Climate Prediction Center

Monitoring Products

Dr. Gerald Bell

Climate Prediction Center/ NOAA/ NWS

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Camp Springs, MD

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
 Outline

1. Climate monitoring versus assessment

2. Overview of CPC climate monitoring products
3. Main monitoring products
1. Global Temperature and Precipitation
2. Drought and Soil Moisture
3. ENSO
4. Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)
5. Atlantic and East Pacific Hurricanes
6. Teleconnections
4. Summary
 Climate Monitoring versus Assessment

• Monitoring • Assessment

• Examination of daily, monthly, • Analysis of the current or past

seasonal, etc. analyses of conditions designed to aid our
atmospheric and oceanic understanding of a particular
variability climate phenomenon or event.

• Helps to identify and understand • Examples: ENSO Assessments,

current and past short-term special climate assessments,
climate anomalies seasonal climate asssessments.

• Critical for understanding and • Critical for understanding and

predictions predictions
Overview of CPC Monitoring Products
CPC home Page: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
 Overview of CPC Monitoring Products
Expert Assessments
Expert Assessments Index
Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
Weather and Climate Hazards
ENSO, Drought
Special Climate Summaries
Annual Climate Assessments
Seasonal Climate Monitoring
Overview of CPC Monitoring Products

Seasonal Climate Monitoring

Expert Assessments Index

Seasonal Climate Summaries

Seasonal Assessment, SST,

Circulation in Tropics and Extratropics,
Precipitation, Temperature, Animations
 Overview of CPC Monitoring Products
Monitoring and Data Index

Other items on page:

Drought
Soil Moisture
Snow Cover
Degree Days
Africa Maps and Data
Pacific Islands data
Forecast Performance
 Surface Temperature Monitoring
Click Daily Temperature Analysis
•Analyses in (F) and (C)

•Analyses include
Mean Temps, Max and Min Temps
Daily, 5-day, 7 day, 30 day, 90 day

•Data Stations:
River Forecast Centers ~ 2500/per day
Hydrologic Auto data System ~ 1500/ day

•Grid resolution: 0.5 X 0.5 degree

Surface Temperature Monitoring
30-day Means and Anomalies
Surface Temperature Monitoring
365-day Temperature Time Series

Click
Monitoring and Data
Temperature Time
Series
 Precipitation Monitoring
Click Daily Precipitation Analysis
 Precipitation Monitoring
Click Daily Precipitation Analysis United States

•Gridded Precipitation Analyses include

Daily, 7 day, 30 day, 90 day, 180 day,
365-day averages, month-to-date totals.

•Download gridded data

•Data Stations:
River Forecast Centers ~ 5000/per day
Hydrologic Auto data System ~ 1500/ day
Minimum of 500 stations required

•Grid resolution: 0.25 X 0.25 degree

•Quality Control:
Duplicate Station Check
Data check (buddy check, outliers
NEXRAD check for spurious zeros
 Daily Precipitation Analysis
Example of 180-day Precipitation Analysis
 Daily Precipitation Analysis
Precipitation Station Coverage
 Precipitation Monitoring
Global Precipitation Time Series’
Click Monitoring and Data Precipitation Time
Series

Click on station to get

Precipitation time series
 Precipitation Monitoring
Example of 90-day Precipitation Time Series
 Drought monitoring
Monitoring U.S. Climate Drought
Products
& Data & Data Maps
Drought Monitoring
Palmer Drought Index
 Soil Moisture

Monitoring
Index Soil Moisture
& Data

•Soil Moisture Analysis

•Outlook Maps
•Evaporation
•Runoff
•Recent Anomalies
•Recent Changes
•Climatology
•Drought Indicators
 Soil Moisture
Example of Soil Moisture Anomalies
 U.S. Drought Assessment
Home Climate Highlights Drought Assessment

Information Used to
Make Drought Outlook

•Seasonal Outlooks
•Drought data
•Drought Indicator
Blends
•Soil Moisture Data
•Precip. and Temp.
Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability
Home Climate & Weather
El Niño /La Nina MJO

•Current Conditions—Weekly Update (.ppt)

•Animations
•Weekly and Monthly Analyses
•Diagnostics Discussion
•Tutorial
 Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability

Powerpoint Presentations of latest ENSO and MJO conditions

Weekly ENSO Update

El Niño /La Nina
ENSO Evolution, Status, and Prediction Presentation

Weekly MJO Update

MJO MJO Weekly Update
 Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability

Time Series of Weekly SST

Weekly SST Anomalies Anomalies for the 4 Niño Regions
 Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability
Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Anomalies
Measures Anomalous Tropical Convection

Drier-than-average
conditions (orange/red
shading)

Time
Wetter-than-average
conditions (blue shading)

Longitude
Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability
Madden / Julian Oscillation (MJO)

200-hPa Velocity
Potential Anomalies
show MJO the best

Positive anomalies (brown

shading) indicate unfavorable
conditions for precipitation.

Negative anomalies (green

shading) indicate favorable
conditions for precipitation.

Longitude
 Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability
Subsurface Temperature Departures
in Equatorial Pacific
Ocean model creates gridded
Mid-Feb sub-surface temperature using
buoy data, sounding data from
TOGA TAO array, etc.

Early Mar

EL Niño Warming along

Thermocline, Combined with
Mid-Mar down-welling phase
of Kelvin Wave triggered
by MJO
Early Apr
Anomalous warmth in East
due to Kelvin Wave.
180 120W
 Monitoring North Atlantic and
East Pacific Hurricane Potential
Monitoring and Data Index Monitoring Atlantic
Hurricane Potential
Monitoring East. Pac.
Hurricane Potential
 Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential
Analyses are related to Monitoring key Circulation features
associated with Hurricane formation

Warmer SSTs Enhanced Tropical

Lower Vertical Wind Shear Easterly Jet (200-mb)
Higher Pressure in
and Surface Pressure Upper Atmosphere
(Red Area)
Upper-level Easterlies
Favorable African
Expand Westward
Easterly Jet
(Green arrows)

Weaker Easterly
Trade Winds (Dark
Blue arrow)
Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential
Weekly SST Departures

Very warm SSTs persist in

Tropical Atlantic
Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential

700-hPa: African Easterly Jet (AEJ)

AEJ already showing increased cyclonic shear and

weaker easterly trades. Classic signal for active Hurricane season
Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential

Area-averaged 200-hPa streamfunction anomalies

Show strength of subtropical ridge across the North
Atlantic

Orange shows enhanced

subtropical ridge.

Strong intra-seasonal
variability due to MJO is
seen.
 Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns
Monthly and Daily analyses

Monthly: Monitoring and Data Index

Northern Hemisphere
Teleconnection Patterns

Daily: Climate and Weather Teleconnections

Monthly: Patterns, Calculation procedure,

Description of 10 leading teleconnection patterns
Time Series
Associated temp and precipitation departures

Daily: Observed time series of PNA, NAO, AO.

MRF and ensemble forecasts
Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Time Series
Based on standardized 500-hPa height anomalies
Daily Monthly
Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns
MRF Model Forecasts of NAO
Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns
Ensemble Model Forecasts of NAO
 Summary

Atlantic SST Anomalies

200-hPa Velocity
Potential Anomalies