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Wenmei Gai
Yan Du
Yunfeng Deng
Decision-making
Analysis and
Optimization Modeling
of Emergency Warnings
for Major Accidents
Decision-making Analysis and Optimization
Modeling of Emergency Warnings for Major
Accidents
Wenmei Gai Yan Du Yunfeng Deng
• •
Decision-making Analysis
and Optimization Modeling
of Emergency Warnings
for Major Accidents
123
Wenmei Gai Yunfeng Deng
China University of Geosciences Chinese Academy of Governance
Beijing, China Beijing, China
Yan Du
University of Science and Technology
Beijing
Beijing, China
The print edition is not for sale in China Mainland. Customers from China Mainland please order the
print book from: Science Press.
This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721,
Singapore
Preface
v
vi Preface
tutor of the first author’s doctoral program, Prof. Dai Shufen, tutor of the first
author’s postdoctoral research, and Mr. Li Jing, a senior engineer from China
Academy of Safety Science and Technology, have provided valued opinions and
suggestions. LI Xin, a graduate student from China Foreign Affairs University, as
well as the first author’s students, including XU Ke, GAO Ying, WANG Ning, LV
Jiang, and FENG Jianrui also have made a lot of effort in format editing and partial
proofreading. All of the efforts and help mentioned above are deeply appreciated.
Besides, the book has referenced to many research findings from scholars and
researches in the field both at home and abroad, and the authors hope to convey
thanks to all.
Moreover, the study was funded by National Natural Science Foundation of
China (Grant No. 71603017), without whose help this book would never have been
possible. Moreover, some of the researches in the book were funded by China
Postdoctoral Science Foundation funded project (Grant No. 2016M591081),
Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. 53200759046),
and also some of the funds came from China Post-Doctoral Fund and China
University of Geosciences. Their efforts greatly inspired and supported the book,
which are deeply appreciated.
Due to the limitations, there could be errors and shortcomings in the book, and
we sincerely welcome your comments and corrections.
1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 What Is Emergency Warning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.3 Leakage Accidents and Regional Evacuation in China . . . . . . . . . 5
1.3.1 The Regional Distribution of Toxic Gas Leakage
Resulting in Evacuation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.3.2 Statistical Analysis of Evacuation Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.4 Public Protection Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.4.1 The Basic Process of Emergency Evacuation . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.4.2 Safety Requirement for Personnel Evacuation for Toxic
Gas Leakage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.4.3 Determining Method of Evacuation Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.5 Evacuation Scale Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
1.5.1 Population Scale Estimation Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
1.5.2 The Influence Factors on the Scale of Evacuation . . . . . . . 21
1.6 Research Status of Emergency Decisions Both at Home
and Abroad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 22
1.7 Research Objects and Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 26
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 27
2 Emergency Warning System for Major Accidents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.1 Emergency Warning System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.1.1 Composition of the Early Warning System . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.1.2 Functions of Early Warning System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.1.3 Implementation of Early Warning System . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
2.2 Literature Review on References of Emergency Early
Warning Both at Home and Abroad . . . . . . . . . . . . . ......... 36
2.2.1 Public Alerting System in the United States . . ......... 36
2.2.2 The Public Alerting System in Japan . . . . . . . ......... 38
vii
viii Contents
Authors of the book carried out researches about emergency early-warning man-
agement and decision-making in severe accidents, and when taking toxic gas leakages
as examples, they put forward design methods for emergency early-warning system,
as well as a systematic description of emergency early-warning information com-
munication mechanism and characteristics of regional evacuation, based on a wide
range of theories, including safety engineering, information engineering, communi-
cation, behaviorology, and others. Methods such as case analysis, questionnaire
interviews, and multi-objective optimization modeling were applied. And on this
basis, a multi-objective optimization modeling and algorithm for emergency path
selection as well as evacuation risk assessment method were proposed. Six chapters
were covered by the book, and researches and findings of scholars in the field both at
home and abroad were introduced, which included the design of early-warning sys-
tem, communication, and dissemination mechanism of early-warning information,
evacuation-warning assessment, multi-objective optimization of emergency paths,
and evacuation risk assessment.
