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Business Analytics
Third Edition
Jeffrey D. Camm James J. Cochran

Wake Forest University University of Alabama
Michael J. Fry Jeffrey W. Ohlmann

University of Cincinnati University of Iowa
David R. Anderson Dennis J. Sweeney Thomas A. Williams

University of Cincinnati University of Cincinnati Rochester Institute
of Technology
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Print Number: 01 Print Year: 2018
Brief Contents
ABOUT THE AUTHORS XIX
PREFACE XXIII
CHAPTER 1 Introduction 2
CHAPTER 2 Descriptive Statistics 18
CHAPTER 3 Data Visualization 82
CHAPTER 4 Descriptive Data Mining 138
CHAPTER 5 Probability: An Introduction to Modeling Uncertainty 166
CHAPTER 6 Statistical Inference 220
CHAPTER 7 Linear Regression 294
CHAPTER 8 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting 372
CHAPTER 9 Predictive Data Mining 422
CHAPTER 10 Spreadsheet Models 464
CHAPTER 11 Monte Carlo Simulation 500
CHAPTER 12 Linear Optimization Models 556
CHAPTER 13 Integer Linear Optimization Models 606
CHAPTER 14 Nonlinear Optimization Models 646
CHAPTER 15 Decision Analysis 678
APPENDIX A Basics of Excel 724
APPENDIX B Database Basics with Microsoft Access 736
APPENDIX C Solutions to Even-Numbered Questions (MindTap Reader)
REFERENCES 774
INDEX 776
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Contents
Contents
ABOUT THE AUTHORS XIX
PREFACE XXIII
CHAPTER 1 Introduction 2
1.1 Decision Making 4
1.2 Business Analytics Defined 5
1.3 A Categorization of Analytical Methods and Models 6
Descriptive Analytics 6
Predictive Analytics 6
Prescriptive Analytics 7
1.4 Big Data 7
Volume 9
Velocity 9
Variety 9
Veracity 9
1.5 Business Analytics in Practice 11
Financial Analytics 11
Human Resource (HR) Analytics 12
Marketing Analytics 12
Health Care Analytics 12
Supply-Chain Analytics 13
Analytics for Government and Nonprofits 13
Sports Analytics 13
Web Analytics 14
Summary 14
Glossary 15
CHAPTER 2 Descriptive Statistics 18

Analytics in Action: U.S. Census Bureau 19
2.1 Overview of Using Data: Definitions and Goals 19
2.2 Types of Data 21
Population and Sample Data 21
Quantitative and Categorical Data 21
Cross-Sectional and Time Series Data 21
Sources of Data 21
2.3 Modifying Data in Excel 24
Sorting and Filtering Data in Excel 24
Conditional Formatting of Data in Excel 27
2.4 Creating Distributions from Data 29
Frequency Distributions for Categorical Data 29
Relative Frequency and Percent Frequency Distributions 30
Frequency Distributions for Quantitative Data 31
Histograms 34
Cumulative Distributions 37
viii Contents
2.5 Measures of Location 39
Mean (Arithmetic Mean) 39
Median 40
Mode 41
Geometric Mean 41
2.6 Measures of Variability 44
Range 44
Variance 45
Standard Deviation 46
Coefficient of Variation 47
2.7 Analyzing Distributions 47
Percentiles 48
Quartiles 49
z-Scores 49
Empirical Rule 50
Identifying Outliers 52
Box Plots 52
2.8 Measures of Association Between Two Variables 55
Scatter Charts 55
Covariance 57
Correlation Coefficient 60
2.9 Data Cleansing 61
Missing Data 61
Blakely Tires 63
Identification of Erroneous Outliers and Other Erroneous
Values 65
Variable Representation 67
Summary 68
Glossary 69
Problems 71
Case Problem: Heavenly Chocolates Web Site Transactions 79
Appendix 2.1 Creating Box Plots with Analytic Solver (MindTap Reader)
CHAPTER 3 Data Visualization 82

Analytics in Action: Cincinnati Zoo & Botanical Garden 83
3.1 Overview of Data Visualization 85
Effective Design Techniques 85
3.2 Tables 88
Table Design Principles 89
Crosstabulation 90
PivotTables in Excel 93
Recommended PivotTables in Excel 97
3.3 Charts 99
Scatter Charts 99
Recommended Charts in Excel 101
Contents ix
Line Charts 102

Bar Charts and Column Charts 106
A Note on Pie Charts and Three-Dimensional Charts 107
Bubble Charts 109
Heat Maps 110
Additional Charts for Multiple Variables 112
PivotCharts in Excel 115
3.4 Advanced Data Visualization 117
Advanced Charts 117
Geographic Information Systems Charts 120
3.5 Data Dashboards 122
Principles of Effective Data Dashboards 123
Applications of Data Dashboards 123
Summary 125
Glossary 125
Problems 126
Case Problem: All-Time Movie Box-Office Data 136
Appendix 3.1 Creating a Scatter-Chart Matrix and a Parallel-Coordinates
Plot with Analytic Solver (MindTap Reader)
CHAPTER 4 Descriptive Data Mining 138

Analytics in Action: Advice from a Machine 139
4.1 Cluster Analysis 140
Measuring Similarity Between Observations 140
Hierarchical Clustering 143
k-Means Clustering 146
Hierarchical Clustering versus k-Means Clustering 147
4.2 Association Rules 148
Evaluating Association Rules 150
4.3 Text Mining 151
Voice of the Customer at Triad Airline 151
Preprocessing Text Data for Analysis 153
Movie Reviews 154
Summary 155
Glossary 155
Problems 156
Case Problem: Know Thy Customer 164
Available in the MindTap Reader:
Appendix 4.1 Hierarchical Clustering with Analytic Solver
Appendix 4.2 k-Means Clustering with Analytic Solver
Appendix 4.3 Association Rules with Analytic Solver
Appendix 4.4 Text Mining with Analytic Solver
Appendix 4.5 Opening and Saving Excel files in JMP Pro
Appendix 4.6 Hierarchical Clustering with JMP Pro
x Contents
Appendix 4.7 k-Means Clustering with JMP Pro

Appendix 4.8 Association Rules with JMP Pro
Appendix 4.9 Text Mining with JMP Pro
CHAPTER 5 Probability: An Introduction to

Modeling Uncertainty 166
Analytics in Action: National Aeronautics and Space Administration 167
5.1 Events and Probabilities 168
5.2 Some Basic Relationships of Probability 169
Complement of an Event 169
Addition Law 170
5.3 Conditional Probability 172
Independent Events 177
Multiplication Law 177
Bayes’ Theorem 178
5.4 Random Variables 180
Discrete Random Variables 180
Continuous Random Variables 181
5.5 Discrete Probability Distributions 182
Custom Discrete Probability Distribution 182
Expected Value and Variance 184
Discrete Uniform Probability Distribution 187
Binomial Probability Distribution 188
Poisson Probability Distribution 191
5.6 Continuous Probability Distributions 194
Uniform Probability Distribution 194
Triangular Probability Distribution 196
Normal Probability Distribution 198
Exponential Probability Distribution 203
Summary 207
Glossary 207
Problems 209
Case Problem: Hamilton County Judges 218
CHAPTER 6 Statistical Inference 220

Analytics in Action: John Morrell & Company 221
6.1 Selecting a Sample 223
Sampling from a Finite Population 223
Sampling from an Infinite Population 224
6.2 Point Estimation 227
Practical Advice 229
6.3 Sampling Distributions 229
Sampling Distribution of x 232
Sampling Distribution of p 237
Contents xi
6.4 Interval Estimation 240

Interval Estimation of the Population Mean 240
Interval Estimation of the Population Proportion 247
6.5 Hypothesis Tests 250
Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses 250
Type I and Type II Errors 253
Hypothesis Test of the Population Mean 254
Hypothesis Test of the Population Proportion 265
6.6 Big Data, Statistical Inference, and Practical Significance 268
Sampling Error 268
Nonsampling Error 269
Big Data 270
Understanding What Big Data Is 271
Big Data and Sampling Error 272
Big Data and the Precision of Confidence Intervals 273
Implications of Big Data for Confidence Intervals 274
Big Data, Hypothesis Testing, and p Values 275
Implications of Big Data in Hypothesis Testing 277
Summary 278
Glossary 279
Problems 281
Case Problem 1: Young Professional Magazine 291
Case Problem 2: Quality Associates, Inc 292
CHAPTER 7 Linear Regression 294

Analytics in Action: Alliance Data Systems 295
7.1 Simple Linear Regression Model 296
Regression Model 296
Estimated Regression Equation 296
7.2 Least Squares Method 298
Least Squares Estimates of the Regression Parameters 300
Using Excel’s Chart Tools to Compute the Estimated
Regression Equation 302
7.3 Assessing the Fit of the Simple Linear Regression Model 304
The Sums of Squares 304
The Coefficient of Determination 306
Using Excel’s Chart Tools to Compute the Coefficient
of Determination 307
7.4 The Multiple Regression Model 308
Estimated Multiple Regression Equation 308
Least Squares Method and Multiple Regression 309
Butler Trucking Company and Multiple Regression 310
Using Excel’s Regression Tool to Develop the Estimated Multiple
Regression Equation 310
xii Contents
7.5 Inference and Regression 313

