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Chapter-2:

Precipitation

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Lesson Outcome
On completion of this chapter you will be able to
understand and / or identify and / or quantify

– What is precipitation?
– Forms and types of precipitation
– Common processes and terms
associated with precipitation
– Measurement of precipitation
– Factors to be considered when installing
a rain gauge
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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Lesson Outcome

– Adequacy of rain gauge stations


– Rain gauge network selection
– Estimation of missing rainfall data
– Estimating mean precipitation over an
area
– Test for consistency of rainfall records
– Frequency analysis of rainfall

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Precipitation
Precipitation denotes all forms of water that reach
the earth surface from the atmosphere.
The usual forms of precipitation are rainfall,
snowfall, hail, and drizzle.
The magnitude of precipitation varies with space
and time.
 Variation in various regions of a country at a
given time
 Variation at a place in various seasons of the
year
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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Precipitation
Under proper weather conditions, the water
vapor condenses over nuclei to form tiny droplets
of sizes < 0.1 mm in diameter.
Precipitation results when water droplets comes
together and coalesce to form larger drops that
can drop down.

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Precipitation
For precipitation to form:
• The atmosphere must have moisture
• There must be sufficient nuclei present to aid
condensation
• Weather conditions must be good for
condensation of water vapor to take place &
• The product of condensation must reach the
earth
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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Precipitation
Net precipitation at a place and its form depends
upon the weather elements in the volume region
enclosing the clouds and the ground surface at
the given place.
The weather elements are:
• Wind
• Temperature
• Humidity
• Pressure
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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Forms of Precipitation
Some of the common forms of precipitation are:
– Rain
– Snow
– Drizzle
– Glaze
– Sleet
– Hail

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Rain:
• Precipitation in the form of water drops of sizes larger
than 0.5 mm is called rain.
• The term rainfall is commonly used to describe
precipitation in the form of rain.
• The maximum size of a raindrop is 6 mm.
Units:
Intensity: Flux per unit area per unit time.
m3/m2s → cm/h, mm/h, (MKS Unit) or
→ in/h (FPS Unit)
Amount: Flux per unit area.
m3/m2 → cm, mm, or in
VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 9
Chapter-2: Precipitation
Types of Rain
On the basis of intensity rainfall is classified as:

Type Intensity (mm/hr)


Light rain Trace (0.25 mm) to 2.5
Moderate rain 2.5 to 7.5
Heavy rain > 7.5

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Drizzle, Snow, Glaze
Drizzle:
A fine sprinkle of numerous water droplets of sizes less
than 0.5 mm and intensity less than 1 mm/h is know as
drizzle.
Snow:
Snow consists of ice crystals which usually combine to
form flakes.
Glaze:
When rain or drizzle comes in contact with cold ground
at around 0°C the water drop freezes to form an ice
coating called Glaze or Freezing rain.

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Sleet, Hail
Sleet:
It is frozen raindrops of transparent grains which form
when rain falls through air at subfreezing temperature.
In Britain, sleet denotes precipitation of snow and rain
simultaneously.
Hail:
I It is a showery precipitation in the form of irregular
pellets or lumps of ice of size more than 8 mm. Hails
occur in violent thunderstorms in which vertical
currents are strong.

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Some Processes & Terms
associated with Precipitation
Front:
A front is the interface between two distinct
air masses. Under certain favorable
conditions when warmer air mass and cold air
mass meets, the warmer air mass is lifted
over the colder one with the formation of a
front

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Some Processes & Terms
associated with Precipitation
High and Low Pressure
Zones : A A B B

Flow of air associated with


Plan views
high and low pressure
Direction of surface winds
zones in the northern
hemisphere,

– Atmospheric pressure
near the surface of the
earth
Section A-A Section B-B
– Coriolis effect High pressure Low pressure
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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Some Processes & Terms
associated with Precipitation
Cyclone:
A cyclone is a large low pressure region with
circular wind motion. Two types of cyclone are
recognized:

