Lecture 11: “Chapter 10:

Climate change:
Causes, consequences,
and solutions after
2000”

CCGL9042 Evolution of Civilisation

Dr. Larry Baum & Dr. Jack Tsao
Song 1 Song 2
 Turning points
• The last lecture showed that “turning
points” often aren’t.
• Today I’ll discuss yet another “turning
point”, climate change, and you can
evaluate it.
• I’ll also briefly discuss Africa.

Tongariro National Park, New-Zealand

 Note on The
Rational Optimist
• Ridley published it in 2010.
• Some things changed since then, and
some of his statements are subjective.
• These slides take precedence over The
Rational Optimist.
 Opinion before
lecture
How much do you personally worry
about global warming?
A. A great deal
B. A fair amount
C. Only a little
D. Not at all
 Climate Change
• In 1896, Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius
hypothesised doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide
would increase global surface temperature by 5-6
degrees Celsius.
• Economic development and prosperity for 150 years
since the Industrial Revolution driven largely by fuels
such as coal, oil, gas.
• Energy use driven by economic growth causes pollution
and accelerates climate change.
• Economist William Nordhaus published in 1982 “How
Fast Should We Graze the Global Commons?”
Businesses and countries that pollute do not
immediately face the full cost of their actions, hence
raising awareness and coordinating collective action was
difficult.
• In 2006, Nicolas Stern estimated cost of climate change
could be as much as 20% of a nation’s GDP. Svante Arrhenius (1859 – 1927)
Chemist, Nobel Prize Winner 1903
An Inconvenient Truth (2006)

Movie/book drew much attention

to global warming.
 An Inconvenient
Sequel: Truth to
Power (2017)

https://youtu.be/huX1bmfdkyA
(2:32)
 Climate change theory and questions
Theory Questions
1. Humans are burning fossil fuels that 1. Is CO2 level rising from fossil fuel burning?
add CO2 to the air. What will level be?
2. The resulting greenhouse effect will 2. How much has Earth warmed already?
warm the Earth. How much will it warm?
3. Harm will outweigh good. 3. What will be the net effect?
4. We should take action. 4. Are there solutions that will cause more
good than harm?
Carbon dioxide

https://scied.ucar.edu/carbon-dioxide-absorbs-and-re-emits-infrared-radiation
 Greenhouse effect
• Sunlight heats the ground or sea,
which gives off infrared light.
• Much infrared light goes into space.
• CO2 absorbs and re-emits infrared
light,
• keeping it bouncing around the
atmosphere a while.
• Infrared light heats things.
• If CO2 doubles:
If CO2 were visible
•https://i.imgur.com/YsoWgkw.gifv
 Is CO2 rising?
How it’s measured
– Air bubbles in ancient ice
– Directly from air since
1958
CO2 level now
– ~50% above pre-industrial
level.
– Rising ~0.5%/yr
Is CO2 rising?
 Is it due to fossil fuel burning?
• Amount of fossil fuel used is consistent
with CO2 added to atmosphere.
• CO2 level slightly higher in N. hemisphere,
where most fossil fuel burned.
• O2 level falling.
• Carbon isotope ratios in CO2 consistent
with those in fossil fuels.
• Therefore, YES.
• This figure is optional:
Fossil fuel contribution to CO2

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Global_Carbon_Emissions.svg
 What will CO2 level be?
800
• Definitely higher, but we
don’t know how much 700
• Here are 2 scenarios: 600
– Halving rate of CO2

CO2 (parts per million)

emission: ~60% 500
– Freeze in rate of CO2 400
emission: ~90%
300
• Reality could be even
higher or lower. 200
100
0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Halving Freeze
Also other gases
About ¼ of warming
• Mostly CH4 (Methane): traps 28 times more
heat than CO2
• Some N2O (Nitric Oxide)

Solutions:
• Livestock nutrition (Probiotics, Algae)
• Selective breeding of low methane
• Decrease consumption of meat
• Lab grown meat
 How much has Earth warmed
already?

