Exxon Risk Tolerance

Strategies for Understanding and Addressing
Risk Tolerance
January 2011
Presented by:
D.J. (Dave) Fennell
Senior Safety Advisor, Imperial Oil Resources
Senior Technical Professional –Safety, ExxonMobil Production Company
On behalf of:
ExxonMobil Human Factors Center of Excellence
Dave Fennell, Imperial Oil Resources Downloaded from www.avhf.com

10 Factors Influencing Risk Tolerance
Strategies for Reducing Risk Tolerance
Actions to Address Risk Tolerance at Your Worksite

Risk Perception and Tolerance Model
Maturity of Supporting Tools at ExxonMobil
Tools in place and

being used,
Hazard Identification “See it”
effectiveness may
lack in some areas
Mature safety culture will be

functional on this topic,
Risk Perception “Understand it” some areas will require more
effort to understand the
consequences of hazards.
Approaches for addressing

tolerance are general weak
Risk Tolerance “Accept or Reject it”
across the company, this is
the focus of this
presentation.
Root Cause Analysis Flow Chart
Incident,
Incident, Near
Near Miss
Miss or
or Questionable
Questionable Item
Item Occurs
Occurs –– Why?
Why?
Personal
Personal Factors
Factors Job
Job Factors
Factors 8.
8. External
External Factors
Factors
1. Lack of skill or knowledge 5. Lack of or inadequate procedures
6. Inadequate communication of expectations

regarding procedures or standards
2. Doing the job according to procedure
or standards takes more time and effort
7. Inadequate tools or equipment (availability,

condition & use; workplace design)
3. Short-cutting the procedure or
standards has been tolerated
Develop follow up actions

4. In past, not following procedure or
standards did not result in an incident
Implement follow up actions
Verify and validate follow up actions

Conventional Operations (Sept 3 2009)
RCAF Category Category Count
7. Inadequate Tools or Equipment 301
4. In the Past, No incident occurred 282
1. Lack of Skill or Knowledge 253
42%
6. Inadequate Communication 191
3. Short-Cutting the standard has been Tolerated 148
2. Correct Way Takes More Time/Effort 137
5. Lack of or Inadequate Procedures 30
8. External Factors 24
Grand Total 1366

Cold Lake Operations (Sept 3 2009)
RCAF Category Category Count
7. Inadequate Tools or Equipment 349
1. Lack of Skill or Knowledge 330
4. In the past, no incident occurred 288
40%
6. Inadequate Communication 244
2. Correct Way Takes More Time/Effort 177
3. Short-Cutting the standard has been Tolerated 152
5. Lack of or Inadequate Procedures 44
8. External Factors 13
Grand Total 1597

10 Factors That Influence Risk Tolerance
1. Overestimating Capability/Experience ↑
2. Familiarity with the Task ↑
3. Seriousness of Outcome ↓
4. Voluntary Actions and Being in Control ↑
5. Personal Experience with an Outcome ↓
6. Cost of Non-Compliance ↓
7. Confidence in the Equipment ↑
8. Confidence in Protection and Rescue ↑
9. Potential Profit & Gain from Actions ↑
10. Role Models Accepting Risk ↑
Hazardrecognitionandrisktolerance
Hazard Recognition and Risk Tolerance
Hazard Recognition = Risk Tolerance

January 2009

IOR Employees are generally quite good at Hazard
Recognition
2008 Safety Perception Survey
• “Do employees understand the hazards of the
operations they perform?” - 92%
• “Do you initiate action to correct hazards?” - 99%
• “Did you receive adequate safety training?” - 92%

• JSA often identifies the hazard
• Hazard is discounted or no follow
through on the mitigation



Factors Influencing Risk Tolerance
1) Overestimating Capability/Experience
“I can lift 75 kg in the gym ... I can lift this nitrogen bottle”
“I have driven in worse conditions than this and did just fine”
Strategies for Reducing Tolerance

• Reflect on your role as a mentor – the person who is watching may not
have the same skill, experience or capability.
• Acknowledge that despite your ability, the exposure is still there.
• Acknowledge that the capability or skill may be sufficient and then
reinforce the way that it should be done.


2) Familiarity with the Task - Complacency
“He had done this task 500 times “We had stack about 200 of them “I do it about 10 times every day”
without hurting himself” when ...”

