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Evolving Complexity and
Environmental Risk in
the Prehistoric Southwest
EVOLVING COMPLEXITY
AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK
IN THE PREHISTORIC
SOUTHWEST
Proceedings of the Workshop
"Resource Stress, Economic Uncertainty, and
Human Response in the Prehistoric Southwest,"
Held February 25-29, 1992 in Santa Fe, NM
Editors
Joseph A. Tainter
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service
Santa Fe Institute
Studies in the Sciences of Complexity
CRC Press is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
Except as permitted under U.S. Copyright Law, no part of this book may be reprinted,
reproduced, transmitted, or utilized i n any form by any electronic, mechanical, or other
means, now k n o w n or hereafter invented, including photocopying, microfilming, and
recording, or i n any information storage or retrieval system, w i t h o u t w r i t t e n
permission from the publishers.
Prof. K e n n e t h J. A r r o w
D e p a r t m e n t o f Economics, Stanford U n i v e r s i t y
Prof. W . B r i a n A r t h u r
C i t i b a n k Professor, Santa Fe I n s t i t u t e
Prof. M i c h e l e B o l d r i n
M E D S , Northwestern University
D r . George A . C o w a n
V i s i t i n g Scientist, Santa Fe I n s t i t u t e a n d Senior Fellow E m e r i t u s , Los A l a m o s
National Laboratory
Prof. M a r c u s W . F e l d m a n
D i r e c t o r , I n s t i t u t e for P o p u l a t i o n & Resource Studies, Stanford U n i v e r s i t y
Prof. M u r r a y G e l l - M a n n
Prof. J o h n H . H o l l a n d
D i v i s i o n o f C o m p u t e r Science & Engineering, U n i v e r s i t y of M i c h i g a n
Prof. S t u a r t A . K a u f f m a n
School o f M e d i c i n e , U n i v e r s i t y o f Pennsylvania
Dr. Edward A. Knapp
President, Santa Fe I n s t i t u t e
Prof. H a r o l d M o r o w i t z
R o b i n s o n Professor, George M a s o n U n i v e r s i t y
D r . A l a n S. Perelson
T h e o r e t i c a l D i v i s i o n , Los A l a m o s N a t i o n a l L a b o r a t o r y
Prof. D a v i d Pines
Department o f Physics, U n i v e r s i t y o f Illinois
Prof. H a r r y L . Swinney
Department o f Physics, U n i v e r s i t y o f Texas
Santa Fe Institute
Studies in the Sciences of Complexity
Proceedings Volumes
Vol. Editor Title
I D. Pines Emerging Syntheses i n Science, 1987
II A. S. Perelson Theoretical Immunology, Part One, 1988
III A. S. Perelson Theoretical Immunology, Part Two, 1988
IV G. D . Doolen et al. Lattice Gas Methods for Partial Differential
Equations, 1989
V P. W . Anderson, K . Arrow, The Economy as an Evolving Complex System,
D. Pines 1988
VI C. G. Langton Artificial Life: Proceedings of an Interdisciplinary
Workshop on the Synthesis and Simulation
of Living Systems, 1988
VII G. I . Bell & T . G. M a r r Computers and D N A , 1989
VIII W . H . Zurek Complexity, Entropy, and the Physics of
Information, 1990
IX A. S. Perelson Sz Molecular Evolution on Rugged Landscapes:
S. A . Kauffman Proteins, R N A and the Immune System, 1990
X C. G. Langton et al. Artificial Life I I , 1991
XI J. A . Hawkins & The Evolution of Human Languages, 1992
M . Gell-Mann
XII M . Casdagli & S. Eubank Nonlinear Modeling and Forecasting, 1992
XIII J. E. M i t t e n t h a l & Principles of Organization i n Organisms, 1992
A. B . Baskin
XIV D. Friedman & J. Rust The Double Auction Market: Institutions,
Theories, and Evidence, 1993
XV A. S. Weigend & Time Series Prediction: Forecasting the Future
N . A . Gershenfeld and Understanding the Past
XVI G. Gumerman & Understanding Complexity i n the
M . Gell-Mann Prehistoric Southwest
XVII C. G. Langton Artificial Life I I I
XVIII G. Kramer Auditory Display
XIX G. Cowan, D . Pines, Complexity: Metaphors, Models, and Reality
and D . Meltzer
XX D. H . Wolpert The Mathematics of Generalization
XXI P. E. Cladis & Spatio-Temporal Patterns i n Nonequilibrium
P. Palffy-Muhoray Complex Systems
XXII H . Morowitz & & The M i n d , The Brain, and Complex
J. L . Singer Adaptive Systems
XXIII B . Julesz & Maturational Windows and A d u l t Cortical
I . Kovacs Plasticity
XXIV J. A . Tainter & Evolving Complexity and Environmental