Conditions Necessary for Valid Inference in the Least Squares
Testing Individual Regression Parameters 318
Addressing Nonsignificant Independent Variables 321
Multicollinearity 322
7.6 Categorical Independent Variables 325
Butler Trucking Company and Rush Hour 325
Interpreting the Parameters 327
More Complex Categorical Variables 328
7.7 Modeling Nonlinear Relationships 330
Quadratic Regression Models 331
Piecewise Linear Regression Models 335
Interaction Between Independent Variables 337
7.8 Model Fitting 342
Variable Selection Procedures 342
Overfitting 343
7.9 Big Data and Regression 344
Inference and Very Large Samples 344
Model Selection 348
7.10 Prediction with Regression 349
Summary 351
Glossary 352
Problems 354
Case Problem: Alumni Giving 369
Appendix 7.1 Regression with Analytic Solver (MindTap Reader)
CHAPTER 8 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting 372

Analytics in Action: ACCO Brands 373
8.1 Time Series Patterns 375
Horizontal Pattern 375
Trend Pattern 377
Seasonal Pattern 378
Trend and Seasonal Pattern 379
Cyclical Pattern 382
Identifying Time Series Patterns 382
8.2 Forecast Accuracy 382
8.3 Moving Averages and Exponential Smoothing 386
Moving Averages 387
Exponential Smoothing 391
8.4 Using Regression Analysis for Forecasting 395
Linear Trend Projection 395
Seasonality Without Trend 397
Seasonality with Trend 398
Using Regression Analysis as a Causal Forecasting Method 401
Contents xiii
Combining Causal Variables with Trend and Seasonality Effects 404

Considerations in Using Regression in Forecasting 405
8.5 Determining the Best Forecasting Model to Use 405
Summary 406
Glossary 406
Problems 407
Case Problem: Forecasting Food and Beverage Sales 415
Appendix 8.1 Using the Excel Forecast Sheet 416
Appendix 8.2 Forecasting with Analytic Solver (MindTap Reader)
CHAPTER 9 Predictive Data Mining 422

Analytics in Action: Orbitz 423
9.1 Data Sampling, Preparation, and Partitioning 424
9.2 Performance Measures 425
Evaluating the Classification of Categorical Outcomes 425
Evaluating the Estimation of Continuous Outcomes 431
9.3 Logistic Regression 432
9.4 k-Nearest Neighbors 436
Classifying Categorical Outcomes with k-Nearest Neighbors 436
Estimating Continuous Outcomes with k-Nearest Neighbors 438
9.5 Classification and Regression Trees 439
Classifying Categorical Outcomes with a Classification Tree 439
Estimating Continuous Outcomes with a Regression Tree 445
Ensemble Methods 446
Summary 449
Glossary 450
Problems 452
Case Problem: Grey Code Corporation 462
Appendix 9.1 Data Partitioning with Analytic Solver
Appendix 9.2 Logistic Regression Classification with Analytic Solver
Appendix 9.3 k-Nearest Neighbor Classification and Estimation with
Analytic Solver
Appendix 9.4 Single Classification and Regression Trees with
Analytic Solver
Appendix 9.5 Random Forests of Classification or Regression Trees with
Analytic Solver
Appendix 9.6 Data Partitioning with JMP Pro
Appendix 9.7 Logistic Regression Classification with JMP Pro
Appendix 9.8 k-Nearest Neighbor Classification and Estimation with
JMP Pro
Appendix 9.9 Single Classification and Regression Trees with JMP Pro
Appendix 9.10 Random Forests of Classification and Regression Trees
with JMP Pro
xiv Contents
CHAPTER 10 Spreadsheet Models 464

Analytics in Action: Procter & Gamble 465
10.1 Building Good Spreadsheet Models 466
Influence Diagrams 466
Building a Mathematical Model 466
Spreadsheet Design and Implementing
the Model in a Spreadsheet 468
10.2 What-If Analysis 471
Data Tables 471
Goal Seek 473
Scenario Manager 475
10.3 Some Useful Excel Functions for Modeling 480
SUM and SUMPRODUCT 481
IF and COUNTIF 483
VLOOKUP 485
10.4 Auditing Spreadsheet Models 487
Trace Precedents and Dependents 487
Show Formulas 487
Evaluate Formulas 489
Error Checking 489
Watch Window 490
10.5 Predictive and Prescriptive Spreadsheet Models 491
Summary 492
Glossary 492
Problems 493
Case Problem: Retirement Plan 499
CHAPTER 11 Monte Carlo Simulation 500

Analytics in Action: Polio Eradication 501
11.1 Risk Analysis for Sanotronics LLC 502
Base-Case Scenario 502
Worst-Case Scenario 503
Best-Case Scenario 503
Sanotronics Spreadsheet Model 503
Use of Probability Distributions to Represent Random
Variables 504
Generating Values for Random Variables with Excel 506
Executing Simulation Trials with Excel 510
Measuring and Analyzing Simulation Output 510
11.2 Simulation Modeling for Land Shark Inc. 514
Spreadsheet Model for Land Shark 515
Generating Values for Land Shark’s Random Variables 517
Executing Simulation Trials and Analyzing Output 519
Generating Bid Amounts with Fitted Distributions 522
11.3 Simulation with Dependent Random Variables 527
Spreadsheet Model for Press Teag Worldwide 527
Contents xv
11.4 Simulation Considerations 532

Verification and Validation 532
Advantages and Disadvantages of Using Simulation 532
Summary 533
Glossary 534
Problems 534
Case Problem: Four Corners 547
Appendix 11.1 Common Probability Distributions for Simulation 549
Appendix 11.2 Land Shark Inc. Simulation with Analytic Solver
Appendix 11.3 Distribution Fitting with Analytic Solver
Appendix 11.4 Correlating Random Variables with Analytic Solver
Appendix 11.5 Simulation Optimization with Analytic Solver
CHAPTER 12 Linear Optimization Models 556

Analytics in Action: General Electric 557
12.1 A Simple Maximization Problem 558
Problem Formulation 559
Mathematical Model for the Par, Inc. Problem 561
12.2 Solving the Par, Inc. Problem 561
The Geometry of the Par, Inc. Problem 562
Solving Linear Programs with Excel Solver 564
12.3 A Simple Minimization Problem 568
Problem Formulation 568
Solution for the M&D Chemicals Problem 568
12.4 Special Cases of Linear Program Outcomes 570
Alternative Optimal Solutions 571
Infeasibility 572
Unbounded 573
12.5 Sensitivity Analysis 575
Interpreting Excel Solver Sensitivity Report 575
12.6 General Linear Programming Notation
and More Examples 577
Investment Portfolio Selection 578
Transportation Planning 580
Advertising Campaign Planning 584
12.7 Generating an Alternative Optimal Solution
for a Linear Program 589
Summary 591
Glossary 592
Problems 593
Case Problem: Investment Strategy 604
Appendix 12.1 Solving Linear Optimization Models Using
Analytic Solver (MindTap Reader)
xvi Contents
CHAPTER 13 Integer Linear Optimization Models 606

Analytics in Action: Petrobras 607
13.1 Types of Integer Linear Optimization Models 607
13.2 Eastborne Realty, an Example of Integer Optimization 608
The Geometry of Linear All-Integer Optimization 609
13.3 Solving Integer Optimization Problems with Excel Solver 611
A Cautionary Note About Sensitivity Analysis 614
13.4 Applications Involving Binary Variables 616
Capital Budgeting 616
Fixed Cost 618
Bank Location 621
Product Design and Market Share Optimization 623
13.5 Modeling Flexibility Provided by Binary Variables 626
Multiple-Choice and Mutually Exclusive Constraints 626
k Out of n Alternatives Constraint 627
Conditional and Corequisite Constraints 627
13.6 Generating Alternatives in Binary Optimization 628
Summary 630
Glossary 631
Problems 632
Case Problem: Applecore Children’s Clothing 643
Appendix 13.1 Solving Integer Linear Optimization Problems Using
Analytic Solver (MindTap Reader)
CHAPTER 14 Nonlinear Optimization Models 646

Analytics in Action: InterContinental Hotels 647
14.1 A Production Application: Par, Inc. Revisited 647
An Unconstrained Problem 647
A Constrained Problem 648
Solving Nonlinear Optimization Models Using Excel Solver 650
Sensitivity Analysis and Shadow Prices in Nonlinear Models 651
14.2 Local and Global Optima 652
Overcoming Local Optima with Excel Solver 655
14.3 A Location Problem 657
14.4 Markowitz Portfolio Model 658
14.5 Forecasting Adoption of a New Product 663
Summary 666
Glossary 667
Problems 667
Case Problem: Portfolio Optimization with Transaction Costs 675
Appendix 14.1 Solving Nonlinear Optimization Problems with Analytic
Solver (MindTap Reader)
Contents xvii
CHAPTER 15 Decision Analysis 678

