TERMS USED IN ELECTRICAL LOAD PREDICTION

Average Load (AL) – the mean of all the demands that have occurred during the day,
the month or the year.

𝐴𝐿𝑑𝑎𝑦 =
∑ 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑓 𝑡h𝑒 𝑑𝑎𝑦
24

𝐴𝐿𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑡h =
∑ 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑓 𝑡h𝑒 𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑡h
24( 30)

𝐴𝐿 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 =
∑ 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑓 𝑡h𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
24 (365)

Note: One day has 24 hrs. One month has an average of 30 days while one year has an average of 365 days,
unless otherwise specified
 Load Factor (LF)- ratio of the average load (AL) to the peak load (PL)
𝑨𝑳
𝑳𝑭 =
𝑷𝑳
Note: Peak Load-highest or biggest load that occurred during the day, the month or the year.

Demand Factor (DF)- ratio of the peak load (PL) to the connected load (CL)

Note: Connected load-sum of all installed or connected to the system

Pant Capacity Factor (PCF)-ratio of the annual energy delivered by the station to the energy
that the station can generate or produce in a year.
𝑨𝒏𝒏𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒈𝒚 𝒊𝒏 𝒌𝑾 −𝒉𝒓 .
𝑷𝑪𝑭 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓 =
𝑰𝒏𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒍𝒍𝒆𝒅 𝒄𝒂𝒑𝒂𝒄𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒊𝒏 𝑲𝑾 𝒙 𝟖𝟕𝟔𝟎
Note: for one year, unless otherwise specified a standard assumption of 365 days or 8760 hours shall be used.

Plant Use Factor (PUF) – ratio of the annual energy delivered by the station to the
actual energy that the station had generated in a year
𝑨𝒏𝒏𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒈𝒚 𝒊𝒏𝒌𝑾 − 𝒉𝒓 .
𝑷𝑼𝑭 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓 =
𝑰𝒏𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒍𝒍𝒆𝒅 𝒄𝒂𝒑𝒂𝒄𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒊𝒏 𝑲𝑾 𝒙 𝑵
where: N=number of hours the plant or station is in operation in one year
Example.1
A power station has annual factors as follows: Load factor=50%, capacity factor=40%,
use factor=45%. The power station has a maximum demand of 18 MW. Determine
plants annual energy production?
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑘𝑊 − h𝑟 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝑳 𝒐𝒂𝒅 𝑭𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒐𝒓 =
max 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝑘𝑊𝑥 8760
𝑘𝑊 −h𝑟 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
0.50=
18000 𝑥 8760
Example.2
In problem no.1 determine the difference between reserve capacity and the peak load.

𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑘𝑊 − h𝑟 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑛1 𝑦𝑟
𝑃𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟=
𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑥 8760
6
78.84 𝑥 10
0.40=
𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑥 8760
6
78.84 𝑥 10
𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦= =22500 𝑘𝑊 =22.5 𝑀𝑊
0.40 𝑥 8760

𝐷𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒=22.5 −18=𝟒 . 𝟓 𝑴𝑾
 Example.3
In problem no.1 determine the number of hours per year the plant is not in service.
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑘𝑊 − h𝑟 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛1 𝑦𝑟
𝑷𝒍𝒂𝒏𝒕 𝑼𝒔𝒆 𝑭𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒐𝒓 =
𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑖𝑛𝑘𝑊 − h𝑟 𝑥 𝑛𝑜 .𝑜𝑓 h𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠 𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
6
78.84 𝑥 10
0.45=
22500 𝑥 𝑛𝑜 .𝑜𝑓 h𝑟𝑠 . 𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
6
78.84 𝑥 10
𝑛𝑜 . 𝑜𝑓 h𝑟𝑠 . 𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛= =7787 h𝑟𝑠
22500 𝑥 0.45

h𝑟𝑠 . 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑠𝑒=8 760− 7787=𝟗𝟕𝟑 h𝑟𝑠

 Example. 4
The monthly readings of a consumer meter are as follows
Max. Demand = 60kW
Energy consumed = 24000 kW-hr
Reactive energy = 15600 kVAR-hr
Determine the load power factor and load factor.

24000 𝑘𝑊 −h𝑟
𝐴𝑣𝑒 . 𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑= =33.33 𝑘𝑊
24 𝑥 30
15600
𝐴𝑣𝑒 . 𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑝𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 = =21.67 𝑘𝑉𝐴𝑅
24 𝑥 30
21.67 −1
𝑡𝑎𝑛 𝜃 = =0.65 , 𝜃 =𝑡𝑎𝑛 ( 0.65 )= 33.02𝑝𝑓 = cos ( 33.02 ) =0.84 °
33.33
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑑 24000 𝑥 100
𝑳 𝒐𝒂𝒅 𝑭𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒐𝒓 = = =𝟓𝟓 . 𝟓𝟓 %
max 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑖𝑛𝑘𝑊𝑥 720 60 𝑥 720