النمــــو السكانـــي والإسقاطــات السكانيــة- د. فريال عبد القادر أحمد- الجهاز المركزي للتعبئة العامة والإحصاء

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1996
59312914 2006
72798031
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)+ 1( =
1.2273555
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72798031
59312914
10
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1.020697
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= 5+ 59312914 )(1.020697
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= 7.817634
65710000 = 2001
2001
65710
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10
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LN
:
72798031
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59312914
1.2273555
10
10
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20486 = 10
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2001
:
0
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)(50.02020486
= 0.10243 + 59312914
.: = 65710000

5 .

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2010 :
0
= 72798031
= 72798031
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= 79016000
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1988
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(
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30076
6
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60
97716 17143
9
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76
11/19
48205
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36626
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96121 59334 68874 4251. 262.4

27
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53
4
33898 12629 47119 17984 686.4
40
71.0
9.87
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4
36791 2027 5411 2242 981.3
36
745.4 30.22 1.45
7
:
981.37= 140992 48.1 + 4 +
)(1
22421.45 = 2027745.4 981.37 + 48.1 +
)(2
541130.22 = 43679136 22421.45 + 981.37 +
)(3
) 48.1 (1 ) 4 (2 :
2313.61 + 192.4 +
4720.90 = 6781715.2
)(4
89685.80 = 8110981.6
)(5
3925.48 + 192.4 +
) (4 ) (5 :
42481.90 = 1329266.4 1611.87 +
)(6
) 981.37 (1 ) 4 (2 :
963087.08 = 138365319 47203.90 + 3925.48 +
)(7
2164520.88 = 174716544 89685.80 + 3925.48 +
)(8
) (7 ) (8 :
1201433.80 = 36351225 42481.90 +
)(9
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1201433.80 = 37593083 45585.42 +
)(10
) (9 ) (10 :
3103.52 = 1241858
= 400.145
.:
) (6 :
= 42481.90 644981.7 +
1329266.4
42481.90 = 684284.7 .:
= 16.1077
.:
) (1 :
= 4 + 19246.97 + 15807.61
140992
4 = 105937.42
.: 26484.355
.: :
= 16.1077
400.145 + 26484.355 +
1988
9/1960 ) 7/1988 27.83(.
2
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(27.83) 400.145 +
26484.355
1988 50096
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10.
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(SPSS
2
Collinearity
.
1976
1986
1996
36626
48205
59313
200
400
100
100
2006
72798
10
100
:
= 1243.9 4.8 + 59740 + 2
R2 = 0.99
2008 :
59740 + (144 4.8) + (12 1243.9) = 2008
59740 +
691.2 +
= 14926.8
= 75358
2008 75358000
-2

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2006
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1960 1947 1937 1927

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1960
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1927
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1947
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100
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13
1927
1937
1947
1960
100
100
100
100

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1927
1937
1947
7.14
8.49
10.52
4.02
3.97
3.80
1960
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12.64
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37 60
47 60
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47

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1937
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1947
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1960
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15

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47 37 47
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1927
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1937
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1947
6.15
1960
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1960
16

1
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1 ..... 2 1965

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2011 2010
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1
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50
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17
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1
-1961
1
1
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1
=
/
//
-1963
//
1///
-1964
1
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1
1
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50
50
50
50

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1 ) = 0.03 -
( )+ 1

0.97 = (1
1
50
= 0.0006-
1
1
50
+ 1) .:(1 /
0.0294 - = 0.0006 + 0.0300 - = 1

= 0.9706 .
1 )+1
(1
1965
= 100
.
= .100
-3 1965 .
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1965

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18
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1937
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1960
7.55
8.23
10.91
12.84
4.23
4.46
4.99
5.81
1.46
1.63
2.36
2.81
1.20
1.29
1.36
1.49
7.67
7.73
7.66
7.72
7.50
7.31
7.11
6.98
4.11
4.01
3.77
3.79
3.42
3.46
3.59
3.73
7.70
7.26
6.83
6.57
7.50
7.00
5.91
5.17
6.70
6.52
6.38
6.46
4.18
4.37
4.44
5.12
4.25
4.18
3.82
3.30
3.91
3.78
3.52
3.22
20

7.24
7.12
6.67
5.98
5.63
5.63
5.44
5.10
6.83
7.02
6.75
6.05
6.36
6.39
5.82
5.18
1.89
1.92
1.53
1.48
0.67
0.39
1.14
1.20
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(
21
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1.01862
1.01204
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1.01887
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1.00644
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0.99249
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0.98918
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0.99422
0.99319
0.99341
0.00012 +
0.99431
0.99259
0.99192
0.00011 +
0.99705
0.99580
0.99522
0.00006 +
0.99368
0.99190
0.00013 +
0.99110
0.99138
0.00017 +
1.01204
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22
1.01692
1.02296
0.100380
0.00008 -
)(
.

1965
13.60
13.54
6.08
6.05
2.99
2.98
1.53
1.52
7.73
7.69
6.93
6.90
3.79
3.77
3.78
3.76
6.48
6.45
4.93
4.91
23
6.60
6.57
5.27
5.25
3.18
3.17
3.13
3.11
5.82
5.80
5.03
5.01
5.83
5.80
4.97
4.95
1.57
1.56
1.22
1.21
100.46
100.00
)
(
24

النمــــو السكانـــي والإسقاطــات السكانيــة- د. فريال عبد القادر أحمد- الجهاز المركزي للتعبئة العامة والإحصاء

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النمــــو السكانـــي والإسقاطــات السكانيــة- د. فريال عبد القادر أحمد- الجهاز المركزي للتعبئة العامة والإحصاء

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96121 59334 68874 4251. 262.4

0.0294 - = 0.0006 + 0.0300 - = 1

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