Analytics in Action: Phytopharm 679
15.1 Problem Formulation 680
Payoff Tables 681
Decision Trees 681
15.2 Decision Analysis without Probabilities 682
Optimistic Approach 682
Conservative Approach 683
Minimax Regret Approach 683
15.3 Decision Analysis with Probabilities 685
Expected Value Approach 685
Risk Analysis 687
Sensitivity Analysis 688
15.4 Decision Analysis with Sample Information 689
Expected Value of Sample Information 694
Expected Value of Perfect Information 694
15.5 Computing Branch Probabilities with Bayes’ Theorem 695
15.6 Utility Theory 698
Utility and Decision Analysis 699
Utility Functions 703
Exponential Utility Function 706
Summary 708
Glossary 708
Problems 710
Case Problem: Property Purchase Strategy 721
Appendix 15.1 Using Analytic Solver to Create Decision Trees
(MindTap Reader)
APPENDIX A Basics of Excel 724
APPENDIX B Database Basics with Microsoft Access 736
APPENDIX C Solutions to Even-Numbered Questions (MindTap Reader)
REFERENCES 774
INDEX 776
About the Authors
Jeffrey D. Camm. Jeffrey D. Camm is the Inmar Presidential Chair and Associate Dean of
Analytics in the School of Business at Wake Forest University. Born in Cincinnati, Ohio, he
holds a B.S. from Xavier University (Ohio) and a Ph.D. from Clemson University. Prior to
joining the faculty at Wake Forest, he was on the faculty of the University of Cincinnati. He
has also been a visiting scholar at Stanford University and a visiting professor of business
administration at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College.
Dr. Camm has published over 35 papers in the general area of optimization applied
to problems in operations management and marketing. He has published his research in
Science, Management Science, Operations Research, Interfaces, and other professional
journals. Dr. Camm was named the Dornoff Fellow of Teaching Excellence at the Univer-
sity of Cincinnati and he was the 2006 recipient of the INFORMS Prize for the Teaching of
Operations Research Practice. A firm believer in practicing what he preaches, he has served
as an analytics consultant to numerous companies and government agencies. From 2005
to 2010 he served as editor-in-chief of Interfaces. In 2016, Dr. Camm was awarded the
Kimball Medal for service to the operations research profession and in 2017 he was named
an INFORMS Fellow.
James J. Cochran. James J. Cochran is Associate Dean for Research, Professor of Applied
Statistics, and the Rogers-Spivey Faculty Fellow at the University of Alabama. Born in Day-
ton, Ohio, he earned his B.S., M.S., and M.B.A. degrees from Wright State University and a
Ph.D. from the University of Cincinnati. He has been at the University of Alabama since 2014
and has been a visiting scholar at Stanford University, Universidad de Talca, the University
of South Africa, and Pole Universitaire Leonard de Vinci.
Professor Cochran has published over three dozen papers in the development and
application of operations research and statistical methods. He has published his research
in Management Science, The American Statistician, Communications in Statistics—Theory
and Methods, Annals of Operations Research, European Journal of Operational Research,
Journal of Combinatorial Optimization. Interfaces, Statistics and Probability Letters, and
other professional journals. He was the 2008 recipient of the INFORMS Prize for the
Teaching of Operations Research Practice and the 2010 recipient of the Mu Sigma Rho
Statistical Education Award. Professor Cochran was elected to the International Statistics
Institute in 2005 and named a Fellow of the American Statistical Association in 2011 and a
Fellow of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)
in 2017. He also received the Founders Award in 2014, the Karl E. Peace Award in 2015,
and the Waller Distinguished Teaching Career Award in 2017 from the American Statistical
Association. A strong advocate for effective operations research and statistics education as
a means of improving the quality of applications to real problems, Professor Cochran has
organized and chaired teaching effectiveness workshops in Montevideo, Uruguay; Cape
Town, South Africa; Cartagena, Colombia; Jaipur, India; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Nairobi,
Kenya; Buea, C ameroon; Suva, Fiji; Kathmandu, Nepal; Osijek, Croatia; Havana, Cuba;
Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia; and Chişinău, Moldova. He has served as an operations research
consultant to numerous companies and not-for-profit organizations. He served as editor-
in-chief of INFORMS Transactions on E ducation from 2006 to 2012 and is on the editorial
board of Interfaces, International Transactions in Operational Research, and Significance.
Michael J. Fry. Michael J. Fry is Professor and Head of the Department of Operations,
Business Analytics, and Information Systems in the Carl H. Lindner College of Business
at the University of Cincinnati. Born in Killeen, Texas, he earned a B.S. from Texas A&M
University, and M.S.E. and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Michigan. He has been
xx About the Authors
at the University of Cincinnati since 2002, where he has been named a Lindner Research
Fellow and has served as Assistant Director and Interim Director of the Center for Business
Analytics. He has also been a visiting professor at Cornell University and at the University
of British Columbia.
Professor Fry has published over 20 research papers in journals such as Operations
Research, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, Transportation Science, Naval
Research Logistics, IIE Transactions, and Interfaces. His research interests are in applying
quantitative management methods to the areas of supply chain analytics, sports analytics, and
public-policy operations. He has worked with many different organizations for his research,
including Dell, Inc., Copeland Corporation, Starbucks Coffee Company, Great American
Insurance Group, the Cincinnati Fire Department, the State of Ohio Election Commission, the
Cincinnati Bengals, and the Cincinnati Zoo. In 2008, he was named a finalist for the Daniel
H. Wagner Prize for Excellence in Operations Research Practice, and he has been recognized
for both his research and teaching excellence at the University of Cincinnati.
Jeffrey W. Ohlmann. Jeffrey W. Ohlmann is Associate Professor of Management Sciences

and Huneke Research Fellow in the Tippie College of Business at the University of Iowa.
Born in Valentine, Nebraska, he earned a B.S. from the University of Nebraska, and M.S.
and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Michigan. He has been at the University of Iowa
since 2003.
Professor Ohlmann’s research on the modeling and solution of decision-making problems
has produced over 20 research papers in journals such as Operations Research, Mathematics
of Operations Research, INFORMS Journal on Computing, Transportation Science, E uropean
Journal of Operational Research, and Interfaces. He has collaborated with companies
such as Transfreight, LeanCor, Cargill, the Hamilton County Board of Elections, and three
National Football League franchises. Due to the relevance of his work to industry, he was
bestowed the George B. Dantzig Dissertation Award and was recognized as a finalist for the
Daniel H. Wagner Prize for Excellence in Operations Research Practice.
David R. Anderson. David R. Anderson is Professor Emeritus of Quantitative Analysis in

the Carl H. Lindner College of Business at the University of Cincinnati. Born in Grand Forks,
North Dakota, he earned his B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. degrees from Purdue University. Professor
Anderson has served as Head of the Department of Quantitative Analysis and Operations
Management and as Associate Dean of the College of Business Administration. In addition,
he was the coordinator of the College’s first Executive Program.
At the University of Cincinnati, Professor Anderson has taught introductory statistics
for business students as well as graduate-level courses in regression analysis, multivariate
analysis, and management science. He has also taught statistical courses at the Department of
Labor in Washington, D.C. He has been honored with nominations and awards for excellence
in teaching and excellence in service to student organizations.
Professor Anderson has coauthored 10 textbooks in the areas of statistics, management
science, linear programming, and production and operations management. He is an active
consultant in the field of sampling and statistical methods.
Dennis J. Sweeney. Dennis J. Sweeney is Professor Emeritus of Quantitative Analysis and

Founder of the Center for Productivity Improvement at the University of Cincinnati. Born in
Des Moines, Iowa, he earned a B.S.B.A. degree from Drake University and his M.B.A. and
D.B.A. degrees from Indiana University, where he was an NDEA Fellow. During 1978–1979,
Professor Sweeney worked in the management science group at Procter & Gamble; during
1981–1982, he was a visiting professor at Duke University. Professor Sweeney served as
Head of the Department of Quantitative Analysis and as Associate Dean of the College of
Business Administration at the University of Cincinnati.
About the Authors xxi
Professor Sweeney has published more than 30 articles and monographs in the areas
of management science and statistics. The National Science Foundation, IBM, Procter &
Gamble, Federated Department Stores, Kroger, and Cincinnati Gas & Electric have funded
his research, which has been published in Management Science, Operations Research, Math-
ematical Programming, Decision Sciences, and other journals.
Professor Sweeney has coauthored 10 textbooks in the areas of statistics, management
science, linear programming, and production and operations management.
Thomas A. Williams. Thomas A. Williams is Professor Emeritus of Management Science

