 Turkey received close to 2.7 million Syrian
refugees, which is 3.5 percent of its population. Europe received a
little over one million Syrian refugees in this period, which is a mere
0.2 percent of Europe’s population. Both in percentage and in
absolute terms, the refugee inflow has been much larger in Turkey
than in the European Union, but anxiety over refugees is far greater
in EU countries than in Turkey. Despite a growing incidence of
terrorism on Turkish soil arising from the civil war in neighboring
Syria, public and governmental sympathy for Syrian refugees
remains high in Turkey, whereas the refugee influx has strengthened
anti-immigration political parties throughout the European Union.
A survey of Turkish citizens conducted in 2016, at the peak of the
Syrian refugee crisis, found that 73 percent of respondents believed
accepting and supporting refugees is a humanitarian mission; 58
percent considered it to be Turkey’s historical and geographical
responsibility to support Syrian refugees, and 77 percent supported
refugee integration.11 Such sympathetic views of refugees are not so
common in Europe or the United States. One possible explanation is
religious affinity and a sense of common history with Syrians among
Turkish people.
Economist Onur Altindag and I studied the Syrian refugee influx
and found that it had a modestly negative effect on voter attitude
toward President Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP),
the architect of the open-door refugee policy in Turkey. The small
proportion of voters who decided not to vote for the AKP in the
presidential elections in response to the refugee influx did not join
parties that opposed refugees but simply did not vote.12 Similar
studies in many European countries, on the other hand, document
the strengthening of far-right political parties in response to
immigrant influx.13
Historically, anti-immigrant sentiments in traditional immigrant
destinations such as the United States weakened as residents got
acclimated to the presence of immigrants and the flows abated. In
the long run, immigrants tend to adopt host-country cultures. Host
communities also get used to migrant cultures and begin to
appreciate and enjoy ethnic foods, music, and arts. A hundred years
ago, racism toward the then ethnic minorities—Italian, Jewish, and
Chinese people—in New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, and other
large cities was comparable to what Mexicans experience in
Alabama, Arizona, and North Carolina in the early twenty-first
century. Italian, Irish, Jewish, and many other ethnicities now
constitute the multiple identities of large cities in the United States. In
the long run, the key to pacifying discontents lies in how well the
current flows of immigrants integrate with host country cultures and
how they contribute to host societies. When Syrian refugees in
Germany become economically successful and begin to contribute
toward its economy and tax system, the anxiety around them will
likely dissipate. But that may take years, even decades.
DIRECTORS: ADDRESS:
SIR GEORGE H. CHUBB, BT. HERBERT JENKINS LTD.
ALEX W. HILL, M.A. 12 ARUNDEL PLACE,
HERBERT JENKINS. HAYMARKET, LONDON.
Transcriber’s Notes
Inconsistent word hyphenation and spelling have been
regularized.
Apparent typographical errors have been changed.
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