The book can both serve as a great reference for engineering technicians and
researchers in a wide range of fields, including emergency management, safety
science and engineering, disaster relief engineering, transportation optimization, as
well as materials for senior-year undergraduates and graduates of related majors in
colleges and universities.
xi
Chapter 1
Introduction
1.1 Background
China is a major country in chemicals production and use. While chemicals bring
people great convenience, they can also cause significant risks for human health,
safety, and environment. Various chemical accidents, such as explosion, fire, and
toxic chemical leakage, happen frequently, especially in recent years. Major toxic
leakages occur in China, too. For example, on December 23, a blowout happened
from the 16H well in Luojia, Kaixian, Chongqing Municipality, in which, more than
93,000 people got affected, over 65,000 people were forced to evacuate and transfer,
243 people lost their lives, and the direct economic loss rocketed to 92,627,000 yuan.
Also, on April 16, 2004, a liquid chlorine tank of Chongqing Tianyuan Chemical
Industry Plant exploded, resulting in nine deaths. The local government evacuated
around 150,000 people surrounding the accident site, and the direct economic loss
reached 2,770,000 rmb. On March 25, 2006, there is a blowout in the No. 2 well of
Luojia, Kaixian County, Chongqing Municipality, causing more than 10,000 people
evacuated and a 4,283,130,000 rmb direct loss. On December 21, the gas well in
Qingxi, Xuanhan, Sichuan Province, overflowed, in which, tens of thousands of
people got evacuated. And on May 19, 2009, a well-blowout occurred in the No.
926 well in Xinchang gas field, Deyang Municipality, Sichuan Province, evacuating
thousands of people.
Toxic gas leakage refers to all kinds of inflammable, explosive and toxic liquid or
gas leaks or blow off due to human factors, equipment factors, improper production
management or environment factors, during the process of production, transportation,
storage, and usage. In the accident, a large quantity of highly toxic gas might be
released to the sky, form into toxic gas cloud, and then spread. If not evacuate
immediately or take effective preventive measures, the risk of getting poisoned, or
even causing death would occur, especially in those gas leakage accidents with large
influencing areas, featuring in a low occurrence rate, insufficient precursors, huge
complexity, which might cause potential secondary harms and serious damages and it
Mileti and Sorensen believe that a warning system is a means of gathering informa-
tion about an impending emergency, communicating the information to those who
need it, and facilitating good decisions and timely responses by people in danger.
With the development in observation, science and technology, mathematical mod-
eling and computer capacity, the accuracy of observation of the institutions, such
as meteorological department, has been largely improved and able to produce and
disseminate more accurate and timely warnings [1].
Maskrey provided another definition of the warning system. He believed that it
is an information system, designed to facilitate decision-making, in the context of
national disaster management agencies, in a way that empowers vulnerable sectors
and social groups to mitigate the potential losses and damages from impending hazard
events [2].
Reid Basher provided his definition: to send early warnings is to provide people
with a message to advance the movement in order to reduce the risks. The early
warning system serves as a system to forecast and signal disturbances that have
negative effects, caused by physical geographical or biological hazards, complex
social and political events, industrious hazards, individual health risks and other
reasons, in order to gain more time and minimize the side effects [3].
ISDR [4] offered the definition of early warning system in its UNISDR Termi-
nology on Disaster Risk Reduction: “The set of capacities needed to generate and
disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, com-
munities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately
and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.”
4 1 Introduction
Currently in China, there is no special statistical database for toxic leakage incidents,
and the author can only find related cases through retrieving statistical database of
accident investigation, searching through regional newspapers, references and case
compilation, and surfing through local governments’ web page, central government’s
and social websites. Through this process, the chosen toxic gas leakage incidences
follow the requirements listed below:
(1) The chosen evacuations are all related to leakage, fire, and explosion caused
by hazardous chemicals, and those caused by natural disasters, social security
issues, and others are not included in this book;
(2) In these evacuations, the number of evacuees were all above 1000 or involved
over 300 households, evacuating people inside at least two individual buildings.
In data collecting and filtering, the author paid more attention on the date and the
time when the incidents happened, accident sites, the names of hazardous chemicals
or gases, number of evacuees, evacuation radius or evacuation range, number of
fatalities, injuries and people who were poisoned, whether there were evacuees from
nearby hospitals, schools, prisons, government organizations or welfare houses, the
types of accident (happened on infrastructure, transportation line or in gas pipeline),
storage modes of hazards, and the detailed information of how the accident happened.
In case retrieving, the emergency gas leakages can be grouped into three categories
according to the places where they occurred, namely, on the infrastructure, during
transportation, and in pipelines. The communities where the accident happened can
be in urban, suburban and rural areas; and the storage types of hazardous chemicals
often contain through gas cylinders, storage tanks, tankers, processing installations,
pipelines, warehouses, gas wells, and others. Meanwhile, for convenient statistical
analysis, the toxic gases can be grouped into eight different categories, including
urban gas, oil, and natural gases (unpurified), ammonia (in liquid or gas form),
6 1 Introduction
chlorine (liquid or gas form), Benzene (benzene, toluene and xylene), fuel (gasoline,
diesel oil), acid (vitriol, hydrochloric acid, hydrogen nitrate) and others.