in the College of Business at Rochester Institute of Technology. Born in Elmira, New York,
he earned his B.S. degree at Clarkson University. He did his graduate work at Rensselaer
Polytechnic Institute, where he received his M.S. and Ph.D. degrees.
Before joining the College of Business at RIT, Professor Williams served for seven years
as a faculty member in the College of Business Administration at the University of Cincinnati,
where he developed the undergraduate program in Information Systems and then served as
its coordinator. At RIT he was the first chairman of the Decision Sciences Department. He
teaches courses in management science and statistics, as well as graduate courses in regres-
sion and decision analysis.
Professor Williams is the coauthor of 11 textbooks in the areas of management science,
statistics, production and operations management, and mathematics. He has been a consultant
for numerous Fortune 500 companies and has worked on projects ranging from the use of
data analysis to the development of large-scale regression models.
Preface
B usiness Analytics 3E is designed to introduce the concept of business analytics to under-
graduate and graduate students. This textbook contains one of the first collections of
materials that are essential to the growing field of business analytics. In Chapter 1 we present
an overview of business analytics and our approach to the material in this textbook. In simple
terms, business analytics helps business professionals make better decisions based on data.
We discuss models for summarizing, visualizing, and understanding useful information from
historical data in Chapters 2 through 6. Chapters 7 through 9 introduce methods for both gain-
ing insights from historical data and predicting possible future outcomes. Chapter 10 covers
the use of spreadsheets for examining data and building decision models. In Chapter 11, we
demonstrate how to explicitly introduce uncertainty into spreadsheet models through the use
of Monte Carlo simulation. In Chapters 12 through 14 we discuss optimization models to
help decision makers choose the best decision based on the available data. Chapter 15 is an
overview of decision analysis approaches for incorporating a decision maker’s views about
risk into decision making. In Appendix A we present optional material for students who need
to learn the basics of using Microsoft Excel. The use of databases and manipulating data in
Microsoft Access is discussed in Appendix B.
This textbook can be used by students who have previously taken a course on basic statisti-
cal methods as well as students who have not had a prior course in statistics. Business Analytics
3E is also amenable to a two-course sequence in business statistics and analytics. All statistical
concepts contained in this textbook are presented from a business analytics perspective using
practical business examples. Chapters 2, 5, 6, and 7 provide an introduction to basic statistical
concepts that form the foundation for more advanced analytics methods. Chapters 3, 4, and 9
cover additional topics of data visualization and data mining that are not traditionally part of
most introductory business statistics courses, but they are exceedingly important and commonly
used in current business environments. Chapter 10 and Appendix A provide the foundational
knowledge students need to use Microsoft Excel for analytics applications. Chapters 11 through
15 build upon this spreadsheet knowledge to present additional topics that are used by many
organizations that are leaders in the use of prescriptive analytics to improve decision making.
Updates in the Third Edition

The third edition of Business Analytics is a major revision. We have heavily modified our
data mining chapters to allow instructors to choose their preferred means of teaching this
material in terms of software usage. Chapters 4 and 9 now both contain conceptual homework
problems that can be solved by students without using any software. Additionally, we now
include online appendices on both Analytic Solver and JMP Pro as software for teaching data
mining so that instructors can choose their favored way of teaching this material. Chapter 4
also now includes a section on text mining, a fast-growing topic in business analytics. We
have moved our chapter on Monte Carlo simulation to Chapter 11, and we have completely
rewritten this chapter to greatly expand the material that can be covered using only native
Excel. Other changes in this edition include additional content on big-data concepts, data
cleansing, new data visualization topics in Excel, and additional homework problems.
●● Software Updates for Data Mining Chapters. Chapters 4 and 9 have received exten-
sive updates. The end-of-chapter problems are now written so that they can be solved
using any data-mining software. To allow instructors to choose different software for
use with these chapters, we have created online appendices for both Analytic Solver
and JMP Pro. Analytic Solver has undergone major changes since the previous edition
of this textbook. Therefore, we have reworked all examples, problems, and cases using
Analytic Solver Basic V2017, the version of this software now available to students.
We have created new appendices for Chapters 4 and 9 that introduce the use of JMP
Pro 13 for data mining. JMP Pro is a powerful software that is still easy to learn and
easy to use. We have also added five homework problems to Chapters 4 and 9 that can
xxiv Preface
be solved without using any software. This allows instructors to cover the basics of
data mining without using any additional software. The online appendices for Chap-
ters 4 and 9 also include Analytic Solver and JMP Pro specific instructions for how
to solve the end-of-chapter problems using Analytic Solver or JMP Pro. Problem and
case solutions using both Analytic Solver and JMP Pro are also available to instructors.
●● New Section on Text Mining. Chapter 4 now includes a section on text mining. With
the proliferation of unstructured data, generating insights from text is becoming increas-
ingly important. We have added two problems related to text mining to Chapter 4.
We also include online appendices for using either Analytic Solver or JMP Pro to per-
form basic text mining functions.
●● Revision of Monte Carlo Simulation Chapter. Our chapter on simulation models
has been heavily revised. In the body of the chapter, we construct simulation models
solely using native Excel functionality. This pedagogical design choice is based on the
authors’ own experiences and motivated by the following factors: (1) it primarily avoids
software incompatibility issues for students with different operating systems (Apple
OS versus Microsoft Windows); and (2) it separates simulation concepts from software
steps so that students realize that they do not need a specific software package to utilize
simulation in their future careers.
To support our approach, we have added many more topics and examples that can
be taught using native Excel functions. Our coverage now guides the instructor and stu-
dent through many different types of simulation models and output analysis using only
native Excel. However, if instructors wish to utilize specialized Monte Carlo simulation
software, the examples and problems in the chapter can all be solved with specialized
software. To demonstrate, we include an updated online appendix for using Analytic
Solver to create simulation models and perform output analysis.
We have also moved our chapter on simulation models to Chapter 11, prior to the
chapters on optimization models. We believe this presents a better ordering of topics as
it follows immediately after Chapter 10 that covers good design techniques for Excel
spreadsheet models. In particular, we have added a new section in Chapter 10 on using
the Scenario Manager tool in Excel that creates a natural bridge to the coverage of
simulation models in Chapter 11. The end-of-chapter problems and case in Chapter 11
can all be solved using native Excel. Problem and case solutions for Chapter 11 using
both native Excel and Analytic Solver are available to instructors.
●● Additional Material on Big-Data Topics. We have added new sections in Chapters 6
and 7 to enhance our coverage of topics related to big data. In Chapter 6, we introduce
the concept of big data, and we discuss some additional challenges and implications of
applying statistical inference when you have very large sample sizes. In Chapter 7, we
expand on these concepts by discussing the estimation and use of regression models
with very large sample sizes.
●● New Data Analysis and Data Visualization Tools in Excel. Excel 2016 introduces
several new tools for data analysis and data visualization. Chapter 2 now covers how
to create a box plot in native Excel. In Chapter 3 we have added coverage of how to
create more advanced data visualization tools in native Excel such as treemaps and
geographic information system (GIS) charts.
●● New Section on Data Cleansing. Chapter 2 now includes a section on data cleansing.
This section introduces concepts related to missing data, outliers, and variable represen-
tation. These are exceptionally important concepts that face all analytics professionals
when dealing with real data that can have missing values and errors.
●● Excel Forecast Sheet. As we did in the second edition, Chapter 8 includes an appendix for
using the Forecast Sheet tool in Excel 2016. Excel's Forecast Sheet tool implements a time
series forecasting model known as the Holt-Winters additive seasonal smoothing model.
●● New End-of-Chapter Problems. The third edition of this textbook includes new prob-
lems in Chapters 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 10, 11, 13, and 14. As we have done in past editions, Excel
solution files are available to instructors for problems that require the use of Excel.
Preface xxv
●● Software Appendices Moved Online. Chapter appendices that deal with the use of
Analytic Solver or JMP Pro have been moved online as part of the MindTap Reader
eBook. This preserves the flow of material in the textbook and allows instructors to eas-
ily cover all material using only native Excel if that is preferred. The online appendices
offer extensive coverage of Analytic Solver for concepts covered in Chapters 2, 3, 4, 7,
8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15. Online appendices for Chapters 4 and 9 cover the usage of
JMP Pro for data mining. Contact your Cengage representative for more information
on how your students can access the MindTap Reader.
Continued Features and Pedagogy