• ‘Situational Awareness’ – Treat every time like the first time .... ‘Stop and
Think’
• ‘What could go wrong this time?’
• ‘How would I teach a new person to do this?’
• ‘Do I still do it by the book? Have I just been luck?’

3) Seriousness of the Outcome
‘Pinch Point’ ... what about ‘Crush’ or ‘Amputation’ point
Cable suddenly tightened and

IP’s hand became trapped between cable and wench
“Sweet gas” ?? drum.

“Hot Water” ??
• Stop and Think “How bad could it be? No, really ...How bad could it
be?”
The Event:
While backing a truck/trailer onto a barge, the
Signaler Pinned by Truck driver lost sight of the deckhand who was
providing direction.
The driver continued to move the trailer back
after losing sight of the signaler - pinning the
signaler's legs between the back of the trailer
and a toolbox on the deck.
The deckhand suffered soft tissue injuries to
their legs (luckily, no broken bones)
The Learning:
The driver of the truck did not stop when losing
sight of their signaler.
The signaler put themselves in the line of fire
after losing eye contact with the driver.
Several fatalities occur in Alberta each year
where drivers have backed over their signalers.
Deckhand pinned here The standards in the Safety Management
System (Section 6 Subject 11 Page 6-91) state:
Drivers must:
• stop if they lose sight of a signaler
Actions:
Ensure all drivers:
- understand the standards for
signalling,
- understand their responsibility to
maintain eye contact with their signaler
- understand the consequences of
not strictly adhering to this standard.



4) Voluntary Actions and Being in Control
Key factor in off the job risk – 28 times more likely to be hurt off the job

• Integrate ‘Stop and Think’ into your personal activities



5) Personal Experience with an Outcome
If you have seen a serious outcome, you will be less tolerant of the risk
Problem: As Incident Rates improve, fewer people will have had
personal experience and leads to Scepticism

• ‘Expert observers’, supervisors, ‘keepers of the corporate memory’ have
the obligation to ensure workers know :
a) Incidents have occurred because of not following that standard (i.e.
What could go wrong?)
b) Demonstrate that there have been serious consequences (i.e. How bad
could it be?) Downloaded from www.avhf.com
Dave Fennell, Imperial Oil Resources
Well Servicing Fatality - May 2002
A well servicing worker was fatally injured when he was pulled into the
rotating draw works by the strap on his fall arrest harness.
1) Loose clothing and personal protective equipment around rotating
equipment
2) Equipment guarding
Straps caught here
Draw works guard rail

Re-enactment of how
straps were caught


6) Cost of Non Compliance
Greater cost of non compliance lowers risk tolerance
Aviation industry – Low risk tolerance, strictly regulated, high
cost of non-compliance.

• Identify the cost of non compliance and increase it where necessary
• Remove barriers and increase reward for compliance



7) Confidence in the Equipment
“Ladder is twice as stable, therefore ... ”
• 1995 US Study – Cars with ABS have more accidents, no safety gain
with airbags because drivers became more aggressive.
• Parachuting – Failure to deploy replaced with late deployment

• Training on limitations of the equipment and engineering
• Stop and Think ... What will happen if it does fail?


8) Confidence in Protection and Rescue
•British study – workers with back belts tend to lift greater weights

• Understand the limitations of protection & rescue measures
• See them as ‘last lines of defence’, or ‘not to be relied upon’ ?
• “Every job should be able to be done safely by a 65 year old with a bad
back and ...” Howie Dingle



9) Potential Profit and Gain from Action
• US Highways Study – deaths on highways tracks directly with the
economy
• Alberta WHS – fatalities and lost time incidents in the oil patch increase
and decrease with the price of oil.

• Remove rewards for risk taking
• Eliminate barriers to doing it the ‘right way’


10) Role Models Accepting Risk
• When Role Models in a work group accept a certain level of risk, they
influence the decisions to accept risk by other members of the group.

