NG DNG PHN MM CRYSTAL BALL TRONG GING DY

MN XC SUT THNG K
Ths Trn Minh Tm
1. t vn
S bng n cng ngh thng tin ang tc ng mnh m vo s pht
trin ca tt c cc ngnh trong i sng x hi. Trong bi cnh , nu mun
gio dc i hc p ng c mong mun ca x hi, chng ta nht thit phi
ci cch phng php dy v hc theo hng ng dng cng ngh thng tin v
cc trang thit b dy hc hin i pht huy mnh m t duy sng to, k nng
thc hnh v hng th hc tp ca sinh vin nng cao cht lng dy hc.
Mn Xc sut thng k c nh gi l mt mn kh vi c ngi dy
ln ngi hc. Cu hi t ra l: lm th no vic dy v hc mn Xc sut
thng k tr nn thun li hn? hiu qu hn?
Vi cng c Crystal Ball, ta c th minh hot cc phn phi xc sut ca
bin ngu nhin v m phng d liu thc hnh thng k theo mt phn phi
cho trc trong mn hc xc sut thng k. Vi kh nng ny, Crystal Ball l
cng c rt tt, gip cho gio vin v sinh vin thun li trong vic nghin cu
v hc tp mn xc sut thng k.
2. ng dng phn mm Crystal Ball trong ging dy mn xc sut thng k
Trong nm hc 2012 2013, ti nghin cu v ng dng phn mm
Crystal Ball m t th phn phi xc sut ca bin ngu nhin, xc nh
phn phi xc sut t s liu thc nghim v m phng d liu thc hnh thng
k theo mt phn phi cho trc trong ging dy mn hc xc sut thng k.
2.1 Gii thiu v Crystal Ball
Crystal Ball l mt chng trnh phn tch ri ro v d bo vi giao din
ngi dng rt thn thin v d s dng. Crystal Ball s dng cc th trong
phn tch v minh ha cc bo co nhm gip loi tr cc yu t bt nh khi ra
quyt nh. Thng qua sc mnh m phng, Crystal Ball tr thnh cng c
hiu qu trong tay ca nhng ngi ra quyt nh. Vi cng c Crystal Ball, ta
c th minh hot cc phn phi xc sut ca bin ngu nhin v m phng
d liu thc hnh thng k theo mt phn phi cho trc trong mn hc xc
sut thng k.
Crystal Ball rt d hc v s dng, bt u bn ch cn to mt bng
tnh mi v lp m hnh bi ton trn , sau thc hin mt s khai bo cc
0

thng s cho chng trnh v bt u m phng. K thut m phng ny gi l

m phng Monte Carlo, Crystal Ball s d bo ton b dy kt qu c th ca
mt tnh hung cho trc v ng thi cung cp thm cc thng tin v mc tin
cy ca d bo , do ta c th d on c kh nng xut hin ca mt s
kin no .
2.2 M t thi phn phi xc sut: M t th phn phi xc sut gip
sinh vin quan st c th phn phi xc sut ca bin ngu nhin mt cch
trc quan.
Cc bc m t thi phn phi xc sut vi Crystal Ball nh sau:
Bc 1. M chng trnh Crystal Ball

Hnh 1: Giao din chng trnh Crystal Ball

Bc 2. Nhp chut vo nt Define Assumption t ngn Crystall Ball | nhm
Define, ca s Distribution Gallery xut hin

Hnh 2: Ca s Distribution Gallery

Bc 3. Chn kiu phn phi v nhp nt OK

Hnh 3: Chn dng phn phi chun

Bc 4. Khai bo thm gi tr trung bnh v lch chun.

Hnh 4:Kkhai bo cc tham s ca phn phi chun

Bn hon tt vic m t bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun vi Crystal Ball
2.3 Tm hiu v thi phn phi xc sut t s liu thc nghim: Tm hiu
v thi phn phi xc sut ca bin ngu nhin t s liu thc nghim c
th pht hin quy lut phn phi xc ca n.
Gi s ta c s liu thc nghim ca bin ngu nhin X nh sau: ( n = 750)
0.60
1.88
0.78
4.00
1.60
3.93
5.05
2.64
3.67
0.21
1.39
2.55
7.88
4.18
0.01
0.03
0.18
3.88
3.20
2.33
1.66
1.94
0.10

0.72
1.16
1.04
2.53
2.87
0.45
2.24
4.40
0.02
0.40
2.88
1.07
1.54
0.87
1.44
2.31
1.33
2.67
0.16
1.84
2.90
1.04
1.89