In the third edition of this textbook, we continue to offer all of the features that have been
successful in the first two editions. Some of the specific features that we use in this textbook
are listed below.
●● Integration of Microsoft Excel: Excel has been thoroughly integrated throughout
this textbook. For many methodologies, we provide instructions for how to perform
calculations both by hand and with Excel. In other cases where realistic models are
practical only with the use of a spreadsheet, we focus on the use of Excel to describe
the methods to be used.
●● Notes and Comments: At the end of many sections, we provide Notes and Comments
to give the student additional insights about the methods presented in that section.
These insights include comments on the limitations of the presented methods, recom-
mendations for applications, and other matters. Additionally, margin notes are used
throughout the textbook to provide additional insights and tips related to the specific
material being discussed.
●● Analytics in Action: Each chapter contains an Analytics in Action article. These
articles present interesting examples of the use of business analytics in practice. The
examples are drawn from many different organizations in a variety of areas including
healthcare, finance, manufacturing, marketing, and others.
●● DATAfiles and MODELfiles: All data sets used as examples and in student exercises
are also provided online on the companion site as files available for download by
the student. DATAfiles are Excel files that contain data needed for the examples and
problems given in the textbook. MODELfiles contain additional modeling features
such as extensive use of Excel formulas or the use of Excel Solver, Analytic Solver,
or JMP Pro.
●● Problems and Cases: With the exception of Chapter 1, each chapter contains an exten-
sive selection of problems to help the student master the material presented in that
chapter. The problems vary in difficulty and most relate to specific examples of the use
of business analytics in practice. Answers to even-numbered problems are provided in
an online supplement for student access. With the exception of Chapter 1, each chap-
ter also includes an in-depth case study that connects many of the different methods
introduced in the chapter. The case studies are designed to be more open-ended than
the chapter problems, but enough detail is provided to give the student some direction
in solving the cases.
MindTap
MindTap is a customizable digital course solution that includes an interactive eBook, auto-
graded exercises from the textbook, algorithmic practice problems with solutions feedback,
Exploring Analytics visualizations, Adaptive Test Prep, and more! All of these materials offer
students better access to resources to understand the materials within the course. For more
information on MindTap, please contact your Cengage representative.
xxvi Preface
For Students
Online resources are available to help the student work more efficiently. The resources can
be accessed through www.cengagebrain.com.
●● Analytic Solver: Instructions to download an educational version of Frontline Systems’
Analytic Solver Basic V2017 are included with the purchase of this textbook. These
instructions can be found within the inside front cover of this text, within MindTap in the
‘Course Materials’ folder, and online on the text companion site at www.cengagebrain.com.
Note that there is now a small charge for one-semester access to Analytic Solver.
For more information on pricing and available discounts for student users, please con-
tact Frontline Systems directly at 775-831-0300 and press 0 for advice on courses and
software licenses.
●● JMP Pro: Most universities have site licenses of SAS Institute’s JMP Pro software on
both Mac and Windows. These are typically offered through your university’s software
licensing administrator. Faculty may contact the JMP Academic team to find out if their
universities have a license or to request a complementary instructor copy at www.jmp.
com/contact-academic. For institutions without a site license, students may rent a 6 or
12-month license for JMP at www.onthehub.com/jmp.
For Instructors
Instructor resources are available to adopters on the Instructor Companion Site, which can
be found and accessed at www.cengage.com, including:
●● Solutions Manual: The Solutions Manual, prepared by the authors, includes solutions
for all problems in the text. It is available online as well as print. Excel solution files
are available to instructors for those problems that require the use of Excel. Solutions
for Chapters 4 and 9 are available using both Analytic Solver and JMP Pro for data
mining problems. Solutions for Chapter 11 are available using both native Excel and
Analytic Solver for simulation problems.
●● Solutions to Case Problems: These are also prepared by the authors and contain
solutions to all case problems presented in the text. Case solutions for Chapters 4 and 9
are provided using both Analytic Solver and JMP Pro. Case solutions for Chapter 11
are available using both native Excel and Analytic Solver.
●● PowerPoint Presentation Slides: The presentation slides contain a teaching outline
that incorporates figures to complement instructor lectures.
●● Test Bank: Cengage Learning Testing Powered by Cognero is a flexible, online system
that allows you to:
●● author, edit, and manage test bank content from multiple Cengage Learning solutions,
●● create multiple test versions in an instant, and
●● deliver tests from your Learning Management System (LMS), your classroom, or
wherever you want. The Test Bank is also available in Microsoft Word.
Acknowledgments
We would like to acknowledge the work of reviewers and users who have provided comments
and suggestions for improvement of this text. Thanks to:
Matthew D. Bailey
Bucknell University
Phillip Beaver
University of Denver
M. Khurrum S. Bhutta
Ohio University
Paolo Catasti
Virginia Commonwealth University
Preface xxvii
Q B. Chung
Villanova University
Elizabeth A. Denny
University of Kentucky
Mike Taein Eom
University of Portland
Yvette Njan Essounga
Fayetteville State University
Lawrence V. Fulton
Texas State University
Tom Groleau
Carthage College
James F. Hoelscher
Lincoln Memorial University
Eric Huggins
Fort Lewis College
Faizul Huq
Ohio University
Marco Lam
York College of Pennsylvania
Thomas Lee
University of California, Berkeley
Roger Myerson
Northwestern University
Ram Pakath
University of Kentucky
Susan Palocsay
James Madison University
Andy Shogan
University of California, Berkeley
Dothan Truong
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
Kai Wang
Wake Technical Community College
Ed Wasil
American University
We are indebted to our Senior Product Team Manager, Joe Sabatino and our Senior Product
Manager, Aaron Arnsparger; our Senior Digital Content Designer, Brandon Foltz, our Senior
Marketing Manager, Nathan Anderson, and our Content Developer, Anne Merrill; our Content
Project Manager, Jean Buttrom; and others at Cengage Learning for their counsel and support
during the preparation of this text.
Jeffrey D. Camm
James J. Cochran
Michael J. Fry
Jeffrey W. Ohlmann
David R. Anderson
Dennis J. Sweeney
Thomas A. Williams
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“No, they have not!” exclaimed the daughter. “Everybody says he is
the best lawyer in New York. He has refused to be a judge several
times!”
“Oh, come, Molly! Don’t make a fool of your old father!”
“Go ahead, Miss Molly,” cried Mr. Fettiplace. “Don’t mind him! I know
you are right. But I suppose he pays the customary penalty for his
greatness; slaves day and night, both summer and winter, eh?”
“Yes, he does, and if you have any influence with him, Mr. Fettiplace,
I wish you would bring it to bear.”
“I will. He shall do just as you decide.”
“Now, Molly,” said Mr. Cabot, “be just. Have I not promised to take a
three months’ vacation this summer?”
“Where do you spend the summer?” asked Mr. Fettiplace.
“I don’t know yet. We gave up our place at the shore two years ago.
The salt air does not agree with me any too well; and neither Molly
nor I care for it particularly.”
There was a pause, and the guest felt that the wife’s death might
have saddened the pleasant memories in the house by the sea. As if
struck with an idea, he laid down his fork and exclaimed:
“Why not come to Daleford? There is a house all furnished and
ready for you! My daughter and her husband are going abroad, and
you could have it until November if you wished.”
“Where is that, Sam?”
“Well,” said Mr. Fettiplace, closing his eyes in a profound calculation,
“I am weak at figures, but on the map it is north of Hartford and
about a quarter of an inch below the Massachusetts border.”
Mr. Cabot laughed. “I remember you were always weak at figures.
What is it, a fashionable resort?”
“Not at all. If that is what you are after, don’t think of it.”
“But it is not what we are after,” said Molly. “We want a quiet place to
rest and read in.”
“With just enough walking and driving,” put in the father, “to induce
us to eat and sleep a little more than is necessary.”
“Then Daleford is your place,” and the huge guest, with his head to
one side, rolled his light-blue eyes toward Molly.
“Do tell us about it,” she demanded.
“Well, in the first place Daleford itself is a forgotten little village,
where nothing was ever known to happen. Of course births,
marriages, and deaths have occurred there, but even those things
have always been more uneventful than anywhere else. Nothing can
take place without the whole village knowing it, and knowing it at
once: yet the inhabitants are always asleep. No one is ever in sight.
If you should lock yourself in your own room, pull down the curtains
and sneeze, say your prayers or change a garment at an
unaccustomed hour, all Daleford would be commenting on it before
you could unlock the door and get downstairs again.”
“That sounds inviting,” said Mr. Cabot. “There is nothing like privacy.”
“I only tell you this so there shall be no deception. But all that does
not really concern you, as our house is a mile from the village.” Then
he went on to describe its real advantages: the pure air, the hills, the
beautiful scenery, the restful country life, and when he had finished
his hearers were much interested and thought seriously of going to
see it.
“I notice, Sam, that you make no mention of the malaria,
rheumatism, or organized bands of mosquitoes, drunk with your own
blood, who haul you from your bed at dead of night. Or do you take it
for granted we should be disappointed without those things?”
“No, sir. I take it for granted that every New Yorker brings those
things with him,” and again a large china-blue eye was obscured by
a laborious wink as its mate beamed triumphantly upon the daughter.
There were further questions regarding the house, the means of
getting there, and finally Molly asked if there were any neighbors.
“Only one. The others are half a mile away.”
“And who is that one?” she asked.
“That one is Judd, and he is an ideal neighbor.”
“Is he a farmer?”
“Yes, in a way. He raises horses and pups and costly cattle.” Then,
turning to Mr. Cabot. “It is the young man I brought into your office
this morning, Jim.”
“Well, he is too beautiful for the country! If I could spend a summer
near a face like that I shouldn’t care what the scenery was.”
“Is his name Amos Judd?” asked Molly.
“Why, yes. Do you know him?”
“I think I met him early this winter. His reputation is not the best in the
world, is it?”
Mr. Fettiplace seemed embarrassed. He took a sip of wine before
answering.
