BURSA MALAYSIA

KURSUS
DUNIA SAHAM
- KOMPREHENSIF 2 -
INSTRUMEN
PELABURAN
ALTERNATIF
 Opsyen yang memberi hak untuk
melanggan sesuatu saham asas
pada harga tertentu, kuantiti
tertentu dalam tempoh masa
tertentu.
CIRI–CIRI
 Harga lebih rendah dari
saham
 Arah aliran mengikut
harga saham
 Tiada dividen/faedah
 Tiada hak mengundi
 Harga pertukaran
(conversion price)
 Tempoh matang
 American style
 European style
 In the money
 At the money
 Out of money
Faktor Penentu Nilai

1) Nilai Intrinsik 2) Nilai Masa

Harga Saham
vs Tempoh Matang
Harga Pertukaran

In The Money Out Of Money

At The Money
 P<S
Dimana ; P = harga pertukaran
S = harga Saham
Jika; P = 3.00, S = 3.90
Maka;
3.00 < 3.9
 P>S
Dimana; P = harga pertukaran
S = Harga Saham
Jika; P = 3.00, S = 2.50
Maka;
3.00 < 2.50
 Apakah objektif anda membeli warran?

 Untung modal di pasaran? tarikh matang

in the money
 Hak melanggan saham? at the money
out of money
CIRI–CIRI
 Harga lebih rendah dari
saham
 Arah aliran mengikut
harga saham
 Tiada dividen/faedah
 Tiada hak mengundi
 Harga pertukaran
(conversion price)
 Tempoh matang
 American style
 European style
 In the money
 At the money
 Out of money
 Waran Waran Panggilan
 Diterbitkan oleh pihak  Diterbitkan oleh pihak
pertama. ketiga.
 Tempoh matang lebih  Tempoh matang lebih
panjang pendek
 Melibatkan dilution  Tidak melibatkan
dilution
 Pertukaran saham  Pertukaran tunai
 Sekuriti pinjaman yang boleh ditukar kepada saham pada
kuantiti tertentu, harga tertentu dan tempoh tertentu.

Stok pinjaman boleh ditukar

(Convertible loan stocks)
 2 jenis
Stok pinjaman tidak boleh ditukar
(Non convertible loan stocks)
Ciri–Ciri
 Harga lebih rendah dari saham
 Ada kadar faedah untuk pemegang
 Arah aliran mengikut harga saham
 Tempoh matang
 Harga pertukaran
Stok pinjaman
 In the money
boleh tukar
 Out of money
o Real Estate Investment Trust, atau
o Amanah Pelaburan Hartanah
o Definisi  Sekuriti atau dana yang dilaburkan dalam
bidang hartanah
o Diterbitkan oleh syarikat @ pihak pertama
o Kaedah penerbitan sama seperti saham  IPO
o Membayar dividen kepada pemegang REIT
o Kaedah dan kos urusniaga sama seperti saham
o 16 REIT di bursa saham
Definisi;

Satu sekuriti atau dana yang merangkumi

sekumpulan saham dan didagangkan dipasaran
saham .
Ciri–Ciri;

 Mirip kepada amanah saham

 Diterbitkan oleh bank pelaburan/pengurus dana
 Pergerakan harga mengikut harga kumpulan saham
berkenaan
 Urusniaga dan struktur kos sama seperti saham
 Membayar dividen kepada pemegang ETF
 STRATEGI
PELABURAN
 Strategi
(1) (4)
Growth Momentum
Strategy (2) (3) Strategy
Contrarian Value
Strategy Strategy
Growth Strategy
 Menumpukan pada growth stock.
 Membeli pada PE @ harga yang tinggi @ meningkat.
 Kadar pertumbuhan syarikat lebih tinggi daripada kadar
pertumbuhan industri.
 EPS sedang meningkat  harga lebih tinggi
 Industri/sektor;
 Sarung tangan getah (rubber glove)
 Perubatan/penjagaan kesihatan (medical/healthcare)
 Teknologi
 Growth Strategy
Price