• Tropical cyclone
• Extra tropical cyclone

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Tropical Cyclones:
A tropical cyclone is a wind system with an intensely
strong depression (low pressure) with MSL pressures
sometimes below 915 mbars.
• The normal aerial extent of cyclone is about 100—
200 km in diameter
• The isobars are closely spaced
• The winds are anticlockwise in the northern
hemisphere
• The centre of the storm called the eye, may extend
to about 10—50 km in diameter is relatively quiet
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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Tropical Cyclones:
• Right outside the eye, very strong winds reaching as
much as 200 kmph exists
• The wind speed gradually decreases towards the
outer edge
• The pressure increases outwards
• The rainfall is normally heavy in the entire area
occupied by the cyclone
Tropical Cyclones are also called
• Typhoon in South-East Asia
• Cyclone in Hong Kong, India & Bangladesh and
• Hurricane in USA
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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Tropical Cyclones:

An aerial view of a Tropical Cyclone (‘Kit’, in August of 1985) 35


miles south of Cheju Island, off the southern coast of Korea.

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Tropical Cyclones:

Ground view of a tropical cyclone:


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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Tropical Cyclones:
CL

Rainfall intensity

Wind speed, kmph


1000
Pressure, m bar

980
Pressure 125
Wind speed
960 100
75
940 50
25
920 0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Radial distance, km
Schematic section of a tropical cyclone
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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Tropical Cyclones:
Formation of cyclones:
– During summer months, tropical cyclones originates
in open oceans at around 5-10o Latitude &
– Moves at speed of about 10-30 kmph to higher
latitudes in an irregular paths
– They derive their energy from the latent heat of
condensation of ocean water vapor and increase in
size as they move on oceans
– When they move on land, the source of energy is
cut off and the cyclone dissipates its energy very
fast
– Hence the intensity of the storm decreases rapidly
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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Tropical Cyclones:
The consequences of tropical cyclones are:
• Heavy damage to life & property on their land
path
• Intense rainfall and heavy floods in streams

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Extratropical cyclones:
These are cyclones formed in locations outside
the tropical zone.
• The magnitude of precipitation and wind
velocities are relatively lower than those of
tropical cyclone
• However the duration of precipitation is
usually longer and the aerial extent is larger

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Anticyclones:
• Anticyclones cause clockwise wind
circulations in the northern hemisphere
• These are high pressure regions usually of
large aerial extent
• The weather is usually cam at the centre
• Winds are of moderate speed and at the
outer edges cloudy and precipitation
conditions exist

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Convective Precipitation:
• Due to localized heating, a packet of air mass
may get warmer than the surrounding air. As a
result the air mass rises up because of its
lesser density.
• Air from cooler surroundings flows in to take up
its place, setting up a convective cell.
• The warm air continues to rise, undergoes
cooling and results in precipitation.
• Precipitation from such convective processes
is called convective precipitation.

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Convective Precipitation:
• Depending upon the moisture, thermal and
other conditions light showers to thunderstorm
can be expected in convective precipitation
• Usually the aerial extent of such rains is small,
being limited to a diameter of about 10 km.

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Orographic precipitation:
Moist air masses may get lifted‑up to higher
altitudes due to the presence of mountain
barriers and consequently undergo cooling,
condensation and results in precipitation. Such
precipitation is known as orographic precipitation.

In mountain ranges
• The windward slopes have heavy
precipitation
• The leeward slopes have light precipitation
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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Rainfall Measurements
 Rain gauge
 Radar measurement

Rain gauge:
A rain gauge essentially consists of a cylindrical vessel
assembly kept in the open to collect rain.
Rain gauge is also designated as:
 Pluviometer
 Ombrometer
 Hytemeter
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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Rain gauge:
Rain gauge can be broadly classified into two
categories
 Non-recording rain gauge
 Recording rain gauge
Recording rain gauge:
 Tipping Bucket type
 Weighing bucket type
 Natural siphon type

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Non-recording rain gauge
Principle:
– During rainfall rain passes from
the funnel to the bottle inside the
metal container
– With a measuring cylinder the
volume of water collected is
measured
– The volume of collected water is
divided by the collection area
(funnel area) which gives the
precipitation depth
Drawbacks:
– Bottle fills up quickly during
heavy precipitation & needs
replacement
– Manual operation & tedious for
remote station

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Recording rain gauge
A tipping bucket rain
gauge
Signal / data cable

Spirit level

Plastic casing & Collector


(Standard, 20 cm diameter)