“Perhaps not. There have been stories about him, but,” and he
continued with more than his habitual earnestness, “I have a higher
opinion of him and would trust him farther than any young man I
know!”
She felt, nevertheless, that Mr. Judd’s reputation might not be a
proper subject for a young lady to discuss, and she remained silent.
But her father was not a young lady, and he had heard nothing of the
improprieties of the young man’s career. “What is his particular line
of sin?” he inquired.
“He has none. At present he is all right; but at college, and that was
five years ago, I am afraid he took a livelier interest in petticoats than
in the advertised course of study.”
“Of course he did,” said Mr. Cabot. “That beauty was given him for
the delectation of other mortals. To conceal it behind a book would
be opposing the will of his Creator.”
“Poor Amos,” said Mr. Fettiplace with a smile, as he slowly shook his
head. “His beauty is his curse. He regards it as a blight, is ashamed
of it, and would give a good deal to look like other people. Everybody
wonders who he is and where he came from. As for the women, they
simply cannot keep their eyes away from him.”
“If I were a woman,” said Mr. Cabot, in a slow, judicial manner, “I
should throw my arms about his neck and insist upon remaining
there.”
Mr. Fettiplace chuckled, not only at the solemnity of his friend’s face
during the delivery of the speech, but at the contemptuous silence
with which this and similar utterances were received by the daughter.
There had always been a gentler and more lovable side to James
Cabot, and he was glad to see that success and honors had not
destroyed the mental friskiness and love of nonsense that had been
an irresistible charm in former years. He was also glad to witness the
affection and perfect understanding between father and daughter. It
was evident that from long experience she was always able to sift
the wheat from the chaff, and was never deceived or unnecessarily
shocked by anything he might choose to say.
“Well, he will be here soon,” said Mr. Fettiplace, “but as you are only
a man, you may have to content yourself with sitting in his lap.”
“Is Mr. Judd coming here this evening?” inquired Molly, in a tone that
betrayed an absence of pleasure at the news.
Her father looked over in mild surprise. “Yes, did I forget to tell you? I
asked him to dine, but he had another engagement. He is to drop in
later. And, by the way, Sam, where did the young man get that face?
No line of Connecticut farmers bequeathed such an inheritance.”
“No, they did not. Judd’s little mystery has never been cleared up. I
can only repeat the common knowledge of Daleford, that the boy
was brought to this country when he was about six years old, and
that a few handfuls of diamonds and rubies came with him. The
value of this treasure has been exaggerated, probably, but with all
allowances made it must have amounted to more than a million
dollars.”
“Why!” exclaimed Molly. “It’s quite like a fairy tale!”
“Yes, and the mystery is still agoing. Josiah Judd, in whose hands he
was placed, happened to be the only person who knew the boy’s
history, and he died without telling it. Who the child was or why he
was sent here no one knows and no one seems likely to discover.
Josiah died about twelve years ago, and ever since that time stray
clusters of emeralds, pearls, and diamonds have been turning up in
unexpected places about the house. Some are hidden away in
secretary drawers, others folded in bits of paper behind books. They
have tumbled from the pockets of Josiah’s old clothes, and a few
years ago his widow discovered in one of his ancient slippers an
envelope containing something that felt like seeds. On the outside
was written ‘Amos’s things.’ She tore it open and found a dozen or
more magnificent rubies, rubies such as one never sees in this
country. They were sold for over two hundred thousand dollars.”
“Gracious!” exclaimed Molly, “what possessed him to leave them in
such places? Was he crazy?”
“On the contrary, he was too wise. Not wishing to dispose of them in
a lump, he did it gradually, and concealed them for greater safety in
different places, so that no one thief could steal them all. Whenever
he sold them he invested the proceeds in solid securities. No one
knows to what extent the old farmhouse is still a jewel casket. It is
more than likely that cracks and corners to-day are hiding their
precious stones.”
“How mysterious and exciting!” exclaimed Molly. “It seems too
romantic for practical New England.”
“That is just the trouble with it,” said her father. He leaned back in his
chair and continued, with a smile, “I suspect our guest has been
reading his ‘Monte Cristo’ lately, which may account for a pardonable
exaggeration in a historian who means to be honest. Who told you
all this, Sam? The Judds’ family cat?”
Mr. Fettiplace drew his hand slowly across his forehead and closed
his blue eyes, as if hesitating for a reply. “There is so much that is
hard to believe connected with Amos that one ought to prepare his
audience before talking about him. I will tell you one little thing that
happened to myself, an occurrence not dependent upon other
people’s credulity. One day last autumn, late in the afternoon, I was
walking along an untravelled road through the woods, when I met
two little children who were playing horse. The front one, the horse,
wore a garment that looked like a white silk overcoat without
sleeves. Otherwise the children were roughly clad, with battered
straw hats and bare feet. The overcoat had a curious, Oriental cut,
and there was a good deal of style to it; so much, in fact, and of such
a foreign flavor, that I stopped to get a better look at it. The wearer, a
boy of eight or ten, I recognized as the son of an unprosperous
farmer who lived in a dilapidated old house not far away. When I
asked him where he got his jacket he said he wore it at the children’s
tableaux: that he was the prince who awoke the sleeping beauty in
the town hall last night. Then I remembered there had been a
performance to raise money for the library.
“While talking with him I noticed there were four rows of little pearl-
shaped buttons around the neck and down the front. They formed
part of an elaborate design, beautifully embroidered in gold and
silver thread, old and somewhat tarnished, but in excellent
preservation. I asked him what those ornaments were, and he
answered they were beads. ‘But who owns the jacket?’ I asked:
‘Does it belong to you?’ No, it belonged to Mrs. Judd, who had lent it
for the performance. ‘Then why don’t you return it to Mrs. Judd?’ Oh,
they were going to return it to-morrow morning. I offered to take it, as
I was going that way, and the jacket was handed over.
“The more I examined the article, the more interested I became, and
finally I sat down on a rock and made a study of it. I found the
garment was of white silk and completely covered with a most
elaborate stitching of gold and silver thread. I am no expert in
precious stones, but I knew those beads were either pearls or
tremendously clever imitations, and when I remembered there was a
good old-fashioned mystery connected with Amos’s arrival in these
parts, I began to feel that the beads stood a fair chance of being
more than they pretended. I counted a hundred and twenty of them.
“When I took the garment to Mrs. Judd and told her what I thought,
she didn’t seem at all surprised; simply told me it had been lying in a
bureau-drawer ever since Amos came, about twenty years ago. She
is over eighty and her memory has gone rapidly the last few years,
but she closed her eyes, stroked her hair, and said she remembered
now that her husband had told her this jacket was worth a good
many dollars. And so they always kept it locked away in an upstairs
drawer, but she had forgotten all about that when she offered it to the
Faxons for their performance. Down the front of the jacket were large
splashes of a dark reddish-brown color which she said had always
been there, and she remembered thinking, as she first laid the coat
away, that Amos had been in some mischief with currant jelly. Amos
was away just then, but when he returned we took all the beads off,
and a few days later I showed a dozen of them to a New York
jeweller who said they were not only real pearls, but for size and
quality he had seldom seen their equal.”
“They must have been tremendously valuable,” said Molly.
“They averaged twelve hundred dollars apiece.”
“Gracious!” she exclaimed. “And there were a hundred and twenty of
them?”
“Yes; they brought a little more than a hundred and forty thousand
dollars.”
“It all harmonizes with Judd’s appearance,” said Mr. Cabot; “I should
not expect him to subsist on every-day American dividends. But it’s a
good jacket, even for fairy land.”
“Yes, it certainly is, and yet there was the usual touch of economy in
it,” Mr. Fettiplace continued. “When we came to remove the pearls,
we found a little gold loop or ring in the setting behind each one of
them. Those loops passed through a sort of circular button-hole in
the garment, and a gold wire, running along beneath the silk, held
the jewels in place, so that by drawing out the wire they were all
detached.”
“Well, where was the economy in that?”
“By being adjusted and removed so easily they probably served,
when occasion required, as necklace, belt, bracelets, earrings,
diadems, or the Lord knows what.”
“Of course,” assented Mr. Cabot. “A frugal device that might be of
service to other farmers. And you began, Sam, by describing
Daleford as an uneventful place. It seems to me that Bagdad is
nothing to it.”
Mr. Fettiplace sipped his coffee without replying. After a short
silence, however, with his eyes upon the coffee which he stirred in
an absent-minded way, he continued:
“There are one or two other things connected with Judd which are
much more difficult to explain. Daleford is full of mysterious tales of
supernatural happenings in which he is the hero of prophecies and
extraordinary fulfilments; always incredible, but told in honest faith by
practical, hard-headed people. Any native will give them to you by
the yard, but the hero, under no conditions, ever alludes to them
himself.”
“Which probably proves,” said Mr. Cabot, “that the hero is the only
one to be relied on. It is such fun to believe in the incredible! That is
the charm of miracles, that they are impossible.”
The rosy guest turned to the daughter with a smile, saying: “And
there is nothing like a hard-headed old lawyer to drag you back to
earth.”
“What were these tales, Mr. Fettiplace? What did they refer to?” she
asked.
But Mr. Fettiplace evidently felt that he had said enough, possibly
because a portion of his audience was not of encouraging material,
for he only answered in a general way that the stories related to
impossible experiences, and were probably only village gossip.
After dinner they sat around the fire in the next room, the two men
with their cigars and Molly at work over a bit of tapestry representing
the Maid of Orleans on a fat, white horse. This horse, according to
her father, must have belonged to a Liverpool circus, and was loaned
to Joanna for tapestry only. When Mr. Judd appeared Molly felt an
augmented interest in this hero of the white jacket, but it was against
both conscience and judgment and in spite of a pious resolve to
consider him simply as a libertine with a murderous temper. That her
father and Mr. Fettiplace had no such abhorrence was evident from
their cordial greeting.
The conversation became general, although the burden of it was
borne by Mr. Fettiplace, who seemed to possess upon every subject