Jual

Beli

Month
Contrarian Strategy
 Act against the crowd
 Beli ketika pasaran terlebih jual (oversold)  buy on
weakness
 Jual ketika pasaran terlebih beli (overbought)  sell on
strength
 Strategi jualan  mengikut peratus
 ketika harga mulai lemah
 Average down  beli secara berfasa.
 Pelaburan jangka pendek, sederhana, panjang.
 Contrarian Strategy
Price

Beli
Jual

Volume
Contrarian Strategy

Buy Pa rkso n o n sha re p ric e we a kne ss

Thursday, 28 January 2010 09:17

UALA LUMPUR: Hwang DBS Vickers Research says PARKSON HOLDINGS BHD []’s share price weakness is a
buying opportunity. Its share price has fallen from its recent high of RM6.20 to RM5.51 currently.

“Maintain Buy and RM6.30 TP (RNAV -derived),” it said on Thursday, Jan 28.

Its said the sell-down – which might be due to China’s credit tightening initiatives – is excessive as there is still
strong growth potential in China’s huge retail sector.

The December 2009 monthly data showed a 17.5% jump y-o-y (vs Nov 2009’s 15.8%) in retail sales.

Hwang DBS Vickers Research said an added positive is Parkson’s strong balance sheet (RM226 million net cash
at end-September 2009) and healthy free cash flow (RM370 million in FY11F).

Foreign interest is returning with 25.4% foreign shareholding in Nov 2009 (versus a low of 20% in early 2009).

“Separately, the discount of Parkson’s market cap to its share of HK-listed Parkson Retail Group’s market cap has
narrowed to 30% from a one-year high of 40.5%, but is still above its historical average of 25%. This suggests
Parkson may continue to outperform Parkson Retail Group,” it said.
Value Strategy
 Berasaskan kepada kriteria fundamental.
 Act against the crowd  contrarian
 Beli di bawah nilai  harga < nilai intrinsik
 Jual di atas nilai  harga > nilai intrinsik
 Pelaburan jangka panjang
 Value Strategy - Timing
Price Sell

Buy
Intrinsic
Value

Month
Value Strategy
 Bagaimana mencari nilai intrinsik?
 NTA, book value, NAB, NAV antara rujukan paling asas.
 Cash flow model, dividend growth model.
 PE x EPS

Kajian kes >> AXIATA

Momentum Strategy
 Market oriented  follow the trend
 Buying price at X% higher from recent lowest price
 Buy high, sell higher  hit and run
 Buy higher , sell when the price turn around
 Volume start increasing  buying interest sign
 Selling at uptrend price or X% lower from recent highest
price
 Focus to the hottest stock  high volume
 Short term player - intraday & contra player
 Willing to take losses  fix the losses
 Buy
Momentum Strategy Sell
Price C2
C3
B2 B3 C1
A2 A3 B1

A1

Volum
e
Strategi Mengikut Objektif
 Menilai saham : fundamental & potensi

 Menetapkan % keuntungan @ harga jualan

 Menetapkan tempoh pegangan

 Menjual mengikut mana yang terlebih dahulu

 Pegang atau Switch

Switch
 Menjual saham yang sedia ada, membeli saham

berpotensi.
 Alasan;

 Harga tidak meningkat selepas beberapa tempoh.

 Memegang saham terlalu lama.
 Prestasi yang buruk – PN17
 Switch
Published: 2010/05/24

Switch to Genting Plant, sell Sime: CIMB

Investors should sell Sime Darby Bhd and “switch” to Genting
Plantations Bhd to gain exposure to the Malaysian plantation
sector, according to CIMB Investment Bank Bhd analyst Ivy Ng Lee
Fang. - Bloomberg
 Switch

Warren Buffet's changes to his US$59bil

stock portfolio
Tuesday November 17, 2009

OMAHA, Nebraska: Billionaire Warren Buffett's company has bought a nearly US$60 million stake in
Exxon Mobil, and has cut holdings in oil rival ConocoPhillips.

Berkshire Hathaway also nearly doubled its holdings in Wal-Mart Stores during the latest quarter.

Omaha-based Berkshire disclosed the changes to its US$59.7 billion U.S. stock portfolio in a Securities
and Exchange Commission filing Monday.

During the quarter ended Sept. 30, Berkshire Hathaway bought nearly 855,000 shares of Exxon Mobil.