Supporting frame

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Recording rain gauge

Guiding small funnel


Tipping bucket
(0.1 / 0.2 / 0.25 mm)

Water drainage port

A tipping bucket rain


gauge
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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Recording rain gauge
Principle:
– In tipping bucket gauge water caught in the collector
is funneled into a two-compartment bucket (0.25 or
0.1 mm capacity)
– The water fills one compartment and overbalance
the bucket so that it tips, emptying into a reservoir
and moving the second compartment into place
beneath the funnel
– As the bucket is tipped, it actuates an electrical
circuit
– The data logger connected to the gauge records the
date and time of the tip
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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Weighing bucket type rain
gauge
A weighing bucket type
rain gauge Receiver

Bucket
Outer casing
Weighing mechanism

Revolving dram
with paper chart

Pen arm

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Weighing bucket type rain
gauge
Principle:
– In weighing-type gauge the rain or snow
which falls into a bucket set on the platform
of a spring or lever
– The increasing weight of the bucket and its
contents is recorded on a chart

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Natural Siphon type rain
gauges
Principle:
– In natural siphon type rain gauges the rise of a float
with increasing rainfall is recorded on a chart
– In most gauges the float is placed in the receiver,
but in some the receiver rests in a bath of oil or
mercury
– The float measures the rise of the oil or mercury
displaced by the increasing weight of the receiver as
the rainfall catch increases
– The gauges are emptied automatically by self
starting siphon
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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Natural Siphon type rain
gauges

• A typical chart from a natural siphon-type rain gauge


• Total rainfall = 53.8 mm, duration = 30 h
• Vertical lines in the pen-trace correspond to the sudden emptying
of the float chamber by siphon action which resets the pen to
zero level
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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Factors to be considered when
installing a rain gauge:
• The ground must be level and in the open and
the instrument must present a horizontal catch
surface
• The gauge must be set as near the ground as
possible to reduce wind effects but it must be
sufficiently high to prevent splashing, flooding,
etc.
• The instrument must be surrounded by an
open fenced

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Radar measurement of
precipitation:
A radar shot of Tropical
Storm (‘Cary’, in July of
1984)

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Radar measurement of
rainfall:
Radar is a powerful instrument for measuring the aerial
extent, location & movement of rainstorms
• The radar antenna emits a regular succession of
pulse of electromagnetic radiation in a narrow beam
• The beam width and shape are determined by the
antenna size & configuration
• The radiated wave, which travels at the speed of
light, is partially reflected by cloud or precipitation
and returns to the radar where it is received by the
antenna

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Radar measurement of
rainfall:
• The energy returned is called the return power (Pr) and
its display on the radarscope is called an echo
• The brightness of the echo is an indication of the
magnitude of the return power, which in turn is a
measure of the radar reflectivity of the hydrometeorids
• The time interval between the emission of the pulse
and appearance of the echo on the radarscope is a
measure of the distance called the range (r)
• Loss of radar energy due to passage of through
precipitation is called attenuation

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Radar measurement of
rainfall:
• When raindrops intercept a radar beam it has been
empirically found that: CZ
Pr  and Z  aI b
r2
Where
Pr = average echo power
Z = radar-echo factor (mm3/m3)
r = distance to target volume (range)
C = a constant
I = rainfall intensity (mm/h)
a & b = coefficients
Values of a & b have to be determined by calibration with
the help of a recording rain gauge
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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Radar measurement of
rainfall:
• Meteorological radars operate with wave length ranging
from 3 to 10 cm
• For light rain and snow a 5 cm wavelength is used
• For heavy flood producing rains a 10 cm wavelength is used
• The hydrological range of a radar is about 200 km
• A radar can be considered a remote sensing super gauge
covering an aerial extent of 100,000 km 2
• Radar measurements is continuous in space and time
• Present day developments include: (i) On line processing of
radar data on a computer (ii) Doppler type radar for
measuring raindrop size & velocity

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Rain gauge network:
• The catchment area of a rain gauge is very
large to the aerial extent of storms
– To get a representative picture of a storm
over a catchment the number of rain
gauges should be as large as possible

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Rain gauge network:

– On the other hand economic considerations


to a large extent and other considerations
such as topography, accessibility to some
extent restrict the number of gauges to be
maintained
– Hence we aim at an optimum density of
gauges for which reasonably accurate
information about storms can be obtained
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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Rain gauge network:
• The World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
recommend the following densities of rain gauge
network:
– In flat regions of temperate, Mediterranean &
tropical zones:
• Ideal - 1 stations for 600-900 km2
• Acceptable - 1 station for 900-3000 km2

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Rain gauge network:
– In mountainous regions of temperate,
Mediterranean & tropical zones:
• Ideal - 1 station for 100-250 km2
• Acceptable - 1 station for 250-1000 km2
– In arid and polar zones:
• 1 stations for 1500-10,000 km2
• Ten percent of rain gauge stations should be equipped
with self recording gauges to know the intensity of
rainfall

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Adequacy of rain gauge
stations:
N = Optimal number of stations
2 
C  = allowable degree of error in
N  v the estimate of the mean
   rainfall (usually 10% is used)
Cv = Coefficient of variation of the
100   m1 rainfall values at the existing
Cv  m stations (in per cent)
P
m-1 = Standard deviation of
1/ 2 precipitation in the existing
 m 2
  Pi  P   stations

  m = Number of stations
 m 1   i 1 
 m  1 
Pi = Rainfall magnitude in the ith
  station
  = Mean rainfall

P
VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 48
Chapter-2: Precipitation
Exercise-1:

A catchment has six rain gauge stations. In a year, the


annual rainfall recorded by the gauges are shown below.
For a 10% error in the estimation of the mean rainfall,
calculate the optimum number of stations in the
catchment.

Station A B C D E F
Rainfall (cm) 82.6 102.9 180.3 110.3 98.8 136.7

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Solution-1:

Solution:
Here, m6 Cv 
100   m 1
P
P  118 .6
100  35.04
 m 1  35.04   29.54
118 .6
  10  29.54 
2
N    8.7  9 stations (Ans)
 10 

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Estimation of missing
rainfall data:
If the normal annual precipitation at various stations are
within about 10% of the normal annual precipitation at
station X, then a simple arithmetic average procedure is
followed to estimate Px
1
Px  P1  P2  ...  ... Pm 
Where M
P1, P2, P3, ....... Pm = annual precipitation at
neighboring stations 1, 2, 3, M,
respectively
Px = missing annual precipitation at
station X (not included in M
stations)
M = number of neighboringREZAUR,
VAB2063 Hydrology
Chapter-2: Precipitation
stations
R.B. 51
Estimation of missing
rainfall data:
If the normal precipitations vary more than 10%, then Px is
estimated by weighing the precipitation at the various stations
by the ratios of normal annual precipitations. This method is
known as the normal ratio method
N x  P1 P2 Pm 
Px     ...  ..
Where M  N1 N 2 N m 
P1, P2, P3, ..... Pm = annual precipitation at neighboring stations 1, 2,
3, ...... M, respectively
Px = missing annual precipitation at station X (not
included in M stations)
M = number of neighboring stations
N1, N2, N3, ..... Nm = normal annual precipitations at each of the
above (M+1) stations including neighboring station X
VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 52
Chapter-2: Precipitation
Exercise-2:
The normal annual rainfall at stations A, B, C, and D in a
basin are 80.97, 67.59, 76.28 and 92.01 cm respectively.
In the year 1975, the station D was inoperative and the
stations A, B and C recorded annual precipitations of
91.11, 72.23 and 79.89 cm respectively. Estimate the
rainfall at station D in that year.

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Exercise-2:
The normal annual rainfall at stations A, B, C, and D in a
basin are 80.97, 67.59, 76.28 and 92.01 cm respectively.
In the year 1975, the station D was inoperative and the
stations A, B and C recorded annual precipitations of
91.11, 72.23 and 79.89 cm respectively. Estimate the
rainfall at station D in that year.

