2.

10 (a) The event both subcontractors will be available = AB, hence since P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB) P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB) = 0.6 + 0.8 - 0.9 = 0.5 (b) P(B is availableA is not available) = P(B A ) =

P( BA ) P( A )

while it is clear from the following Venn diagram that P( BA ) = P(B) - P(AB).

AB

A
Hence

P( BA ) P( B) P( AB) = 1 P( A) P( A )
= (0.8 - 0.5)/(1 - 0.6) = 0.3/0.4 = 0.75 (c) (i) If A and B are s.i., we must have P(BA) = P(B) = 0.8. However, using Bayes rule, P(BA) = P(AB)/P(A) = 0.5/0.6 = 0.8333 So A and B are not s.i. (As being available boosts the chances that B will be available) (ii) From (a), P(AB) is nonzero, hence AB , i.e. A and B are not m.e. (iii) Given: P(AB) = 0.9 AB does not generate the whole sample space (otherwise the probability would be 1), i.e. A and B are not collectively exhaustive.