Its stake in ConocoPhillips was cut from more than 64 million shares at the end of June to more than
57 million.

Berkshire Hathaway's stake in Wal-Mart now stands at 33.6 million shares, up from nearly 20 million. -
AP
 Pengambialihan & Penggabungan (M & A)
 Privatisation
 Krisis Dalaman/Pengurusan
 Peristiwa Luaran  cth: 11 Sept, selsema
burung, H1N1,
Bencana Alam.
 Projek /Kontrak Baru
 Penjualan Aset  Projek Air Selangor
 PN17
Line a r surg e s o n RM1.6b c o ntra c t
Wednesday, 30 December 2009 09:27

KUALA LUMPUR: Share price of LINEAR CORPORATION BHD [] surged 29.5 sen to 48 sen in
early trade on Wednesday, Dec 30 after it secured a RM1.66 billion project a district cooling plant in
Manjung, Perak.

At 9.22am, it was up 29.5 sen to 48 sen with 2.81 million shares done.

The FBM KLCI fell 1.38 points to 1,273.84. Turnover was 40.19 million shares valued at RM32.17
million.

On Tuesday, it announced its unit LCI Global Sdn Bhd had secured the project awarded by
Seychelles' Global Investment Group Inc for the 350,000 refrigeration ton (RT) plant. The plant was
for the King Dome project, but details were not revealed in the announcement.

The duration of the project will be 24 months from the date of commencement, it said.
Monday, 9 November 2009

Transocean Jumps On Take Over Plan

KUALA LUMPUR: Shares of Transocean surged past the RM1 offer price for each share of the company
ahead of a takeover by chairman and managing director Datuk Mohd Nadzmi Mohd Salleh.

At 9.50am, the share price was up 15.5 sen to RM1.02 with 1.7 million shares done.

The FBM KLCI rose 4.64 points to 1,265.4. Turnover was 177 million shares valued at RM133 million.

Last Friday, Nov 6, Nadzmi launched a takeover of the loss-making logistics company by offering RM1 per
share. The takeover of Transocean will be undertaken by Kumulan Kenderaan Malaysia Bhd (KKMB), which
is controlled by Nadzmi.

Transocean share price surged 21 sen to 86.5 sen on Friday, Nov 6 before it was suspended at 3.41pm.
Monday, 16 November 2009 09:40
Affin surg e s o n po ssibility o f me rg e r with HL Ba nk
Written by Joseph Chin

KUALA LUMPUR: Shares of Affin Holdings rose on speculation that the Guoco Group may look into a merger
between HONG LEONG BANK BHD [] and Affin Bank Bhd.

At 9.27am, Affin was up 20 sen to RM2.54 with 1.7 million shares done. Affin-WC rose five sen to 20 sen with
18.4 million units done.

The Edge weekly reported Guoco is believed to have put out feelers to gauge the possibility of raising ringgit
funding in the domestic capital market. It was earlier reported that Guoco was busy accumulating shares in
Bank of East Asia.

The report said speculation is rife of a merger between Hong Leong Bank Bhd and Affin Bank Bhd, in which
Bank of East Asia owns 20.5%.
 TAWARAN
AWAM
PERMULAAN
INITIAL PUBLIC OFFER @ IPO
Definisi
 Tawaran saham awal kepada awam
sebelum disenaraikan.
Proses Penawaran & Penyenaraian
Permohonan & Menerbitkan
Kelulusan Dari SC Prospektus/Borang

Penghantaran Langganan Orang

Penerimaan Awam

Pengundian Penyenaraian
Objektif
1. Menjana dana syarikat daripada orang
awam;
 mengembangkan operasi perniagaan
 Menyelesaikan hutang
Objektif
2. Memudahkan penjanaan dana seterusnya melalui
terbitan baru;
a. Waran
b. Stok Pinjaman (Loan Stock)
c. Terbitan Hak (Right Issue)
Objektif
3. Meningkatkan nilai dan profile syarikat;
1. memudahkan sokongan kewangan dari
institusi kewangan dan pelabur.
Cara Pengagihan

1. Tawaran Jualan (Sales Offer)

2. Peruntukan Khas (Special Offer)
3. Tawaran Awam (Public Offer)
 Borang
Cara memohon ATM
Internet
 Bezakan antara;

Sebelum memohon IPO

 Prospektus

Objektif IPO
Jenis & model perniagaan
Rekod keuntungan & kewangan
Rancangan perniagaan
AMALAN KORPORAT
(CORPORATE EXERCISE)
Definisi
 Saham yang diterbit dan ditawarkan
kepada para pemegang saham yang sedia
ada pada harga dan nisbah tertentu.