• Not easy to tell because

temperature variation over place
and time much more than man-
made warming
• Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) formed
How much has Earth warmed already?
 How much will Earth warm?
• For levels that I guessed: 2.5-
3.5°C by 2100.
• CO2 stays in atmosphere a
long time, so warming
continues until fossil fuel
burning stops.

http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/
Temperature
over human
history

https://xkcd.com/1732/
 What will be the net effect?
Good Bad
• CO2crop growth • Heat crop growth
• Rain some places where good • Rain in placesstorms and floods
• Rain some places where bad • Rain in placesdroughts and fires
• Storm frequency • Storm severity
• Cold stressdeath • Heat stressdeath
• Northwest Passage transport cost (to 2:17) • Sea levelcost to move cities
• Many other effects • CO2sea acidityextinctions
• Sea oxygenextinctions
• Land climate changeextinctions
• Heatozonedeath
• Many other effects

https://www.nap.edu/read/12877/chapter/11#161
 Crop growth
• It’s complex!
– CO2 good, heat bad.
– Also effects on weeds, water, etc.
 Sea level
• Major causes
– Heat expands water.
– Glaciers melt.
• Rate of rise
– 2 dm over the last century https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Holocene_Sea_Level.png

– 3-10 dm rise predicted in 21st century

– Compare to 8 ka ago: ~8 m / ~5 centuries
• Cost depends on rise.
• To move or protect exposed property,
several hundred billion US$ for 5 dm rise.
• Rise will continue centuries after CO2
emissions stop.

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
 Pre-industrial pH: ~8.25
Sea acidity
• Shells
• Shells (3:59)
– Some may grow better.
– More may grow worse.
• Compare to previous event
– A mass extinction many Ma ago
– Acidification at only 1/10 of the
current rate
– Surface life: OK
– Deep life: major extinctions

https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/daviz/projected-change-in-global-ocean#tab-chart_1
 Hydrogen sulfide poisoning?
• Peter Ward: Global warming mass extinctions
– https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yINoJNA1SGs (3:39)
– Global warming in previous mass extinctions. Maybe the cause?
– Theory:
1. Global warming heats polar regions more than tropics because tropics already as hot as
they can get.
2. Ocean currents stop.
3. Seas lose oxygen.
4. Anaerobic bacteria thrive and release hydrogen sulfide. (Black Sea)
5. Animals are poisoned.
– We don’t know whether global warming might do it again.
– Maybe we should take action to insure against this possibility.
Electricity and Greenhouse Gases

Let’s take a quiz.

Electricity and Greenhouse Gases
https://play.kahoot.it/v2/?quizId=6dc4ab72-fcab-475a-84db-fa79bfa2cb0a
 Sources
• Electricity generation
– Burning fossil fuels
– Making CO2: coal>oil>gas
• Agriculture
– Cutting forests to grow plants
and animals
– Energy to make fertilizer
– Animals
•  greenhouse gas emission than
plants for each gm food
• CH4 from cow burps
– Making CH4, N2O, and CO2
 Sources
• Transportation
– Burning oil
– Making CO2
• Manufacturing
– Burning fossil fuels for heat
– Steel: reacting coal with rust
– Cement: decomposing
limestone
– Making CO2
 No sector dominates
• Even if all vehicles electric
OR all electricity renewable,
won’t solve the problem.
• Need to change several
sectors for big effect.
 Mitigation
• Eat less meat.
• Use cleaner cement (video: 1:50) or
wood instead.
• Use electric vehicles.
• Use renewable energy.
• Conserve energy.
• Protect forests.
• Burn gas instead of wood.
• Spray sulfuric acid into
stratosphere (to reflect sunlight
into space).
 Is mitigation cost-effective?
Mitigation Cost-effectiveness
• Use renewable energy. • Low when Ridley wrote The Rational Optimist, but
now often similar to fossil fuels.
• Use electric vehicles. • Low then, but now often similar to fossil fuels.
• Conserve energy. • High, in some situations.
• Use cleaner cement. • High, in some situations.
• Eat less meat. • High, in some situations.
• Protect forests. • High, in some situations.
• Burn gas instead of wood. • High because health also benefits.
• Spray sulfuric acid into stratosphere. • High, but won’t stop sea acidification.
Bottom line: if you search worldwide, you can find cost-effective solutions, but if you
insist on them in a particular place, it may be expensive. Put solar panels where it’s
sunny, wind turbines where it’s windy, and mass transit where it’s crowded.
 Is mitigation cost-effective?
• You may ask, “Well, what’s • Why?
the answer? Yes or no!” – Warming hard to quantify
• Sorry: – Cost-effectiveness of
solutions hard to quantify
– Effects very hard to quantify
• So what can we do?
1. Do what’s cheap.
2. Check whether it’s enough.
 How can we motivate mitigation?

