Course Name: Probability and Statistics

Lecture One
introduction to probability and statistics
Suleiman Nur Ali Yusuf
Instructor
Department of Computer & IT
Jamhuriya University of Science and Technology (JUST)

suleimansnc@gmail.com

Fabaruay 23, 2019

 Introduction
Generally the word Probability is used in our day to
day conversation by coming across statement such
as:
 it will probably rain today.
Most probably, Aisha will stand first in the annual
Examination.
 Chance are high that the prices of diesel will go
up.
There is a 50-50 chance of Somali winning a toss
in today’s match. Etc.
 History
• For most of human history , Probability, the formal study of the lows of
chance.

• Historically Probability had its origin the gambling room.

• In 1654, a professional French gambler Chevalier de mere, Approached

the well-known 17th century French Philosopher and mathematician
Pascal regarding certain dice Problem.

• The first book on the subject written by the Italian Mathematician J.

Cardan (1501-1576).

• The title of the book was “book on Games of chance” and published in
1663.
 Cont..
• This undeveloped idea is developed by the scientists as-
Laplace, Gauss, Yuler, and James Bernoulli.

• In the 18th Century, the Probability is forming roots by

occurring as problem in pertaining to games of chance such
as throwing a die, tossing a coin, drawing cards from a pack
of cards. Starting with game of chance.

• probability today has become one of the basic tools in

Statistics and has wide range of Applications in Science,
Engineering and Social Science
 The theory of Probability

• The theory of probability is of interested not

only car dice players who were its God father
but also to all men of action, heads of
industries or heads of armies whose success
depends on Decision.
 Definition of Probability
Mathematical Definition Statistical Definition
An event happen times Probability is calculated on
and does not happen b the basis of available data
times and all ways are or frequencies or pre-
equally likely then experiences
probability of happening P = r/n
of an event will be (a/a+b) r = Relative Frequency
and probability of not
n = Number of the items
happening of an event will
be (b/a+b)
Types of Probability

THEORETICAL

RELATIVE

SUBJECTIVE
 Applications of Probability theory
Basically, the theory of Probability deals with the study of
uncertainties.
• It is used by insurance companies when they calculate
insurance premiums and the probably life expectancies of
their policy holders.

• It used by industry officials in determining the reliability of

certain equipment.

• It used by medical researchers who claim that smoking

increases you chance of gutting lung cancer.

• It is used by biologists in their study of genetics.

 Con…
• It is used by an investor who decides that a particular
stock has greater chance for future growth than any
other stock.

• It used by business managers in determining which

product to manufacture, which products to advertise,
and which media to use in advertising: Television,
Radio, newspaper, magazine and so on.

• It is used by the government economists in predicting

that the inflation rate will increase or decrease in the
future.
What is Statistics?
• “Statistics is the science of learning from data,
and of measuring, controlling, and
communicating uncertainty; and it thereby
provides the navigation essential for
controlling the course of scientific and societal
advances” (Davidian and Louis, 2012)

• “Statistics is the study of the collection,

analysis, interpretation, presentation and
organization of data”
Dodge, Y. (2006) the Oxford Dictionary of Statistical terms)
• Statistical method can be used to summarize
or describe a collection of data; this called
descriptive statistics

In addition, patterns in the data may be

modeled in a way that accounts for randomness
and uncertainty in the observations, and are
then used to draw inferences about the process
or population being studied; this is called
inferential statistics.
 Applied
Statistics

Mathemati
Theoretical
Statistics
cal
Statistics

“ Applied Statistics” contains descriptive statistics and the Application of inferential

Statistics,

“Theoretical statistics” consists of logical arguments underlying justification of

approaches to statistical inference.

“Mathematical Statistics” contains the manipulation of probability Distribution necessary

for driving results related to methods of estimation and various of computational
statistics and design of experiments.
 Role of Statistics
• “Statistics is the grammar of science”
Karl Pearson

• “if your experiment needs statistics, you

ought to have done a better experiment..”
Ernest Rutherford
Why Study Statistics
• Knowledge in statistics provides you with the necessary
tools and conceptual foundations in quantitative
reasoning to extract information intelligently from this sea
of data.

• Statistical method and analyses are often used to

communicate research findings and to support
hypotheses and give credibility to research methodology
and conclusions.

• It is important for researchers and also consumers of

research to understand statistics so that they can be
informed, evaluate the credibility and usefulness of
information, and make appropriate decisions.
Thanks for your attentions!