บทความ-การลงทุนและวัฎจักรอสังหาริมทรัพย์ ตอน 1-5

&
( 1)

. (www.M-property.co.th)

()

(--- - --)

( ) ()

53 7.8%

2 (
)
(
)

( )

1

20

4-5

3

180

2533-2536
() 2540
2545 2547

( ) 2540
2540 2541-2542
2

2533-2538 (
)

&

( 2)


20
(
) 2529-2530
2532-2533
2536-2538 ( 8-9% )
( 2534-3535
)
2528
( 2528 =1) 33 2539 2532-2539

2530 200 1.52 2 10

( 3.19 2540 ( 2550 4.18

)
10 33 (3,300%)
2528 1,000 33,000
1 2528-2553 (1985-2010)
Land Price Changes in the BMR 1985-2010
Urbanization

48-53
40
: AREA (www.area.co.th)

50-100% 2558
2539 ( 5.9%)
2540-2541
( -1.4%,-10.5%)
( 90% 10%)
2542-2544 ( 4.4%, 4.8%, 2.2%)

2545 ( 5.3%) 2546-2547 ( 5.3%, 7.1%, 6.3%)
4
( 2536-2538
200,000 300,000 2540-2541
20,000-30,000 50,000-70,000

2548-2550 ( 4.5%,5.0%,4.8%)
2551-2552 (
2.6%,-2.8%) 65,000 59,000 10%
2553
2529-2530, 2540-2541 2551-2552
10-12 1 () 5-7
2-3
10-12

() ()
( )

&

( 3)

2
2539 (1996) 2540
2542-2543 () 26.3 (
20%) 40.2 2553 53% ( 4.8%)
2540
( 1 5
50,000-70,000 300,000 )

NPA
2-3 ()

12 ( 2541
) 117% ( 9.75%)
12 188-233% ( 1619% ) 56%
50% 49% 54% ( 4.5%)

2548 2542

2547
2 2548

(
)
( )

2540
( )

(Fake demand)
13-14%
300,000
200,000 100,000
200,000 (100,000 100,000 )
2540 90% ( 10%)
2-30,000
2551-2552

(
NPL ) 2551-2552
2553

, ,

, , , (-

-),
(
)

2534
2535

&

( 4)

3

2552 2553
7.8% 4-5% 2554 ( 2555)

1.

7

( )

2.
(

)
3.

2555 ()
6.87
5-10%
200,000-300,000 2-3
4. 2558

(
)
(
)
5.

(
6.
( )
)

7.

()
7 8 14
1-2 100,000 200,000

( )

8.

8

9.

(
) ( 2533

)
2548-2553
1:
Macro economic vs Property cycle

300,000
40-41
GDP -10.5%
5-8%
13-15%

160,000
+ 4-500,000
Over supply
46-47
GDP +5-7%
2-3%
2-4%
5-60,000
2-30,000
5-70,000 50,000 ++
250,000
Launch AREA
52
GDP -7.1%(Q1/52)
-1.1%
5-6%
100,000 +
4-50,000

30.0
25.0
20.0
MLR
200,000
15.0
150,000
10.0
GDP
Housing
Register
5.0
100,000
0.0
50,000
-5.0
2537
2538
2539
2540
2541
2542
2543
2544
2545
2546
2547
2548
2549
2550
2551
2552
Q2/2553
Housing Register
136,104
146,735
148,557
121,213
44,338
13,532
15,101
14,341
19,489
37,487
48,441
45,164
49,662
49,769
59,048
69,938
33,994
Launch (AREA)
2522
2523
2524
2525
2526
2527
2528
2529
2530
2531
2532
2533
2534
2535
2536
283,892
190,315
131,815
44,353
3,421
4,149
8,748
14,322
39,833
52,305
68,052
63,579
66,118
81,364
67,791
57,604
43,783
214,275
211,458
99,839
36,957
24,473
19,693
34,244
21,644
38,114
75,718
57,102
53,623
51,564
65,039
65,653
59,085
42,448
116,104
97,382
120,941
156,927
135,875
120,331
94,835
87,513
80,232
56,819
67,769
77,725
92,349
108,674
110,812
109,331
110,666
9.0
9.2
5.9
-1.4
-10.5
4.4
4.8
2.2
5.3
7.1
6.3
4.5
5.0
4.8
2.6
-2.2
GDP

MLR
5.2
4.6
5.9
5.4
5.6
5.8
4.6
5.5
9.5
13.3
12.2
11.2
8.6
8.1
8.3
3.5
9.9
19.7
12.7
5.1
3.7
0.8
2.4
1.9
2.4
3.9
5.3
5.9
5.7
4.1
3.4
5.0
5.7
5.9
5.6
8.0
0.3
1.6
1.6
0.7
1.8
2.7
4.5
4.7
2.3
5.5
-0.9
3.6
14.50
16.50
17.00
16.00
15.50
16.50
15.50
12.00
11.50
12.00
12.50
16.25
14.00
11.50
10.50
11.75
13.75
13.00
15.25
11.75
8.36
7.88
7.25
6.75
5.63
5.63
6.63
7.75
6.99
6.88
6.05
6.05
Housing Register
Launch (AREA)
GDP
MLR

( )

(
)
9
-10.0
&

( 5)

4
2548
3
12-15
23-26 2548 (

)

2-3
( )

1:
10
225,000
214,275
211,458
200,000
15%
16%
175,000
11%
13%
150,000
125,000
42%
40%
99,839
100,000
12%
11%
75,718
75,000
65,039
23%
5%
57,102
6%
2540
50,000
53,623
51,564
18%
31%
36,957
31%
36%
53%
25,000
20%
33%
27%
19,693
10%
44%
57%
37%
26%
54,008
21%
26%
21%
20%
27,004
21,644
31%
32%
11%
27%
28%
24%
24,473
8%
16%
38,114
34,244
18%
14%
36%
32%
65,653
22%
31%
61%
48%
50%
54%
60%
44%
48%
27%
11%
18%
19%
2537
2538
2539
2540
2541
29%
17%
2542
32,998
33,043
12,233
13,161
9,105
8,600
22,967
27,432
11,263
7,326
6,256
1,935
3,321
6,989
10,760
23,397
20,427
9,613
7,060
11,702
13,858
11,468
88,956
84,402
23,256
12,242
4,500
5,726
19,400
10,901
18,123
23,188
17,783
14,669
13,277
10,626
17,834
10,668
69,354
66,581
53,087
4,228
4,612
3,432
4,753
2,792
7,550
12,148
15,291
28,903
30,995
39,580
28,834
25,870
20%
16%
14%
2543
13%
2544
2545
2546
2547
2548
2549
2550
2551
2552
6,770
962
1,681
16,985
3,601
438
232
3,131
5,127
6,002
2
(
)
( )
()

()
11
( )

( 90%) 100%
()
( )
( ) (
) ( )

(Capital Gain)

12

บทความ-การลงทุนและวัฎจักรอสังหาริมทรัพย์ ตอน 1-5

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2530 200 1.52 2 10

Land Price Changes in the BMR 1985-2010

Macro economic vs Property cycle

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