 Opsyen bukan obligasi

(option not obligation)
Opsyen
1. Melanggan hak

2. Mengabaikan hak

3. Menjual hak (PAL)

X Right Price
Ratio : 3 for 10
Existing shares : 1000 @ RM5.50  = RM5,500
New shares : 300 @ RM3.00 = RM900
No. of shares : 1300 @ value = RM6,400

Ex-rights price = RM6,400.00/1,300 shares

= RM4.92
X Right Price
How much you may gain by selling the rights?
 ex-rights price - rights issue price
= RM4.92 - RM3.00
= RM1.92
Definisi
 Saham percuma diberikan kepada para
pemegang saham yang sedia ada pada
nisbah tertentu.
Objektif
 Kecairan
 Ganjaran
Kesan
 Harga  jatuh
 Jumlah saham  meningkat
 Nilai saham  tidak berubah
 Dividen  meningkat
X Bonus Price
Ratio : 1 for 1
Existing shares : 1000 @ RM5.50  = RM5,500
New shares : 1000 @ RM0.00 = RM0.00
No. of shares : 2000 @ value = RM5,500

Ex-rights price = RM5,500.00/2,000 shares

= RM2.75
X Bonus Price
Ratio : 1 for 3
Existing shares : 3000 @ RM5.50  = RM16,500
New shares : 1000 @ RM0.00 = RM0.00
No. of shares : 4000 @ value = RM16,500

Ex-rights price = RM16,500.00/4,000 shares

= RM4.125 @ RM4.12
 Before X date
15/7/2010
Closed price = 14.48

X date
16/7/2010
X price = 7.24
X Bonus Price  Elsoft
Ratio : 1 for 2
Price before x-date: RM2.06
Existing shares ?
New shares ?
No. of shares ?

Ex-rights price ?
Definisi
 Memecahkan saham dan nilai par
mengikut nisbah tertentu.
 Contoh :
>> Nisbah @ 2 : 1 (2 for 1), maka,
Setiap 1 saham akan menjadi 2.
Objektif
 Menjadikan harga lebih murah dan mampu
dibeli oleh kebanyakan pelabur.
 Meningkat kecairan di pasaran saham.
Kesan
 Kuantiti meningkat mengikut nisbah.
 Harga turun mengikut nisbah.
 Nilai par turun mengikut nisbah.
 Nilai saham yang dipegang tidak berubah.
Kesan
 Contoh;
Pecahan saham @ 2 : 1
Nilai par @ RM1.00
Harga pasaran @ x-date : 3.00

Kuantiti Sebelum30,000
15,000 Selepas
Harga 3.00 1.50
Nilai saham 45,000 45,000
Nilai par 1.00 0.50
Definisi
 Menyatukankan saham dan nilai par
mengikut nisbah tertentu.
 @ reverse stock split.
 Contoh :
>> Nisbah @ 1 : 2 (1 for 2), maka,
Setiap 2 saham akan menjadi 1.
Objektif
 Mengurangkan jumlah saham yang
diapung (outstanding shares).
Kesan
 Kuantiti menjadi kurang mengikut nisbah.
 Harga lebih tinggi mengikut nisbah.
 Nilai par lebih tinggi mengikut nisbah.
 Nilai saham yang dipegang tidak berubah.
Definisi
 Syarikat membeli sahamnya sendiri di
pasaran saham.
 Saham yang dibeli menjadi treasury share.
Objektif
 Mengurangkan jumlah saham yang
diapung (outstanding shares).
 Meningkatkan harga saham pada masa
akan datang.
KESAN
 EPS akan meningkat.
 Harga pasaran akan cenderung meningkat.
KATEGORI SAHAM
Saham Pertumbuhan (Growth Stock)
Saham Bertahan (Defensive Stock)
Saham Kitaran (Cyclical Stock)
Saham Pendapatan (Income Stock)
Saham Mewah (Blue Chip Stock)
Saham Pertumbuhan (Growth Stock)
 Kadar pertumbuhan lebih tinggi daripada kadar
pertumbuhan purata industri.
 EPS
 Jualan
 Keuntungan
 Pertumbuhan 2 angka & 3 tahun berturut-turut.
 Kadar dividen yang rendah
Saham Pertumbuhan (Growth Stock)
Saham Bertahan (Defensive Stock)
 Berkeupayaan untuk memberi dividen secara konsisten
tanpa mengira situasi pasaran dan ekonomi.
 Ekonomi meleset  prestasi mengatasi
prestasi pasaran.
 Ekonomi mengembang  prestasi di bawah prestasi
pasaran
 Votaliti yang rendah < 1
 Sektor utiliti  air, elektrik
Saham Bertahan (Defensive Stock)