In the end, this project has collected 173 cases of toxic gas leakages, ranging from
January 1st to June 1, 2007, and all of them have caused an evacuation of more than
1000 people, including 157 cases from January, 2004 to May, 2007. Before 2004,
major accidents seldom occurred. Through case retrieval, experience summarizing
or case analyzing, the evacuation information of the affected personnel has been
gathered. More cases for evacuation came from Guangzhou, Jiangsu and Chongqing,
with 38 cases, 19 cases and 13 cases of evacuation respectively.
There has been no established system of information notification and statistics related
to evacuations for hazardous chemical leakages, and the information is from various
sources. Related information of some cases is incomplete, thus a few cases are not
collected due to their insufficiency in evacuation information. Also, analyses on the
following specific conditions are only qualitative analyses, which contain the scale
of evacuation, hazardous chemicals, the range of evacuation, the time for evacuation
and the process of evacuation, since comprehensive quantitative analyses often need
more detailed data investigation.
(1) Scale of evacuation
Based on evacuation scale, among the 173 cases, there were 102 cases of evac-
uation with their number of evacuees below 3000, accounting for 59%; 44 cases
with the evacuee number ranging between 3000 and 10,000 people, accounting for
25.4%; 27 cases with their evacuee number exceeding 10,000 people, accounting
for 15.6%; 4 cases with the evacuee number climbing up to 50,000, accounting for
2.3%. Among all, the case with the largest evacuation population fell on Septem-
ber 28th, 1993, a blowout occurred from the Zhao 48 well, about 700 m north of
Ningcheng Village, Gezi Town, Zhangxian County, Shijiazhuang City. The hazards
mainly included hydrogen sulfide from the oil and gas (unpurified), causing 226,000
people to evacuate.
(2) Hazards
According to the types of hazards, there were 53 cases, in which, urban gas was
the major toxic substance, accounting for 30.6%; followed by ammonia (liquid or
gas form) and chlorine (liquid and gas form), causing 18 cases of evacuation with
affected number exceeding 1000, accounting for 10.4%; only nine cases were caused
by the leakage of oil and natural gas (unpurified), but among the cases, 6 of them
caused an evacuation of more than 10,000 people, accounting for 22.2% of all the
evacuations of over 10,000 people.
1.3 Leakage Accidents and Regional Evacuation in China 7
According to the evacuation radius, among the 173 cases collected by the author, 92
cases lacked the information of evacuation range, accounting for 53.2%. And among
the other 81 cases, there were 42 evacuations with a radius of 500 m around the
accident sites, making up for 51.9%; 15 cases had a radius of more than 2000 m,
accounting for 18.5%. Among all these 173 cases, the evacuation range for the
blowout from the Zhao 48 well came the largest, with a radius around 8000–10,000 m,
followed by blowout of the 16H well in Luojia, northeastern gas mine, Kaixian,
Chongqing Municipality, with an evacuation radius of 5000 m. Table 1.1 shows the
relationship between the storage types and the evacuation ranges. Among the 15 cases
with an evacuation radius over 2000 m, the storage types of hazardous chemicals
mainly include via tankers, in processing equipment, storage tank, and from sour gas
well.
Among these 173 cases of evacuation, 17 of them can calculate the time period
between the point accident occurred and the time the evacuation completed, based
on the existing materials, of which, nine cases completed the evacuation in 1 h, 5
finished in 1–3 h, and five cases took over 3 h. Evacuations for the blowout accidents
of the Zhao 48 well and the 16H well in Luojia, as well as the “3.29” accident on the
Huai’an section, Beijing-Shanghai expressway took over 6 h to finish, and resulted in
series consequences, with six fatalities, 241 fatalities and 29 fatalities respectively,
as well as 464, 2142, 333 people got poisoned and sent to the hospital in each
accident. Table 1.2 shows a comparison between the time statistic of evacuations
both in this research and from the data of technical disasters conducted by the Sandia
National Laboratory. Clearly, the emergency responses of Americans are much faster
compared with their Chinese counterparts.