either some interesting facts or a novel theory. Once, when he was
telling them something so amusing that it seemed safe to count upon
a strict attention from all his hearers, she looked over at Mr. Judd
and found his eyes fixed earnestly upon her face. It was a look so
serious, of such infinite melancholy that, in surprise, her own glance
involuntarily lingered for a second. He at once turned his eyes in
another direction, and she felt angry with herself for having given him
even so slight a testimonial of her interest. Although a trivial episode,
it served to increase the existing hostility and to strengthen an heroic
resolve. This resolve was to impress upon him, kindly but clearly, the
impossibility of a serious respect on her part for a person of such
unenviable repute. Later, when the two older men went up into the
library to settle some dispute concerning a date, he came over and
seated himself in a chair nearer her own, but also facing the fire.
“Your ears must have tingled this evening, Mr. Judd.”
“Ah, has Mr. Fettiplace been giving me away?”
“On the contrary; he is a stanch friend of yours.”
“Indeed he is, but it might require an exceedingly skilful friend to
throw a favorable light on such a subject.”
“How delightfully modest! I assure you he gave you an excellent
character.”
“Did you think it a wilful deception, or that he was simply mistaken?”
She turned and saw upon his face an amused smile, half triumphant
yet good-humored. She lowered her eyes to the bronze ornament on
the table that was slowly revolving between her fingers. “Am I so
incapable of believing good of others?”
“Certainly not! But when I saw you last I suffered from an unpleasant
belief that neither the Devil nor myself were objects of your
adoration. So I took the liberty of putting one or two things together,
and decided that the faithful Bennett might have honored me by a
mention.”
“Why suspect Mr. Bennett of such a thing?”
“Well, partly because he is a vindictive and unscrupulous liar, and
partly because he is the only enemy I saw there.”
This was said gently, in his usual low voice, with perfect calmness,
and it was said amiably, as if sympathizing with an unfortunate
friend.
“You seem able to meet him on his own ground.”
“Oh, no! There is all the difference in the world.”
She looked toward him interrogatively, but with an expression that
plainly indicated a difference of opinion. He continued in the same
tone, with no sign of animosity: “The difference is this, that he tells
others what he never tells me. I tell others his mind is filthy and his
spirit is mean; that he is without honor and that he is a liar, but I also
tell him.”
“You have told him that?”
“Often: sometimes to himself alone, sometimes in the presence of
others.”
She could not restrain a smile. “It must be a pleasant thing to tell a
man!”
“A man? Oh, that would be a different matter!”
There was a barbaric simplicity in all this that she could not help
respecting, particularly as she felt he was telling the truth: and she
sympathized with him heartily in this opinion of Horace Bennett.
While openly unforgiving and vindictive, he appeared to regard his
enemy with the half-serious contempt of a gentle but experienced
philosopher. But she remembered her resolution.
“Mr. Fettiplace has been telling us about that white jacket. What an
interesting story!”
“Yes, everything he tells is interesting. He has a rare faculty in that
direction.”
“But in this case he had an unusual subject. It is like a fairy story. I
suppose you wore it some time or other?”
“I suppose so.”
“But you must remember.”
“Vaguely. I was only seven years old when I came to this country and
I never wore it here.”
“Have you even forgotten how you spilled the currant jelly down the
front?”
“Currant jelly?” he repeated, and looked inquiringly toward her. “I
have not heard that theory.”
“You were the culprit and ought to know. But strawberry is just as
bad, I suppose.”
After a slight hesitation he answered, “Those are blood-stains.”
Turning toward him for further information, she could not help
thinking how much more he was in harmony with a tale of pearls and
mystery and human blood than with jam or currant jelly. As he made
no answer but sat gazing absently at the fire, she expressed a hope
that his youthful nose had not collided with the stairs or with the fist
of some larger boy.
“No, not that exactly,” he replied, with his eyes still upon the fire. “It is
a long story and would not interest you.” Then looking up, he
continued, with more animation, “I am glad there is a possibility of
your coming to Daleford. It is an ideal place to be quiet in.”
“So Mr. Fettiplace tells us, but you are mistaken about the history of
the jacket. It would interest me, and I should like extremely to hear it;
unless of course you prefer not to tell it.”
“If you wish to hear it that is reason enough for the telling, but—isn’t
it rather cruel to force a man to talk only about himself?”
“No; not in this case. It gives an opportunity to prove, by the
perfection of your boyhood, that you are less vile than you believe
Horace Bennett to have painted you.”
“That would be impossible. No human record could wipe out an
effect once laid in by such a hand. Besides, there is nothing in the
jacket to repair a damaged reputation.”
“The fact of telling the story will count in your favor.”
“In that case I will make an effort.” He rested an elbow on the arm of
his chair, slowly stroking the back of his head as if uncertain where
to begin. “It is really a foolish thing to do,” he said at last, “but if you
are relentless I suppose there is no escape. In the first place, to
begin at the very beginning, there was a little court with arches all
around it, with grass in the centre and a fountain at each corner. On
the marble steps, at one end, we were all sitting, a dozen or more
children, watching a man with a bear and two monkeys. These
monkeys had sham fights. One was dressed like an English soldier
with a red jacket, and he always got the worst of it. It was great fun
and we all laughed.”
“Where was this?”
“In India. At the very beginning of the show, when the English
monkey for a moment was on top, a servant rushed into the court
and dragged me away. It was a barbarous deed, and I was ugly; as
disagreeable probably as Horace Bennett could have wished. So I
only lose ground, you see, by telling this story.”
“Never mind. Unless you tell it I shall believe the worst.”
“Well, looking back as I was dragged along, the last thing I saw was
the red monkey being chased and beaten by the white one, and they
scrambled right up the bear’s back. In the chamber where we went
that white jacket was brought out and I made another row, for I knew
it meant a long and tiresome performance in which I had to keep still
and behave myself.”
“A performance on a stage?”
“No; in a large room, with lots of people standing about. As our
procession started for the big hall, which was several rooms away on
another side of the house, I noticed that my uncle and one or two
others kept closer to me than usual. There was a tremendous haste
and confusion, and everybody seemed excited.”
In telling his story Mr. Judd spoke in a low voice, pronouncing his
words clearly and with a certain precision. His only gesture consisted
in occasionally drawing a hand slowly up the back of his head, as if
finding solace in rubbing the short thick hair in the wrong direction.
Although his voice and manner suggested an indolent repose, she
noticed that the brown hands, with their long fingers, were hard and
muscular, and were the hands of a nervous temperament.
“When we entered the large hall there were lots of people, mostly
soldiers, and in uniforms I had not seen before. The principal person
seemed to be a short, thick-set man with a round face and big eyes,
who stood in the centre of the room, and his wide sash and odd-
looking turban with gold scales interested me tremendously. We all
stood there a few minutes and there was a good deal of talk about
something, when all of a sudden this man with the handsome turban
seized me under the arms with both hands, lifted me up, and handed
me to a big chap behind him.
“Then came a free fight, a general commotion, with shouting and
rushing about, and sword-blades in the air. A friend tried to pull me
away, but the big man who held me laid his head open with a blow. A
second later the big man himself received a cut from my uncle at the
base of his neck, where it joins the shoulder, that made him stagger
and turn half about: then he tumbled to the floor and held me all the
tighter as he fell. As we landed I came on top, but he rolled over and
lay across me with his head on my stomach. He was so heavy that
he held me down and the blood poured from his neck over my white
clothes.”
Molly had stopped working. With her hands in her lap and her eyes
fixed eagerly on his face, she uttered an exclamation of horror. He
said, with a smile:
“Not a cheerful story, is it?”
“It is awful! But what happened then?”
“Well, as I struggled to get from under I saw my uncle turn upon the
first man, the leader, but he was too late. Someone gave him a
thrust, and he staggered and came down beside us. I remember he
lay so near that I reached out and touched his cheek with my finger. I
spoke to him, but he never answered.”
There was a silence, she watching him, waiting for the rest of the
story, while he gazed silently into the fire.
“And what happened next?”
“Oh, excuse me! That is about all. During the hubbub and slaughter
my people hauled me from beneath the big chap and I was hurried
away. I remember, as we ran through the chambers near the little
court, I heard my friends still laughing at the monkeys.”
He seemed to consider the story finished. “May I fool with that fire?”
he asked.
“Certainly, but what was all the fighting about?”
As the fire was encouraged into a fresher life he answered: “I never
knew distinctly. That night a few others and myself went down to the
river, through the gardens, were rowed to a little steamer and taken
aboard. We sailed down a long river, and afterward a big steamer
brought three of us to America. And then to Daleford.”
“Why on earth to Daleford?”
“Because it was desirable to land me in some amusing metropolis,
and I suppose the choice lay between Paris and Daleford. Daleford,
of course, won.”
“I beg your pardon,” she hastened to say. “My curiosity seems to be
running away with me.”
“Oh, please do not apologize. There is no secret about Daleford. I
only answered in that way as I suddenly realized how refreshing it
must be to hear a stranger tell pathetic stories about himself. It is I
who apologize. They brought me to Daleford through Mr. Judd’s
brother, who was a good friend and was with us at that row.”
He stood before the fire with the poker in his hand, and looked down
with a smile as he continued: “I believe you have never been to
Daleford, but if you were a field-mouse that could sleep all winter,
and didn’t care to be disturbed in summer, you would find it an ideal
spot. If you were a field-mouse of average social instincts you would
never pull through.”
“And yet Mr. Fettiplace advises us to go there.”
“Oh, that’s for a summer only, and is quite different.”
From Daleford they went to other subjects, but to her his own career
proved of far greater interest, and the usual topics seemed
commonplace and uneventful by comparison. Delicately and with
subtle tact, she made one or two efforts to get further information
regarding his childhood and the fabulous jewels, but her endeavors
were vain. Of himself he talked no more. In a sense, however, she
was rewarded by a somewhat surprising discovery in relation to his
