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  • Calculating probabilities of town flooding events

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    The document defines probabilities of flooding events A, B, and C occurring in three named towns. It provides the individual probabilities of P(A), P(B), P(C) and conditional probabilities P(B|C), P(A|BC), P(AB|C). It then calculates: 1) The probability of a disaster year with all towns flooded, P(ABC), as 0.048 2) The probability of C occurring given B occurred, P(C|B), as 0.2 3) The probability of at least one town flooding, P(A∪B∪C), as 0.19 using De Morgan's rule.

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    2.12

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    The document defines probabilities of flooding events A, B, and C occurring in three named towns. It provides the individual probabilities of P(A), P(B), P(C) and conditional probabilities P(B|C), P(A|BC), P(AB|C). It then calculates: 1) The probability of a disaster year with all towns flooded, P(ABC), as 0.048 2) The probability of C occurring given B occurred, P(C|B), as 0.2 3) The probability of at least one town flooding, P(A∪B∪C), as 0.19 using De Morgan's rule.

    Copyright:

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    5 views1 page

    Calculating probabilities of town flooding events

    Uploaded by

    georgelennon68
    The document defines probabilities of flooding events A, B, and C occurring in three named towns. It provides the individual probabilities of P(A), P(B), P(C) and conditional probabilities P(B|C), P(A|BC), P(AB|C). It then calculates: 1) The probability of a disaster year with all towns flooded, P(ABC), as 0.048 2) The probability of C occurring given B occurred, P(C|B), as 0.2 3) The probability of at least one town flooding, P(A∪B∪C), as 0.19 using De Morgan's rule.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    2.12 Let A,B,C denote the respective events that the named towns are flooded.

    Given probabilities: P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.3, P(C) = 0.1, P(B | C) = 0.6, P(A | BC) = 0.8, P( AB | C ) = 0.9, where an overbar

    denotes compliment of an event.

    (a) P(disaster year) = P(ABC)


    = P(A | BC)P(BC) = P(A | BC)P(B | C)P(C) = 0.80.60.1 = 0.048 (b) P(C | B) = P(BC) / P(B) = P(B | C)P(C) / P(B) = 0.60.10.3 = 0.2 (c) The event of interest is ABC. Since this is the union of many items, we can work with its compliment instead, allowing us to apply De Morgans rule and rewrite as P(ABC) = 1 P( A B C ) = 1 P( ABC ) = 1 P( AB | C )P( C ) = 1 0.9(1 0.1) = 1 0.81 = 0.19 by De Morgans rule,

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