B. B . Tainter Risk i n the Prehistoric Southwest
XXV J. B . Rundle, W . Klein & Reduction and Predicability of Natural
D. L . Turcotte Disasters
XXVI R. K . Belew & A d a p t i v e I n d i v i d u a l s i n E v o l v i n g Populations:
M . Mitchell Models and Algorithms
Lectures Volumes
Vol. Editor Title
I D . L . Stein Lectures i n the Sciences of Complexity, 1989
II E. Jen 1989 Lectures i n Complex Systems, 1990
III L . Nadel & D . L . Stein 1990 Lectures i n Complex Systems, 1991
IV L . Nadel & D . L . Stein 1991 Lectures in Complex Systems, 1992
V L . Nadel & D . L . Stein 1992 Lectures i n Complex Systems, 1993
VI L . Nadel & D . L . Stein 1993 Lectures i n Complex Systems, 1995
Reference Volumes
Vol. Author Title
I A . Wuensche & M . Lesser The Global Dynamics of Cellular Automata:
Attraction Fields of One-Dimensional Cellular
Automata, 1992
Contributors to This Volume
Eric A . Angstadt-Leto,
A r i z o n a State U n i v e r s i t y
Linda Cordell,
U n i v e r s i t y M u s e u m , U n i v e r s i t y o f Colorado
Jeffrey S. Dean,
L a b o r a t o r y o f Tree-Ring Research, U n i v e r s i t y o f A r i z o n a
Michelle Hegmon,
N e w M e x i c o State U n i v e r s i t y
T i m o t h y A . Kohler,
W a s h i n g t o n State University, P u l l m a n and the Santa Fe
Institute
Paul E. Minnis,
University of Oklahoma
M a r g a r e t C. Nelson,
State U n i v e r s i t y o f N e w Y o r k , Buffalo
Alison E. Rautman,
M i c h i g a n State U n i v e r s i t y
K a t h e r i n e A . Spielmann,
A r i z o n a State U n i v e r s i t y
A l a n P. S u l l i v a n I I I ,
University of Cincinnati
Joseph A . T a i n t e r ,
U.S. D e p a r t m e n t o f A g r i c u l t u r e , Forest Service
C a r l a R. V a n West,
C r o w C a n y o n Archaeological Center, Cortez, and
S t a t i s t i c a l Research, Inc.
For Elizabeth and George Tainter,
and i n memory of Willis H . Bagley
Contents
Index 267
Joseph A. Tainter
USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Albuquerque,
NM87106W
^ T h e preparation of this chapter was funded by the U S D A Forest Service, Rocky Mountain
Forest and Range Experiment Station. For comments on previous versions I am grateful to L i n d a
Cordell, George Gumerman, David Kelley, Jane Kelley, Timothy Kohler, Richard Periman, Carol
Raish, and Bonnie Bagley Tainter.
f ^I am grateful for this anecdote to my colleague Randall McGuire, who related it in a plenary
2
address to the 23rd Annual Chacmool Conference at the University of Calgary, November, 1993.
T h e theme of the conference was "Debating Complexity."
^ T h e workshop was funded by the U S D A Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range
Experiment Station. Dr. George Peterson arranged the contractual matters for Rocky Moun-
tain Station. T h e workshop participants included Linda Cordell, Pamela Bumstead, Jeffrey Dean,
Marcus Feldman, Murray Gell-Mann, George Gumerman, Michelle Hegmon, Stuart Kauffman,
Timothy Kohler, Robert Leonard, Paul Minnis, Margaret Nelson, Robert Preucel, Alison Raut-
man, Katherine Spielmann, Alan Sullivan I I I , Christine Szuter, Wolfgang Fikentscher, and Joseph
Tainter. Andi Sutherland and Patrisia Brunello made our visit to S F I a most enjoyable experience.
O n behalf of all the authors, I am pleased to express appreciation to Ronda Butler-Villa and Delia
Ulibarri for their fine work in preparing the book for publication.
l J Murray Gell-Mann's lifelong interest in archaeology, documented in his recent book (1994), has
4
shaped the interest of the Santa Fe Institute and its affiliated scientists in Southwestern societies
as complex adaptive systems. T h e two workshops on Southwestern prehistory held at S F I were
made possible through his interest.
Introduction 3
i n u n d e r s t a n d i n g c u l t u r a l c o m p l e x i t y . ^ C u l t u r a l c o m p l e x i t y is different i n some
respects f r o m c o m p l e x i t y i n other l i v i n g systems, and is perhaps more enigmatic.
T h e final section describes how t h e adaptations t o risk and stress described i n the
various chapters p r o v i d e an extensive glimpse i n t o some of t h e ways t h a t societies
p r a c t i c i n g subsistence economies change i n complexity.
