Dr. Elok Permatasari, M.Kes.

Cover Minat Biostatistik dan Kependudukan

Fakultas Kesehatan Masyarakat Universitas Jember

POPULATION GROWTH AND

PROJECTION
Cover

01 Definition, usefulness and benefits

02 Population growth and projection method

03 Projection component method

04 Data supporting components of the projection

method
 • Population growth is change in population over time or the
change in the number of individuals in a population per unit
time. Population growth means change in population size.
• The amount of growth is obtained by subtracting some earlier
population count (P1) from some later count (P2).

Population • Growth is controlled by rates of birth, death, and migration

(by subtracting immigration and emigration)
• Population Growth Rate is the rate at which the number of
Growth individuals in a population increases.
Population Growth Formula

 •If we are considering the world’s population, it can

change in only two ways: People are born into the
world, increasing the population, and people die,
decreasing the population.
• Any population (such as the world’s) in which people
cannot come or go is a closed population and can
increase or decrease only through births or deaths.

In terms of an equation :
Population Growth Formula

 •In a closed population, population growth is the

natural increase, that is, the difference between
births and deaths (B – D).
• In a open population there are four—and only four
—ways in which a geographic area can add or
subtract from its population. In this case the growth
equation is a bit more complicated:
Population Growth Rate
 The population growth rate did not simply stay stable and positive;
the growth rate itself grew through almost all of this period.

crude growth rate = crude birth rate (CBR) – crude death rate (CDR) + crude rate of net migration

Annual growth rates can change to "years to double" at that level. This is a tool to dramatize the
growth rate if extended over time. It's easy to do the conversion using this formula :

  𝟕𝟎
𝒀𝒆𝒂𝒓𝒔 𝒕𝒐 𝒅𝒐𝒖𝒃𝒍𝒆 =
%  𝒂𝒏𝒏𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝒈𝒓𝒐𝒘𝒕𝒉 𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒆
 Population Growth
The Balancing Equation
  Untuk menghitung pertumbuhan penduduk dari tahun ke tahun

Keterangan :
Pt = banyaknya penduduk akhir tahun
Po = banyaknya penduduk awal tahun
B = banyaknya kelahiran
D = banyaknya kematian
Mi = banyaknya migrasi masuk
Mo = banyaknya migrasi keluar
Population Pyramid to
Illustrate the Projection
• We can illustrate the age structure of a population with
a graph called a population pyramid, which portrays an
age-sex distribution.
• A population pyramid is essentially two back-to-back
bar graphs: one showing the number of males and one
showing the number of females.
• When we make a population projection, we can
estimate what a population will look like at some time in
the future and can make comparisons between the
pyramids
 • Population projections are calculations of future birth rate, death
rate and migration of population based on their past and present
conditions.
• A population projection specifies the future size of a population by
employing assumptions about future fertility, mortality, and
migration.
Population • They are neither predictions, nor forecasts, nor estimates. Rather
they are in between predictions and forecasts.
Projection • A “best-guess” calculation of the number of people expected to be
alive at a future date. ƒ Always based on a ‘conditional’ future.
Any projection, of course, depends
upon the fertility, mortality, and
migration assumptions employed.

Principal characteristics are age

and sex
• Dibutuhkan imajinasi untuk menilai dampak hipotetis
dari kematian, kelahiran, dan perubahan migrasi pada
struktur usia-jenis kelamin.
• Dibutuhkan piramida populasi tertentu dan
membayangkan akan seperti apa pada waktu
tertentu di masa depan jika peristiwa tertentu
diasumsikan terjadi pada proses populasinya selama
interval (Bogue, 1993; Coale, 1972; Stolnitz, 1956).
Population Projection
Usefullness
• As a basic planning : both government and non-
government
• Population projectioan serves as the starting point for
projections of future need (Planning):
• Expected number of retirements from labour force
• Required number of teacher, classroom, school
• Required number of medical personnel and facilities
• Required of housing unit, etc.
• Policy dialogue :
• Helping policymakers understand that problems exist
• Developing solutions
The • Our greatest challenge as demographers is predicting the
demographic future of countries that have begun the
Importance unprecedented transition into negative population growth.
• Modern methods of population projection specify not only future
of Population population sizes but future population structures.
• Calculations of future population for periods varying from one to