2.72
1.33
1.94
6.18
0.09
0.53
0.14
2.91
1.80
1.64
0.50
4.29
1.67
1.28
0.11
2.27
0.41
0.90
0.65
0.98
0.28
0.13
3.87

2.29
1.89
0.54
3.93
1.32
1.87
0.52
4.62
6.30
0.23
0.68
0.43
2.79
0.82
1.35
1.58
1.08
1.20
5.33
1.79
1.91
2.20
1.46

0.17
0.17
0.03
1.38
1.62
0.94
0.06
1.34
0.47
2.58
0.68
8.20
7.48
1.81
3.44
3.46
0.31
2.48
1.00
0.57
0.10
3.37
2.34

0.78 2.54 1.83 0.08 2.94 1.24 3.85 1.21 0.71

0.42 2.95 1.70 8.56 1.54 2.35 6.40 2.88 1.40
0.92 1.01 3.97 3.42 7.06 0.93 0.06 2.71 1.76
0.93 2.82 0.45 2.11 2.70 1.71 0.77 0.70 4.04
1.04 1.33 1.86 1.95 3.96 0.57 0.13 0.01 5.68
0.60 0.73 1.72 1.45 1.40 2.48 3.10 6.52 0.87
0.95 2.61 6.02 1.33 1.69 3.12 1.20 0.04 0.55
0.31 0.26 0.32 1.17 0.33 1.63 0.58 0.87 0.01
3.02 0.82 0.12 1.19 6.80 2.18 0.37 1.27 2.52
8.27 4.66 6.49 1.35 0.61 6.16 0.09 0.04 0.05
3.68 10.02 2.33 3.54 3.53 5.09 1.02 0.35 1.17
0.71 3.70 1.34 0.25 0.66 1.83 2.96 2.35 2.75
1.66 2.01 1.53 1.61 3.27 1.48 0.45 0.22 0.32
1.23 0.17 2.53 1.06 0.31 0.05 2.61 3.97 1.14
0.77 0.24 0.09 1.19 2.00 1.35 4.71 3.35 4.22
3.39 0.38 1.09 0.55 1.90 1.78 1.29 1.74 1.20
1.15 1.17 1.90 0.17 4.77 1.85 1.69 0.42 2.95
3.14 0.22 2.15 2.14 3.16 1.66 1.07 0.46 1.59
0.37 0.81 0.80 1.19 0.59 1.22 0.26 4.53 1.69
0.71 2.66 0.43 4.21 0.02 2.71 1.46 17.77 1.72
1.47 3.49 0.68 0.04 3.94 4.67 1.39 0.56 1.52
0.23 0.25 0.30 8.02 0.71 2.02 0.47 2.49 1.92
3.13 1.13 0.03 3.20 3.28 3.89 5.01 0.34 2.19

0.10
1.59
1.74
6.18
0.51
0.16
4.51
0.68
2.79
0.22
1.15
1.07
6.54
3.09
0.58
0.84
2.51
0.60
2.73
0.76
0.52
6.07
1.73
3

0.13
2.15
0.02
0.20
5.86
0.36
2.82
3.70
0.23
0.42
3.23
0.62
1.42
7.20
1.28
0.16
0.44
0.38
2.05
1.03
0.09
1.45
0.06
0.44
7.31
0.37
1.29

6.94
3.92
5.29
0.22
0.53
2.72
0.51
0.48
0.32
2.36
1.31
0.79
0.03
2.43
0.33
0.04
1.74
4.27
3.91
1.15
2.08
0.46
2.87
1.15
1.59
1.70
0.51

2.17
1.46
1.15
2.04
2.21
1.10
0.85
1.72
4.68
1.68
1.87
2.72
2.37
2.08
4.38
5.20
0.25
3.63
1.57
0.75
6.21
0.16
5.15
3.43
2.03
2.16
1.86

2.34
1.06
4.30
0.25
0.04
3.32
2.68
0.65
1.76
3.19
0.07
1.06
1.21
0.36
0.33
0.37
0.09
9.56
5.75
5.06
1.20
3.86
1.92
0.33
0.38
0.56
0.48

0.27
0.12
0.40
0.03
0.79
1.42
0.70
0.02
0.06
0.61
0.32
0.59
3.08
6.33
0.07
3.33
3.37
0.96
0.21
0.35
5.13
3.73
0.71
0.13
4.66
1.75
2.88

0.62
1.33
0.30
1.77
0.91
0.98
0.95
2.57
0.07
0.22
7.87
1.33
2.31
1.15
3.77
0.83
1.19
1.70
0.52
0.32
3.92
4.79
2.36
8.82
1.77
0.58
4.52