Pertumbuhan

Kemesetan

Harga
Kitaran ekonomi
Saham Kitaran (Cyclical Stock)
 Pergerakan harga mengikut pergerakan ekonomi.
 Harga meningkat dengan kadar yang lebih tinggi ketika
ekonomi sedang meningkat.
 Harga menurun dengan kadar yang tinggi ketika
kejatunan ekonomi
 Sektor automobil, hartanah
Saham Kitaran (Cyclical Stock)
Saham Pendapatan (Income Stock)

 Harga stabil @ votiliti rendah

 Dividen Bayaran secara konsisten
Kadarnya lebih tinggi dpd purata pasaran,
simpanan tetap, inflasi dll
 Interaktif kepada perubahan kadar faedah
 Sektor makanan dan perubatan
Saham Mewah (Blue Chip Stock)
 Syarikat yang kukuh dgn permodalan pasaran yang besar.
 Asas kewangan yang kukuh.
 Keupayaan membayar dividen tanpa mengira keadaan
ekonomi.
 Berkaitan index.
 Kaunter  TNB, Maxis, Digi, Nestle
 KATEGORI SAHAM
&
KITARAN EKONOMI
 Kitaran Ekonomi
Pertumbuhan Kemerosotan Pemulihan & Pengukuhan
ekonomi
Puncak Kemelesetan Puncak

+ve

-ve
 Kitaran Ekonomi

Puncak
Beli Jual

Saham kitaran
Saham pendapatan
Saham blue chip
 Kitaran Ekonomi

Kemerosotan
Beli Jual

Saham kitaran
Saham bertahan Saham blue chip
Saham pendapatan
 Kitaran Ekonomi

Kemelesetan
Beli Jual

Saham kitaran Saham pendapatan

Saham blue chip
Saham bertahan
 Kitaran Ekonomi

Pemulihan & Pengukuhan

Beli Jual

Saham kitaran
Saham blue chip
Saham pendapatan
 TYPE OF Downtrend Sideway
TRENDLINE trend

Uptrend
Close
price
HOW TO BUILD
TRENDLINE?
 Resistance

CHANNEL
TRENDLINE

Support
Sell

Buy
TP2

TP1
S1
S2
S1
S2
FUNCTION OF
TRENDLINE
Resistance

Support
Close
price
 A3A4
B
5

A B
Close 2 4
price B
3

A
B
1
B 2
Buy and sell point
Buy and sell point
Buy and sell point
Over React
Price

Over React
Price
Over react
price
Stochastic Oscillator (SSO)
COMPONETS
%K
%D

Lower line

Center line Upper line

Stochastic Oscillator (SSO)
SIGNALS
Stochastic Oscillator (SSO)
SIGNALS
%K
%
D

Sell

Buy
Buy
Stochastic Oscillator (SSO)

HORIZONTAL LINE CROSSING

Stochastic Oscillator (SSO)
OVERBOUGHT & OVERSOLD

Overbought
Oversold
Stochastic Oscillator (SSO)
Stochastic Oscillator (SSO)

Leading signal?
Trendline
Diverge/Converge

Sell

Buy
Buy
Stochastic Oscillator (SSO)
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Relative Strength Index (RSI)