Table 1.1 The storage types of hazards and the evacuation ranges
Evacuation radius (m)
<500 500–2000 2000–3000 >3000
Frequency Ratio % Frequency Ratio % Frequency Ratio % Frequency Ratio%
Storage type Gas cylinders 9 21.4
Storage tanks 6 14.3 2 8.3 1 8.3
Tankers 12 28.6 8 33.3 7 58.3
Process 3 7.1 2 8.3 3 25.0 1 33.3
equipment
Pipelines 7 16.7 6 25.0
Warehouses 3 7.1 2 8.3
Gas wells 2 8.3 2 66.7
Others 2 4.8 2 8.3 1 8.3
1 Introduction
1.4 Public Protection Methods 9
Table 1.2 The comparison between evacuation reaction speeds of Chinese and American people
Time of evacuation (min)
Maximum Mean Median Minimum
The data in this research 605 183 140 10
Technical disasters data from the 480 125 90 20
Sandia National Laboratory
Faced with the harm from toxic gas clouds, decision-makers can choose from multiple
public protection methods, including taking evacuation, providing shelters temporar-
ily, and wearing protective devices. However, if the time permits, decision-makers
should consider to take emergence evacuation to move the affected public from the
dangerous zone or potential harmful area to safe locations [7–9].
In most European countries, people usually take shelter-in-place in major leakage
incidents. When the public get the warnings, they quickly get inside of the buildings,
lock all the doors and windows, block all the ventilation equipment, and set the
radio to a fixed frequency, waiting for further rescue. In most states of America, the
local authorities always direct the public to evacuate from dangerous places to safe
regions [10]. Whether to choose shelter-in-place or to take emergency evacuation,
multiple factors should be analyzed before a comprehensive judgment is made. In
this paper, the influence factors that affect the decision of choosing shelter-in-place or
emergency evacuation will be analyzed with examples, and in the end, the influence
factors will be put in a list and a detailed analysis in a decision tree shall be carried
out [11].
In emergency evacuation for accidents, the evacuations can be categorized into “pre-
cautionary evacuation” or “responsive evacuation” based on the time the danger-
ous event approaches [12]. If the danger can be sensed, and the accident happens
before the evacuation decision is made, the action should be taken as “precautionary
evacuation”, otherwise, the evacuation action belongs to “responsive evacuation”.
According to the organization and implementation of evacuation action, the process
can be divided into four stages [13–15], namely, the period of monitoring, predicting
and decision-making, the period of evacuation notification, the period of evacuation
responses, and the time for evacuation actions. Decision-makers in the four stages
are generally not the same. In the first two stages, the decision-makers are often
on-site emergency commanders, and in the last two stages, the decision-makers are
often personnel that should be evacuated.
10 1 Introduction
decision-making process can be divided into three stages [17]. When the public
receive the evacuation warning, they will try to gather more related information
through listening, watching and smelling to confirm whether the information is valid
and to form general knowledge of the accident and evacuation notice, and finally,
based on individual knowledge and other factors, they will decide whether to take
evacuation action or other methods to save themselves.
The public evacuation reaction can be influenced by many factors, including
the types of evacuation and communication modes. The evacuation notices can be
grouped into two kinds, voluntary evacuation and compulsory evacuation. In vol-
untary evacuation, officials issue the warning to leave it to the residents whether to
evacuate or not, based on their situations; in compulsory evacuation, the residents
have to evacuate immediately, and these notices are better at urging people to take
actions [18]. Based on the terrible harm caused by toxic gas leakage, decision-makers
from related departments of government in China usually enforce compulsory evac-
uation. The effectiveness of public evacuation is related to the dissemination of the
direction, as well as its transparency, the consistency of different instructions, the
frequency of issuing the directions, and the accuracy of past instructions [19].
The detailed evacuation action of the public is closely related to individual risk
awareness. Most residents will probably not feel panic when they receive the evac-
uation notice, and in fact, their response behavior is quite reasonable. According to
the research conducted by Gwynne and his team, only about 5% of residents may
react abnormally [20]. From evacuations caused by hazardous chemical accidents in
foreign countries, clearly not all the residents will evacuate immediately once they
get the evacuation reaction. The reasons include the disbelief towards the direction,
blind confident of the accident will not affect themselves, and other reasons related to
family issues (for example, worrying about the elders, patients, disabled, or pregnant)
and worrying about the properties safety, and others [12, 16].
The response time of the public determines the period of emergency response. In
1990, the fire in Ephrata paint warehouse in Pennsylvania, America, has caused an
evacuation. It took those who evacuated accordingly with the evacuation notice 1 h to
react. In 1987, the derailment of a tanker on Pittsburgh railway caused the leakage of
phosphorus oxychloride, in which the average reaction time was 1 h, and the longest
lasted for 6 h. In “4.15” chlorine leakage of Chongqing Tianyuan Chemical Industry
Plant, 86.9% of the residents evacuated within 1 h.
