2.

21
H1, H2, H3 denote first, second and third summer is hot respectively
Given: P(H1) = P(H2) = P(H3) = 0.2
P(H2 H1) = P(H3 E2) = 0.4
(a)

P(H1H2H3) = P(H1) P(H2 H1) P(H3 E2)

= 0.2x0.4x0.4
= 0.032

(b)

P( H 2 H 1 ) = ?
Using the hint given in part (d) of P2.20,
P( H 1 ) + P( H 2 ) - P( H 2 H 1 )P( H 1 ) = P( H 1 H 2 ) = 1 P(H1H2) = 1 - P(H2 H1)
P(H1)
we have,
0.8 + 0.8 - P( H 2 H 1 )(0.8) = 1 0.4x0.2
therefore,
P( H 2 H 1 ) = 0.85

(c)

P(at least 1 hot summer)

= 1 P(no hot summers)
= 1 P( H 1 H 2 H 3 )
= 1 P( H 1 )P( H 2 H 1 ) P( H 3 H 2 )
= 1 0.8x0.85x0.85
= 0.422