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Solution-2:
As the normal rainfall values vary more than
10%, the normal ratio method is used

N x  P1 P2 Pm 
Px     ...  ..
M  N1 N 2 N m 
92.01  91.11 72.23 79.89 
PD    
3  80.79 67.59 76.28 
 99.41cm

VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 55


Chapter-2: Precipitation
Estimating Mean
Precipitation Over an Area:
To convert the point rainfall values at various
stations into an average value over the
catchment the following methods are used

• Arithmetical-Mean Method
• Thiessen-Mean Method
• Isohyetal Method

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Arithmetical-Mean Method
P1  P2  ....  Pi  .....  Pn
P
N
1 N
P   Pi
N i 1

Where
P = Mean rainfall over the catchment
P1, P2, Pi, Pn = Rainfall in a given period in stations 1, 2,
…i, …n.
N = Number of rainfall stations
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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Thiessen-Mean Method
P1 A1  P2 A2  ....  Pn An
P
A1  A2  ......  An
N
 Pi Ai
i 1

A
N Ai
  Pi
i 1 A

Where
A = Catchment area
N = Number of rainfall stations
P = Mean rainfall over the
catchment
P1, P2, … Pn = Rainfall in a given period in stations 1, 2, …n
A1, A2, …An = Areas of the Thiessen polygons contributing to stations 1, 2, …n
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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Isohyetal Method
Where
A = Catchment area
P = Mean rainfall over the
catchment
P1, P2, … Pn = values of isohytes
a1, a2, …an = Inter-isohyte area

P P  P P  P P 
a1 1 2   a2  2 3   ....  an1 n1 n 
P 
2   2   2 
A
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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Test for consistency of
rainfall record:
If the conditions relevant to the recording of a
rain gauge station have undergone a significant
change during the period of record
– Inconsistency would arise in the rainfall
data of that station
– This inconsistency would be felt from the
time the significant change took place

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Test for consistency of
rainfall record:
Some of the common causes for
inconsistency of record are:
– Shifting of a rain gauge station to a new
location
– The neighborhood of the station
undergoing a marked change
– Change in the ecosystem due to calamities,
such as forest fires, land slides
– Occurrence of observational errors from a
certain date
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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Procedure for Double–Mass
Curve Analysis
– A group of 5 to 10 base stations in the
neighborhood of the problem station X is selected
– The data of the annual (or monthly mean) rainfall
of the station X and also the average rainfall of the
group of the base station covering a long period is
arranged in the reverse chronological order. (i.e.
the latest record as the first entry and the oldest
record as the last entry in the list).

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Procedure for Double–Mass
Curve Analysis
– The cumulative precipitation at station X (i.e. Px)
and the cumulative of the group of base stations
(i.e. Pav) are calculated starting from the latest
record.
– Values of Px are plotted against Pav for various
consecutive time periods
– A break in the slope of the resulting plot indicates a
change in the precipitation regime of station X

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Procedure for Double–Mass
Curve Analysis
The precipitation values at station X beyond the period of
change of regimes is corrected by using the relation
S1
Pcx  Px
S2
Where,
Pcx = corrected precipitation at any time period t1 at station X
Px = original recorded precipitation at any time period t1 at station X
S2 = corrected slope of the double-mass curve
S1 = original slope of the mass curve

Note: A change in slope is normally taken as significant only where it


persists for more than 5 years.
VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 64
Chapter-2: Precipitation
Procedure for Double–Mass
Curve Analysis

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Chapter-2: Precipitation
Exercise-3:
The table below show the annual catch at gauges A, B, C, and D. Gauge D was
permanently relocated after a period of 7 years (at the end of 1883). Check the
consistency of the rainfall records and do necessary adjustments if required.

Annual catch (in) at gauge Total Cumulative catch (in)


Year A B C D A+B+C A+B+C D Pcx
1977 30 31 27 29 88 88 29
1978 33 36 32 32 101 189 61
1979 26 27 24 28 77 266 89
1980 27 26 27 29 80 346 118
1981 34 34 30 30 98 444 148
1982 31 33 31 29 95 539 177
1983 28 30 24 28 82 621 205
1984 35 34 33 39 102 723 244 35.0
1985 37 39 36 41 112 835 285 36.8
1986 34 35 35 37 104
VAB2063 Hydrology
939 322
REZAUR, R.B.
33.2 66
Chapter-2: Precipitation
Solution-3:
The double mass curve is plotted Corrected values are therefore:
below. The slope of the upper  P1984  0.8973(39)  35
portion of the double-mass curve  P
1985  0.8973( 41)  36.8
is different for the period from  P1986  0.8973(37)  33.2
1984 to 1986.
– The slope for the 1977-1983
period is S1 = 0.3301
– The slope for the 1984-1986
period is S2 = 0.3301
– The equation for adjusting
the upper section of the
curve is
0.3301
Pcx  Px  0.8973Px
0.3679
VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 67
Chapter-2: Precipitation
Frequency of point rainfall:
• In many hydraulic engineering applications such as
those concerned with flood, the probability of
occurrence of an event (e.g. extreme rainfall or 24 h
maximum rainfall) are of importance.
• If the extreme values of a specified event occurring in
each year is listed it constitute an annual series.
• For example, one may list the maximum 24-h rainfall
occurring in a year at a station to prepare an annual
series of 24-h maximum rainfall values.

VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 68


Chapter-2: Precipitation
Frequency of point rainfall:
• The probability of occurrence of an event in this series
is studied by frequency analysis of this annual data
series
• The purpose of the frequency analysis of an annual
series is to obtain a relation between the magnitude of
the event and its probability of exceedence.

VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 69


Chapter-2: Precipitation
Terminology in frequency
analysis:
• The probability of occurrence of an event whose
magnitude is equal to or greater than a specified
magnitude X is denoted by P
• The recurrence interval (or return period) is defined as
T = 1/P

VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 70


Chapter-2: Precipitation
Terminology in frequency
analysis:
• Thus if it is stated that, the return period of a rainfall of
20 cm in 24 h is 10 years at a certain station A, it implies
that:
– On an average rainfall magnitudes equal to or greater
than 20 cm in 24 h occur once in 10 year
– Thus for a long period, say 100 years 10 such events
are expected
– However it does not mean that in every 10 years one
such event is likely, i.e. periodicity is not implied
– The probability of a rainfall of 20 cm in 24 h occurring
in any one year at station A is, 1/T = 1/10 = 0.1

VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 71


Chapter-2: Precipitation
Frequency analysis of
rainfall:
• If the probability of an event occurring is P
• The probability of the event not occurring is, q = (1-P)
• The probability of occurrence of an event r times in n
successive years is expressed by the binomial
distribution as:
Pr , n  n Cr P r q nr
n!
 P r q nr
Where n  r !r!
Pr, n = probability of a random hydrologic event (rainfall) of
given magnitude and exceedence probability P, occurring
r times in n successive years
VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 72
Chapter-2: Precipitation
Frequency analysis of
rainfall:
For example:
• The probability of an event of exceedence probability P
occurring 2 times in n successive years is
n!
P2,n  P 2q n2
n  2!2!
• The probability of the event not occurring at all in n
successive years is
P0,n  q n  1  P n  
• The probability of the event occurring at least once in n
successive years is
P1  1  q n  1  1  P n  
VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 73
Chapter-2: Precipitation
Exercise-4:
Analysis of data on maximum one-day rainfall depth at a
catchment indicated that a depth of 280 mm had a return
period of 50 years. Determine the probability of a one-day
rainfall depth equal to or greater than 280 mm at the
catchment occurring
a. Once in 20 successive years
b. Two times in 15 successive years and
c. At least once in 20 successive years

VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 74


Chapter-2: Precipitation
Solution-4:
Here P = 1/50 = 0.02 (b) n = 15; r = 2
(a) n = 20; r = 1 15!
P2,15  0.022 1  0.02152 
n! r nr
15  2!2!
Pr , n  Pq
n  r !r! 14
 15   0.0004  0.769
2
20!
P1, 20  0.0211  0.02191  0.323
20  1!1!
 20  0.02  0.68123 (c) n = 20
 0.272 P  1  q n  1  1  P n
1

P1  1  1  0.02 20
 0.332
VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 75
Chapter-2: Precipitation
Plotting position:
• The purpose of the frequency analysis of an
annual series is to obtain a relationship
between the magnitude of the event and its
probability of exceedence
• The probability analysis may be made either by
empirical or by analytical methods

VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 76


Chapter-2: Precipitation
Plotting position:
Procedure:
• A simple empirical technique is to arrange the
given annual extreme series in descending
order of magnitude and to assign an order
number m.
• Thus for the fist entry m = 1, for the second
entry m = 2 and so on till the last event for
which m = N (Number of years of record)

VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 77


Chapter-2: Precipitation
Plotting position:
• The probability P of an event equaled to or exceeded is
given by the Weibull formula
 m  .……………………………….. (1)
P 
 N  1
• The recurrence interval is given by
1  N  1
T    …..........………………………
P  m  (2)
• The exceedence probability of an event obtained by
the use of an empirical formula such as Equation (1) is
called Plotting Position

VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 78


Chapter-2: Precipitation
Plotting position Formulae
• The Weibull formula is one of the most popular plotting
position formula
• There are several other such empirical formulae
available to calculate P
Method P
California m/N
Hazen (m0.5)/N
Weibull m/(N+1)
Chegodayev (m0.3)/(N+0.4)
Blom (m0.44)/(N+0.12)
Gringorten (m3/8)/(N+1/4)
VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 79
Chapter-2: Precipitation
Plotting position Formulae
• Having calculated P and T for all events in the series,
the variation of the rainfall magnitude is plotted against
the corresponding T on a semi-log or log-log scale.
• By suitable extrapolation of this plot the rainfall
magnitude of specific duration for any recurrence
interval can be estimated.

VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 80


Chapter-2: Precipitation
Plotting position Formulae
Note:
• Empirical procedure can give good results for small
extrapolations and the errors increase with the amount
of extrapolation.
• For accurate work, various analytical calculation
procedures using frequency factors are available
• Gumbel’s extreme value distribution and Log Pearson
TypeIII method are two commonly used analytical
methods

VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 81


Chapter-2: Precipitation
Exercise-5:
For a station A, the recorded annual 24 h maximum
rainfall are given in below
– Estimate the 24 h maximum rainfall with return
periods of 13 & 50 years
– What would be the probability of a rainfall of
magnitude equal to or exceeding 10 cm occurring
in 24 h at station A
Year 1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60
Rainfall (cm) 13.0 12.0 7.6 14.3 16.0 9.6 8.0 12.5 11.2 8.9 8.9
Year 1961 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71
Rainfall (cm) 7.8 9.0 10.2 8.5 7.5 6.0 8.4 10.8 10.6 8.3 9.5

VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 82


Chapter-2: Precipitation
Solution-5:
The data are arranged in descending order and the
probability & recurrence intervals of various events are
calculated as shown in table in next page (N = 22)

VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 83


Chapter-2: Precipitation
Solution-5:
m Rainfall P= T = 1/P m Rainfall P= T = 1/P
(cm) m/(N+1) (years) (cm) m/(N+1) (years)
1 16.0 0.043 23.00 12 9.0 0.522 1.92
2 14.3 0.087 11.50 13 8.9  
3 13.0 0.130 7.67 14 8.9 0.609 1.64
4 12.5 0.174 5.75 15 8.5 0.652 1.53
5 12.0 0.217 4.60 16 8.4 0.696 1.44
6 11.2 0.261 3.83 17 8.3 0.739 1.35
7 10.8 0.304 3.29 18 8.0 0.783 1.28
8 10.6 0.348 2.88 19 7.8 0.826 1.21
9 10.2 0.391 2.56 20 7.6 0.870 1.15
10 9.6 0.435 2.30 21 7.5 0.913 1.10
11 9.5 0.478 2.09 22 6.0 0.957 1.05

VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 84


Chapter-2: Precipitation
Solution-5:
A graph is plotted between 20
the rainfall magnitudes and 18

Rainfall magnitude (cm)


the return period T on a 16
14
semi-log scale. A smooth
12
curve is drawn through 10
plotted points and the 8
curve is extended by 6

judgment 4
1 10 100
Return period T (years)

VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 85


Chapter-2: Precipitation
Solution-5:
(a) From the graph: 20
– For return period T = 13 18

Rainfall magnitude (cm)


years rainfall magnitude is 16
14.55 cm (Ans) 14
12
– For return period T = 50
10
years rainfall magnitude is
8
18.75 cm
6
(b) From the graph 4
1 10 100
– For rainfall = 10 cm, T =
Return period T (years)
2.4 years and P = 1/T =
0.417

VAB2063 Hydrology REZAUR, R.B. 86


Chapter-2: Precipitation

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