Projection thirty years, or sometimes even further ahead, are a feature of

social security planning.
Population • Population forecast is a projection in which the
assumptions are considered to yield a realistic picture of
Projection vs the probable future development of a population.
• Generally, forecasts are for short term while projections
Forecast are for long term
 Types of Population
Projection Proyeksi Total vs Regional
Proyeksi yang dibuat untuk seluruh negara disebut
proyeksi total. Jika dibuat utk suatu daerah, provinsi,
kabupaten atau kelompok etnis, disebut proyeksi
Proyeksi Penduduk Tinggi, regional atau sektoral. Proyeksi total lebih mudah
Sedang atau Rendah dibuat daripada proyeksi regional karena
keterbatasan data di wilayah
Dibuat berdasarkan asumsi tertentu yang
berkaitan dengan tingkat kelahiran, tingkat
kematian dan migrasi.
TINGGI  fertilitas tinggi, mortalitas
Proyeksi Maju vs Mundur
rendah, tingkat imigrasi tinggi dan tingkat Faktanya, semua proyeksi didasarkan pada
emigrasi rendah data masa lalu untuk populasi masa depan
SEDANG  peningkatan fertilitas,  proyeksi ke depan (maju) . Namun,
dalam kasus luar biasa tertentu, proyeksi
mortalitas dan migrasi sedang 
keberhasilan keluarga berencana dan dibuat tentang populasi masa lalu. Ini
dikenal sebagai proyeksi mundur (misalnya
layanan kesehatan
saat sensus penduduk belum dilakukan)
RENDAH  fertilitas, mortalitas dan
migrasi rendah
 Population Growth &
Projection Methods

Mathematical Methods Growth Component

• The earliest one to be used for
projection methods
• Using arithmetic or geometric inter and
extrapolation
• Estimate for short period of time
• Result : just total number of
population
• Focus on growth rate
Methods
• Component of population changes
(fertility, mortality and migration)
• Result : population by age and sex
• Cohort componen method : focus
on 2 characteristics  Age & Sex
 Mathematic Methods
Arithmetic Method
 • It is assumed that the annual change (increase or decrease) in
population remains the same throughout the projection period
and the crude birth and death rates are taken. 
• The formula :

Keterangan :
Pp = Proyeksi penduduk
Pt = banyaknya penduduk akhir tahun
P1 = Populasi sekarang sesuai sensus terakhir
P2 = Populasi pada sensus sebelumnya
n = Jumlah tahun antara tahun proyeksi dan sensus sebelumnya
N = Jumlah total tahun antara sensus terakhir dan sebelumnya.
 Mathematic Methods
Geometric Method
 • This formula is the basis of Malthus’s population projection

Keterangan :
Pp = Proyeksi penduduk
P1 = Populasi sekarang sesuai sensus terakhir
r = angka pertumbuhan penduduk
n = banyaknya tahun
GROWTH COMPONENT
METHODS

For analysis of population change,

which include the cohort-
component model used to carry
out population projections, the
life table used to compute life
expectancies and statistical
analyses of various kinds.
Cohort-Component Projection
• To project the total population size, and the number of males
and females by 5-year age groups, find the number of people
who survive or are expected to be alive in the future. 
• Use the cohort component method when population projections
by age and sex are needed for 5 years, 10 years or longer periods
of time.
• Cohort-component projection a population projection in which
each birth cohort is projected separately, resulting in a projection
of age-sex structure as well as size.

• Metode ini membutuhkan dua jenis input:

1. Angka terbaru untuk populasi berdasarkan jenis kelamin dan
kelompok usia satu tahun
2. Asumsi tentang pengembangan komponen demografis di
masa depan : fertilitas, harapan hidup, migrasi domestik,
dan imigrasi
Ketika metode komponen kohort
digunakan sebagai alat proyeksi,
itu mengasumsikan komponen
perubahan demografis, mortalitas,
kesuburan, dan migrasi, AKAN
TETAP KONSTAN selama periode
proyeksi.
ASUMSI DASAR
Asumsi pada masyarakat umum:
• Tidak ada bencana alam
• Tidak ada perubahan mendadak
dalam situasi sosial dan ekonomi
selama perkiraan atau periode
proyeksi
Asumsi tentang perubahan
demografis  Hasil estimasi atau
proyeksi populasi tergantung pada
perubahan kondisi populasi.
Data yang dibutuhkan untuk penghitungan:
Mortality :
• Age Spesific Death Rate (ASDR)
• Life Expectancies at Birth
• Survival Ratio

Fertility :
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
• Age Spesific Fertility Rate (ASFRs)
• Sex Ratio at Birth