(4) The period of evacuation action
The period of evacuation action refers to the time between the residents start their
action and get evacuated to the safe places, during which period, residents travel
through different ways, including walking, by automobile or bicycle, to move from
dangerous zone to safe places. The evacuation reaction time is influenced by the
following factors from four aspects: the characteristics of the emergency, including
properties, scale, the speed of evolvement, location, and the duration of the potential
accident; the influencing regional characteristics, including the size of the region,
road network and escape route, shelters, and the distance from the spot to safe places;
demographic characteristics, including population, age and the distribution of people,
12 1 Introduction
In toxic gas leakage, time is the decisive factor for decision-makers in selecting public
preventive measures. On the one hand, it takes time to predict the amount of toxic
gas and the range of diffusion, to choose the suitable public preventive methods, to
notify relevant local government and personnel, and to issue evacuation notice to the
public, as well as the time for the public to take effective evacuation actions; on the
other hand, the diffusion of toxic gas cloud also needs time. Considering that the
diffusion of the toxic gas cloud and personnel evacuation happen irreversible with
the time, the basic requirement is to evacuate the affected residents to safe places
before the toxic gas endangers them. The criterion to judge whether evacuation is
applicable or not should be that the required evacuation time is less than the available
evacuation time, and its mathematic description shall be
Available evacuation time denotes the period between the leakage signs are detected
or the accident occurs to the point that the toxic gas starts to diffuse and endangers
the safety and health of the residents. This period of time mainly consists of two
parts, the time for toxic gas to diffuse from the sources of leakage to the evacuation
location, and the time personnel in evacuation could stand the toxic gas without being
harmed, which can be shown in
in which: tl denotes the time for toxic gas to diffuse to the location of people who
should be evacuated (s);
ttl denotes the time for people who should be evacuated to be exposed to the toxic
gas without being harmed (s).
tl is closely related to the characteristics of the leakage source and the meteoro-
logical conditions of the location where the leakage occurs, these include the time
the accident happens, the density of the toxic gas, the distance between the leak-
age source and evacuation locations, atmospheric stability, wind direction and wind
speed, and all these factors will determine the areas the toxic cloud covers and the
duration of the pollution influencing the area. ttl is related to the toxicities of gas
produced by the leakage. The calculation of tl and ttl requires people to understand
the amount and the speed of leaked substance, and to obtain the variation of the con-
centration field of toxic substances with changes in time. The process of the spread of
toxic gas and concentration analysis can be obtained through the calculation through
various leakage diffusion models.
The available evacuation time must be longer than the necessary evacuation time,
which serves as a general criterion for judging the applicability of evacuation actions
in all kinds of disasters. For regional evacuation for toxic gas leakage, it is necessary
to distinguish between preventive evacuation and responsive evacuation in available
evacuation time analysis.
In preventive evacuation, if the toxic gas leakage has not happened, but there is
still possibility of leakage the evacuation action is preventive, during which, due to
multiple uncertain factors, it is difficult to predict or calculate the time the toxic gas
spreading to the locations of evacuees and the duration of people exposed to the toxic
gases without being harmed. In regional evacuation analysis, for convenience, it is
possible to set the evacuation time in advance. For example, the available evacuation
time can be set to 30, 60, or 120 min respectively.
Responsive evacuation takes place when the toxic leakage has already taken place,
and the evacuation action is a responsive action of the decision-maker to protect the
public or a spontaneous action of the surrounding residents. The time for toxic gases
to spread to the location of the evacuees is related to several factors, including the
characteristics of the toxic substances, the meteorological condition and environ-
ment conditions, and can be obtained through proper diffusion simulation method.
However, the duration of evacuees exposing to the toxic gas without being harmed
can be related to multiple factors, including the influence of evacuees’ continuous
motion state on their locations and the dosage of the toxic gases. In regional evac-
uation analysis, it is possible to estimate the evacuation time, which is equal to the
time of toxic gas spreading to the location of evacuees and threatening the life and
health of residents plus 30 min’ exposure time, which is
in which: ttl,start point denotes the time of toxic gas spreading to the position where
people start the evacuation.
14 1 Introduction
The starting position of evacuation operations generally refer to all kinds of build-
ing, such as residential areas, workplaces, shopping malls and places of entertain-
ment, etc., roads, parks and other urban public utilities also included.
