2.

22
A = Shut down of Plant A
B = Shut down of Plant B
C = Shut down of Plant C
Given: P(A) = 0.05, P(B) = 0.05, P(C) = 0.1
P(BA) = 0.5 = P(AB)
C is statistically independent of A and B
(a)

P(complete backoutA)
= P(BCA)
= P(BA)P(C)
= 0.5x0.1
= 0.05

(b)

P(no power)
= P(ABC)
= P(AB)P(C)
= P(BA)P(A)P(C)
= 0.5x0.05x0.1
=0.00025

(c)

P(less than or equal to 100 MW capacity)

= P (at most two plants operating)
= 1 P(all plants operating)
= 1 P( A B C )
= 1 P( C )P( A B )
= 1 P( C ) [1-{P(A)+P(B)- P(BA)P(A)}]
= 1 0.9[1-{0.05+0.05-0.5x0.05}]
= 0.1675