Migration : international or internal

• Net migration rates by sex and age

Generally 3 series (variants) of projection are presented : high,

medium, and low
2010 F 2015 F
Ages 95 - 99 Ages 95 - 99
An illustration of one time step of
the cohort component method for
a female population.
Ages 30 - 34 Ages 30 - 34

Ages 25 - 29 Ages 25 - 29

Ages 20 - 24 Ages 20 - 24

Ages 5 - 9 Ages 5 - 9

https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol4/8/4-
Ages 0 - 4 Ages 0 - 4 8.pdf#search=%22cohort%20component%20projection%22
Basis data berdasarkan Data
Sensus Penduduk Kab.
Jember tahun 2010 >>>>>>
 Usia 2010 2015   𝐵𝑖𝑟𝑡h 2010 +𝐵𝑖𝑟𝑡h 2015
0-4 90.964 93.437
¿( 2 )
×5 × 𝑆𝑎𝑡 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡h × 𝑆𝑅 𝑎𝑡 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡h
5-9 97.595 96.020
10-14 102.275 92.114 ¿  𝟗𝟎𝟗𝟔𝟒 × 𝑺 𝟎 −𝟒
15-19 95.481 98.408
20-24 89.566 96.402
25-29 94.409 88.514
30-34 89.355 92.059
35-39 95.107 92.619
40-44 89.460 89.229 Survival
45-49 80.551 88.911 Ratio at
50-54 68.656 79.361 ¿  𝟗𝟓𝟏𝟎𝟕 × 𝑺𝟑𝟓 − 𝟑𝟗 Spesific 5
55-59 51.484 63.899 year age
60-64 45.203 51.717
65-69 35.032 36.716
70-74 28.907 29.386
75+ 31.467 33.782
TT 8  
 Jumlah 1.185.520  
 
¿(𝟐𝟖𝟗𝟎𝟕+ 𝟑𝟏𝟒𝟔𝟕)× 𝑺𝟕𝟓 +¿ ¿

Sumber :Data Sensus Penduduk 2010 Perempuan Kabupaten Jember

Menghitung SR at Birth terlebih dahulu
berdasarkan data penduduk usia 0
tahun (Umur Tunggal) Sensus Penduduk
Kabupaten Jember tahun 2010

https
://jemberkab.bps.go.id/statictable/2015/03/12/65
/jumlah-penduduk-kabupaten-jember-umur-tungg
al-menurut-jenis-kelamin-hasil-sp2010-.html
 Sex Ratio at Birth :
 Mid Year Population (MYL) Formula

Keterangan :
P1 = Population on 1st January
P2 = Population on 1st January next year
D = Deaths in year

 Projected Total Births : Projected population age 0 - 4

Male 0 – 4 :

Female 0 – 4 :

If, Sex Ratio at Birth = 103/100

 FEMALE 2010 2015
15-19 95481 98408
20-24 89566 96402
25-29 94409 88514
30-34 89355 92059
35-39 95107 92619
40-44 89460 89229
ASFR    
15-19 0,0331 0,0814
20-24 0,0310 0,0798
25-29 0,0327 0,0733
30-34 0,0309 0,0762  Survival Rate Formula’s :
35-39 0,0329 0,0766
40-44 0,0310 0,0738
BIRTH     Count trough life table method to find Lx
15-19 3157 8014
20-24 2778 7691
25-29 3086 6484
30-34 2765 7014  2015 Female Population of Age 0-4 :
35-39 3132 7099
40-44 2771 6589
Total Birth 17690 42891
 Projection Output
Total Fertility Mortality Growth Rate
Population Indicators Indicators
Births Death Rate of Natural Increase
Total Population Size

Child Woman Ratio Crude Death Rate Annual Growth Rate

Define Age Group

Crude Birth Rate Infant Mortality Rate Doubling Time

Sex Ratio

Dependency Ratio Total Fertility Rate Life Expectancy At Birth Migration

Gross Reproductive Rate Under Five Mortality Rate
Indicators
Median Age
Total Net International
Migration
Population at Age Mean Age of Childbearing
Cover

REFFERENCES
1. Cox, P. R. (1976) Demography Fifth Edition. United Kingdom:
Cambridge University Press.
2. Hoque, M. N., Pecotte, B. and McGehee, M. A. (2018) Applied
Demography and Public Health in the 21st Century. doi:
10.1249/mss.0000000000001652.
3. Skiadas, C. H. and Skiadas, C. (2018) Demography and health issues
population aging, mortality, and data.
4. Yaukey, D., Anderton, D. L. and Lundquist, J. H. (2007) Demography,
the study of human population. doi: December 31, 2014.
Cover

Thank You