Required evacuation time tret refers to the period of time for evacuees to move to
safety areas. The required evacuation time consists mainly of five parts
top refers to the necessary time for detecting the precursors of the disaster. It
is generally believed that capacity of forecasting the disasters depend on the types
of disasters and the capacity of the early warning system to anticipate and deliver
warnings. For some disaster, including explosions, it is hard for early-warning system
to function, because the duration between the point precursors show to the time
accident happens is too short [13].
tde refers to the time for emergency decision-makers to choose the evacuation
methods to reduce or prevent injuries or casualties. The time will be affected by the
characteristics of the disaster, the experiences and ability of the decision-maker, the
response capacity of the emergency unit, and others. If the time for decision-making
is short, evacuees can have more time to evacuate.
twa refers to the time for evacuation notices or directions to reach the evacuees. It
will be influenced by the local emergency preparation level, communication mode,
notification mode, evacuees’ understanding for evacuation notice and evacuation
experiences [21].
tre refers to the time for evacuees to start evacuation after they receive the instruc-
tions, also the time they need to receive and understand the notice, believe it is valid,
make decision to evacuate, start their preparation, and start their evacuation.
tev refers to the time for evacuees to evacuate to safe places, generally related to
the network and environmental factors of within the dangerous zone, condition of
the evacuation, and the intrinsic property and behavior of evacuees. Also, it can be
influenced by the meteorological conditions, time of the day, the date and the season
of the year.
In toxic gas leakage, as a component of the necessary evacuation time, the obser-
vation and early-warning time and the evacuation decision-making time are related
to the behavior of the emergency decision-maker. The notification time is related to
notification modes, and the response time and action time are related to the evacuation
behavior of the evacuees and the condition of road network. The time components
will be further analyzed in following chapters.
1.4 Public Protection Methods 15
The difference in determining the evacuation areas may affect the evacuation scale,
in another words, the evacuation population. Currently, there are various ways of
determining different evacuation areas for toxic gas leakage incidents.
Toxic gas leakage has different harms and actuation durations on the safety and
health of people from different locations. Those who live not far from the leak
source are likely to be exposed to toxic gas cloud of high concentration, and it takes
16 1 Introduction
Table 1.3 Early isolation distances and protective distances of several common hazardous
chemicals
ID The name Small spills/leakages Large spills/leakages
of the
hazard
Initial The protective Initial The protective
isolation distance in the isolation distance in the
distance downwind direction distance downwind direction
(m) (km) (m) (km)
Day time At night Day time At night
1005 Ammonia 30 0.2 0.2 60 0.5 1.1
1017 Chlorine 30 0.3 1.1 275 2.7 6.8
1023 Coal gas 30 0.2 0.2 60 0.3 0.5
1053 Hydrogen 30 0.2 0.3 215 1.4 4.3
sulfide
1076 Phosgene 95 0.8 2.7 765 6.6 11.0
1079 Sulfur 30 0.3 1.1 185 3.1 7.2
dioxide
Note Small spills/leakages refer to those with a leakage amount around 200 L or less; large
spills/leakages refer to those with a leakage of more than 200 L
time for toxic gas to reach those who live far, with a much lower concentration.
Therefore, the public protective methods for different locations should vary. Based
on this characteristic, some researchers put forward emergency and public protection
technology for emergency planning zone (EPZ).
Emergency planning zone for nuclear facilities refer to the area within which, to
take effective and timely actions to protect the public during emergencies, emergency
plans, and emergency preparation must be carried out around the facilities, and it
mainly includes plume emergency planning zone and feeding emergency planning
zone. Emergency planning zone does not have to be circular, and its shape can be
decided according to the characteristics of the nuclear facilities site and its surround-
ing administrative jurisdiction. Table 1.4 shows some emergency planning zones for
nuclear station formulated by some countries and regions, and ranges and scales for
taking various emergency actions, including evacuation [24, 25].
Chemical stockpile emergency preparedness program (CSEPP) by the American
government proposed an emergency planning area with three regions. The inner
circle is immediate response zone (IRZ), which refers to in typical meteorological
condition, the area with a response time less than 1 h; the middle circle is the protective
action zone, which refers to the area in which protective measures should be taken to
protect the public from the harm of toxic gas and provide enough time for people to
evacuate to safe places; the outer circle is prevention zone, which is the area outside
the protective action zone, the harm caused by toxic gas can be neglected and its
border does not need to be decided in advance. If time permits, all the people inside
the immediate response zone should be evacuated; for those within protective action
Table 1.4 The area of emergency plan area for nuclear power plants and the implementation of all emergency measures
Country or Emergency Evacuation Shelter-in- Iodine plates Calling the Ingestion Food control Monitoring Relocation
1.4 Public Protection Methods
zone, although some special groups of people or institutions can take shelter-in-place,
for the general public, it is better to take evacuation [8].
