TRANSPORTATION PLANNING

AND ENGINEERING
TE-501
Trip Generation Analysis
Lecture #4

PROF. DR. ENGR. TAHIR SULTAN

Department of Civil Engineering, University College of
Engineering & Technology, BZU Multan
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 Trip Generation
 Process of determining the number of trips that will
begin or end in each traffic zone within a study area
Each trip has two ends.

 Described in terms of trip purpose or whether the

trips are either produced by a zone or attracted to a
zone
 Trip Generation
 Trip Purposes
Home-Based Work (HBW, H2W, W2H)
 Trips between home and work
 Home-Based Other (HBO, H20, O2H)
 Trips between home and other places such as shopping or
recreation
Non-Home Based (NHB, W2O, O2W, O2O)
 Trips that do not involve the home
 Trip Generation
 Purpose is to establish relationships between variables
that predict the amount of traffic a part of land will
produce or attract
 Data may be aggregated at zonal level or at household
level
 Based on characteristics of the trip-makers
 Age, gender, income, auto ownership, etc
 Trip Generation

• Trip generation is the process of determining the number of

trips that will begin or end in each TAZ within a study area.
• It is the first step of the four-step modelling procedure and is
very important since it sets up:
i. The framework for the following tasks, and also
ii. The controlling values such as the total number of
trips generated in the study area by location and trip
purpose.
 Trip Generation (contd.)
Trip?
 A trip, for the purpose of analysis, is defined as a one-way movement from
an origin to a destination.

Origin Destination
 Each trip has two ends, and these are described in terms of trip
purpose, or whether the trips are either produced by a traffic zone
or attracted to a traffic zone.

 For example, a home-to-work trip would be considered to have a

trip end produced in the home zone and attracted to the work
zone.
 Trip Classification
• Urban travel demands are made up of a number of different trip
types that have specific spatial and temporal characteristics.
• The first level of trip classification, used normally, is a
broad grouping into,
• Home based trips; trips that have one trip end at
a household
• Non-home based trips; e.g. trips b/w work
place and
shopping area, business trips b/w two activity centres, etc.
 Trip Generation Analysis
• Two types of trip generation analysis are carried out, and these are
referred to as,
• Trip production analysis, and
• Trip attraction analysis
 Trip Generation Analysis
(contd.)
• The term trip production refers to the trips generated
by residential zones, where these trips may have trip
origins or trip destination.

• The term trip attraction is used to describe trips

generated by activities at the non-home end of trips.
 Trip Classification

Total Trips = 8
4 trip ends are produced at zone 1
6 trip ends are attracted to zone 2
2 trip ends are produced at and 4
trip ends are
attracted to zone 3.
 Trip Generation
What is Predicted?

Trip generation models predict so called TRIP ENDS for each zone

The trip ends maybe classified as either

 ORIGINS and DESTINATIONS (O-D)

or

 PRODUCTIONS and ATTRACTIONS

The two sets of terms sound similar but there is a technical difference
 Origins and Destinations
Residential
1

Non-residential
8
A worker leaves Zone 1 in the morning Non-residential
to go to work in Zone 8
Residential
This results in 2 trip ends:
• One Origin for Zone 1
• One Destination for Zone 8
Total Number of Trip Ends
When that same worker leaves Zone 8 in
the evening to go to home to Zone 1 Zone 1: 2 Trip Ends (1 O, 1 D)

Zone 8: 2 Trip Ends (1 O, 1 D)

This results in another 2 trip ends:
• One Destination for Zone 1
• One Origin for Zone 8
 Productions and Attractions
Residential
1

Non-residential
8
A worker leaves Zone 1 in the morning Non-residential
to go to work in Zone 8
Residential
This results in 2 trip ends:
• One Production for Zone 1
• One Attraction for Zone 8
Total Number of Trip Ends
When that same worker leaves Zone 8 in
the evening to go to home to Zone 1 Zone 1: 2 Trip Ends (2 Productions)

Zone 8: 2 Trip Ends (2 Attractions)

This results in another 2 trip ends:
• One Production for Zone 1
• One Attraction for Zone 8
 Origins and Destinations??
Productions and Attractions??

Based on the convention of trip generation models

Origins and Destinations are defined in terms of the direction of the trip

Productions and Attractions are defined by the land use

Residential Land use PRODUCES trip ends

Non-residential land use ATTRACTS trip ends

This is a useful distinction because of how trip

generation models are
typically developed
 Modeling Productions and Attractions

Residential
1

Non-residential
For example, Trip Ends for Zone 1 would be
reported as
1. 1000 Production Trip Ends
2. 500 Attraction Trip Ends

Trip generation models typically model separately, i) residential trip production, ii) non-
residential trip attractions
 Factors affecting Trip Generation—
Personal Trips (Production)

 income
 car ownership
 household structure
 family size
 value of land
 residential density
 accessibility
 Factors affecting Trip Generation—
Personal Trips (Attraction)

 office space
 commercial space
 educational space
 number of employees
 type of employment (e.g., government, retail,
industrial)
 Trip Generation Analysis
• Simply, trip generation analysis has two functions:

• The goal of trip generation models for internal passenger trips is to

estimate total number of ‘trip ends’ for each purpose generated in
each traffic zone based on socio-economic and/or land use data
for the respective zones.
• To use the relationship to estimate the number of trips generated
at some future date under a new set of land use conditions.
 Trip Generation Analysis (contd.)
• This task can be accomplished with either aggregate or disaggregate
models.
• For aggregate models the total number of trips (trip ends) generated
in a zone is used as the dependent variable.
• For disaggregate models trips made by a household (or a business
establishment) is used as the dependent variable. When using
disaggregate models the trip ends generated by households, and/or
any other trip generating units such as business establishments, in a
zone are combined to produce the zonal (total) value.
 Trip Generation Analysis (contd.)
1. Cross-Classification
disaggregate models
2. Rate Based Analysis

3. Multiple Regression Analysis – aggregated model

 Trip Rate Analysis Method of Trip Generation

Trip-Rate Analysis
Trip rate is estimated on characteristics of the trip
generators with in the zone. Production rates
are determined using the characteristics of the
residential land uses and attraction rates using the
characteristics of the nonresidential land uses

Example

The characteristics of the trip generator is given in 1000 SQ. FT.

And the trip generation rate for each generator is given as TRIPS PER 1000 SQ. FT.

For example
Residential: Total 1000 Sq. Ft. = 2744 1000 sq. ft., Trip Gen. Rate = 2.4 trips/1000 sq.ft
TOTAL NO. of TRIP from residential land use = 2744*2.4 = 6586 Trips
 Trip Rate Analysis

 Determine the average productions and attractions of a

trip generator
 ITE Trip Generation Handbook
 rates by land use
 based on 1000 sf, employees, students, dwelling units, etc
 Need to determine whether the generator or the
adjacent street controls volumes generated
 Why?
 Cross-Classification Analysis

• Most traffic analysis zones are tend to contain a mixture of

social and economic classes of people.
• The use of regression equations, based on aggregated
measures of zonal characteristics, tend to submerge important
characteristics of travel demand.
• Hence, a number of transportation planners have proposed
that this difficulty may be overcome by the use of households,
rather than traffic zones, as the basic unit of trip making.
 Cross-Classification Analysis
(contd.)

• Thus, the trip-production modelling technique, which is based on

the household and its characteristics, is known as Category
Analysis (CA), or Cross-Classification Analysis.
• It is simply a technique for estimating the trip production
characteristics of households, which have been sorted into a
number of separate categories according to a set of properties
that characterise the household.
 Cross-Classification Analysis
(contd.)

• The first step is to develop a relationship between

socio- economic measures and trip production.
• The two variables most commonly used are average income
and auto ownership.
• The results of CA, for a hypothetical case, as example,
is shown in the following table:
 Cross-Classification Analysis
(contd.)
• Information of the type considered in the table may be
translated easily into zonal trip production estimates.
• The number of households within each traffic zone, i.e.
expected to fall within each cell of the matrix, are
estimated and multiplied by the trip rate and these
products, summed up, will give the zonal trip
production.
 Trip Generation
Cross-classification Model
Total Home-Based-Non-Work Trip Rates
Persons per
Household
Type of Area Vehicles per HH 1 2,3 4 5+
High Density 0 0.6 2.1 4.6 7.0

1 1.5 3.0 5.5 7.9

2+ 1.8 3.4 5.9 8.3

Low Density 0 1.0 2.5 5.0 7.4

1 1.9 3.5 6.0 8.4

2+ 2.3 3.9 6.4 9.0

 Trip Generation
Base Year Demographics
Number of Households in Target Year
Persons per Household
Type of Area Vehicles per HH 1 2,3 4 5+
High Density 0 100 200 100 100

1 200 300 200 100

2+ 100 200 100 200

Low Density 0 50 100 100 100

1 100 200 100 100

2+ 100 100 100 10

 Trip Generation
Base Year Demographics
Number of Trips in Target Year for Each HH Type
Persons per Household
Type of Area Vehicles per HH 1 2,3 4 5+
High Density 0 60 420 460 700

1 300 900 1100 790

2+ 180 680 590 1660

Low Density 0 50 250 500 740

1 190 700 600 840

2+ 230 390 640 90

Number of Trips = trip rate*no. of HH = 0.6 * 100 = 60 Total trip = 13,080

 Regression Analysis
Regression Analysis:
Commonly used in determining trip generation
Used to predict dependent variable using the independent
variable(s)
 Regression Analysis
• Single variable linear regression analysis
• Uses one independent variable to predict trip generation
rate
• Multiple linear regression analysis – Uses two or
more independent variables to predict trip generation
 Regression
Analysis
• Regression analysis is study of relationship
between one variable Y, called the dependent
variable, and (several) others Xi, called the
independent variables.
 Regression Analysis and Transportation

• To estimate ridership levels of public transportation

• To estimate traffic management system performance
• To predict crashes on interchange and non-interchange
segments of roads
• To forecast travel demand
• To develop integrated land use models
 Types of Regression
Linear regression produces the slope of a line that best fits a

single set of data.

