Trust and Information During Hurricane Ike

Robert Prestley , John Nielsen-Gammon , Eric Berger

1,2 2 3

Department of Meteorology, Penn State University

1

2
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University
3
The Houston Chronicle

Introduction Results Definitions

Hurricane Ike devastated the Galveston, •Rating scale: 1 = “very full of hype”, 5 =
Information Sources Among Regret/No Regret and Evacuee/Non-Evacuee Popu-
Texas region in September 2008. The storm lations “very trustworthy”
was well forecast and potential damage to •Rating average: mean of rating scores for all
60%
the Galveston area was made clear through sources that a respondent said they used in
49% 50%
“certain death” warnings. However, many 50% 47%48% 47% making their evacuation decision
42%
who lived in mandatory evacuation zones 40% 38% 40% 38%
decided to stay put anyway. This study 31% 30%
33%
Conclusions
examines the ways in which information 30% 27%
23% 23%23%
•NHC/NWS, TV reports, and newspapers
sources and trust played a role in the 20% 16% 18%
13%12% 14% were the main sources of information
evacuation process during Hurricane Ike. 10% 7%
10% 10%
•Those who regret their evacuation decision
0% Public officials NHC/NWS TV reports Newspapers Friends, neighbors, etc Other used NHC/NWS less and TV reports more
than those who didn’t
Trust Ratings by Source •Evacuees used public officials more and
Used Sources are Trusted More than
Non-Used Sources NHC newspapers less than non-evacuees
4.60 NWS
•Respondents trusted the sources they used
4.47
and the sources they planned on using in
4.40 Newspapers future storms
4.20 •Regret in regards to evacuation decision had
4.20
Rating Average

Local officials
an effect on a respondent’s trust in the
4.00
Friends, neighbors, etc information sources they used, while
3.80 evacuation difficulty and damage to
Main Questions 3.62
TV stations
home/neighborhood did not
•How do information sources affect the 3.60
State officials
decision to evacuate?
3.40
3.29 National network news
•Do respondents use the sources they
trust? 3.20 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

•What affects trust in an information 3.00

Very trustworthy Somewhat trustworthy Okay Somewhat full of hype
Past Future Very full of hype
source?
What Affects Trust?
Survey 4.60
Used Source Rating Average

4.40
A survey was created by Eric Berger, a 4.26 4.22 4.21 4.25
science blogger for the Houston Chronicle, 4.20 4.17 4.18 4.15 Acknowledgements
in order to give an informal view of the 4.00 3.96 Funding for this project was provided by the National
efficiency of the evacuation process during 3.80 Science Foundation, grant AGS-1156896. This
research was completed during the 2015
Hurricane Ike. Questions asked about the 3.60
Atmospheric Science in the Gulf Coast Region
logistics of evacuation, which information 3.40 Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU)
sources were used, and how much trust 3.20 summer program at Texas A&M University in College
respondents had in them. The survey 3.00 Station, TX. Galveston sea wall picture courtesy The
Evacuation Difficulty Damage to Neighborhood
accumulated nearly 4100 responses in the Regret No Regret Houston Chronicle. Bolivar Peninsula picture
10 days following Ike’s landfall. Better Worse About the same courtesy NWS HGX and Galveston County OEM.