When emergency happens, the protective action for the public can be limited to a
small part of emergency planning zone, meaning that there are differences between
emergency planning zone and actual response area. In evacuation analysis of the
radioactive material leakage in nuclear station, Tawil J.J., etc., believed that the
action evacuation range consists of two areas, one is a circular region, with a center
of the leakage source and a radius of 3.2 km, and the other a wedge, with its width
determined by its angle [26]. In his report, Tawil took into consideration the evacu-
ation range when the angle is 70°, 90°, and 180° respectively, which can be named
as keyhole areas.
Judging from the previous cases of evacuation for toxic gas leakages in China, the
emergency decision-makers usually choose to evacuate the people within a circular
area. In fact, choosing rectangle, circular or keyhole-shape evacuation areas can all
serve as methods to determining evacuation regions in regional evacuation analy-
sis. When determining the boundary of evacuation region, decision-makers must be
aware of the concentration that above which will endanger human life and health.
Among several methods to determine the critical concentration, “immediately dan-
gerous life and health” concentration (IDLH) proves to be the most effective one,
which mainly takes into consideration acute exposure data, and less about chronic
exposure data. According to the IDLH concentration, the boundary of evacuation
area can be set equal to the furthest possible radius of 1 time or twice the IDLH
concentration can affect.
In population scale estimation, the number of people inside the evacuation area should
be estimated. The permanent residents’ data should be the basis of evacuee number
estimation. There are multiple methods to estimate [27], which include
n
Np (Ai Di ) (1.7)
i1
Kuudes kirja
Venäläinen munkki
1.
— Mitä sinä nyt, älä vielä itke, — hymyili vanhus pannen oikean
kätensä hänen päänsä päälle, — näethän, että vielä istun ja
keskustelen, kenties elän vielä kaksikymmentä vuotta, niinkuin
minulle eilen toivoi tuo hyvä, herttainen nainen Vysegorjesta, jolla oli
tyttönen Lizaveta sylissä. Muista, Herra, sekä äitiä että Lizaveta-
tyttöstä (hän teki ristinmerkin). Porfiri, oletko vienyt hänen lahjansa
sinne, mihin minä sanoin?
Aljošasta oli omituista, että vanhus kysyi niin lujasti sekä ilmeisesti
tarkoittaen vain yhtä veljeä, — mutta kumpaa: siis juuri tuon veljen
takia hän kenties olikin sekä eilen että tänään lähettänyt hänet pois
luotaan.
— Älä utele. Minä huomasin eilen jotakin kauheata… oli kuin koko
hänen kohtalonsa olisi eilen näkynyt hänen katseestaan. Eräs hänen
silmäyksensä oli sellainen… niin että minä sillä hetkellä
sydämessäni kauhistuin sitä, mitä tämä mies valmistaa itselleen.
Kerran tai kahdesti elämässäni olen nähnyt joillakuilla samanlaisen
kasvojen ilmeen… joka ikäänkuin ilmaisi näitten ihmisten koko
kohtalon, ja voi! se kohtalo tuli heidän osakseen. Minä lähetin sinut,
Aleksei, hänen luokseen, sillä ajattelin, että veljellinen muotosi on
avuksi hänelle. Mutta kaikki on Jumalan kädessä ja samoin kaikki
meidän kohtalomme. »Ellei maahan pudonnut nisun jyvä kuole, niin
se jää yksinänsä; mutta jos se kuolee, niin se tuo paljon hedelmätä.»