• Carbon dividend
– Everyone gets equal rights to pollute.
– People may sell their rights.
– Benefits individuals: addresses income
inequality.
– Companies must buy rights for fossil fuels
sold or burned.
– Or government can own and sell the rights:
carbon tax.
• Energy efficiency mandates
• Renewable energy mandates
• Electric vehicle mandates
 Some mitigation done
• Carbon neutrality
– Individuals: bought carbon offsets to plant trees or buy renewable energy
– Companies: built much solar and wind power (examples: https://www.there100.org/)
– Governments: cities and countries pledged carbon neutrality
• Norway and Uruguay by 2030
• Austria and Iceland by 2040
• European Union, Japan, New Zealand, Australia, Hong Kong, and South Korea by 2050
• China by 2060 (Ecological Civilisation)
• Carbon tax or emission trading
– Some regions and countries
– Companies developed to collect waste greenhouse gases, plant trees, etc.
• Government energy mandates
– Required renewable energy
– Required vehicles to use less fuel or be electric
 Adaptation
• Build sea walls.
• Retreat from sea.
• Retreat from floodplains.
• Recycle water.
• Desalinate water.
• Use fertilizer & pesticides.
• Move vulnerable species.

Wikimedia Commons
 Review

Very confident
Theory Questions
1. Humans are burning fossil 1. Is CO2 level rising from fossil fuel
fuels that add CO2 to the air. burning? What will level be?
2. The resulting greenhouse 2. How much has Earth warmed
effect will warm the Earth. already? How much will it warm?
3. Harm will outweigh good. 3. What will be the net effect?

Not so confident
4. We should take action. 4. Are there solutions that will cause
more good than harm?
What should we do?
• Nothing?
– Since we’re not confident, some say do nothing.
– But we always act with incomplete information.
• Something?
– Actions that we’re most confident will help
– Actions that are most cost-effective
o Compared to alternatives
o But hard to judge cost-effectiveness since effects very
uncertain
Compared to
alternatives
• Bjørn Lomborg: Global priorities
– https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dtbn
9zBfJSs
(0:24-16:49)
– Copenhagen Consensus assesses climate
change action as lower priority than
health action.
– Depends on their estimates of effects and
costs to mitigate them
 Turning points
• Many “turning points” are false…
• Except those that aren’t.
• Sometimes things will turn out fine.
– Some systems tend toward equilibrium.
– Trends fade.
• Sometimes things don’t turn out fine.
• Need to separate emotion from
evidence to separate imagined from
real turning points.
 Africa
• Briefly:
• Poorest continent
– Fastest pop. growth
– Lowest lifespan
• Improving quickly
– Economies growing
– Vast low-productivity farmland. Why is this good for
future?
• Bright future
• But it can use much help now.
– Health aid: vaccines, anti-mosquito, micronutrition
– Trade
 Priorities
• If we prioritize, what
will we choose to do?
– Current problems
– Future problems
 Current problems
• If we value everyone equally, poorest get priority.
• Do what helps most people for least money.
– Give Well: https://www.givewell.org/
• Rates most effective charities
• Example: Against Malaria Foundation ~HK$30,000/life saved
– About the lowest cost for individual donation to save a life
– Just guesstimate, but can compare with everything else
– Global Fund: https://www.theglobalfund.org/
• Malaria, tuberculosis, and AIDS prevention and treatment
• ~HK11,000/life saved by large donors
– CEA: https://www.centreforeffectivealtruism.org/
– CC: http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/
 Future problems
• Difficult to assess risks
• Make best guesses and do
cheapest things first.

– https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/

– https://futureoflife.org/

– https://www.cser.ac.uk/
Opinion after lecture
How much do you personally worry
about global warming?
A. A great deal
B. A fair amount
C. Only a little
D. Not at all
The End