2.

25
L = Failure of lattice structure
A = Failure of anchorage
Given:

P(A) = 0.006
P(LA) = 0.4
P(AL) = 0.3
Hence, P(L) = P(LA)P(A) / P(AL) = 0.008

(a)

P(antenna disk damage)

= P(AL)
= P(A) + P(L) P(A)P(LA)
= 0.4 + 0.008 - 0.006x0.4
= 0.406

(b)

P(only one of the two potential failure modes)

= P(A L ) + P( A L)
= P( L A)P(A) + P( A L)P(L)(0.008)
= (1-0.4)(0.006) + (1-0.3)(0.008)
= 0.0036 + 0.0056
=0.0092

(c)

P ( A D) =

P( A( A L))
P( A)
0.006
=
=
= 0.0148
P( A L)
P ( A L) 0.406