Pane tämä mieleesi. Mutta sinua, Aleksei, minä olen ajatuksissani
monesti elämäni aikana siunannut kasvojesi tähden, tiedä se, —
lausui vanhus hiljaa hymyillen. — Ajattelen sinusta näin: sinä menet
pois näiden seinien sisältä, mutta maailmassa sinä tulet olemaan
niinkuin munkki. Sinulla tulee olemaan paljon vastustajia, mutta
vihollisesikin sinua rakastavat. Paljon onnettomuuksia tuopi sinulle
elämä, mutta ne juuri tekevät sinut onnelliseksikin, ja sinä siunaat
elämää ja saatat toisetkin siunaamaan, — mikä on tärkeintä
kaikesta. Niin, sellainen sinä olet. Isät ja opettajani, — kääntyi hän
lempeästi hymyillen vieraittensa puoleen, — en koskaan tähän
päivään saakka ole sanonut edes hänellekään, minkätähden tämän
nuorukaisen muoto on ollut minun sielulleni niin armas. Nyt vasta
sen sanon: hänen kasvonsa ovat olleet minulle kuin muistutus ja
profeetallinen ennustus. Elämäni aamunkoitossa, kun olin vielä pieni
lapsi, minulla oli vanhempi veli, joka kuoli nuorukaisena, vain
seitsemäntoista vuoden ikäisenä, minun nähteni. Myöhemmin
elämäni varrella tulin vähitellen vakuutetuksi siitä, että tämä veljeni
oli kohtalossani ikäänkuin ylhäältä annettuna tien viittaajana ja
ennakolta määrääjänä, sillä jos hän ei olisi esiintynyt elämässäni ja
jos häntä ei ollenkaan olisi ollut olemassa, niin minä kenties en
milloinkaan, niin ajattelen, olisi astunut munkin säätyyn enkä tälle
kallisarvoiselle tielle. Tuo ensimmäinen ilmestys oli jo lapsuudessani,
ja nyt, kun matkani on kallistumassa loppuun, se on ikäänkuin
toistunut silmieni edessä. Ihmeellistä on, isät ja opettajat, että vaikka
Aleksei ei ole kasvoiltaan kovin paljon hänen näköisensä, vaan
ainoastaan jonkin verran, niin hän on näyttänyt minusta siinä määrin
tuon toisen kaltaiselta henkisesti, että usein olen pitänyt häntä
ikäänkuin samana nuorukaisena, veljenäni, joka on tullut
salaperäisen matkani lopulla jonkinmoisena muistona elämän
syventämiseksi, niin että suorastaan olen ihmetellyt itseäni ja
tämmöistä omituista haaveiluani. Kuuletko tämän, Porfiri, — kääntyi
hän palvelijamunkkinsa puoleen. — Usein olen nähnyt kasvoillasi
jonkinmoista katkeruutta siitä, että rakastan Alekseita enemmän kuin
sinua. Nyt tiedät, miksi näin on ollut, mutta minä rakastan sinuakin,
tiedä se, ja monta kertaa olen surrut sitä, että sinä olet pahastunut.
Mutta teille, rakkaat vieraani, tahdon kertoa tuosta nuorukaisesta,
veljestäni, sillä ei ole ollut minun elämässäni mitään kalliimpaa ja
liikuttavampaa. Sydämeni on liikutettu, ja minä katson tällä hetkellä
koko elämääni aivan kuin eläisin sen kaiken taas uudestaan…
*****
2.
Elämäkerrallisia tietoja
Ja hän oli vielä paljon muutakin, mitä ei jaksa muistaa eikä kuvata.
Muistan, miten kerran menin hänen luokseen yksin, kun hänen
luonaan ei ollut ketään. Oli kirkas iltahetki, aurinko oli menossa
mailleen ja valaisi koko huoneen vinosti lankeavalla säteellä. Minut
nähtyään hän kutsui minua luokseen, minä astuin hänen luoksensa,
hän tarttui molemmin käsin olkapäihini, katseli kasvojani lempeästi ja
rakkaasti; ei sanonut minulle mitään, katseli vain tuolla tavoin noin
minuutin verran. »No», sanoo, »mene nyt, leiki, elä minun
puolestani!» Läksin silloin ulos ja menin leikkimään. Mutta elämäni
aikana olen sitten monesti muistellut kyynelsilmin, kuinka hän käski
minun elää hänen asemestaan. Hän puhui vielä paljon tuollaisia
ihmeellisiä ja ihania, vaikka meille silloin käsittämättömiä sanoja.
Hän kuoli kolmannella viikolla pääsiäisen jälkeen täydessä
tajussaan, ja vaikka hän jo oli lakannut puhumasta, niin hän pysyi
samanlaisena viimeiseen hetkeensä asti: katselee riemuissaan,
iloisin silmin, etsii meitä katseillaan, hymyilee meille, kutsuu meitä.
Kaupungillakin puhuttiin paljon hänen kuolemastaan. Tämä kaikki
järkytti minua silloin, mutta ei kuitenkaan kovin suuresti, vaikka minä
itkinkin paljon, kun hänet haudattiin. Olin nuori, lapsi vain, mutta
sydämeen jäi kaikki lähtemättömästi, tunne jäi piilossa elämään.
Aikanaan oli kaiken määrä herätä ja antaa vastakaiku. Niin kävikin.