CULTURAL COMPLEXITY
COMPLEXITY AS TEXT
As every serious student of t h e t o p i c knows, c o m p l e x i t y can be q u i t e difficult t o
define. W h i l e t h i s is a disconcerting state of affairs for the t e r m t h a t identifies an
entire field o f learning, i t is n o t unusual. F u n d a m e n t a l terms t h r o u g h o u t science,
such as species, evolution, culture, or collapse, have proved equally elusive. I n t h e
face o f t h i s p r o b l e m i t is t e m p t i n g at times t o adopt a Supreme C o u r t t y p e of
concept: we m a y n o t be able t o define complexity, b u t we k n o w i t w h e n we see
i t J ) O r at least we t h i n k we do. Recently I suggested a know-it-when-you-see-it
7
^ T h e perspective offered here is that of an anthropologist concerned with the evolution of cultural
complexity, and considering that evolution partly in an economic framework. Recognizing the
advantages of a plurality of views, inherent in S F I ' s philosophy, I offer this perspective to augment
the current discussion, not to displace any part of it.
^ 1 am paraphrasing the pronouncement of a learned justice of the court in a 1970s case which
concerned, in part, attempts to define pornography.
t l T h e paper by Timothy Kohler and C a r l a Van West in this volume is an effort that grew out of
8
this research.
Introduction 5
FIGURE 1 The Simple and the Complex: Dominguez Ruin and the Anasazi Heritage
Center. Dominguez Ruin is in the left foreground. Photograph by J. Fleetman, courtesy
of Victoria Atkins and the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management
and Bureau of Reclamation.
t l Salient archaeological sites are those that display the strongest patterning and that stand out
9
most clearly from background noise (Tainter and Plog 1994). T h e most salient archaeological
sites in the Southwestern United States are pueblos, and in the Midwest, burial, ceremonial, and
residential mounds.
8 J. A. Tainter
t l Requirements for high quality energy may increase as well. For the concept of energy quality
12
(the ability of different kinds of energy to support useful work), see Hall, Cleveland, and Kaufmann
(1992:55-56).
10 J. A. Tainter
Cl C2 C3
Level of Complexity
t l Unfortunately I was not able to talk to Malian women about these matters. Not as many of
13
them speak French as do men, and attempts to approach them would have been misunderstood.
It is interesting, however, that during my first visit (October-November 1992) our translator
published the first Western-style "women's magazine" to appear in Mali. Both the publishing and
the reading of such a magazine signify "modernity," yet acquiring literacy and the money to buy
such a magazine adds complexity to people's lives.
Introduction 15
t l l t did so in prehistory as well. Alden Hays (1981) has suggested that contacts with Mesoamer-
14
Six short nerves, three on each side of the median line, run forward
from the ring, a pair of these ending in each of the three papillae
which surround the mouth.
Behind, the nerve-ring gives off six main nerve trunks, of which the
dorsal and ventral nerves are usually the largest. These run in the
median dorsal and ventral thickenings of the sub-cuticular tissue,
and are connected one with another by numerous fine lateral
branches running through the sub-cuticle.
Fig. 63.—Diagram of the nervous system at the two ends of the body in
Ascaris megalocephala Cloq., ♂ . (After Hesse.) a,
Circumoesophageal nerve-ring; b, opening of excretory ducts; c,
dorsal nerve; d, dorso-lateral nerve; e, ventro-lateral nerve
becoming the bursal nerve posteriorly; f, the ventral nerve; g,
cloacal opening; h, sub-cuticular nerves running from c to f; k,
spicules.
The lateral nerves, which consist of two or four bundles, one or two
lying dorsal and one or two ventral to each excretory canal, have a
double origin. The dorsal branches arise directly from the nerve-ring,
and at their point of origin there is a considerable accumulation of
ganglion cells, from which two commissures on each side run into
the ventral nerve (Fig. 63, f). The ventral branches arise from the
ventral nerve-cord immediately in front of the excretory pore. At the
posterior end the lateral nerves pass into the two branches into
which the ventral nerve divides. Just before the point where the
ventral nerve splits it swells out into an anal ganglion situated just in
front of the anus. In the male[158] this anal ganglion gives off two
lateral nerves which pass round the cloaca and form a ring, and in
this sex the ventro-lateral nerve, which is much strengthened by
fibres from the ventral nerve, and has received, owing to the
mistaken impression that it was a special nervus recurrens, the
name of the "bursal nerve," gives off numerous branches to the
sense papillae which are found in this region of the body and on the
tail. The arrangement of these parts is shown in Fig. 63.
The medullary portion of the cell varies greatly in size; it may stretch
far into the body-cavity, which may be thereby almost occluded, or it
may be flattened out, leaving a large space around the alimentary
canal. At one point, usually about its middle, it is produced into a
process, which bends inwards towards the dorsal or ventral nerve-
cord, and by means of this process the muscle receives its nerve
supply.
The rectum is usually short; its cuticular lining, like that of the
oesophagus, is cast at intervals. At its anterior end there is usually a
sphincter muscle, and its walls are divaricated by muscular strands
which run from it to the body-wall. The anus is a transverse slit,
which in the male Strongylidae is surrounded by a funnel-shaped
membrane.
Fig. 66.—Ascaris lumbricoides Cloq. ♂, natural size, cut open along the
dorsal middle line. a, Oesophagus; b, intestine; c, testis; d, vas
deferens; h, lateral excretory canals.
Oxysoma is another small genus with but three species, found in the
intestines of opossums, frogs, and turtles respectively.