4.12
2.55
0.27
2.48
5.47
0.87
1.13
1.05
2.65
0.94
0.37
1.79
1.09
0.65
1.21
3.44
0.52
2.35
3.91
0.25
2.58
0.15
0.54
0.29
2.05
1.19
0.04

0.54
0.25
0.39
1.45
0.89
0.17
2.37
0.19
0.77
2.52
3.67
1.02
0.43
4.33
1.65
0.03
3.39
1.41
0.72
1.41
5.85
1.55
1.76
2.06
1.05
0.60
0.46

0.85
0.24
1.48
7.69
0.56
5.43
5.34
0.16
2.80
0.33
0.17
1.57
1.23
3.60
4.58
3.99
0.08
1.15
1.06
2.05
2.26
0.02
2.03
4.43
2.04
1.71
0.47

0.87
0.73
0.16
2.29
1.08
0.85
0.07
0.22
2.81
0.50
0.08
1.80
0.44
1.55
0.12
1.35
4.03
1.20
1.35
2.69
0.85
1.81
0.99
3.16
1.17
3.31
1.47

6.64
5.40
8.10
0.12
2.65
0.33
1.58
1.55
1.04
0.91
0.21
0.45
2.92
0.50
2.10
1.11
2.41
8.01
1.39
0.04
0.53
1.01
1.41
0.75
0.26
1.01
6.64

1.14 4.70 5.16

4.11 1.81 1.24
0.10 1.41 2.66
0.35 0.08 0.58
0.71 0.54 6.35
1.75 1.52 1.44
4.67 6.30 9.94
0.13 0.99 3.12
1.03 0.47 2.22
1.57 2.43 1.12
4.23 0.18 0.43
3.28 0.04 3.51
0.96 10.47 1.24
1.23 0.32 0.38
1.47 0.49 1.27
0.03 0.24 0.23
1.74 9.17 1.08
3.41 1.88 1.98
1.20 11.46 4.00
1.58 4.84 5.26
0.62 0.40 0.25
1.47 1.49 0.95
7.47
3.11 1.14
1.23 1.74 0.33
1.40 2.30 0.69
1.11 5.32 0.24
1.22 3.43 1.79

4.40
0.14
1.41
3.85
0.31
4.76
1.08
0.50
0.83
0.37
3.45
2.19
0.79
0.27
0.99
0.54
0.59
0.94
0.69
0.27
5.89
0.73
2.46
2.19
0.83
4.19
1.89

Bc 1: M file d liu vi chng trnh Crystal ball

Bc 2. Nhp chut vo nt Define Assumption t ngn Crystall Ball | nhm
Define, ca s Distribution Gallery xut hin
Bc 3. T ca s Distribution Gallery, chn Fit

Hnh 5: Chn Fit t ca s Distribution Gallery

4

Bc 4. T ca s Fit Distribution, nhp vng s liu vo Range, chn dng

kim nh (Chi Square), nhp OK

Hnh 6: Ca s Fit Distribution

Kt qu m t phn phi xc sut t s liu thc nghim.

Hnh 7: Ca s kt qu phn phi xc sut

2.4 M phng s liu thc nghim theo phn phi xc sut: M phng s liu
thc nghim theo phn phi xc sut nhm to ra s liu thc hnh o gip
ging vin c t liu hng dn phn thc hnh thng k.
Bc 1: M chng trnh Crystal ball
Bc 2. Chn Insert Function, chn Crystal Ball or select a category, chn
dng phn phi, nhp OK

Hnh 8: Ca s Insert Function

Bc 3. T ca s Function Arguments, khai bo cc tham s ca phn phi,
nhp OK

Hnh 9: Ca s Function Arguments, vi phn phi chun

3. Kt lun
- Phn mm Crystal Ball l cng c rt tt, gip cho gio vin v sinh vin
thun li trong vic nghin cu v hc tp v phn phi xc sut ca bin
ngu nhin v m phng d liu thc hnh thng k trong ging dy v
hc tp mn xc sut thng k. T gp phn nng cao hiu qu dy v
hc mn Xc sut thng k.
- Phn mm Crystal Ball cn rt nhiu tin ch c th tip tc nghin cu
p dng trong dy v hc cc mn hc c lin quan.
Ti liu tham kho
[1] www.giaiphapexcel.com
[2] inh Vn Gng, 2007, L thuyt xc sut v thng k, NXB Gio dc.