mental furniture. When the conversation turned incidentally upon
literature she found him in the enjoyment of an ignorance so vast
and so comprehensive that it caused her, at first, to doubt the
sincerity of his own self-conviction. Of her favorite books he had not
read one. To him the standard novelists were but names. Of their
works he knew nothing. This ignorance he confessed cheerfully and
without shame.
“But what do you do with yourself?” she demanded. “Do you never
read anything?”
“Oh, yes; I have not forgotten my letters. For modern facts I read the
papers, and for the other side of life I take poetry. But the modern
novel is too severe a punishment. It is neither poetry nor wisdom.”
Until the two other men came down from the library she had no idea
of the lateness of the hour. Mr. Fettiplace laid a hand on the young
man’s shoulder and, with a roseate smile, explained the situation.
“This fellow is from the country, Miss Molly, and you must excuse him
for expecting, when invited out to dinner, that he is to remain to
breakfast.”
A moment or two later, as the three men were standing before the
fire, she was astonished by a bit of unexpected wisdom. He was
regarding with apparent interest a little etching that hung near the
mantel, when Mr. Cabot explained that it was a very old one he had
purchased in Germany, and represented the battle of Hennersdorf.
Mr. Judd thought it must be the battle of Mollwitz, and gave as
reasons for his belief the position of the Prussians in relation to a
certain hill and the retreat of the Austrian cavalry at that stage of the
fight. Mr. Cabot, obviously surprised at these details, replied,
jokingly, that he was not in a position to contradict a soldier who was
present at the battle.
This afforded great amusement to the rubicund guest, who
exclaimed:
“You might as well back right down, Jim! Amos is simply a walking
cyclopædia of military facts; and not a condensed one either! He can
give you more reliable details of that battle than Frederick himself,
and of every other battle that has ever been fought, from Rameses
to U. S. Grant. He remembers everything; why the victors were
victorious and how the defeated might have won. I believe he sleeps
and eats with the great conquerors. You ought to see his library. It is
a gallery of slaughter, containing nothing but records of carnage—
and poetry. Nothing interests him like blood and verses. Just think,”
he continued, turning to Molly, “just think of wasting your life in the
nineteenth century when you feel that you possess a magnificent
genius for wholesale murder that can never have a show!”
There was more bantering, especially between the older men, a
promise to visit Daleford, and the two guests departed.
IV
IN April the Cabots took their trip to Daleford and found it even more
inviting than Mr. Fettiplace had promised. The spacious house
among the elms, with its quaint old flower-garden, the air, the hills,
the restful beauty of the country, were temptations not to be resisted,
and within another month they were comfortably adjusted and felt at
home.
The house, which had formerly belonged to Mr. Morton Judd, stood
several hundred feet from the road at the end of an avenue of wide-
spreading maples. This avenue was the continuation of another and
a similar avenue extending to the house of Josiah Judd, directly
opposite, and the same distance from the highway. As you stood at
either end it was an unbroken arch from one residence to the other.
When Mr. Morton Judd was married, some fifty years ago, his father
had erected this abode for him, but the young man soon after went
to India, where as a merchant and a financier he achieved success,
and where both he and his wife now lay at rest. Although covering as
much ground, the house was less imposing than the more venerable
mansion at the other end of the avenue.
The journey beneath the maples proved such a pleasant one and
was so easily made as to invite a certain familiarity of intercourse
that the Cabots saw no good reason to discourage. Mrs. Judd, a
strong-framed woman with a heavy chin, whose failing memory
seemed her only weakness, was now about eighty years of age, and
generally sat by a sunny window in the big dining-room, where she
rocked and knitted from morning till night, paying little attention to
what went on about her. If Amos had been her own son she could
not have loved him more, and this affection was returned in full with
an unceasing thoughtfulness and care. Both Molly and her father
were gratified at finding in this young man a neighbor whose society
it seemed safe to encourage. He proved a sensible, unpretending
person, fond of fun and pleasure, but with plenty of convictions;
these convictions, however, while a source of amusement to Mr.
Cabot, were not always accepted by the daughter. They were often
startling departures from his education and environment, and
showed little respect for conventionalities. He never attended church,
but owned a pew in each of the five temples at Daleford, and to each
of these societies he was a constant and liberal contributor. For three
of them he had given parsonages that were ornaments to the village,
and as the sectarian spirit in that locality was alive and hot these
generous gifts had produced alternating outbursts of thankfulness
and rage, all of which apparently caused neither surprise nor
annoyance to the young philosopher. When Molly Cabot told him,
after learning this, that it would indicate a more serious Christian
spirit if he paid for but a single pew and sat in it, he answered:
“But that spirit is just the evil I try to escape, for your good Christian
is a hot sectarian. It is the one thing in his religion he will fight and
die for, and it seems to me the one thing he ought to be ashamed of.
If any one sect is right and the others wrong it is all a hideous joke
on the majority, and a proper respect for the Creator prevents my
believing in any such favoritism.”
Occasionally the memory of his offensive title obtruded itself as a bar
to that confidence which is the foundation of friendship, but as she
knew him better it became more difficult to believe that he could ever
have been, in its coarser sense, what that title signified. As regarded
herself, there was never on his part the faintest suggestion of
anything that could be interpreted as love-making, or even as the
mildest attempt at a flirtation. She found him under all conditions
simple and unassuming, and, she was forced to admit, with no
visible tokens of that personal vanity with which she had so lavishly
endowed him. His serious business in life was the management of
the Judd farm, and although the care and development of his
animals was more of a recreation than a rigid necessity he wasted
little money in unsuccessful experiments. Mr. Cabot soon discovered
that he was far more practical and business-like than his leisurely
manners seemed to indicate. The fondness for animals that seemed
one of his strongest characteristics was more an innate affection
than a breeder’s fancy. Every animal on his place, from the
thoroughbred horses to the last litter of pups, he regarded more as
personal friends than as objects of commercial value.
When Mr. Cabot and Molly made their first visit to the farm, they
noticed in the corner of a field a number of dejected horses huddled
solemnly together. Most of them were well beyond middle age and
bore the clearest indications of a future that was devoid of promise.
They gazed at the visitors with listless eyes, and as a congregation
seemed burdened with most of the physical imperfections of extreme
antiquity.
“What on earth are those?” asked Mr. Cabot. “Revolutionary relics?
They are too fat for invalids.”
“A few friends of my youth.”
“I should think from the number you have here that you never
disposed of your old friends,” said Mr. Cabot.
“Only when life is a burden.”
“Well, I am glad to see them,” said Molly, as she patted one or two of
the noses that were thrust toward her. “It does you credit. I think it is
horrid to sell a horse that has used himself up in your service.”
As the father and daughter walked homeward along the avenue of
maples, Mr. Cabot spoke of the pleasure the young man derived
from his animals, and the good sense he displayed in the
management of his farm.
“Yes,” said Molly, “and he seems too boyish and full of fun for
anything very weird or uncanny. But Mr. Fettiplace certainly believed
in something of that kind, didn’t he?”
“Of course, or he wouldn’t be Fettiplace. That sort of thing is always
interesting, and the world is full of people who can believe anything if
they once put their minds on it. Who is that in our yard?”
“Deacon White, I think. He has come to train up some plants for me.”
A moment later she took her father’s arm and asked, with affected
humility: “Jimsey, will you do something?”
“No, for it’s sure to be foolish.”
“Well, you are right, but you can do it so much better than I. Deacon
White has probably known Mr. Judd ever since he was a little boy,
and he would be glad of an opportunity to tell what he knows and
give us all the town talk besides. I do wish you would just start him
off.”
“Start him off! On what? Judd’s private history? On the delicate
matters he doesn’t wish advertised?”
“No, no! Of course not, papa! How unpleasant you are! I only want
him to throw some light on the mysterious things Mr. Fettiplace
alluded to.”
“I shall do nothing of the kind. If you really have a thirst for that sort
of knowledge, get a copy of Hans Andersen. He has a better style
than Deacon White.”
A few moments later, when Molly and the Deacon were alone in the
old garden, her desire for information was gratified to an unhoped-for
extent, and the information was of a more detailed and astonishing
character than she would have presumed to ask for. The Deacon, a
little, round-shouldered, narrow-chested man of seventy, with a sun-
dried face, an enormous nose, and a long receding chin with a white
beard beneath, possessed a pair of wide-awake eyes that seemed
many years younger than himself.
“I never have anything to do with roses without thinkin’ of Amos. Did
you ever notice his?”
“Yes; they are splendid ones.”
“Ain’t they! Well, one mornin’, when he was a little boy, I was helpin’
him set out roses along the side of the house where the big trellis is,
and he said he wanted red ones, not yellow ones. I said: ‘These are
red ones. They are cut from the same slip as the others, and they’ve
got to be red whether they want to or not.’ Pretty soon Josiah came
out, and Amos said to him that he could see ’em next spring and
they would all be yellow. And what took me all aback was that Josiah
believed it, and tried to persuade him that he might like yellow ones
for a change. And I tell you,” said the Deacon, as he fixed his little
young eyes on her face to watch his effect, “I just stood with my

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Essentials of Business Analytics

Business Analytics Jeffrey D. Camm

Business Analytics, 5e Jeffrey D. Camm

An Introduction to Management Science: Quantitative

Essentials of business communication Guffey

Louis D Brandeis American Prophet Jeffrey Rosen

Business Analytics James R. Evans

Practical Business Math Procedures [with Business Math

Essentials of Business Analytics: An Introduction to

Jeffrey D. Camm James J. Cochran

Michael J. Fry Jeffrey W. Ohlmann

David R. Anderson Dennis J. Sweeney Thomas A. Williams

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CHAPTER 5 Probability: An ­Introduction to

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