Multiple regression is the analysis of more than one set of

data, which often produces a more realistic projection.

Simple Linear Regression Analysis
 Assume that observations of the magnitude of a dependent variable
Y have been obtained for n magnitudes of an independent variable
X.
 An equation of the form

 Ye = a + bX

 is to be fitted to the data. Where,

 Ye = predicted scores values) of the dependent

(estimated variable, Y
 a = intercept constant
 b = regression coefficient
 Least-square Criterion

Yd

Y
Y = a + bX

X
Simple Linear Regression Analysis

Ye = a + bX

The magnitude of ‘b’, can be estimated

The parameter ‘a’ can be estimated

Where,

= the means of the X and

Y observations
 Objectives of Regression
Analysis

 The primary goal is to determine the best set

of
parameters such that the model predicts
bi=n,
experimental values of the dependent variable as
accurately as possible (i.e. calculated values ye
should be close to experimental values y).
Accuracy and Validity of Regression Model

There are many pieces of information in the Excel regression output

but the following four items will give a quick read on the validity of the

model.

1) Overall Regression Equation’s Accuracy

(R Square and Adjusted R Square)

2) Probability That This Output Was Not By Chance

(ANOVA – Significance of F)

3) Individual Regression Coefficient and Y-Intercept

Accuracy

4) Visual Analysis of Residuals

(1) Overall Regression’s Accuracy
• R2 – It is the ratio of the sum of squares explained by the
regression to the total sum of squares, and is known as the
coefficient of determination, and is usually denoted by
the symbol, R2.
• It is the most important number of the output. R2 informs
how well the regression line approximates the real data.
This number tells you how much of the output variable’s
variance is explained by the input variables’ variance.
• The value of R2 is given as
 Ratio of Sum of Squares
∑y2 = ∑yd2 + ∑ye2
Where,

∑y2 = total sum of squares of the deviations of the Y

observations about the mean value.
∑y 2 = sum of squares of the deviations of the Y observations from
d

the regression line

Small ∑y 2 considered to fit data well
d

∑y 2 = the sum of squares of the deviations of the

e

estimated value of Y (Ye) about the mean value.

 Explanation of R2

 The ratio R2 may assume a magnitude b/w 0 and 1.

 For a regression for which R2 = 1, no variation
 When R2 = 0, no relationship
 Ideally, the value should be at least 0.6 (60%) or
0.7 (70%).
 The square root of the coefficient of determination
is
termed as correlation coefficient.
 2 & 3) F value and P value

 Significance of F – This indicates the significance

of the model.
 P-value of each coefficient and the Y-intercept.
This indicates the importance and significant of
each variable in the model.
 4) Visual Analysis of Residuals

• The residuals are the difference between the

Regression’s predicted value and the actual value
of the output variable.
• You can quickly plot the Residuals on a scatterplot
chart. Look for patterns in the scatterplot.
 Regression Analysis
Single Variable Regression Model:
Y= a + bX + e
Where:
Y = dependent variable (number of trip ends) X
= independent variable (predictor variable) a, b
= coefficients of the regression model
e = error in prediction

Multiple Regression Model:

Y = a + b1X1 + b2X2 + b3X3 +…..+ bnXn+e
Where:
Y = dependent variable (number of trip
ends)
X1,X2,..Xn= independent variables
(predictor variables)
a, b1,b2,…bn= coefficients of the
regression model e = error in prediction
 Multiple Regression Analysis

Multiple Regression Analysis is based on trip generation as a

function of one or more independent variables. The approach is
mathematical and all of the variables are considered random,
and with normal distributions.
 Checks to
Apply
1. R2 0 to 1

2.Se < Sd Se=measure of variability through standard error

3. Se=measure of variability through deviations

4. t
calculated
> t table
value
Checks to
Apply
 Example of Trip Production
Analysis
Develop a trip production equation and calculate all relevant
statistics to check validity of the equation using the following
data: Average HH Size Average Trip/Day
2 5
3 7
4 8
5 10
6 10
 LAB WORK 5
Number Trips at Different
Trip Generators

50
 Traffic count at 4 Intersection

Find out Trip Generation Patterns at Trip Generators.

1. Production Zones
2. Attraction Zones

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 LAB WORK 5
System Descriptive Model
Traffic Counts at Closed Loop
(Real Time Problem)

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 Traffic count at 4 Intersection

Draw Traffic counts and total inflows and outflows of

the transportation network covering following
intersections.

1. Garhi Shahu Intersection

2. Butt Sweets Intersection
3. Queen Marry Intersection
4. Cakes and Bakes Intersection

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 Any
Questions

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