• Identify and address the risk takers immediately (including yourself – where
are you on the ‘risk-taking’ scale?)
• Recognize ‘Erosion of Standards’ and address immediately
What Could Go Wrong?
1) Review the serious incidents that have happened in the past
and learn from these incidents
• Coach workers on how to recognize new hazards
• Recognize potential consequences of those hazards
• Reduce the tolerable level of risk
• Calibrate others so their judgement is at the same lowest
acceptable level of risk

How Bad Could It Be?
2) Use ‘safety conversations’ (LPO, Stop and Think, Safety
Meetings) to increase awareness on potential outcomes.
• Keep the ‘corporate memory’ alive
• Risk is impacted by the number of ‘Barriers’ between
actions and outcomes

What can I do about this?
2) Follow up on the ‘Personal Risk Behaviours’ identified at
Fresh Start:
a) Hold safety meeting discussions (or one on one during
LPO’s) on what they identified and their progress
b) Ask workers to share their identified personal risks and
commitments to change at safety meetings. (Start by sharing
yours).
c) Continue to use the ‘Personal Risk’ Stop and Think
cards with the expectation of identifying another personal at
risk behaviour

“Together with our contractors we can create
the safety culture that lowers Risk Tolerance”

Exxon Risk Tolerance

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Strategies for Understanding and Addressing

Dave Fennell, Imperial Oil Resources Downloaded from www.avhf.com

Strategies for Reducing Risk Tolerance

Actions to Address Risk Tolerance at Your Worksite

Dave Fennell, Imperial Oil Resources Downloaded from www.avhf.com

Tools in place and

Mature safety culture will be

Approaches for addressing

1. Lack of skill or knowledge 5. Lack of or inadequate procedures

6. Inadequate communication of expectations

7. Inadequate tools or equipment (availability,

Develop follow up actions

Verify and validate follow up actions

Dave Fennell, Imperial Oil Resources Downloaded from www.avhf.com

RCAF Category Category Count

7. Inadequate Tools or Equipment 301

4. In the Past, No incident occurred 282

1. Lack of Skill or Knowledge 253

3. Short-Cutting the standard has been Tolerated 148

2. Correct Way Takes More Time/Effort 137

5. Lack of or Inadequate Procedures 30

Grand Total 1366

RCAF Category Category Count

7. Inadequate Tools or Equipment 349

1. Lack of Skill or Knowledge 330

4. In the past, no incident occurred 288

2. Correct Way Takes More Time/Effort 177

3. Short-Cutting the standard has been Tolerated 152

5. Lack of or Inadequate Procedures 44

Grand Total 1597

Dave Fennell, Imperial Oil Resources Downloaded from www.avhf.com

Hazard Recognition and Risk Tolerance

Hazard Recognition = Risk Tolerance

Dave Fennell, Imperial Oil Resources Downloaded from www.avhf.com

Dave Fennell, Imperial Oil Resources Downloaded from www.avhf.com

• “Do you initiate action to correct hazards?” - 99%

• “Did you receive adequate safety training?” - 92%

Dave Fennell, Imperial Oil Resources Downloaded from www.avhf.com

Dave Fennell, Imperial Oil Resources Downloaded from www.avhf.com

Dave Fennell, Imperial Oil Resources Downloaded from www.avhf.com

Dave Fennell, Imperial Oil Resources Downloaded from www.avhf.com

Strategies for Reducing Tolerance

2. Familiarity with the Task ↑

Dave Fennell, Imperial Oil Resources Downloaded from www.avhf.com

Strategies for Reducing Tolerance

Dave Fennell, Imperial Oil Resources Downloaded from www.avhf.com

Cable suddenly tightened and

“Sweet gas” ?? drum.

Dave Fennell, Imperial Oil Resources Downloaded from www.avhf.com

4. Voluntary Actions and Being in Control ↑

Dave Fennell, Imperial Oil Resources Downloaded from www.avhf.com

Strategies for Reducing Tolerance

Dave Fennell, Imperial Oil Resources Downloaded from www.avhf.com

5. Personal Experience with an Outcome ↓

Dave Fennell, Imperial Oil Resources Downloaded from www.avhf.com

Strategies for Reducing Tolerance

Straps caught here

Draw works guard rail

Dave Fennell, Imperial Oil Resources Downloaded from www.avhf.com

Dave Fennell, Imperial Oil Resources Downloaded from www.avhf.com

Strategies for Reducing Tolerance

Dave Fennell, Imperial Oil Resources Downloaded from www.avhf.com